DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.2 - - 84.6 - - 82.0 - - 76.9 - - 74.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 81 - - 16 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1290 - - 339 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 3390 - - 2439 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 471 - - 3885 - - 1533 - - 2120 - - 541 Hgt.Variab. W* 24 - - 203 - - 93 - - 23 - - 8 W* B/S 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 7 - - 4 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 172 - - 169 - - 175 - - 061 - - 325 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - -3 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1224 - - -3415 - - -2425 - - -653 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3369 - - 6805 - - 4864 - - 2798 - - 2145 sfcLCL ODpotential -5412 - - -5509 - - -5069 - - -3761 - - -3202 ODpotential blCL 7557 - - 8899 - - 7508 - - 5906 - - 5347 blCL maxRH 93 - - 96 - - 94 - - 85 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 1010 - - 1450 - - 2600 - - 3130 - - 3050 CAPE Temp@2m 73.2 - - 84.6 - - 82.0 - - 76.9 - - 74.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 65.3 - - 62.0 - - 67.6 - - 71.2 - - 71.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.2 - - 83.8 - - 81.8 - - 77.7 - - 75.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 64.7 - - 61.0 - - 66.3 - - 70.1 - - 71.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 81 - - 16 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1290 - - 339 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 74 - - 85 - - 75 - - 39 - - 76 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 12 - - 15 - - 17 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97611 23 309 18 323 11 286 14 290 30 288 97611 90317 13 310 17 316 14 306 7 280 20 287 90317 84710 16 309 15 310 10 316 10 321 8 319 84710 80072 12 287 10 290 11 292 19 328 11 000 80072 76087 3 294 7 255 9 281 14 315 11 353 76087 72570 3 315 3 176 6 303 9 305 10 343 72570 69378 3 300 3 328 9 320 7 328 7 324 69378 66450 4 125 8 187 8 270 9 309 6 350 66450 63746 4 180 6 144 5 150 5 153 3 084 63746 61130 10 183 9 209 6 203 7 193 6 199 61130 58418 19 207 23 204 18 206 23 215 19 216 58418 55624 29 228 25 211 23 201 28 206 27 215 55624 52965 41 230 39 228 33 226 35 220 35 224 52965 50566 49 223 52 225 46 225 43 225 44 227 50566 48403 53 223 53 223 50 227 51 229 54 229 48403 46425 55 226 58 232 58 229 61 230 58 228 46425 44599 58 229 64 230 65 228 66 229 56 230 44599 42904 62 231 65 226 68 226 64 228 56 232 42904 41323 64 231 66 228 66 224 59 226 57 229 41323 39840 66 230 69 228 66 223 58 226 57 225 39840 38446 68 228 72 223 71 227 63 225 62 223 38446 37105 68 225 71 217 71 224 70 220 67 220 37105 35747 62 226 66 220 70 222 70 218 63 219 35747 34341 59 226 68 221 71 221 63 227 60 221 34341 32889 61 226 68 227 64 221 61 228 59 225 32889 31376 62 226 67 229 59 225 59 226 57 222 31376 29792 63 227 65 228 58 224 59 225 58 223 29792 28138 60 227 60 225 58 219 56 221 59 220 28138 26416 55 224 54 223 54 214 52 216 55 209 26416 24636 47 221 51 218 51 212 49 210 51 205 24636 22793 45 221 49 215 46 212 46 205 48 206 22793 20874 44 220 45 213 43 211 42 202 45 202 20874 18873 41 217 40 208 41 209 40 201 42 201 18873 16836 37 214 37 203 39 206 37 204 39 203 16836 14874 37 210 37 201 38 201 36 206 36 205 14874 13089 38 207 37 200 38 195 36 201 35 205 13089 11497 35 204 36 199 35 192 35 194 35 199 11497 10078 31 201 33 196 31 190 33 192 33 191 10078 8810 27 198 31 194 25 189 27 192 26 188 8810 7677 24 193 28 193 22 195 23 194 20 188 7677 6668 21 186 25 192 21 202 21 197 16 195 6668 5774 18 180 22 193 20 208 16 204 12 206 5774 4980 16 177 19 193 19 214 11 215 7 216 4980 4267 14 174 16 192 17 218 5 239 2 219 4267 3633 13 168 13*188 15 217 2 026 2 056 3633 3103 12 155 9*177 12 213 6 057 2 066 3103 2695 9 140 7 168 8*201 6 061 4 091 2695 2414 5 126 7 166 5*182 6 061 3 058 2414 2243 3*136 6 165 4 173 5 061 2*355 2243 2145 2*172 6 164 4 170 4*061 2*325 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography