DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/22 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 48.6 - - 49.9 - - 51.0 - - 47.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 18 - - 28 - - -3 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1580 - - 2306 - - 2922 - - 3487 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 47 - - 55 - - 22 - - 21 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 350 - - 358 - - 348 - - 353 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -200 - - -897 - - -951 - - -853 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 984 - - 1682 - - 1735 - - 1637 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -382 - - -1091 - - -1323 - - -1510 ODpotential blCL - - - 1166 - - 1875 - - 2107 - - 2294 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 48.6 - - 49.9 - - 51.0 - - 47.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 47.0 - - 45.3 - - 46.2 - - 43.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.1 - - 49.2 - - 50.9 - - 48.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 46.7 - - 44.6 - - 45.6 - - 43.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 18 - - 28 - - -3 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 101 - - 99 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95855 38 256 29 278 32 259 35 251 95855 88850 24 294 21 288 24 291 22 293 88850 83437 11 244 14 251 18 273 13 286 83437 78911 14 305 14 284 21 285 21 309 78911 74992 25 287 21 280 28 286 28 297 74992 71548 14 262 17 248 20 270 21 281 71548 68432 14 292 15 279 16 279 16 285 68432 65549 35 299 30 294 26 293 24 291 65549 62866 40 285 34 282 34 286 33 280 62866 60261 35 288 35 272 39 270 35 274 60261 57531 43 284 40 265 38 268 38 272 57531 54686 49 267 45 269 43 261 47 255 54686 51954 47 258 47 266 44 259 50 257 51954 49476 44 262 49 266 57 265 58 262 49476 47233 50 267 60 261 65 257 62 257 47233 45182 56 263 64 255 65 251 66 254 45182 43301 62 263 67 258 64 251 65 253 43301 41569 68 268 74 259 64 256 60 259 41569 39966 77 268 77 257 71 262 67 265 39966 38469 84 262 80 254 74 260 64 263 38469 37069 88 254 77 254 68 260 62 266 37069 35729 85 250 70 255 66 261 59 266 35729 34383 78 250 67 255 59 262 47 261 34383 33002 71 252 57 267 50 277 37 272 33002 31583 70 254 54 273 49 274 35 282 31583 30100 73 251 44 276 45 271 35 288 30100 28539 72 247 37 284 41 274 35 286 28539 26898 66 248 34 297 37 276 32 281 26898 25174 58 249 34 308 35 277 31 270 25174 23368 59 249 36 313 34 278 33 259 23368 21485 60 248 35 315 34 280 35 263 21485 19520 60 245 31 318 32 283 36 266 19520 17466 58 244 27 308 29 282 33 260 17466 15364 58 247 30 291 27 275 30 260 15364 13337 59 256 38 283 28 278 27 268 13337 11498 55 265 39 274 27 283 26 273 11498 9873 41 275 34 262 27 285 24 275 9873 8441 31 285 30 271 29 282 19 277 8441 7176 27 289 30 288 27 282 18 285 7176 6058 27 283 28 293 25 290 19 291 6058 5073 25 276 20 292 22 297 19 292 5073 4212 18 273 12 301 18 302 17 297 4212 3456 9 300 13 338 14 309 16 313 3456 2780 12 349 14 350 11 319 16 326 2780 2182 17 355 13 354 8 330 17 334 2182 1683 17 354 10 356 7 338 16 340 1683 1299 15 352 9 357 7 341 15 346 1299 1036 13 351 8 357 6 345 12 350 1036 876 11 350 7 357 5 346 9 352 876 784 8*350 5*358 3*348 5*353 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography