DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/19 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1001z - - 1335z - - 1601z - - 1902z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 81.0 - - 92.2 - - 96.5 - - 94.7 - - 83.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 115 - - 452 - - 487 - - 182 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 832 - - 8741 - - 9937 - - 9519 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 8709 - - 9726 - - 8764 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2932 - - 10841 - - 12037 - - 11619 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2408 - - 1408 - - 1550 - - 1674 - - 4482 Hgt.Variab. W* 187 - - 646 - - 692 - - 492 - - 6 W* B/S 5 - - 25 - - 17 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 12 - - 12 BL Wind Direction 176 - - 222 - - 250 - - 249 - - 255 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 9 - - -3 - - -6 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9222 - - -5036 - - -6854 - - -7822 - - -10973 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12155 - - 15878 - - 18892 - - 19442 - - 13119 sfcLCL ODpotential -14666 - - -8756 - - -10366 - - -12886 - - -16885 ODpotential blCL 17598 - - 19597 - - 22403 - - 24505 - - 19030 blCL maxRH 31 - - 33 - - 29 - - 20 - - 21 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 81.0 - - 92.2 - - 96.5 - - 94.7 - - 83.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.3 - - 28.9 - - 18.9 - - 14.8 - - 32.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 79.9 - - 89.3 - - 93.5 - - 93.2 - - 84.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.2 - - 28.9 - - 18.8 - - 14.8 - - 32.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 115 - - 452 - - 487 - - 182 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 832 - - 8741 - - 9937 - - 9519 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97905 6 022 6 141 4 223 4 119 5 005 97905 90404 9 131 2 205 6 189 1 123 4 094 90404 84654 4 052 3 202 6 218 3 331 4 115 84654 79919 8 358 3 213 6 265 4 299 8 085 79919 75855 8 354 5 218 8 301 6 297 8 033 75855 72264 7 354 4 249 7 268 8 279 11 336 72264 69032 8 331 9 312 8 260 8 266 14 294 69032 66087 14 294 17 307 13 273 12 280 18 284 66087 63375 22 285 23 298 25 290 24 285 24 285 63375 60752 28 288 30 283 30 279 25 275 27 292 60752 58010 32 290 30 284 28 287 32 291 36 294 58010 55159 36 291 33 292 38 292 44 293 43 295 55159 52442 36 288 36 294 44 291 50 293 48 298 52442 50013 28 284 36 298 38 292 47 293 47 297 50013 47849 27 293 35 297 24 301 35 291 35 300 47849 45905 14 319 22 290 23 333 27 321 25 312 45905 44137 20 031 22 358 29 344 31 337 17 324 44137 42500 35 031 28 032 26 352 29 352 17 353 42500 40971 39 028 35 035 31 025 32 010 25 010 40971 39530 36 036 41 034 37 034 33 018 29 014 39530 38166 37 048 42 039 38 038 29 018 27 012 38166 36842 42 051 41 042 36 039 27 017 23 010 36842 35495 41 051 36 047 32 040 26 018 21 003 35495 34100 40 052 33 051 30 041 25 018 21 360 34100 32661 36 051 32 060 29 041 24 017 22 001 32661 31165 33 048 30 059 30 036 22 019 23 358 31165 29598 24 049 24 057 30 036 20 016 22 356 29598 27960 12 051 12 052 26 044 19 022 21 357 27960 26249 11 052 8 061 17 040 18 026 21 001 26249 24468 9 042 9 045 8 048 19 017 20 359 24468 22623 2 115 5 011 7 036 16 001 18 355 22623 20709 9 154 1 155 4 014 9 356 15 356 20709 18723 12 136 5 145 3 083 3 356 9 313 18723 16702 9 116 4 123 2 039 6 006 12 290 16702 14751 6 114 4 106 1 211 2 007 9 305 14751 12976 5 167 4 131 5*222 7*211 5 245 12976 11402 9 190 5*186 6*232 9*226 8 189 11402 10003 8 188 5*201 6 234 9 229 7 197 10003 8751 4 143 5 205 6 238 11 243 7 229 8751 7632 5 098 5 213 7 245 12 246 10 251 7632 6634 5 084 5 219 7 250 13 251 13 259 6634 5748 2 105 5 225 8 253 13 254 17 260 5748 4962 5 182 5 229 8 256 14 255 22 259 4962 4254 7 184 5 234 8 258 14 257 26 258 4254 3626 8 181 4 238 8 260 14 258 27 257 3626 3099 8*182 4 243 9 261 14 259 27 257 3099 2693 7*178 4 243 9 262 14 259 24 257 2693 2413 6 176 4 246 8 262 13 259 21 256 2413 2243 6 176 4 245 8 263 13 259 18*256 2243 2145 5 174 4 247 8 263 11 259 12*255 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography