DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1011z - - 1336z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2157z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.8 - - 90.3 - - 95.4 - - 94.0 - - 78.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 287 - - 284 - - 5 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 28 - - 3563 - - 7639 - - 30 - - 29 BL Depth Hcrit 2112 - - 4416 - - 7578 - - 2113 - - 2113 Hcrit BL Top 2128 - - 5663 - - 9739 - - 2130 - - 2129 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 732 - - 2483 - - 3177 - - 10311 - - 77 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 412 - - 529 - - 23 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 17 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 12 - - 5 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 146 - - 133 - - 104 - - 010 - - 335 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 1 - - -7 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8095 - - -7877 - - -4816 - - -11899 - - -8215 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10224 - - 13541 - - 14556 - - 14030 - - 10344 sfcLCL ODpotential -15982 - - -13221 - - -9568 - - -15775 - - -15617 ODpotential blCL 18110 - - 18884 - - 19307 - - 17905 - - 17746 blCL maxRH 47 - - 53 - - 43 - - 38 - - 33 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 73.8 - - 90.3 - - 95.4 - - 94.0 - - 78.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.3 - - 38.2 - - 38.5 - - 39.7 - - 41.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.7 - - 88.2 - - 93.9 - - 93.6 - - 81.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.3 - - 38.2 - - 38.5 - - 39.6 - - 41.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 287 - - 284 - - 5 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 28 - - 3563 - - 7639 - - 30 - - 29 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97838 8 009 7 208 13 238 17 310 9 324 97838 90860 8 021 5 066 3 179 5 251 4 341 90860 85418 7 024 7 038 6 049 7 136 2 327 85418 80867 6 016 7 019 11 028 10 091 3 033 80867 76933 6 355 7 006 11 014 9 058 6 023 76933 73452 7 328 7 345 12 001 10 029 8 013 73452 70299 7 307 8 326 13 341 11 358 10 359 70299 67404 5 306 8 321 12 332 12 338 9 348 67404 64724 7 329 8 325 11 328 12 331 10 331 64724 62138 9 343 6 327 9 319 12 334 11 322 62138 59464 11 326 8 328 10 307 15 329 12 325 59464 56717 16 309 14 315 13 297 18 308 16 318 56717 54114 24 308 21 309 19 294 23 286 21 299 54114 51772 32 306 28 302 24 286 28 278 26 282 51772 49659 41 304 35 297 30 285 33 280 33 278 49659 47725 47 301 42 293 37 286 39 284 40 281 47725 45938 52 299 48 291 43 287 44 288 45 285 45938 44278 53 300 51 291 49 290 46 293 46 290 44278 42729 50 300 49 291 50 290 46 294 43 293 42729 41277 44 299 44 291 47 291 41 293 39 295 41277 39907 39 296 40 289 39 290 35 290 35 296 39907 38579 35 295 36 285 32 290 30 287 31 294 38579 37224 31 296 32 281 28 289 29 286 30 288 37224 35813 28 298 27 279 25 282 28 285 29 279 35813 34349 25 302 24 280 23 276 23 281 25 276 34349 32814 20 305 21 279 20 279 20 278 21 277 32814 31194 13 298 18 274 19 279 18 278 16 280 31194 29489 7 297 15 270 18 276 16 278 13 280 29489 27697 6 313 12 269 15 272 15 275 12 274 27697 25823 6 320 9 273 11 265 12 265 11 263 25823 23870 4 322 7 276 8 263 9 258 9 259 23870 21833 3 337 4 284 6 264 5 270 6 271 21833 19703 2 327 1 288 3 235 2 277 2 294 19703 17531 2 289 1 197 3 203 2 256 2 309 17531 15441 1 295 1 200 2 139 1 161 2 281 15441 13543 4 333 2 359 2 052 4 120 2 181 13543 11856 7 338 5 356 4 046 7 115 6 173 11856 10357 7 004 8 004 6*071 7 103 8 163 10357 9021 6 029 9 036 6*100 7 093 8 142 9021 7831 5 060 9 074 6 105 6 085 9 121 7831 6777 4 096 7 108 6 106 4 069 8 101 6777 5846 10 139 10*128 6 106 4 056 7 074 5846 5024 21 139 13*133 6 106 3 041 8 047 5024 4289 30 136 13 134 5 104 3 030 9 026 4289 3639 33 135 13 134 5 103 3 023 11 012 3639 3098 30 133 13 134 5 102 4 019 13 003 3098 2684 26 134 12 133 5 101 4 015 14 357 2684 2399 19 140 11 133 5 100 4 013 13 356 2399 2227 17 141 11 133 5 100 3*012 10*356 2227 2129 7*146 10 132 5 100 3*010 4*335 2129 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography