DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/31 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 62.2 - - 80.6 - - 85.6 - - 81.8 - - 69.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 206 - - 234 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2945 - - 5725 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3822 - - 5977 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 5045 - - 7825 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 140 - - 2184 - - 2770 - - 6537 - - 209 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 346 - - 451 - - 7 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 16 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 9 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 177 - - 253 - - 304 - - 335 - - 019 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6102 - - -6303 - - -6236 - - -12317 - - -10014 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8247 - - 11349 - - 14061 - - 14463 - - 12158 sfcLCL ODpotential -15197 - - -11561 - - -11119 - - -18014 - - -18686 ODpotential blCL 17341 - - 16606 - - 18944 - - 20159 - - 20830 blCL maxRH 43 - - 37 - - 59 - - 22 - - 25 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 62.2 - - 80.6 - - 85.6 - - 81.8 - - 69.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.5 - - 38.3 - - 30.9 - - 25.7 - - 24.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 63.0 - - 79.0 - - 83.8 - - 82.9 - - 75.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.4 - - 38.2 - - 30.8 - - 25.5 - - 24.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 206 - - 234 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2945 - - 5725 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97064 28 269 32 260 41 251 53 266 53 280 97064 89838 33 265 33 267 32 264 39 258 34 276 89838 84290 30 271 29 277 27 280 26 269 23 286 84290 79649 22 275 21 281 21 274 17 278 18 285 79649 75636 14 294 18 282 15 281 15 297 14 297 75636 72098 11 301 17 287 13 305 16 319 16 316 72098 68919 13 339 11 299 11 302 15 315 18 318 68919 66017 17 325 14 317 11 311 13 313 17 313 66017 63335 20 296 22 318 20 327 17 326 16 323 63335 60736 21 300 28 303 28 320 21 325 19 334 60736 58021 29 311 29 294 33 315 29 325 30 328 58021 55213 40 304 34 304 38 312 36 323 35 332 55213 52550 51 298 46 309 43 312 38 322 37 328 52550 50147 56 294 54 303 47 308 41 320 35 322 50147 47968 60 291 60 296 54 301 44 318 43 334 47968 45981 65 289 64 291 59 297 48 313 44 328 45981 44168 69 286 66 288 61 295 49 308 39 318 44168 42499 67 284 64 288 61 290 49 302 32 312 42499 40944 59 285 56 291 57 292 47 300 28 334 40944 39487 52 289 51 295 55 299 43 303 34 331 39487 38116 48 291 51 295 54 301 45 307 43 327 38116 36796 44 292 44 291 50 302 49 309 39 338 36796 35461 42 295 40 293 45 303 49 309 29 005 35461 34078 40 297 39 292 40 305 47 313 36 032 34078 32651 36 293 36 291 38 307 42 321 42 035 32651 31162 33 294 32 286 38 304 40 322 42 035 31162 29600 29 299 28 285 36 301 38 321 32 032 29600 27963 26 301 27 290 32 296 38 323 24 020 27963 26253 24 308 25 294 29 291 35 320 25 010 26253 24472 23 316 22 300 26 291 32 315 30 007 24472 22622 22 322 20 302 23 292 29 313 32 013 22622 20702 22 321 19 302 24 293 29 323 25 355 20702 18707 21 309 19 300 24 301 28 332 24 342 18707 16679 18 297 20 298 20 301 25 331 19 350 16679 14729 16 284 19 292 19 295 21 324 16 351 14729 12957 14 277 17 287 19 291 18 318 15 341 12957 11381 12 275 17 289 16 290 15 316 13 331 11381 9977 11 265 16 291 14 290 13 312 12 322 9977 8724 11 251 13 286 11*286 11 299 12 313 8724 7604 11 244 10 278 9*289 11 287 12 296 7604 6607 9 241 9 263 9 293 10 286 12 288 6607 5724 7 240 7*249 9 297 9 292 11 294 5724 4940 6 236 6*246 9 304 8 304 9 312 4940 4236 6 238 5 248 9 308 8 314 8 337 4236 3611 6 242 4 253 9 312 8 322 9 002 3611 3089 8 231 4 256 9 316 8 328 10 011 3089 2686 9 207 3 262 9 318 8 331 10 012 2686 2409 10 184 3 267 8 319 8 334 9 016 2409 2240 7*174 2 267 8 320 7*334 5 024 2240 2144 4*177 2 270 7 321 5*335 2*019 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography