DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/24 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0703z - - 1003z - - 1556z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.4 - - 53.8 - - 61.8 - - 60.7 - - 45.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -42 - - 121 - - 184 - - -1 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1277 - - 3133 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 5227 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4680 - - 6536 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 84 - - 1175 - - 1397 - - 5156 - - 156 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 222 - - 344 - - 5 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 10 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 11 - - 6 - - 1 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 167 - - 189 - - 184 - - 193 - - 169 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - -5 - - -3 - - -1 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2307 - - -7332 - - -8384 - - -11820 - - -6864 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5864 - - 12013 - - 14921 - - 15379 - - 10421 sfcLCL ODpotential -14746 - - -15319 - - -15248 - - -18705 - - -16745 ODpotential blCL 18302 - - 19999 - - 21784 - - 22263 - - 20302 blCL maxRH 87 - - 77 - - 79 - - 80 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 32.4 - - 53.8 - - 61.8 - - 60.7 - - 45.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 19.9 - - 14.1 - - 8.8 - - 5.7 - - 13.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.4 - - 52.8 - - 60.4 - - 61.3 - - 50.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.8 - - 13.9 - - 8.6 - - 5.4 - - 13.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -42 - - 121 - - 184 - - -1 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1277 - - 3133 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 46 - - 8 - - 18 - - 21 - - 34 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97341 5 023 5 297 2 285 8 294 10 333 97341 90139 9 020 8 071 3 129 4 020 5 354 90139 84567 8 043 9 060 3 143 3 058 6 083 84567 79931 5 077 5 032 2 289 5 048 7 126 79931 75924 1 154 1 343 2 262 1 185 6 181 75924 72365 5 214 3 234 7 267 6 225 7 228 72365 69131 10 239 6 245 9 270 8 209 11 245 69131 66140 10 244 10 257 16 268 8 286 7 261 66140 63341 10 240 15 238 25 243 19 282 14 271 63341 60616 8 265 13 247 19 228 22 264 22 275 60616 57775 23 291 17 273 20 261 24 261 26 269 57775 54826 28 287 30 277 28 271 30 268 29 256 54826 52010 30 287 32 274 32 277 30 278 28 264 52010 49480 30 294 25 282 35 278 39 283 36 282 49480 47222 36 301 30 298 32 287 44 280 43 276 47222 45189 35 290 35 289 41 289 46 278 45 272 45189 43345 27 294 33 292 40 286 44 274 46 272 43345 41660 38 333 29 307 41 294 40 278 44 273 41660 40109 59 318 51 316 46 302 43 289 46 279 40109 38674 56 306 53 307 47 300 49 294 53 281 38674 37336 48 311 45 301 43 297 52 294 55 283 37336 36052 48 319 38 306 41 297 52 293 53 285 36052 34754 46 320 38 310 40 298 49 291 53 283 34754 33416 43 321 40 311 40 297 47 291 50 282 33416 32043 38 324 42 311 39 295 44 291 45 279 32043 30620 35 328 42 309 36 296 41 291 42 275 30620 29136 37 329 38 309 34 295 38 290 41 272 29136 27593 40 329 33 313 30 291 36 291 41 276 27593 25990 37 329 30 321 27 293 33 289 42 281 25990 24332 31 329 27 319 25 297 31 288 41 285 24332 22619 26 326 24 311 23 298 30 286 38 285 22619 20843 23 319 21 304 22 298 29 285 34 279 20843 18994 20 313 21 302 22 298 27 282 31 274 18994 17111 17 313 19 300 21 294 27 282 29 273 17111 15298 13 312 16 295 19 286 25 286 24 277 15298 13652 9 305 12 289 18 278 20 287 19 279 13652 12190 8 298 10 281 16 274 15 287 14 275 12190 10886 7 297 8 270 13 269 13 290 11 269 10886 9723 5 297 6 252 9 257 11 290 9 263 9723 8684 4 296 5 217 7 237 9 270 9 251 8684 7758 5 259 7 198 8 215 9 245 10 241 7758 6936 7 203 11 184 7*202 8 240 9 242 6936 6203 8 177 12 185 7*196 5 235 8 241 6203 5541 9 187 14 197 7 190 4 229 8 233 5541 4950 12 199 14*198 6 184 3 222 10 217 4950 4454 14 204 12*192 6 180 2 213 13 202 4454 4072 16 201 11 189 5 177 2 205 17 191 4072 3808 14 186 11 187 5 174 1 199 15 183 3808 3648 12*173 10 187 5 174 1*197 10*175 3648 3557 7*167 8 187 5 173 1*193 6*169 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography