DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 85.9 - - 90.3 - - 86.7 - - 76.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 468 - - 526 - - 213 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7905 - - 8355 - - 6793 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 8049 - - 8471 - - 6753 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 10005 - - 10455 - - 8893 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1326 - - 1514 - - 1743 - - 4587 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 633 - - 671 - - 464 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 11 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 20 - - 24 - - 10 BL Wind Direction - - - 240 - - 220 - - 223 - - 231 Direction Wind Shear - - - 9 - - 4 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 8 - - -11 - - -13 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4773 - - -7379 - - -6010 - - -8689 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 14779 - - 17835 - - 14903 - - 10834 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9982 - - -11936 - - -11063 - - -14836 ODpotential blCL - - - 19987 - - 22391 - - 19956 - - 16981 blCL maxRH - - - 35 - - 75 - - 52 - - 32 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 85.9 - - 90.3 - - 86.7 - - 76.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 27.6 - - 17.7 - - 27.9 - - 36.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 82.9 - - 87.5 - - 85.3 - - 77.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 27.4 - - 17.5 - - 27.8 - - 36.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 468 - - 526 - - 213 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7905 - - 8355 - - 6793 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98048 11 312 7 303 8 309 17 341 98048 90681 3 330 10 330 9 346 8 329 90681 84998 6 077 5 360 8 042 2 163 84998 80244 0 347 4 299 6 350 4 024 80244 76133 1 147 5 238 9 260 10 343 76133 72516 3 332 5 264 7 290 8 340 72516 69268 4 141 8 262 8 317 7 338 69268 66299 1 289 8 239 9 281 9 312 66299 63542 15 258 12 239 11 243 15 266 63542 60854 23 247 25 247 23 242 25 252 60854 58043 30 246 31 247 30 248 32 248 58043 55129 37 250 36 253 32 254 35 246 55129 52354 46 254 43 256 38 262 39 253 52354 49862 54 255 52 256 48 260 43 260 49862 47640 56 251 55 250 53 256 48 262 47640 45640 54 246 50 257 50 256 45 263 45640 43821 50 250 47 259 43 261 39 272 43821 42149 44 249 40 266 40 269 40 291 42149 40591 35 263 44 272 42 280 45 289 40591 39138 45 283 43 270 45 286 42 272 39138 37782 47 280 39 280 44 287 23 262 37782 36479 39 270 43 285 42 290 19 302 36479 35154 37 276 42 280 41 292 32 332 35154 33780 35 278 41 275 40 291 36 334 33780 32363 33 276 42 273 43 286 32 324 32363 30887 34 271 41 270 45 279 30 318 30887 29337 38 271 40 269 43 274 23 308 29337 27713 36 272 38 270 40 276 23 292 27713 26019 34 273 34 270 38 276 30 281 26019 24259 33 277 27 262 35 271 34 276 24259 22435 30 278 26 258 33 266 37 270 22435 20538 27 278 26 268 34 265 37 263 20538 18564 26 277 25 275 30 267 34 260 18564 16555 25 267 23 266 25 256 29 256 16555 14623 28 243 24 248 25 248 28 253 14623 12865 30 234 24 231 24 239 26 253 12865 11299 21*228 20*216 23 222 24 247 11299 9905 14*227 19*216 23*215 24 232 9905 8662 12 228 19 216 23*217 28 219 8662 7554 11 231 19 218 23 219 31 212 7554 6569 11 236 20 219 24 221 30 212 6569 5697 10 241 20 221 24 223 28 217 5697 4923 9 246 20 222 24 224 27 222 4923 4226 9 250 20 223 24 225 26 226 4226 3606 9 255 21 224 24 226 25 228 3606 3087 8 259 20 224 24 227 23 230 3087 2686 8 261 20 225 23 227 21 232 2686 2410 8 263 19 225 23 227 18 232 2410 2241 8 263 18 225 21 227 15*232 2241 2145 7 264 16 225 17 227 10*231 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography