DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 57.1 - - 67.9 - - 70.0 - - 58.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 218 - - 356 - - 150 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2152 - - 4487 - - 4252 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4596 - - 6526 - - 5946 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5555 - - 7890 - - 7655 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 818 - - 1524 - - 3356 - - 2009 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 324 - - 484 - - 357 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 7 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 11 - - 14 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 357 - - 038 - - 027 - - 346 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 6 - - 12 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 189 - - -750 - - -1701 - - -3189 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5366 - - 8640 - - 9356 - - 6747 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2775 - - -2810 - - -3070 - - -7796 ODpotential blCL - - - 8330 - - 10700 - - 10725 - - 11354 blCL maxRH - - - 87 - - 74 - - 82 - - 80 maxRH CAPE - - - 40 - - 190 - - 230 - - 280 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 57.1 - - 67.9 - - 70.0 - - 58.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 45.9 - - 42.2 - - 41.2 - - 41.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 55.4 - - 65.4 - - 68.7 - - 59.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 45.4 - - 42.1 - - 41.1 - - 41.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 218 - - 356 - - 150 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2152 - - 4487 - - 4252 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 47 - - 0 - - 28 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99099 17 243 16 259 11 252 15 249 99099 91692 15 236 17 232 19 248 15 260 91692 85941 18 248 17 241 19 248 16 269 85941 81143 19 263 17 260 15 255 15 270 81143 76995 14 243 16 255 16 256 15 274 76995 73335 11 243 15 238 19 260 14 281 73335 70033 12 256 13 244 15 253 11 271 70033 66995 10 262 13 252 14 250 13 256 66995 64175 8 258 12 252 14 259 11 252 64175 61446 7 244 11 246 13 250 8 242 61446 58591 6 241 11 235 9 245 10 226 58591 55622 4 272 8 214 6 239 8 222 55622 52782 3 347 3 212 3 229 6 226 52782 50220 4 034 3 264 1 116 5 171 50220 47923 5 060 2 232 3 084 9 114 47923 45841 11 071 6 126 5 113 13 095 45841 43933 14 068 13 091 11 098 12 092 43933 42173 17 065 21 081 14 108 9 105 42173 40537 23 064 26 076 21 104 9 127 40537 39012 26 063 31 073 25 093 13 133 39012 37584 30 063 33 069 23 085 18 129 37584 36220 34 064 34 070 20 098 23 122 36220 34857 35 067 33 067 21 105 25 111 34857 33474 37 071 30 070 18 111 21 121 33474 32072 37 074 28 077 19 157 23 164 32072 30632 35 076 23 084 29 168 32 169 30632 29141 33 072 16 112 32 168 31 168 29141 27598 22 064 17 135 33 172 30 167 27598 25999 8 091 17 122 35 177 30 168 25999 24347 13 128 17 113 34 178 29 166 24347 22642 20 125 20 108 27 176 29 165 22642 20880 20 124 23 107 22 167 29 167 20880 19057 21 113 23 122 26 156 28 165 19057 17202 25 113 24 136 32 147 29 152 17202 15411 23 126 23 137 32 145 29 144 15411 13772 22 136 21 134 28 141 27 141 13772 12306 22 124 22 131 22 133 23 141 12306 10992 20 108 23 116 15 116 18 132 10992 9813 15 093 21 095 11 087 13 107 9813 8758 11 077 16*073 11 065 10 065 8758 7816 12 069 13*056 11*057 11 058 7816 6980 15 067 12 052 13*040 13 059 6980 6236 13*060 11 041 13 035 14 056 6236 5567 8*021 11 035 14 028 14 049 5567 4970 8 357 10 030 14 025 14 038 4970 4469 8 354 10 025 14 023 14 025 4469 4082 8 352 10 022 14 021 14 013 4082 3814 8 351 10 020 14 020 13 001 3814 3651 8 351 9 019 13 020 11*352 3651 3558 7 350 8 018 12 019 7*346 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography