DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/25 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.1 - - 73.8 - - 77.5 - - 74.7 - - 65.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 10 - - 253 - - 265 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 5518 - - 6624 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 5860 - - 6744 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 7618 - - 8724 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 348 - - 1686 - - 1606 - - 6545 - - 445 Hgt.Variab. W* 31 - - 458 - - 494 - - 23 - - 0 W* B/S 3 - - 44 - - 21 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 2 - - 4 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 202 - - 090 - - 326 - - 355 - - 337 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -2 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3744 - - -1127 - - -1176 - - -7931 - - -5900 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5887 - - 8745 - - 9901 - - 10076 - - 8045 sfcLCL ODpotential -6583 - - -3551 - - -3954 - - -13060 - - -13765 ODpotential blCL 8726 - - 11169 - - 12678 - - 15204 - - 15909 blCL maxRH 85 - - 72 - - 62 - - 45 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.1 - - 73.8 - - 77.5 - - 74.7 - - 65.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 43.1 - - 42.8 - - 41.3 - - 38.0 - - 38.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.9 - - 71.9 - - 75.5 - - 74.6 - - 68.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.0 - - 42.6 - - 41.0 - - 37.7 - - 37.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 10 - - 253 - - 265 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 5518 - - 6624 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 41 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97522 19 242 26 255 31 259 34 277 25 284 97522 90145 18 238 16 260 20 244 21 261 19 281 90145 84513 9 250 9 260 14 241 11 244 18 267 84513 79856 7 271 6 261 8 234 5 195 14 248 79856 75867 11 275 6 256 6 283 4 197 9 242 75867 72341 8 310 3 232 8 280 3 251 4 253 72341 69146 10 340 2 189 4 272 1 052 1 114 69146 66216 6 300 5 219 5 251 3 306 3 331 66216 63501 6 262 3 188 2 128 4 236 3 289 63501 60865 16 231 15 229 16 238 17 233 15 251 60865 58111 15 233 19 211 16 209 17 206 18 230 58111 55245 22 254 10 214 14 228 20 235 28 242 55245 52493 35 237 28 229 31 229 30 221 31 228 52493 50002 39 224 36 226 31 235 26 219 29 212 50002 47764 36 221 33 229 33 240 32 240 29 234 47764 45738 29 233 29 234 36 239 38 242 31 245 45738 43900 29 252 30 244 38 244 42 246 46 252 43900 42218 37 260 35 251 42 252 47 245 55 244 42218 40661 45 255 39 252 46 251 48 243 48 238 40661 39210 45 253 39 256 46 248 46 248 42 239 39210 37848 46 255 42 257 38 251 45 252 38 242 37848 36537 48 258 42 257 35 260 41 251 36 248 36537 35209 47 257 42 258 39 262 35 253 32 249 35209 33834 45 264 42 262 42 260 33 259 25 255 33834 32414 50 269 43 265 41 259 33 263 22 262 32414 30935 55 266 46 265 38 263 32 266 21 274 30935 29387 56 264 46 266 37 264 29 269 19 280 29387 27769 57 266 46 269 36 263 28 271 18 281 27769 26081 61 266 46 273 33 266 26 267 16 278 26081 24324 61 271 47 279 32 270 23 265 14 268 24324 22500 52 272 47 281 33 277 20 270 14 255 22500 20601 39 267 43 280 33 278 22 278 13 267 20601 18620 36 257 36 273 31 278 22 286 12 280 18620 16596 36 250 29 266 25 276 18 284 10 278 16596 14644 30 254 21 270 18 269 13 278 10 271 14644 12868 22 270 15 274 10 249 9 254 9 251 12868 11292 14 267 7 275 8 228 7 226 9 235 11292 9893 8 246 6 239 5*227 6 203 8 218 9893 8649 3 199 7*199 3*295 2 138 7 175 8649 7541 1 138 3*119 3 307 3 031 7 127 7541 6555 2 078 3 103 4 318 6 012 7 079 6555 5682 4 071 2 095 4 325 7 002 8 038 5682 4908 5 072 2 089 5 329 9 358 11 019 4908 4213 4 086 2 080 5 332 9 356 13 010 4213 3595 4 127 2 075 6 334 9 356 14 004 3595 3078 6 149 1 066 6 335 9 355 15 000 3078 2680 5 162 1 057 6 337 9 355 14 357 2680 2406 5 182 1 051 6 337 9 355 11 356 2406 2239 3 185 1 048 6 338 8 355 6 351 2239 2144 2*202 1 050 5 337 7*355 3*337 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography