DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/23 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 30.5 - - 42.4 - - 49.6 - - 50.2 - - 40.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 177 - - 259 - - 29 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1898 - - 2968 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 4327 - - 5244 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5301 - - 6371 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 745 - - 1380 - - 1088 - - 3695 - - 1593 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 288 - - 378 - - 68 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 8 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 7 - - 9 - - 6 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 350 - - 351 - - 342 - - 002 - - 042 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -584 - - -1747 - - -3180 - - -5721 - - -2560 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4141 - - 7049 - - 9552 - - 9278 - - 6118 sfcLCL ODpotential -10540 - - -10780 - - -11448 - - -12720 - - -11264 ODpotential blCL 14096 - - 16081 - - 17819 - - 16277 - - 14821 blCL maxRH 75 - - 62 - - 43 - - 46 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 30.5 - - 42.4 - - 49.6 - - 50.2 - - 40.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.2 - - 24.3 - - 20.4 - - 22.3 - - 26.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 35.1 - - 41.0 - - 47.9 - - 49.7 - - 45.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 26.3 - - 23.9 - - 20.3 - - 22.2 - - 26.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 177 - - 259 - - 29 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1898 - - 2968 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97329 7 074 6 212 9 339 2 074 6 307 97329 90141 6 090 2 124 4 027 8 034 6 082 90141 84603 5 089 12 093 5 329 11 351 13 076 84603 79991 3 337 5 034 2 229 11 304 7 027 79991 75999 4 280 9 295 6 151 9 252 10 261 75999 72464 12 255 10 242 2 201 8 247 11 228 72464 69243 11 247 11 207 10 237 9 259 9 223 69243 66254 13 255 8 215 13 244 10 252 9 245 66254 63469 18 256 9 246 13 255 10 252 13 256 63469 60757 22 259 16 258 14 257 10 242 14 259 60757 57909 21 249 19 245 15 249 15 267 17 268 57909 54937 16 248 18 236 22 247 21 264 20 277 54937 52102 15 256 18 234 25 241 22 264 21 283 52102 49562 14 263 14 246 23 249 23 275 20 294 49562 47299 17 275 13 254 18 256 22 287 29 301 47299 45258 14 276 14 301 20 288 22 296 31 317 45258 43412 25 319 25 313 18 298 29 328 37 330 43412 41739 23 325 23 337 34 341 55 334 41 340 41739 40196 33 005 47 347 54 343 58 340 48 351 40196 38754 47 356 57 345 61 350 68 350 64 342 38754 37407 57 352 71 351 71 357 75 350 67 342 37407 36117 60 355 86 350 84 357 77 349 60 345 36117 34812 64 359 83 350 87 354 74 354 55 360 34812 33466 69 356 73 353 83 355 66 003 63 011 33466 32086 76 355 67 358 73 356 68 004 64 007 32086 30656 74 358 66 004 66 358 65 356 66 360 30656 29163 66 004 67 009 63 004 54 352 65 359 29163 27604 64 011 69 014 63 011 50 352 60 005 27604 25980 67 015 66 014 63 013 48 349 52 002 25980 24297 69 013 61 013 58 009 41 349 44 350 24297 22563 68 011 56 012 50 006 39 355 38 347 22563 20773 67 017 53 010 42 007 37 359 32 352 20773 18917 61 025 50 008 39 006 31 359 26 355 18917 17035 49 023 47 009 37 004 30 359 22 358 17035 15227 44 014 46 014 36 009 29 005 22 006 15227 13585 42 009 45 019 35 019 27 018 20 020 13585 12123 40 009 40 018 33 029 23 030 18 033 12123 10819 36 010 33 014 29 035 20 040 14 043 10819 9656 30 011 25 012 25 034 17 043 12 051 9656 8619 23 009 18 016 18 024 15 037 11 057 8619 7697 21 010 13 020 12 007 13 008 10 053 7697 6881 25 010 13 018 10*344 11 352 9 027 6881 6158 27 001 15 007 9*341 9 351 10 002 6158 5507 24 351 14*359 9 341 8 355 9 003 5507 4927 24 337 9*352 9 341 8 358 7 017 4927 4441 21 327 8 350 9 342 8 359 6 029 4441 4065 17 327 7 351 9 342 8 001 6 031 4065 3805 10 333 7 351 9 343 7 001 5 032 3805 3647 6*340 6 352 8 343 7*003 3*036 3647 3557 1*350 6 351 7 344 6*002 2*042 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography