DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 05/21 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0958z - - 1330z - - 1558z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.3 - - 72.6 - - 76.9 - - 77.7 - - 73.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 33 - - 163 - - 189 - - 34 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 2228 - - 3269 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit 767 - - 1851 - - 2675 - - 768 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top 783 - - 2937 - - 3978 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1119 - - 1065 - - 1293 - - 5363 - - 3425 Hgt.Variab. W* 57 - - 300 - - 360 - - 62 - - 24 W* B/S 2 - - 6 - - 12 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 9 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 056 - - 091 - - 121 - - 129 - - 148 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -3 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1198 - - -120 - - 312 - - -2588 - - -1322 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1981 - - 3057 - - 3666 - - 3372 - - 2106 sfcLCL ODpotential -4929 - - -1986 - - -1237 - - -2852 - - -2195 ODpotential blCL 5712 - - 4923 - - 5215 - - 3636 - - 2979 blCL maxRH 83 - - 93 - - 90 - - 92 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 160 - - 710 - - 690 CAPE Temp@2m 65.3 - - 72.6 - - 76.9 - - 77.7 - - 73.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 59.4 - - 61.9 - - 63.5 - - 65.5 - - 66.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.4 - - 70.9 - - 75.3 - - 76.9 - - 73.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.9 - - 60.7 - - 62.1 - - 64.5 - - 66.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 33 - - 163 - - 189 - - 34 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 2228 - - 3269 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 32 - - 74 - - 61 - - 68 - - 73 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 11 - - 12 - - 13 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98101 2 269 10 191 4 245 7 246 4 284 98101 90713 10 262 11 229 11 249 11 244 13 246 90713 84999 9 242 11 249 12 231 12 252 14 257 84999 80248 5 210 9 255 9 232 12 269 11 275 80248 76174 2 096 5 258 5 251 10 280 9 295 76174 72597 5 017 1 249 4 259 11 295 11 309 72597 69385 8 339 3 312 4 274 9 295 12 304 69385 66458 11 320 9 313 6 295 8 281 12 297 66458 63755 12 307 14 303 11 279 11 268 14 285 63755 61141 14 295 22 296 17 280 17 270 19 275 61141 58421 21 285 31 287 23 284 20 275 21 273 58421 55594 32 274 37 272 33 278 28 278 25 273 55594 52886 34 265 40 260 40 270 37 278 31 276 52886 50445 35 260 40 255 44 263 46 270 38 272 50445 48267 40 260 41 258 45 258 49 259 43 264 48267 46311 42 261 40 261 43 257 43 251 45 258 46311 44531 40 264 35 257 39 253 36 251 41 248 44531 42889 40 269 31 251 36 236 34 254 35 238 42889 41356 41 274 30 254 33 223 37 244 34 243 41356 39910 41 276 30 257 31 223 40 234 36 248 39910 38539 38 272 31 253 33 229 41 232 38 251 38539 37204 34 263 32 251 35 234 41 233 39 253 37204 35839 32 257 33 252 34 237 39 236 39 255 35839 34415 28 257 32 254 32 240 35 239 36 257 34415 32934 23 260 30 257 30 243 32 241 33 259 32934 31381 22 260 29 257 29 249 30 245 32 257 31381 29747 22 256 28 253 28 254 31 253 32 252 29747 28031 24 254 29 254 28 262 31 260 29 249 28031 26230 26 257 31 260 28 269 29 262 25 257 26230 24349 28 264 31 265 27 270 27 267 24 264 24349 22391 28 266 28 264 24 264 25 271 23 263 22391 20349 27 266 25 259 23 256 23 269 22 258 20349 18219 26 267 24 262 23 261 22 269 18 257 18219 16047 22 267 24 270 25 277 24 282 15 272 16047 13958 20 273 23 272 27 290 28 297 15 304 13958 12062 20 277 21 272 22 300 29 306 17 317 12062 10380 19 281 18 276 18 305 25 314 16 320 10380 8888 17 289 14 280 13 304 16 308 12 317 8888 7562 15 295 10 288 7 296 8 283 8 280 7562 6387 14 299 6 301 4 260 6 223 6 228 6387 5347 11 299 2 259 4 200 7 161 12 183 5347 4432 6 294 6 157 5*148 9 141 16 169 4432 3626 1 095 9*119 6*129 9 136 17 159 3626 2906 7 092 9*099 6 124 9 134 18 155 2906 2269 13 087 9 092 6 122 9 133 18 153 2269 1738 13 083 9 090 6 118 9 132 17 152 1738 1331 10 074 8 087 5 116 8 131 15 150 1331 1051 6 060 8 086 5 115 8 130 12 149 1051 881 5 058 7 085 5 113 7 129 10*148 881 784 4*056 6 084 4 113 6*129 4*148 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography