DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/30 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 45.0 - - 55.3 - - 50.1 - - 36.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 101 - - 164 - - 11 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 699 - - 1229 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3805 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4102 - - 4632 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 472 - - 1132 - - 1161 - - 249 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 171 - - 242 - - 49 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 37 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 076 - - 006 - - 346 - - 327 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2597 - - -4236 - - -4908 - - -1631 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6699 - - 8868 - - 8465 - - 5187 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11975 - - -11283 - - -12949 - - -12932 ODpotential blCL - - - 16077 - - 15915 - - 16506 - - 16488 blCL maxRH - - - 79 - - 82 - - 83 - - 59 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 45.0 - - 55.3 - - 50.1 - - 36.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 28.5 - - 29.2 - - 26.0 - - 26.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 44.1 - - 53.9 - - 49.8 - - 40.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 28.6 - - 29.2 - - 25.9 - - 26.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 101 - - 164 - - 11 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 699 - - 1229 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 17 - - 30 - - 30 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96791 7 011 5 336 11 335 9 337 96791 89706 5 009 11 322 13 347 9 015 89706 84203 10 284 16 324 12 360 7 338 84203 79617 12 334 13 326 14 342 9 348 79617 75650 10 316 12 330 15 324 13 348 75650 72127 9 002 7 329 10 309 13 340 72127 68921 16 336 13 324 16 331 19 332 68921 65971 16 311 12 319 16 319 20 316 65971 63241 25 312 21 322 21 330 18 337 63241 60589 35 307 32 321 30 326 27 351 60589 57805 37 308 36 313 39 321 36 334 57805 54906 37 308 39 312 39 314 43 322 54906 52142 36 309 40 310 37 315 46 313 52142 49668 41 305 40 315 44 320 45 314 49668 47464 44 299 49 310 52 325 41 327 47464 45465 52 295 55 305 57 320 50 337 45465 43641 60 289 61 298 61 316 59 331 43641 41970 63 287 61 294 60 314 58 331 41970 40417 66 286 63 287 53 311 54 329 40417 38963 66 286 68 280 47 311 48 332 38963 37596 66 286 68 278 45 314 48 335 37596 36285 62 286 66 277 44 316 58 336 36285 34967 59 288 59 277 43 309 57 335 34967 33614 54 286 51 277 40 288 54 335 33614 32223 48 280 49 279 42 280 50 337 32223 30778 42 281 48 276 40 285 41 343 30778 29270 37 283 43 268 38 294 32 326 29270 27705 35 285 37 268 38 293 42 312 27705 26082 33 289 34 276 38 285 41 319 26082 24406 30 292 29 284 33 284 35 311 24406 22679 27 292 24 294 29 283 32 301 22679 20892 27 294 22 292 23 283 27 296 20892 19039 24 299 20 285 18 284 21 290 19039 17158 20 299 18 280 15 279 14 276 17158 15346 15 299 14 274 14 271 12 271 15346 13696 11 301 10 265 12 261 13 280 13696 12224 8 285 9 260 11 258 15 286 12224 10908 6 248 9 258 10 268 15 287 10908 9730 6 213 9 252 11 277 13 286 9730 8679 9 182 10 230 12 275 10 283 8679 7742 12 168 11 205 12 262 7 264 7742 6913 11 158 11 184 8 237 6 220 6913 6177 11 158 10 159 5 182 9 181 6177 5515 11 170 7 134 3 152 9 169 5515 4928 10 175 4*086 3 021 3 165 4928 4438 6*163 5*017 8 352 4 341 4438 4062 2*124 5 008 9 348 8 338 4062 3803 1 065 5 002 8 347 10 335 3803 3646 1 043 5 001 8*347 7 331 3646 3556 1 033 5 359 6*346 5*327 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography