DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/28 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.3 - - 66.5 - - 73.8 - - 69.3 - - 58.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 76 - - 149 - - -4 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 824 - - 3758 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 4258 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2924 - - 5858 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 129 - - 1220 - - 2232 - - 5240 - - 204 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 167 - - 338 - - 5 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 10 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 3 - - 6 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 187 - - 283 - - 289 - - 301 - - 275 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 0 - - 3 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4570 - - -5248 - - -5215 - - -8771 - - -5965 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6714 - - 8172 - - 11074 - - 10915 - - 8109 sfcLCL ODpotential -14322 - - -12039 - - -10209 - - -14421 - - -13835 ODpotential blCL 16465 - - 14963 - - 16067 - - 16565 - - 15979 blCL maxRH 60 - - 53 - - 58 - - 40 - - 30 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.3 - - 66.5 - - 73.8 - - 69.3 - - 58.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.2 - - 38.4 - - 32.6 - - 29.2 - - 31.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.7 - - 65.9 - - 72.5 - - 72.1 - - 63.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.0 - - 37.4 - - 32.2 - - 28.7 - - 31.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 76 - - 149 - - -4 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 824 - - 3758 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96260 21 286 22 302 21 270 20 270 18 285 96260 89152 18 318 13 298 18 279 12 288 14 302 89152 83662 9 329 8 282 16 297 8 307 12 330 83662 79073 7 357 3 293 15 297 14 305 16 325 79073 75102 6 338 7 326 9 304 15 322 16 299 75102 71611 11 321 16 324 14 331 13 325 14 277 71611 68473 13 301 22 308 22 321 14 327 14 313 68473 65593 18 316 23 292 28 307 24 315 24 308 65593 62926 25 310 23 284 29 293 31 297 35 304 62926 60348 27 301 25 283 29 286 35 285 39 293 60348 57650 37 303 30 294 31 287 39 282 44 285 57650 54832 50 290 42 291 42 284 47 284 54 285 54832 52131 59 277 58 283 58 284 58 284 67 286 52131 49694 68 274 65 274 67 281 68 280 73 284 49694 47507 74 272 72 271 75 276 72 278 75 281 47507 45525 79 272 78 273 79 273 74 277 76 279 45525 43714 88 273 85 275 83 273 78 275 78 277 43714 42044 99 274 92 275 91 273 82 274 79 276 42044 40494 107 272 94 275 94 273 82 273 77 275 40494 39041 107 272 95 274 91 272 76 272 74 274 39041 37671 101 272 96 273 83 271 72 274 68 276 37671 36348 96 273 93 273 77 275 65 279 60 280 36348 35007 87 272 84 274 75 277 63 283 54 285 35007 33623 71 270 71 273 71 275 62 283 53 285 33623 32199 63 274 61 277 62 273 57 280 52 281 32199 30723 58 278 55 277 54 275 47 282 47 281 30723 29179 46 278 41 274 48 276 41 288 41 283 29179 27562 29 284 36 278 41 275 41 286 37 285 27562 25876 23 290 34 278 35 276 40 282 37 288 25876 24125 25 282 32 276 31 276 35 282 37 290 24125 22312 28 270 31 273 29 277 31 283 34 289 22312 20432 32 269 32 273 31 277 28 282 30 288 20432 18477 32 274 31 276 31 279 26 283 27 289 18477 16481 26 278 27 282 26 284 24 289 23 291 16481 14553 20 281 23 289 21 288 22 294 18 291 14553 12795 16 280 15 290 14 281 18 290 13 296 12795 11232 12 269 9 268 11 265 15 287 13 296 11232 9840 11 243 8 243 11 255 12 283 12 285 9840 8601 12 230 9 226 10 245 11 260 11 255 8601 7500 11 221 9 219 10 251 9 245 11 238 7500 6521 9 220 9 223 8*263 7 252 10 253 6521 5655 8 227 8 228 8*270 7 265 11 275 5655 4887 7 242 8 235 7 278 7 273 12 285 4887 4196 8 259 6 244 6 287 7 280 12 292 4196 3583 8 270 5 261 6 293 7 286 10 303 3583 3070 8 270 4*273 5 299 7 290 8 319 3070 2675 7 262 3*278 5 305 7 294 7 329 2675 2403 4 234 3 283 5 307 6 297 5 327 2403 2238 3 190 2 287 5 310 5*299 2*305 2238 2144 3*187 2 288 4 309 4*301 2*275 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography