DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/23 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.5 - - 87.8 - - 92.9 - - 88.7 - - 75.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -12 - - 276 - - 309 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4720 - - 8033 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 5291 - - 7946 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 6820 - - 10133 - - 2146 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1381 - - 2612 - - 2556 - - 10349 - - 1936 Hgt.Variab. W* 30 - - 449 - - 556 - - 35 - - 32 W* B/S 1 - - 11 - - 50 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 9 - - 7 - - 2 - - 6 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 142 - - 131 - - 130 - - 157 - - 118 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -8 - - -3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2679 - - -1912 - - -262 - - -6437 - - -230 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4824 - - 8732 - - 10395 - - 8583 - - 2375 sfcLCL ODpotential -6192 - - -3812 - - -1130 - - -7625 - - -2550 ODpotential blCL 8337 - - 10632 - - 11263 - - 9771 - - 4695 blCL maxRH 79 - - 95 - - 78 - - 98 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 870 - - 810 - - 1030 - - 1560 - - 3060 CAPE Temp@2m 75.5 - - 87.8 - - 92.9 - - 88.7 - - 75.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 61.5 - - 56.7 - - 54.4 - - 58.4 - - 71.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.2 - - 85.7 - - 90.7 - - 89.2 - - 75.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 60.6 - - 56.4 - - 54.1 - - 57.8 - - 70.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -12 - - 276 - - 309 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4720 - - 8033 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 14 - - 78 - - 12 - - 92 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 10 - - 9 - - 11 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98457 6 253 10 217 11 246 12 265 9 305 98457 91037 12 101 5 194 10 213 8 192 5 292 91037 85330 13 089 9 068 12 142 6 128 7 137 85330 80604 7 088 13 083 8 120 7 096 8 094 80604 76545 5 114 10 096 9 098 11 112 5 036 76545 72971 11 104 10 123 9 124 7 115 4 108 72971 69740 6 079 3 121 10 118 3 112 8 094 69740 66774 8 211 8 182 6 153 2 177 7 063 66774 64025 7 178 7 188 6 171 4 202 1 057 64025 61374 5 195 12 207 9 231 9 237 2 274 61374 58605 11 187 15 199 16 214 16 235 6 260 58605 55740 12 186 18 201 20 202 24 226 24 232 55740 53027 15 214 20 216 21 209 30 211 38 220 53027 50581 27 220 32 214 32 206 33 196 41 202 50581 48372 34 219 40 208 36 213 31 211 31 210 48372 46357 40 217 44 210 45 217 42 221 39 222 46357 44509 46 209 45 200 51 209 53 216 52 219 44509 42811 47 199 43 189 48 199 55 209 56 212 42811 41243 43 192 42 184 45 196 55 206 55 203 41243 39785 43 181 41 183 41 192 62 196 47 186 39785 38415 48 173 42 183 40 192 68 190 40 180 38415 37087 49 175 42 184 37 196 61 189 26 174 37087 35735 48 177 39 186 33 196 47 190 26 171 35735 34331 42 180 34 187 29 200 36 190 27 176 34331 32879 27 197 25 183 20 203 26 189 24 178 32879 31365 19 212 16 188 18 200 20 193 25 180 31365 29778 16 223 17 197 19 194 20 198 18 186 29778 28118 9 217 15 197 20 196 15 204 14 188 28118 26389 7 187 11 193 13 194 11 220 13 197 26389 24595 7 194 6 174 7 184 8 241 7 208 24595 22738 6 215 5 203 6 181 5 269 1 225 22738 20813 3 228 7 202 7 183 4 265 3 038 20813 18817 2 141 7 189 6 184 3 241 5 036 18817 16790 2 110 5 158 4 176 0 105 7 038 16790 14838 1 179 4 106 3 136 4 106 6 041 14838 13058 2 198 6 074 3 117 3 095 4 027 13058 11471 1 156 6 069 4*133 2 110 1 346 11471 10054 3 081 5 063 3*132 2 129 2 193 10054 8787 3 070 5 061 3 132 3 135 5 174 8787 7654 3 041 5*074 3 134 3 138 8 164 7654 6646 2 043 5*102 2 132 4 139 11 156 6646 5754 3 157 7 125 2 132 5 143 15 150 5754 4963 10 158 7 131 2 130 6 147 17 145 4963 4253 16 153 8 134 1 131 6 149 17 140 4253 3623 23 143 8 135 1 124 7 152 15 139 3623 3097 24 140 8 136 1 115 7 154 15 135 3097 2692 21 138 8 137 1 111 8 156 14 129 2692 2412 17 138 7 138 1 106 8 156 11 123 2412 2242 15*140 7 138 1 112 7*156 10*120 2242 2145 9*142 7 138 1 109 6*157 7*118 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography