DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 08/09 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 85.6 - - 98.7 - - 105.1 - - 105.8 - - 97.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 130 - - 420 - - 456 - - 166 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1695 - - 4836 - - 10192 - - 10118 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2699 - - 5545 - - 9900 - - 9158 - - 2130 Hcrit BL Top 3795 - - 6936 - - 12292 - - 12218 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1418 - - 2202 - - 3766 - - 6108 - - 4897 Hgt.Variab. W* 247 - - 518 - - 683 - - 487 - - 11 W* B/S 7 - - 24 - - 65 - - 25 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 200 - - 347 - - 339 - - 348 - - 254 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 2 - - 9 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 2 - - -10 - - -5 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2119 - - -3482 - - -506 - - -1562 - - -8244 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5914 - - 10419 - - 12798 - - 13781 - - 10390 sfcLCL ODpotential -6291 - - -5361 - - -2479 - - -2505 - - -10439 ODpotential blCL 10086 - - 12297 - - 14771 - - 14723 - - 12585 blCL maxRH 65 - - 50 - - 46 - - 88 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 1540 - - 1270 - - 1100 - - 750 - - 1760 CAPE Temp@2m 85.6 - - 98.7 - - 105.1 - - 105.8 - - 97.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 66.8 - - 60.1 - - 55.9 - - 52.3 - - 58.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 84.4 - - 95.9 - - 102.2 - - 104.2 - - 97.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 66.7 - - 60.1 - - 55.8 - - 52.3 - - 59.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 130 - - 420 - - 456 - - 166 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1695 - - 4836 - - 10192 - - 10118 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 51 - - 27 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 15 - - 12 - - 9 - - 9 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99090 37 099 34 099 39 102 36 116 30 096 99090 91597 46 099 41 113 37 114 32 102 34 087 91597 85803 43 094 38 110 36 115 34 098 31 090 85803 80999 30 097 30 096 35 103 37 095 32 098 80999 76879 24 102 25 093 33 094 32 098 32 098 76879 73256 21 092 22 097 23 082 26 097 25 092 73256 70002 15 103 15 095 14 111 21 070 22 101 70002 67018 15 123 12 116 9 119 10 055 15 081 67018 64257 15 107 11 128 5 145 3 220 5 040 64257 61600 15 057 6 118 4 146 4 231 2 245 61600 58851 9 016 3 080 5 087 2 154 3 163 58851 56030 10 230 3 163 1 264 3 089 5 094 56030 53363 7 187 8 173 9 231 4 292 7 023 53363 50973 13 070 8 116 8 187 9 244 10 342 50973 48835 18 039 6 037 6 035 3 195 8 003 48835 46891 15 030 6 012 8 005 11 048 12 063 46891 45098 13 045 16 044 11 011 13 010 16 049 45098 43427 14 062 20 052 11 025 8 024 10 049 43427 41858 15 068 18 045 12 052 8 065 12 080 41858 40377 14 077 20 054 15 046 13 060 16 075 40377 38975 15 092 17 060 17 050 17 049 18 059 38975 37616 16 101 18 068 18 067 15 052 19 060 37616 36236 17 098 20 074 19 078 13 068 16 071 36236 34804 17 088 23 087 20 086 15 090 13 084 34804 33325 16 075 28 087 22 090 19 104 13 100 33325 31783 16 070 26 077 23 088 22 100 18 108 31783 30168 16 081 18 075 23 081 22 088 24 105 30168 28484 15 091 15 085 19 080 22 082 27 096 28484 26736 12 069 15 091 15 092 20 085 26 090 26736 24927 12 075 15 111 17 116 18 093 23 091 24927 23060 16 102 22 122 22 115 19 104 26 099 23060 21131 22 117 27 118 23 108 25 109 33 101 21131 19131 31 123 27 117 24 109 25 113 33 103 19131 17096 33 122 23 126 23 115 23 116 25 109 17096 15127 25 118 15 137 18 116 18 117 17 111 15127 13324 16 107 10 127 12*118 10*115 9 104 13324 11710 11 096 7 111 5*115 5*112 4 051 11710 10266 10 091 7 121 2 106 3 102 5 354 10266 8974 9 072 8 127 0 050 2 018 7 338 8974 7817 8 015 5*117 1 333 3 340 9 323 7817 6786 7 356 3*358 2 324 5 336 11 303 6786 5871 3 272 3 348 3 324 6 335 13 287 5871 5058 7 232 4 347 4 325 6 335 17 276 5058 4327 10*228 4 345 4 326 7 334 20 269 4327 3677 8*215 4 346 5 328 7 335 21 264 3677 3132 6 198 5 346 5 330 7 335 21 261 3132 2713 6 195 5 347 5 330 7 335 20 259 2713 2423 6 194 5 347 5 331 7 335 18 258 2423 2247 5 194 5 348 5 331 7 336 15 257 2247 2146 5 192 4 349 5 331 6 336 10*254 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography