DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 02/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.7 - - 68.7 - - 77.3 - - 76.4 - - 61.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 169 - - 245 - - 5 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1185 - - 4040 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2466 - - 4710 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3285 - - 6140 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 118 - - 989 - - 3588 - - 6352 - - 223 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 239 - - 407 - - 25 - - 2 W* B/S 0 - - 122 - - 13 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 195 - - 133 - - 013 - - 347 - - 276 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 0 - - -4 - - 2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5130 - - -7997 - - -8667 - - -13147 - - -11014 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7274 - - 11282 - - 14808 - - 15292 - - 13158 sfcLCL ODpotential -13487 - - -12955 - - -12655 - - -17456 - - -18947 ODpotential blCL 15630 - - 16240 - - 18795 - - 19600 - - 21091 blCL maxRH 52 - - 37 - - 31 - - 15 - - 12 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 50.7 - - 68.7 - - 77.3 - - 76.4 - - 61.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.4 - - 27.0 - - 19.3 - - 16.5 - - 12.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.6 - - 67.4 - - 75.5 - - 76.2 - - 67.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.4 - - 26.9 - - 18.9 - - 16.2 - - 12.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 169 - - 245 - - 5 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1185 - - 4040 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96311 30 279 27 273 35 271 27 265 34 300 96311 89169 30 283 27 274 31 272 27 296 30 315 89169 83696 24 286 25 284 27 277 25 305 19 329 83696 79140 14 294 23 296 20 295 16 310 13 342 79140 75187 12 284 17 299 19 311 13 302 14 334 75187 71691 13 302 10 303 16 309 13 310 16 307 71691 68551 17 315 13 326 13 312 15 330 14 306 68551 65683 21 310 19 311 15 311 20 330 15 324 65683 63022 21 300 21 288 28 310 23 320 17 323 63022 60431 22 288 26 273 32 292 22 313 21 309 60431 57707 26 292 30 274 32 277 32 293 29 303 57707 54865 39 289 36 274 36 274 41 285 37 298 54865 52152 49 275 43 272 43 272 45 278 42 291 52152 49709 56 272 50 266 51 272 50 275 49 283 49709 47515 64 269 57 264 58 266 53 273 52 275 47515 45523 69 268 58 267 58 261 53 275 45 272 45523 43699 65 268 55 271 53 261 51 276 36 275 43699 42019 61 264 56 268 52 263 48 269 35 278 42019 40455 59 265 56 265 52 262 45 267 36 273 40455 38996 56 271 54 269 45 265 40 268 30 269 38996 37633 55 272 51 273 38 270 33 268 26 269 37633 36325 53 273 49 273 36 272 28 270 24 271 36325 35005 51 274 48 270 35 273 22 274 16 269 35005 33640 49 273 47 269 35 274 16 288 8 072 33640 32234 45 274 42 269 32 276 14 294 20 075 32234 30771 39 278 33 274 25 278 11 306 24 069 30771 29239 36 280 24 277 16 281 6 332 26 065 29239 27640 32 283 12 287 6 331 8 068 26 071 27640 25969 24 293 8 010 12 056 18 078 30 075 25969 24227 16 307 17 050 23 082 23 081 33 070 24227 22415 12 324 18 041 32 083 25 085 30 071 22415 20529 12 347 18 046 29 074 24 081 23 077 20529 18562 12 009 22 063 25 058 24 068 19 062 18562 16555 13 029 23 066 25 063 23 067 23 050 16555 14621 12 042 17 059 22 073 21 069 23 051 14621 12860 11 050 11 050 12 075 17 066 20 055 12860 11291 10 065 8 048 7 060 13 058 18 060 11291 9892 11 067 7 049 5 046 10 054 16 064 9892 8646 11 060 8 050 5 044 8 063 15 066 8646 7536 12 056 9 048 6 044 8 070 14 064 7536 6550 13 056 10 045 6*034 8 069 13 062 6550 5677 12 060 9 047 5*026 7 061 12 058 5677 4902 11 063 8 058 5 017 6 044 11 050 4902 4206 9 067 5 081 5 012 5 011 9 036 4206 3589 6 062 2*111 6 010 6 358 10 014 3589 3074 4 044 1*154 6 009 6 354 10 358 3074 2677 2 031 0 137 6 008 6 351 9 349 2677 2404 0 286 0 123 6 007 6 350 7 342 2404 2238 2*187 0 102 6 007 5 350 4*313 2238 2144 2*195 0 087 5 007 5*347 3*276 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography