DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 01/23 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1853z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.1 - - 60.1 - - 61.7 - - 66.0 - - 60.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 70 - - 44 - - 2 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 839 - - 1804 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2939 - - 3904 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 290 - - 1836 - - 3116 - - 6879 - - 4706 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 162 - - 180 - - 20 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 8 - - 8 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 150 - - 161 - - 193 - - 266 - - 207 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -4 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2421 - - -797 - - -162 - - -4966 - - -3982 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4565 - - 3736 - - 4066 - - 7111 - - 6126 sfcLCL ODpotential -6941 - - -2812 - - -1224 - - -5951 - - -6266 ODpotential blCL 9084 - - 5751 - - 5128 - - 8095 - - 8410 blCL maxRH 99 - - 99 - - 99 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 40 - - 10 - - 140 - - 30 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.1 - - 60.1 - - 61.7 - - 66.0 - - 60.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.8 - - 51.0 - - 51.1 - - 42.2 - - 41.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.5 - - 59.4 - - 61.1 - - 65.9 - - 62.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.8 - - 50.4 - - 50.7 - - 42.0 - - 40.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 70 - - 44 - - 2 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 839 - - 1804 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 98 - - 96 - - 96 - - 99 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 8 - - 8 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95756 37 281 51 270 61 266 58 264 65 268 95756 88705 30 271 36 264 35 267 40 258 50 276 88705 83314 26 272 26 266 26 272 27 277 35 273 83314 78843 22 282 19 283 21 277 20 293 22 271 78843 74982 18 283 13 296 16 289 14 291 19 287 74982 71557 13 299 5 291 8 284 9 279 19 281 71557 68463 11 300 4 298 6 282 10 282 20 294 68463 65618 9 305 7 276 12 277 14 268 22 287 65618 62975 16 306 8 270 12 267 15 262 19 266 62975 60411 19 290 12 286 16 261 17 264 24 264 60411 57721 17 283 19 280 19 264 21 269 24 261 57721 54898 20 278 21 269 19 258 25 268 27 262 54898 52169 24 267 24 257 23 258 31 251 30 257 52169 49679 27 266 25 260 31 261 27 252 28 262 49679 47414 31 257 31 258 38 252 31 259 29 266 47414 45333 33 249 39 249 41 245 39 250 35 263 45333 43416 33 256 40 247 43 245 40 249 43 251 43416 41651 47 264 46 249 45 246 45 250 42 250 41651 40018 60 247 52 243 48 247 49 244 44 250 40018 38498 57 238 58 238 54 240 49 242 44 243 38498 37085 65 243 69 237 63 235 57 238 42 243 37085 35739 77 237 79 234 76 233 70 233 52 239 35739 34392 76 228 80 231 85 230 83 232 61 233 34392 33017 74 228 80 229 87 226 86 228 70 230 33017 31612 75 231 78 230 84 226 81 225 74 225 31612 30159 73 233 75 231 78 227 78 224 73 222 30159 28640 67 236 69 229 71 224 77 225 70 225 28640 27057 58 234 62 223 69 223 75 228 58 236 27057 25409 47 229 56 222 67 226 66 236 41 238 25409 23697 38 222 47 227 61 232 48 241 31 235 23697 21924 32 215 39 227 52 235 42 238 26 240 21924 20082 31 208 33 215 41 234 39 234 24 246 20082 18166 29 218 33 206 33 227 37 230 25 243 18166 16212 26 230 33 214 29 226 35 228 27 241 16212 14328 24 245 25 228 26 227 34 227 27 238 14328 12615 23 250 19 231 26 226 32 228 25 230 12615 11092 21 253 17 244 24 223 28 228 25 227 11092 9733 18 251 15 253 20 228 24 224 24 225 9733 8521 17 243 13 248 18 237 20 221 20 219 8521 7439 16 236 11 238 14 242 16 226 16 219 7439 6476 14 231 9 224 11 240 14 233 15 227 6476 5622 13 224 8 209 11 233 11 240 15 233 5622 4863 12 216 7 196 11 224 8 245 15 237 4863 4179 12 206 8 186 10*214 6 253 14 241 4179 3573 13 192 9 179 9*201 4 260 12 245 3573 3064 15 178 10*170 8 195 4 263 10 249 3064 2672 16 166 10*165 8 191 4 265 7 251 2672 2402 14 152 9 160 7 189 3 267 4 244 2402 2237 10*148 8 158 7 188 3*267 3*227 2237 2144 5*150 7 158 6 187 3*266 2*207 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography