DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 05/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1002z - - 1335z - - 1602z - - 1902z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.7 - - 90.6 - - 94.7 - - 92.8 - - 81.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 148 - - 486 - - 514 - - 213 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1547 - - 8585 - - 10828 - - 9906 - - 29 BL Depth Hcrit 2668 - - 8620 - - 10487 - - 9186 - - 2112 Hcrit BL Top 3647 - - 10685 - - 12928 - - 12006 - - 2129 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1478 - - 2047 - - 2046 - - 1957 - - 3936 Hgt.Variab. W* 250 - - 659 - - 725 - - 525 - - 0 W* B/S 4 - - 8 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 12 - - 15 - - 17 - - 19 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 167 - - 204 - - 209 - - 216 - - 249 Direction Wind Shear 10 - - 9 - - 7 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 14 - - -13 - - -15 - - -8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9764 - - -7073 - - -4991 - - -4842 - - -11760 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 13412 - - 17759 - - 17920 - - 16849 - - 13890 sfcLCL ODpotential -15736 - - -11512 - - -8624 - - -8599 - - -16989 ODpotential blCL 19383 - - 22197 - - 21552 - - 20605 - - 19118 blCL maxRH 57 - - 75 - - 90 - - 67 - - 45 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 77.7 - - 90.6 - - 94.7 - - 92.8 - - 81.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 26.3 - - 18.3 - - 21.4 - - 24.8 - - 27.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.4 - - 87.9 - - 91.7 - - 91.1 - - 81.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 26.2 - - 18.3 - - 21.4 - - 24.8 - - 27.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 148 - - 486 - - 514 - - 213 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1547 - - 8585 - - 10828 - - 9906 - - 29 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 1 - - 61 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98221 8 076 15 067 9 151 6 358 6 003 98221 91193 5 094 12 072 6 110 4 031 5 048 91193 85709 5 088 10 081 6 065 8 049 5 088 85709 81121 4 068 6 089 6 067 8 045 6 088 81121 77149 6 089 4 157 7 062 7 050 7 075 77149 73623 7 089 5 193 4 064 7 074 7 072 73623 70420 6 090 7 190 3 293 5 047 8 085 70420 67470 1 103 5 160 3 277 2 283 3 055 67470 64739 7 263 3 147 2 196 3 206 2 243 64739 62101 16 240 15 240 11 251 7 234 6 204 62101 59345 15 235 20 244 15 244 10 242 13 241 59345 56480 18 250 19 251 23 247 23 244 28 244 56480 53750 30 251 32 249 35 247 29 249 31 243 53750 51304 39 246 42 245 44 247 35 253 31 245 51304 49120 44 244 46 244 48 246 42 251 34 249 49120 47142 45 246 45 244 47 245 45 250 40 251 47142 45336 44 250 42 248 44 249 46 254 45 252 45336 43679 43 256 41 255 45 258 51 258 49 253 43679 42147 43 261 44 259 49 262 56 259 52 254 42147 40717 44 264 47 263 53 263 58 258 54 255 40717 39369 43 267 49 264 53 260 59 256 56 256 39369 38063 43 270 50 265 52 256 58 254 56 255 38063 36728 42 271 49 264 51 251 56 251 55 253 36728 35336 41 267 48 261 51 247 55 248 54 251 35336 33887 41 261 46 256 51 246 53 246 53 248 33887 32369 43 254 44 251 52 245 52 245 51 246 32369 30768 44 250 43 247 51 242 52 242 49 244 30768 29087 43 248 42 244 49 238 51 240 47 241 29087 27323 41 245 42 241 47 236 49 238 46 237 27323 25478 37 238 41 237 44 234 47 235 44 233 25478 23554 36 229 38 228 41 229 43 228 43 228 23554 21547 36 220 37 219 39 221 41 220 41 221 21547 19453 35 210 37 212 36 213 38 212 39 214 19453 17316 35 202 36 207 33 206 34 204 36 208 17316 15254 33 197 34 203 27 197 30 195 33 203 15254 13378 29 194 30 200 22*193 25*191 30 200 13378 11709 24 192 24*198 19*199 21*198 27 197 11709 10224 20 193 19*198 18 203 20 206 25 194 10224 8904 18 196 16 201 18 205 19 211 23 194 8904 7732 17 198 15 203 18 207 19 214 21 197 7732 6693 17 200 15 203 17 210 19 218 21 206 6693 5778 18 199 14 205 17 212 19 220 21 219 5778 4972 19 196 14 205 17 213 19 223 23 231 4972 4251 19*190 13 206 17 214 19 224 24 237 4251 3614 17*181 13 206 17 215 19 226 24 241 3614 3083 13 166 12 207 16 216 18 227 24 244 3083 2676 11 162 12 207 16 217 18 228 22 246 2676 2396 10 161 12 207 16 217 18 228 19 247 2396 2226 9 160 11 207 15 217 17 228 16*248 2226 2129 8 159 10 207 14 217 15 229 10*249 2129 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography