DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 01/14 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 36.6 - - 47.8 - - 61.4 - - 57.4 - - 42.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -54 - - 0 - - 77 - - -3 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1152 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 4555 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 79 - - 308 - - 900 - - 1751 - - 97 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 23 - - 185 - - 0 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 151 - - 215 - - 293 - - 182 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - -4 - - -2 - - 1 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4111 - - -5672 - - -8197 - - -7960 - - -5562 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7667 - - 9230 - - 12752 - - 11517 - - 9119 sfcLCL ODpotential -17276 - - -15948 - - -15696 - - -16274 - - -17195 ODpotential blCL 20832 - - 19505 - - 20251 - - 19831 - - 20752 blCL maxRH 37 - - 47 - - 47 - - 35 - - 35 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 36.6 - - 47.8 - - 61.4 - - 57.4 - - 42.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 17.0 - - 21.1 - - 18.8 - - 20.4 - - 16.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.7 - - 48.0 - - 60.7 - - 59.5 - - 46.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 16.5 - - 20.2 - - 18.4 - - 19.8 - - 15.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -54 - - 0 - - 77 - - -3 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1152 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96627 33 085 22 069 29 070 47 071 40 089 96627 89726 32 076 26 097 21 075 29 070 33 090 89726 84290 29 066 30 092 16 090 19 077 27 080 84290 79714 18 074 22 066 22 093 14 075 17 071 79714 75754 21 088 16 075 20 078 14 065 17 078 75754 72241 18 061 13 087 9 078 12 037 16 066 72241 69039 15 054 10 077 5 123 7 349 17 039 69039 66090 16 032 11 036 7 099 2 042 8 351 66090 63370 3 339 10 333 7 011 6 061 5 328 63370 60752 6 323 10 318 11 350 4 023 9 330 60752 58035 15 316 13 300 18 322 13 306 16 306 58035 55226 13 296 10 288 21 299 23 285 24 290 55226 52553 8 311 13 291 20 279 26 274 29 282 52553 50140 10 289 18 299 21 278 26 284 29 285 50140 47958 12 279 16 290 22 270 31 287 38 289 47958 45959 11 281 14 281 23 265 33 273 42 279 45959 44116 13 287 17 258 30 257 40 270 47 273 44116 42406 15 291 21 232 33 231 43 256 51 269 42406 40805 20 284 24 242 33 241 43 248 51 259 40805 39319 28 253 36 265 37 269 43 260 48 262 39319 37954 38 244 48 271 51 276 57 269 58 281 37954 36658 41 243 50 266 57 271 64 267 68 281 36658 35348 41 248 50 262 55 267 63 262 67 270 35348 33993 43 256 50 263 53 263 60 263 64 271 33993 32598 40 259 46 263 49 262 56 265 62 274 32598 31151 37 254 41 257 45 262 52 270 60 277 31151 29642 33 247 37 252 41 259 50 271 58 279 29642 28071 32 242 33 254 37 259 46 269 57 278 28071 26438 31 251 31 265 34 266 43 272 55 279 26438 24747 30 270 29 276 32 278 38 275 47 284 24747 22999 28 284 26 277 29 277 33 275 39 281 22999 21188 24 291 21 271 25 266 29 271 35 274 21188 19305 20 292 17 265 23 260 27 267 35 276 19305 17387 16 290 16 268 21 263 26 273 35 288 17387 15538 14 284 16 278 20 277 25 286 30 295 15538 13855 13 282 14 282 17 288 21 293 22 298 13855 12355 11 277 10 268 12 288 13 288 15 295 12355 11018 9 260 8 235 9 265 7 268 10 288 11018 9823 7 245 10 217 10 240 7 269 8 301 9823 8757 7 237 11 206 10 242 8 271 7 331 8757 7808 6 235 12 199 9 250 8 275 6 358 7808 6967 6 233 12 197 10 249 8 283 4 006 6967 6219 4 233 12 200 10 245 8 285 2 334 6219 5548 4 230 13 205 10 240 6 281 2 237 5548 4953 4 223 15 209 8*234 5 279 4 212 4953 4455 6 224 16 209 5*219 4 286 4 209 4455 4072 9 206 14 202 4 213 4 292 7 214 4072 3808 12 179 11 181 3 214 4 296 9 200 3808 3648 12 166 8*164 3 213 4 296 9*185 3648 3557 8*162 5*151 3 214 3*293 7*182 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography