DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/05 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 56.9 - - 74.3 - - 81.6 - - 80.1 - - 65.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -10 - - 159 - - 264 - - 58 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 155 - - 1311 - - 4160 - - 3108 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 3853 - - 6151 - - 4228 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3558 - - 4714 - - 7563 - - 6511 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 92 - - 1586 - - 2950 - - 3743 - - 873 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 245 - - 426 - - 233 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 21 - - 15 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 2 - - 5 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 198 - - 322 - - 331 - - 001 - - 000 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 7 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -10 - - 5 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6072 - - -7742 - - -6489 - - -8345 - - -7745 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9630 - - 12456 - - 14053 - - 14857 - - 11303 sfcLCL ODpotential -14086 - - -12521 - - -9674 - - -12130 - - -14668 ODpotential blCL 17644 - - 17235 - - 17237 - - 18641 - - 18226 blCL maxRH 80 - - 63 - - 58 - - 43 - - 45 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 56.9 - - 74.3 - - 81.6 - - 80.1 - - 65.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.2 - - 32.3 - - 32.2 - - 27.3 - - 28.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 62.2 - - 72.9 - - 79.6 - - 79.4 - - 69.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.1 - - 32.3 - - 32.1 - - 27.1 - - 28.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -10 - - 159 - - 264 - - 58 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 155 - - 1311 - - 4160 - - 3108 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 19 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97897 18 076 14 070 19 086 19 067 21 089 97897 90637 19 077 13 079 13 074 19 065 22 083 90637 85013 14 060 9 084 8 051 11 073 14 058 85013 80351 13 021 6 064 5 335 7 023 10 058 80351 76340 12 022 9 020 2 343 5 322 11 357 76340 72807 16 359 9 352 10 326 9 342 14 345 72807 69618 17 329 9 341 14 311 15 313 19 326 69618 66684 18 315 12 332 14 306 17 299 20 307 66684 63954 21 309 16 318 16 297 20 302 21 300 63954 61302 23 301 20 308 18 292 22 299 22 293 61302 58539 24 291 24 302 21 293 25 295 23 292 58539 55675 25 289 24 296 23 289 28 295 24 303 55675 52943 23 292 22 294 24 290 26 292 28 300 52943 50492 21 291 18 302 20 295 20 294 26 285 50492 48296 21 294 16 318 17 320 17 312 18 280 48296 46296 19 302 14 334 15 330 22 329 17 303 46296 44460 16 315 12 356 10 346 25 325 23 311 44460 42758 14 324 14 011 11 023 19 327 22 310 42758 41164 14 330 18 019 16 027 17 340 19 315 41164 39667 11 336 15 005 20 020 21 347 20 320 39667 38261 7 004 10 000 20 019 24 351 20 324 38261 36918 12 358 7 009 20 016 23 355 23 332 36918 35572 7 327 11 342 12 358 19 004 20 337 35572 34190 10 241 8 311 11 331 16 354 16 340 34190 32775 8 264 9 251 10 301 14 329 14 324 32775 31311 8 313 8 259 11 291 15 318 12 319 31311 29786 10 323 7 286 13 299 18 316 14 321 29786 28201 9 309 15 288 18 300 18 321 17 317 28201 26555 9 262 16 288 21 308 15 329 17 320 26555 24853 14 275 10 250 12 308 12 328 14 327 24853 23097 16 262 10 263 9 278 10 306 11 326 23097 21283 23 241 8 271 9 275 11 296 11 306 21283 19403 22 244 10 275 11 273 10 302 11 304 19403 17491 16 246 11 270 11 272 8 300 8 298 17491 15648 14 248 11 263 11 266 7 277 8 285 15648 13966 14 254 12 258 13 257 8 270 10 280 13966 12463 15 259 14 254 15 256 11 270 13 277 12463 11122 15 260 15 254 15 260 13 265 13 270 11122 9922 15 259 15 255 14 263 13 266 12 259 9922 8849 14 260 14 259 12 265 11 274 9 266 8849 7893 13 264 12 263 9*272 9 297 7 307 7893 7044 11 270 10 266 6*284 8*331 8 345 7044 6288 9 275 7 267 5 301 9*346 10 003 6288 5606 7 285 4 272 5 336 10 000 12 017 5606 4997 6 286 3*283 5 343 10 003 15 023 4997 4486 7 278 2*306 6 348 10 004 16 022 4486 4092 8 265 2 319 6 351 10 004 15 020 4092 3819 8 242 2 328 6 352 10 005 12 018 3819 3653 6*206 2 331 6 353 10 005 7 009 3653 3558 5*198 2 334 5 354 9 005 4*000 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography