DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 03/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.9 - - 81.6 - - 87.8 - - 87.0 - - 74.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 268 - - 337 - - 58 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3680 - - 6842 - - 6853 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4478 - - 7040 - - 5651 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5780 - - 8942 - - 8953 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 149 - - 2293 - - 1675 - - 2586 - - 191 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 407 - - 541 - - 303 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 29 - - 10 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 3 - - 10 - - 15 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 155 - - 246 - - 266 - - 276 - - 251 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - -3 - - -6 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9742 - - -10289 - - -9148 - - -9329 - - -13043 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11886 - - 16069 - - 18091 - - 18283 - - 15188 sfcLCL ODpotential -19911 - - -15976 - - -14285 - - -14480 - - -19671 ODpotential blCL 22054 - - 21756 - - 23227 - - 23433 - - 21815 blCL maxRH 17 - - 79 - - 82 - - 79 - - 49 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.9 - - 81.6 - - 87.8 - - 87.0 - - 74.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 18.5 - - 18.1 - - 14.4 - - 12.7 - - 15.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 62.0 - - 79.8 - - 85.5 - - 86.3 - - 77.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 18.2 - - 17.8 - - 14.0 - - 12.3 - - 15.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 268 - - 337 - - 58 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3680 - - 6842 - - 6853 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 18 - - 28 - - 18 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96508 21 268 21 252 37 235 35 248 34 280 96508 89220 13 286 12 251 18 252 21 249 21 268 89220 83655 10 284 10 257 16 271 11 284 14 274 83655 79071 12 276 16 289 20 291 14 310 12 343 79071 75112 6 318 16 289 14 299 18 307 23 333 75112 71629 20 323 16 302 15 298 21 301 26 314 71629 68529 26 316 23 309 22 295 22 306 28 328 68529 65698 29 309 30 314 26 296 22 299 31 321 65698 63062 32 312 29 314 27 302 29 287 33 315 63062 60494 34 309 30 311 30 306 32 286 36 305 60494 57805 35 300 35 306 33 298 34 288 38 298 57805 55011 38 295 39 298 36 291 39 292 41 295 55011 52334 38 296 41 294 37 288 42 292 46 295 52334 49912 41 302 38 295 37 290 43 289 50 297 49912 47727 46 299 38 293 38 288 44 286 54 298 47727 45739 45 296 38 292 41 290 49 292 57 297 45739 43918 47 302 45 287 49 288 58 292 59 295 43918 42243 56 302 45 295 56 282 61 287 63 288 42243 40697 55 294 60 282 60 279 64 286 67 282 40697 39259 47 292 60 277 60 278 66 278 72 276 39259 37903 47 296 56 276 59 282 65 278 69 276 37903 36593 46 300 53 278 59 283 64 282 66 279 36593 35261 48 295 48 280 59 283 63 282 67 283 35261 33877 46 288 47 284 58 283 60 282 64 282 33877 32446 43 287 50 291 57 284 59 283 61 277 32446 30954 46 284 51 291 54 284 57 282 60 275 30954 29391 50 280 51 287 53 281 56 277 61 285 29391 27761 49 280 50 284 52 278 54 278 60 291 27761 26064 45 284 49 281 49 280 53 281 53 296 26064 24306 40 290 47 280 47 280 50 284 46 298 24306 22486 37 293 39 280 44 280 46 285 43 297 22486 20595 36 294 34 279 40 280 42 286 42 297 20595 18625 36 295 33 281 37 284 38 287 37 299 18625 16617 30 294 31 286 34 287 34 289 30 303 16617 14680 24 288 27 285 29 288 29 288 25 305 14680 12917 20 275 21 278 23 285 23 285 21 303 12917 11349 14 276 17 277 20 276 19 275 14 297 11349 9955 11 258 14 277 15*264 17*270 10 297 9955 8710 12 251 12 262 11*260 16*271 11 298 8710 7597 9 256 10 249 11 261 16 272 13 289 7597 6605 4 279 5*247 11 263 16 274 14 281 6605 5725 4 256 4*244 10 265 16 275 17 274 5725 4943 3 223 3 245 10 267 16 277 19 268 4943 4239 3 251 3 245 9 270 15 278 21 264 4239 3614 5 257 2 246 9 272 15 279 23 261 3614 3091 7 230 2 245 8 274 14 280 23 260 3091 2688 8 198 2 251 8 275 14 281 22 259 2688 2409 9 162 1 250 8 276 13 281 17 257 2409 2241 7 152 1 253 8 276 12 281 13 255 2241 2144 4*155 1 252 7 277 10 281 7*251 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography