DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 34.8 - - 52.3 - - 65.0 - - 64.0 - - 49.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 179 - - 235 - - 24 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1082 - - 2221 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3738 - - 4663 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4485 - - 5624 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 222 - - 695 - - 2326 - - 2690 - - 486 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 239 - - 333 - - 64 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 21 - - 32 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 202 - - 097 - - 035 - - 359 - - 279 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -7 - - 5 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -1827 - - -4627 - - -6442 - - -1705 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 6313 - - 10251 - - 10001 - - 5263 sfcLCL ODpotential -10570 - - -8990 - - -9434 - - -11602 - - -8815 ODpotential blCL 14126 - - 13475 - - 15058 - - 15160 - - 12372 blCL maxRH 89 - - 66 - - 63 - - 80 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 34.8 - - 52.3 - - 65.0 - - 64.0 - - 49.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.2 - - 37.2 - - 32.5 - - 32.7 - - 38.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 38.1 - - 50.9 - - 63.3 - - 63.5 - - 52.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.9 - - 37.1 - - 32.4 - - 32.7 - - 38.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 179 - - 235 - - 24 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1082 - - 2221 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 55 - - 0 - - 0 - - 18 - - 36 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97567 9 349 2 177 11 257 9 306 8 319 97567 90316 3 257 7 210 18 269 18 316 7 348 90316 84706 10 348 1 269 7 261 10 287 16 288 84706 80065 16 298 15 309 7 341 1 313 15 276 80065 76056 15 267 17 273 16 293 12 319 11 302 76056 72480 14 293 14 255 20 266 22 282 24 284 72480 69234 24 290 17 275 18 274 22 269 25 272 69234 66246 26 271 20 276 19 276 22 266 25 271 66246 63471 27 276 21 268 23 269 28 270 27 271 63471 60781 31 277 20 268 24 260 30 261 31 262 60781 57977 38 276 30 277 28 273 31 264 28 260 57977 55077 41 270 41 270 40 268 38 267 35 260 55077 52325 45 273 44 268 42 264 44 267 43 262 52325 49855 48 275 50 278 51 269 52 269 51 264 49855 47635 50 277 58 275 58 267 61 265 58 261 47635 45611 52 279 56 272 58 263 64 260 63 258 45611 43748 50 284 54 279 55 269 65 263 67 259 43748 42024 50 287 56 282 58 276 63 268 68 259 42024 40423 50 283 54 280 59 276 59 271 61 260 40423 38940 50 279 51 277 50 269 54 272 55 264 38940 37565 46 278 49 278 48 264 49 267 48 262 37565 36259 44 281 45 280 47 262 48 264 45 260 36259 34953 44 281 43 284 44 262 45 263 44 260 34953 33608 45 280 42 286 43 265 44 266 43 261 33608 32225 45 279 41 286 42 267 41 264 42 257 32225 30788 45 280 40 286 38 267 44 259 41 254 30788 29288 42 284 38 287 35 265 43 259 41 254 29288 27726 37 283 33 287 33 264 40 259 40 254 27726 26105 34 278 29 276 31 262 38 257 39 251 26105 24426 33 276 28 272 31 261 36 257 38 250 24426 22692 31 277 28 271 29 262 31 258 35 252 22692 20900 28 276 27 267 27 259 28 255 34 253 20900 19044 26 275 25 262 26 252 26 249 32 251 19044 17161 24 275 23 259 24 248 25 246 29 246 17161 15351 22 274 20 255 21 246 23 244 26 240 15351 13706 20 269 17 251 19 244 23 242 26 240 13706 12243 19 264 17 248 20 243 24 241 27 240 12243 10939 20 262 17 247 21 242 23 236 26 236 10939 9772 20 259 18 246 21 240 19 224 21 229 9772 8726 19 255 18 244 18 233 15 218 17 228 8726 7791 17 248 16 238 14 217 12 215 14 231 7791 6958 13 237 13 225 10 200 8 207 10 222 6958 6217 9 215 9 200 7*187 4 191 6 215 6217 5548 6 179 8 167 3*157 1 079 3 257 5548 4954 5 146 7*150 2 055 6 015 6 316 4954 4457 3 143 4*127 2 029 10 004 9 335 4457 4075 1 187 2 096 3 018 11 001 10 332 4075 3810 2 240 2 077 3 014 10 000 9 320 3810 3649 3 221 2 073 3 013 10*359 7 294 3649 3557 3*202 2 065 3 011 8*359 5*279 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography