DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/05 Atkins_VA 2558ft pt29724@36.958,-81.342,2720ft SPONSORED BY: Randy Newberry BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.5 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 28.8 - - 38.9 - - 47.7 - - 43.7 - - 37.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 6 - - 60 - - -7 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 257 - - 257 - - 258 - - 257 - - 257 BL Depth Hcrit 2798 - - 2798 - - 2799 - - 2798 - - 2798 Hcrit BL Top 2815 - - 2815 - - 2816 - - 2815 - - 2815 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 109 - - 591 - - 2108 - - 1331 - - 609 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 53 - - 107 - - 38 - - 20 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 7 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 144 - - 158 - - 171 - - 156 - - 128 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -631 - - -321 - - -1596 - - -725 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3446 - - 3136 - - 4412 - - 3540 - - 2815 sfcLCL ODpotential -12444 - - -8803 - - -7414 - - -8310 - - -8592 ODpotential blCL 15259 - - 11618 - - 10230 - - 11125 - - 11407 blCL maxRH 76 - - 84 - - 86 - - 85 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 28.8 - - 38.9 - - 47.7 - - 43.7 - - 37.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.0 - - 35.3 - - 38.2 - - 38.1 - - 35.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 32.9 - - 38.6 - - 46.8 - - 43.4 - - 38.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 25.0 - - 34.8 - - 37.1 - - 37.6 - - 35.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 6 - - 60 - - -7 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 257 - - 257 - - 258 - - 257 - - 257 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 3 - - 36 - - 46 - - 39 - - 99 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95931 75 259 84 255 76 252 71 249 81 257 95931 88722 57 258 59 255 59 259 54 253 59 257 88722 83146 48 258 43 261 44 257 47 254 45 258 83146 78533 38 262 28 268 31 253 35 256 38 262 78533 74577 32 268 25 289 21 265 27 259 32 269 74577 71103 34 277 29 282 25 269 24 251 26 253 71103 67960 38 272 33 276 25 270 21 271 21 276 67960 65063 38 273 33 275 28 272 26 279 26 274 65063 62361 44 277 39 270 40 270 39 271 29 286 62361 59754 47 274 48 269 51 265 45 273 51 280 59754 57054 54 286 55 281 51 274 62 263 54 265 57054 54251 69 286 64 281 61 278 61 279 62 285 54251 51590 82 291 73 286 77 287 87 290 81 286 51590 49201 95 288 92 289 98 285 101 284 90 285 49201 47050 104 283 103 285 106 277 103 281 100 284 47050 45090 104 280 110 275 103 273 104 279 102 280 45090 43294 102 284 103 273 99 276 102 276 98 277 43294 41640 108 293 97 283 101 281 99 276 92 276 41640 40106 126 297 112 291 107 283 103 278 91 275 40106 38678 128 294 120 290 108 282 106 276 97 273 38678 37343 128 292 121 289 107 282 106 275 87 268 37343 36055 129 291 117 288 106 284 105 276 85 267 36055 34746 122 290 102 283 99 281 97 276 90 269 34746 33390 100 285 91 277 92 275 90 272 84 270 33390 31991 83 275 88 276 89 271 85 272 74 268 31991 30536 76 273 82 276 84 273 75 275 69 268 30536 29015 70 276 72 276 72 274 64 274 63 272 29015 27429 65 285 64 278 66 273 59 275 60 275 27429 25780 62 288 59 282 59 276 51 282 52 275 25780 24069 58 288 55 283 49 284 43 283 46 273 24069 22300 46 280 55 276 42 284 40 277 37 272 22300 20467 33 267 43 267 41 280 43 276 36 275 20467 18564 29 261 38 264 43 275 45 276 41 277 18564 16629 26 261 33 259 42 267 44 274 39 269 16629 14767 22 266 26 252 37 269 38 273 33 258 14767 13074 20 262 24 246 28 264 30 273 30 253 13074 11568 21 256 24 247 24 254 24 267 28 255 11568 10226 24 250 23 249 24 251 21 252 22 249 10226 9028 23 247 21 249 23 248 22 244 20 241 9028 7960 20 247 19 248 21 245 22 242 22 239 7960 7011 18 248 17 246 20 241 21 238 24 236 7011 6173 16 245 15 240 20 234 17 228 21 227 6173 5432 14 238 12 230 18 223 14 218 17 222 5432 4768 13 226 12 218 16 209 16 199 17 211 4768 4180 14 213 13 210 15 189 19 181 23 189 4180 3691 17 195 16 190 13 178 17 168 26 172 3691 3317 19 180 16 177 13 175 16 164 21 161 3317 3060 16 174 11 167 12 174 14 161 14 147 3060 2904 10*165 8*163 10*172 11*159 10*140 2904 2815 4*144 5*158 7*171 7*156 5*128 2815 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography