DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 07/13 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 68.3 - - 84.1 - - 90.7 - - 91.2 - - 84.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 75 - - 384 - - 478 - - 261 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 498 - - 6572 - - 9893 - - 10932 - - 156 BL Depth Hcrit 3542 - - 8205 - - 11002 - - 11485 - - 3543 Hcrit BL Top 3901 - - 9975 - - 13296 - - 14335 - - 3559 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 762 - - 2045 - - 3014 - - 3459 - - 9160 Hgt.Variab. W* 139 - - 564 - - 695 - - 589 - - 19 W* B/S 16 - - 8 - - 10 - - 9 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 12 - - 13 - - 11 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 200 - - 218 - - 231 - - 231 - - 345 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 15 - - 9 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 10 - - 3 - - -6 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5594 - - -3632 - - -2562 - - -1911 - - -9252 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9496 - - 13608 - - 15859 - - 16247 - - 12812 sfcLCL ODpotential -11606 - - -7203 - - -4231 - - -3535 - - -11369 ODpotential blCL 15507 - - 17178 - - 17527 - - 17870 - - 14928 blCL maxRH 37 - - 61 - - 85 - - 80 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 60 CAPE Temp@2m 68.3 - - 84.1 - - 90.7 - - 91.2 - - 84.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.4 - - 36.4 - - 32.6 - - 31.4 - - 40.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 67.5 - - 81.5 - - 87.6 - - 89.1 - - 84.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.4 - - 36.2 - - 32.6 - - 31.5 - - 40.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 75 - - 384 - - 478 - - 261 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 498 - - 6572 - - 9893 - - 10932 - - 156 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 39 - - 19 - - 41 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99840 41 101 34 116 32 114 29 104 36 098 99840 92222 32 095 29 117 27 113 25 103 26 104 92222 86382 26 099 24 107 25 109 22 115 24 108 86382 81560 20 101 18 109 19 108 25 116 21 103 81560 77397 18 108 15 123 13 108 20 106 20 110 77397 73717 17 113 14 126 11 115 12 091 18 113 73717 70399 17 124 12 134 13 136 3 095 16 097 70399 67358 9 093 13 119 13 149 10 183 6 115 67358 64547 3 246 5 088 14 133 12 143 10 131 64547 61823 6 141 9 181 7 141 6 183 6 183 61823 59002 12 218 15 177 14 194 20 205 17 212 59002 56095 23 217 26 218 22 217 19 202 22 209 56095 53306 40 222 42 215 44 219 29 223 28 209 53306 50789 56 216 52 211 57 211 51 223 40 218 50789 48555 55 217 49 211 55 203 59 211 54 214 48555 46544 56 232 54 229 52 220 56 212 53 212 46544 44695 75 232 76 228 70 230 65 228 60 226 44695 42979 87 224 85 221 83 223 79 226 77 228 42979 41382 88 221 87 218 87 217 89 221 89 223 41382 39888 88 221 88 217 90 217 94 219 93 221 39888 38486 90 220 88 218 90 218 93 220 96 219 38486 37140 92 221 89 220 91 217 94 220 102 219 37140 35781 89 224 87 223 93 218 95 222 99 221 35781 34380 78 227 77 226 88 225 86 229 88 223 34380 32943 69 225 67 225 75 230 70 228 80 224 32943 31457 65 221 64 218 63 225 63 210 74 224 31457 29908 62 221 62 219 55 218 63 207 72 221 29908 28302 61 223 60 220 56 218 61 214 71 220 28302 26639 59 224 57 222 59 219 57 226 66 223 26639 24923 53 224 49 224 55 220 49 226 58 228 24923 23159 45 225 44 219 48 223 43 228 47 231 23159 21346 40 226 42 218 43 228 36 231 36 229 21346 19473 38 229 38 224 38 232 30 229 29 228 19473 17572 38 234 36 233 32 236 25 223 24 225 17572 15739 40 239 35 243 28 240 19*212 20 209 15739 14067 40 244 35 249 23*237 14*207 18 191 14067 12571 38 246 34 249 17*227 13 209 15 185 12571 11230 32 245 29*243 14 223 13 212 12 188 11230 10026 27 243 20*231 14 224 12 220 8 198 10026 8945 22 239 17 222 13 225 11 232 5 221 8945 7977 18 234 14 216 13 229 11 239 4 268 7977 7115 14 226 12 214 12 232 11 245 5 309 7115 6346 11 214 11 213 12 235 11 249 8 327 6346 5651 9 201 10 213 11 238 11 253 10 336 5651 5031 7 187 9 213 11 241 11 255 11 339 5031 4509 5 192 8 214 11 244 11 257 12 342 4509 4106 3*201 7 214 10 245 11 258 12 343 4106 3827 2*198 7 215 10 246 11 259 12 343 3827 3657 1 199 7 215 10 247 11 259 11 344 3657 3559 1 202 6 215 9 247 10 260 8*345 3559 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography