DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 07/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 86.4 - - 95.9 - - - - - 92.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 103 - - 381 - - - - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1596 - - 5471 - - - - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2477 - - 6011 - - - - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3696 - - 7571 - - - - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1703 - - 3102 - - - - - 8348 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 230 - - 524 - - - - - 9 W* B/S - - - 13 - - 39 - - - - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 2 - - - - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 176 - - 028 - - - - - 219 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 3 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -7 - - - - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2189 - - -1996 - - - - - -6131 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5885 - - 9568 - - - - - 8278 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5740 - - -3374 - - - - - -8227 ODpotential blCL - - - 9436 - - 10945 - - - - - 10373 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 89 - - - - - 80 maxRH CAPE - - - 1380 - - 840 - - - - - 1600 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 86.4 - - 95.9 - - - - - 92.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 67.6 - - 61.0 - - - - - 63.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.6 - - 93.4 - - - - - 94.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 67.0 - - 60.8 - - - - - 63.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 103 - - 381 - - - - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1596 - - 5471 - - - - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 94 - - 55 - - - - - 19 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 12 - - - - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99036 48 110 47 111 42 084 99036 91508 43 106 42 106 43 098 91508 85737 43 101 41 102 44 103 85737 81006 44 106 39 107 34 097 81006 76949 41 115 36 111 28 094 76949 73345 28 105 31 107 26 086 73345 70070 25 093 28 115 29 087 70070 67082 24 093 26 110 32 090 67082 64350 20 094 23 103 26 098 64350 61720 18 116 19 111 21 108 61720 58994 26 124 19 127 19 102 58994 56200 27 121 21 135 16 102 56200 53558 23 130 26 123 18 109 53558 51177 22 138 23 123 15 110 51177 49027 22 137 19 141 12 103 49027 47056 17 146 20 140 7 098 47056 45229 17 152 20 131 4 115 45229 43526 19 139 15 109 4 152 43526 41927 16 114 14 084 4 142 41927 40423 15 045 15 053 6 077 40423 39005 17 006 14 018 13 062 39005 37636 17 345 15 355 19 036 37636 36248 13 360 15 345 19 016 36248 34812 8 025 8 352 17 004 34812 33331 8 034 7 006 15 004 33331 31788 8 020 13 031 15 019 31788 30171 7 039 19 043 14 026 30171 28488 9 053 19 041 15 041 28488 26738 13 045 17 038 16 052 26738 24920 18 049 16 033 14 064 24920 23038 16 059 16 033 13 064 23038 21088 8 070 13 042 12 059 21088 19067 8 056 12 057 12 071 19067 17017 9 075 12 062 16 090 17017 15047 12 080 13 065 18 106 15047 13252 13 078 13 062 16 125 13252 11650 10 076 13 054 12 117 11650 10217 8 076 11 051 7 072 10217 8933 6 071 8 047 5 011 8933 7785 5 076 5*042 4 328 7785 6762 4 076 4*040 5 302 6762 5853 3 016 3 035 5 287 5853 5045 3 310 3 030 5 275 5045 4317 3*268 2 025 5 267 4317 3671 3*198 2 023 5 260 3671 3128 3 178 2 015 5 254 3128 2711 4 173 2 014 4 245 2711 2422 4 168 2 014 3 235 2422 2247 4 168 2 015 3*229 2247 2146 3 167 2 013 2*219 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography