DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 09/20 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 89.7 - - 95.9 - - 94.9 - - 86.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 202 - - 265 - - 21 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3925 - - 9757 - - 9078 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4557 - - 9233 - - 5170 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6025 - - 11857 - - 11178 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4745 - - 3217 - - 4374 - - 1000 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 384 - - 565 - - 244 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 18 - - 12 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 8 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 205 - - 236 - - 251 - - 263 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 12 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - 9 - - 15 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3222 - - 290 - - -590 - - -7362 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9247 - - 11568 - - 11768 - - 9508 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4895 - - -538 - - -1544 - - -9845 ODpotential blCL - - - 10920 - - 12395 - - 12722 - - 11990 blCL maxRH - - - 74 - - 85 - - 94 - - 81 maxRH CAPE - - - 280 - - 210 - - 80 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 89.7 - - 95.9 - - 94.9 - - 86.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 56.5 - - 52.2 - - 50.5 - - 52.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 88.1 - - 93.9 - - 94.6 - - 88.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 55.9 - - 51.8 - - 50.1 - - 51.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 202 - - 265 - - 21 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3925 - - 9757 - - 9078 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 39 - - 76 - - 23 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 8 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98251 27 068 20 142 2 167 10 005 98251 90895 23 067 16 100 16 096 17 059 90895 85236 19 067 18 069 19 076 23 068 85236 80541 11 066 19 064 19 070 21 072 80541 76506 10 095 19 056 19 065 17 075 76506 72946 12 078 19 061 16 060 18 075 72946 69725 12 102 16 074 13 065 17 052 69725 66776 12 082 13 082 12 087 11 065 66776 64046 9 055 10 091 12 075 14 072 64046 61408 6 333 8 040 11 062 10 044 61408 58677 11 209 9 274 7 331 7 359 58677 55867 10 220 22 233 19 268 16 281 55867 53198 25 273 27 260 29 269 25 262 53198 50796 36 282 39 275 37 277 34 273 50796 48638 43 276 48 271 48 272 51 269 48638 46668 43 268 51 264 54 264 58 262 46668 44846 44 275 51 267 57 259 58 259 44846 43159 54 288 58 281 59 272 60 270 43159 41592 62 288 63 283 66 276 64 271 41592 40119 62 288 61 282 63 273 58 270 40119 38723 60 289 58 284 58 274 53 274 38723 37369 56 290 53 286 56 274 51 273 37369 35996 50 297 48 286 51 271 48 269 35996 34576 42 305 44 285 43 269 44 264 34576 33111 30 299 39 284 35 266 40 260 33111 31584 26 289 29 290 34 260 36 258 31584 29984 23 290 23 292 31 255 32 261 29984 28313 21 286 25 284 26 261 27 268 28313 26572 20 272 21 281 20 279 19 280 26572 24762 15 273 18 265 17 278 15 276 24762 22888 11 265 12 257 13 260 12 259 22888 20948 8 273 8 258 7 258 8 239 20948 18936 11 276 8 268 5 269 6 231 18936 16894 17 257 14 249 11 241 8 244 16894 14938 20 242 18 229 13 221 11 195 14938 13161 17 227 17*223 12 223 11 168 13161 11572 15 223 14*224 10*227 8 174 11572 10151 14 221 14 225 9*234 7 193 10151 8877 13 220 12 229 8 239 7 213 8877 7737 12 220 9 234 8 246 7 230 7737 6720 10*217 8 240 8 251 8 244 6720 5818 8*215 7 245 8 255 10 254 5818 5017 6 210 6 250 7 258 11 261 5017 4295 4 204 5 255 7 260 13 266 4295 3654 3 198 5 261 7 262 15 268 3654 3117 3 194 4 266 7 263 16 270 3117 2703 2 191 4 269 7 263 15 271 2703 2418 2 184 4 271 6 264 13 270 2418 2245 1 183 4 271 6 265 9 267 2245 2145 1 179 4 273 5 265 5*263 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography