DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/04 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.3 - - 57.0 - - 63.2 - - 59.4 - - 49.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 108 - - 171 - - -7 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1204 - - 3677 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 4273 - - 2127 - - 2126 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 3304 - - 5777 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 110 - - 2494 - - 2045 - - 4797 - - 432 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 210 - - 351 - - 6 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 9 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 203 - - 140 - - 047 - - 333 - - 308 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -6 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -684 - - -3644 - - -4961 - - -8181 - - -6080 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2826 - - 6948 - - 10738 - - 10325 - - 8223 sfcLCL ODpotential -6887 - - -11458 - - -12176 - - -15740 - - -15372 ODpotential blCL 9029 - - 14762 - - 17953 - - 17883 - - 17515 blCL maxRH 64 - - 53 - - 65 - - 36 - - 62 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.3 - - 57.0 - - 63.2 - - 59.4 - - 49.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.8 - - 34.3 - - 23.6 - - 21.9 - - 22.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.9 - - 56.0 - - 61.8 - - 61.4 - - 54.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.6 - - 33.3 - - 23.2 - - 21.4 - - 21.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 108 - - 171 - - -7 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1204 - - 3677 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96382 3 314 15 277 13 288 12 269 13 277 96382 89255 8 356 8 270 6 331 7 259 14 293 89255 83773 5 315 3 263 2 005 8 287 11 310 83773 79237 3 296 4 282 7 302 11 322 12 336 79237 75323 8 322 1 313 9 318 6 341 10 333 75323 71855 16 326 6 002 9 346 6 015 8 350 71855 68710 17 311 10 339 8 006 8 031 5 017 68710 65810 8 304 14 332 11 003 11 031 6 010 65810 63111 2 346 12 322 12 355 10 021 7 016 63111 60487 10 027 8 304 11 348 10 019 10 023 60487 57737 8 354 7 307 9 333 10 010 13 014 57737 54880 7 352 5 318 5 329 9 002 16 011 54880 52154 14 331 7 342 5 018 11 008 20 024 52154 49699 17 306 9 339 9 027 13 020 24 031 49699 47485 18 281 9 314 11 010 15 015 22 029 47485 45464 19 281 10 283 11 339 13 004 19 028 45464 43603 23 290 13 284 10 306 8 347 14 018 43603 41883 32 283 23 273 12 274 8 328 8 343 41883 40284 38 269 30 258 19 268 10 300 7 324 40284 38788 44 259 37 252 26 263 15 263 9 320 38788 37385 51 263 53 249 35 259 21 257 14 297 37385 36038 67 257 72 245 53 250 33 245 18 286 36038 34686 79 252 83 241 73 240 52 239 19 278 34686 33303 79 250 82 241 76 235 59 235 24 272 33303 31888 65 256 73 246 66 238 58 238 27 265 31888 30423 60 259 55 247 54 244 47 248 26 259 30423 28892 52 265 46 253 49 244 39 247 26 259 28892 27292 49 267 45 254 44 244 34 251 27 266 27292 25624 44 281 44 262 39 247 30 259 26 270 25624 23890 39 295 36 276 34 258 28 269 26 275 23890 22093 35 304 27 283 25 269 25 274 24 278 22093 20224 29 301 24 279 23 269 21 280 22 285 20224 18275 26 291 22 278 21 269 20 295 16 304 18275 16286 21 298 17 285 16 277 13 307 13 315 16286 14367 14 307 12 288 9 283 6 308 7 345 14367 12619 8 293 10 293 5 301 1 244 2 044 12619 11069 7 316 1 359 2 192 5 205 3 236 11069 9697 8 017 7 137 3 165 7 180 8 214 9697 8480 11 056 7 122 5 114 9 169 10 201 8480 7396 11 082 8 101 8 104 9 146 8 191 7396 6434 8 103 9 093 7*092 8 112 5 114 6434 5583 6 098 8 086 5*076 7 087 9 055 5583 4829 5 081 7 092 5 068 5 061 11 032 4829 4151 5 079 6 112 4 045 4 022 12 015 4151 3551 4 105 6*134 4 037 5 359 14 359 3551 3049 5 130 5*141 4 031 5 351 16 349 3049 2662 5 145 4 140 4 027 5 343 15 344 2662 2396 4 161 4 139 4 027 6 339 11 340 2396 2235 4 187 3 139 4 025 5 337 6*327 2235 2143 4*203 3 137 4 025 4*333 4*308 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography