DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - - - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.2 - - 59.3 - - 66.0 - - - - - 56.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 80 - - 133 - - - - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1156 - - 3496 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 4010 - - - - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3256 - - 5596 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 222 - - 2454 - - 3326 - - - - - 574 Hgt.Variab. W* 16 - - 192 - - 319 - - - - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 45 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 9 - - 1 - - - - - 2 BL Wind Direction 163 - - 151 - - 125 - - - - - 330 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -1 - - - - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -923 - - -2440 - - -3339 - - - - - -2038 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3066 - - 5696 - - 8935 - - - - - 4182 sfcLCL ODpotential -6554 - - -6446 - - -6154 - - - - - -5286 ODpotential blCL 8697 - - 9702 - - 11750 - - - - - 7430 blCL maxRH 66 - - 86 - - 81 - - - - - 90 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.2 - - 59.3 - - 66.0 - - - - - 56.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.3 - - 41.9 - - 34.2 - - - - - 45.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 58.6 - - 64.8 - - - - - 57.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.2 - - 40.7 - - 33.8 - - - - - 45.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 80 - - 133 - - - - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1156 - - 3496 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 45 - - 24 - - - - - 59 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - - - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96445 14 301 19 252 35 297 18 265 96445 89351 12 314 3 117 11 233 9 326 89351 83865 5 284 4 050 9 146 13 353 83865 79280 5 159 4 061 7 120 9 299 79280 75338 3 137 5 146 5 147 6 285 75338 71877 2 263 2 196 8 153 7 256 71877 68755 6 247 5 285 5 170 3 278 68755 65867 16 200 14 237 10 241 14 214 65867 63165 23 198 22 224 17 246 15 238 63165 60535 30 225 33 226 34 237 23 260 60535 57779 41 222 44 228 45 230 39 241 57779 54902 44 220 49 227 48 233 43 237 54902 52145 52 226 57 237 57 241 54 238 52145 49658 56 231 66 236 66 240 61 235 49658 47430 59 239 70 234 70 244 62 236 47430 45415 75 244 75 237 80 246 63 242 45415 43574 91 244 83 240 81 242 71 250 43574 41880 100 242 81 239 72 244 86 249 41880 40313 99 236 78 248 81 254 90 243 40313 38853 86 234 89 251 96 252 86 242 38853 37481 89 246 96 248 99 246 88 243 37481 36162 92 244 96 245 91 245 88 240 36162 34831 83 236 88 247 84 251 87 239 34831 33457 78 264 84 252 90 254 84 239 33457 32039 80 266 80 258 90 253 82 238 32039 30562 76 258 78 258 81 249 80 238 30562 29014 74 253 77 255 70 247 79 239 29014 27395 72 250 74 250 68 248 76 241 27395 25706 65 249 71 246 66 250 68 243 25706 23952 58 246 68 243 66 250 57 241 23952 22132 55 244 63 240 67 245 53 236 22132 20240 49 247 58 237 61 240 53 231 20240 18277 43 243 52 231 52 235 52 229 18277 16285 41 239 43 224 44 228 42 227 16285 14374 35 239 33 225 37 218 34 214 14374 12642 27 239 24 225 29 205 31 199 12642 11104 20 230 20 219 23 197 29 182 11104 9739 18 216 18 210 21 194 24 165 9739 8524 18 210 15 199 18 191 18 167 8524 7438 16 205 14 188 15 190 13 177 7438 6472 14 202 13 186 10 189 9 177 6472 5615 13 195 13 187 7*186 6 157 5615 4854 12 183 14 184 4*176 4 122 4854 4171 13 168 13 177 2 148 4 070 4171 3565 12 156 12*167 1 124 7 044 3565 3058 16 142 10*153 1 093 10 038 3058 2668 18 141 9 150 1 078 11 026 2668 2399 16 143 9 150 1 067 9 019 2399 2237 10*150 8 149 2 068 4*009 2237 2144 5*163 7 149 2 062 2*330 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography