DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 12/10 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.1 - - 53.5 - - 59.6 - - 53.6 - - 46.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 13 - - 86 - - -19 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 2858 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 3541 - - 4557 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 6261 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 424 - - 2177 - - 1172 - - 2977 - - 1188 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 53 - - 259 - - 8 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 9 - - 21 - - 6 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 218 - - 248 - - 270 - - 267 - - 216 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 7 - - 1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -125 - - -1996 - - -1747 - - -2823 - - -464 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3682 - - 5554 - - 8008 - - 6380 - - 4021 sfcLCL ODpotential -9055 - - -9148 - - -8284 - - -10371 - - -8383 ODpotential blCL 12612 - - 12705 - - 14545 - - 13928 - - 11940 blCL maxRH 77 - - 76 - - 67 - - 69 - - 68 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.1 - - 53.5 - - 59.6 - - 53.6 - - 46.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.5 - - 41.6 - - 37.1 - - 38.2 - - 40.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.1 - - 53.3 - - 58.9 - - 55.0 - - 49.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.9 - - 41.4 - - 36.9 - - 38.2 - - 40.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 13 - - 86 - - -19 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 2858 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 8 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96528 42 039 36 012 34 021 37 003 38 348 96528 89546 31 032 25 035 22 023 27 009 24 356 89546 84057 17 039 18 058 21 032 25 013 22 014 84057 79435 18 035 16 071 15 026 18 029 16 018 79435 75438 19 008 21 051 12 008 20 019 18 019 75438 71905 17 016 13 018 15 349 19 012 20 019 71905 68703 17 346 11 004 14 341 19 360 17 001 68703 65760 21 352 22 356 17 350 13 358 17 355 65760 63021 26 332 29 337 23 339 29 336 30 341 63021 60371 25 310 26 324 27 325 34 326 36 325 60371 57634 16 303 21 302 20 309 27 307 31 313 57634 54815 24 326 25 316 23 322 14 311 28 320 54815 52112 43 324 42 319 38 329 34 333 38 324 52112 49662 55 316 50 318 49 318 54 313 45 317 49662 47465 57 308 56 312 56 309 63 305 52 309 47465 45485 55 308 60 302 60 299 67 297 59 302 45485 43694 57 314 60 300 58 295 63 292 62 296 43694 42058 64 314 61 305 58 298 60 290 63 288 42058 40543 67 307 63 305 61 297 61 288 65 284 40543 39121 65 303 62 298 62 293 62 285 66 284 39121 37777 61 300 60 292 61 288 62 281 64 283 37777 36477 56 296 57 289 60 284 61 279 63 283 36477 35160 50 295 56 289 59 282 60 279 63 282 35160 33798 46 297 55 291 57 282 57 281 61 282 33798 32398 44 294 54 293 54 283 54 283 58 281 32398 30948 46 289 53 295 51 282 51 282 55 278 30948 29436 49 288 52 295 49 282 48 278 54 276 29436 27865 50 292 50 294 48 283 46 274 54 276 27865 26234 52 300 48 294 47 286 44 270 53 276 26234 24545 55 305 46 296 45 286 42 268 51 275 24545 22798 55 306 45 297 44 285 39 268 49 275 22798 20987 53 303 44 295 42 282 38 268 47 278 20987 19112 50 301 43 290 41 278 38 268 46 283 19112 17208 48 299 42 285 40 276 39 271 45 288 17208 15380 46 298 40 282 39 275 40 276 46 291 15380 13719 44 298 38 283 39 278 41 280 46 292 13719 12241 42 298 37 284 40 281 42 283 45 292 12241 10924 40 297 37 286 41 283 42 285 44 292 10924 9747 39 296 37 287 42 284 41 286 42 291 9747 8696 37 293 38 285 42 282 39 284 39 289 8696 7760 35 288 40 280 39 278 36 281 37 286 7760 6931 34 279 40 274 34*275 32 275 35 282 6931 6195 33 269 38 268 27*271 28 268 32 276 6195 5534 32 260 34 263 23 270 24 263 29 268 5534 4946 31 253 27 256 21 270 20 262 26 260 4946 4453 29 246 22 253 20 270 18 263 23 253 4453 4072 24 243 18 251 19 271 15 265 19 247 4072 3809 17 242 14 249 18 271 12 267 14 243 3809 3649 12 239 12 248 16 271 10 268 10 235 3649 3557 5*218 9*248 13 271 6*267 6*216 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography