DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 76.7 - - 80.8 - - 76.9 - - 74.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 28 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1629 - - 2338 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3729 - - 4438 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1527 - - 2799 - - 4066 - - 2738 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 183 - - 204 - - 26 - - 23 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 6 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 7 - - 4 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 109 - - 128 - - 149 - - 145 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 1 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 924 - - 888 - - -315 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2805 - - 3550 - - 2460 - - 2145 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -860 - - -441 - - -1326 - - -1140 ODpotential blCL - - - 4589 - - 4879 - - 3471 - - 3285 blCL maxRH - - - 96 - - 97 - - 101 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 1630 - - 2410 - - 2410 - - 1890 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 76.7 - - 80.8 - - 76.9 - - 74.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 71.1 - - 71.9 - - 72.7 - - 71.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 76.1 - - 80.4 - - 77.1 - - 74.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 69.9 - - 70.6 - - 71.8 - - 71.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 28 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1629 - - 2338 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 84 - - 87 - - 102 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 17 - - 18 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98837 27 109 26 145 10 123 21 081 98837 91460 27 098 29 103 24 104 25 105 91460 85754 24 100 31 093 30 107 25 109 85754 81007 26 105 27 100 30 103 26 098 81007 76918 24 113 20 109 25 098 27 090 76918 73300 19 121 16 103 18 091 25 082 73300 70033 19 123 13 107 14 094 18 082 70033 67052 13 133 12 113 12 096 12 090 67052 64293 14 166 8 162 9 109 10 113 64293 61616 14 161 14 188 6 181 4 141 61616 58847 10 156 13 190 11 215 8 251 58847 56029 6 169 13 183 14 209 13 241 56029 53379 6 264 5 194 9 207 9 230 53379 51001 13 256 15 256 18 267 14 274 51001 48858 17 247 17 244 18 254 17 268 48858 46895 23 228 25 224 22 222 20 251 46895 45079 25 218 32 209 28 217 20 246 45079 43390 28 220 30 210 30 218 34 239 43390 41809 33 220 32 213 36 223 46 224 41809 40322 40 216 41 218 42 218 51 210 40322 38917 38 204 39 209 38 210 46 203 38917 37556 37 204 30 201 32 205 39 202 37556 36174 35 207 26 199 29 204 35 198 36174 34742 29 210 26 201 26 205 30 194 34742 33260 23 198 23 196 17 220 24 191 33260 31715 17 178 24 190 13 192 22 202 31715 30096 17 169 24 187 11 183 23 215 30096 28408 19 169 25 184 10 188 21 226 28408 26649 20 176 24 184 13 184 18 227 26649 24820 18 182 21 183 15 180 14 209 24820 22929 18 186 20 181 17 181 15 198 22929 20968 21 191 20 183 18 183 16 203 20968 18932 24 197 20 187 18 182 16 215 18932 16865 24 204 19 187 16 176 14 218 16865 14880 19 211 16 180 14 167 13 212 14880 13078 13 220 14 182 14 158 12 199 13078 11474 10 218 12 188 13 150 12 184 11474 10048 9 191 8 182 13 150 15 176 10048 8776 11 164 9 178 13 151 20 166 8776 7644 12 150 11 177 13 149 21 154 7644 6639 14 142 11 169 13 145 21 143 6639 5749 14 137 11 159 11 145 20 133 5749 4960 13 131 9*145 9 147 19 129 4960 4252 12*125 8*135 8 150 17 128 4252 3623 9*117 7 129 8 151 17 135 3623 3097 7 109 7 128 6 151 15 139 3097 2692 7 107 6 125 5 150 12 143 2692 2413 6 105 6 124 5 149 10 144 2413 2243 6 104 6 124 4 150 9*146 2243 2145 5 103 5 123 4*149 6*145 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography