DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/25 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 72.6 - - 77.4 - - 74.2 - - 65.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 139 - - 200 - - -11 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2331 - - 5073 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3201 - - 5394 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4431 - - 7173 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1792 - - 2575 - - 6698 - - 412 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 282 - - 411 - - 10 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 11 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 228 - - 254 - - 265 - - 254 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 5 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2774 - - -710 - - -5094 - - -3072 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 7206 - - 7884 - - 7238 - - 5216 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5310 - - -1995 - - -6751 - - -6401 ODpotential blCL - - - 9741 - - 9168 - - 8895 - - 8545 blCL maxRH - - - 78 - - 70 - - 74 - - 78 maxRH CAPE - - - 70 - - 70 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 72.6 - - 77.4 - - 74.2 - - 65.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 48.6 - - 50.2 - - 50.0 - - 50.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 71.3 - - 75.8 - - 74.8 - - 68.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 48.4 - - 50.0 - - 49.9 - - 50.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 139 - - 200 - - -11 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2331 - - 5073 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 - - 12 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96219 29 286 37 272 33 289 36 279 96219 89081 20 292 27 283 20 298 22 311 89081 83597 19 301 16 307 18 309 20 314 83597 79071 26 308 24 322 16 315 26 311 79071 75197 27 306 26 312 24 315 24 308 75197 71762 27 317 17 316 22 322 26 319 71762 68631 32 306 31 313 27 302 32 305 68631 65755 32 272 33 277 34 273 32 278 65755 63102 36 230 38 239 37 251 31 262 63102 60536 39 234 42 242 40 264 31 266 60536 57861 52 243 59 250 54 266 48 267 57861 55090 66 235 69 243 69 253 56 252 55090 52432 73 228 69 238 69 242 67 239 52432 50020 73 232 68 240 73 238 72 235 50020 47842 79 239 71 241 77 242 70 236 47842 45854 87 238 78 242 82 246 73 247 45854 44046 86 236 83 238 88 245 79 245 44046 42393 76 240 82 235 81 242 70 237 42393 40860 73 248 75 235 71 242 57 249 40860 39420 77 248 69 242 64 251 58 259 39420 38062 85 244 71 250 63 255 60 258 38062 36746 90 240 71 250 64 255 60 254 36746 35407 88 236 68 246 63 255 60 252 35407 34018 84 235 66 245 62 255 61 250 34018 32581 81 236 59 248 62 256 61 249 32581 31079 77 239 53 250 60 254 60 247 31079 29503 72 243 52 249 57 250 58 243 29503 27855 68 246 52 248 54 244 54 240 27855 26138 63 246 54 250 52 244 52 245 26138 24355 58 245 54 253 50 250 50 253 24355 22507 54 244 49 254 47 253 46 256 22507 20593 54 244 44 250 43 253 40 253 20593 18606 55 245 44 246 41 250 38 248 18606 16585 49 244 47 245 41 249 37 249 16585 14641 37 240 43 245 40 249 36 251 14641 12876 30 236 35 241 36 249 35 249 12876 11310 26 237 28 238 29 246 31 244 11310 9914 22 236 22 236 23 242 25 239 9914 8669 19 233 17 237 18 236 20 234 8669 7559 17 230 13*242 13 233 16 230 7559 6570 17 228 12*245 11 240 14 228 6570 5695 16 228 12 248 11 247 13 234 5695 4918 14*229 11 252 11 253 13 245 4918 4220 11*229 12 255 10 256 14 253 4220 3601 9 228 11 256 10 259 14 261 3601 3082 8 228 11 258 10 262 13 267 3082 2682 7 227 11 260 10 263 12 270 2682 2407 7 227 10 260 9 264 9 270 2407 2240 6 227 10 261 8 265 5 264 2240 2144 6 227 9 261 6*265 3*254 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography