DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/11 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.6 - - 70.5 - - 79.4 - - 72.4 - - 61.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - 72 - - 119 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 360 - - 2144 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2128 - - 2981 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2460 - - 4244 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 64 - - 712 - - 1815 - - 2324 - - 208 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 122 - - 261 - - 10 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 18 - - 0 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 159 - - 147 - - 011 - - 345 - - 308 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - -2 - - 2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6544 - - -9554 - - -9805 - - -10311 - - -7310 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8687 - - 12015 - - 14050 - - 12456 - - 9455 sfcLCL ODpotential -20039 - - -17961 - - -15900 - - -17330 - - -16307 ODpotential blCL 22182 - - 20421 - - 20144 - - 19474 - - 18451 blCL maxRH 30 - - 32 - - 33 - - 26 - - 30 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.6 - - 70.5 - - 79.4 - - 72.4 - - 61.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.6 - - 26.0 - - 25.2 - - 25.9 - - 28.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.1 - - 69.8 - - 78.1 - - 75.5 - - 66.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.1 - - 25.7 - - 24.8 - - 25.5 - - 28.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - 72 - - 119 - - -12 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 360 - - 2144 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96412 18 305 27 316 18 285 19 315 32 277 96412 89261 15 032 9 050 2 013 3 020 13 342 89261 83724 12 021 9 049 5 019 1 321 16 003 83724 79152 12 024 1 045 5 357 4 293 13 345 79152 75225 15 026 4 163 5 329 5 325 14 331 75225 71749 12 003 5 088 1 078 5 346 16 336 71749 68601 11 325 6 328 7 354 11 348 18 340 68601 65719 12 309 13 315 12 321 16 337 21 337 65719 63059 13 310 19 298 18 315 18 312 23 317 63059 60495 17 310 22 279 22 308 20 310 25 301 60495 57826 22 295 25 279 26 296 24 308 28 300 57826 55047 27 290 27 284 29 286 30 299 30 295 55047 52383 28 292 26 290 30 283 31 293 30 292 52383 49972 32 291 25 289 26 282 32 286 31 294 49972 47799 28 283 22 285 22 283 27 282 29 298 47799 45817 16 276 15 252 18 273 20 278 25 301 45817 44007 5 356 1 164 8 229 17 264 21 290 44007 42354 7 279 4 358 3 099 7 173 13 264 42354 40825 7 220 1 209 1 064 8 129 5 163 40825 39393 9 151 6 156 4 170 9 137 6 072 39393 38042 12 121 10 141 7 168 7 150 5 051 38042 36736 14 119 10 127 7 152 4 157 4 031 36736 35409 11 114 10 092 6 112 3 128 7 028 35409 34030 5 083 9 079 7 083 3 056 9 019 34030 32605 4 061 9 080 6 075 5 035 10 019 32605 31118 4 064 9 064 10 034 8 028 13 029 31118 29559 9 039 12 027 15 021 12 024 13 033 29559 27927 15 022 14 011 16 027 13 035 14 035 27927 26222 16 016 18 017 18 037 16 043 16 034 26222 24444 18 018 21 024 22 037 22 041 19 034 24444 22598 21 022 25 028 22 039 26 043 23 035 22598 20685 16 029 19 033 15 046 20 053 20 047 20685 18700 11 048 11 056 11 059 15 063 15 064 18700 16681 9 074 9 086 7 078 13 066 14 066 16681 14733 9 082 7 078 8 072 10 050 13 056 14733 12956 8 077 6 053 8 041 13 029 14 041 12956 11371 9 071 7 043 10 027 14 025 13 034 11371 9958 8 068 6 049 9 021 13 019 13 028 9958 8698 7 068 6 061 6 033 10 019 14 025 8698 7574 7 068 6 074 6 062 6 025 14 022 7574 6575 7 069 6 082 6 079 3 070 10 025 6575 5692 8 073 5 089 3 088 2 094 4 017 5692 4911 5 087 3 087 2*070 1 036 4 350 4911 4211 4 124 2 099 2*021 3 342 6 348 4211 3591 10 141 6 149 2 013 5 337 7 347 3591 3074 13 142 10 149 3 010 6 341 8 350 3074 2677 10 146 7*151 3 007 7 344 9 354 2677 2404 7 149 3*149 3 009 8 346 7 356 2404 2239 6*147 3 147 3 008 7 345 3*353 2239 2144 5*159 3 147 3 008 5*345 1*308 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography