DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/11 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 85.7 - - 96.6 - - 102.0 - - 103.6 - - 97.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 151 - - 476 - - 500 - - 227 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1961 - - 5924 - - 7254 - - 8147 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2974 - - 6456 - - 7549 - - 7843 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 4061 - - 8024 - - 9354 - - 10247 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1439 - - 1332 - - 2076 - - 4951 - - 10416 Hgt.Variab. W* 272 - - 577 - - 628 - - 502 - - 5 W* B/S 30 - - 13 - - 25 - - 13 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 8 - - 5 - - 7 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 280 - - 345 - - 333 - - 307 - - 279 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 6 - - 5 - - -5 - - -5 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2594 - - -2069 - - -2473 - - -1990 - - -8553 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6655 - - 10093 - - 11828 - - 12237 - - 10700 sfcLCL ODpotential -7365 - - -4697 - - -4071 - - -3149 - - -10259 ODpotential blCL 11426 - - 12721 - - 13425 - - 13396 - - 12405 blCL maxRH 87 - - 85 - - 74 - - 69 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 790 - - 890 - - 970 - - 1190 - - 1100 CAPE Temp@2m 85.7 - - 96.6 - - 102.0 - - 103.6 - - 97.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 63.7 - - 59.4 - - 57.1 - - 56.9 - - 57.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 84.3 - - 93.5 - - 98.9 - - 101.6 - - 98.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.7 - - 59.4 - - 57.0 - - 56.9 - - 57.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 151 - - 476 - - 500 - - 227 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1961 - - 5924 - - 7254 - - 8147 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 48 - - 39 - - 0 - - 0 - - 28 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 11 - - 10 - - 11 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99024 51 091 38 111 31 121 23 102 32 086 99024 91524 41 081 36 093 39 095 35 100 36 097 91524 85798 29 088 31 095 35 104 35 103 32 091 85798 81064 24 107 26 109 26 099 29 102 28 100 81064 76974 26 115 25 113 25 101 28 102 28 109 76974 73349 26 109 23 110 25 115 27 104 25 101 73349 70078 25 107 20 110 22 116 19 110 16 097 70078 67093 25 112 20 127 16 107 14 110 14 097 67093 64352 20 109 21 136 16 124 17 122 14 089 64352 61720 14 094 22 124 23 138 22 126 17 111 61720 58992 9 107 17 115 24 125 24 121 25 119 58992 56199 12 137 14 119 18 109 20 106 28 111 56199 53562 14 118 16 119 16 126 16 109 29 104 53562 51184 18 113 24 111 22 125 19 115 32 105 51184 49034 26 113 31 109 29 117 26 118 35 107 49034 47065 32 112 35 111 35 114 32 119 35 111 47065 45244 38 115 38 115 40 113 38 120 35 120 45244 43544 26 099 33 110 37 113 43 118 34 127 43544 41949 19 077 27 096 32 110 35 115 31 124 41949 40447 11 041 25 099 29 112 26 120 26 113 40447 39030 5 291 22 092 22 112 21 119 20 111 39030 37662 6 272 9 004 17 071 19 098 17 108 37662 36278 2 106 4 021 13 049 22 084 18 104 36278 34845 11 091 16 098 15 092 18 093 22 102 34845 33365 9 082 19 098 19 104 21 100 23 100 33365 31827 8 095 19 090 20 098 23 100 25 104 31827 30216 7 074 16 084 19 102 19 113 23 110 30216 28536 10 056 13 083 16 105 16 134 17 114 28536 26787 15 086 13 123 12 121 13 141 14 128 26787 24971 15 106 15 112 13 103 17 115 17 123 24971 23093 17 132 12 094 16 086 23 099 22 105 23093 21151 29 125 13 116 13 099 23 090 26 091 21151 19137 32 118 25 137 20 133 20 091 30 098 19137 17088 25 112 25 128 20 133 21 105 31 104 17088 15110 21 106 18 110 17 126 20 119 24 103 15110 13305 19 093 14 118 17 124 17 126 9 078 13305 11694 16 067 15 118 14 126 8 141 10 355 11694 10254 15 054 14 098 7*126 3*256 10 348 10254 8964 13 030 8*057 2*340 5*289 12 335 8964 7810 10 359 7*351 3 330 6 297 13 322 7810 6781 9 308 7 347 4 329 7 301 14 310 6781 5868 11 281 8 345 5 330 7 306 15 302 5868 5057 11 270 8 344 5 331 8 309 16 295 5057 4326 6*264 8 344 6 332 8 312 17 291 4326 3677 2*267 8 343 6 335 8 314 17 288 3677 3132 2 278 8 343 6 336 8 315 17 285 3132 2713 2 281 8 343 6 337 8 316 16 283 2713 2423 1 290 8 344 6 337 8 317 14 282 2423 2247 1 295 8 343 6 336 8 318 12*280 2247 2146 1 293 7 343 6 338 7 318 8*279 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography