DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0704z - - 1336z - - 1605z - - 1905z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.0 - - 73.7 - - 77.2 - - 90.5 - - 82.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 5 - - -9 - - 95 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 56 - - 56 - - 4915 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 2139 - - 2139 - - 2140 - - 4854 - - 2140 Hcrit BL Top 2156 - - 2156 - - 2156 - - 7015 - - 2157 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 706 - - 1781 - - 2106 - - 3506 - - 1177 Hgt.Variab. W* 38 - - 37 - - 34 - - 328 - - 15 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 14 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 9 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 157 - - 202 - - 079 - - 345 - - 189 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -4 - - 2 - - 3 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -654 - - -136 - - -543 - - -144 - - -2493 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2810 - - 2292 - - 2699 - - 7159 - - 4651 sfcLCL ODpotential -5099 - - -2097 - - -3608 - - -2038 - - -5550 ODpotential blCL 7255 - - 4253 - - 5764 - - 9053 - - 7707 blCL maxRH 99 - - 100 - - 100 - - 90 - - 89 maxRH CAPE 750 - - 840 - - 1880 - - 1500 - - 1720 CAPE Temp@2m 75.0 - - 73.7 - - 77.2 - - 90.5 - - 82.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 69.4 - - 70.3 - - 72.0 - - 66.2 - - 68.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.9 - - 73.4 - - 77.4 - - 89.9 - - 83.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 68.4 - - 69.5 - - 71.0 - - 64.7 - - 68.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 5 - - -9 - - 95 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 56 - - 56 - - 4915 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 94 - - 101 - - 100 - - 61 - - 57 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 16 - - 17 - - 18 - - 14 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98762 50 100 41 100 42 111 37 113 31 093 98762 91294 35 102 34 095 37 099 40 109 34 096 91294 85542 27 091 32 099 28 097 35 100 34 101 85542 80797 26 088 31 106 26 097 26 083 29 097 80797 76726 23 096 27 106 26 100 22 077 25 093 76726 73126 20 099 21 092 26 106 22 096 23 096 73126 69862 20 098 17 076 22 095 24 110 22 099 69862 66875 21 094 18 089 19 071 22 096 22 097 66875 64131 22 097 21 112 14 074 19 070 22 084 64131 61495 20 093 20 122 12 116 14 070 19 069 61495 58764 15 087 16 112 16 132 8 115 14 066 58764 55952 11 091 19 102 17 126 14 136 9 100 55952 53301 11 080 23 096 18 105 19 118 13 118 53301 50944 10 078 17 080 16 076 17 095 16 110 50944 48840 13 128 9 078 11 058 17 086 17 097 48840 46919 26 096 12 093 14 094 22 079 15 091 46919 45141 24 093 25 087 19 098 20 078 13 094 45141 43477 20 091 27 093 18 101 16 089 15 096 43477 41909 18 089 24 101 16 103 17 091 16 097 41909 40427 18 077 20 092 17 103 17 090 15 105 40427 39022 15 063 19 076 18 102 14 096 13 111 39022 37661 10 063 14 075 17 094 11 103 11 101 37661 36276 8 082 11 059 15 085 12 105 10 092 36276 34840 8 073 9 036 11 072 11 111 10 083 34840 33356 9 056 10 024 8 050 10 109 9 085 33356 31811 7 011 7 014 7 015 10 101 8 092 31811 30193 11 343 6 008 5 033 9 103 6 098 30193 28505 12 346 5 346 3 047 8 107 4 094 28505 26746 12 342 6 318 5 338 3 109 4 061 26746 24920 6 312 7 323 6 330 2 006 4 041 24920 23030 7 301 8 335 6 341 8 322 6 000 23030 21071 10 310 9 346 7 354 9 345 11 347 21071 19037 13 318 9 334 7 345 11 351 11 348 19037 16974 12 317 10 308 8 310 10 344 10 356 16974 14991 11 337 9 317 10 297 13 331 13 355 14991 13188 17 007 9 359 8 307 13 328 12 346 13188 11583 21 357 14 011 7 327 11 323 13 345 11583 10153 17 354 14 355 8 321 9 326 14 341 10153 8876 14 322 10 330 10 310 8 334 13 340 8876 7736 15 298 9 295 12 298 8*343 13 345 7736 6721 15 288 11 263 13 289 7*347 11 349 6721 5820 14 277 11 253 10 289 7 350 9 355 5820 5019 14 265 9 257 5 299 5 351 7 359 5019 4299 14 250 8 259 2 360 4 347 3 001 4299 3660 13 225 8 254 5 067 3 341 1 206 3660 3124 14 189 8 245 8 077 2 333 5 191 3124 2712 17 168 8 227 10 079 2 325 7 188 2712 2428 16 162 7 207 10 079 2 321 7 186 2428 2256 13*160 7*203 8 079 2 319 6*188 2256 2157 9*157 6*202 6*079 2 316 5*189 2157 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography