DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/25 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 52.0 - - 61.4 - - 62.1 - - 50.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 107 - - 154 - - 10 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 2851 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 2233 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 3560 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1562 - - 1058 - - 4024 - - 146 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 82 - - 312 - - 40 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 19 - - 10 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 6 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 359 - - 196 - - 154 - - 159 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2255 - - -2010 - - -4700 - - -1373 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3039 - - 5570 - - 5485 - - 2157 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10944 - - -9548 - - -11507 - - -10406 ODpotential blCL - - - 11728 - - 13108 - - 12292 - - 11190 blCL maxRH - - - 80 - - 62 - - 62 - - 65 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 52.0 - - 61.4 - - 62.1 - - 50.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 42.1 - - 40.3 - - 41.3 - - 44.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 50.7 - - 59.8 - - 61.7 - - 53.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 41.5 - - 39.3 - - 40.5 - - 44.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 107 - - 154 - - 10 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 2851 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 18 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97249 18 241 28 260 31 273 18 251 97249 90034 5 279 10 242 16 267 13 287 90034 84491 5 035 0 291 4 251 5 291 84491 79892 5 111 6 033 4 128 6 157 79892 75927 10 132 6 045 3 087 6 116 75927 72424 11 099 6 113 3 065 6 037 72424 69263 8 058 8 110 4 077 6 354 69263 66356 5 028 7 113 3 148 6 314 66356 63652 6 021 3 112 3 193 7 304 63652 61026 10 006 1 326 4 221 9 280 61026 58281 17 341 7 342 3 227 12 261 58281 55427 22 328 11 309 9 299 12 269 55427 52717 23 324 16 278 20 292 23 298 52717 50292 20 344 11 319 18 290 23 295 50292 48110 29 347 24 344 18 336 18 320 48110 46113 37 343 37 339 29 344 29 331 46113 44271 41 344 41 334 35 341 35 330 44271 42562 43 002 41 340 37 338 37 331 42562 40970 52 011 41 351 38 340 35 334 40970 39481 60 009 43 359 40 346 34 344 39481 38081 63 006 50 003 45 352 42 354 38081 36732 63 005 58 002 53 354 56 353 36732 35360 65 009 64 359 62 355 63 351 35360 33933 69 007 66 356 66 354 64 351 33933 32454 70 004 67 356 64 351 61 354 32454 30906 69 005 66 359 60 352 57 355 30906 29277 67 010 64 004 59 357 54 356 29277 27567 61 015 62 008 58 003 53 001 27567 25774 48 017 52 012 56 009 52 013 25774 23901 32 026 41 015 46 013 46 021 23901 21962 21 036 26 022 34 015 33 023 21962 19954 13 056 19 031 22 018 21 021 19954 17866 10 058 9 037 13 019 15 015 17866 15734 10 067 5 075 6 027 8 031 15734 13678 7 066 5 067 5 036 5 053 13678 11804 5 075 4 038 6 018 4 052 11804 10139 3 095 3 128 2 289 1 334 10139 8663 4 155 8 173 6 218 3 245 8663 7358 4 172 9 179 9 209 5 232 7358 6207 5 199 6 201 8 213 5 226 6207 5193 8 203 9 231 8 230 7 233 5193 4306 11 187 9*222 7 217 9 233 4306 3525 13 159 7*203 6 202 9 230 3525 2828 9 150 7 199 5 184 8 217 2828 2213 3 158 6 196 5 174 9 191 2213 1702 1 292 6 194 5 167 11 177 1702 1310 1 346 5 191 5 161 12 170 1310 1040 1 351 5 188 5 158 11 166 1040 878 1 353 4 188 4 157 8 164 878 784 1*359 4 187 3*154 4*159 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography