DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/09 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 103.1 - - 107.7 - - - - - 100.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 500 - - - - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6844 - - 11917 - - - - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 7160 - - 11368 - - - - - 2130 Hcrit BL Top - - - 8944 - - 14017 - - - - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4535 - - 2686 - - - - - 10810 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 589 - - 741 - - - - - 7 W* B/S - - - 27 - - 18 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 8 - - - - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - 278 - - 298 - - - - - 293 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 5 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - 7 - - - - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3836 - - 279 - - - - - -11407 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12781 - - 13739 - - - - - 13554 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4853 - - -207 - - - - - -14668 ODpotential blCL - - - 13797 - - 14224 - - - - - 16814 blCL maxRH - - - 80 - - 72 - - - - - 62 maxRH CAPE - - - 650 - - 1010 - - - - - 270 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 103.1 - - 107.7 - - - - - 100.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 54.1 - - 54.2 - - - - - 48.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 100.2 - - 104.5 - - - - - 101.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 54.1 - - 54.1 - - - - - 48.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 500 - - - - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6844 - - 11917 - - - - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 20 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 9 - - - - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99160 43 125 35 109 31 091 99160 91576 36 108 34 115 32 093 91576 85731 28 109 30 114 32 088 85731 80919 28 102 31 110 28 092 80919 76815 24 111 27 101 26 107 76815 73219 29 121 25 109 25 109 73219 69981 32 103 23 115 19 106 69981 67018 31 081 19 113 19 103 67018 64280 18 082 12 109 16 088 64280 61648 7 109 7 130 13 065 61648 58953 5 153 8 171 5 034 58953 56207 7 109 5 154 6 195 56207 53600 7 115 4 186 7 178 53600 51238 7 114 9 168 6 189 51238 49092 8 112 3 154 3 187 49092 47116 4 051 1 337 3 357 47116 45282 6 353 2 345 5 008 45282 43567 4 336 1 174 6 012 43567 41953 5 330 2 316 7 359 41953 40432 8 324 6 320 6 341 40432 38999 6 342 4 346 4 337 38999 37619 5 359 6 007 4 334 37619 36221 8 355 11 344 8 319 36221 34775 9 346 13 329 10 314 34775 33287 8 325 12 316 8 320 33287 31745 8 294 11 314 6 339 31745 30140 9 271 9 347 4 355 30140 28474 6 317 11 008 5 005 28474 26744 8 008 14 017 10 054 26744 24952 16 028 19 025 20 039 24952 23097 25 028 21 029 24 032 23097 21170 28 025 20 029 22 036 21170 19163 21 027 15 043 19 051 19163 17113 10 032 10 085 16 078 17113 15132 5 025 3*125 11 102 15132 13326 5 006 4*286 7 043 13326 11713 4 001 6 292 9 002 11713 10270 6 324 6 293 12 338 10270 8978 5*306 7 294 14 328 8978 7822 4*284 8 296 16 320 7822 6791 4 279 8 298 18 313 6791 5877 4 276 9 300 19 308 5877 5063 4 276 9 300 21 303 5063 4331 4 276 10 302 21 300 4331 3680 4 276 10 302 22 297 3680 3135 4 277 10 303 22 296 3135 2714 3 279 10 304 20 294 2714 2424 3 278 9 304 17 294 2424 2247 3 280 9 304 14 293 2247 2146 3 279 8 305 9*293 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography