DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/18 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 44.6 - - 51.1 - - 48.0 - - 45.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - -41 - - -43 - - -86 - - -117 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 805 - - 2281 - - 2185 - - 1419 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 25 - - 52 - - 37 - - 35 W* B/S - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 24 - - 17 - - 19 BL Wind Direction - - - 238 - - 244 - - 243 - - 241 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -3 - - -3 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1 - - -678 - - -587 - - -283 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3557 - - 4235 - - 4144 - - 3840 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4825 - - -6394 - - -6638 - - -5724 ODpotential blCL - - - 8382 - - 9951 - - 10195 - - 9281 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 79 - - 81 - - 79 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 44.6 - - 51.1 - - 48.0 - - 45.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 42.0 - - 44.4 - - 41.8 - - 40.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 46.8 - - 51.8 - - 49.9 - - 47.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 41.7 - - 43.6 - - 41.3 - - 39.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - -41 - - -43 - - -86 - - -117 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 95 - - 17 - - 23 - - 17 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96515 30 065 18 052 26 052 20 073 96515 89476 24 061 22 057 20 048 19 063 89476 83949 20 022 18 031 16 054 17 053 83949 79317 17 016 16 358 13 357 16 010 79317 75302 14 341 8 309 8 328 11 338 75302 71748 6 176 13 292 17 317 14 324 71748 68532 22 328 23 311 12 289 17 263 68532 65571 38 318 23 327 12 222 14 226 65571 62771 39 309 28 321 10 254 26 309 62771 60028 38 298 45 299 50 294 56 292 60028 57215 41 291 57 288 65 286 66 285 57215 54333 44 295 62 285 66 281 69 278 54333 51592 56 300 67 287 65 284 67 279 51592 49129 74 304 76 291 74 292 74 288 49129 46925 99 300 94 291 91 290 90 289 46925 44932 109 290 106 284 101 281 99 282 44932 43115 98 286 104 277 97 274 97 274 43115 41449 90 294 93 276 88 274 92 267 41449 39907 96 300 86 282 85 279 88 268 39907 38467 101 300 85 288 90 283 93 276 38467 37118 101 297 87 291 94 285 104 281 37118 35824 100 295 87 291 96 286 107 279 35824 34516 100 293 86 291 97 286 103 278 34516 33162 98 291 89 292 100 284 102 278 33162 31770 95 289 92 291 102 280 105 277 31770 30328 94 287 95 288 104 279 106 278 30328 28828 95 287 99 285 103 279 106 277 28828 27270 95 287 101 284 101 280 107 277 27270 25656 94 288 98 284 97 280 101 278 25656 23993 95 289 94 285 93 280 90 277 23993 22285 94 289 90 287 90 280 86 276 22285 20523 88 291 86 287 89 280 89 276 20523 18699 79 291 84 287 89 280 89 278 18699 16852 69 287 83 285 89 278 81 279 16852 15083 63 283 82 282 88 278 73 280 15083 13478 63 283 82 281 87 278 68 279 13478 12050 66 284 81 280 85 278 69 278 12050 10773 69 283 80 279 83 278 72 275 10773 9631 70 279 79 277 82 274 76 271 9631 8609 72 275 78 273 82 269 79 267 8609 7696 73 269 78 267 82 263 80 263 7696 6885 73 263 79 260 79 257 80 257 6885 6163 69 258 77 255 75 252 77 252 6163 5512 63 255 73 252 69 248 71 248 5512 4932 55 252 66 249 62 246 64 244 4932 4444 46 250 58 247 54 244 56 242 4444 4067 37 248 50 246 45 243 48 241 4067 3807 28 246 42 245 36 243 39 241 3807 3648 22*245 36*244 29*243 32*241 3648 3557 9*238 24*244 17*243 19*241 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography