DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 07/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 86.0 - - 92.5 - - - - - 81.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 363 - - - - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2917 - - 5621 - - - - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3743 - - 6114 - - - - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5017 - - 7721 - - - - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2583 - - 2103 - - - - - 1468 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 330 - - 522 - - - - - 22 W* B/S - - - 11 - - 24 - - - - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 4 - - - - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 297 - - 297 - - - - - 154 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 4 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - -5 - - - - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -457 - - -243 - - - - - -1100 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5474 - - 7964 - - - - - 3246 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2784 - - -1769 - - - - - -3731 ODpotential blCL - - - 7801 - - 9490 - - - - - 5877 blCL maxRH - - - 88 - - 89 - - - - - 93 maxRH CAPE - - - 1560 - - 1170 - - - - - 3320 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 86.0 - - 92.5 - - - - - 81.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 68.9 - - 64.5 - - - - - 73.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 84.7 - - 90.0 - - - - - 82.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 67.7 - - 64.2 - - - - - 73.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 363 - - - - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2917 - - 5621 - - - - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 51 - - 55 - - - - - 71 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 13 - - - - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99063 40 109 33 114 45 088 99063 91555 43 107 37 116 30 095 91555 85771 39 106 39 115 30 108 85771 80981 32 101 37 103 35 099 80981 76883 26 101 36 093 36 093 76883 73281 27 105 30 097 29 097 73281 70030 31 101 26 111 23 104 70030 67058 29 097 24 111 20 096 67058 64331 25 101 20 106 17 073 64331 61706 26 112 24 120 14 094 61706 58983 25 106 27 113 24 106 58983 56173 19 104 22 116 27 105 56173 53497 18 109 18 125 17 114 53497 51100 15 112 18 147 12 157 51100 48962 12 125 9 139 9 152 48962 47025 11 074 7 185 5 092 47025 45236 4 359 1 313 4 018 45236 43564 8 293 3 271 10 304 43564 41991 12 283 7 277 14 310 41991 40502 12 292 14 300 17 309 40502 39090 13 289 16 302 11 306 39090 37721 14 279 15 304 6 285 37721 36329 15 284 15 302 5 295 36329 34884 15 286 15 296 6 315 34884 33391 12 296 15 283 7 323 33391 31835 9 318 16 283 8 325 31835 30205 11 357 16 287 8 326 30205 28506 13 351 13 299 9 313 28506 26736 15 359 10 315 8 302 26736 24902 13 027 8 316 4 288 24902 23009 12 046 11 316 3 166 23009 21048 10 069 9 015 4 164 21048 19016 7 095 5 042 5 126 19016 16956 6 091 7 112 7 088 16956 14977 7 085 7 111 8 063 14977 13176 7 080 5 111 6 046 13176 11572 9 078 5 131 4 015 11572 10141 11 078 5 141 3 331 10141 8863 9 055 4 163 4 299 8863 7722 12 017 3*213 6 294 7722 6707 6 359 3*258 7 294 6707 5807 6*295 3 272 7 293 5807 5007 6*291 4 287 6 293 5007 4287 6 293 4 297 5 286 4287 3648 6 295 4 305 3 227 3648 3113 5 298 5 312 6 167 3113 2701 5 302 5 318 10 160 2701 2417 5 303 5 320 9 158 2417 2245 5 304 5 321 8*156 2245 2146 4 306 5 321 6*154 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography