DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/04 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 72.1 - - 86.4 - - 92.3 - - 90.8 - - 80.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -44 - - 253 - - 258 - - 3 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3636 - - 6833 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 4434 - - 6904 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 5736 - - 8933 - - 2146 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1128 - - 1914 - - 2316 - - 9496 - - 764 Hgt.Variab. W* 33 - - 402 - - 498 - - 28 - - 14 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 11 - - 26 - - 18 - - 11 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 137 - - 131 - - 129 - - 110 - - 114 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 2 - - 5 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2653 - - -4240 - - -3353 - - -10466 - - -7871 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4798 - - 9976 - - 12287 - - 12613 - - 10016 sfcLCL ODpotential -8693 - - -10004 - - -8840 - - -16027 - - -15394 ODpotential blCL 10838 - - 15740 - - 17773 - - 18173 - - 17539 blCL maxRH 50 - - 40 - - 45 - - 43 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 72.1 - - 86.4 - - 92.3 - - 90.8 - - 80.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.4 - - 50.1 - - 45.6 - - 42.8 - - 44.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.7 - - 84.8 - - 90.5 - - 90.9 - - 82.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 57.2 - - 49.5 - - 45.0 - - 42.3 - - 44.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -44 - - 253 - - 258 - - 3 - - -42 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 3636 - - 6833 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 8 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97951 17 254 19 243 11 270 10 292 4 271 97951 90626 6 159 11 202 11 221 14 269 11 333 90626 84984 8 085 7 116 13 157 7 202 4 307 84984 80284 6 010 8 058 10 103 10 119 4 115 80284 76244 8 014 12 055 11 070 13 087 8 087 76244 72699 12 034 11 054 9 059 12 063 12 058 72699 69525 9 047 10 058 12 053 15 060 10 065 69525 66643 9 055 9 074 7 053 18 054 11 077 66643 63986 7 075 11 081 2 136 9 030 11 049 63986 61417 8 089 7 082 4 187 6 312 10 348 61417 58761 6 034 5 054 4 172 8 233 12 270 58761 56036 18 278 18 305 13 315 6 304 11 286 56036 53448 28 272 30 292 24 293 22 294 18 296 53448 51110 32 282 34 298 28 302 27 292 23 292 51110 48985 42 289 40 303 32 300 29 292 26 289 48985 47027 43 286 37 302 36 298 33 292 28 285 47027 45207 41 285 37 302 37 297 37 295 33 284 45207 43503 40 286 35 298 35 293 41 295 35 286 43503 41899 39 286 34 293 34 292 42 294 35 291 41899 40383 34 282 34 292 33 293 40 291 34 292 40383 38952 28 275 31 288 32 294 35 286 33 291 38952 37570 26 281 25 277 28 290 28 285 29 287 37570 36172 24 292 21 281 25 277 23 276 25 280 36172 34726 16 296 15 285 21 276 26 265 25 270 34726 33236 13 303 12 289 17 271 21 267 25 270 33236 31686 10 288 12 293 14 276 19 260 21 264 31686 30064 6 256 9 274 11 279 15 263 15 270 30064 28381 5 101 6 106 6 103 5 164 7 221 28381 26637 10 102 8 101 8 109 6 120 6 193 26637 24823 11 115 11 131 14 149 12 155 10 152 24823 22944 14 120 21 135 19 139 16 135 15 127 22944 20994 17 109 23 119 21 118 18 118 17 115 20994 18964 22 099 25 100 24 106 22 110 22 116 18964 16898 22 097 26 097 26 105 24 109 24 114 16898 14914 19 105 23 102 23 106 20 111 21 110 14914 13118 16 111 17 107 16 108 13 116 13 105 13118 11521 16 124 12 110 10 120 10 142 5 106 11521 10097 16 136 11 126 11*140 12 143 2 142 10097 8823 15 146 13 144 15*137 16 133 4 157 8823 7686 17 154 18 147 19 131 17 128 8 149 7686 6673 20 154 25 139 19 131 18 124 17 142 6673 5777 27 147 27*132 19 129 18 121 26 136 5777 4982 35 141 27*132 19 129 18 118 32 132 4982 4268 41 137 27 131 19 128 18 116 35 128 4268 3634 41 135 27 131 19 127 17 115 35 122 3634 3103 35 134 27 131 18 126 17 113 34 118 3103 2695 29 135 26 131 17 126 16 112 29 116 2695 2414 22 136 24 131 17 126 15 111 22 115 2414 2243 19*137 22 131 16 126 14*110 17*114 2243 2145 11*137 18 131 14 125 11*110 9*114 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography