DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.6 - - 90.0 - - 94.4 - - 92.5 - - 83.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 211 - - 222 - - 11 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3718 - - 5265 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 4417 - - 5611 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 5818 - - 7365 - - 2146 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 261 - - 2248 - - 3279 - - 8276 - - 205 Hgt.Variab. W* 23 - - 381 - - 435 - - 34 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 27 - - 21 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 190 - - 134 - - 007 - - 344 - - 314 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -4 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3613 - - -4910 - - -5082 - - -9849 - - -7139 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5758 - - 10728 - - 12447 - - 11995 - - 9284 sfcLCL ODpotential -9521 - - -7826 - - -6912 - - -11699 - - -10781 ODpotential blCL 11666 - - 13644 - - 14277 - - 13845 - - 12926 blCL maxRH 95 - - 92 - - 92 - - 90 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 75.6 - - 90.0 - - 94.4 - - 92.5 - - 83.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 57.8 - - 50.3 - - 47.0 - - 47.2 - - 50.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 75.7 - - 88.3 - - 92.6 - - 92.3 - - 86.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 56.9 - - 49.8 - - 46.5 - - 46.8 - - 49.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 211 - - 222 - - 11 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3718 - - 5265 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 80 - - 67 - - 68 - - 60 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 8 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97878 15 288 19 276 11 256 20 239 13 302 97878 90556 4 326 10 214 13 227 10 263 8 306 90556 84914 1 287 1 069 4 189 4 314 7 293 84914 80223 7 320 6 050 7 033 4 067 8 303 80223 76184 4 323 6 077 8 037 8 047 9 014 76184 72639 5 086 5 096 10 078 9 036 14 010 72639 69461 5 080 12 092 11 068 12 042 13 002 69461 66557 6 061 15 063 10 052 15 040 15 022 66557 63884 15 046 16 065 9 089 7 023 17 025 63884 61309 14 012 14 017 16 042 6 038 12 013 61309 58634 15 351 15 341 15 344 13 330 14 346 58634 55874 31 321 28 322 30 329 30 333 25 334 55874 53248 45 318 43 318 46 321 45 329 38 334 53248 50870 56 320 55 321 55 318 56 323 47 325 50870 48719 63 318 60 320 59 317 60 320 53 325 48719 46748 64 316 58 317 60 314 63 318 57 322 46748 44923 59 315 56 316 60 312 64 316 59 319 44923 43222 58 317 58 320 62 315 64 316 61 318 43222 41630 61 317 61 320 65 318 64 317 64 319 41630 40132 63 316 63 319 66 319 64 317 65 319 40132 38719 62 316 62 320 64 320 62 317 64 318 38719 37354 61 319 61 323 63 323 61 319 61 318 37354 35970 59 323 62 328 62 326 61 321 59 320 35970 34538 56 326 61 332 56 328 58 322 57 321 34538 33066 51 329 54 332 51 328 54 322 56 322 33066 31539 44 330 46 330 47 326 51 323 54 323 31539 29942 40 326 41 326 44 323 50 323 51 328 29942 28275 39 320 39 322 43 323 48 325 48 329 28275 26538 38 315 37 319 40 323 45 325 43 329 26538 24734 37 320 33 317 35 321 39 324 37 329 24734 22868 33 326 29 320 30 316 32 324 30 329 22868 20938 24 326 24 321 25 317 26 323 24 327 20938 18933 18 324 18 309 20 313 19 320 19 323 18933 16894 14 301 15 286 14 290 14 301 15 314 16894 14937 10 277 12 275 10 269 8 261 12 259 14937 13157 6 303 7 288 6 304 3 021 1 189 13157 11567 6 340 6 003 4 332 4 081 4 120 11567 10142 1 014 3 049 2 339 6 084 5 105 10142 8867 4 097 4 081 1 008 6 078 6 092 8867 7727 6 086 4 089 2*013 6 068 5 071 7727 6710 5 086 2*096 2*011 6 051 6 046 6710 5810 4 096 2*122 3 008 5 026 7 021 5810 5010 3 120 2 134 3 007 6 007 8 002 5010 4290 5 141 3 136 4 005 6 349 9 351 4290 3651 7 149 3 137 4 006 7 345 10 346 3651 3115 10 149 3 137 5 005 7 344 10 344 3115 2702 9 153 3 135 5 006 7 343 10 342 2702 2417 6 162 2 134 5 007 6 343 8 340 2417 2244 4*171 2 134 5 007 6*343 6 329 2244 2145 2*190 2 132 4 006 5*344 4*314 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography