DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/08 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.2 - - 50.4 - - 51.8 - - 49.3 - - 45.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 13 - - 47 - - -9 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 1700 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 5103 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 381 - - 3067 - - 1963 - - 2471 - - 1083 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 52 - - 179 - - 10 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 12 - - 24 - - 11 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 200 - - 241 - - 250 - - 239 - - 229 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -6 - - -2 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -239 - - -1291 - - 160 - - -763 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3797 - - 4848 - - 4943 - - 4320 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -4406 - - -2699 - - -833 - - -2415 - - -2783 ODpotential blCL 7963 - - 6256 - - 5936 - - 5972 - - 6340 blCL maxRH 82 - - 99 - - 99 - - 98 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.2 - - 50.4 - - 51.8 - - 49.3 - - 45.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.2 - - 41.7 - - 42.6 - - 42.8 - - 42.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.6 - - 50.2 - - 51.3 - - 49.5 - - 47.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.4 - - 41.6 - - 42.5 - - 42.8 - - 42.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 13 - - 47 - - -9 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 1700 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 29 - - 97 - - 97 - - 92 - - 79 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96469 28 068 23 079 24 073 21 059 24 066 96469 89411 22 053 22 086 21 078 21 078 15 072 89411 83926 16 061 15 061 14 037 19 037 15 037 83926 79332 20 049 18 058 10 032 22 036 20 035 79332 75339 21 047 21 045 14 352 24 010 29 020 75339 71784 19 019 23 019 10 021 23 012 25 007 71784 68564 5 013 23 357 15 358 9 006 10 013 68564 65592 18 016 30 355 27 007 14 019 15 014 65592 62820 38 321 36 331 34 342 28 332 24 346 62820 60146 37 304 31 308 33 322 25 325 25 324 60146 57371 27 333 21 320 27 317 27 332 27 325 57371 54489 31 334 22 332 34 316 43 320 36 319 54489 51750 47 321 38 322 43 319 47 314 41 312 51750 49296 57 312 53 315 50 314 52 317 45 315 49296 47127 65 310 60 313 54 314 66 312 63 315 47127 45209 63 307 64 319 69 318 71 309 69 308 45209 43486 64 331 76 325 79 320 70 310 69 313 43486 41899 92 344 83 328 83 324 68 315 76 321 41899 40408 94 341 85 329 77 324 69 312 74 317 40408 38996 87 338 80 329 66 325 71 308 73 314 38996 37657 77 337 70 328 67 319 73 305 75 311 37657 36361 71 330 58 327 67 313 74 305 73 308 36361 35048 63 323 59 320 65 312 72 305 73 304 35048 33691 61 317 60 319 65 313 70 306 70 304 33691 32295 63 315 57 320 65 312 69 307 67 304 32295 30845 58 312 56 321 64 309 69 307 64 304 30845 29332 48 305 59 321 61 308 68 308 62 305 29332 27758 48 299 60 321 56 308 66 308 61 306 27758 26125 56 301 57 317 51 309 63 307 58 308 26125 24435 62 305 54 312 48 308 59 306 55 309 24435 22693 61 306 53 308 49 305 57 305 53 309 22693 20891 57 303 55 306 51 302 56 304 53 308 20891 19025 52 298 56 300 52 302 56 304 52 305 19025 17128 47 293 55 294 51 303 56 304 51 300 17128 15304 42 287 51 291 51 303 53 303 50 295 15304 13647 39 283 46 292 49 301 51 301 49 292 13647 12174 38 283 43 291 46 301 48 300 50 291 12174 10865 38 283 41 288 44 299 46 299 53 290 10865 9698 38 283 42 282 42 294 44 296 54 287 9698 8657 38 280 42 278 41 284 42 290 54 283 8657 7732 37 277 41 276 40 274 40 281 51 278 7732 6912 36 274 40 271 38 268 38 271 47 272 6912 6183 35 271 37 266 36 263 35 261 43 267 6183 5526 34 267 34 259 33*258 33 252 39 260 5526 4940 32 263 31 251 29*253 31 246 35 254 4940 4449 27 257 27 245 26 250 28 242 31 248 4449 4070 20 254 23 243 24 249 24 241 25 247 4070 3808 14 249 20 242 22 249 20 240 18 245 3808 3648 8*232 17*241 20 249 17*240 14*243 3648 3557 5*200 12*241 15 248 11*239 6*229 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography