DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.4 - - 49.6 - - 50.8 - - 50.9 - - 43.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -16 - - 2 - - 2 - - -2 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 275 - - 1265 - - 3061 - - 4657 - - 205 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 35 - - 38 - - 0 - - 14 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 189 - - 238 - - 302 - - 146 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -3 - - 0 - - 1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1384 - - -1300 - - -1173 - - -1599 - - -505 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4942 - - 4857 - - 4730 - - 5157 - - 4062 sfcLCL ODpotential -7626 - - -4517 - - -2996 - - -3136 - - -3752 ODpotential blCL 11183 - - 8074 - - 6553 - - 6693 - - 7309 blCL maxRH 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 88 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 45.4 - - 49.6 - - 50.8 - - 50.9 - - 43.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.9 - - 40.3 - - 42.0 - - 40.2 - - 38.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.9 - - 49.5 - - 50.7 - - 51.6 - - 45.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.5 - - 39.7 - - 41.1 - - 39.5 - - 37.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -16 - - 2 - - 2 - - -2 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 98 - - 102 - - 54 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96732 27 061 31 051 30 063 30 059 21 053 96732 89725 21 054 18 055 28 057 23 060 29 054 89725 84246 17 072 15 073 13 028 20 050 22 054 84246 79640 17 069 15 066 3 043 14 028 21 048 79640 75623 13 039 15 053 8 105 9 011 19 040 75623 72034 5 359 13 026 9 078 5 335 15 019 72034 68768 6 213 6 341 7 004 2 001 10 352 68768 65765 5 224 6 245 10 299 5 327 9 339 65765 62977 9 268 13 217 16 257 8 330 6 318 62977 60259 17 263 20 230 23 254 9 303 8 292 60259 57408 26 251 23 239 24 243 14 253 12 250 57408 54444 28 232 24 235 24 230 22 233 20 243 54444 51601 28 226 26 229 24 224 25 235 24 239 51601 49041 27 215 25 231 23 225 24 236 20 234 49041 46768 21 213 24 232 19 226 21 228 17 248 46768 44720 18 226 20 231 19 227 17 220 21 245 44720 42844 16 234 22 228 21 232 18 227 18 221 42844 41116 14 223 22 225 23 236 23 236 15 203 41116 39521 18 226 19 223 22 226 27 222 20 224 39521 38045 21 224 16 231 21 217 26 213 29 211 38045 36682 31 219 22 231 20 220 23 212 33 194 36682 35392 36 209 28 221 22 218 24 214 36 197 35392 34098 36 213 35 217 26 216 26 210 37 203 34098 32764 34 215 35 212 29 215 27 205 37 201 32764 31393 29 218 34 214 31 209 30 200 37 196 31393 29974 26 224 33 214 30 209 31 203 36 194 29974 28502 23 220 31 206 30 208 27 206 33 199 28502 26976 21 208 27 198 29 207 24 210 33 207 26976 25398 17 202 23 192 26 210 21 216 31 214 25398 23770 18 202 22 200 22 212 19 218 27 213 23770 22090 20 197 21 211 21 213 19 214 26 206 22090 20354 18 198 19 218 21 211 22 213 24 201 20354 18554 17 212 17 219 20 215 24 214 24 201 18554 16730 15 215 16 211 19 228 22 215 24 210 16730 14984 14 198 15 209 17 233 19 231 23 222 14984 13400 15 190 16 226 15 230 21 246 22 239 13400 11990 13 204 17 234 14 236 20 248 22 249 11990 10729 12 228 12 235 14 246 18 256 19 252 10729 9599 12 238 7 212 14 257 17 266 16 251 9599 8588 11 243 7 195 12 272 17 270 15 248 8588 7684 9 247 7 209 12 282 16 270 15 244 7684 6880 8 250 9 239 12 283 14 267 15 242 6880 6162 8 249 13 253 13 278 12 267 15 239 6162 5512 7 242 15 255 13 273 11 268 14 237 5512 4933 8 228 16 250 12 269 9 272 13 236 4933 4445 9 204 14 242 9 266 7 278 10 231 4445 4067 14 181 11 230 6 260 5 286 6 207 4067 3807 14 171 8 209 4 252 4 295 6 164 3807 3648 9*164 6*195 3*244 3*301 6*147 3648 3557 5*162 4*189 2*238 2*302 5*146 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography