DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/16 Atkins_VA 2558ft pt29724@36.958,-81.342,2720ft SPONSORED BY: Randy Newberry BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.5 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 1007z - - 1332z - - 1559z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.5 - - 48.4 - - 53.0 - - 52.5 - - 45.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 206 - - 275 - - 97 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 226 - - 1876 - - 3063 - - 3620 - - 226 BL Depth Hcrit 2767 - - 3527 - - 4501 - - 4384 - - 2768 Hcrit BL Top 2784 - - 4434 - - 5621 - - 6178 - - 2784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1446 - - 561 - - 625 - - 1039 - - 2696 Hgt.Variab. W* 24 - - 302 - - 393 - - 296 - - 17 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 18 - - 20 - - 19 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 312 - - 323 - - 336 - - 349 - - 355 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 13 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -8 - - -9 - - -9 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -265 - - 401 - - 501 - - 724 - - -1096 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3049 - - 4033 - - 5120 - - 5455 - - 3880 sfcLCL ODpotential -832 - - -8809 - - -7470 - - -168 - - -2553 ODpotential blCL 3616 - - 13243 - - 13091 - - 6346 - - 5337 blCL maxRH 99 - - 97 - - 89 - - 89 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.5 - - 48.4 - - 53.0 - - 52.5 - - 45.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.9 - - 40.5 - - 40.3 - - 38.5 - - 38.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.8 - - 46.7 - - 51.0 - - 51.4 - - 45.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.8 - - 39.9 - - 39.4 - - 37.7 - - 38.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 206 - - 275 - - 97 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 226 - - 1876 - - 3063 - - 3620 - - 226 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 96 - - 88 - - 55 - - 57 - - 31 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98017 10 261 12 244 13 282 2 253 14 241 98017 91129 8 279 7 249 9 259 6 262 7 291 91129 85687 7 280 5 243 6 225 11 269 12 309 85687 81093 7 297 5 250 3 266 11 269 14 296 81093 77112 9 305 6 236 5 267 8 267 12 297 77112 73586 8 301 7 242 9 252 9 263 11 314 73586 70374 8 270 8 246 11 253 12 247 12 309 70374 67411 12 244 11 256 13 265 13 249 17 271 67411 64684 17 231 18 257 17 259 16 253 20 239 64684 62059 20 226 24 247 23 245 21 252 20 238 62059 59314 25 232 32 246 32 239 29 245 26 246 59314 56465 34 241 41 246 39 240 40 238 39 244 56465 53756 45 244 47 241 47 242 49 240 51 239 53756 51332 51 238 52 235 56 241 58 243 59 239 51332 49161 52 231 56 232 64 237 66 243 64 241 49161 47186 52 228 60 232 69 233 72 244 66 243 47186 45370 55 229 65 232 73 234 77 245 68 246 45370 43686 61 232 70 233 78 238 81 245 71 249 43686 42117 68 236 74 236 83 241 84 245 76 250 42117 40649 75 239 80 240 87 241 87 244 82 250 40649 39266 80 238 85 240 89 240 90 242 88 249 39266 37932 83 235 86 238 91 238 92 241 90 248 37932 36579 83 234 83 234 91 235 89 240 88 247 36579 35179 81 232 80 231 91 235 85 240 85 245 35179 33733 80 229 78 231 87 234 80 240 82 245 33733 32224 77 227 77 232 82 233 78 239 81 244 32224 30636 74 227 77 234 78 231 78 239 79 243 30636 28969 72 230 76 234 75 232 77 240 77 242 28969 27219 70 234 75 232 74 234 74 240 72 243 27219 25392 67 236 71 233 72 237 70 242 67 246 25392 23490 63 235 64 235 69 240 64 244 57 253 23490 21515 60 234 58 239 63 242 59 247 48 266 21515 19463 53 238 51 242 57 242 54 251 41 277 19463 17373 45 244 44 242 51 242 48 258 32 290 17373 15357 37 249 37 243 43 244 41 264 30 311 15357 13524 33 254 31 247 38 254 35 272 31 328 13524 11899 29 258 28 258 35 265 31 282 31 339 11899 10460 26 264 26 270 31 271 28 291 29 348 10460 9188 23 273 25 276 25 278 28 308 28 354 9188 8065 23 280 24 279 23 293 27 326 26 356 8065 7077 25 280 23 284 22 318 25 342 25 355 7077 6213 25 274 21 300 24*335 23*348 24 352 6213 5455 21 278 22 317 23*337 22*349 24 352 5455 4777 19 301 23*324 22 337 21 349 22 355 4777 4179 20 317 21*324 21 336 20 349 21 357 4179 3680 18 318 20 324 20 335 19 349 20 358 3680 3298 17 317 18 323 18 335 18 349 18 359 3298 3035 14 316 16 323 16 334 16 349 14 359 3035 2875 12*314 14 322 14 334 14 348 11*358 2875 2784 7*312 10 322 11 333 10 348 4*355 2784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography