DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 81.3 - - 91.3 - - 95.9 - - 80.6 - - 77.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 33 - - 339 - - 321 - - -12 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 387 - - 5339 - - 8335 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 5856 - - 8203 - - 2129 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2487 - - 7439 - - 10435 - - 2146 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2793 - - 2947 - - 3130 - - 2242 - - 1613 Hgt.Variab. W* 99 - - 499 - - 568 - - 40 - - 24 W* B/S 52 - - 125 - - 43 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 11 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 307 - - 231 - - 061 - - 217 - - 168 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -5 - - -12 - - -7 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3088 - - -1721 - - -355 - - -1065 - - -282 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5575 - - 9160 - - 10790 - - 3212 - - 2427 sfcLCL ODpotential -6244 - - -3041 - - -954 - - -4250 - - -3989 ODpotential blCL 8731 - - 10480 - - 11389 - - 6396 - - 6134 blCL maxRH 82 - - 92 - - 96 - - 98 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 990 - - 610 - - 660 - - 3450 - - 3260 CAPE Temp@2m 81.3 - - 91.3 - - 95.9 - - 80.6 - - 77.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 64.0 - - 58.3 - - 55.7 - - 73.0 - - 73.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 80.8 - - 89.0 - - 93.5 - - 80.9 - - 78.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.6 - - 58.2 - - 55.6 - - 71.9 - - 72.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 33 - - 339 - - 321 - - -12 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 387 - - 5339 - - 8335 - - 46 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 28 - - 69 - - 84 - - 90 - - 93 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 11 - - 10 - - 19 - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98002 28 084 29 110 22 121 16 106 7 108 98002 90674 23 084 22 096 20 120 11 101 19 078 90674 85017 21 087 20 097 21 123 9 116 20 063 85017 80320 18 090 15 087 16 093 12 105 16 073 80320 76287 16 075 14 086 16 067 13 095 16 086 76287 72725 9 089 11 071 14 087 14 066 17 081 72725 69510 9 107 12 083 13 104 10 094 10 067 69510 66571 10 107 9 095 11 073 12 080 12 071 66571 63851 13 068 6 108 5 080 10 057 10 060 63851 61233 13 016 10 043 5 077 10 045 6 062 61233 58532 7 310 6 357 6 336 7 004 7 034 58532 55750 4 322 8 304 14 302 13 309 14 338 55750 53103 17 328 14 313 16 295 18 296 22 302 53103 50732 30 299 22 302 20 302 25 300 29 295 50732 48606 32 285 28 282 30 290 32 285 32 288 48606 46667 35 284 33 279 34 285 33 280 32 286 46667 44876 39 285 38 284 36 284 31 286 32 296 44876 43202 42 284 38 286 35 289 31 297 37 304 43202 41625 40 284 34 297 39 291 34 300 42 298 41625 40135 37 288 40 292 46 281 40 292 42 288 40135 38732 40 304 45 286 43 274 43 280 39 273 38732 37380 52 302 38 278 37 277 41 269 34 264 37380 36005 44 302 30 268 32 271 33 270 29 278 36005 34579 34 292 29 289 28 253 29 262 22 266 34579 33105 30 279 26 306 23 258 26 252 22 252 33105 31571 35 297 23 306 21 298 20 258 19 236 31571 29966 26 321 18 301 21 286 19 266 17 238 29966 28293 17 285 16 283 19 270 19 260 17 240 28293 26550 20 269 20 259 20 270 20 248 16 239 26550 24743 18 273 22 266 18 284 14 267 14 254 24743 22872 10 290 16 272 12 288 9 310 11 272 22872 20931 9 301 10 281 11 269 4 326 7 283 20931 18920 6 303 7 278 10 259 4 312 7 321 18920 16878 3 086 1 206 3 240 4 055 7 007 16878 14914 5 066 4 067 3 074 9 065 7 034 14914 13127 9 071 8 092 5 099 12 069 9 078 13127 11534 8 078 9 092 5*098 11 065 9 086 11534 10110 7 073 9 082 4*090 8 051 6 084 10110 8837 7 056 7 082 3 086 6 016 2 101 8837 7697 6 052 3*102 3 079 8 333 2 194 7697 6683 2 091 1*148 3 071 10 306 5 218 6683 5784 2 143 1 170 2 058 13 286 7 226 5784 4986 2 105 1 203 2 048 15 268 9 226 4986 4270 1 094 1 225 2 036 17 249 12 221 4270 3635 1 238 1 256 2 027 17 234 12 209 3635 3105 1 172 1 272 2 024 17 224 12 199 3105 2697 0*161 1 287 2 020 17 221 10 184 2697 2415 0*302 1 288 2 018 16 220 8 173 2415 2244 0 305 1 287 2 017 14*218 6 170 2244 2145 0 314 1 288 2 016 11*217 4*168 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography