DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/23 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 63.4 - - 73.6 - - 79.0 - - 76.8 - - 67.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 21 - - 277 - - 277 - - 8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 146 - - 3369 - - 5532 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4257 - - 5918 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2246 - - 5469 - - 7632 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1192 - - 1933 - - 2263 - - 7785 - - 1762 Hgt.Variab. W* 59 - - 400 - - 473 - - 30 - - 0 W* B/S 5 - - 35 - - 13 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 2 - - 6 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 254 - - 283 - - 260 - - 313 - - 330 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - -5 - - 0 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2312 - - -2212 - - -2297 - - -8607 - - -5478 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4558 - - 7681 - - 9929 - - 10753 - - 7622 sfcLCL ODpotential -7309 - - -5870 - - -6193 - - -13256 - - -11041 ODpotential blCL 9555 - - 11339 - - 13825 - - 15401 - - 13185 blCL maxRH 70 - - 70 - - 61 - - 57 - - 70 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 63.4 - - 73.6 - - 79.0 - - 76.8 - - 67.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 50.8 - - 47.3 - - 42.6 - - 37.0 - - 41.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 63.0 - - 71.8 - - 77.0 - - 76.6 - - 69.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 50.7 - - 47.1 - - 42.2 - - 36.6 - - 41.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 21 - - 277 - - 277 - - 8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 146 - - 3369 - - 5532 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97506 17 255 18 245 21 236 18 246 20 269 97506 90139 6 271 14 241 13 251 14 275 10 320 90139 84534 5 301 5 247 10 258 8 280 9 338 84534 79917 4 278 5 338 5 265 5 315 8 319 79917 75938 2 007 5 349 7 341 4 312 4 307 75938 72427 3 032 5 002 8 350 8 040 3 342 72427 69246 6 359 6 030 2 110 4 050 7 343 69246 66326 3 046 5 031 7 050 5 059 9 342 66326 63611 5 264 5 250 7 300 8 349 13 322 63611 60988 13 247 16 231 18 241 18 243 18 251 60988 58263 14 221 20 228 17 230 17 216 19 220 58263 55416 30 240 29 236 29 241 27 248 25 252 55416 52704 38 246 33 242 35 246 33 243 34 243 52704 50262 43 253 41 249 42 246 40 247 43 241 50262 48061 46 249 46 248 48 245 48 248 46 240 48061 46049 49 247 50 246 55 246 55 249 49 240 46049 44192 52 243 56 244 60 243 61 248 52 239 44192 42466 54 238 59 240 63 239 64 245 54 237 42466 40852 56 235 59 236 63 235 65 240 57 235 40852 39338 57 234 59 232 63 232 63 235 61 233 39338 37916 58 233 59 229 62 229 61 231 64 229 37916 36548 59 230 58 229 60 227 61 228 66 224 36548 35168 57 231 57 230 59 227 60 227 65 218 35168 33751 57 233 58 231 58 229 60 231 61 218 33751 32303 57 233 59 228 59 229 62 233 61 223 32303 30805 55 231 58 227 59 226 65 230 63 224 30805 29240 56 230 58 227 56 224 63 224 66 223 29240 27607 60 228 59 224 54 224 59 221 67 220 27607 25907 61 228 62 223 55 224 56 221 64 215 25907 24145 57 229 60 223 55 225 54 222 60 214 24145 22322 50 229 51 224 51 225 51 221 57 214 22322 20432 46 230 44 224 46 225 45 220 53 213 20432 18468 42 230 39 223 42 224 42 220 49 211 18468 16470 35 228 37 219 41 222 39 221 45 211 16470 14544 31 224 35 217 39 220 35 220 38 209 14544 12794 29 221 31 218 35 219 31 217 33 202 12794 11239 25 220 25 215 28 211 26 201 30 189 11239 9858 21 221 21 208 22 198 19 188 24 182 9858 8626 21 215 19 208 15*201 13 198 14 202 8626 7526 20 203 18 208 10*213 8 227 11 231 7526 6545 16 192 13 207 8 225 7 257 9 249 6545 5676 10 179 6*205 7 252 7 284 5 274 5676 4904 6 161 3*222 7 272 8 296 4 348 4904 4210 3 128 2 275 7 279 8 303 8 007 4210 3593 1 063 2 284 7 283 8 307 11 005 3593 3077 3 308 2 294 7 288 8 310 12 001 3077 2680 5 289 2 302 7 290 8 311 12 360 2680 2406 5*269 2 305 7 291 8 312 9 358 2406 2240 3*254 2 306 7 292 8*313 5 347 2240 2144 2 254 2 306 6 293 7*313 3*330 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography