DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/12 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 67.9 - - 80.0 - - 88.8 - - 90.6 - - 85.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 67 - - 389 - - 491 - - 300 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 583 - - 3399 - - 5570 - - 5927 - - 157 BL Depth Hcrit 3542 - - 5711 - - 7502 - - 7581 - - 3543 Hcrit BL Top 3986 - - 6802 - - 8973 - - 9330 - - 3560 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1144 - - 1366 - - 1449 - - 1821 - - 6422 Hgt.Variab. W* 140 - - 454 - - 579 - - 502 - - 19 W* B/S 29 - - 67 - - 25 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 1 - - 4 - - 8 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 215 - - 347 - - 340 - - 354 - - 015 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -5 - - 3 - - -7 - - 5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4361 - - -6374 - - -7187 - - -6508 - - -9157 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8348 - - 13177 - - 16161 - - 15839 - - 12718 sfcLCL ODpotential -12358 - - -12984 - - -12279 - - -10903 - - -13677 ODpotential blCL 16344 - - 19786 - - 21252 - - 20233 - - 17237 blCL maxRH 45 - - 30 - - 29 - - 30 - - 34 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 67.9 - - 80.0 - - 88.8 - - 90.6 - - 85.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 44.0 - - 34.8 - - 29.9 - - 33.1 - - 41.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 67.0 - - 77.6 - - 85.8 - - 88.2 - - 85.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.9 - - 34.7 - - 29.8 - - 33.0 - - 41.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 67 - - 389 - - 491 - - 300 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 583 - - 3399 - - 5570 - - 5927 - - 157 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99295 31 101 28 107 27 114 23 116 28 086 99295 91812 27 091 23 119 23 116 23 101 21 100 91812 86033 22 090 21 119 18 101 22 101 18 099 86033 81250 20 100 21 106 16 100 21 100 16 090 81250 77145 17 105 16 098 15 093 18 099 16 086 77145 73513 15 108 9 089 14 089 13 084 17 081 73513 70212 16 089 10 112 7 091 10 053 18 063 70212 67180 13 063 12 100 4 132 7 005 14 028 67180 64391 13 023 7 042 5 059 5 000 8 346 64391 61708 15 343 10 343 10 342 9 342 7 333 61708 58912 17 322 14 334 13 316 14 319 13 321 58912 56018 21 312 17 321 16 313 17 311 18 317 56018 53274 25 312 21 312 19 311 20 314 21 318 53274 50816 27 313 23 308 20 306 25 309 26 316 50816 48618 25 310 22 309 20 303 25 306 29 309 48618 46623 20 300 19 312 16 307 26 302 31 309 46623 44795 9 278 14 303 11 314 23 291 32 306 44795 43105 8 081 5 274 6 288 17 287 28 300 43105 41531 14 072 14 102 9 176 12 283 17 293 41531 40057 12 057 19 096 17 128 8 236 9 282 40057 38673 10 062 16 092 19 116 10 177 6 214 38673 37343 10 071 12 100 15 109 11 151 12 158 37343 36000 11 074 11 111 12 117 11 146 12 135 36000 34613 11 088 12 107 13 119 12 142 12 137 34613 33185 10 108 10 103 13 115 12 133 13 138 33185 31705 10 117 9 112 12 117 11 125 12 136 31705 30163 9 110 8 124 11 127 10 129 10 138 30163 28561 7 112 7 118 10 127 10 138 8 146 28561 26898 4 131 5 117 8 127 9 141 8 151 26898 25175 4 124 4 119 7 130 8 139 8 146 25175 23398 4 140 3 121 6 138 6 149 6 136 23398 21559 4 183 1 172 4 156 3 157 3 148 21559 19652 2 323 2 311 1 245 1 184 3 230 19652 17712 4 005 3 350 2 314 2 272 5 260 17712 15842 6 017 4 357 3 310 5 271 7 273 15842 14138 6 020 4 352 4 301 6 279 8 285 14138 12617 5 356 4 350 5 306 6 288 7 296 12617 11259 8 335 5 356 4 313 5 302 5 297 11259 10045 9 329 4 002 3*310 5*337 4 325 10045 8959 8 328 2 356 3*323 6*345 4 355 8959 7988 5 336 2 289 3 328 7 348 6 006 7988 7124 3 012 1*289 4 334 8 352 8 016 7124 6353 3 059 1*302 4 338 8 354 11 019 6353 5656 3 065 1 329 4 343 9 356 13 018 5656 5035 4 061 1 345 5 345 9 357 14 017 5035 4511 3 061 1 351 5 348 10 358 14 016 4511 4107 1*076 2 358 5 350 10 359 14 015 4107 3827 1*209 2 359 5 350 10 359 13 015 3827 3657 1 217 2 360 5 351 9 359 12*015 3657 3560 1 217 2 003 5 351 9 359 9*015 3560 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography