DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/17 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 64.6 - - - - - 47.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 158 - - 256 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1640 - - 3519 - - - - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4088 - - 5653 - - - - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5043 - - 6922 - - - - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1129 - - 1345 - - - - - 1133 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 263 - - 399 - - - - - 0 W* B/S - - - 13 - - 11 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 6 - - - - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 048 - - 001 - - - - - 332 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 3 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - 4 - - - - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4194 - - -2306 - - - - - -463 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9237 - - 9229 - - - - - 4020 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11799 - - -8309 - - - - - -7431 ODpotential blCL - - - 16842 - - 15231 - - - - - 10988 blCL maxRH - - - 72 - - 71 - - - - - 74 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 64.6 - - - - - 47.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 31.1 - - 36.7 - - - - - 42.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 57.4 - - 62.7 - - - - - 50.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 31.1 - - 36.7 - - - - - 42.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 158 - - 256 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1640 - - 3519 - - - - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 5 - - - - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97550 4 308 11 291 11 306 97550 90317 4 341 8 280 7 312 90317 84691 8 311 15 301 5 282 84691 80000 10 289 10 297 15 305 80000 75987 11 308 18 303 23 305 75987 72457 18 299 16 275 21 285 72457 69232 12 314 19 295 19 303 69232 66247 29 297 33 290 31 290 66247 63491 36 270 35 273 33 272 63491 60828 32 261 27 269 29 279 60828 58044 33 280 32 282 38 295 58044 55153 41 282 41 281 49 288 55153 52392 46 276 46 280 52 280 52392 49906 52 270 51 279 53 278 49906 47677 55 262 58 274 55 277 47677 45655 59 261 61 266 55 273 45655 43808 64 260 61 260 56 273 43808 42109 69 258 63 258 58 272 42109 40545 72 252 68 254 59 267 40545 39093 71 252 68 254 60 263 39093 37737 70 253 66 257 59 259 37737 36438 67 253 65 258 57 255 36438 35127 67 252 64 256 54 253 35127 33775 67 251 63 254 50 256 33775 32385 66 250 62 255 47 258 32385 30941 66 249 61 256 46 259 30941 29434 64 248 59 258 46 261 29434 27865 62 248 58 257 46 263 27865 26234 61 249 57 255 44 263 26234 24543 60 249 55 255 42 264 24543 22796 56 251 51 257 41 267 22796 20988 50 252 46 259 40 266 20988 19115 44 252 42 258 40 262 19115 17213 39 252 40 256 38 261 17213 15385 35 252 39 253 34 264 15385 13723 33 253 38 253 29 266 13723 12245 31 254 34 253 27 262 12245 10929 28 255 29 253 25 253 10929 9753 25 256 25 253 23 247 9753 8701 21 260 18 252 18 244 8701 7765 17 264 11 257 10 242 7765 6935 12 269 4*304 3 249 6935 6198 6 273 5*344 3 322 6198 5536 2*302 6 358 6 019 5536 4947 3*042 7 001 12 037 4947 4453 4 049 7 004 14 030 4453 4073 4 049 7 005 12 020 4073 3809 4 048 7 007 9 007 3809 3649 4 048 7 007 6 349 3649 3557 4 048 6 007 4*332 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography