DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/26 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 51.9 - - 61.8 - - 62.7 - - 52.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 266 - - 342 - - 113 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2533 - - 4741 - - 3416 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4932 - - 6708 - - 5167 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5936 - - 8144 - - 6819 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1174 - - 1606 - - 3536 - - 1104 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 362 - - 486 - - 302 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 23 - - 37 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 2 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 119 - - 111 - - 023 - - 339 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -7 - - -5 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1129 - - -1900 - - -4654 - - -5892 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 7066 - - 10045 - - 11473 - - 9449 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5354 - - -6181 - - -9690 - - -12921 ODpotential blCL - - - 11290 - - 14325 - - 16509 - - 16478 blCL maxRH - - - 68 - - 80 - - 86 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 51.9 - - 61.8 - - 62.7 - - 52.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 33.5 - - 30.0 - - 24.7 - - 24.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 50.1 - - 59.6 - - 61.6 - - 54.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 33.4 - - 29.9 - - 24.6 - - 24.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 266 - - 342 - - 113 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2533 - - 4741 - - 3416 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 18 - - 45 - - 33 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98458 6 173 14 238 5 248 9 204 98458 91089 6 201 4 245 6 264 4 195 91089 85404 3 137 2 052 4 327 6 006 85404 80697 5 059 4 101 3 033 8 033 80697 76641 5 043 5 009 4 026 8 018 76641 73044 4 343 4 303 1 279 6 317 73044 69766 8 289 9 293 3 312 4 269 69766 66720 14 257 14 275 14 283 11 284 66720 63882 16 258 17 253 22 269 22 286 63882 61145 18 264 17 246 24 261 26 273 61145 58293 23 266 20 255 21 265 21 262 58293 55323 27 267 27 271 27 276 23 271 55323 52485 37 265 35 266 36 272 35 269 52485 49935 37 257 39 264 40 262 41 258 49935 47648 40 261 45 262 45 258 45 257 47648 45571 47 261 48 258 49 256 47 258 45571 43670 51 260 51 256 53 254 50 258 43670 41920 55 261 55 256 54 254 53 255 41920 40303 58 259 59 257 58 256 54 255 40303 38803 60 256 61 255 60 253 56 253 38803 37409 58 256 62 254 60 251 55 252 37409 36088 57 261 60 256 59 251 56 251 36088 34769 58 264 59 258 57 253 56 250 34769 33418 58 264 57 258 56 253 56 248 33418 32034 54 267 55 257 54 251 55 246 32034 30599 52 271 52 259 52 251 53 245 30599 29105 50 272 49 259 51 249 49 247 29105 27552 46 275 46 258 50 247 45 250 27552 25938 41 275 43 256 49 246 46 246 25938 24266 37 269 38 256 45 245 46 242 24266 22544 30 265 32 256 33 246 40 240 22544 20767 25 274 26 256 25 253 28 239 20767 18927 23 282 22 255 23 253 20 246 18927 17058 19 280 19 253 19 247 18 252 17058 15261 16 275 16 254 16 243 18 251 15261 13627 14 273 13 254 13 239 18 248 13627 12172 10 270 10 245 11 224 18 238 12172 10875 6 263 8 230 11 192 16 214 10875 9717 3 243 8 203 9 167 15 176 9717 8682 3 220 6*169 8 156 14 153 8682 7756 5 200 5*157 5 122 11 140 7756 6933 5 175 4 147 4*080 8 114 6933 6200 4*149 3 124 6*043 7 077 6200 5538 4*137 2 104 8 027 11 055 5538 4950 3 126 2 079 9 022 14 049 4950 4455 3 119 3 060 10 019 15 039 4455 4073 3 108 3 049 10 018 13 026 4073 3810 2 101 3 046 10 018 11 008 3810 3649 2 098 3 043 9 018 8*352 3649 3557 2 095 3 043 8 017 5*339 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography