DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/29 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 30.7 - - 43.9 - - 51.0 - - 48.9 - - 38.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 110 - - 229 - - 18 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2100 - - 4398 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 4210 - - 6272 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5503 - - 7801 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 309 - - 1722 - - 1951 - - 5516 - - 885 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 254 - - 415 - - 59 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 6 - - 9 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 186 - - 230 - - 268 - - 014 - - 347 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -4 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -486 - - -714 - - -4134 - - -1562 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 5989 - - 8516 - - 7692 - - 5118 sfcLCL ODpotential -4544 - - -2167 - - -2459 - - -5675 - - -5289 ODpotential blCL 8100 - - 7670 - - 10260 - - 9232 - - 8845 blCL maxRH 84 - - 87 - - 88 - - 84 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 30.7 - - 43.9 - - 51.0 - - 48.9 - - 38.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.8 - - 30.1 - - 25.9 - - 27.5 - - 28.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 34.9 - - 42.9 - - 49.2 - - 48.5 - - 42.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.9 - - 30.0 - - 25.8 - - 27.5 - - 28.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 110 - - 229 - - 18 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2100 - - 4398 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 35 - - 49 - - 53 - - 37 - - 47 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96270 13 310 23 287 22 301 20 293 23 293 96270 89262 4 055 16 314 8 335 9 351 7 316 89262 83818 5 359 7 309 5 268 14 348 7 026 83818 79257 9 318 5 253 11 268 13 307 10 331 79257 75291 11 276 2 209 9 279 6 254 12 296 75291 71749 11 265 6 242 12 273 6 251 10 288 71749 68499 6 276 7 225 11 245 8 230 12 250 68499 65493 12 262 6 233 11 241 9 250 13 246 65493 62693 13 240 10 245 14 246 12 252 8 269 62693 59948 11 268 9 241 10 255 12 247 15 265 59948 57075 19 278 10 257 9 278 11 259 17 250 57075 54105 23 270 21 253 21 248 18 262 15 247 54105 51270 24 266 23 248 25 241 26 256 14 242 51270 48722 29 271 24 253 25 245 31 257 25 249 48722 46458 31 258 30 254 34 248 35 255 31 247 46458 44428 39 253 38 258 37 244 39 254 36 249 44428 42580 47 248 45 258 39 248 44 244 40 247 42580 40881 52 250 53 252 48 250 46 241 45 239 40881 39317 58 255 62 248 58 247 48 243 48 234 39317 37871 66 254 70 247 67 243 53 247 50 235 37871 36523 73 251 74 247 72 239 62 242 55 235 36523 35232 75 249 77 246 73 238 66 238 61 233 35232 33936 76 248 77 245 72 238 68 236 67 231 33936 32607 76 248 77 243 71 238 67 235 70 231 32607 31247 74 248 76 242 74 237 67 233 68 232 31247 29842 72 249 75 242 77 237 68 233 65 233 29842 28384 71 251 72 244 73 238 69 235 62 234 28384 26874 70 253 67 246 64 241 64 237 60 234 26874 25309 69 253 63 247 59 245 56 240 57 235 25309 23690 68 253 61 248 58 246 53 241 52 235 23690 22023 66 254 60 250 60 246 54 239 50 235 22023 20302 62 256 58 250 61 245 56 240 50 234 20302 18519 58 256 51 250 57 246 56 242 50 235 18519 16705 51 256 43 249 51 246 53 243 49 238 16705 14956 43 256 37 248 45 245 49 242 48 241 14956 13363 37 254 33 246 40 241 45 242 45 241 13363 11946 32 251 31 243 36 240 37 238 41 236 11946 10684 28 249 30 240 31 241 26 227 32 226 10684 9556 23 251 27 238 23 241 18 220 21 204 9556 8550 19 252 23 237 14*242 13 227 12 189 8550 7651 15 250 19 238 10*252 8 240 6 187 7651 6851 13 248 15 238 10 256 5 258 3 169 6851 6138 11 248 13*236 9 265 3 315 1 073 6138 5492 10 252 9*235 9 271 5 004 4 026 5492 4918 9 258 8 232 8 275 6 010 7 017 4918 4435 6 264 6 230 8 278 7 011 9 015 4435 4061 3 265 5 227 8 281 7 012 9 013 4061 3804 2 238 5 226 8 282 7 013 8 009 3804 3646 3*190 5 226 7 283 7*014 5 358 3646 3556 3*186 4 225 7 284 6*014 3*347 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography