DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.9 - - 87.5 - - 92.9 - - 93.6 - - 82.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 114 - - 447 - - 475 - - 171 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1131 - - 6631 - - 9219 - - 10174 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 7000 - - 9125 - - 9228 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 3231 - - 8731 - - 11319 - - 12274 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3017 - - 1347 - - 1113 - - 1427 - - 6703 Hgt.Variab. W* 207 - - 588 - - 669 - - 493 - - 0 W* B/S 6 - - 40 - - 24 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 5 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 172 - - 275 - - 256 - - 266 - - 282 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 5 - - 6 - - 13 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -6 - - -11 - - 16 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9331 - - -6178 - - -5612 - - -5794 - - -13219 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12563 - - 14909 - - 16932 - - 18069 - - 15364 sfcLCL ODpotential -14980 - - -10900 - - -9290 - - -9823 - - -19123 ODpotential blCL 18211 - - 19631 - - 20609 - - 22097 - - 21268 blCL maxRH 26 - - 25 - - 24 - - 26 - - 25 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 77.9 - - 87.5 - - 92.9 - - 93.6 - - 82.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.4 - - 28.8 - - 24.6 - - 20.2 - - 22.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.7 - - 84.6 - - 89.9 - - 92.1 - - 86.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.3 - - 28.7 - - 24.5 - - 20.1 - - 22.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 114 - - 447 - - 475 - - 171 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1131 - - 6631 - - 9219 - - 10174 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98241 3 326 6 154 5 201 12 316 9 355 98241 90799 10 174 4 169 6 226 5 299 1 274 90799 85058 6 139 3 199 6 189 2 142 3 251 85058 80289 6 020 2 253 5 168 6 142 2 178 80289 76172 7 013 4 183 2 275 1 251 1 329 76172 72544 2 339 3 194 1 333 0 030 3 282 72544 69305 1 134 5 237 6 284 3 348 5 310 69305 66373 5 308 5 220 9 251 7 263 10 276 66373 63666 9 285 6 260 9 251 11 257 13 274 63666 61031 21 266 20 269 20 273 22 276 21 288 61031 58270 28 247 28 250 29 257 31 265 31 269 58270 55397 29 257 30 253 30 251 35 254 35 259 55397 52663 34 272 30 265 30 262 33 260 35 264 52663 50220 39 278 30 275 27 275 31 267 34 268 50220 48039 43 275 29 279 28 282 26 276 30 266 48039 46055 40 274 28 276 27 276 29 279 30 267 46055 44228 37 279 28 277 25 276 31 276 32 271 44228 42535 38 287 30 284 24 277 31 271 35 273 42535 40959 43 289 35 283 26 289 24 274 32 266 40959 39485 37 285 33 281 31 286 23 297 23 271 39485 38102 23 296 24 289 30 278 27 301 18 301 38102 36775 20 321 18 294 22 272 24 294 20 309 36775 35434 22 331 14 304 13 281 17 288 20 302 35434 34047 21 330 14 310 9 299 12 292 18 296 34047 32616 17 328 12 333 9 308 9 316 16 297 32616 31125 18 307 11 331 9 306 11 330 15 300 31125 29564 19 278 12 304 13 314 15 333 15 307 29564 27932 20 270 14 288 16 320 18 335 13 319 27932 26231 22 270 14 302 17 329 17 339 11 340 26231 24462 20 274 16 313 18 328 13 340 10 001 24462 22629 15 285 18 305 15 321 11 315 7 336 22629 20727 17 305 19 305 14 319 12 286 8 285 20727 18745 14 293 12 313 11 302 12 268 12 268 18745 16722 10 255 9 291 8 290 9 250 7 261 16722 14769 7 227 7 204 7 234 14 211 10 234 14769 12999 8 219 8 182 10 208 13*214 14 182 12999 11431 11 224 9 204 8*220 12*219 10 192 11431 10032 13 231 9*225 7*226 10 234 8 224 10032 8778 9 234 5*246 7 231 9 251 9 247 8778 7656 1 201 3 260 6 241 9 263 10 257 7656 6655 4 024 3 267 5 254 9 274 11 265 6655 5767 6 000 3 272 5 263 9 281 12 270 5767 4978 5 325 2 280 5 270 9 287 13 274 4978 4267 5 269 2 287 5 277 9 291 13 277 4267 3634 6*217 2 295 5 281 9 296 13 280 3634 3104 7*182 2 301 5 286 8 298 13 282 3104 2696 6 171 2 308 5 288 8 300 12 284 2696 2414 6 170 2 308 5 288 8 301 10 286 2414 2243 5 168 2 309 4 289 8 302 7*284 2243 2145 5 168 2 311 4 291 7 302 5*282 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography