DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/21 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.9 - - 61.0 - - 71.7 - - 70.5 - - 54.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -20 - - 106 - - 198 - - 2 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 748 - - 4372 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 6180 - - 3542 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4151 - - 7775 - - 3558 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 58 - - 929 - - 4651 - - 9080 - - 268 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 178 - - 394 - - 26 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 13 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 175 - - 172 - - 135 - - 084 - - 265 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -3 - - -3 - - 0 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1757 - - -6125 - - -4384 - - -8308 - - -4201 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5314 - - 10276 - - 12159 - - 11866 - - 7759 sfcLCL ODpotential -9979 - - -9981 - - -6312 - - -10309 - - -9435 ODpotential blCL 13536 - - 14132 - - 14087 - - 13867 - - 12993 blCL maxRH 78 - - 82 - - 76 - - 68 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.9 - - 61.0 - - 71.7 - - 70.5 - - 54.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.5 - - 28.6 - - 30.4 - - 30.7 - - 33.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.2 - - 60.1 - - 70.0 - - 70.3 - - 59.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.5 - - 28.6 - - 30.3 - - 30.6 - - 33.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -20 - - 106 - - 198 - - 2 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 748 - - 4372 - - 155 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 12 - - 28 - - 5 - - 0 - - 20 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97448 3 326 6 307 6 252 10 277 21 331 97448 90261 0 276 8 262 7 304 4 320 3 317 90261 84703 6 171 7 201 7 254 5 359 3 119 84703 80068 3 265 6 197 10 223 10 292 5 304 80068 76059 8 281 4 224 11 225 12 252 12 272 76059 72500 12 243 6 294 11 217 15 221 16 249 72500 69265 15 223 12 242 15 234 12 240 13 221 69265 66276 13 223 15 236 16 224 14 252 12 246 66276 63482 17 222 17 227 13 227 15 221 16 236 63482 60761 17 225 15 207 18 227 18 219 23 237 60761 57912 23 224 19 207 23 213 22 219 26 230 57912 54947 29 219 25 217 26 219 24 221 25 224 54947 52124 30 207 31 216 28 225 26 221 24 230 52124 49594 25 209 32 210 31 223 27 227 23 235 49594 47328 29 223 29 210 30 216 29 222 23 235 47328 45275 38 201 24 221 25 212 27 215 32 216 45275 43411 35 185 26 231 22 220 25 216 30 207 43411 41706 24 181 28 223 26 219 24 223 25 213 41706 40127 18 211 25 217 28 214 27 228 27 222 40127 38658 22 217 23 214 27 212 29 221 27 220 38658 37304 20 203 21 206 25 213 29 212 22 236 37304 36022 19 184 18 197 26 217 35 224 28 244 36022 34733 16 178 14 195 29 223 48 219 44 222 34733 33402 12 187 14 206 34 228 53 217 45 222 33402 32033 13 193 14 208 37 228 48 216 39 216 32033 30612 17 189 14 211 34 222 42 209 32 204 30612 29131 18 193 15 220 30 215 22 232 22 207 29131 27591 16 213 18 223 27 211 20 204 16 210 27591 25993 16 226 19 227 24 210 19 208 11 211 25993 24337 15 227 18 230 23 219 18 209 12 193 24337 22626 15 224 19 228 23 225 20 211 18 196 22626 20855 15 229 19 224 23 226 19 217 22 204 20855 19021 9 242 17 222 20 222 15 216 19 205 19021 17160 4 249 15 219 14 222 12 209 12 197 17160 15370 3 197 9 205 12 220 9 213 10 177 15370 13740 5 152 5 192 9 208 8 210 8 153 13740 12285 6 150 4 174 7 190 8 201 7 142 12285 10983 6 139 5 159 7 177 7 195 5 148 10983 9815 5 120 5 147 7 168 6 187 4 172 9815 8768 6 120 5 140 7 158 6 171 3 180 8768 7831 7 128 6 137 7*152 5 154 3 158 7831 6996 10 138 7 136 6*147 5 134 5 157 6996 6251 12 145 7 142 6 143 4 120 6 162 6251 5577 12 149 7 165 6 137 4 109 6 162 5577 4977 11 152 7 187 5 133 4 099 5 150 4977 4472 10 155 5*199 5 129 4 093 2 089 4472 4083 8 165 4*185 5 125 4 090 4 031 4083 3814 8 180 3 168 5 123 4 089 3 005 3814 3651 7*181 3 165 4 122 4 087 2*314 3651 3558 6*175 2 164 4 120 4*084 2*265 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography