DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/28 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1328z - - 1556z - - 1856z - - 2153z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.1 - - 90.3 - - 96.7 - - 94.8 - - 83.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 107 - - 442 - - 488 - - 186 - - -40 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 733 - - 8123 - - 11616 - - 11146 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 8197 - - 11106 - - 10059 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2833 - - 10223 - - 13716 - - 13246 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2180 - - 1950 - - 1757 - - 1994 - - 3921 Hgt.Variab. W* 175 - - 626 - - 729 - - 522 - - 6 W* B/S 7 - - 14 - - 11 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 8 - - 12 - - 12 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 153 - - 204 - - 229 - - 237 - - 262 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 12 - - 8 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - 7 - - -7 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -11975 - - -7471 - - -5816 - - -5198 - - -11541 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 14808 - - 17695 - - 19533 - - 18445 - - 13686 sfcLCL ODpotential -17549 - - -11063 - - -8279 - - -7930 - - -16089 ODpotential blCL 20382 - - 21286 - - 21995 - - 21176 - - 18234 blCL maxRH 21 - - 22 - - 26 - - 32 - - 29 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 78.1 - - 90.3 - - 96.7 - - 94.8 - - 83.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.5 - - 18.5 - - 15.9 - - 19.4 - - 31.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.1 - - 87.6 - - 93.6 - - 93.2 - - 85.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.4 - - 18.5 - - 15.8 - - 19.4 - - 31.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 107 - - 442 - - 488 - - 186 - - -40 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 733 - - 8123 - - 11616 - - 11146 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98196 17 068 20 081 19 119 13 115 14 077 98196 90806 23 094 14 094 20 092 19 094 21 090 90806 85099 18 094 18 114 14 098 17 093 22 081 85099 80345 10 091 14 114 15 105 17 085 21 089 80345 76232 7 068 11 106 11 105 20 094 17 086 76232 72622 6 094 8 093 9 114 16 088 11 098 72622 69413 9 104 8 113 5 081 13 074 15 115 69413 66489 4 144 8 118 3 146 5 054 15 109 66489 63773 11 187 8 197 7 184 4 220 6 103 63773 61145 18 190 17 216 15 235 8 259 2 214 61145 58397 19 190 18 215 19 235 16 269 9 281 58397 55521 11 219 13 228 20 243 25 247 20 274 55521 52764 13 249 16 252 23 259 25 264 29 281 52764 50283 18 269 20 261 26 272 33 280 39 288 50283 48062 22 284 22 274 28 279 39 285 50 294 48062 46056 24 294 26 287 32 288 46 289 60 296 46056 44227 27 304 31 295 35 290 53 292 69 295 44227 42539 27 306 31 297 35 287 53 297 67 289 42539 40963 23 319 27 298 34 288 45 298 60 292 40963 39485 22 326 26 303 32 293 37 293 56 298 39485 38093 21 325 26 308 31 297 33 283 51 298 38093 36753 19 329 25 314 29 297 30 281 46 298 36753 35399 18 339 23 323 24 294 28 280 37 291 35399 34001 18 348 19 335 19 300 25 272 32 279 34001 32562 18 349 15 341 17 311 19 273 27 269 32562 31067 17 346 13 346 15 319 15 282 22 264 31067 29506 16 341 12 347 11 329 13 294 17 269 29506 27878 17 334 11 344 10 338 9 301 11 278 27878 26182 15 333 10 340 9 335 6 325 7 286 26182 24421 12 344 7 001 11 326 8 358 5 311 24421 22601 8 339 6 348 8 334 11 347 8 312 22601 20712 8 005 4 019 8 342 10 359 6 311 20712 18743 5 013 5 083 2 034 6 023 5 337 18743 16728 8 263 0 062 2 157 4 124 4 320 16728 14783 17 235 10 228 12*204 11*179 8 167 14783 13016 19 224 20 215 13*210 10*198 14 149 13016 11443 19 215 22*212 13 212 10 201 11 146 11443 10037 17 211 15*205 13 216 10 213 7 159 10037 8779 14 213 13 202 13 222 11 233 4 199 8779 7654 12 213 12 202 12 229 12 241 6 242 7654 6651 9 205 9 203 12 234 13 246 9 259 6651 5762 7 191 8 204 13 238 14 249 13 263 5762 4972 5 177 6 205 13 241 14 252 17 264 4972 4261 5 164 6 205 13 244 15 253 20 263 4261 3631 5 162 5 206 13 245 15 254 22 263 3631 3102 6*159 4 208 12 247 15 255 23 263 3102 2695 5*155 3 209 12 248 15 255 22 263 2695 2414 5 153 3 210 12 248 14 255 19 263 2414 2243 4 150 3 210 12 249 14 256 15 263 2243 2145 4 151 3 211 11 249 12 256 9*262 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography