DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/13 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.7 - - 53.4 - - 52.9 - - 46.4 - - 41.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -66 - - 45 - - 56 - - -4 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2278 - - 3306 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 4466 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5681 - - 6709 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2085 - - 3122 - - 2971 - - 4128 - - 3756 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 195 - - 241 - - 38 - - 18 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 15 - - 33 - - 30 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 186 - - 194 - - 252 - - 182 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 21 - - 19 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -15 - - -13 - - 0 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1655 - - -846 - - 814 - - -438 - - -355 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5212 - - 6528 - - 5895 - - 3995 - - 3912 sfcLCL ODpotential -6566 - - -2191 - - -373 - - -1482 - - -1923 ODpotential blCL 10123 - - 7872 - - 7082 - - 5039 - - 5480 blCL maxRH 89 - - 91 - - 96 - - 100 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 10 - - 140 - - 80 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 47.7 - - 53.4 - - 52.9 - - 46.4 - - 41.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.8 - - 36.6 - - 38.8 - - 40.7 - - 36.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.4 - - 53.0 - - 52.5 - - 46.4 - - 42.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.8 - - 36.6 - - 38.5 - - 39.7 - - 35.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -66 - - 45 - - 56 - - -4 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2278 - - 3306 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 55 - - 64 - - 83 - - 101 - - 80 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96119 17 302 17 330 2 314 12 317 9 297 96119 89086 6 316 8 321 5 341 7 321 7 343 89086 83627 4 332 2 068 11 285 13 309 12 357 83627 79069 10 329 4 026 5 273 7 282 13 331 79069 75127 11 284 4 295 4 320 5 344 8 323 75127 71635 4 301 9 211 9 282 8 301 14 356 71635 68444 9 272 4 202 10 294 9 306 15 339 68444 65477 12 289 9 248 14 255 13 286 19 294 65477 62707 11 271 8 264 14 250 15 274 23 276 62707 60010 27 246 15 266 12 261 10 277 18 274 60010 57181 32 236 23 253 13 257 11 291 13 287 57181 54217 23 239 22 243 24 269 28 274 20 298 54217 51363 29 266 29 239 29 258 31 257 31 278 51363 48789 39 244 26 231 26 240 29 246 32 268 48789 46486 33 228 23 229 22 233 27 242 28 258 46486 44401 31 231 26 227 24 233 24 243 25 256 44401 42494 42 235 33 224 31 236 27 246 24 263 42494 40734 59 225 43 225 40 233 34 245 24 265 40734 39099 66 214 57 215 49 227 41 238 26 261 39099 37574 59 205 69 201 56 215 45 225 29 249 37574 36152 55 193 74 185 63 196 49 209 32 237 36152 34800 62 186 73 181 73 184 53 195 34 225 34800 33453 62 187 67 182 77 182 66 185 37 211 33453 32086 61 192 70 191 76 186 83 179 44 195 32086 30710 61 196 74 193 70 184 84 180 62 183 30710 29311 61 198 72 191 64 180 74 175 77 177 29311 27871 62 198 69 190 63 182 67 177 73 174 27871 26385 64 198 65 190 62 187 66 186 64 178 26385 24850 65 197 62 192 63 193 63 191 56 185 24850 23267 66 194 59 193 63 198 56 195 55 195 23267 21637 64 191 56 194 58 199 53 194 48 191 21637 19953 61 189 55 194 53 198 53 192 40 191 19953 18212 58 191 54 195 50 200 54 197 33 197 18212 16446 55 197 54 200 54 204 50 201 26 206 16446 14751 55 206 57 208 59 204 40 203 23 218 14751 13207 57 212 61 212 61 205 31 202 21 231 13207 11829 60 214 64 211 59 206 29 201 19 238 11829 10596 64 213 64 208 57 206 27 203 18 244 10596 9491 69 210 62 206 53 206 23 206 19 250 9491 8500 71 207 58 205 49 205 20 213 22 254 8500 7613 71 204 54 203 44 203 18 222 25 255 7613 6824 67 201 48 199 40*201 17 230 26 253 6824 6120 61 197 43*194 36*198 17 236 26 249 6120 5482 55 192 40*190 34 196 17 240 23 244 5482 4912 49 186 36 188 32 195 17 245 20 239 4912 4433 42 180 34 185 30 193 16 247 16 234 4433 4061 36 175 32 184 28 192 16 250 12 228 4061 3804 30 172 29 183 26 191 15 251 8 213 3804 3646 25*170 26 182 23 191 13*252 6*198 3646 3557 15*166 19 181 17 191 10*252 4*182 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography