DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/19 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0954z - - 1330z - - 1555z - - 1858z - - 2155z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.6 - - 47.3 - - 50.7 - - 46.7 - - 43.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -12 - - 236 - - 327 - - 46 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 3165 - - 3937 - - 2699 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 5363 - - 6072 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 6568 - - 7340 - - 6102 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 235 - - 2735 - - 3188 - - 2714 - - 4029 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 377 - - 452 - - 218 - - 19 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 17 - - 24 - - 17 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 142 - - 163 - - 171 - - 209 - - 225 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 9 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -9 - - -12 - - -6 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2345 - - -892 - - 728 - - 1499 - - -172 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5902 - - 7461 - - 6612 - - 4603 - - 3729 sfcLCL ODpotential -6505 - - -2317 - - 221 - - 294 - - -1194 ODpotential blCL 10061 - - 8885 - - 7119 - - 5808 - - 4751 blCL maxRH 90 - - 96 - - 99 - - 94 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 130 - - 180 - - 130 CAPE Temp@2m 37.6 - - 47.3 - - 50.7 - - 46.7 - - 43.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.3 - - 26.8 - - 33.8 - - 38.5 - - 38.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 38.9 - - 45.7 - - 48.7 - - 46.1 - - 43.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.2 - - 26.6 - - 33.6 - - 37.5 - - 38.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -12 - - 236 - - 327 - - 46 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 3165 - - 3937 - - 2699 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 61 - - 84 - - 95 - - 78 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96447 11 320 4 020 8 270 8 320 10 336 96447 89253 10 359 4 045 4 321 10 005 14 014 89253 83694 12 022 1 132 4 352 10 001 12 011 83694 79065 8 008 4 072 3 133 6 319 11 346 79065 75053 3 316 3 358 6 161 4 305 7 332 75053 71477 7 272 6 324 5 258 8 328 7 319 71477 68208 11 253 8 268 15 268 14 292 9 286 68208 65180 12 266 9 263 15 263 18 279 12 295 65180 62357 16 276 15 272 20 278 20 290 22 277 62357 59614 19 278 21 270 26 276 23 289 23 283 59614 56749 22 275 25 275 29 273 34 290 30 293 56749 53782 26 281 29 282 35 276 42 284 37 289 53782 50957 30 282 33 282 38 283 41 279 38 287 50957 48414 32 282 34 282 40 287 38 281 36 284 48414 46132 34 285 34 281 42 285 38 286 36 279 46132 44059 36 285 35 279 42 281 40 287 37 277 44059 42162 35 279 35 275 41 280 42 282 39 277 42162 40419 34 273 35 270 42 277 41 278 41 276 40419 38811 33 265 36 264 41 270 38 274 40 273 38811 37322 29 254 34 255 36 257 35 267 38 267 37322 35945 25 244 30 248 30 248 33 255 33 257 35945 34646 30 228 28 236 23 239 27 242 27 244 34646 33358 41 212 33 215 22 221 22 224 23 223 33358 32047 38 206 34 201 32 207 26 204 23 204 32047 30711 30 205 31 188 43 193 28 194 24 204 30711 29333 25 204 25 173 41 181 29 176 26 208 29333 27904 22 204 22 173 34 181 33 167 27 201 27904 26424 21 202 22 183 30 192 28 182 27 194 26424 24894 20 196 23 203 28 202 26 198 24 196 24894 23315 19 195 22 209 28 217 26 204 21 197 23315 21688 18 203 22 216 28 232 21 211 19 204 21688 20006 24 207 19 240 25 225 18 222 15 218 20006 18264 32 204 19 248 18 215 18 225 15 224 18264 16495 37 190 19 228 15 227 17 231 17 225 16495 14793 32 170 28 210 18 235 16 243 21 232 14793 13243 25 162 37 196 21 226 18 245 19 240 13243 11858 22 162 39 182 24 215 18 240 16 256 11858 10619 18 164 38 169 27 202 18 231 16 266 10619 9509 17 169 34 160 28 192 19 222 16 271 9509 8514 16 178 30 152 27 183 20 216 15 268 8514 7624 16 190 26 149 26*177 21 212 14 262 7624 6831 16 206 22*151 26*174 20 211 13 255 6831 6124 16 217 20*156 25 172 20*210 12 249 6124 5485 16 222 18 161 25 171 19*209 10 245 5485 4914 15 219 18 164 24 170 18 209 9 241 4914 4433 13 208 17 166 23 170 17 209 7 237 4433 4061 11 193 16 167 23 169 17 209 5 235 4061 3804 10 171 15 167 22 169 16 209 4 234 3804 3647 8 150 14 167 20 169 14 209 3*231 3647 3557 5*142 12 167 16 169 11 209 2*225 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography