DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/13 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.8 - - 50.4 - - 66.6 - - 56.8 - - 44.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -51 - - -5 - - 51 - - -4 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1690 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5093 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 58 - - 182 - - 1571 - - 2088 - - 84 Hgt.Variab. W* 16 - - 11 - - 183 - - 4 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 5 - - 11 - - 3 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 150 - - 149 - - 233 - - 203 - - 145 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -4 - - 10 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7342 - - -9868 - - -12120 - - -11375 - - -8910 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10899 - - 13426 - - 17214 - - 14934 - - 12468 sfcLCL ODpotential -18918 - - -18752 - - -17596 - - -18449 - - -18536 ODpotential blCL 22474 - - 22309 - - 22689 - - 22007 - - 22093 blCL maxRH 52 - - 64 - - 40 - - 54 - - 53 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 38.8 - - 50.4 - - 66.6 - - 56.8 - - 44.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 5.3 - - 5.3 - - 3.2 - - 4.7 - - 4.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.4 - - 51.0 - - 65.9 - - 62.3 - - 50.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 5.1 - - 5.0 - - 3.0 - - 4.4 - - 4.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -51 - - -5 - - 51 - - -4 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1690 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96337 45 054 37 022 42 024 50 040 52 057 96337 89403 38 053 33 045 36 032 40 035 42 040 89403 83975 35 050 35 055 27 053 35 039 42 041 83975 79445 27 046 24 054 18 065 22 027 29 045 79445 75519 23 039 24 061 17 065 20 029 21 053 75519 72032 24 022 25 047 18 044 21 019 16 028 72032 68859 20 012 21 012 14 022 14 016 10 010 68859 65925 19 003 16 344 18 349 14 000 10 339 65925 63200 21 009 19 344 20 334 20 337 23 335 63200 60562 24 348 19 340 19 320 17 308 22 312 60562 57817 26 339 23 333 21 322 17 313 19 300 57817 54967 34 328 34 323 30 323 22 320 22 306 54967 52229 34 322 34 314 28 309 27 302 30 295 52229 49756 35 319 30 312 27 299 35 280 32 283 49756 47534 35 312 28 310 25 303 32 272 30 266 47534 45508 35 314 30 311 27 305 30 275 29 258 45508 43642 32 309 31 304 31 286 36 279 32 261 43642 41914 28 291 33 293 29 278 42 277 38 265 41914 40310 26 276 31 285 29 276 43 272 44 264 40310 38821 22 266 29 269 31 271 37 270 43 258 38821 37440 19 255 28 263 31 263 32 265 43 255 37440 36126 20 244 30 261 32 256 31 263 41 254 36126 34809 22 232 31 251 32 255 30 265 36 256 34809 33460 26 229 29 242 31 259 29 270 33 260 33460 32080 29 231 30 243 33 264 31 271 35 264 32080 30656 29 246 34 244 35 263 36 266 40 263 30656 29177 32 252 37 244 37 257 38 258 43 259 29177 27642 33 248 37 245 40 253 40 252 44 256 27642 26050 34 253 38 248 45 253 43 251 46 256 26050 24400 38 262 38 253 46 253 43 248 46 251 24400 22695 39 268 36 256 43 254 42 245 45 242 22695 20926 38 272 36 261 40 254 39 245 44 237 20926 19088 35 272 34 264 35 255 35 245 40 239 19088 17217 32 275 30 265 30 255 30 246 34 245 17217 15412 28 278 26 264 25 253 25 245 28 246 15412 13766 24 276 23 259 21 249 22 243 23 247 13766 12294 21 270 21 253 19 246 20 241 21 247 12294 10979 17 264 20 248 18 246 18 240 20 247 10979 9800 15 257 18 242 17 247 17 240 19 244 9800 8744 13 251 16 236 17 247 16 240 19 241 8744 7802 11 245 14 226 19 245 17 240 20 239 7802 6965 9 236 13 217 20 240 17 239 21 236 6965 6220 7 232 12 214 19 236 18 236 23 234 6220 5550 7 241 13 217 16*233 17 234 24 231 5550 4954 11 241 15 220 13*233 15 231 24 225 4954 4456 13 239 16 222 12 233 12 229 21 215 4456 4073 12 229 14 214 11 233 9 225 17 193 4073 3808 9 192 11 187 10 233 6 221 15 170 3808 3648 10 157 8*164 9 234 4*212 11*155 3648 3557 8*150 5*149 8 234 3*203 7*145 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography