DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/05 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1327z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2152z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 18.5 - - 27.8 - - 32.9 - - 31.8 - - 25.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -30 - - -4 - - 10 - - 0 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 152 - - 152 - - 153 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3539 - - 3539 - - 3539 - - 3539 Hcrit BL Top 3555 - - 3555 - - 3556 - - 3556 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 101 - - 453 - - 1335 - - 1664 - - 375 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 18 - - 50 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 156 - - 166 - - 137 - - 335 - - 221 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - -1 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -504 - - -13 - - 0 - - 0 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4060 - - 3568 - - 3556 - - 3556 - - 3556 sfcLCL ODpotential -7283 - - -3721 - - -1605 - - -2181 - - -3707 ODpotential blCL 10838 - - 7276 - - 5161 - - 5737 - - 7263 blCL maxRH 81 - - 96 - - 95 - - 99 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 18.5 - - 27.8 - - 32.9 - - 31.8 - - 25.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 13.6 - - 24.7 - - 30.4 - - 29.0 - - 22.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 23.2 - - 28.2 - - 32.6 - - 33.3 - - 29.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 17.5 - - 24.2 - - 29.8 - - 28.5 - - 25.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -30 - - -4 - - 10 - - 0 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 152 - - 152 - - 153 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 25 - - 85 - - 80 - - 94 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95802 31 334 26 305 48 313 38 316 41 309 95802 88847 22 347 30 334 33 345 35 330 37 325 88847 83411 22 018 28 357 28 014 24 350 30 338 83411 78828 25 018 21 018 18 014 17 356 21 345 78828 74812 24 002 20 010 17 353 19 345 25 349 74812 71233 19 342 23 345 23 340 23 338 26 343 71233 67979 15 322 19 328 22 329 25 328 27 329 67979 64973 15 325 19 321 20 316 31 320 28 321 64973 62183 22 319 21 320 20 314 32 307 30 323 62183 59486 29 311 24 318 23 314 32 301 30 320 59486 56662 29 305 25 313 27 306 30 305 30 310 56662 53709 28 303 26 310 27 297 28 310 31 303 53709 50881 27 300 26 298 29 294 28 313 30 306 50881 48339 24 302 25 292 31 293 28 313 28 315 48339 46067 27 302 25 301 31 292 26 307 28 315 46067 44008 26 293 23 306 26 295 25 303 27 311 44008 42128 21 290 23 295 22 300 25 300 24 318 42128 40399 21 286 20 285 21 298 21 309 25 331 40399 38809 19 278 15 289 17 278 18 320 27 336 38809 37350 14 272 12 295 9 298 9 340 17 337 37350 36002 10 268 7 310 7 033 15 061 10 026 36002 34725 6 271 4 008 15 062 34 053 31 042 34725 33453 3 030 11 075 29 073 41 051 37 039 33453 32146 9 077 26 081 44 079 40 059 36 043 32146 30805 17 085 45 085 48 079 41 067 33 051 30805 29420 28 085 55 088 49 076 43 072 33 056 29420 27979 36 083 56 086 48 075 44 075 36 058 27979 26481 28 073 53 082 46 076 43 076 37 059 26481 24931 12 053 47 080 43 078 43 076 37 064 24931 23329 5 014 29 077 35 082 38 077 36 068 23329 21680 10 303 7 080 13 073 29 085 33 070 21680 19980 14 282 4 320 10 275 12 047 24 077 19980 18224 7 284 6 297 10 281 11 337 14 067 18224 16446 4 281 1 030 8 334 10 352 9 029 16446 14737 7 233 5 206 1 059 0 034 5 011 14737 13178 12 236 11 214 8 220 3 265 4 347 13178 11787 15 239 12 235 12 210 4 312 5 002 11787 10546 15 237 12 228 10 209 4 354 6 359 10546 9439 12 233 11 208 6 222 5 351 6 348 9439 8449 9 231 10 200 5 248 5 325 7 346 8449 7566 7 230 9 196 4 250 4 304 7 345 7566 6781 5 230 9 191 4 227 4 303 7 344 6781 6081 5 228 9 189 4 206 4 304 6 338 6081 5449 5 232 9 189 5 198 4 304 6 329 5449 4886 6 237 10 190 6 189 3 310 6 316 4886 4413 7 233 10 190 6 173 2 333 5 285 4413 4049 7 209 10 185 5 160 1 357 4 257 4049 3796 10 177 9 178 3 143 2 352 4 245 3796 3643 10*160 6 170 3*137 2*340 4*232 3643 3556 7*156 4*166 2*137 2*335 3*221 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography