DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 50.7 - - 51.8 - - 48.4 - - 41.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 79 - - 154 - - 10 - - -39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 4947 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 3783 - - 768 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 5656 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 5150 - - 1948 - - 6926 - - 5718 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 77 - - 379 - - 41 - - 15 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 14 - - 37 - - 16 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 300 - - 294 - - 300 - - 296 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 24 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 21 - - 5 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3148 - - -77 - - -6115 - - -4797 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3932 - - 5733 - - 6899 - - 5581 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3547 - - -1255 - - -11679 - - -11681 ODpotential blCL - - - 4331 - - 6911 - - 12463 - - 12465 blCL maxRH - - - 75 - - 72 - - 68 - - 70 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 50.7 - - 51.8 - - 48.4 - - 41.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 35.9 - - 29.0 - - 20.4 - - 20.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 50.0 - - 50.8 - - 48.0 - - 43.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 34.8 - - 28.0 - - 19.9 - - 19.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 79 - - 154 - - 10 - - -39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 4947 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95619 81 241 75 245 70 247 76 238 95619 88647 55 255 64 259 61 259 60 255 88647 83304 45 254 45 253 52 255 43 266 83304 78818 33 237 31 233 37 247 29 258 78818 74851 30 265 32 259 35 263 34 269 74851 71331 40 279 37 277 39 268 45 279 71331 68190 27 268 27 284 31 270 37 276 68190 65291 26 207 13 260 12 262 27 260 65291 62548 11 153 7 143 13 175 25 263 62548 59879 29 296 5 284 34 151 13 182 59879 57075 74 292 64 294 35 277 40 289 57075 54157 83 286 90 288 87 288 84 290 54157 51410 83 284 93 280 93 283 89 285 51410 48945 85 284 92 277 93 279 90 286 48945 46735 92 285 92 279 93 281 93 285 46735 44725 99 283 97 280 96 284 94 284 44725 42875 102 276 100 277 99 282 97 281 42875 41163 102 270 99 273 100 280 98 278 41163 39578 97 265 95 270 100 281 99 281 39578 38102 92 266 92 272 106 285 105 286 38102 36719 89 272 95 278 118 287 113 287 36719 35384 95 279 105 283 127 285 117 283 35384 34026 111 282 115 284 130 282 120 279 34026 32617 126 282 122 285 131 280 121 278 32617 31156 134 280 126 284 132 281 122 280 31156 29629 135 278 127 284 133 284 125 283 29629 28023 133 276 125 283 135 288 127 285 28023 26340 129 275 119 282 136 290 128 284 26340 24577 120 276 110 282 131 292 126 285 24577 22741 107 275 100 283 120 293 121 288 22741 20845 91 274 93 283 105 293 113 293 20845 18888 72 274 85 281 92 292 102 296 18888 16878 57 272 80 278 82 292 89 297 16878 14857 55 271 79 276 76 295 78 299 14857 12920 56 273 76 277 70 296 73 303 12920 11157 55 277 68 279 66 297 68 304 11157 9593 54 281 61 281 61 295 62 302 9593 8217 54 285 53 284 52 292 57 297 8217 7008 53 289 45 288 45 294 53 293 7008 5938 49 292 43*291 44 296 49 295 5938 4991 45 295 42*292 43 297 47 298 4991 4154 41 297 41 293 42 298 45 299 4154 3413 37 298 40 294 41 298 42 300 3413 2748 35 299 39 294 39 299 39 301 2748 2160 33 299 37 295 38 300 34 302 2160 1668 31 300 36 295 35 300 28 301 1668 1292 28 300 34 295 32 300 23 301 1292 1031 24 300 30 295 28 300 17 299 1031 874 21 301 26 295 23 300 14*298 874 784 14*300 18 295 16*300 7*296 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography