DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1330z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2154z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.0 - - 59.6 - - 66.9 - - 61.8 - - 51.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 133 - - 164 - - -13 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1056 - - 2416 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 3338 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 3156 - - 4516 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 60 - - 1114 - - 1589 - - 2833 - - 241 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 213 - - 300 - - 7 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 33 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 189 - - 130 - - 003 - - 344 - - 336 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1801 - - -5227 - - -7022 - - -7725 - - -4562 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3944 - - 8384 - - 11538 - - 9868 - - 6705 sfcLCL ODpotential -13116 - - -13231 - - -14441 - - -16085 - - -14762 ODpotential blCL 15258 - - 16387 - - 18957 - - 18228 - - 16905 blCL maxRH 50 - - 38 - - 40 - - 40 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.0 - - 59.6 - - 66.9 - - 61.8 - - 51.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.8 - - 30.8 - - 24.1 - - 26.6 - - 30.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 43.4 - - 58.5 - - 65.6 - - 63.6 - - 56.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.5 - - 30.5 - - 23.8 - - 26.4 - - 30.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 133 - - 164 - - -13 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1056 - - 2416 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96937 20 302 19 317 11 335 11 358 15 310 96937 89800 18 345 8 349 9 020 14 009 20 047 89800 84249 14 356 9 020 10 034 7 017 21 047 84249 79614 4 353 9 345 5 031 5 359 10 028 79614 75599 3 321 10 324 9 005 6 350 7 012 75599 72038 7 321 11 284 11 304 7 346 8 357 72038 68801 10 306 13 278 16 288 16 317 10 351 68801 65816 23 286 17 280 20 289 22 296 17 315 65816 63053 28 287 25 289 27 286 22 293 24 290 63053 60376 34 282 33 285 26 298 24 307 26 290 60376 57590 36 288 37 286 35 302 30 302 28 284 57590 54707 40 287 36 281 36 295 34 298 27 295 54707 51966 39 280 32 283 34 296 36 295 31 309 51966 49524 37 302 34 304 32 308 33 301 34 310 49524 47367 40 315 38 300 32 315 31 308 32 304 47367 45430 41 323 32 337 32 342 29 332 29 309 45430 43667 50 331 50 350 47 353 43 345 36 332 43667 42057 48 328 52 345 51 348 38 334 37 335 42057 40564 36 336 39 352 42 346 33 337 38 343 40564 39155 41 004 33 006 36 353 33 349 39 345 39155 37820 65 013 39 014 38 007 38 352 38 344 37820 36524 76 012 48 014 45 010 42 353 37 342 36524 35205 65 011 50 011 44 007 43 351 35 341 35205 33834 48 009 52 007 45 003 42 349 32 342 33834 32414 41 357 53 003 49 000 41 348 29 343 32414 30932 42 349 51 359 49 359 38 347 28 343 30932 29378 47 342 45 353 46 355 34 347 29 339 29378 27752 47 334 42 349 40 350 31 343 30 332 27752 26056 45 332 43 347 35 345 31 336 30 325 26056 24291 44 338 45 346 33 341 31 333 29 321 24291 22457 44 342 43 346 35 339 30 336 29 320 22457 20548 40 339 41 345 35 336 28 335 27 320 20548 18561 36 331 40 342 34 337 26 332 22 326 18561 16539 32 329 37 337 32 339 25 335 18 331 16539 14588 30 334 32 335 29 340 24 340 16 333 14588 12808 28 335 27 337 24 336 23 342 16 337 12808 11223 22 330 23 339 19 335 21 346 18 343 11223 9818 16 329 19 339 15 337 17 350 17 352 9818 8571 14 339 15 337 13 336 13 353 13 357 8571 7463 12 350 13 336 10 333 11 350 10 001 7463 6482 9 359 10 341 9 334 10 348 7 358 6482 5617 7 011 7 358 4 340 8 344 5 343 5617 4853 7 028 5 033 1*358 5 333 5 328 4853 4168 8 046 5 070 1*359 5 330 5 325 4168 3562 7 061 6*090 1 002 6 334 5 328 3562 3055 5 086 4*128 2 001 7 338 6 344 3055 2666 4 136 4 131 2 007 7 341 8 353 2666 2398 5 171 4 130 2 005 7 342 8 354 2398 2236 5 180 3 130 2 004 7 343 4 351 2236 2143 5*189 3 129 2 006 5*344 3*336 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography