DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/19 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 74.9 - - 82.2 - - 80.4 - - 72.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 543 - - 358 - - 25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4561 - - 7216 - - 5846 - - 2219 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6656 - - 8871 - - 7595 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top - - - 7964 - - 10619 - - 9249 - - 5622 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1533 - - 1339 - - 2104 - - 2713 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 520 - - 652 - - 529 - - 159 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 11 - - 7 - - 2 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 11 - - 14 - - 15 BL Wind Direction - - - 305 - - 297 - - 308 - - 325 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 12 - - 11 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - 18 - - 13 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2946 - - -1543 - - -1671 - - -3573 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10910 - - 12162 - - 10921 - - 9195 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8529 - - -5547 - - -4822 - - -8321 ODpotential blCL - - - 16493 - - 16166 - - 14071 - - 13943 blCL maxRH - - - 63 - - 75 - - 64 - - 69 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 74.9 - - 82.2 - - 80.4 - - 72.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.3 - - 40.8 - - 44.6 - - 44.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 72.2 - - 78.9 - - 78.1 - - 72.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 39.2 - - 40.7 - - 44.6 - - 44.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 543 - - 358 - - 25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 4561 - - 7216 - - 5846 - - 2219 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99600 30 111 28 106 30 107 22 103 99600 92076 21 116 26 105 25 107 20 102 92076 86249 17 116 22 106 20 108 15 090 86249 81418 14 119 14 104 15 102 12 081 81418 77267 17 108 11 117 8 100 15 077 77267 73602 14 093 15 111 9 120 10 077 73602 70286 10 095 10 113 6 105 9 067 70286 67238 7 085 5 074 6 105 7 066 67238 64420 9 023 6 015 7 037 6 044 64420 61690 7 302 6 002 6 036 2 126 61690 58851 6 289 12 298 14 315 11 319 58851 55915 7 234 15 254 9 294 10 299 55915 53106 21 308 17 292 24 302 22 304 53106 50581 33 291 30 288 35 295 32 305 50581 48333 33 288 36 286 38 290 37 299 48333 46307 37 290 37 290 38 290 41 290 46307 44459 39 295 40 299 40 295 42 290 44459 42763 46 306 46 301 44 300 42 296 42763 41198 51 309 49 302 45 301 41 300 41198 39736 48 309 45 303 43 302 41 305 39736 38364 43 309 42 300 40 304 40 306 38364 37042 39 306 41 298 39 306 39 305 37042 35703 35 305 38 299 39 305 39 301 35703 34319 33 305 36 301 39 305 39 298 34319 32894 31 305 34 300 39 305 41 297 32894 31416 31 303 33 301 38 304 42 297 31416 29873 33 299 32 303 36 301 41 297 29873 28269 32 297 32 302 36 295 40 296 28269 26602 29 296 32 296 37 293 40 299 26602 24877 28 295 33 290 37 294 40 302 24877 23099 31 293 34 290 36 294 38 301 23099 21263 35 296 35 292 35 293 35 297 21263 19366 36 299 35 296 35 292 33 295 19366 17444 33 296 32 296 34 290 32 295 17444 15597 30 289 30 290 31 287 29 294 15597 13919 30 285 29 284 27 285 25 291 13919 12425 29 285 25 276 21 276 20 283 12425 11093 26 287 16*268 16 265 18 272 11093 9902 21 288 14*270 14*268 16 265 9902 8837 14*286 13 273 14*275 14 267 8837 7886 8*287 12 281 14 285 13 276 7886 7041 7 291 11 297 14 300 13 290 7041 6287 7 299 10 305 15 311 13*306 6287 5606 6 306 10 312 16 316 15*319 5606 4999 6 312 10 317 16 319 15 324 4999 4489 6 318 10 321 16 321 16 326 4489 4094 6 323 10 324 16 322 15 327 4094 3821 6 324 10 326 16 323 15 328 3821 3654 6 325 10 326 15 324 14 329 3654 3559 6 325 9 327 13 324 11 330 3559 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography