DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 01/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 25.8 - - 33.8 - - 43.5 - - 42.1 - - 28.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 52 - - 154 - - 12 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 412 - - 1071 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3539 - - 3614 - - 3540 - - 3539 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3815 - - 4474 - - 3556 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 204 - - 432 - - 385 - - 1145 - - 575 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 114 - - 227 - - 51 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 6 - - 10 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 267 - - 302 - - 354 - - 345 - - 280 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -1514 - - -3710 - - -3533 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 5329 - - 8184 - - 7089 - - 3556 sfcLCL ODpotential -13385 - - -14306 - - -14415 - - -14567 - - -13753 ODpotential blCL 16941 - - 18121 - - 18889 - - 18123 - - 17309 blCL maxRH 84 - - 69 - - 47 - - 53 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 25.8 - - 33.8 - - 43.5 - - 42.1 - - 28.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.8 - - 23.6 - - 20.9 - - 24.2 - - 27.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 30.4 - - 33.2 - - 42.2 - - 41.8 - - 28.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.2 - - 23.5 - - 20.8 - - 24.1 - - 28.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 52 - - 154 - - 12 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 412 - - 1071 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 36 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97235 66 080 46 081 49 086 56 079 44 084 97235 90187 60 090 49 092 49 094 55 086 52 090 90187 84657 49 099 44 097 41 093 52 084 54 093 84657 80005 39 098 43 099 35 103 36 092 43 098 80005 75946 29 091 35 097 28 101 29 093 33 094 75946 72318 20 079 28 094 18 098 18 075 25 085 72318 69023 17 049 21 079 13 063 14 063 18 067 69023 65985 19 006 21 040 19 020 16 052 15 078 65985 63176 26 021 19 006 24 017 25 021 21 030 63176 60498 32 004 25 005 27 012 32 006 30 011 60498 57734 33 354 28 353 27 351 34 353 35 004 57734 54868 36 352 32 353 30 351 33 346 39 350 54868 52135 46 346 42 354 37 357 34 353 38 348 52135 49674 51 340 51 346 46 355 40 353 40 352 49674 47466 53 337 52 341 49 351 42 350 43 352 47466 45467 52 338 48 343 47 347 42 349 43 355 45467 43650 48 343 46 350 43 352 36 348 40 355 43650 41998 41 352 42 003 37 005 31 008 32 007 41998 40485 33 011 41 012 38 023 34 028 32 011 40485 39073 30 026 40 013 33 029 33 030 26 030 39073 37745 32 034 37 013 38 043 31 041 24 044 37745 36466 29 031 34 018 43 047 32 046 22 044 36466 35170 26 022 34 023 38 044 34 043 21 039 35170 33830 26 020 33 027 34 042 31 038 24 034 33830 32450 31 012 35 034 32 039 27 034 27 031 32450 31015 37 010 38 037 29 033 25 028 27 025 31015 29514 36 010 38 033 30 028 24 022 26 022 29514 27948 33 009 33 028 34 029 26 025 26 025 27948 26316 33 010 35 024 36 026 28 031 26 028 26316 24621 34 012 38 026 35 024 30 035 26 030 24621 22869 35 013 39 027 36 028 31 036 23 034 22869 21052 37 014 38 024 37 031 32 038 18 038 21052 19165 40 016 38 019 35 030 31 037 16 039 19165 17244 40 020 38 021 34 028 29 035 17 040 17244 15395 35 026 32 027 32 031 26 037 17 044 15395 13713 27 031 24 035 27 038 23 044 17 050 13713 12216 22 034 16 045 21 047 20 053 15 055 12216 10884 18 030 12 059 14 053 16 060 13 058 10884 9696 12 021 12 073 11 064 13 067 12 069 9696 8637 4 030 12 087 12 083 13 083 13 086 8637 7697 5 132 13 102 15 098 14 100 15 101 7697 6866 10 145 14 108 14 110 14 112 15 120 6866 6131 11 151 14 112 13 120 12 118 13 132 6131 5474 10 149 12 118 10 131 8 113 8 134 5474 4894 7 141 7 116 5*133 4 061 3 092 4894 4413 2 114 2 021 4*358 8 354 5 341 4413 4047 2 353 4*325 4 354 8 348 8 318 4047 3796 3 320 4*305 4 352 8 347 8 308 3796 3643 2*295 3 301 4 352 8 347 6*292 3643 3556 1*267 3 300 4 353 6*345 4*280 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography