DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/13 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 32.2 - - 43.8 - - 43.1 - - 36.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 9 - - 129 - - -6 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2448 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 1841 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 3157 - - 784 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 594 - - 1212 - - 3678 - - 1659 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 36 - - 278 - - 18 - - 14 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 5 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 10 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 255 - - 258 - - 315 - - 351 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1617 - - -1430 - - -3727 - - -1213 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2400 - - 4587 - - 4511 - - 1996 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8829 - - -7656 - - -10312 - - -4178 ODpotential blCL - - - 9612 - - 10813 - - 11096 - - 4961 blCL maxRH - - - 72 - - 74 - - 88 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 32.2 - - 43.8 - - 43.1 - - 36.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 24.8 - - 26.6 - - 26.2 - - 30.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 31.9 - - 42.6 - - 43.1 - - 36.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 24.4 - - 25.7 - - 25.8 - - 30.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 9 - - 129 - - -6 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2448 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 53 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95504 87 240 96 240 115 243 115 244 95504 88443 73 245 86 244 83 250 82 249 88443 83014 64 244 72 241 68 251 71 250 83014 78469 63 249 60 248 58 255 60 249 78469 74501 61 258 60 256 56 258 55 257 74501 70974 65 262 64 261 56 255 54 260 70974 67777 66 259 64 266 54 259 50 261 67777 64819 62 256 64 262 56 264 50 265 64819 62067 60 256 63 251 60 262 56 263 62067 59403 57 256 59 244 62 256 59 257 59403 56625 54 257 56 247 61 252 63 258 56625 53738 59 264 62 258 67 255 68 257 53738 50983 71 266 72 261 73 254 75 255 50983 48512 83 267 82 264 75 260 80 253 48512 46311 95 262 95 264 92 262 92 256 46311 44330 99 256 109 256 107 253 105 250 44330 42532 97 258 108 252 106 251 101 248 42532 40889 103 264 107 259 104 260 105 259 40889 39379 110 266 117 265 118 264 124 264 39379 37971 116 267 124 263 125 259 128 257 37971 36638 121 265 123 260 124 256 124 250 36638 35344 122 263 121 260 124 253 122 248 35344 34024 116 261 120 261 123 252 122 248 34024 32648 110 260 119 262 121 253 120 249 32648 31221 108 260 118 261 119 255 116 247 31221 29728 107 261 117 262 115 257 112 247 29728 28156 104 261 113 263 111 257 110 247 28156 26505 100 261 106 262 108 255 108 248 26505 24773 97 260 100 260 104 252 107 249 24773 22964 96 260 96 260 100 252 102 251 22964 21087 93 262 93 263 95 256 96 253 21087 19141 89 262 91 267 90 262 89 255 19141 17120 84 261 83 268 84 263 85 253 17120 15061 76 258 72 264 78 256 86 250 15061 13078 63 256 61 257 67 248 85 248 13078 11277 51 258 53 253 57 246 76 248 11277 9684 44 260 46 255 54 247 67 245 9684 8277 40 259 42 258 48 247 58 239 8277 7037 37 257 40 262 39 248 43 236 7037 5944 34 256 36 265 30 251 28 226 5944 4981 30 257 29 264 21 247 21 213 4981 4134 26 260 19 258 13 246 15 224 4134 3390 22 264 12*255 9 265 14 248 3390 2727 17 263 11*256 8 282 15 271 2727 2142 13 259 11 257 9 295 14 291 2142 1656 11 252 10 258 9 303 12 311 1656 1284 11 249 9 259 9 308 9 329 1284 1028 9 251 9 259 8 310 7 339 1028 872 5 253 8 260 7*312 6 343 872 783 4*255 6 260 5*315 3*351 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography