DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 04/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.4 - - 83.2 - - 85.0 - - 82.4 - - 75.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 52 - - 265 - - 231 - - 10 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 961 - - 4708 - - 10498 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 5255 - - 9712 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 3061 - - 6808 - - 12598 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1274 - - 7378 - - 1533 - - 11988 - - 6672 Hgt.Variab. W* 150 - - 440 - - 549 - - 31 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 6 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 16 - - 12 - - 17 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 152 - - 166 - - 242 - - 243 - - 352 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - -3 - - -39 - - -3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6826 - - -5323 - - -1792 - - -10716 - - -9575 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9887 - - 12132 - - 14391 - - 12862 - - 11720 sfcLCL ODpotential -8902 - - -5949 - - -2930 - - -11782 - - -11560 ODpotential blCL 11963 - - 12757 - - 15528 - - 13927 - - 13705 blCL maxRH 95 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 75.4 - - 83.2 - - 85.0 - - 82.4 - - 75.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.7 - - 37.2 - - 28.4 - - 33.0 - - 31.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.9 - - 81.4 - - 83.4 - - 82.2 - - 77.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.7 - - 37.1 - - 28.4 - - 32.9 - - 31.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 52 - - 265 - - 231 - - 10 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 961 - - 4708 - - 10498 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 81 - - 100 - - 100 - - 101 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96904 40 282 46 285 42 270 55 272 55 285 96904 89599 32 279 32 285 33 275 33 282 39 294 89599 84028 23 288 19 280 24 283 19 290 22 301 84028 79418 20 306 12 296 19 305 15 324 19 312 79418 75459 13 320 8 335 14 327 13 337 20 320 75459 72006 12 001 9 352 12 339 11 345 15 333 72006 68907 15 346 10 341 13 353 12 344 9 360 68907 66054 9 320 9 347 9 342 9 290 11 332 66054 63399 13 327 12 343 8 334 12 287 17 283 63399 60807 22 301 15 298 16 285 15 289 13 283 60807 58070 35 269 26 286 30 287 34 293 31 286 58070 55213 35 265 36 275 42 277 44 273 43 272 55213 52467 39 274 45 275 46 273 46 274 53 278 52467 49973 53 273 48 282 50 275 59 278 65 275 49973 47732 64 274 53 284 52 274 68 276 64 275 47732 45699 77 278 70 278 76 274 73 272 59 275 45699 43843 75 278 77 274 83 270 74 267 58 277 43843 42144 75 281 80 274 78 269 73 274 59 281 42144 40579 91 292 81 273 86 275 87 282 77 289 40579 39120 98 294 78 277 90 275 106 283 111 284 39120 37743 83 291 82 279 93 277 113 281 125 283 37743 36411 69 285 90 280 97 279 115 282 125 288 36411 35060 73 280 89 276 96 280 107 283 108 288 35060 33666 75 280 85 272 90 277 93 282 95 282 33666 32229 70 280 76 273 86 274 87 276 89 279 32229 30733 62 276 64 272 77 273 84 273 81 279 30733 29164 56 271 59 272 67 272 72 270 69 279 29164 27528 53 270 57 272 59 271 60 267 57 277 27528 25833 54 271 53 270 49 272 52 267 49 284 25833 24084 55 272 47 271 42 271 43 264 48 293 24084 22277 51 273 39 267 40 261 36 260 42 292 22277 20402 46 274 37 260 38 256 36 259 35 288 20402 18450 43 275 33 255 37 256 36 258 32 284 18450 16469 41 276 25 249 34 253 35 254 25 256 16469 14568 28 265 15 216 25 248 33 254 16 245 14568 12839 18 224 13 210 16*241 28 253 14 252 12839 11295 14 227 15 218 15*239 22 251 13 257 11295 9914 9 222 12 214 15 239 19 248 12 257 9914 8678 6 205 11 211 16 240 18 248 9 258 8678 7571 5 190 12*206 17 241 16 247 7 263 7571 6585 6 205 12*196 18 242 14 247 4 279 6585 5709 9 216 13 182 18 242 13 246 3 317 5709 4931 13 201 13 172 19 243 12 245 3 360 4931 4231 16 178 13 158 19 243 11 245 5 020 4231 3609 21 157 14 156 20 244 10 245 7 029 3609 3088 20*154 13 154 20 244 10 245 9 032 3088 2686 19*152 13 153 19 244 9 245 9 029 2686 2409 17 152 13 152 19 244 8 244 9 022 2409 2241 16 152 12 151 18 244 8*243 6*010 2241 2145 12 153 11 151 16 243 7*243 4*352 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography