DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/10 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.0 - - 74.8 - - 79.7 - - 76.0 - - 65.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 178 - - 187 - - -10 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2306 - - 4512 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3304 - - 4942 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 4406 - - 6612 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 213 - - 2257 - - 1938 - - 6147 - - 196 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 305 - - 388 - - 11 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 19 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 138 - - 043 - - 340 - - 340 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -3 - - -4 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2844 - - -4502 - - -4304 - - -8146 - - -5005 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4988 - - 8908 - - 10917 - - 10292 - - 7149 sfcLCL ODpotential -10664 - - -9436 - - -9311 - - -13637 - - -11758 ODpotential blCL 12808 - - 13842 - - 15923 - - 15782 - - 13902 blCL maxRH 53 - - 42 - - 39 - - 40 - - 42 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 59.0 - - 74.8 - - 79.7 - - 76.0 - - 65.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 44.9 - - 43.4 - - 39.3 - - 38.6 - - 42.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.9 - - 73.3 - - 78.1 - - 77.4 - - 69.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 44.6 - - 43.0 - - 38.8 - - 38.0 - - 42.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 178 - - 187 - - -10 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 2306 - - 4512 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96886 65 274 65 275 63 268 57 266 58 273 96886 89621 47 287 42 281 43 275 41 287 34 290 89621 84062 33 293 28 294 29 287 30 302 26 309 84062 79473 19 292 21 281 26 284 31 302 31 319 79473 75539 18 313 17 295 19 290 27 295 33 316 75539 72065 22 314 18 308 17 307 20 291 29 304 72065 68924 22 311 19 307 20 306 17 292 24 298 68924 66042 24 303 24 299 25 302 21 307 22 310 66042 63373 23 296 28 299 27 296 26 313 24 313 63373 60791 20 299 27 300 23 290 27 310 24 310 60791 58101 19 310 24 298 23 291 28 305 25 316 58101 55313 24 307 24 288 29 296 30 299 28 309 55313 52642 29 296 26 286 30 301 29 298 28 300 52642 50218 30 287 25 296 27 307 27 299 26 298 50218 48031 32 276 27 294 26 294 26 298 22 306 48031 46033 36 271 31 283 25 292 29 291 24 313 46033 44192 35 267 34 274 30 288 27 290 26 312 44192 42491 29 265 32 263 31 274 23 289 28 303 42491 40917 23 276 25 257 31 258 24 280 25 281 40917 39456 20 287 19 265 25 251 26 264 24 272 39456 38089 18 293 17 269 22 253 26 255 24 266 38089 36773 15 302 15 273 18 254 21 248 24 257 36773 35437 15 310 12 283 15 263 16 256 21 254 35437 34049 12 316 11 288 12 266 14 263 18 261 34049 32613 6 298 9 279 13 270 13 272 17 271 32613 31117 3 316 6 270 11 277 12 281 15 282 31117 29551 4 033 1 295 8 292 10 288 12 291 29551 27919 7 032 4 040 7 316 8 311 8 296 27919 26219 11 018 9 034 6 346 8 332 7 330 26219 24448 10 019 8 027 5 011 6 342 6 336 24448 22608 6 035 6 015 5 006 5 357 4 336 22608 20693 7 060 4 038 4 019 3 001 3 335 20693 18696 7 055 4 045 3 035 4 014 3 030 18696 16663 9 054 6 057 5 053 6 021 6 042 16663 14709 11 058 9 064 7 068 7 050 8 051 14709 12933 12 061 10 064 8 067 8 071 9 061 12933 11355 11 064 10 064 8 060 8 075 8 062 11355 9950 11 072 10 070 9 066 8 094 8 068 9950 8697 10 080 10 078 9 078 9 103 7 087 8697 7580 8 079 10 084 7*080 8 091 6 105 7580 6586 7 066 8 086 4*063 6 073 5 092 6586 5707 6 061 7 084 4 056 4 038 5 052 5707 4926 5 078 5*096 4 046 5 010 7 026 4926 4226 7 119 6*131 4 042 5 359 10 017 4226 3604 10 137 7 139 4 035 6 351 12 012 3604 3083 16 139 7 140 4 032 7 347 13 009 3083 2683 18 141 7 140 4 029 7 345 13 006 2683 2407 15 146 6 140 4 027 7 343 11 003 2407 2240 9*150 6 140 4 028 6*341 7*352 2240 2144 4*166 6 139 4 027 4*340 5*340 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography