DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/12 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.7 - - 75.9 - - 81.6 - - 77.7 - - 67.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 164 - - 164 - - -2 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2137 - - 8085 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3150 - - 7580 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 4237 - - 10185 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 160 - - 3899 - - 1475 - - 9790 - - 213 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 290 - - 452 - - 4 - - 2 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 8 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 16 - - 10 - - 1 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 141 - - 168 - - 235 - - 236 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -4 - - 5 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3767 - - -5119 - - -1100 - - -8342 - - -6450 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5911 - - 9357 - - 11285 - - 10488 - - 8594 sfcLCL ODpotential -13402 - - -11042 - - -6645 - - -14499 - - -14824 ODpotential blCL 15546 - - 15279 - - 16830 - - 16644 - - 16968 blCL maxRH 52 - - 46 - - 63 - - 73 - - 62 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 58.7 - - 75.9 - - 81.6 - - 77.7 - - 67.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.8 - - 42.4 - - 39.2 - - 39.2 - - 38.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.9 - - 74.7 - - 80.1 - - 79.8 - - 72.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.4 - - 41.9 - - 38.7 - - 38.6 - - 37.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 164 - - 164 - - -2 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2137 - - 8085 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96712 58 294 53 290 43 287 49 279 51 278 96712 89450 45 297 36 302 33 289 28 288 34 300 89450 83875 26 294 30 311 28 310 27 306 27 316 83875 79281 18 294 26 307 27 316 31 322 29 329 79281 75351 20 325 20 324 25 323 29 329 30 329 75351 71892 24 328 19 332 21 321 28 325 31 325 71892 68770 18 320 18 314 21 312 29 317 30 330 68770 65901 19 315 19 300 23 300 25 301 26 303 65901 63252 24 316 17 299 15 277 16 265 24 269 63252 60706 24 311 16 301 9 279 15 270 20 264 60706 58061 25 296 26 279 24 280 22 294 21 268 58061 55320 25 278 32 266 34 263 34 273 30 271 55320 52694 28 287 35 273 38 264 40 265 40 255 52694 50307 39 292 43 279 47 271 46 255 50 249 50307 48153 43 290 48 276 50 269 46 255 55 244 48153 46201 40 287 46 273 46 267 41 259 51 240 46201 44409 36 287 39 273 40 268 38 264 46 247 44409 42738 37 298 35 281 38 276 42 271 50 259 42738 41169 40 307 35 292 39 285 44 272 51 262 41169 39688 41 313 37 297 41 285 42 271 46 258 39688 38285 38 321 37 299 40 285 41 266 42 252 38285 36927 30 318 35 308 33 285 37 262 40 249 36927 35550 30 316 28 319 24 289 33 257 38 248 35550 34126 30 327 24 324 20 292 29 252 34 247 34126 32655 20 333 27 322 24 289 25 259 32 247 32655 31123 21 336 27 317 29 292 25 274 30 252 31123 29522 25 351 22 321 25 295 26 279 23 254 29522 27852 15 004 14 337 13 316 17 270 18 244 27852 26109 8 311 6 328 6 292 13 263 16 231 26109 24309 9 258 7 255 7 253 13 252 15 239 24309 22469 6 235 6 225 6 214 12 212 15 213 22469 20572 4 183 4 188 6 184 11 180 14 187 20572 18594 6 132 8 146 9 150 11 161 13 176 18594 16571 13 140 13 147 13 151 11 163 13 185 16571 14619 18 146 15 155 13 157 14 174 16 188 14619 12853 19 146 17 160 17 170 20 170 22 176 12853 11298 16 139 18 153 18*176 15 167 24 154 11298 9915 14 134 17 146 15*177 11 173 20 148 9915 8676 13 134 16 148 15 177 10 178 15 166 8676 7569 12 142 15 156 13 176 9 183 12 181 7569 6582 12 152 14 163 11 171 8 187 11 196 6582 5706 13 159 15 165 10 166 7 192 9 206 5706 4928 16 160 16*160 9 162 5 196 7 215 4928 4228 19 153 16*145 8 157 5 201 5 230 4228 3606 22 142 16 141 7 153 4 206 5 260 3606 3085 27 130 16 140 7 149 3 212 5 284 3085 2684 24 127 16 139 7 147 3 218 6 294 2684 2408 17 132 15 139 6 144 2 223 5 291 2408 2240 11*141 14 139 6 143 2*227 3 262 2240 2144 5*160 12 139 6 143 1*235 3*236 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography