DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.2 - - 67.6 - - 76.0 - - 71.4 - - 58.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 114 - - 172 - - -15 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 810 - - 3081 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 3840 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2910 - - 5181 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 73 - - 1080 - - 1545 - - 3202 - - 202 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 185 - - 331 - - 9 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 22 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 9 - - 3 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 163 - - 138 - - 108 - - 003 - - 287 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 1 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7120 - - -11045 - - -11003 - - -12557 - - -8844 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9263 - - 13956 - - 16185 - - 14702 - - 10988 sfcLCL ODpotential -20488 - - -19258 - - -17426 - - -19484 - - -18400 ODpotential blCL 22631 - - 22168 - - 22607 - - 21628 - - 20544 blCL maxRH 18 - - 48 - - 62 - - 12 - - 16 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 43.2 - - 67.6 - - 76.0 - - 71.4 - - 58.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 11.9 - - 14.5 - - 12.2 - - 14.8 - - 19.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.1 - - 66.6 - - 74.4 - - 72.6 - - 64.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 11.7 - - 14.1 - - 11.8 - - 14.3 - - 19.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 114 - - 172 - - -15 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 810 - - 3081 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96481 43 079 29 066 22 050 37 068 17 079 96481 89364 37 082 36 078 30 080 36 080 27 082 89364 83819 25 073 24 084 29 068 26 094 22 068 83819 79225 17 054 19 085 14 069 18 073 18 056 79225 75269 17 041 10 081 11 080 8 036 17 039 75269 71763 13 041 8 063 9 050 10 010 17 025 71763 68587 11 028 10 030 6 006 10 354 14 006 68587 65664 15 344 13 351 14 359 13 005 12 006 65664 62956 15 317 18 324 22 341 21 352 19 344 62956 60357 18 315 17 328 23 335 26 343 23 336 60357 57666 22 317 21 325 26 320 32 323 28 324 57666 54881 28 323 28 317 33 311 38 313 32 315 54881 52220 36 318 34 315 38 312 40 307 37 309 52220 49822 46 312 40 315 42 314 44 306 41 307 49822 47673 52 308 45 314 46 313 49 306 43 311 47673 45716 55 306 49 314 47 312 50 303 44 309 45716 43906 53 306 49 310 44 310 48 299 41 308 43906 42216 49 307 45 306 41 301 49 289 42 299 42216 40641 48 311 44 307 45 293 49 284 46 289 40641 39182 46 315 45 305 46 292 57 286 59 282 39182 37821 41 313 42 307 44 296 52 290 63 278 37821 36511 39 309 38 303 42 292 48 291 57 283 36511 35183 36 308 37 298 37 290 44 288 47 288 35183 33809 32 307 34 302 35 293 36 286 44 289 33809 32390 27 305 27 308 29 294 32 287 41 292 32390 30913 26 306 24 315 23 298 27 290 37 292 30913 29364 28 303 23 310 24 304 25 292 31 290 29364 27745 21 295 25 294 25 301 26 300 26 291 27745 26058 17 296 24 298 25 293 28 303 29 295 26058 24305 15 301 20 312 21 302 27 295 31 295 24305 22483 17 320 18 320 19 311 24 297 30 292 22483 20585 17 330 15 326 16 310 20 307 25 294 20585 18609 16 348 13 344 13 315 19 311 21 299 18609 16593 16 357 13 356 12 325 18 312 20 311 16593 14648 15 355 12 357 12 331 14 319 19 327 14648 12875 13 351 13 349 13 336 13 330 18 336 12875 11296 12 346 13 341 14 339 13 343 15 344 11296 9891 12 345 12 342 12 344 11 354 10 353 9891 8640 10 000 9 349 9 340 10 358 5 359 8640 7527 6 038 5 034 3 331 6 001 2 307 7527 6540 5 084 6 077 3 151 0 099 2 242 6540 5667 5 095 5 085 4*140 2 140 1 203 5667 4893 6 110 5 109 3*129 2 108 1 062 4893 4199 10 129 9 132 3 121 3 037 4 017 4199 3584 16 133 14 137 3 112 5 014 7 010 3584 3069 19 132 13*138 3 100 7 008 10 358 3069 2674 18 135 11*139 3 091 8 006 10 344 2674 2403 15 141 9 138 3 086 8 005 9 333 2403 2238 10*148 9 138 3 083 7*004 4*317 2238 2144 6*163 7 138 2 083 5*003 3*287 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography