DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/10 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1556z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 43.5 - - 47.8 - - 48.4 - - 40.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 265 - - 299 - - 107 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2998 - - 4248 - - 5192 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 5280 - - 6272 - - 6406 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6401 - - 7651 - - 8595 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1917 - - 2016 - - 1345 - - 4732 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 384 - - 448 - - 341 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 13 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 10 - - 11 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 351 - - 334 - - 007 - - 018 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -7 - - 6 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -221 - - 578 - - -46 - - -3366 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6622 - - 7073 - - 8641 - - 6923 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1120 - - -180 - - -2976 - - -7641 ODpotential blCL - - - 7521 - - 7831 - - 11571 - - 11197 blCL maxRH - - - 78 - - 94 - - 79 - - 81 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 43.5 - - 47.8 - - 48.4 - - 40.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 26.7 - - 29.0 - - 22.7 - - 22.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 41.6 - - 45.7 - - 47.5 - - 41.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 26.7 - - 29.0 - - 22.7 - - 22.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 265 - - 299 - - 107 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2998 - - 4248 - - 5192 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 14 - - 77 - - 17 - - 22 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97871 6 230 8 303 11 316 9 282 97871 90604 9 306 3 071 4 301 9 279 90604 84937 3 283 7 318 10 323 7 330 84937 80232 6 057 3 192 7 310 11 328 80232 76211 11 000 7 013 1 123 3 324 76211 72648 6 104 6 310 8 331 4 012 72648 69412 15 358 9 041 9 016 8 334 69412 66450 22 322 19 020 14 048 6 355 66450 63697 15 310 22 323 22 344 20 003 63697 61020 12 355 19 297 24 296 24 331 61020 58211 23 343 16 307 21 299 19 310 58211 55264 31 320 24 319 24 304 25 318 55264 52427 37 314 31 319 30 314 35 312 52427 49863 43 311 39 316 39 310 38 302 49863 47556 47 307 44 309 42 307 35 296 47556 45450 49 301 48 305 42 303 33 297 45450 43510 48 300 48 301 41 299 37 304 43510 41713 48 302 46 298 40 299 41 301 41713 40044 49 299 45 296 42 301 38 298 40044 38483 49 292 46 294 46 298 35 299 38483 37019 47 282 47 290 48 295 36 301 37019 35620 42 276 48 280 49 289 38 298 35620 34222 40 276 46 272 52 282 41 292 34222 32800 42 273 44 271 54 273 44 284 32800 31357 44 272 49 273 56 266 47 272 31357 29876 46 273 54 272 59 260 50 257 29876 28352 48 275 57 268 65 255 53 249 28352 26790 49 277 60 261 71 252 57 249 26790 25189 50 278 63 256 75 249 59 246 25189 23547 50 278 63 254 73 247 52 243 23547 21865 50 276 60 254 64 247 43 245 21865 20138 49 270 54 253 54 246 36 248 20138 18358 46 266 47 252 45 247 29 252 18358 16560 38 261 39 257 32 251 18 255 16560 14835 33 263 31 265 19 262 12 255 14835 13266 28 269 22 276 13 277 9 251 13266 11867 21 273 15 289 8 283 7 239 11867 10617 15 282 12 297 5 295 5 219 10617 9503 12 304 8 306 6*347 0 006 9503 8509 11 330 7*311 9*360 6 010 8509 7621 12 350 7*315 10 000 9 010 7621 6830 10*354 8 328 11 006 12 016 6830 6123 8*354 9 334 12 007 14 022 6123 5483 6 352 10 337 13 008 16 023 5483 4912 5 351 11 337 13 009 17 022 4912 4431 5 349 11 338 13 009 18 021 4431 4060 4 349 11 338 13 010 17 020 4060 3803 4 350 11 338 12 010 14 020 3803 3646 4 349 11 338 12 010 10 019 3646 3556 4 349 10 338 10 010 6*018 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography