DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 09/29 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1327z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2155z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.4 - - 47.4 - - 54.3 - - 51.2 - - 47.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 24 - - 116 - - 42 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1591 - - 1126 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 3932 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 4994 - - 4529 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 238 - - 879 - - 1366 - - 1216 - - 1956 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 66 - - 243 - - 154 - - 37 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 13 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 5 - - 3 - - 9 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 188 - - 358 - - 028 - - 003 - - 356 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 6 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -67 - - 0 - - 1076 - - 956 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3623 - - 3557 - - 3918 - - 3573 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -5256 - - -2487 - - 90 - - 63 - - -381 ODpotential blCL 8812 - - 6044 - - 4904 - - 4466 - - 3938 blCL maxRH 95 - - 100 - - 97 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 20 - - 160 - - 60 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 42.4 - - 47.4 - - 54.3 - - 51.2 - - 47.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.7 - - 45.4 - - 49.1 - - 47.4 - - 46.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.5 - - 46.9 - - 53.2 - - 50.6 - - 47.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.7 - - 45.1 - - 48.1 - - 46.9 - - 46.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 24 - - 116 - - 42 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 1591 - - 1126 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 80 - - 100 - - 89 - - 100 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97853 6 347 5 286 5 253 12 274 10 308 97853 90607 6 338 4 020 5 021 3 308 10 359 90607 84988 6 018 10 030 7 055 6 052 8 009 84988 80318 7 069 5 310 8 341 8 012 7 043 80318 76280 10 031 1 044 7 262 9 312 4 039 76280 72670 12 330 6 043 6 215 6 247 3 297 72670 69371 8 281 6 265 9 245 6 242 4 299 69371 66320 5 240 10 261 11 257 10 269 7 276 66320 63478 11 280 14 276 14 272 13 281 9 274 63478 60720 15 281 16 276 18 270 19 284 13 284 60720 57839 21 286 21 276 22 266 21 276 15 281 57839 54846 26 287 25 274 23 264 21 274 17 275 54846 51988 31 281 26 270 26 264 23 277 19 269 51988 49421 33 274 28 269 28 261 26 272 21 260 49421 47125 38 267 34 266 32 261 29 266 23 256 47125 45044 41 258 39 259 36 257 31 260 25 255 45044 43140 44 256 45 255 39 255 32 254 26 249 43140 41386 54 253 50 249 43 250 33 249 30 242 41386 39764 62 248 56 247 46 244 35 245 33 239 39764 38261 69 246 64 244 49 242 39 239 35 236 38261 36869 69 246 75 241 60 244 39 236 37 232 36869 35550 70 247 81 237 75 238 42 233 39 227 35550 34235 70 247 82 235 79 234 49 226 41 224 34235 32896 63 249 78 235 77 233 55 226 41 223 32896 31531 56 247 70 239 67 234 55 225 40 223 31531 30124 52 248 61 240 59 234 51 225 39 225 30124 28659 51 251 55 237 56 233 45 230 37 227 28659 27136 47 252 49 240 51 237 37 233 34 226 27136 25556 44 251 46 242 42 251 34 233 30 225 25556 23921 43 256 40 237 34 248 31 235 29 225 23921 22235 40 258 36 238 35 240 30 239 29 230 22235 20491 36 252 33 249 35 241 26 246 26 241 20491 18686 30 250 31 254 31 242 20 245 21 247 18686 16855 26 258 25 243 24 244 15 227 15 243 16855 15091 22 267 20 241 19 244 14 236 12 239 15091 13487 18 269 15 231 16 244 13 247 8 245 13487 12058 15 255 13 224 17 246 13 252 7 254 12058 10782 13 245 14 228 17 246 14 253 6 258 10782 9639 11 244 14 235 17 246 13 255 5 285 9639 8616 10 250 15 241 15 244 12 264 5 322 8616 7704 8 257 15 244 13 240 10 279 4 333 7704 6892 7 258 16 243 10 234 8 299 4 346 6892 6168 6 258 14 241 7 228 6 330 4 007 6168 5515 6 250 11 239 3*221 8 007 5 032 5515 4934 7 249 6 239 2*042 9*008 7 028 4934 4445 6 250 1 339 3 030 10*005 10 012 4445 4068 3 244 5 003 4 027 10 003 10 003 4068 3807 3 205 6 360 4 025 9 003 9 359 3807 3648 3 188 5*359 4 024 9 002 8*357 3648 3557 2*188 5*358 4 025 7 001 6*356 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography