DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/07 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0949z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 50.4 - - 54.2 - - 50.3 - - 45.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 168 - - 248 - - 53 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2799 - - 3576 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2229 - - 2971 - - 768 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3508 - - 4285 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 920 - - 882 - - 4038 - - 2422 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 317 - - 391 - - 65 - - 12 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 20 - - 22 - - 13 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 298 - - 292 - - 299 - - 287 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 6 - - 8 - - 4 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -976 - - -1092 - - -3675 - - -2359 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4484 - - 5377 - - 4459 - - 3143 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7870 - - -5882 - - -7195 - - -12022 ODpotential blCL - - - 11378 - - 10167 - - 7979 - - 12806 blCL maxRH - - - 77 - - 78 - - 79 - - 73 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 50.4 - - 54.2 - - 50.3 - - 45.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 33.6 - - 33.3 - - 33.7 - - 34.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 49.2 - - 52.7 - - 49.7 - - 45.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 33.0 - - 32.8 - - 33.4 - - 34.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 168 - - 248 - - 53 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2799 - - 3576 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 8 - - 12 - - 17 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96348 84 247 87 249 89 249 85 252 96348 89121 57 247 57 250 64 254 55 260 89121 83635 29 254 35 239 43 259 36 248 83635 79146 19 260 19 242 22 258 26 241 79146 75273 20 235 21 251 19 279 12 264 75273 71800 14 220 23 230 22 269 15 271 71800 68626 6 276 15 223 18 247 18 253 68626 65708 15 266 13 240 17 245 14 249 65708 62986 22 245 22 236 26 248 19 259 62986 60334 25 239 24 237 29 245 27 265 60334 57563 30 239 24 236 29 236 35 252 57563 54689 37 246 30 248 31 242 39 238 54689 51939 47 251 45 256 40 255 36 247 51939 49448 56 247 56 250 48 259 40 258 49448 47203 60 242 60 246 54 254 47 254 47203 45165 61 241 57 243 54 247 49 248 45165 43295 58 238 53 241 51 242 48 250 43295 41563 56 236 52 243 48 244 48 258 41563 39948 55 235 52 245 48 252 50 266 39948 38436 55 237 52 246 48 259 58 267 38436 37020 54 241 52 247 53 266 67 262 37020 35661 54 246 53 250 60 269 66 261 35661 34295 56 251 57 257 67 269 62 265 34295 32895 59 254 64 261 71 270 63 268 32895 31462 63 257 70 263 73 273 65 271 31462 29974 65 255 76 266 74 275 66 274 29974 28415 62 251 79 267 74 276 68 276 28415 26780 59 249 80 269 74 277 69 277 26780 25061 57 249 79 270 74 276 67 278 25061 23262 55 252 77 270 73 278 66 282 23262 21386 51 256 73 273 70 280 66 287 21386 19430 52 262 65 275 64 281 64 288 19430 17389 53 266 56 272 60 281 58 291 17389 15303 50 266 51 269 57 279 53 294 15303 13286 43 265 47 268 55 277 47 296 13286 11453 36 267 41 269 51 278 45 301 11453 9832 32 269 36 271 45 281 44 309 9832 8401 28 270 31 276 38 284 38 318 8401 7141 24 271 27 283 31 288 35 331 7141 6033 22 280 27 287 28 294 34 335 6033 5057 24 292 25*288 28 299 34 331 5057 4200 24*295 23*290 29 300 35 318 4200 3444 22*297 23 291 29 300 36 307 3444 2770 22 297 23 292 28 300 34 300 2770 2174 21 297 23 293 28 299 31 297 2174 1677 20 298 23 293 27 299 26 295 1677 1296 19 298 22 293 25 299 21 292 1296 1034 18 298 20 294 23 299 16 289 1034 875 16 299 18 294 19 299 12*288 875 784 11 298 13 294 13*299 7*287 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography