DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/25 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.8 - - 65.0 - - 71.2 - - 67.1 - - 54.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -37 - - 149 - - 232 - - -20 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1911 - - 5650 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2935 - - 5912 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 4011 - - 7750 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 54 - - 1922 - - 2270 - - 6799 - - 228 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 269 - - 447 - - 7 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 15 - - 21 - - 9 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 157 - - 193 - - 222 - - 227 - - 187 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -6 - - -11 - - -5 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -11400 - - -12986 - - -10154 - - -13849 - - -11493 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 13543 - - 16997 - - 17905 - - 15994 - - 13637 sfcLCL ODpotential -22428 - - -19212 - - -15203 - - -19059 - - -19170 ODpotential blCL 24570 - - 23223 - - 22953 - - 21203 - - 21313 blCL maxRH 82 - - 88 - - 98 - - 61 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.8 - - 65.0 - - 71.2 - - 67.1 - - 54.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m -7.5 - - -3.0 - - -1.7 - - 3.5 - - 3.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.0 - - 63.9 - - 69.7 - - 67.8 - - 60.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot -7.7 - - -3.2 - - -1.9 - - 3.5 - - 3.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -37 - - 149 - - 232 - - -20 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1911 - - 5650 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 27 - - 51 - - 93 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96667 11 287 19 290 20 275 23 302 11 279 96667 89512 1 062 1 293 6 253 5 304 3 306 89512 83982 3 076 5 160 3 302 4 270 8 333 83982 79363 3 357 4 087 3 073 3 225 9 278 79363 75363 5 300 5 350 6 036 6 219 9 257 75363 71829 8 265 7 285 7 327 6 269 7 295 71829 68641 8 280 9 268 8 289 8 310 5 297 68641 65721 14 277 12 276 12 269 18 287 16 283 65721 63028 18 269 22 265 23 270 23 275 24 274 63028 60424 28 265 30 261 30 270 35 262 34 264 60424 57696 35 265 36 263 39 263 39 260 39 268 57696 54832 42 271 42 264 44 264 46 266 47 270 54832 52059 50 267 51 265 52 266 56 266 56 269 52059 49544 56 265 57 264 58 262 64 265 66 265 49544 47282 58 264 59 259 64 260 71 263 75 263 47282 45228 60 263 62 256 71 260 74 263 82 264 45228 43347 63 261 64 258 76 263 80 265 88 266 43347 41615 66 260 68 262 82 265 88 267 94 266 41615 40016 64 258 74 264 84 265 93 267 98 264 40016 38539 61 258 72 262 80 268 95 266 101 262 38539 37170 58 256 66 263 81 272 99 267 103 260 37170 35865 54 254 60 267 85 274 105 269 106 260 35865 34547 47 253 57 270 88 274 105 269 107 261 34547 33181 42 251 55 270 87 274 100 267 105 260 33181 31769 42 250 52 267 79 270 96 267 103 259 31769 30297 45 249 45 258 69 263 93 267 102 259 30297 28756 48 248 44 249 64 257 86 265 98 259 28756 27149 47 248 45 247 62 251 77 259 91 259 27149 25478 47 248 46 245 59 247 72 253 81 256 25478 23747 48 247 47 243 55 245 66 251 70 252 23747 21961 49 246 48 244 51 246 57 248 61 249 21961 20111 44 244 47 243 48 248 51 246 54 247 20111 18187 38 241 41 242 44 248 47 244 49 247 18187 16226 35 241 35 245 39 244 43 243 44 246 16226 14335 35 241 33 245 33 239 38 240 39 243 14335 12614 33 240 30 241 30 233 34 237 34 237 12614 11081 28 238 27 236 28 228 32 232 30 232 11081 9717 25 236 24 232 27 224 30 224 29 227 9717 8501 23 235 23 229 25*220 26 214 28 219 8501 7417 21 234 22 226 22*219 24 212 29 211 7417 6454 20 233 23 224 22 220 23 215 29 208 6454 5602 20 231 25 220 22 221 22 218 29 211 5602 4846 19 229 25 214 22 222 21 220 29 215 4846 4166 19 224 22*206 21 224 20 222 27 217 4166 3563 19 213 18*196 21 224 20 224 23 218 3563 3057 18 198 16 193 20 225 19 225 18 217 3057 2668 14 180 15 192 20 226 17 227 14 214 2668 2400 11 154 14 191 19 226 15 228 10 208 2400 2237 9 151 13 191 18 227 13*228 7 195 2237 2143 7*157 11 190 15 227 9*227 6*187 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography