DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/24 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1008z - - 1333z - - 1603z - - 1900z - - 2201z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.5 - - 84.0 - - 94.0 - - 94.3 - - 85.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 71 - - 290 - - 51 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 2423 - - 9097 - - 8824 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 2140 - - 3078 - - 8767 - - 6963 - - 2140 Hcrit BL Top 2156 - - 4523 - - 11197 - - 10924 - - 2157 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 850 - - 4357 - - 2494 - - 3087 - - 854 Hgt.Variab. W* 24 - - 259 - - 570 - - 322 - - 22 W* B/S 3 - - 8 - - 11 - - 6 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 6 - - 10 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 141 - - 228 - - 222 - - 238 - - 248 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -18 - - -12 - - -12 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1284 - - -173 - - 1638 - - -61 - - -7222 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3440 - - 4697 - - 9560 - - 10986 - - 9380 sfcLCL ODpotential -4491 - - -2232 - - 1059 - - -1024 - - -9743 ODpotential blCL 6647 - - 6755 - - 10138 - - 11948 - - 11900 blCL maxRH 95 - - 85 - - 83 - - 90 - - 91 maxRH CAPE 1640 - - 2670 - - 1060 - - 300 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 77.5 - - 84.0 - - 94.0 - - 94.3 - - 85.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 69.2 - - 70.1 - - 59.1 - - 53.3 - - 52.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.5 - - 83.2 - - 92.2 - - 93.7 - - 87.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 67.7 - - 68.6 - - 58.7 - - 52.8 - - 49.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 71 - - 290 - - 51 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 2423 - - 9097 - - 8824 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 82 - - 40 - - 33 - - 59 - - 63 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 16 - - 15 - - 11 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98235 18 098 24 109 17 122 11 098 16 101 98235 90830 14 095 18 113 19 126 8 115 14 107 90830 85109 9 099 11 100 15 131 8 144 10 110 85109 80359 4 092 5 081 8 119 7 150 6 123 80359 76282 1 030 2 293 4 057 4 094 3 150 76282 72701 2 005 5 281 4 353 6 051 2 082 72701 69479 2 323 5 289 5 322 5 030 4 038 69479 66536 0 351 4 312 4 320 4 032 3 015 66536 63825 3 094 1 207 4 266 3 001 3 012 63825 61218 4 113 7 182 10 229 7 273 7 287 61218 58516 1 142 8 184 11 218 12 244 13 257 58516 55730 10 291 10 247 14 248 15 252 18 250 55730 53078 22 282 20 261 26 249 27 257 24 252 53078 50685 30 269 29 258 38 250 43 258 35 257 50685 48536 37 262 37 256 46 249 53 255 49 257 48536 46580 44 263 43 258 50 250 57 255 58 256 46580 44776 50 263 49 260 52 252 60 257 62 256 44776 43096 54 263 53 259 54 253 62 257 65 255 43096 41520 57 266 56 259 55 251 64 255 67 256 41520 40034 59 269 58 261 56 251 64 255 66 258 40034 38631 59 269 60 265 56 255 63 256 65 260 38631 37273 58 269 60 265 57 260 62 259 62 262 37273 35899 55 269 55 264 55 264 57 262 52 264 35899 34482 51 267 49 261 48 264 49 264 44 271 34482 33026 47 264 44 257 43 262 41 266 38 274 33026 31513 42 264 40 258 42 259 34 268 34 273 31513 29928 39 262 36 257 38 257 31 271 31 273 29928 28272 35 260 33 253 35 252 28 269 28 272 28272 26543 31 262 30 253 32 247 28 262 26 273 26543 24742 25 270 24 256 28 245 27 257 23 265 24742 22876 17 272 18 255 21 246 24 255 22 261 22876 20940 13 262 17 248 16 258 19 257 20 264 20940 18923 12 229 16 238 12 279 10 270 15 273 18923 16869 16 215 14 223 9 272 3 261 7 274 16869 14897 15 206 14 208 7 230 5 191 7 183 14897 13114 14 199 15 202 9 206 6 182 13 153 13114 11531 13 210 12 206 9*208 6*195 9 146 11531 10116 11 216 9 214 10*213 7*202 4 158 10116 8848 8 211 8 219 10 222 8 230 5 215 8848 7715 4 209 8 223 11 223 9 236 7 239 7715 6705 3 222 9 225 10 223 10 240 9 250 6705 5808 3 228 10 225 10 223 10 241 10 258 5808 5012 4 227 10*226 10 223 10 243 12 264 5012 4295 5 228 9*227 10 223 10 243 13 266 4295 3658 6 229 7 228 9 222 10 243 15 267 3658 3123 5 219 6 229 9 222 10 244 15 266 3123 2711 3 188 5 228 8 222 10 244 14 265 2711 2428 4 151 5 229 8 221 10 244 11 261 2428 2255 3*137 4 228 8 221 9 243 8*255 2255 2157 2*141 4 228 7 221 8 244 5*248 2157 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography