DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/23 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.3 - - 57.4 - - 60.2 - - 57.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 10 - - 40 - - 11 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1912 - - 2588 - - 3975 - - 3883 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 44 - - 61 - - 44 - - 16 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 028 - - 047 - - 058 - - 028 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1864 - - -1629 - - -1972 - - -854 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2650 - - 2414 - - 2757 - - 1639 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10881 - - -1812 - - -2205 - - -1953 ODpotential blCL - - - 11666 - - 2597 - - 2990 - - 2738 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 96 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.3 - - 57.4 - - 60.2 - - 57.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 45.8 - - 50.0 - - 51.2 - - 53.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 53.8 - - 56.9 - - 59.9 - - 58.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 44.8 - - 49.3 - - 50.4 - - 52.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 10 - - 40 - - 11 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 100 - - 101 - - 86 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 8 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98552 11 135 3 147 8 199 3 223 98552 91160 11 122 8 187 10 237 5 305 91160 85440 9 103 8 151 6 198 3 320 85440 80684 6 108 5 102 3 089 3 117 80684 76586 1 161 3 091 2 151 1 315 76586 72981 2 193 3 147 3 236 5 321 72981 69732 4 098 5 099 5 237 6 354 69732 66752 8 353 4 354 3 337 11 339 66752 63998 7 327 5 324 7 330 8 312 63998 61337 8 318 9 309 13 326 10 327 61337 58566 8 300 11 290 15 284 15 296 58566 55689 13 293 10 254 15 257 15 258 55689 52937 17 286 15 264 16 271 13 265 52937 50464 28 276 24 267 22 273 18 271 50464 48252 31 248 28 256 25 269 24 274 48252 46238 30 238 31 249 30 260 33 267 46238 44386 31 245 37 247 34 245 32 249 44386 42668 40 243 41 242 35 241 31 241 42668 41064 48 231 46 241 39 242 33 239 41064 39561 55 226 51 233 45 239 37 239 39561 38150 58 225 50 227 46 230 44 231 38150 36787 59 224 49 222 44 228 45 221 36787 35402 57 221 50 217 44 224 43 220 35402 33970 54 215 48 214 44 220 41 220 33970 32492 52 212 47 213 41 220 37 222 32492 30951 52 214 46 214 39 222 36 225 30951 29334 51 218 42 220 33 225 33 228 29334 27636 45 225 35 231 29 232 25 233 27636 25856 34 238 29 241 24 243 17 236 25856 23995 23 252 25 253 21 258 11 242 23995 22056 14 252 16 263 15 276 4 210 22056 20034 13 266 10 267 5 291 5 226 20034 17927 11 286 4 304 2 084 2 136 17927 15777 8 320 2 350 3 021 5 086 15777 13702 7 020 5 356 8 021 3 052 13702 11814 10 043 8 040 8 032 8 036 11814 10139 10 048 5 042 6 024 9 049 10139 8654 7 048 4 014 7 030 8 051 8654 7341 6 028 7 008 8 049 12 051 7341 6189 6 033 13 036 12 062 15 054 6189 5183 11 040 15 050 18 059 22 074 5183 4303 13 044 16 061 18 060 26 073 4303 3526 15 061 20 065 18 060 26 070 3526 2832 19 060 17 059 18 060 26 066 2832 2218 17 050 13 051 17 060 24 062 2218 1706 13 036 12 050 16 060 20 058 1706 1312 12 033 11 049 14 060 16 052 1312 1042 10 031 10 048 13 059 11 043 1042 879 9*030 9*049 10 059 8*038 879 785 6*028 6*047 7*058 4*028 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography