DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.5 - - 76.5 - - 83.0 - - 79.3 - - 68.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 165 - - 184 - - -16 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1384 - - 4928 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2608 - - 5243 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 3484 - - 7028 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 129 - - 1530 - - 3011 - - 8128 - - 230 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 250 - - 397 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 80 - - 25 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 188 - - 218 - - 242 - - 333 - - 194 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -3 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5407 - - -9073 - - -5778 - - -10343 - - -9124 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7551 - - 12558 - - 12807 - - 12488 - - 11269 sfcLCL ODpotential -16469 - - -17518 - - -11783 - - -17477 - - -19156 ODpotential blCL 18613 - - 21002 - - 18811 - - 19622 - - 21300 blCL maxRH 40 - - 62 - - 53 - - 49 - - 45 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 59.5 - - 76.5 - - 83.0 - - 79.3 - - 68.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 34.8 - - 29.1 - - 34.0 - - 32.0 - - 27.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.5 - - 75.1 - - 81.4 - - 81.0 - - 73.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.7 - - 29.0 - - 33.9 - - 31.8 - - 26.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 165 - - 184 - - -16 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1384 - - 4928 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96603 50 281 50 276 54 270 53 276 56 274 96603 89435 33 278 34 270 39 265 40 273 44 279 89435 83954 24 252 25 276 24 273 22 264 30 290 83954 79405 14 261 13 282 16 280 14 264 18 293 79405 75469 9 306 9 307 7 287 12 290 8 305 75469 71979 8 348 9 271 7 313 9 314 5 347 71979 68837 10 348 5 253 6 307 4 311 4 343 68837 65983 9 294 6 236 5 260 6 293 4 263 65983 63365 9 265 9 243 9 236 14 270 12 262 63365 60840 11 241 15 249 13 235 18 248 13 269 60840 58186 13 235 19 238 19 244 19 234 15 251 58186 55408 20 232 24 220 25 242 20 243 19 242 55408 52738 28 229 31 213 33 232 28 241 26 245 52738 50321 29 237 28 217 35 220 35 226 33 235 50321 48149 39 239 36 237 38 222 38 218 34 223 48149 46185 44 238 47 241 44 231 41 223 33 218 46185 44397 48 240 52 243 51 236 45 229 36 227 44397 42745 48 236 51 241 52 236 45 228 42 227 42745 41196 43 234 50 236 49 236 43 227 41 221 41196 39734 42 233 50 233 48 240 42 230 41 222 39734 38353 41 226 48 229 48 240 41 231 41 222 38353 37015 39 217 43 223 47 234 39 228 40 218 37015 35656 39 212 42 215 45 226 39 226 40 215 35656 34247 38 215 41 212 44 221 40 225 39 215 34247 32789 37 222 39 215 41 222 40 224 39 217 32789 31272 37 227 37 219 39 220 37 218 38 217 31272 29683 38 224 38 216 40 216 35 215 37 216 29683 28023 37 225 39 215 39 215 33 213 35 214 28023 26292 33 226 36 219 37 213 34 207 34 209 26292 24492 29 223 32 217 35 211 33 210 33 209 24492 22627 25 226 29 216 30 214 27 221 27 212 22627 20695 21 230 26 217 24 218 22 222 23 209 20695 18691 17 225 22 212 22 221 18 216 19 208 18691 16658 14 221 17 215 19 219 15 213 14 206 16658 14703 12 218 14 228 14 218 12 210 10 209 14703 12926 13 206 13 224 10 217 14 194 12 201 12926 11348 14 200 16 197 16 201 18 180 17 173 11348 9947 13 197 22 186 21 189 15 191 14 175 9947 8700 11 198 23 182 18 191 11 208 11 210 8700 7587 9 190 19 180 13*195 8 231 10 228 7587 6595 9 179 15 181 9*201 7 252 8 251 6595 5716 9 176 12 182 5 213 6 274 7 270 5716 4935 8 181 9 183 3 243 7 291 7 280 4935 4232 7 189 6 186 3 265 7 305 6 291 4232 3609 7 197 2*193 2 280 8 315 4 305 3609 3086 8 199 1*208 3 293 8 320 4 336 3086 2684 9 199 1 219 3 299 8 326 4 007 2684 2408 9 194 0 224 3 302 8 329 2 023 2408 2240 7*185 0 242 3 304 7*331 1 160 2240 2144 4*188 0 239 2 306 5*333 2*194 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography