DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/25 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 27.1 - - 29.6 - - 43.5 - - 42.0 - - 32.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - -1 - - 96 - - -1 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3539 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3539 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 3556 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 94 - - 231 - - 1663 - - 1074 - - 167 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 0 - - 101 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 195 - - 180 - - 256 - - 271 - - 168 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 0 - - 0 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5366 - - -6420 - - -7570 - - -5476 - - -3241 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8923 - - 9976 - - 11127 - - 9033 - - 6798 sfcLCL ODpotential -14406 - - -16559 - - -13838 - - -11174 - - -10973 ODpotential blCL 17962 - - 20115 - - 17394 - - 14731 - - 14529 blCL maxRH 71 - - 75 - - 69 - - 76 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 27.1 - - 29.6 - - 43.5 - - 42.0 - - 32.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 1.7 - - -0.5 - - 7.6 - - 15.4 - - 16.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 33.0 - - 30.8 - - 42.9 - - 42.9 - - 38.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 1.2 - - -1.4 - - 7.1 - - 14.9 - - 15.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - -1 - - 96 - - -1 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 4 - - 27 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 94276 69 323 64 315 52 333 54 336 64 316 94276 87703 65 320 55 319 56 323 55 332 64 314 87703 82536 51 317 47 316 49 323 50 333 52 314 82536 78174 41 314 40 317 43 310 45 328 44 318 78174 74364 36 315 32 319 38 304 42 320 44 322 74364 70949 34 321 31 312 35 307 41 318 38 323 70949 67816 35 330 27 311 31 314 38 316 34 321 67816 64906 34 329 24 316 30 311 36 316 34 323 64906 62186 32 318 28 321 30 306 38 315 37 327 62186 59541 31 314 31 324 30 309 38 312 38 324 59541 56768 35 315 34 325 30 320 35 312 36 319 56768 53870 39 321 37 320 34 325 33 312 33 310 53870 51090 41 322 34 317 34 322 30 313 31 307 51090 48581 40 321 33 324 30 322 30 315 28 314 48581 46332 39 326 33 326 31 320 32 310 28 324 46332 44300 41 326 34 328 32 318 32 313 30 326 44300 42463 43 332 38 333 34 323 31 318 32 318 42463 40802 51 344 45 336 37 332 32 331 27 320 40802 39281 71 332 58 329 48 328 42 314 33 320 39281 37877 75 329 62 329 50 320 45 305 34 312 37877 36575 74 337 62 331 49 321 44 308 33 315 36575 35323 74 338 62 330 49 324 46 314 37 312 35323 34055 76 335 63 330 50 325 47 317 40 307 34055 32746 78 333 63 330 51 327 47 317 40 305 32746 31396 80 333 62 332 52 329 46 319 37 311 31396 29996 77 334 59 334 52 331 43 324 35 319 29996 28536 72 340 58 335 50 333 39 327 32 313 28536 27018 71 345 57 337 48 336 38 331 25 311 27018 25447 66 344 53 337 45 336 34 334 24 311 25447 23821 58 343 48 337 43 334 33 331 25 310 23821 22143 53 348 45 339 40 334 32 329 24 307 22143 20408 45 347 43 345 36 338 28 333 23 303 20408 18610 38 335 38 344 33 340 24 332 23 294 18610 16783 36 326 32 338 28 333 24 320 22 293 16783 15026 32 324 26 329 24 319 26 317 20 304 15026 13427 27 320 21 315 24 315 25 320 18 310 13427 12000 24 317 20 306 22 312 21 318 16 306 12000 10726 22 316 18 300 21 304 19 312 16 300 10726 9587 21 315 17 294 19 296 18 304 17 296 9587 8569 19 315 15 288 17 289 17 298 17 295 8569 7661 16 316 13 280 14 282 16 293 15 293 7661 6855 14 319 11 267 13 273 14 289 12 290 6855 6137 12 322 8 247 12 264 14 282 10 283 6137 5490 9 329 6 229 11 251 14 273 11 274 5490 4914 5 325 6 234 9 236 13 260 13 261 4914 4431 6 300 5 244 6 231 11 250 14 247 4431 4058 10 268 4 244 3 235 7 248 11 232 4058 3801 10 243 3 210 2 241 4 253 6 200 3801 3645 6*204 3*186 2 251 2*266 5*177 3645 3556 5*195 2*180 2*256 2*271 5*168 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography