DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/07 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 36.6 - - 41.3 - - 39.8 - - 31.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 53 - - 119 - - 8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 767 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 784 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2608 - - 3421 - - 2474 - - 311 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 65 - - 85 - - 35 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction - - - 152 - - 152 - - 117 - - 137 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -2 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1584 - - -2079 - - -1382 - - -104 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2367 - - 2863 - - 2165 - - 887 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2298 - - -2134 - - -2323 - - -4298 ODpotential blCL - - - 3081 - - 2918 - - 3106 - - 5081 blCL maxRH - - - 96 - - 93 - - 90 - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 36.6 - - 41.3 - - 39.8 - - 31.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 29.3 - - 31.6 - - 33.3 - - 31.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 35.8 - - 40.1 - - 39.5 - - 33.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 28.6 - - 30.8 - - 32.8 - - 32.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 53 - - 119 - - 8 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 86 - - 73 - - 58 - - 67 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96146 8 217 6 288 9 280 3 216 96146 88903 8 242 12 254 16 263 14 282 88903 83317 11 233 18 226 18 248 20 293 83317 78693 21 264 15 249 26 242 31 264 78693 74735 28 257 24 259 26 249 34 254 74735 71248 28 256 27 249 30 252 30 251 71248 68075 29 250 28 251 33 254 29 250 68075 65132 33 258 35 258 39 257 36 262 65132 62392 51 259 45 261 42 258 41 267 62392 59732 58 253 52 258 45 259 45 259 59732 56945 65 258 58 258 53 255 56 245 56945 54037 74 256 73 251 74 258 67 251 54037 51273 84 252 85 246 94 254 90 256 51273 48801 93 250 97 249 101 254 94 253 48801 46577 109 249 104 253 109 254 101 257 46577 44561 113 252 120 258 114 255 117 254 44561 42718 124 254 133 258 123 255 125 253 42718 41014 132 252 136 253 136 253 130 252 41014 39430 132 248 139 249 144 247 137 247 39430 37951 131 252 137 244 140 242 138 243 37951 36564 138 253 131 242 137 243 134 243 36564 35229 140 251 133 247 139 246 136 244 35229 33877 140 250 138 250 144 247 139 244 33877 32479 138 249 138 248 143 247 134 244 32479 31037 130 250 133 246 137 248 126 244 31037 29536 118 248 124 245 128 247 119 244 29536 27962 113 248 115 244 119 247 111 243 27962 26315 114 249 114 244 114 248 106 246 26315 24593 113 248 117 247 113 249 102 251 24593 22801 109 249 109 254 105 252 92 254 22801 20952 93 253 79 255 81 255 67 260 20952 19042 71 258 66 256 64 257 51 264 19042 17053 56 260 58 256 54 260 45 263 17053 15018 47 256 49 254 47 263 43 262 15018 13056 40 251 44 255 44 270 41 266 13056 11275 36 253 39 258 42 274 39 277 11275 9701 34 256 33 265 36 276 33 283 9701 8308 32 256 31 272 30 281 27 287 8308 7072 30 253 30 272 28 284 24 291 7072 5977 26 246 27 266 24 280 23 293 5977 5010 21 232 22 253 17 278 21 288 5010 4160 16 217 15 233 12 279 18 285 4160 3412 12 200 9 205 9 282 15 294 3412 2743 9 175 7 178 3 284 13 312 2743 2153 9 153 7 168 3 123 11 323 2153 1661 9 153 6 162 5 120 6 323 1661 1285 8 153 6 158 6 118 3 204 1285 1027 7 153 6 155 6 118 6 174 1027 872 6 152 5*154 5 117 5 167 872 783 5*152 5*152 4*117 1*137 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography