DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 03/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 63.7 - - 85.2 - - 92.1 - - 91.7 - - 77.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - 265 - - 338 - - 69 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3040 - - 5650 - - 5524 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3992 - - 6099 - - 4897 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5140 - - 7750 - - 7624 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 145 - - 1952 - - 1785 - - 2369 - - 180 Hgt.Variab. W* 19 - - 380 - - 508 - - 297 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 13 - - 22 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 5 - - 4 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 126 - - 002 - - 355 - - 300 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 3 - - -9 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9048 - - -10329 - - -9212 - - -8752 - - -11422 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11192 - - 15470 - - 16963 - - 16377 - - 13568 sfcLCL ODpotential -19850 - - -17373 - - -15126 - - -14586 - - -20027 ODpotential blCL 21993 - - 22513 - - 22876 - - 22210 - - 22172 blCL maxRH 41 - - 49 - - 44 - - 52 - - 22 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 63.7 - - 85.2 - - 92.1 - - 91.7 - - 77.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.4 - - 24.7 - - 24.2 - - 26.6 - - 26.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 63.7 - - 83.2 - - 89.7 - - 90.8 - - 82.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.3 - - 24.4 - - 23.9 - - 26.4 - - 26.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - 265 - - 338 - - 69 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3040 - - 5650 - - 5524 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96981 39 275 35 272 36 279 33 271 37 288 96981 89641 22 252 23 253 22 265 25 258 27 276 89641 84050 4 252 16 255 19 253 15 287 11 278 84050 79456 5 029 7 152 14 197 11 274 13 296 79456 75504 12 030 12 074 16 118 9 160 4 233 75504 72007 6 023 10 052 11 074 9 088 15 108 72007 68845 6 200 3 160 2 245 9 003 17 045 68845 65957 4 103 8 033 4 091 7 321 18 000 65957 63301 16 053 16 015 17 043 2 244 9 342 63301 60727 18 032 19 353 24 348 15 011 14 339 60727 58065 29 357 19 358 24 338 27 354 23 358 58065 55338 40 354 28 009 28 359 26 001 27 006 55338 52736 37 349 34 008 31 009 29 011 27 356 52736 50377 35 014 35 004 33 007 29 003 29 002 50377 48244 46 024 31 006 30 002 30 355 34 003 48244 46299 53 021 35 014 30 002 34 354 37 359 46299 44516 50 020 41 016 40 009 38 358 36 359 44516 42873 47 024 44 013 47 011 43 001 40 001 42873 41342 47 025 45 012 52 007 47 002 46 002 41342 39898 50 024 46 016 52 005 46 005 46 007 39898 38529 51 022 46 022 46 007 42 011 41 009 38529 37203 50 022 47 024 44 012 40 018 36 006 37203 35856 47 022 44 024 44 017 40 024 35 010 35856 34457 43 021 41 024 42 020 35 027 33 018 34457 33011 40 020 39 023 35 017 26 023 30 021 33011 31502 43 021 38 024 31 016 23 011 27 023 31502 29919 48 024 39 025 30 017 25 005 24 020 29919 28264 48 026 41 025 31 015 30 004 26 013 28264 26538 41 024 41 024 33 014 32 008 31 011 26538 24743 35 019 40 023 34 018 31 016 33 015 24743 22882 31 012 33 021 34 022 31 025 32 023 22882 20947 27 005 24 015 29 024 31 030 33 031 20947 18929 24 356 21 000 19 014 26 026 31 038 18929 16870 23 358 22 352 19 349 21 006 25 035 16870 14890 19 009 20 357 19 353 20 357 20 022 14890 13092 16 018 12 356 14 359 18 008 17 015 13092 11494 14 028 8 325 10 343 14 027 12 026 11494 10071 14 035 8 329 8 348 10 042 9 045 10071 8801 11 038 10 359 5*023 8 031 8 058 8801 7667 9 036 14 035 4*020 8*019 6 063 7667 6659 9 035 13 050 4 018 8*012 5 059 6659 5766 9 051 10*077 4 010 8 003 4 033 5766 4974 9 082 7*106 4 001 9 357 5 348 4974 4262 10 104 6 125 4 356 9 354 8 327 4262 3630 12 114 5 130 4 352 9 351 10 320 3630 3101 15 118 5 131 5 348 9 350 12 318 3101 2694 14 126 5 132 5 347 9 348 12 317 2694 2413 10 136 4 132 5 346 9 347 11 315 2413 2242 5 147 4 133 5 346 8 347 8*309 2242 2145 2*160 4 133 4 346 8 347 4*300 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography