DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/19 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1000z - - 1335z - - 1601z - - 1901z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.5 - - 42.5 - - 43.8 - - 39.6 - - 40.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 53 - - 324 - - 270 - - 204 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2216 - - 4722 - - 5820 - - 1705 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 6669 - - 7441 - - 4256 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 5619 - - 8125 - - 9223 - - 5108 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3285 - - 2684 - - 4088 - - 3028 - - 7421 Hgt.Variab. W* 202 - - 476 - - 480 - - 294 - - 31 W* B/S 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 14 - - 22 - - 24 - - 17 - - 12 BL Wind Direction 312 - - 311 - - 321 - - 360 - - 350 Direction Wind Shear 7 - - 7 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 6 - - 12 - - 18 - - 8 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 472 - - 693 - - 1391 - - 1208 - - -2067 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5147 - - 7432 - - 7833 - - 3900 - - 5624 sfcLCL ODpotential -118 - - 142 - - 1047 - - 349 - - -3078 ODpotential blCL 5737 - - 7983 - - 8176 - - 4759 - - 6634 blCL maxRH 100 - - 91 - - 100 - - 95 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 40 - - 100 - - 250 - - 140 CAPE Temp@2m 37.5 - - 42.5 - - 43.8 - - 39.6 - - 40.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.6 - - 22.4 - - 22.0 - - 35.1 - - 28.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.0 - - 40.6 - - 42.2 - - 38.2 - - 40.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.6 - - 22.3 - - 22.0 - - 34.4 - - 27.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 53 - - 324 - - 270 - - 204 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2216 - - 4722 - - 5820 - - 1705 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 65 - - 101 - - 80 - - 5 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97964 15 112 15 121 12 139 14 088 11 106 97964 90495 9 088 13 119 16 107 13 111 17 099 90495 84757 11 080 10 095 11 102 7 094 14 071 84757 79999 12 080 7 087 11 073 4 048 10 065 79999 75920 12 039 4 044 11 049 7 036 7 049 75920 72320 15 049 3 029 10 358 10 024 10 077 72320 69047 12 337 7 037 7 311 12 356 15 048 69047 66011 6 339 7 333 12 280 17 351 14 042 66011 63178 15 340 8 030 2 305 15 312 17 004 63178 60429 19 319 20 333 13 006 11 312 15 342 60429 57557 22 337 17 315 23 322 14 321 18 325 57557 54577 34 327 18 358 28 318 23 330 32 326 54577 51749 46 313 38 325 42 314 45 317 37 318 51749 49219 57 307 54 306 46 315 44 317 40 327 49219 46948 62 312 64 310 51 323 49 323 57 326 46948 44887 84 309 88 311 69 318 68 317 70 318 44887 43009 112 294 115 298 98 310 86 313 81 319 43009 41284 116 288 120 288 118 302 102 306 92 316 41284 39685 112 293 113 292 116 295 107 302 98 312 39685 38191 114 309 111 305 111 303 104 308 95 312 38191 36790 126 318 130 319 126 316 113 318 95 314 36790 35448 130 318 141 320 143 319 125 321 96 316 35448 34098 130 315 134 315 144 316 135 322 98 320 34098 32713 129 311 127 309 143 314 144 322 107 324 32713 31299 127 307 126 307 141 312 145 320 118 327 31299 29840 125 306 126 306 140 311 142 315 124 327 29840 28326 121 306 126 305 135 310 141 313 128 326 28326 26758 116 300 126 304 130 310 139 312 123 326 26758 25140 120 296 125 304 124 309 134 311 107 326 25140 23479 122 294 125 304 122 304 130 308 85 326 23479 21781 121 295 127 301 124 301 128 312 64 328 21781 20041 119 298 126 301 124 304 102 320 52 333 20041 18257 110 304 113 307 107 312 62 325 37 346 18257 16467 89 312 82 315 69 321 37 320 25 014 16467 14762 65 318 52 320 36 323 30 323 20 028 14762 13217 50 317 38 319 24 321 24 333 16 024 13217 11838 42 312 34 314 23 321 23 337 15 018 11838 10603 35 306 27 308 23 322 22 340 16 015 10603 9495 28 304 23 304 25*320 22 342 17 011 9495 8501 26 304 22*305 25*320 22 344 19 006 8501 7611 25 305 22*307 25 320 22 345 20 001 7611 6820 23 306 22 308 25 320 22 347 21 356 6820 6114 20*307 22 310 25 321 21 349 22 354 6114 5476 17*309 23 311 25 321 21*352 22 353 5476 4907 15 311 22 312 24 321 19*356 22 352 4907 4428 14 312 22 313 24 321 19 359 21 352 4428 4058 14 312 21 313 23 321 18 001 20 352 4058 3802 13 313 21 314 22 321 16 002 18 351 3802 3646 12 314 19 314 21 321 15 003 16 351 3646 3556 10 314 16 314 17 321 13 003 12*350 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography