DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 33.5 - - 34.1 - - 31.5 - - 27.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 20 - - 103 - - 47 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2844 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 1977 - - 766 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 3553 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3605 - - 1479 - - 4773 - - 3723 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 48 - - 272 - - 62 - - 18 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 12 - - 9 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 326 - - 319 - - 311 - - 306 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - 5 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1234 - - -212 - - -3521 - - -2550 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2017 - - 3765 - - 4304 - - 3333 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1376 - - -1439 - - -3876 - - -3463 ODpotential blCL - - - 2159 - - 4992 - - 4659 - - 4246 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 98 - - 88 - - 88 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 33.5 - - 34.1 - - 31.5 - - 27.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 27.6 - - 20.4 - - 15.4 - - 15.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 32.9 - - 33.1 - - 30.9 - - 27.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 26.9 - - 19.5 - - 14.5 - - 14.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 20 - - 103 - - 47 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 2844 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 93 - - 52 - - 53 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95992 17 016 22 011 23 016 11 003 95992 89039 14 352 18 003 16 002 7 342 89039 83605 15 013 11 344 9 003 11 289 83605 79037 13 315 9 287 14 288 10 271 79037 75061 12 255 10 236 21 254 21 278 75061 71546 23 284 12 236 19 243 23 260 71546 68344 33 273 28 257 24 258 25 263 68344 65366 40 250 37 248 40 261 39 264 65366 62600 37 240 38 241 46 243 55 252 62600 59931 36 246 40 236 45 241 57 237 59931 57117 48 251 43 244 53 235 54 228 57117 54133 69 245 70 247 57 229 57 238 54133 51257 83 239 82 239 68 242 77 245 51257 48697 96 234 85 235 86 240 86 232 48697 46436 105 227 96 236 91 234 70 224 46436 44379 112 226 107 233 88 232 66 230 44379 42478 117 225 113 229 97 229 80 229 42478 40717 122 225 123 225 107 224 87 225 40717 39083 129 224 129 220 112 219 85 220 39083 37560 135 223 131 218 113 216 82 219 37560 36134 143 223 135 218 116 212 87 222 36134 34767 156 226 143 219 124 207 99 220 34767 33386 167 226 153 220 132 205 106 214 33386 31960 172 228 159 218 132 204 103 212 31960 30495 176 228 147 213 125 202 95 215 30495 28986 175 226 139 211 123 202 87 217 28986 27427 162 223 136 207 124 203 80 217 27427 25812 132 216 129 204 125 204 73 218 25812 24126 117 212 121 207 126 205 64 219 24126 22367 114 208 113 214 122 204 53 226 22367 20533 114 213 110 207 110 203 49 228 20533 18616 118 226 102 200 102 203 47 230 18616 16625 99 228 94 203 94 208 43 237 16625 14617 83 231 99 216 68 229 37 247 14617 12699 64 230 84 234 39 246 31 252 12699 10959 53 227 45 239 26 242 25 253 10959 9416 47 232 34 236 28 237 24 250 9416 8053 34 228 29 232 26 231 29 241 8053 6853 23 210 22 222 20 219 32 227 6853 5796 17 203 10 214 12 236 22 237 5796 4865 7 221 6 268 11 285 18 262 4865 4049 10 285 10*311 14 304 20 287 4049 3329 11 306 12*318 15 307 21 297 3329 2684 11 313 13 319 15 308 22 300 2684 2114 11 316 13 319 15 310 21 302 2114 1639 10 321 13 319 15 310 20 304 1639 1274 9 324 12 320 15 310 17 306 1274 1022 8 325 12 320 14 310 14 306 1022 870 7*325 11 320 12*311 11*306 870 783 6*326 8 321 9*311 7*306 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography