DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/30 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 64.3 - - 69.2 - - 67.3 - - 65.4 - - 63.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 12 - - 16 - - -13 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 45 - - 819 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 2145 - - 2919 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 424 - - 3809 - - 2865 - - 2415 - - 741 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 43 - - 118 - - 23 - - 8 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 6 - - 12 - - 8 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 164 - - 153 - - 169 - - 161 - - 162 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - -5 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1299 - - -1019 - - 297 - - -126 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3443 - - 3164 - - 2622 - - 2270 - - 2144 sfcLCL ODpotential -5683 - - -2066 - - -819 - - -1631 - - -1900 ODpotential blCL 7827 - - 4211 - - 3738 - - 3775 - - 4044 blCL maxRH 98 - - 95 - - 100 - - 97 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 400 - - 1110 - - 960 - - 900 - - 770 CAPE Temp@2m 64.3 - - 69.2 - - 67.3 - - 65.4 - - 63.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 56.4 - - 62.3 - - 62.7 - - 62.2 - - 61.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.9 - - 69.0 - - 67.0 - - 65.9 - - 64.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 55.2 - - 61.0 - - 61.7 - - 61.7 - - 61.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 12 - - 16 - - -13 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 45 - - 819 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 91 - - 79 - - 100 - - 89 - - 94 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 13 - - 12 - - 13 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97237 57 279 63 274 59 270 62 269 62 275 97237 89936 39 279 42 276 43 277 41 269 37 282 89936 84348 27 272 29 276 29 283 28 281 23 292 84348 79712 17 273 21 257 28 269 28 286 20 290 79712 75740 15 289 16 249 22 253 18 275 18 270 75740 72236 17 275 11 246 16 244 10 249 16 241 72236 69038 21 263 20 257 18 248 12 257 17 250 69038 66090 25 239 27 241 26 251 20 256 22 249 66090 63355 21 235 25 236 24 246 21 239 22 250 63355 60680 27 263 29 256 27 240 26 244 27 242 60680 57897 44 257 36 246 30 247 39 255 39 254 57897 55042 48 245 44 252 46 254 53 249 48 254 55042 52321 34 248 51 246 50 250 45 242 56 258 52321 49873 54 263 49 254 61 260 63 260 71 255 49873 47694 68 265 63 265 79 260 84 259 78 263 47694 45722 78 264 77 267 86 261 91 263 91 269 45722 43916 82 260 86 266 89 265 98 267 101 270 43916 42242 82 258 86 265 92 267 104 268 110 271 42242 40677 78 255 79 264 88 266 104 268 115 271 40677 39206 67 252 70 262 81 263 100 267 109 270 39206 37826 54 242 57 254 73 260 93 266 98 267 37826 36502 51 231 45 239 59 252 79 264 87 265 36502 35163 49 225 39 234 51 230 61 257 77 268 35163 33778 48 221 37 230 52 219 51 242 70 270 33778 32348 48 225 39 227 47 219 51 238 63 268 32348 30859 51 227 41 227 47 212 48 237 56 261 30859 29302 53 227 42 226 43 212 42 234 46 245 29302 27677 52 225 43 226 42 214 38 230 50 233 27677 25981 49 222 43 225 45 215 38 228 52 240 25981 24218 46 219 42 226 45 217 38 230 48 251 24218 22389 42 218 38 227 41 219 40 229 43 254 22389 20488 36 224 34 230 37 222 45 235 39 254 20488 18512 33 234 34 237 37 223 46 242 37 252 18512 16500 34 234 33 239 40 229 43 231 27 246 16500 14568 31 229 30 235 40 234 34 224 23 240 14568 12816 24 220 25 229 38 232 27 227 21 220 12816 11259 18 196 21 219 34 230 24 229 17 209 11259 9871 16 181 21 205 30 226 21 228 15 216 9871 8632 18 179 24 196 28 213 19 221 17 225 8632 7529 20 173 27 188 26 197 17 211 17 219 7529 6548 21 172 27 176 24 185 16 198 18 209 6548 5678 23 173 26 171 22 176 16 178 17 210 5678 4906 25 176 23 170 20 173 19 161 16 214 4906 4211 24 179 18 168 19 174 21 153 14 214 4211 3594 22 180 14 165 18 177 20 154 12 206 3594 3077 17 173 11 161 16*173 19 153 10 180 3077 2680 12 157 9 156 14*170 16 155 11 150 2680 2405 8 149 8 155 13 169 13 158 9 145 2405 2239 5*151 7*154 12 168 11 159 6*149 2239 2144 2*164 6*153 9 168 8*161 3*162 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography