DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/23 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 87.9 - - 92.5 - - 93.3 - - 84.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 471 - - 479 - - 182 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 8481 - - 11234 - - 12714 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 8519 - - 10783 - - 11284 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 10581 - - 13334 - - 14814 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2375 - - 1712 - - 933 - - 9234 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 649 - - 717 - - 542 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 32 - - 25 - - 23 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 122 - - 165 - - 222 - - 264 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 14 - - 15 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - -23 - - 8 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1973 - - -1763 - - -1112 - - -12320 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12555 - - 15098 - - 15927 - - 14466 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3996 - - -4567 - - -4144 - - -17106 ODpotential blCL - - - 14577 - - 17901 - - 18958 - - 19251 blCL maxRH - - - 52 - - 53 - - 58 - - 64 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 87.9 - - 92.5 - - 93.3 - - 84.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.7 - - 32.6 - - 29.7 - - 28.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 84.9 - - 89.6 - - 91.6 - - 86.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 39.6 - - 32.6 - - 29.6 - - 28.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 471 - - 479 - - 182 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 8481 - - 11234 - - 12714 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98174 13 123 14 153 4 097 9 106 98174 90752 10 106 9 166 2 068 9 063 90752 85059 14 132 8 099 10 123 7 034 85059 80353 10 109 10 099 9 101 11 081 80353 76298 3 128 10 070 13 089 11 093 76298 72702 6 141 0 041 6 069 9 099 72702 69434 7 113 5 198 2 200 1 335 69434 66425 5 274 5 209 5 216 5 259 66425 63632 14 262 10 248 11 248 9 284 63632 60928 18 257 17 253 18 261 19 287 60928 58128 20 269 18 264 21 268 24 286 58128 55247 22 282 21 279 25 279 28 292 55247 52511 26 287 24 287 29 288 32 291 52511 50053 31 295 27 291 32 290 34 289 50053 47862 35 296 29 296 30 289 33 288 47862 45891 31 294 31 294 27 293 32 286 45891 44099 31 302 26 298 25 288 26 290 44099 42449 33 301 28 301 23 298 25 290 42449 40910 30 298 27 298 26 302 24 290 40910 39461 24 312 21 304 26 297 23 299 39461 38092 26 326 21 318 20 295 25 298 38092 36768 28 329 23 322 15 305 22 289 36768 35423 26 328 21 313 15 307 17 287 35423 34032 20 331 15 309 16 303 16 293 34032 32596 17 346 12 312 13 291 17 291 32596 31102 14 356 9 318 11 279 14 279 31102 29537 12 343 10 321 9 291 11 268 29537 27902 15 323 13 323 10 306 8 284 27902 26196 10 332 14 338 7 338 4 311 26196 24422 10 308 9 353 2 030 2 134 24422 22587 10 289 6 328 1 315 3 175 22587 20686 7 294 2 357 3 126 5 188 20686 18708 6 204 3 320 3 048 3 040 18708 16695 9 135 9 171 10*164 13 125 16695 14765 14 150 15*165 11*184 14 126 14765 13009 22 148 12*164 10 193 6 120 13009 11439 17*145 11 165 9 200 1 335 11439 10036 10*146 10 166 7 208 4 296 10036 8780 9 146 8 167 5 221 6 283 8780 7656 7 145 5 166 4 242 9 273 7656 6654 3 122 3 166 3 270 11 268 6654 5765 2 101 2 163 3 293 13 264 5765 4975 2 076 1 156 4 306 14 263 4975 4264 2 057 0 018 4 315 16 262 4264 3633 3 045 1 357 5 320 17 263 3633 3103 3 036 1 356 5 324 18 263 3103 2695 3 031 2 356 5 326 17 264 2695 2414 3 030 2 355 5 326 14 265 2414 2243 3 030 2 357 5 327 11*265 2243 2145 3 028 2 355 5 328 7*264 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography