DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/08 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.9 - - 77.8 - - 83.9 - - 83.5 - - 73.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 288 - - 348 - - 57 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3864 - - 11453 - - 11772 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4647 - - 10769 - - 9180 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5964 - - 13553 - - 13872 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 103 - - 6363 - - 1892 - - 2324 - - 2667 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 424 - - 649 - - 360 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 18 - - 15 - - 13 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 188 - - 133 - - 143 - - 145 - - 238 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 10 - - 14 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -14 - - 2 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7383 - - -6793 - - -698 - - -596 - - -9617 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9526 - - 12758 - - 14252 - - 14468 - - 11761 sfcLCL ODpotential -14131 - - -8423 - - -1777 - - -1201 - - -12116 ODpotential blCL 16274 - - 14387 - - 15330 - - 15073 - - 14260 blCL maxRH 59 - - 53 - - 66 - - 82 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.9 - - 77.8 - - 83.9 - - 83.5 - - 73.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.6 - - 28.7 - - 27.8 - - 26.5 - - 29.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.9 - - 75.8 - - 81.6 - - 82.7 - - 75.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.6 - - 28.6 - - 27.7 - - 26.4 - - 29.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 288 - - 348 - - 57 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3864 - - 11453 - - 11772 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 27 - - 81 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96431 28 275 36 276 38 266 28 261 39 271 96431 89200 16 282 16 260 27 250 25 284 27 275 89200 83689 17 298 15 261 21 278 20 257 21 281 83689 79129 17 281 24 279 22 291 15 268 19 276 79129 75219 16 279 22 263 16 286 14 276 16 275 75219 71770 16 273 16 271 9 283 12 272 15 272 71770 68640 17 262 18 242 14 251 16 257 15 251 68640 65765 16 236 15 246 18 241 20 274 13 259 65765 63093 18 231 18 238 23 215 26 234 21 252 63093 60499 22 224 22 223 30 218 27 229 29 240 60499 57777 25 229 29 224 34 227 36 234 34 234 57777 54902 32 225 33 220 36 227 43 224 34 222 54902 52113 35 224 33 221 40 220 40 219 39 217 52113 49591 38 220 38 216 42 217 38 221 39 212 49591 47340 40 216 42 210 39 218 39 223 34 209 47340 45312 39 216 37 205 30 218 37 223 32 210 45312 43469 30 214 23 194 24 223 41 220 30 210 43469 41778 17 216 13 218 35 228 48 214 31 215 41778 40213 14 241 21 233 47 213 36 207 42 226 40213 38757 20 242 38 220 40 204 31 216 68 227 38757 37395 27 226 42 203 29 223 61 228 70 228 37395 36084 31 203 32 195 37 238 71 224 79 229 36084 34758 27 175 17 221 46 235 68 222 81 226 34758 33393 10 180 17 261 45 231 60 220 75 225 33393 31992 5 269 28 254 37 230 58 222 67 224 31992 30537 24 253 36 240 33 229 53 223 59 220 30537 29011 30 241 37 231 32 228 40 224 56 216 29011 27415 24 239 30 226 27 224 30 226 54 216 27415 25750 14 224 16 226 27 212 23 214 47 216 25750 24019 10 154 5 160 18 190 25 183 38 211 24019 22226 16 128 15 140 18 154 27 174 33 192 22226 20362 19 142 22 161 26 169 30 182 33 177 20362 18420 20 162 22 163 30 181 30 180 32 169 18420 16449 22 170 21 161 29 180 28 174 25 149 16449 14557 22 166 20 159 23*169 21*166 17 126 14557 12831 20 169 19 154 18*154 19*162 16 133 12831 11285 17 164 18 151 18 153 18 161 14 138 11285 9902 17 151 18 150 17 152 16 158 13 146 9902 8663 18 141 18 148 16 148 14 153 11 159 8663 7556 18 134 19 145 15 144 13 146 10 180 7556 6570 21 132 20*139 15 140 12 139 11 203 6570 5696 24 132 19*134 14 137 12 133 13 219 5696 4919 26 133 19 133 14 134 11 128 16 230 4919 4221 27 132 19 133 13 132 11 125 19 237 4221 3602 27 127 18 132 13 129 11 121 21 241 3602 3083 24 122 18 133 12 127 10 119 20 241 3083 2683 19 124 17 133 12 127 10 118 19 242 2683 2408 12 138 16 133 12 126 10 117 17 242 2408 2240 7*157 15 133 11 125 9 117 14 241 2240 2144 4*188 13 134 10 125 8 115 10*238 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography