DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/13 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.4 - - 59.7 - - 61.3 - - 58.4 - - 53.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -34 - - 34 - - 21 - - -15 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1338 - - 155 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4741 - - 3558 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1191 - - 2842 - - 6028 - - 5326 - - 3271 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 148 - - 62 - - 18 - - 26 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 21 - - 15 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 191 - - 197 - - 208 - - 203 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -10 - - -9 - - -5 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1726 - - -2230 - - -3446 - - -2604 - - -1039 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5283 - - 6971 - - 7005 - - 6162 - - 4597 sfcLCL ODpotential -7294 - - -5171 - - -4629 - - -4174 - - -3199 ODpotential blCL 10851 - - 9912 - - 8187 - - 7732 - - 6756 blCL maxRH 100 - - 96 - - 100 - - 98 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 20 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 51.4 - - 59.7 - - 61.3 - - 58.4 - - 53.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.4 - - 41.3 - - 42.6 - - 43.4 - - 45.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.3 - - 59.4 - - 61.0 - - 58.9 - - 54.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.4 - - 41.2 - - 42.6 - - 43.3 - - 44.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -34 - - 34 - - 21 - - -15 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1338 - - 155 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 85 - - 100 - - 94 - - 98 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96215 32 034 28 036 23 036 34 029 30 052 96215 89351 26 048 23 044 21 046 26 030 30 046 89351 83978 26 046 23 051 16 060 19 023 22 045 83978 79468 17 039 17 035 14 041 12 039 15 041 79468 75540 9 039 11 041 12 008 8 039 12 023 75540 72035 10 034 9 025 8 355 5 347 12 016 72035 68848 13 315 11 342 4 299 10 280 17 329 68848 65906 9 335 8 263 11 290 10 277 16 325 65906 63150 17 277 10 222 13 296 15 277 17 304 63150 60464 29 259 20 246 21 262 27 266 25 270 60464 57667 36 245 24 257 31 246 31 261 30 259 57667 54748 40 238 32 258 23 241 25 255 35 258 54748 51929 42 240 40 261 24 257 31 264 38 254 51929 49377 50 241 53 251 43 253 51 257 42 246 49377 47108 44 245 50 243 54 251 55 241 49 245 47108 45068 49 257 51 246 53 256 55 239 53 245 45068 43205 72 248 69 243 64 251 58 250 54 233 43205 41492 81 234 79 238 78 241 68 251 49 228 41492 39908 73 232 77 235 79 231 75 236 52 237 39908 38425 73 243 75 239 72 228 74 224 64 232 38425 37032 78 245 77 239 71 229 70 222 70 222 37032 35707 72 240 69 235 73 229 72 221 60 217 35707 34386 65 233 62 228 69 227 73 219 55 222 34386 33037 62 231 56 223 55 223 73 216 59 228 33037 31659 58 231 50 223 48 219 71 214 66 228 31659 30238 49 231 47 222 50 219 70 212 72 225 30238 28763 41 225 49 220 49 219 67 212 77 219 28763 27232 46 216 49 219 51 219 58 210 82 212 27232 25644 51 212 48 220 53 219 50 206 78 212 25644 24000 48 211 47 221 54 218 48 208 73 213 24000 22305 44 210 47 223 55 218 48 211 71 216 22305 20551 39 211 47 225 55 219 54 214 69 220 20551 18737 34 214 47 226 56 221 62 216 68 224 18737 16899 32 218 48 227 58 223 64 218 63 225 16899 15136 33 224 48 229 59 225 60 221 55 224 15136 13532 35 229 50 230 57 225 56 226 44 224 13532 12101 39 234 51 231 53 224 51 231 34 221 12101 10823 43 236 53 230 48 221 45 232 33 218 10823 9679 45 235 53 228 44 217 41 231 33 217 9679 8655 45 231 51 224 40 214 37 228 31 216 8655 7740 47 224 48 220 37 210 35 225 29 216 7740 6925 50 219 43 214 33 206 32 223 27 216 6925 6197 48 215 38 208 30 202 29 221 26 218 6197 5539 42 210 33 203 28 201 27 218 24 219 5539 4952 34 203 29*199 27 199 24 215 22 219 4952 4458 28 195 26*195 26 198 21 212 19 218 4458 4076 23 184 23 192 25 198 19 210 16 215 4076 3811 18 173 20 189 23 197 16 209 12 211 3811 3650 14*167 17 188 20*197 14*208 9 207 3650 3557 8*160 13 187 15*197 10*208 5*203 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography