DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 07/11 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 99.8 - - 104.2 - - 104.0 - - 96.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 467 - - 514 - - 233 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7000 - - 9457 - - 9627 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 7315 - - 9360 - - 9031 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 9100 - - 11557 - - 11727 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2369 - - 2253 - - 2261 - - 6773 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 607 - - 693 - - 536 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 10 - - 8 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 16 - - 16 - - 12 BL Wind Direction - - - 269 - - 271 - - 270 - - 260 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 10 - - -5 - - -6 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2088 - - -1115 - - -1205 - - -8121 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11189 - - 12672 - - 12933 - - 10267 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4752 - - -2802 - - -3951 - - -11126 ODpotential blCL - - - 13852 - - 14359 - - 15678 - - 13272 blCL maxRH - - - 53 - - 52 - - 49 - - 41 maxRH CAPE - - - 910 - - 1070 - - 840 - - 1020 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 99.8 - - 104.2 - - 104.0 - - 96.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 57.8 - - 55.5 - - 54.3 - - 58.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 96.9 - - 101.1 - - 102.1 - - 96.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 57.8 - - 55.4 - - 54.2 - - 58.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 467 - - 514 - - 233 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7000 - - 9457 - - 9627 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98734 43 103 34 119 30 109 30 083 98734 91277 37 101 34 108 28 112 26 097 91277 85536 30 113 35 098 31 105 25 106 85536 80761 23 118 31 101 32 098 27 103 80761 76668 19 111 22 090 27 092 26 088 76668 73077 22 114 16 110 23 086 23 086 73077 69837 22 104 18 117 17 089 26 093 69837 66872 20 083 15 096 17 099 19 097 66872 64135 11 108 11 109 12 070 17 095 64135 61494 14 117 8 106 8 065 14 068 61494 58768 6 109 6 093 6 069 9 042 58768 55980 7 082 6 094 7 081 5 046 55980 53345 14 061 10 081 9 071 6 035 53345 50984 18 037 12 066 9 064 11 016 50984 48859 23 353 18 013 14 015 16 003 48859 46913 25 340 30 343 24 354 25 351 46913 45114 26 338 33 338 30 350 29 343 45114 43435 26 341 32 339 31 347 33 341 43435 41859 25 339 29 340 30 344 35 340 41859 40374 25 339 27 340 29 340 35 339 40374 38972 25 342 26 342 27 337 33 341 38972 37616 24 348 23 348 23 342 27 341 37616 36240 23 352 22 350 23 349 23 343 36240 34814 23 349 23 347 22 344 23 345 34814 33344 23 344 22 344 22 339 22 343 33344 31815 21 347 19 344 21 344 21 345 31815 30212 18 358 15 349 20 352 20 351 30212 28536 14 001 9 352 12 341 16 351 28536 26788 14 350 10 344 12 334 13 333 26788 24975 14 346 12 341 14 344 15 334 24975 23103 12 344 8 336 14 333 16 339 23103 21162 8 338 5 339 11 336 16 347 21162 19143 10 326 10 331 12 340 17 349 19143 17086 15 304 14 312 16 328 15 335 17086 15102 19 302 18 305 17 314 14 319 15102 13293 20 298 20 295 16*303 11 309 13293 11680 17 279 15*275 14*282 8 303 11680 10240 14*269 15*271 15 271 7 287 10240 8951 13*266 15 270 15 270 9 267 8951 7798 12 264 15 270 16 269 12 257 7798 6770 12 265 16 270 16 268 15 255 6770 5858 11 267 16 270 17 268 18 255 5858 5049 11 269 16 271 17 268 20 256 5049 4320 11 271 16 271 17 268 22 258 4320 3673 11 273 16 271 17 268 22 258 3673 3130 10 275 16 272 17 268 22 259 3130 2711 10 276 15 272 17 268 21 260 2711 2423 10 277 15 272 16 268 19 260 2423 2247 9 277 14 272 15 268 16*260 2247 2146 9 278 13 273 13 268 12*260 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography