DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.0 - - 80.7 - - 83.8 - - 81.6 - - 77.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 35 - - 20 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1816 - - 1875 - - 46 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 3916 - - 3975 - - 2146 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1553 - - 2385 - - 2796 - - 2586 - - 645 Hgt.Variab. W* 30 - - 203 - - 189 - - 31 - - 10 W* B/S 1 - - 7 - - 22 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 2 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 127 - - 140 - - 014 - - 342 - - 296 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - -7 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -456 - - -9 - - -954 - - -1135 - - -1179 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2601 - - 3925 - - 4929 - - 3281 - - 3325 sfcLCL ODpotential -3331 - - -3295 - - -4083 - - -4126 - - -5418 ODpotential blCL 5476 - - 7211 - - 8058 - - 6272 - - 7564 blCL maxRH 81 - - 87 - - 86 - - 65 - - 73 maxRH CAPE 1290 - - 1790 - - 1840 - - 3350 - - 1700 CAPE Temp@2m 75.0 - - 80.7 - - 83.8 - - 81.6 - - 77.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 70.3 - - 70.3 - - 69.1 - - 73.7 - - 69.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 75.0 - - 80.3 - - 83.6 - - 82.5 - - 80.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 69.3 - - 68.9 - - 67.8 - - 72.4 - - 68.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 35 - - 20 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 1816 - - 1875 - - 46 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 22 - - 48 - - 44 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 15 - - 15 - - 19 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98832 27 102 32 099 33 129 19 128 20 078 98832 91423 34 101 32 098 28 111 25 094 25 086 91423 85707 30 094 29 105 28 098 26 086 25 084 85707 80965 29 092 28 096 28 095 25 080 26 079 80965 76894 23 100 25 087 31 093 26 092 26 080 76894 73310 18 114 21 083 27 087 29 094 24 090 73310 70059 19 127 17 106 19 092 23 080 23 082 70059 67063 18 131 17 126 12 098 15 080 19 077 67063 64291 8 101 13 123 13 119 12 096 11 092 64291 61621 7 101 12 138 8 141 12 108 8 110 61621 58865 3 129 14 151 13 176 3 182 3 036 58865 56059 4 252 8 172 10 209 7 237 9 256 56059 53418 9 279 6 200 12 231 12 257 11 253 53418 51038 17 270 9 247 15 236 17 253 14 256 51038 48887 25 268 18 260 20 252 23 262 25 269 48887 46923 28 254 25 261 25 252 28 256 32 262 46923 45109 26 239 21 247 23 240 25 240 30 247 45109 43419 25 231 22 238 22 233 23 234 29 238 43419 41830 23 226 24 235 22 234 24 233 29 236 41830 40329 25 216 24 227 23 237 25 229 29 233 40329 38911 30 206 27 221 23 229 26 227 28 232 38911 37540 35 197 33 215 27 220 27 224 29 232 37540 36146 40 197 41 204 32 220 30 224 29 230 36146 34703 43 196 44 196 40 210 31 222 30 224 34703 33214 42 196 43 194 46 204 34 212 31 211 33214 31666 37 203 40 200 40 203 40 204 36 205 31666 30049 34 204 36 200 35 201 40 196 40 199 30049 28371 34 202 33 194 34 196 36 194 42 191 28371 26630 28 204 29 185 33 190 36 199 38 188 26630 24825 24 203 28 185 30 191 34 198 35 192 24825 22960 20 208 24 193 26 191 31 198 30 193 22960 21027 15 218 18 204 21 187 25 196 23 193 21027 19018 12 216 15 211 17 188 21 188 19 186 19018 16972 12 217 14 208 17 198 18 190 18 183 16972 14996 12 221 15 207 17 207 15 205 15 189 14996 13194 12 227 16 207 16 208 12 211 14 192 13194 11587 13 232 14 210 15 203 13 198 16 180 11587 10154 13 232 13 212 14 197 16 184 16 178 10154 8873 12 226 12 212 13 192 16 186 13 191 8873 7729 12 220 11 210 12 190 13 189 10 197 7729 6709 11 220 10 206 11 190 9 186 7 187 6709 5806 10 221 9 200 8 186 6 176 5 163 5806 5004 10 218 8 188 6 182 3 143 3 135 5004 4283 11 206 7*172 3*163 2 090 3 082 4283 3644 11 188 6*150 1*034 3 027 5 038 3644 3110 10 158 5 140 1 020 6 357 6 019 3110 2699 10 132 5 139 2 010 7 347 7 005 2699 2416 8 129 5 136 2 007 7 345 6 352 2416 2244 6*128 4 137 2 006 6*344 3*331 2244 2146 5*127 4 135 2 005 4*342 2*296 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography