DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.2 - - 60.2 - - 67.3 - - 62.9 - - 53.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 110 - - 156 - - -7 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 815 - - 2441 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 3336 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 2915 - - 4541 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 68 - - 1105 - - 1250 - - 2711 - - 346 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 184 - - 297 - - 6 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 27 - - 16 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 184 - - 183 - - 324 - - 335 - - 131 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2147 - - -5840 - - -6619 - - -8433 - - -6030 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4290 - - 8755 - - 11161 - - 10577 - - 8173 sfcLCL ODpotential -15822 - - -15158 - - -14899 - - -17633 - - -16391 ODpotential blCL 17964 - - 18073 - - 19440 - - 19777 - - 18534 blCL maxRH 46 - - 34 - - 41 - - 42 - - 30 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.2 - - 60.2 - - 67.3 - - 62.9 - - 53.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.5 - - 29.8 - - 26.0 - - 24.5 - - 25.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.9 - - 59.3 - - 66.0 - - 65.2 - - 58.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.2 - - 29.3 - - 25.7 - - 24.1 - - 25.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 110 - - 156 - - -7 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 815 - - 2441 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96252 4 262 11 311 6 229 14 298 11 258 96252 89095 8 318 7 298 7 309 14 272 19 298 89095 83578 14 300 5 287 8 279 11 268 18 309 83578 78980 14 288 7 321 9 277 7 282 12 309 78980 74999 13 291 10 308 15 282 13 298 16 306 74999 71503 12 299 13 279 21 285 22 308 21 301 71503 68394 19 284 23 264 25 285 27 307 22 306 68394 65572 18 270 27 273 31 293 31 308 27 318 65572 62966 20 281 31 270 35 289 36 295 34 309 62966 60443 21 274 26 271 36 274 39 282 39 289 60443 57806 26 311 26 313 29 293 32 295 36 283 57806 55065 30 315 31 321 30 299 34 298 38 286 55065 52430 25 309 29 313 29 284 34 285 38 280 52430 50022 26 316 25 302 30 296 32 291 37 297 50022 47834 26 322 25 307 39 315 42 311 44 309 47834 45832 29 332 37 322 42 319 50 314 47 317 45832 43990 38 334 40 322 33 318 45 312 50 319 43990 42290 28 322 29 315 26 331 39 313 48 315 42290 40710 8 325 20 306 28 339 31 318 44 321 40710 39239 10 332 19 346 30 344 26 330 27 304 39239 37866 22 341 31 351 33 349 27 339 17 274 37866 36543 39 356 35 348 36 352 26 345 10 324 36543 35203 47 355 35 348 36 352 26 350 18 345 35203 33816 49 358 34 351 35 352 28 349 26 347 33816 32384 47 000 33 355 30 351 29 343 33 348 32384 30893 44 001 34 358 27 350 30 338 38 347 30893 29332 43 003 36 357 27 348 31 335 40 342 29332 27702 42 005 36 354 30 341 32 337 41 337 27702 26003 37 010 35 354 32 337 33 342 46 335 26003 24232 29 009 30 353 32 337 36 348 46 339 24232 22393 24 346 25 343 32 335 39 351 43 348 22393 20486 27 339 28 338 33 330 39 351 40 353 20486 18507 27 347 32 341 35 334 38 350 34 342 18507 16491 25 356 31 347 31 339 35 350 33 339 16491 14550 24 357 26 348 24 340 28 352 31 345 14550 12785 25 360 22 346 21 336 21 346 28 349 12785 11214 21 005 18 353 19 336 19 341 22 343 11214 9817 14 360 10 352 15 340 16 341 19 337 9817 8572 10 355 6 323 10 321 12 339 18 337 8572 7467 5 003 5 297 10 312 8 325 13 332 7467 6486 2 051 4 286 8 306 8 315 10 310 6486 5621 2 113 4 284 5 298 7 311 9 306 5621 4856 2 133 4 279 3*308 4 296 8 303 4856 4171 3 131 3 263 3*315 3 298 8 299 4171 3564 4 129 2 210 3 320 4 315 7 304 3564 3057 4 131 2*184 3 324 5 324 5 328 3057 2667 4 141 2*185 4 328 5 330 5 003 2667 2399 4 154 1 181 3 330 5 331 5 023 2399 2236 4 170 1 181 4 332 5*334 2 051 2236 2143 4*184 1 181 3 334 4*335 1*131 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography