DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 01/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.2 - - 64.4 - - 73.8 - - 71.7 - - 57.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 140 - - 183 - - -17 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 961 - - 2695 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 3594 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3061 - - 4795 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 79 - - 723 - - 1907 - - 4649 - - 237 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 209 - - 324 - - 9 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 9 - - 15 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 184 - - 031 - - 032 - - 347 - - 294 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3640 - - -7510 - - -9258 - - -12597 - - -8390 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5784 - - 10571 - - 14054 - - 14742 - - 10535 sfcLCL ODpotential -15302 - - -14844 - - -14789 - - -18251 - - -16810 ODpotential blCL 17445 - - 17905 - - 19584 - - 20395 - - 18954 blCL maxRH 35 - - 47 - - 43 - - 13 - - 17 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 45.2 - - 64.4 - - 73.8 - - 71.7 - - 57.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.2 - - 26.0 - - 19.5 - - 14.5 - - 19.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.6 - - 63.2 - - 72.4 - - 73.0 - - 63.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.1 - - 25.8 - - 19.2 - - 14.1 - - 19.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 140 - - 183 - - -17 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 961 - - 2695 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96549 20 082 25 080 22 068 21 052 22 087 96549 89394 26 075 35 087 28 094 25 067 37 078 89394 83873 28 071 27 088 22 088 24 083 30 072 83873 79309 23 070 19 074 15 095 19 086 25 079 79309 75362 15 053 14 064 16 079 6 111 15 049 75362 71843 15 040 8 046 9 033 11 052 12 051 71843 68635 11 021 8 029 6 342 4 307 21 007 68635 65672 9 322 11 332 12 340 6 306 19 331 65672 62936 16 297 19 306 17 334 11 339 18 306 62936 60312 23 309 23 307 25 326 20 339 19 323 60312 57589 33 313 28 317 27 324 29 324 28 314 57589 54765 41 301 35 315 37 314 36 312 41 307 54765 52075 32 291 44 310 48 309 46 314 56 314 52075 49661 26 290 43 307 52 306 56 310 65 310 49661 47493 30 317 41 315 51 304 58 301 67 305 47493 45510 37 317 42 318 50 300 56 298 70 303 45510 43678 46 311 43 315 47 302 56 299 72 302 43678 41974 50 303 44 313 46 311 56 304 71 302 41974 40385 39 286 45 301 51 316 59 311 67 309 40385 38907 35 296 45 290 53 301 58 310 65 313 38907 37532 31 308 40 287 47 298 55 305 65 307 37532 36214 27 313 33 294 41 311 52 309 62 308 36214 34885 25 314 28 294 41 312 52 309 61 310 34885 33517 24 308 27 294 38 303 50 304 60 306 33517 32107 21 304 26 296 36 298 49 299 55 306 32107 30639 20 308 26 298 35 298 47 300 46 311 30639 29104 20 306 26 300 34 298 46 305 42 318 29104 27505 20 306 27 311 36 306 44 314 41 327 27505 25838 24 318 28 325 34 319 38 323 39 336 25838 24103 23 318 25 324 28 323 32 335 37 341 24103 22299 19 314 23 318 25 318 29 343 29 339 22299 20423 16 318 20 328 22 325 27 343 27 334 20423 18469 13 315 19 342 19 339 23 339 28 328 18469 16473 14 327 16 353 15 350 19 334 25 322 16473 14544 14 354 12 005 13 355 17 340 23 329 14544 12786 14 007 10 016 12 005 16 354 18 337 12786 11222 15 010 8 021 9 013 15 006 12 352 11222 9832 15 019 7 042 7 045 12 030 8 016 9832 8594 15 031 9 047 10 059 10 061 7 029 8594 7492 16 037 12 036 12 058 9 073 7 032 7492 6513 14 041 12 029 11 059 7 064 8 026 6513 5647 12 044 12 029 8 057 7 037 9 015 5647 4879 12 042 11 037 5*043 8 017 11 004 4879 4189 12 046 7 045 4*038 9 005 11 001 4189 3577 11 054 5*040 4 034 9 357 11 000 3577 3066 7 063 4*030 4 032 10 354 11 359 3066 2673 4 074 4 031 4 030 10 351 10 358 2673 2402 3 115 4 031 3 028 9 349 7 358 2402 2238 3*163 4 032 3 027 8 347 3*353 2238 2144 4*184 4 032 3 027 6*347 1*294 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography