DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/15 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.9 - - 53.4 - - 61.3 - - 60.1 - - 49.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 114 - - 471 - - 557 - - 319 - - 42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1790 - - 4061 - - 7199 - - 6016 - - 2226 BL Depth Hcrit 3999 - - 6287 - - 8867 - - 7678 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 5193 - - 7464 - - 10602 - - 9419 - - 5629 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1831 - - 1150 - - 2030 - - 2677 - - 2992 Hgt.Variab. W* 243 - - 513 - - 657 - - 514 - - 188 W* B/S 19 - - 22 - - 10 - - 5 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 4 - - 12 - - 18 - - 19 BL Wind Direction 007 - - 302 - - 303 - - 286 - - 294 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 6 - - 14 - - 7 - - 8 Wind Shear Max.Converg 3 - - -6 - - 17 - - 19 - - 12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 109 - - -1515 - - -1382 - - -1716 - - -992 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5085 - - 8979 - - 11985 - - 11135 - - 6622 sfcLCL ODpotential -510 - - -4723 - - -3331 - - -3294 - - -2053 ODpotential blCL 5703 - - 12187 - - 13933 - - 12713 - - 7682 blCL maxRH 95 - - 67 - - 66 - - 93 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 43.9 - - 53.4 - - 61.3 - - 60.1 - - 49.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.2 - - 26.4 - - 20.6 - - 23.4 - - 33.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.9 - - 50.7 - - 58.3 - - 58.0 - - 49.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.1 - - 26.2 - - 20.5 - - 23.4 - - 33.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 114 - - 471 - - 557 - - 319 - - 42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1790 - - 4061 - - 7199 - - 6016 - - 2226 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 82 - - 0 - - 0 - - 72 - - 51 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98174 6 087 3 261 6 066 3 228 9 308 98174 90711 5 106 2 252 2 223 5 301 6 346 90711 84968 1 105 5 133 8 216 4 334 8 007 84968 80216 4 108 4 151 5 242 5 310 6 019 80216 76130 5 034 3 249 4 255 4 317 6 016 76130 72510 4 023 6 242 10 275 9 302 9 354 72510 69216 8 333 0 271 7 216 11 266 10 339 69216 66162 13 280 14 293 8 286 15 273 16 292 66162 63322 16 274 15 271 12 292 3 279 12 283 63322 60550 21 275 21 272 27 285 16 308 18 279 60550 57645 26 281 28 272 33 279 35 287 29 277 57645 54644 33 277 35 268 39 273 38 279 32 276 54644 51790 37 272 38 263 42 270 38 278 31 279 51790 49224 42 269 39 264 43 272 39 276 36 280 49224 46935 45 274 45 275 43 273 35 273 38 281 46935 44870 56 280 49 279 46 286 42 286 43 283 44870 42991 64 280 60 283 60 282 53 284 47 281 42991 41271 74 277 67 276 60 275 59 285 55 290 41271 39692 74 272 65 284 63 279 68 288 71 290 39692 38237 71 282 75 289 71 282 76 286 79 286 38237 36888 81 288 75 287 73 284 76 284 80 284 36888 35599 83 287 72 288 72 283 75 285 78 282 35599 34303 78 288 72 290 70 281 73 281 75 281 34303 32970 75 290 72 292 67 283 69 278 72 279 32970 31603 74 290 72 293 66 284 68 282 70 275 31603 30185 71 289 70 294 64 283 67 285 67 273 30185 28705 68 287 68 295 62 282 65 283 65 272 28705 27164 67 286 66 294 61 282 64 282 61 271 27164 25563 65 289 65 291 61 283 63 281 58 271 25563 23906 58 291 62 292 60 284 61 280 54 272 23906 22198 51 287 55 287 57 284 58 280 50 274 22198 20437 51 285 50 280 53 279 54 278 46 276 20437 18621 50 288 49 280 51 277 48 276 41 276 18621 16786 41 290 42 284 48 278 41 274 35 278 16786 15028 32 287 33 287 41 275 34 271 30 279 15028 13433 29 286 27 288 34 268 28 268 27 278 13433 12011 27 289 26 289 26 267 25 266 25 275 12011 10741 24 292 25 288 19*270 22 267 25 271 10741 9605 22 295 23 285 17*274 18*271 25 268 9605 8589 19 294 17 276 15 280 18*275 23 263 8589 7683 15 289 9*268 14 288 18 279 22 264 7683 6878 10 279 6*271 12 303 18 282 21 270 6878 6159 6 272 5 280 12 313 18 287 20*276 6159 5510 4*275 4 298 12 318 19 290 20*286 5510 4931 2*324 4 310 12 322 19 292 20 293 4931 4444 2 008 4 321 12 326 18 293 19 295 4444 4067 2 012 4 329 12 328 18 294 19 298 4067 3807 2 016 4 333 12 328 18 295 18 299 3807 3648 2 018 4 333 12 330 17 295 17 299 3648 3557 2 019 4 334 11 330 14 295 13 300 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography