DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/25 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 50.9 - - 51.0 - - 51.5 - - 52.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 1 - - -33 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1208 - - 965 - - 803 - - 842 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 30 - - 30 - - 24 - - 14 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 8 BL Wind Direction - - - 179 - - 157 - - 141 - - 165 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - -3 - - -4 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2665 - - -1117 - - -1063 - - -137 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3449 - - 1901 - - 1847 - - 922 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7626 - - -6209 - - -7267 - - -5168 ODpotential blCL - - - 8410 - - 6993 - - 8051 - - 5953 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 93 - - 94 maxRH CAPE - - - 30 - - 20 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 50.9 - - 51.0 - - 51.5 - - 52.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.8 - - 45.6 - - 46.2 - - 50.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 50.7 - - 50.8 - - 52.4 - - 52.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 38.8 - - 45.1 - - 45.7 - - 50.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 1 - - -33 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 101 - - 73 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95894 29 285 26 281 35 271 29 295 95894 88915 17 270 24 274 25 299 19 300 88915 83520 9 279 19 289 16 300 12 323 83520 79046 4 314 13 297 14 292 11 320 79046 75158 7 310 10 275 15 290 12 291 75158 71691 12 297 12 246 14 289 13 282 71691 68548 18 283 15 268 16 264 13 274 68548 65651 20 279 19 273 19 270 20 252 65651 62949 25 284 29 275 27 275 24 257 62949 60333 36 277 37 264 36 269 30 269 60333 57611 42 268 45 262 44 263 42 259 57611 54771 51 267 46 259 48 253 50 257 54771 52037 52 269 45 270 43 252 53 258 52037 49570 64 274 48 278 46 257 48 250 49570 47359 70 267 56 275 52 257 47 246 47359 45355 67 254 63 259 56 254 59 247 45355 43523 54 245 63 240 62 246 63 244 43523 41833 50 260 56 249 64 245 57 247 41833 40259 72 269 70 254 67 253 58 252 40259 38787 83 261 86 249 76 249 63 249 38787 37404 80 250 88 244 85 237 69 246 37404 36075 77 249 86 243 86 236 74 244 36075 34730 77 249 85 239 87 238 74 240 34730 33336 76 250 83 239 88 241 72 238 33336 31890 74 249 81 242 86 242 68 239 31890 30379 69 245 76 240 79 240 63 245 30379 28792 62 247 72 236 73 240 60 250 28792 27128 60 250 64 236 67 239 59 250 27128 25386 60 247 58 238 58 235 54 249 25386 23569 50 242 54 237 49 235 51 245 23569 21680 35 257 46 235 40 239 48 243 21680 19710 33 256 38 242 41 241 48 245 19710 17656 34 242 37 243 37 243 50 250 17656 15563 41 243 43 243 37 244 49 253 15563 13547 46 245 48 239 43 243 46 253 13547 11710 46 237 45 233 49 244 44 254 11710 10074 35 229 41 236 49 247 43 255 10074 8623 25 222 41 237 48 238 41 255 8623 7334 20 216 39 233 45 222 39 254 7334 6192 22 221 40 226 43 213 39 247 6192 5182 31 218 43 216 46 210 41 234 5182 4294 39 217 44 208 46 207 45 221 4294 3513 39 214 40 200 43 200 45 212 3513 2817 35 211 35 195 38 189 41 203 2817 2204 29 204 29 190 33 175 36 193 2204 1695 23 197 24 180 27 163 30 186 1695 1306 18 188 18 169 22 155 23 176 1306 1039 14 183 14 162 17 149 18 170 1039 877 12 181 12 160 13 146 14*168 877 785 8*179 8*157 7*141 8*165 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography