DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 02/08 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.9 - - 73.7 - - 79.7 - - 78.6 - - 65.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -20 - - 189 - - 270 - - 23 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2166 - - 6722 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3222 - - 6826 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4266 - - 8822 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 88 - - 3771 - - 2579 - - 9564 - - 166 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 303 - - 498 - - 41 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 26 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 7 - - 3 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 176 - - 135 - - 055 - - 359 - - 337 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 1 - - -8 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3526 - - -5580 - - -3831 - - -10825 - - -8047 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5669 - - 9846 - - 12653 - - 12970 - - 10191 sfcLCL ODpotential -10382 - - -8117 - - -6226 - - -13141 - - -13612 ODpotential blCL 12525 - - 12383 - - 15048 - - 15286 - - 15756 blCL maxRH 54 - - 49 - - 38 - - 39 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.9 - - 73.7 - - 79.7 - - 78.6 - - 65.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.3 - - 38.2 - - 31.3 - - 28.9 - - 29.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.1 - - 72.2 - - 77.6 - - 78.1 - - 70.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.3 - - 38.0 - - 31.1 - - 28.8 - - 29.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -20 - - 189 - - 270 - - 23 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2166 - - 6722 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96714 9 170 8 140 4 298 5 236 12 270 96714 89471 15 076 12 064 4 109 5 125 4 032 89471 83928 14 079 8 025 8 127 13 119 8 106 83928 79343 10 108 4 207 6 144 12 094 11 087 79343 75410 5 087 8 172 3 188 5 083 6 061 75410 71951 3 005 11 141 4 242 6 325 4 091 71951 68822 3 304 14 139 3 261 6 299 2 001 68822 65951 6 260 4 148 3 320 4 197 5 269 65951 63292 12 236 10 265 10 299 3 255 6 276 63292 60705 14 217 16 257 14 262 12 275 13 273 60705 57994 14 255 18 265 19 250 18 271 17 266 57994 55170 18 259 18 262 23 246 23 272 21 277 55170 52460 16 270 11 266 19 243 22 255 27 267 52460 49997 19 285 9 296 10 230 12 239 24 244 49997 47771 20 279 12 302 5 225 10 260 17 225 47771 45748 13 253 12 278 6 258 10 277 5 224 45748 43891 4 208 10 249 10 236 11 280 5 307 43891 42171 5 073 8 192 10 196 16 224 9 264 42171 40572 9 028 10 140 9 167 18 184 11 224 40572 39085 6 005 12 114 6 121 15 165 6 204 39085 37701 2 127 9 120 8 076 13 156 3 169 37701 36377 2 217 7 140 10 064 14 137 9 160 36377 35042 11 261 8 141 10 073 15 107 15 132 35042 33668 19 255 9 142 4 096 13 097 17 123 33668 32258 18 252 9 132 8 217 7 147 9 168 32258 30792 12 259 11 100 20 222 13 212 10 223 30792 29255 9 284 19 084 21 217 15 216 13 224 29255 27648 7 307 25 077 10 155 15 208 17 219 27648 25967 4 000 22 071 20 098 16 187 7 192 25967 24218 4 049 12 072 24 097 17 140 12 075 24218 22405 8 202 6 060 20 104 19 114 10 081 22405 20523 13 206 1 297 11 115 17 105 13 108 20523 18565 8 228 1 238 8 093 15 093 16 101 18565 16568 1 109 3 079 9 088 14 090 15 096 16568 14643 7 082 6 053 8 091 13 104 11 103 14643 12888 9 074 7 047 8 100 12 114 11 120 12888 11322 9 065 7 054 8 102 10 108 12 125 11322 9927 11 055 8 067 6*101 8 097 12 120 9927 8681 12 053 7 077 4*091 7 087 10 113 8681 7569 12 061 6 082 4 083 6 075 9 092 7569 6578 12 075 6 092 3 072 5 053 9 064 6578 5701 12 088 6 110 3 058 5 023 10 045 5701 4922 12 098 7*127 3 047 6 009 11 030 4922 4222 13 109 7*133 4 038 6 004 11 014 4222 3601 13 123 7 135 4 032 6 002 12 001 3601 3081 14 137 7 135 4 029 7 000 13 353 3081 2682 15 147 6 135 4 027 7 359 14 350 2682 2406 13 157 6 134 4 026 6 359 12 349 2406 2239 9 167 5 134 4 025 6*359 8 345 2239 2144 5*176 5 135 4 025 6*359 5*337 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography