DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/16 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 67.6 - - 79.4 - - - - - 60.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 192 - - - - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1074 - - 3871 - - - - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3542 - - 5789 - - - - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4477 - - 7274 - - - - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 925 - - 1652 - - - - - 62 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 205 - - 374 - - - - - 12 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 5 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 12 - - 13 - - - - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 173 - - 207 - - - - - 196 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 7 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - 12 - - - - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -11502 - - -12594 - - - - - -11898 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 15980 - - 19869 - - - - - 15457 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -19920 - - -18742 - - - - - -21663 ODpotential blCL - - - 24397 - - 26016 - - - - - 25221 blCL maxRH - - - 68 - - 68 - - - - - 64 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 67.6 - - 79.4 - - - - - 60.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 10.8 - - 4.0 - - - - - 6.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 66.5 - - 78.0 - - - - - 65.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 10.6 - - 3.7 - - - - - 6.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 192 - - - - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1074 - - 3871 - - - - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 1 - - - - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97678 6 144 10 282 12 350 97678 90411 6 128 6 205 5 294 90411 84766 3 325 7 160 6 277 84766 80085 5 301 0 196 11 263 80085 76062 4 264 7 291 9 247 76062 72504 10 241 10 261 8 312 72504 69292 12 240 12 262 12 294 69292 66350 12 248 17 269 15 306 66350 63604 23 252 18 267 25 282 63604 60946 22 233 25 253 38 267 60946 58202 20 234 32 237 44 254 58202 55369 31 255 33 253 44 249 55369 52667 49 259 48 261 49 253 52667 50242 50 253 53 257 54 255 50242 48075 44 253 50 253 58 256 48075 46112 40 256 48 253 57 253 46112 44314 37 257 47 254 54 250 44314 42656 36 256 43 255 55 248 42656 41112 37 255 41 253 60 244 41112 39662 38 253 43 250 60 242 39662 38293 38 254 44 249 57 248 38293 36975 38 254 43 251 55 253 36975 35644 38 258 43 256 52 253 35644 34274 39 265 43 261 49 252 34274 32867 40 269 42 262 48 251 32867 31405 40 269 42 261 46 250 31405 29878 43 269 44 264 44 251 29878 28289 48 266 47 263 43 253 28289 26639 48 259 47 258 43 256 26639 24933 43 252 44 253 44 253 24933 23172 39 245 40 246 43 245 23172 21347 36 237 41 238 44 240 21347 19450 36 233 41 238 44 239 19450 17518 33 227 37 235 41 241 17518 15657 28 220 33 230 35 240 15657 13965 24 213 30 227 30 239 13965 12461 20 210 26 224 25 240 12461 11121 18 212 24 224 21 239 11121 9924 19 216 23 226 18 235 9924 8855 22 218 22 227 17 233 8855 7899 25 217 18*223 16 236 7899 7050 27 215 15*217 16 242 7050 6293 26 214 14 213 15 246 6293 5608 22 212 14 207 14 249 5608 4999 17*201 13 204 13 250 4999 4486 15*182 13 202 11 245 4486 4091 13 172 12 201 10 233 4091 3818 12 170 12 200 9 213 3818 3652 11 168 11 199 7*199 3652 3558 9 168 10 199 7*196 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography