DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 09/29 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.7 - - 62.5 - - 66.4 - - 67.8 - - 64.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 4 - - 48 - - 83 - - 18 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit 768 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top 785 - - 785 - - 785 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1189 - - 2320 - - 3145 - - 3615 - - 2809 Hgt.Variab. W* 28 - - 64 - - 77 - - 49 - - 6 W* B/S 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 311 - - 003 - - 354 - - 012 - - 292 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -649 - - -1507 - - -1612 - - -431 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 785 - - 1434 - - 2292 - - 2398 - - 1217 sfcLCL ODpotential -338 - - -716 - - -1496 - - -1850 - - -1360 ODpotential blCL 1123 - - 1501 - - 2281 - - 2636 - - 2146 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 99 - - 99 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 20 - - 90 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m 58.7 - - 62.5 - - 66.4 - - 67.8 - - 64.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.0 - - 58.9 - - 59.0 - - 60.0 - - 61.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.4 - - 61.7 - - 65.3 - - 67.2 - - 64.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.0 - - 58.6 - - 58.4 - - 59.4 - - 61.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 4 - - 48 - - 83 - - 18 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 101 - - 95 - - 95 - - 98 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98045 23 248 22 240 26 223 27 243 30 248 98045 90706 22 258 21 226 24 239 26 239 27 255 90706 85052 21 271 14 242 21 246 24 242 20 262 85052 80353 12 247 15 266 15 248 19 256 16 283 80353 76329 2 083 7 278 8 233 11 270 10 299 76329 72785 12 347 8 355 4 295 4 289 8 328 72785 69565 9 290 9 009 3 295 4 289 14 325 69565 66610 8 263 8 330 2 314 5 253 11 305 66610 63879 11 275 8 297 4 278 6 223 8 295 63879 61231 14 263 12 273 10 265 14 260 14 282 61231 58463 17 256 14 253 14 263 16 252 15 262 58463 55591 21 253 19 262 20 272 22 269 24 278 55591 52854 29 260 22 256 26 261 27 255 27 267 52854 50379 32 251 26 257 24 256 23 263 25 261 50379 48138 30 241 29 254 31 273 29 274 25 264 48138 46091 32 246 34 253 41 264 38 274 31 278 46091 44214 42 243 39 247 43 250 42 268 40 279 44214 42482 42 232 39 236 41 246 40 267 41 280 42482 40872 38 228 34 236 41 250 40 271 43 280 40872 39365 38 232 38 242 42 251 43 271 40 284 39365 37947 38 235 42 241 43 252 43 271 39 293 37947 36581 40 237 42 239 44 252 42 273 42 300 36581 35195 43 236 42 241 43 250 43 282 46 305 35195 33761 43 233 41 239 41 251 46 294 49 311 33761 32284 38 226 35 236 36 258 48 298 50 314 32284 30752 29 226 31 238 36 272 47 298 48 311 30752 29153 21 243 29 238 38 274 46 296 41 306 29153 27482 23 246 26 236 37 270 44 291 36 305 27482 25732 24 240 24 237 35 266 41 287 34 308 25732 23900 22 233 22 235 33 259 39 283 30 311 23900 21989 20 227 22 237 30 249 36 278 27 310 21989 19993 18 220 21 245 27 246 32 274 26 307 19993 17908 17 228 19 250 21 254 26 276 24 305 17908 15781 18 232 18 249 15 260 16 274 21 309 15781 13731 19 231 17 250 12 261 10 280 16 311 13731 11867 14 231 12 248 8 264 9 291 14 314 11867 10214 6 216 5 222 5 234 8 296 12 316 10214 8748 3 227 3 177 4 231 9 302 12 321 8748 7445 4 288 2 017 1 349 8 312 12 326 7445 6287 5 295 7 359 4 003 8 316 14 329 6287 5261 4 283 8 351 7 000 9 330 13 339 5261 4361 1 160 7 354 9 006 10 346 11 013 4361 3571 2 052 8 000 10 359 10 355 12 023 3571 2865 6 002 9 002 10 357 10 358 12 018 2865 2242 7 005 8 004 10 355 9 004 11 014 2242 1721 7 359 7 003 10 355 9 007 9 012 1721 1322 6 342 6 004 9 354 8 009 7 007 1322 1047 5 325 6 005 8 354 8 011 5 000 1047 881 3*315 5 005 8 354 7*012 3*345 881 786 2*311 4*003 6*354 5*012 1*292 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography