DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 09/29 Atkins_VA 2558ft pt29724@36.958,-81.342,2720ft SPONSORED BY: Randy Newberry BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.5 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.7 - - 64.2 - - 69.8 - - 70.3 - - 63.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 141 - - 156 - - 60 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 258 - - 259 - - 3519 - - 259 - - 259 BL Depth Hcrit 2799 - - 2800 - - 4625 - - 2801 - - 2801 Hcrit BL Top 2816 - - 2817 - - 6077 - - 2817 - - 2817 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 237 - - 3065 - - 3210 - - 6320 - - 2257 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 139 - - 348 - - 108 - - 17 W* B/S 0 - - 15 - - 9 - - 4 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 7 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 084 - - 288 - - 320 - - 316 - - 324 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 0 - - -2 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -837 - - 592 - - -2703 - - -767 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2816 - - 3654 - - 5485 - - 5520 - - 3584 sfcLCL ODpotential -3489 - - -1342 - - -688 - - -3527 - - -3298 ODpotential blCL 6305 - - 4159 - - 6765 - - 6344 - - 6115 blCL maxRH 97 - - 94 - - 81 - - 82 - - 72 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 60 - - 100 - - 110 - - 90 CAPE Temp@2m 52.7 - - 64.2 - - 69.8 - - 70.3 - - 63.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 52.3 - - 57.7 - - 55.3 - - 55.7 - - 57.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.0 - - 62.6 - - 68.1 - - 69.2 - - 65.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 52.8 - - 57.1 - - 54.2 - - 54.7 - - 57.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 141 - - 156 - - 60 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 258 - - 259 - - 3519 - - 259 - - 259 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 86 - - 74 - - 22 - - 28 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 11 - - 9 - - 10 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98073 19 250 12 223 23 226 21 232 19 274 98073 90718 20 260 12 231 18 221 24 245 22 252 90718 85052 16 272 15 246 12 245 19 241 18 253 85052 80351 10 236 11 231 12 244 13 245 10 270 80351 76321 6 245 5 216 8 220 11 239 7 278 76321 72774 1 281 1 152 7 223 11 224 4 278 72774 69565 3 249 3 071 5 208 8 235 5 297 69565 66617 8 253 2 046 2 203 5 256 9 308 66617 63889 8 266 3 296 4 232 7 254 13 293 63889 61252 11 277 6 284 8 225 11 238 14 265 61252 58501 17 262 13 275 13 262 14 258 16 270 58501 55647 19 261 17 265 18 262 18 263 21 264 55647 52924 21 263 25 265 23 263 20 261 24 260 52924 50472 27 264 30 258 26 263 24 259 27 261 50472 48267 34 265 32 255 32 271 29 270 24 274 48267 46261 40 259 37 252 38 268 34 275 32 284 46261 44427 36 254 35 254 37 274 36 278 36 277 44427 42735 35 264 39 263 41 273 40 285 36 283 42735 41165 42 266 40 260 41 266 43 283 40 290 41165 39698 43 268 39 276 35 279 41 283 40 288 39698 38318 42 275 42 285 39 288 39 283 38 293 38318 36988 44 280 44 285 42 291 38 283 37 297 36988 35642 46 282 45 286 41 298 38 287 38 295 35642 34251 45 284 46 290 42 304 38 294 36 292 34251 32818 43 289 45 294 42 309 38 304 32 297 32818 31328 42 296 44 300 42 312 38 311 31 308 31328 29768 47 304 43 303 40 313 38 313 33 315 29768 28141 43 307 45 310 37 309 38 316 35 318 28141 26446 34 304 42 316 37 310 38 316 36 322 26446 24687 24 298 33 315 39 321 36 319 34 324 24687 22866 21 283 23 314 35 322 34 327 29 321 22866 20977 20 274 17 311 25 314 30 326 26 319 20977 19015 16 279 15 280 19 306 25 315 25 322 19015 17020 16 279 18 272 18 296 19 311 23 325 17020 15103 15 276 15 280 17 290 15 311 19 326 15103 13361 12 263 11 277 13 290 16 317 19 333 13361 11815 12 247 9 257 9 283 14 315 14 330 11815 10448 12 246 9 256 8 290 11 299 9 299 10448 9234 13 261 11 270 7 304 9 296 8 283 9234 8150 14 272 11 286 8 313 8 310 7 293 8150 7183 14 275 12 296 7 317 7 317 6 302 7183 6325 14 279 12 297 7*320 7 319 6 311 6325 5562 12 283 9 301 8*321 8 320 6 320 5562 4874 9 284 7 304 7 321 8 319 8 327 4874 4262 6 283 4 296 7 321 8 319 9 331 4262 3748 3 268 3 292 7 320 8 318 9 333 3748 3352 2 173 3 289 7 320 8 317 9 333 3352 3078 5 137 2 287 6 320 7 317 8 331 3078 2912 4*103 2*289 6 319 7*316 6*328 2912 2817 3*084 2*288 5 319 5*316 4*324 2817 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography