DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/20 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 35.2 - - 49.7 - - 61.6 - - 61.7 - - 46.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 165 - - 212 - - 20 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1108 - - 1691 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3706 - - 4249 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4511 - - 5094 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 312 - - 452 - - 845 - - 1629 - - 584 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 234 - - 294 - - 61 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 53 - - 16 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 3 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 240 - - 304 - - 036 - - 350 - - 282 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - -2 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -236 - - -1924 - - -4503 - - -6059 - - -2068 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3792 - - 6435 - - 9598 - - 9617 - - 5625 sfcLCL ODpotential -8902 - - -7952 - - -8550 - - -10193 - - -9132 ODpotential blCL 12458 - - 12463 - - 13644 - - 13751 - - 12689 blCL maxRH 80 - - 89 - - 77 - - 82 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 35.2 - - 49.7 - - 61.6 - - 61.7 - - 46.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.3 - - 34.1 - - 32.0 - - 32.2 - - 34.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 39.7 - - 48.3 - - 60.0 - - 61.2 - - 50.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 32.7 - - 34.1 - - 31.9 - - 32.2 - - 34.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 165 - - 212 - - 20 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1108 - - 1691 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 19 - - 54 - - 9 - - 27 - - 46 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97463 5 332 9 288 12 292 12 300 14 319 97463 90265 4 179 6 256 10 294 7 329 2 109 90265 84707 4 013 5 236 9 258 6 310 2 344 84707 80073 7 348 3 263 8 270 7 277 6 266 80073 76060 3 304 5 283 6 272 7 261 8 269 76060 72499 6 307 4 291 7 233 6 245 8 264 72499 69270 10 298 2 261 6 224 8 230 11 239 69270 66300 10 285 6 262 5 255 7 206 11 232 66300 63530 6 291 9 246 8 257 6 237 9 238 63530 60827 10 270 11 223 11 235 9 256 13 235 60827 57994 15 218 13 229 15 220 12 220 20 215 57994 55054 19 218 18 233 15 217 17 220 21 211 55054 52247 23 222 22 212 20 219 25 213 24 222 52247 49713 22 223 20 213 21 211 26 203 29 205 49713 47444 25 231 26 223 25 224 27 204 29 196 47444 45398 40 215 32 205 35 224 32 213 30 199 45398 43536 39 218 24 205 34 215 34 213 27 201 43536 41823 40 227 30 214 31 218 28 217 20 192 41823 40229 48 221 45 215 40 224 33 222 19 204 40229 38741 51 217 58 209 56 217 50 214 36 209 38741 37358 51 219 56 204 58 208 56 205 48 198 37358 36040 52 222 50 211 54 209 50 205 42 196 36040 34723 56 217 50 215 50 215 44 207 32 199 34723 33380 69 210 56 212 51 214 40 208 33 193 33380 32012 73 211 59 208 53 209 39 210 32 197 32012 30596 62 213 54 208 51 207 38 206 25 201 30596 29119 44 218 46 209 45 208 35 202 22 196 29119 27580 36 224 35 212 40 209 31 201 21 195 27580 25980 35 231 26 209 34 208 27 202 22 206 25980 24321 32 233 23 203 27 202 21 202 20 212 24321 22607 29 227 24 206 22 200 17 198 9 198 22607 20834 27 219 25 215 21 206 17 192 10 163 20834 18997 28 209 24 218 20 212 18 179 11 172 18997 17131 34 205 26 212 21 213 19 175 12 183 17131 15334 34 202 29 207 23 208 20 188 14 177 15334 13698 26 191 28 199 23 198 22 197 17 175 13698 12238 19 176 28 191 25 188 22 196 17 192 12238 10934 15 159 25 189 27 185 20 187 16 197 10934 9765 14 140 20 188 27 187 18 176 14 194 9765 8718 12 132 16 182 23 191 16 169 12 188 8718 7781 14 120 14 177 18 192 15 167 12 175 7781 6949 15 114 12 177 14 183 12 161 11 157 6949 6207 14 108 10 170 11 167 9 152 9 140 6207 5539 8 103 7 152 7*149 5 124 5 124 5539 4947 3 338 3*140 3*059 5 022 3 354 4947 4452 6 321 0*290 3 042 9 355 8 346 4452 4071 6 320 1 298 3 032 9 352 8 343 4071 3809 6 303 1 309 4 026 9 352 7 330 3809 3649 4 264 1 310 4 026 9*351 5*300 3649 3557 4*240 1 310 3 023 7*350 4*282 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography