DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 02/12 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 71.0 - - 76.8 - - 75.5 - - 66.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 217 - - 282 - - 22 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2434 - - 6289 - - 4455 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3471 - - 6512 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4534 - - 8389 - - 6555 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2781 - - 2002 - - 3847 - - 994 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 330 - - 495 - - 191 - - 20 W* B/S - - - 28 - - 18 - - 11 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 134 - - 236 - - 341 - - 017 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 5 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -5 - - -4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5050 - - -3391 - - -5355 - - -8137 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9585 - - 11781 - - 11911 - - 10281 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8135 - - -6135 - - -8435 - - -12623 ODpotential blCL - - - 12669 - - 14524 - - 14990 - - 14767 blCL maxRH - - - 74 - - 89 - - 87 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 71.0 - - 76.8 - - 75.5 - - 66.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 36.6 - - 32.3 - - 30.6 - - 29.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 69.4 - - 74.8 - - 75.1 - - 69.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 36.4 - - 32.2 - - 30.5 - - 29.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 217 - - 282 - - 22 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2434 - - 6289 - - 4455 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 55 - - 48 - - 34 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96228 17 084 22 035 20 070 17 089 96228 89229 27 083 19 095 17 082 18 073 89229 83772 24 074 26 101 14 096 14 074 83772 79218 17 091 16 099 12 078 14 070 79218 75295 18 099 13 102 12 110 7 042 75295 71826 8 099 9 045 14 112 2 064 71826 68687 5 092 9 318 3 011 3 265 68687 65808 2 034 14 245 15 272 14 278 65808 63136 22 258 24 243 23 254 21 280 63136 60536 37 234 35 245 41 243 35 246 60536 57818 53 236 52 240 49 235 53 241 57818 54972 64 236 65 244 69 240 67 234 54972 52229 71 240 82 245 81 241 73 244 52229 49750 88 243 96 241 97 241 91 246 49750 47525 100 244 103 238 108 238 105 240 47525 45502 106 243 98 239 104 236 106 237 45502 43646 111 239 102 239 101 236 101 237 43646 41940 115 233 112 235 109 235 104 237 41940 40367 115 230 113 234 117 233 106 234 40367 38912 109 232 110 237 116 230 114 231 38912 37551 107 240 111 236 111 231 116 229 37551 36237 109 240 109 236 105 233 111 230 36237 34903 107 239 104 238 100 234 107 232 34903 33522 102 237 98 238 95 235 103 232 33522 32098 96 236 93 234 86 238 90 234 32098 30625 86 236 80 233 75 239 75 235 30625 29085 71 239 65 239 65 235 76 236 29085 27473 65 244 63 241 61 235 73 238 27473 25791 62 241 64 236 62 237 67 241 25791 24045 60 238 62 238 62 240 60 244 24045 22240 56 243 54 245 56 249 52 248 22240 20371 46 249 45 254 47 253 40 253 20371 18432 35 245 34 254 39 254 33 244 18432 16457 31 233 29 242 28 254 32 229 16457 14551 30 231 26 243 25 247 26 224 14551 12810 23 232 20 242 21 244 16 231 12810 11254 13 221 15 224 17 220 13 227 11254 9866 8 217 12 213 13 201 16 194 9866 8628 7 235 8*217 10 198 14 189 8628 7526 7 246 7*220 7*200 7 204 7526 6544 7 235 6 223 3*213 4 210 6544 5674 7 207 5 231 1 310 2 196 5674 4901 5*169 5 238 3 338 1 060 4901 4207 3*147 5 243 4 346 4 031 4207 3591 2 138 4 247 4 349 8 025 3591 3076 2 134 4 251 5 350 11 021 3076 2678 2 128 4 255 5 351 11 019 2678 2405 2 121 4 258 5 351 10 021 2405 2239 2 116 4 257 5 351 6*023 2239 2144 2 115 3 258 5 352 3*017 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography