DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/03 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.1 - - 55.0 - - 59.9 - - 52.5 - - 48.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 206 - - 314 - - 46 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 4413 - - 6101 - - 1799 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 6247 - - 7741 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 7816 - - 9504 - - 5202 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 4292 - - 2553 - - 1908 - - 3518 - - 4619 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 405 - - 515 - - 192 - - 13 W* B/S 2 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 14 - - 15 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 170 - - 233 - - 253 - - 242 - - 134 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 5 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -8 - - 24 - - -11 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -911 - - 774 - - 684 - - 800 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4469 - - 7042 - - 8821 - - 4402 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -2540 - - -353 - - 314 - - -657 - - -1708 ODpotential blCL 6097 - - 8169 - - 9190 - - 5859 - - 5265 blCL maxRH 100 - - 93 - - 100 - - 98 - - 92 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 40 - - 10 - - 210 - - 260 CAPE Temp@2m 46.1 - - 55.0 - - 59.9 - - 52.5 - - 48.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.8 - - 36.3 - - 33.3 - - 45.3 - - 45.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.4 - - 53.4 - - 57.9 - - 51.8 - - 49.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.6 - - 35.6 - - 33.1 - - 44.0 - - 44.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 206 - - 314 - - 46 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 4413 - - 6101 - - 1799 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 73 - - 101 - - 93 - - 67 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99032 10 138 4 153 4 211 6 035 6 023 99032 91645 11 066 6 097 7 139 4 136 1 101 91645 85923 14 060 8 122 7 068 8 094 8 084 85923 81151 11 060 8 124 1 053 10 074 12 058 81151 77028 2 034 9 066 7 152 2 357 13 052 77028 73364 5 217 4 071 6 129 3 176 6 057 73364 70037 2 118 4 179 4 201 3 125 3 122 70037 66973 5 302 1 162 8 174 2 270 1 150 66973 64118 9 240 7 263 3 240 8 196 11 198 64118 61337 5 151 5 171 2 095 6 123 11 151 61337 58423 20 268 17 251 21 242 16 267 17 253 58423 55388 21 263 21 251 23 243 24 246 24 248 55388 52489 28 279 21 266 30 266 26 259 28 253 52489 49883 38 278 30 272 38 254 33 251 35 248 49883 47546 49 277 42 278 36 249 36 247 35 246 47546 45422 60 275 60 270 44 256 41 250 36 248 45422 43476 70 262 71 257 60 254 50 249 40 246 43476 41679 68 259 69 249 65 247 57 243 42 244 41679 40006 70 266 68 244 65 245 59 240 44 246 40006 38445 84 270 75 248 72 244 65 240 51 244 38445 36991 97 262 84 248 82 242 73 237 58 238 36991 35610 101 256 89 247 87 238 75 231 59 233 35610 34233 102 255 94 248 89 237 73 225 57 229 34233 32836 99 255 98 247 95 234 73 224 56 228 32836 31426 96 255 99 245 100 231 73 223 60 227 31426 29989 97 253 97 243 97 231 72 225 65 224 29989 28508 97 253 94 242 93 230 74 226 67 223 28508 26976 92 256 87 243 88 229 74 224 67 223 26976 25392 81 256 79 241 79 228 66 221 67 221 25392 23759 71 253 73 240 70 228 57 218 61 219 23759 22082 65 249 66 240 63 228 54 213 52 215 22082 20354 60 249 57 236 58 223 53 212 46 213 20354 18567 53 250 50 231 55 217 50 213 43 214 18567 16754 44 248 44 232 50 219 44 215 40 221 16754 15010 38 243 40 236 44 228 36 222 32 228 15010 13425 36 241 36 239 37 235 27 225 22 239 13425 12011 35 242 32 240 29 241 17 224 17 254 12011 10749 35 241 28 239 21 248 12 237 14 262 10749 9619 35 240 24 236 17*252 14 253 12 264 9619 8608 33 241 22*236 16*253 14 262 11 264 8608 7702 29 247 20*236 16 254 14 264 11 262 7702 6896 26 252 17 234 15 254 13 263 11 255 6896 6175 22 256 15 233 15 253 12 261 10 248 6175 5522 18 259 13 233 14 253 11*256 9 238 5522 4940 15 259 13 232 14 253 10*251 6 224 4940 4450 11 259 12 232 14 253 8 243 5 200 4450 4071 7 255 11 233 13 253 7 240 4 163 4071 3808 4 245 11 233 13 253 7 238 4 145 3808 3649 2*222 10 233 12 253 6 237 4 136 3649 3557 2*170 9 233 11 253 5 236 3*134 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography