DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/12 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.0 - - 59.5 - - 68.0 - - 62.5 - - 51.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 44 - - 123 - - -38 - - -43 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 612 - - 4020 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 5655 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4015 - - 7423 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 147 - - 1624 - - 2197 - - 5649 - - 159 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 124 - - 328 - - 12 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 13 - - 24 - - 9 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 154 - - 182 - - 200 - - 181 - - 145 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -7 - - 13 - - -6 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4728 - - -8461 - - -6395 - - -8947 - - -7092 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8286 - - 12476 - - 13819 - - 12506 - - 10649 sfcLCL ODpotential -14151 - - -14035 - - -9926 - - -13280 - - -13858 ODpotential blCL 17708 - - 18050 - - 17349 - - 16838 - - 17415 blCL maxRH 83 - - 70 - - 71 - - 74 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.0 - - 59.5 - - 68.0 - - 62.5 - - 51.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 19.0 - - 17.5 - - 19.3 - - 20.0 - - 18.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.6 - - 59.0 - - 67.1 - - 64.4 - - 55.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 18.9 - - 17.4 - - 19.2 - - 19.9 - - 17.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 44 - - 123 - - -38 - - -43 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 612 - - 4020 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 30 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 27 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96029 28 304 17 316 16 304 15 321 13 299 96029 89078 17 301 13 308 15 293 13 310 7 327 89078 83675 9 324 7 306 14 308 11 312 10 314 83675 79140 10 325 10 277 15 276 13 274 12 300 79140 75207 9 356 3 306 5 265 10 270 12 303 75207 71701 12 293 14 288 9 268 9 266 10 274 71701 68508 9 262 15 274 10 280 8 278 8 259 68508 65565 4 327 11 247 15 261 10 288 8 267 65565 62819 20 284 17 244 21 248 18 263 15 262 62819 60147 21 256 23 270 23 270 16 245 18 253 60147 57341 28 243 26 251 22 270 19 250 24 246 57341 54409 30 236 29 239 32 240 38 244 34 230 54409 51605 38 241 39 237 47 232 51 226 43 227 51605 49094 62 242 54 237 55 232 58 226 51 231 49094 46857 79 236 69 232 64 233 62 232 55 231 46857 44839 78 232 76 226 75 228 70 230 57 229 44839 42999 80 231 79 224 82 221 75 218 64 227 42999 41304 88 227 83 225 83 217 77 211 71 218 41304 39737 88 228 82 228 80 216 76 209 71 208 39737 38287 88 233 80 230 77 217 74 209 71 204 38287 36943 86 234 79 229 75 218 70 210 72 205 36943 35663 80 230 79 226 71 218 60 208 68 207 35663 34372 79 225 79 223 70 218 60 211 63 208 34372 33036 79 221 78 221 72 218 67 215 67 211 33036 31662 74 218 75 218 72 219 69 217 71 215 31662 30238 66 215 70 216 69 220 67 216 71 216 30238 28755 58 215 63 213 64 218 62 213 69 216 28755 27218 50 216 56 211 59 215 58 211 65 216 27218 25627 45 215 50 210 55 211 55 209 60 216 25627 23987 43 214 45 211 51 207 52 208 55 215 23987 22300 42 214 40 213 46 204 49 208 51 211 22300 20560 40 212 37 214 41 203 47 209 50 207 20560 18759 38 209 36 214 40 204 46 210 50 203 18759 16930 36 207 36 213 41 207 45 213 50 203 16930 15168 35 207 36 212 42 210 44 215 50 205 15168 13563 34 208 36 212 41 213 43 218 51 209 13563 12130 34 210 36 213 41 217 43 220 53 212 12130 10852 33 212 36 215 41 220 43 219 55 212 10852 9706 32 215 36 217 40 220 41 215 55 210 9706 8679 31 218 36 218 36 218 37 209 52 207 8679 7760 30 221 37 218 31*212 34 203 49 204 7760 6942 30 222 36 216 27*205 32 198 44 202 6942 6210 31 222 34 213 26 203 30 196 40 200 6210 5549 31 219 30 210 25 201 29 194 37 198 5549 4958 28 215 25 204 24 200 27 192 33 195 4958 4461 23 209 20 195 23 198 25 190 27 190 4461 4076 17 198 17*188 22 197 22 187 22 179 4076 3811 13 184 15*183 21 197 18 185 17 163 3811 3649 9*167 13 182 19 196 14*183 13 154 3649 3557 6*154 10 181 15 196 9*181 7*145 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography