DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 01/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 70.2 - - 78.1 - - 74.3 - - 60.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 127 - - 168 - - -15 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1142 - - 4029 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2127 - - 4523 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3242 - - 6129 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1138 - - 1883 - - 5233 - - 218 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 215 - - 360 - - 10 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 37 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 14 - - 2 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 147 - - 190 - - 317 - - 327 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -9711 - - -9724 - - -12913 - - -8937 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12953 - - 15854 - - 15057 - - 11082 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18043 - - -16396 - - -20194 - - -18939 ODpotential blCL - - - 21285 - - 22525 - - 22338 - - 21083 blCL maxRH - - - 27 - - 59 - - 16 - - 16 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 70.2 - - 78.1 - - 74.3 - - 60.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 21.3 - - 15.7 - - 15.8 - - 20.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 69.2 - - 76.7 - - 75.5 - - 66.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 20.9 - - 15.3 - - 15.3 - - 20.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 127 - - 168 - - -15 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1142 - - 4029 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96211 16 068 16 111 7 070 19 040 96211 89146 22 081 24 081 27 088 25 088 89146 83691 22 087 24 075 26 079 27 091 83691 79182 24 099 20 088 22 071 22 077 79182 75293 25 105 19 102 16 076 17 083 75293 71834 25 101 18 115 9 081 6 087 71834 68691 18 088 17 121 7 144 4 298 68691 65801 15 047 11 090 8 169 9 308 65801 63116 11 360 10 028 6 170 11 297 63116 60510 15 306 22 339 7 007 9 302 60510 57799 19 275 27 311 16 331 9 305 57799 54998 10 262 24 286 26 308 18 322 54998 52321 1 069 19 259 26 277 28 307 52321 49892 9 094 13 223 23 249 26 289 49892 47702 12 083 9 147 16 189 18 249 47702 45707 15 066 16 087 12 133 10 195 45707 43872 6 211 6 065 3 046 3 055 43872 42174 22 194 13 230 16 257 14 312 42174 40601 28 178 22 200 21 234 19 284 40601 39142 20 157 24 177 17 209 14 261 39142 37782 15 145 16 161 20 188 9 232 37782 36480 14 148 13 161 20 184 9 201 36480 35162 14 147 12 163 12 178 10 182 35162 33797 13 140 9 159 6 174 4 121 33797 32385 11 142 6 165 4 193 3 099 32385 30912 8 150 4 176 3 196 3 192 30912 29368 6 160 3 157 3 150 5 212 29368 27753 7 113 5 106 5 083 5 195 27753 26065 11 085 8 077 9 063 4 150 26065 24305 14 077 10 074 6 097 5 150 24305 22475 13 093 7 118 6 170 8 185 22475 20568 10 123 6 169 6 208 10 222 20568 18584 8 129 4 204 6 284 9 297 18584 16562 4 115 5 257 13 344 11 352 16562 14615 5 266 10 309 13 354 8 008 14615 12843 5 313 7 352 8 011 6 004 12843 11269 4 002 3 021 4 347 6 343 11269 9868 2 061 2 208 4 312 6 344 9868 8623 2 137 3 222 4 318 4 351 8623 7516 3 141 3 194 4 288 3 325 7516 6533 4 141 3*189 4 287 5 303 6533 5664 7 151 3*188 5 298 6 292 5664 4893 12 152 2 187 5 304 6 293 4893 4200 17 145 2 189 6 308 6 311 4200 3586 18*143 2 193 6 311 7 334 3586 3072 17*145 1 190 7 314 9 346 3072 2676 15 147 1 197 7 315 10 351 2676 2403 14 148 1 198 7 316 9 353 2403 2238 13 148 1 194 6 317 4*348 2238 2144 10 148 1 194 4*317 2*327 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography