DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.4 - - 79.6 - - 87.2 - - 85.8 - - 72.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 5 - - 276 - - 360 - - 64 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2275 - - 6694 - - 5030 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3442 - - 6954 - - 4477 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4375 - - 8794 - - 7130 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 199 - - 2278 - - 1314 - - 2510 - - 231 Hgt.Variab. W* 24 - - 350 - - 549 - - 282 - - 3 W* B/S 1 - - 24 - - 8 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 3 - - 13 - - 14 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 164 - - 261 - - 315 - - 331 - - 271 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 5 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - 3 - - 4 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8630 - - -11051 - - -8114 - - -9294 - - -12260 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10774 - - 15427 - - 16909 - - 16425 - - 14405 sfcLCL ODpotential -18146 - - -16953 - - -13121 - - -14975 - - -20478 ODpotential blCL 20289 - - 21328 - - 21915 - - 22105 - - 22623 blCL maxRH 22 - - 66 - - 63 - - 64 - - 26 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.4 - - 79.6 - - 87.2 - - 85.8 - - 72.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.7 - - 19.2 - - 19.4 - - 20.4 - - 17.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.3 - - 77.7 - - 84.7 - - 85.0 - - 77.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.6 - - 19.0 - - 19.1 - - 20.1 - - 17.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 5 - - 276 - - 360 - - 64 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2275 - - 6694 - - 5030 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96761 32 252 21 264 32 253 35 258 42 266 96761 89450 16 258 18 246 21 264 20 263 19 286 89450 83856 10 318 10 262 14 275 20 280 14 309 83856 79213 15 316 8 324 7 321 10 274 13 339 79213 75223 11 309 9 335 8 339 6 011 14 009 75223 71714 13 327 16 346 14 346 14 353 19 009 71714 68555 25 332 15 337 15 354 11 350 17 358 68555 65668 37 323 31 325 26 328 15 035 7 050 65668 62996 39 321 39 323 38 333 31 350 15 004 62996 60415 41 318 45 322 46 323 39 335 34 346 60415 57728 44 310 48 315 41 316 45 329 48 341 57728 54939 46 303 49 313 44 321 51 328 54 333 54939 52272 49 305 51 313 54 315 51 316 49 322 52272 49863 62 309 54 305 52 302 41 310 40 331 49863 47705 66 298 50 294 41 301 36 353 51 354 47705 45768 56 290 40 312 61 346 68 359 73 356 45768 44014 50 325 62 332 77 342 75 347 74 352 44014 42399 64 328 59 328 64 337 61 344 59 354 42399 40886 62 313 45 327 56 339 60 347 54 001 40886 39456 47 310 51 348 60 342 61 352 62 011 39456 38103 46 319 56 345 61 342 64 359 65 016 38103 36792 49 312 55 340 64 344 66 002 69 016 36792 35458 48 317 56 343 63 349 62 002 71 014 35458 34072 49 336 56 346 59 352 57 001 70 011 34072 32639 53 343 54 347 52 355 52 000 67 010 32639 31145 53 343 52 348 45 359 48 003 59 009 31145 29580 49 339 51 348 42 002 46 005 49 006 29580 27945 46 336 44 340 40 001 44 001 43 003 27945 26239 40 335 41 331 35 350 34 348 40 001 26239 24465 36 336 39 327 35 337 30 337 35 358 24465 22624 32 336 35 324 39 329 30 333 32 351 22624 20709 29 329 31 318 38 323 33 331 30 340 20709 18716 29 328 29 316 32 317 35 334 32 337 18716 16687 26 331 26 321 28 315 34 338 30 343 16687 14735 23 335 22 329 25 324 30 341 28 357 14735 12960 21 331 21 329 22 334 25 345 24 005 12960 11380 21 338 21 330 22 339 21 346 19 002 11380 9974 20 351 16 340 21*334 19 342 17 358 9974 8720 18 355 14 349 15*321 16 331 17 358 8720 7602 15 352 12 342 14 315 15*327 17 355 7602 6607 11 346 11 332 13 314 14*327 16 344 6607 5726 7 348 10 330 13 313 14 328 16 331 5726 4944 5 344 7*327 13 313 14 329 15 322 4944 4240 7 333 3*269 13 313 14 331 15 319 4240 3615 6 295 3 264 12 314 14 332 14 318 3615 3091 5 221 3 260 12 314 14 333 13 317 3091 2688 8 165 2 257 12 315 14 334 12 315 2688 2410 10 149 2 256 11 315 13 334 9 311 2410 2241 7 155 2 256 11 316 12 334 5*294 2241 2145 4*164 2 254 10 316 11 334 3*271 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography