DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 12/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 39.0 - - 56.5 - - 63.5 - - 58.8 - - 50.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 111 - - 172 - - -19 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 858 - - 2777 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2125 - - 2127 - - 3622 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 2958 - - 4877 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 78 - - 1475 - - 1515 - - 3317 - - 438 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 188 - - 320 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 32 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 6 - - 6 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 182 - - 163 - - 351 - - 353 - - 331 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 0 - - -4 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2114 - - -4296 - - -5151 - - -7531 - - -3813 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4257 - - 7255 - - 10028 - - 9674 - - 5956 sfcLCL ODpotential -13524 - - -11499 - - -11626 - - -14909 - - -12520 ODpotential blCL 15666 - - 14457 - - 16503 - - 17052 - - 14663 blCL maxRH 58 - - 74 - - 47 - - 35 - - 39 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 39.0 - - 56.5 - - 63.5 - - 58.8 - - 50.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.3 - - 32.5 - - 27.1 - - 24.2 - - 31.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.4 - - 55.5 - - 62.0 - - 60.2 - - 54.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.9 - - 32.0 - - 26.7 - - 23.9 - - 31.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 111 - - 172 - - -19 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 858 - - 2777 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96478 16 328 17 287 15 270 13 294 26 263 96478 89251 12 335 10 290 5 243 13 289 14 303 89251 83699 9 317 6 270 6 293 6 305 12 320 83699 79127 7 313 4 243 11 299 10 337 8 343 79127 75202 6 327 1 310 6 325 13 334 8 348 75202 71741 7 341 1 356 3 327 10 325 10 334 71741 68616 9 317 8 348 8 346 7 338 10 320 68616 65749 3 236 7 328 12 321 10 343 11 320 65749 63100 3 037 4 007 13 334 11 324 15 323 63100 60549 5 017 4 039 9 314 12 343 14 319 60549 57888 17 044 10 029 13 004 13 344 14 307 57888 55110 22 025 19 014 6 335 9 351 18 346 55110 52443 27 019 20 022 26 004 26 354 23 332 52443 50021 31 018 30 006 26 347 22 348 21 328 50021 47819 25 019 21 355 17 352 19 346 24 351 47819 45794 26 020 16 012 18 005 22 347 28 350 45794 43928 27 017 22 019 26 358 20 338 29 352 43928 42201 26 013 24 003 25 348 19 345 27 348 42201 40597 24 012 22 352 22 339 25 354 28 356 40597 39098 21 359 22 355 21 337 28 352 31 358 39098 37692 17 341 24 354 26 340 29 355 33 355 37692 36349 16 330 26 349 26 343 28 357 32 011 36349 35003 17 332 27 343 25 354 33 014 38 043 35003 33612 18 338 28 340 28 005 60 033 46 055 33612 32172 23 315 28 335 31 009 90 037 58 054 32172 30672 30 292 26 325 33 012 104 037 81 042 30672 29111 27 284 24 296 32 011 107 037 89 037 29111 27490 24 286 27 272 29 006 97 041 81 035 27490 25801 23 295 26 277 27 003 80 044 66 033 25801 24044 24 302 25 295 28 001 59 045 54 040 24044 22221 25 311 23 309 27 001 33 029 42 047 22221 20327 23 318 19 308 25 352 28 360 33 035 20327 18356 19 304 19 315 26 340 24 347 31 015 18356 16356 21 309 21 317 23 337 19 350 27 005 16356 14433 18 310 18 311 21 334 18 355 23 358 14433 12682 15 309 16 312 18 337 18 358 21 000 12682 11124 9 311 11 335 13 343 17 003 19 015 11124 9739 7 310 6 009 10 357 13 008 14 032 9739 8507 5 312 5 015 8 010 10 011 9 035 8507 7412 4 302 5 007 7 015 7 014 6 024 7412 6442 3 304 5 010 8 014 7 015 5 024 6442 5587 1 284 4 014 6*004 7 009 5 032 5587 4831 1 228 3 359 5*354 8 001 6 028 4831 4153 3 194 1 326 5 351 9 357 9 021 4153 3553 3 172 1 185 6 350 10 356 10 015 3553 3050 3 161 2*167 6 351 11 355 11 010 3050 2664 3 162 1*169 6 350 11 355 11 007 2664 2397 3 172 1 162 6 351 10 354 9 007 2397 2235 4*173 1 160 6 351 8 354 4 360 2235 2143 4*182 1 157 5 351 6*353 2*331 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography