DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/31 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 64.5 - - 68.5 - - 71.6 - - 69.3 - - 66.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - -3 - - 37 - - -6 - - 2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 44 - - 45 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 2144 - - 2145 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 530 - - 2811 - - 3833 - - 3399 - - 2163 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 23 - - 54 - - 19 - - 22 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 2 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 134 - - 177 - - 190 - - 126 - - 220 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -1 - - -1 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -601 - - -931 - - -1475 - - -233 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2745 - - 3075 - - 3620 - - 2378 - - 2144 sfcLCL ODpotential -3345 - - -2597 - - -2627 - - -1527 - - -474 ODpotential blCL 5489 - - 4741 - - 4772 - - 3672 - - 2618 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 80 - - 290 - - 390 - - 780 - - 360 CAPE Temp@2m 64.5 - - 68.5 - - 71.6 - - 69.3 - - 66.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 59.5 - - 62.1 - - 62.7 - - 65.6 - - 65.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.8 - - 68.7 - - 71.0 - - 69.8 - - 66.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.9 - - 61.2 - - 61.4 - - 64.9 - - 65.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - -3 - - 37 - - -6 - - 2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 44 - - 45 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 100 - - 98 - - 100 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 13 - - 13 - - 14 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97194 56 276 59 277 59 275 55 272 58 278 97194 90039 40 280 36 275 42 272 42 275 41 286 90039 84537 28 270 22 273 22 266 28 276 26 298 84537 79949 11 265 13 272 16 267 14 287 19 301 79949 75958 13 299 9 292 11 254 7 274 14 286 75958 72402 12 290 10 282 3 237 4 235 10 260 72402 69187 16 274 16 249 10 265 5 264 9 253 69187 66229 21 244 20 228 15 239 13 257 13 253 66229 63469 20 240 17 233 19 243 23 252 20 246 63469 60792 23 255 28 244 26 238 26 229 24 238 60792 58035 36 262 29 238 29 244 27 251 24 258 58035 55197 46 257 48 256 44 263 51 269 36 269 55197 52527 64 263 74 260 81 259 81 255 71 258 52527 50184 88 268 87 261 88 255 86 247 80 249 50184 48084 100 268 93 266 90 257 82 253 67 253 48084 46161 109 270 102 268 99 263 101 268 91 268 46161 44398 115 273 108 267 107 267 115 265 96 263 44398 42765 119 275 109 268 110 268 112 264 86 256 42765 41227 117 275 107 269 104 267 104 264 86 249 41227 39771 111 274 103 271 96 266 97 265 79 246 39771 38391 98 271 96 271 88 266 88 262 73 244 38391 37052 98 271 88 269 84 264 83 260 69 240 37052 35689 95 272 83 268 77 261 81 259 63 237 35689 34273 90 271 76 264 70 261 78 260 57 238 34273 32809 88 271 77 266 69 257 74 259 53 239 32809 31284 84 271 80 273 71 251 70 255 54 253 31284 29688 78 271 75 273 67 251 67 250 54 266 29688 28022 73 271 71 269 61 245 67 247 45 265 28022 26285 68 270 67 268 54 240 71 246 51 259 26285 24482 61 269 59 267 46 241 70 244 58 248 24482 22616 48 265 48 257 41 234 60 236 60 241 22616 20680 39 247 43 245 35 226 50 221 56 233 20680 18672 40 239 36 238 35 226 43 217 51 225 18672 16631 35 242 29 223 34 223 36 217 42 218 16631 14668 30 236 28 219 31 219 31 222 36 212 14668 12887 28 227 27 214 30 218 28 224 37 213 12887 11308 24 213 24 209 27 217 27 226 34 213 11308 9908 20 199 21 200 24 216 24 221 30 209 9908 8661 15 194 18 191 20 210 21 216 27 207 8661 7550 12 194 16 181 18 201 18 206 23 207 7550 6561 10 197 14 173 16 193 15 199 19 207 6561 5686 10 193 13 173 12 181 13 195 16 208 5686 4910 11 185 12 177 8 172 10 188 14 214 4910 4213 12 178 11 180 6 175 9 178 13 216 4213 3595 13 173 10 181 7 184 8 171 13 214 3595 3078 11 164 8 180 4 185 8 146 10 217 3078 2681 10 149 6 178 3 187 7 134 7 217 2681 2407 10 135 5 176 3 188 7 130 5 218 2407 2240 7 133 4 177 3*188 5*129 4 217 2240 2144 4*134 4*177 2*190 4*126 3*220 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography