DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.5 - - 58.9 - - 67.9 - - 67.5 - - 58.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 317 - - 385 - - 112 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2429 - - 4895 - - 5071 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 4912 - - 6877 - - 6349 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5832 - - 8298 - - 8474 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 527 - - 817 - - 1346 - - 1680 - - 3564 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 379 - - 512 - - 343 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 9 - - 19 - - 20 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 271 - - 352 - - 020 - - 018 - - 348 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 4 - - 9 - - 11 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1857 - - -1955 - - -1318 - - -1232 - - -4185 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5413 - - 7787 - - 9616 - - 9706 - - 7743 sfcLCL ODpotential -8639 - - -6389 - - -4104 - - -3820 - - -9268 ODpotential blCL 12195 - - 12221 - - 12402 - - 12294 - - 12826 blCL maxRH 84 - - 91 - - 94 - - 99 - - 84 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.5 - - 58.9 - - 67.9 - - 67.5 - - 58.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 33.3 - - 37.1 - - 37.8 - - 37.1 - - 37.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.8 - - 56.9 - - 65.4 - - 66.5 - - 60.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.3 - - 37.0 - - 37.8 - - 37.1 - - 37.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 317 - - 385 - - 112 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2429 - - 4895 - - 5071 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 35 - - 63 - - 77 - - 97 - - 35 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98655 15 114 7 107 14 089 12 091 12 075 98655 91299 16 099 9 089 11 095 10 098 6 046 91299 85626 9 104 9 084 6 128 10 113 2 153 85626 80917 4 095 5 117 4 171 2 124 6 112 80917 76834 2 056 6 148 8 176 9 235 1 056 76834 73204 5 261 6 227 9 192 11 247 4 270 73204 69900 7 238 9 237 8 212 10 252 6 238 69900 66841 6 223 10 213 11 238 12 250 6 230 66841 63987 6 221 10 209 14 229 13 238 8 236 63987 61218 7 216 9 228 10 223 13 221 11 245 61218 58339 4 219 11 211 11 249 8 220 14 239 58339 55355 3 209 8 178 12 246 8 262 10 230 55355 52507 2 241 2 138 6 218 7 253 6 249 52507 49937 2 212 2 097 3 163 5 286 4 229 49937 47636 9 070 7 119 4 124 3 341 7 045 47636 45558 9 067 10 067 14 053 12 066 10 029 45558 43658 11 088 14 056 17 035 15 050 12 043 43658 41907 17 074 21 067 15 061 18 038 18 042 41907 40297 23 053 27 057 21 068 21 039 28 031 40297 38814 17 063 23 042 26 054 25 038 25 031 38814 37444 20 108 14 102 20 049 20 044 26 047 37444 36146 33 122 24 108 18 068 18 077 15 060 36146 34842 36 123 23 113 20 077 19 101 16 094 34842 33498 36 126 20 112 20 066 19 100 16 081 33498 32115 36 125 23 095 26 071 19 081 22 058 32115 30680 33 123 31 079 31 071 23 070 24 050 30680 29184 33 118 35 073 33 068 26 064 25 054 29184 27629 32 112 33 072 33 071 27 063 24 055 27629 26015 22 107 28 066 34 074 28 065 25 048 26015 24343 12 144 24 053 34 076 32 074 28 051 24343 22618 17 156 24 067 32 079 38 081 29 067 22618 20835 18 123 28 091 29 086 33 083 29 074 20835 18993 20 115 28 102 27 094 22 084 22 061 18993 17125 22 110 21 101 22 097 13 101 18 046 17125 15329 23 105 21 103 17 109 15 108 15 047 15329 13692 19 115 24 102 18 108 14 101 14 049 13692 12231 9 141 25 091 18 092 12 076 14 053 12231 10926 4 116 21 068 19 063 16 050 12 050 10926 9760 7 123 19 048 24 049 20 040 11 045 9760 8721 7 085 20 046 22*038 21*027 14 034 8721 7793 11 054 20 049 20*030 21*023 15 021 7793 6968 13 046 18 047 20 025 21 021 16 013 6968 6231 14 042 13*032 20 021 21 019 17 009 6231 5565 12 038 9*000 19 019 21 017 18 007 5565 4970 9 021 9 352 19 018 20 016 19 006 4970 4469 9 347 9 352 19 016 20 015 19 005 4469 4082 10 331 9 350 18 015 20 014 17 003 4082 3814 9 308 9 350 18 014 19 014 15 000 3814 3651 5 292 8 350 17 014 17 013 11*355 3651 3558 3*271 8 349 14 014 14 013 6*348 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography