DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/28 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 59.5 - - 65.2 - - 65.1 - - 56.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 188 - - -14 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1247 - - 3061 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2431 - - 3866 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3347 - - 5161 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2166 - - 1973 - - 5782 - - 359 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 233 - - 340 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 18 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 8 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 041 - - 038 - - 344 - - 323 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 4 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2983 - - -2967 - - -8169 - - -7278 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6330 - - 8129 - - 10314 - - 9421 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7218 - - -8726 - - -14879 - - -15862 ODpotential blCL - - - 10565 - - 13887 - - 17023 - - 18005 blCL maxRH - - - 73 - - 85 - - 73 - - 96 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 59.5 - - 65.2 - - 65.1 - - 56.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.4 - - 37.1 - - 27.5 - - 22.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 58.2 - - 63.7 - - 66.1 - - 58.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 39.3 - - 36.9 - - 27.3 - - 22.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 188 - - -14 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1247 - - 3061 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 41 - - 0 - - 84 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96300 15 267 21 281 25 304 18 313 96300 89209 10 289 20 298 22 311 15 334 89209 83749 16 308 13 324 14 327 21 333 83749 79220 23 307 14 322 16 341 21 327 79220 75309 20 322 12 306 14 330 18 320 75309 71846 12 318 15 307 17 316 21 314 71846 68693 12 284 17 276 15 293 16 296 68693 65764 24 293 15 260 17 270 14 296 65764 63030 28 273 25 282 24 273 20 280 63030 60379 35 257 39 262 36 267 25 272 60379 57624 44 249 45 250 47 254 37 265 57624 54784 54 249 53 263 52 258 45 259 54784 52081 70 249 76 260 58 265 49 266 52081 49628 88 238 88 246 77 255 69 262 49628 47424 80 230 94 233 91 239 83 238 47424 45450 59 232 79 221 74 231 75 224 45450 43661 50 265 50 236 53 221 61 253 43661 42027 83 278 81 275 88 264 101 256 42027 40521 115 268 110 269 96 261 93 251 40521 39098 106 263 103 262 88 257 90 251 39098 37748 87 262 82 257 81 255 85 250 37748 36440 82 262 73 250 76 249 76 244 36440 35109 79 259 72 242 72 241 74 241 35109 33725 71 249 71 239 71 239 72 241 33725 32292 71 244 69 241 70 240 73 242 32292 30795 73 243 71 248 69 242 74 246 30795 29224 73 247 79 266 73 256 76 258 29224 27581 69 262 66 267 75 267 78 268 27581 25867 71 278 56 254 62 267 65 275 25867 24092 60 278 57 244 50 253 44 263 24092 22252 47 260 48 238 52 240 44 237 22252 20347 46 238 46 236 50 236 45 233 20347 18377 48 234 45 242 41 240 36 242 18377 16379 46 238 39 250 33 254 28 253 16379 14454 40 249 28 257 22 257 20 249 14454 12704 28 264 19 254 15 245 15 234 12704 11150 15 272 10 235 13 208 14 216 11150 9771 5 282 4 180 14 180 18 195 9771 8544 3 047 4 097 13 153 18 171 8544 7452 6 070 9 094 10 115 13 135 7452 6481 8 079 11 084 9 096 11 095 6481 5621 9 072 11*070 7 074 11 078 5621 4859 9 068 10*061 6 047 12 069 4859 4173 8 071 9 047 6 020 12 056 4173 3565 5*072 8 036 7 004 14 035 3565 3058 3*049 8 031 8 356 15 015 3058 2667 2 043 8 027 9 351 15 003 2667 2399 2 036 7 024 8 347 12 355 2399 2236 2 033 7 024 7*345 7 340 2236 2143 2 035 7 022 6*344 4*323 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography