DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/23 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 52.3 - - 58.2 - - 56.1 - - 47.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 142 - - 265 - - 58 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2671 - - 5718 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2067 - - 4636 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3380 - - 6427 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1250 - - 1936 - - 7493 - - 4258 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 298 - - 467 - - 67 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 17 - - 19 - - 11 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 261 - - 273 - - 290 - - 265 Direction Wind Shear - - - 9 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 9 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1469 - - -379 - - -5407 - - -3742 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4849 - - 6806 - - 6192 - - 4526 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3798 - - -682 - - -5554 - - -5664 ODpotential blCL - - - 7178 - - 7109 - - 6339 - - 6448 blCL maxRH - - - 66 - - 83 - - 83 - - 67 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 52.3 - - 58.2 - - 56.1 - - 47.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 33.8 - - 30.9 - - 31.8 - - 31.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 51.0 - - 56.4 - - 55.3 - - 50.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 32.9 - - 30.4 - - 31.5 - - 30.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 142 - - 265 - - 58 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2671 - - 5718 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 32 - - 32 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97108 44 234 54 251 54 249 46 244 97108 89853 29 239 40 239 40 247 35 244 89853 84286 22 252 35 230 39 243 34 248 84286 79647 24 248 27 224 34 237 31 243 79647 75623 20 243 16 225 24 237 23 234 75623 72038 13 242 12 231 17 241 16 231 72038 68769 18 246 17 242 17 247 17 253 68769 65763 18 232 17 220 20 233 21 253 65763 62980 4 186 14 172 19 192 11 269 62980 60260 27 275 22 284 16 292 28 298 60260 57417 38 247 40 256 35 267 42 263 57417 54477 36 224 36 220 42 238 44 242 54477 51653 34 243 27 254 34 215 45 260 51653 49110 36 247 48 263 49 266 55 262 49110 46840 36 256 56 256 60 259 56 257 46840 44780 47 261 58 252 53 260 55 265 44780 42899 59 258 52 257 61 268 62 266 42899 41168 65 258 59 261 69 263 64 262 41168 39562 71 257 67 257 70 258 63 259 39562 38062 76 254 69 253 70 257 63 259 38062 36652 77 251 69 254 71 258 64 261 36652 35294 77 252 70 257 72 261 65 264 35294 33924 77 253 74 259 75 263 65 267 33924 32516 78 253 78 260 78 264 63 269 32516 31074 79 252 80 260 75 263 59 268 31074 29581 76 252 77 258 66 264 51 271 29581 28025 71 251 71 255 58 266 46 275 28025 26404 65 250 63 255 43 269 40 279 26404 24710 59 249 54 256 32 284 34 284 24710 22941 51 251 46 257 31 291 31 287 22941 21095 41 255 41 258 32 286 30 284 21095 19167 36 258 38 260 33 277 31 277 19167 17157 35 258 39 265 35 270 33 269 17157 15116 35 257 41 270 37 269 35 267 15116 13154 34 259 39 272 37 270 34 268 13154 11372 33 265 35 272 34 272 34 269 11372 9793 32 273 30 273 29 272 32 272 9793 8397 30 280 25 273 25 273 27 278 8397 7159 27 287 21*271 23 276 23 285 7159 6061 26 291 20*271 22 278 23 288 6061 5088 26 287 20 272 22 281 24 287 5088 4229 25 278 20 273 21 283 25 285 4229 3470 20*267 20 274 21 285 24 284 3470 2790 19*262 20 274 20 286 22 285 2790 2189 18 261 19 275 20 287 19 286 2189 1687 18 260 19 275 19 288 16 287 1687 1302 17 260 18 275 19 289 13 288 1302 1037 16 260 17 275 17 289 9 288 1037 876 14 260 15 275 15*290 6 282 876 784 10 260 12 275 11*290 3*265 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography