DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 75.4 - - 82.6 - - - - - 73.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 278 - - 214 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2789 - - 4641 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3827 - - 5110 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4889 - - 6741 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 869 - - 1681 - - - - - 2064 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 377 - - 410 - - - - - 13 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 28 - - 18 - - - - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - 133 - - 126 - - - - - 337 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 4 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - 3 - - - - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -6625 - - -5650 - - - - - -6156 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11514 - - 12392 - - - - - 8300 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13826 - - -10042 - - - - - -11527 ODpotential blCL - - - 18715 - - 16783 - - - - - 13671 blCL maxRH - - - 88 - - 90 - - - - - 93 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - - - - 60 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 75.4 - - 82.6 - - - - - 73.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 32.7 - - 35.7 - - - - - 44.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 73.8 - - 81.0 - - - - - 73.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 32.2 - - 35.2 - - - - - 44.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 278 - - 214 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2789 - - 4641 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 54 - - 58 - - - - - 73 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 5 - - - - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97815 29 292 25 283 30 289 97815 90545 19 271 23 257 22 299 90545 84926 17 246 18 259 17 281 84926 80236 12 260 10 272 10 264 80236 76195 11 266 11 280 8 307 76195 72643 11 232 14 266 13 339 72643 69451 4 101 8 211 7 308 69451 66536 3 128 5 178 4 253 66536 63853 2 164 2 293 4 195 63853 61263 9 275 8 275 6 315 61263 58584 5 251 4 289 8 215 58584 55811 16 283 19 305 11 261 55811 53165 31 266 30 281 24 287 53165 50786 34 270 31 275 28 289 50786 48631 40 274 35 275 36 281 48631 46652 45 270 38 273 42 272 46652 44817 50 269 41 273 44 271 44817 43105 55 269 47 271 47 275 43105 41496 58 263 57 266 52 275 41496 39982 60 259 63 263 57 272 39982 38552 61 256 65 259 60 267 38552 37172 62 253 66 254 61 262 37172 35775 61 248 65 249 59 258 35775 34331 59 241 60 243 57 254 34331 32845 51 236 50 241 57 248 32845 31302 37 228 33 236 56 243 31302 29698 29 213 29 228 46 241 29698 28038 28 201 30 222 25 235 28038 26314 23 198 27 207 24 228 26314 24520 23 204 24 189 27 217 24520 22665 21 209 23 174 31 208 22665 20743 19 190 28 179 31 203 20743 18743 21 177 26 189 29 208 18743 16709 19 184 25 205 26 214 16709 14750 16 201 20 212 23 213 14750 12962 14 215 11 209 20 211 12962 11366 11 206 9 229 18 179 11366 9949 7 153 5 212 15 160 9949 8692 7 161 7 187 16 153 8692 7574 12 171 12*158 21 146 7574 6580 19 161 16*135 23 137 6580 5701 27 141 19 128 22 130 5701 4922 30*133 19 127 18 119 4922 4222 30*132 19 125 12 098 4222 3601 30 132 19 125 9 046 3601 3082 30 133 18 124 12 001 3082 2683 29 133 18 123 14 346 2683 2408 27 133 17 122 14 340 2408 2240 25 133 16 122 12 338 2240 2144 19 133 13 122 9*337 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography