DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/02 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 83.4 - - 95.8 - - 100.6 - - 100.2 - - 87.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 16 - - 329 - - 317 - - 26 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4705 - - 10490 - - 10001 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 5347 - - 9928 - - 6277 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 6805 - - 12590 - - 12101 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1320 - - 4300 - - 4109 - - 5282 - - 218 Hgt.Variab. W* 37 - - 473 - - 611 - - 263 - - 4 W* B/S 1 - - 5 - - 10 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 10 - - 19 - - 11 - - 7 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 134 - - 127 - - 097 - - 066 - - 196 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 10 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -6 - - -10 - - 15 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -11097 - - -10218 - - -7203 - - -6877 - - -14782 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 13243 - - 17023 - - 19794 - - 18979 - - 16927 sfcLCL ODpotential -15467 - - -15064 - - -10500 - - -9650 - - -20264 ODpotential blCL 17612 - - 21869 - - 23090 - - 21751 - - 22409 blCL maxRH 44 - - 38 - - 41 - - 51 - - 69 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 83.4 - - 95.8 - - 100.6 - - 100.2 - - 87.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 33.3 - - 27.5 - - 18.9 - - 22.5 - - 20.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 83.2 - - 93.7 - - 98.3 - - 99.7 - - 92.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.2 - - 27.3 - - 18.8 - - 22.5 - - 20.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 16 - - 329 - - 317 - - 26 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4705 - - 10490 - - 10001 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98226 5 269 9 198 10 214 7 210 2 334 98226 90785 1 036 2 175 9 178 7 171 4 120 90785 85078 9 090 6 105 12 152 8 160 4 114 85078 80338 9 100 6 121 12 123 9 138 3 121 80338 76241 7 106 5 093 11 101 7 140 2 089 76241 72640 9 085 10 094 11 104 6 122 6 051 72640 69403 11 066 10 094 11 086 6 111 7 035 69403 66450 9 068 8 074 7 077 6 060 5 045 66450 63736 6 087 6 062 2 151 2 355 3 359 63736 61128 5 087 2 111 2 293 5 331 7 339 61128 58422 6 009 1 235 5 323 4 336 6 322 58422 55621 7 320 6 298 10 310 8 334 6 289 55621 52937 7 288 9 278 14 291 13 306 11 307 52937 50508 9 304 11 264 17 277 23 301 23 311 50508 48324 18 306 16 284 20 282 28 298 27 308 48324 46334 24 297 21 286 23 279 26 293 26 309 46334 44502 23 296 21 293 20 279 24 291 23 313 44502 42801 20 302 21 301 18 290 20 303 21 317 42801 41212 21 306 18 305 20 291 16 297 17 319 41212 39729 13 294 17 303 15 303 14 295 16 312 39729 38341 2 338 15 278 17 304 9 315 12 327 38341 37010 6 050 4 224 17 292 14 354 17 348 37010 35665 5 053 2 114 6 277 15 001 20 352 35665 34272 8 074 6 078 1 080 14 027 17 002 34272 32834 6 054 12 057 13 065 16 050 15 018 32834 31337 5 335 14 050 18 059 15 061 15 024 31337 29768 4 305 10 032 18 053 14 061 15 032 29768 28129 3 242 7 018 15 045 14 055 12 041 28129 26420 7 047 7 016 10 037 14 049 12 034 26420 24646 10 015 3 025 6 038 13 047 14 027 24646 22807 10 059 11 091 8 081 13 048 14 036 22807 20899 21 073 20 080 16 087 15 057 16 066 20899 18918 27 067 24 070 21 076 20 062 22 076 18918 16901 28 068 25 069 24 069 23 059 26 072 16901 14952 28 068 27 071 24 068 21 059 22 067 14952 13170 25 066 26 070 20*073 14*061 12 065 13170 11578 23 069 23 073 16*081 10*065 7 048 11578 10155 21 078 21 082 15 084 9 066 6 047 10155 8881 20 093 19 096 13 091 8 066 5 054 8881 7741 20 108 18*113 12 095 7 066 4 067 7741 6724 24 120 19*123 11 099 7 067 4 083 6724 5822 27 126 19 125 11 103 7 067 4 094 5822 5020 29 129 19 127 10 106 6 066 4 104 5020 4298 30 133 19 128 10 109 6 067 4 109 4298 3656 32 133 19 129 9 111 6 066 4 111 3656 3118 30 131 19 129 9 113 6 066 4 112 3118 2704 24 131 18 130 9 114 5 066 3 117 2704 2418 18 133 17 130 8 114 5 066 2 134 2418 2245 16*133 16 130 8 114 5 065 2 175 2245 2145 10*134 14 130 8 114 5 066 2*196 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography