DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/19 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 81.7 - - 81.0 - - 74.7 - - 70.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 230 - - 95 - - -3 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3873 - - 3729 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4564 - - 4060 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5973 - - 5829 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4819 - - 5425 - - 1996 - - 857 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 395 - - 307 - - 26 - - 22 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 13 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 166 - - 222 - - 069 - - 169 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - -4 - - 1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1484 - - -176 - - -1308 - - -232 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 7457 - - 6006 - - 3454 - - 2377 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2416 - - -1739 - - -3680 - - -3625 ODpotential blCL - - - 8389 - - 7568 - - 5825 - - 5769 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 86 - - 74 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 470 - - 1240 - - 1660 - - 1510 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 81.7 - - 81.0 - - 74.7 - - 70.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 56.2 - - 61.8 - - 66.4 - - 66.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 80.0 - - 80.2 - - 74.9 - - 71.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 56.0 - - 60.8 - - 65.3 - - 66.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 230 - - 95 - - -3 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3873 - - 3729 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 58 - - 44 - - 0 - - 99 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 12 - - 15 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97846 26 304 21 287 29 286 33 308 97846 90537 24 309 18 300 22 299 26 304 90537 84898 19 285 18 302 18 308 20 307 84898 80230 14 281 15 279 17 308 18 313 80230 76215 8 299 9 281 10 317 10 328 76215 72665 3 320 2 280 2 359 5 031 72665 69455 3 113 5 166 3 224 3 015 69455 66523 5 167 6 190 6 245 7 293 66523 63827 6 258 7 247 7 270 10 289 63827 61221 10 256 12 228 10 219 8 236 61221 58508 14 239 15 220 16 225 15 239 58508 55713 19 236 21 221 23 218 21 229 55713 53056 22 248 19 247 17 219 21 225 53056 50656 32 248 28 249 25 248 25 248 50656 48486 34 240 37 243 38 248 35 255 48486 46496 33 240 40 239 42 243 47 248 46496 44651 35 243 43 238 48 242 52 245 44651 42930 38 242 45 239 50 241 50 244 42930 41316 40 242 44 241 48 241 48 243 41316 39796 41 242 44 242 47 242 47 245 39796 38363 41 242 44 242 48 243 48 247 38363 36980 41 241 43 241 48 243 47 250 36980 35581 40 240 42 241 44 245 49 254 35581 34141 38 239 39 240 41 247 51 255 34141 32670 36 236 35 241 38 249 49 256 32670 31158 33 235 32 241 36 251 45 255 31158 29587 31 232 31 241 35 250 42 252 29587 27948 33 231 31 242 35 251 43 253 27948 26234 37 233 32 244 37 251 45 254 26234 24445 41 234 33 244 38 248 46 255 24445 22590 42 235 37 242 38 244 39 249 22590 20673 45 236 42 239 41 238 39 238 20673 18692 47 238 44 236 41 234 40 231 18692 16681 43 234 38 233 36 232 34 223 16681 14741 35 227 27 221 27 221 27 214 14741 12972 28 223 25 215 25 212 24 208 12972 11400 23 219 22 216 24 215 18 210 11400 10000 19 215 18 219 21 221 12 220 10000 8748 13 205 15 221 16 227 9 228 8748 7627 9 194 11 221 12 233 6 222 7627 6627 7*181 8*220 8 237 5 182 6627 5740 6*173 6*221 5 236 7 148 5740 4952 6 171 5 221 2 220 9 143 4952 4244 5 168 5 222 1 156 13 147 4244 3616 5 165 4 222 2 118 12 156 3616 3091 5 163 4 222 2 099 14 169 3091 2687 4 160 3 223 2 081 15 171 2687 2410 4 159 3 223 2 072 13 170 2410 2241 4 158 3 223 2*067 11 170 2241 2144 4 159 3 225 2*069 7*169 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography