DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 83.3 - - 88.0 - - 87.7 - - 78.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 404 - - 455 - - 162 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 8666 - - 13114 - - 12108 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 8595 - - 12302 - - 10698 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 10766 - - 15214 - - 14208 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3164 - - 2523 - - 4133 - - 263 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 622 - - 742 - - 513 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 29 - - 33 - - 12 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 4 - - 8 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 116 - - 053 - - 359 - - 310 Direction Wind Shear - - - 9 - - 16 - - 15 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -10 - - -41 - - -25 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3526 - - -1114 - - -2305 - - -12725 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 14292 - - 16329 - - 16514 - - 14870 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5373 - - -2244 - - -3071 - - -15851 ODpotential blCL - - - 16139 - - 17458 - - 17279 - - 17996 blCL maxRH - - - 33 - - 55 - - 61 - - 29 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 83.3 - - 88.0 - - 87.7 - - 78.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 27.2 - - 22.1 - - 21.1 - - 20.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 80.8 - - 85.2 - - 86.3 - - 80.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 26.9 - - 21.8 - - 20.9 - - 20.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 404 - - 455 - - 162 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 8666 - - 13114 - - 12108 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98038 17 299 15 280 19 304 14 346 98038 90632 12 266 20 265 18 284 16 316 90632 84896 14 276 13 284 9 276 11 301 84896 80126 9 253 10 266 10 263 15 285 80126 76038 10 249 13 252 12 251 12 274 76038 72437 12 278 14 266 17 276 13 293 72437 69185 17 276 16 253 20 266 19 283 69185 66210 19 267 17 256 20 260 21 270 66210 63460 25 266 24 270 25 266 28 268 63460 60798 34 262 31 262 31 268 30 261 60798 58016 36 258 34 257 35 264 33 263 58016 55123 36 252 37 255 36 258 34 264 55123 52362 35 251 35 256 33 262 31 270 52362 49879 33 251 35 262 30 269 30 271 49879 47659 29 249 31 262 28 265 24 276 47659 45651 24 236 19 265 23 255 22 284 45651 43808 8 248 15 263 16 258 22 293 43808 42101 10 265 11 285 14 322 20 313 42101 40511 8 224 8 317 15 334 16 330 40511 39018 6 129 6 340 21 326 17 344 39018 37619 12 073 7 043 12 031 25 022 37619 36286 18 057 24 054 30 047 39 040 36286 34947 22 059 33 051 43 043 53 048 34947 33568 28 063 40 052 51 043 64 050 33568 32148 35 063 49 051 55 046 66 050 32148 30672 39 056 53 050 58 048 63 050 30672 29130 39 054 50 051 55 049 59 052 29130 27523 36 062 44 055 49 048 52 051 27523 25855 36 073 38 066 43 055 42 053 25855 24126 33 075 34 075 38 064 35 061 24126 22340 29 074 27 080 31 066 29 067 22340 20488 24 075 23 082 24 071 24 075 20488 18559 17 077 20 085 19 084 20 082 18559 16588 12 086 18*094 18 088 18 082 16588 14682 13 092 13*096 14*078 18 073 14682 12938 15 099 8 091 11*062 18 064 12938 11379 13*111 6 087 9 048 17 057 11379 9984 10*121 5 081 8 036 15 049 9984 8735 7 122 4 072 7 013 14 038 8735 7619 6 120 4 038 8 352 13 022 7619 6623 5 118 4 006 9 340 13 006 6623 5739 3 115 5 354 10 336 14 350 5739 4954 2 109 5 348 11 333 15 336 4954 4249 2 103 6 345 11 332 17 326 4249 3621 1 088 6 342 12 331 18 321 3621 3096 1 070 6 341 12 331 19 318 3096 2691 1 054 6 341 12 331 18 316 2691 2411 1 039 6 340 11 330 16 314 2411 2241 1 044 6 340 11 331 12*312 2241 2145 1 037 6 340 10 331 7*310 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography