DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0700z - - 1331z - - 1600z - - 1901z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 76.7 - - 87.2 - - 90.9 - - 88.3 - - 78.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 19 - - 148 - - 225 - - 12 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 62 - - 2869 - - 5746 - - 63 - - 62 BL Depth Hcrit 754 - - 2258 - - 4611 - - 755 - - 755 Hcrit BL Top 771 - - 3578 - - 6455 - - 772 - - 771 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 602 - - 4948 - - 2936 - - 8345 - - 1485 Hgt.Variab. W* 45 - - 315 - - 454 - - 51 - - 17 W* B/S 3 - - 9 - - 46 - - 3 - - 3 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 6 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 237 - - 309 - - 310 - - 263 - - 223 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 7 - - -3 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2139 - - -1628 - - 300 - - -4090 - - -916 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2910 - - 5206 - - 6156 - - 4863 - - 1687 sfcLCL ODpotential -5234 - - -2520 - - -389 - - -5048 - - -3071 ODpotential blCL 6005 - - 6098 - - 6844 - - 5820 - - 3842 blCL maxRH 86 - - 89 - - 84 - - 98 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 300 - - 1200 - - 1410 - - 1840 - - 2160 CAPE Temp@2m 76.7 - - 87.2 - - 90.9 - - 88.3 - - 78.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 66.4 - - 66.9 - - 66.4 - - 69.5 - - 73.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 76.1 - - 85.7 - - 88.8 - - 87.8 - - 78.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 66.1 - - 66.1 - - 65.5 - - 67.5 - - 72.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 19 - - 148 - - 225 - - 12 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 62 - - 2869 - - 5746 - - 63 - - 62 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 43 - - 57 - - 35 - - 94 - - 33 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 14 - - 13 - - 15 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99159 29 078 36 093 32 091 34 082 32 087 99159 91662 30 086 27 091 28 089 30 089 25 090 91662 85876 28 087 24 096 22 087 25 088 24 088 85876 81072 26 088 24 091 19 092 21 086 21 081 81072 76939 22 082 21 085 20 097 17 089 18 079 76939 73288 19 075 19 079 20 092 15 096 15 078 73288 69995 18 064 19 082 20 089 14 095 13 078 69995 66984 13 055 19 068 18 081 12 094 13 079 66984 64199 10 052 16 050 13 087 10 081 11 074 64199 61508 8 033 10 035 10 067 9 067 7 062 61508 58720 8 033 7 038 5 038 7 015 7 025 58720 55852 13 324 12 328 9 332 6 343 12 335 55852 53145 19 299 18 300 14 309 8 307 12 310 53145 50725 26 292 24 303 26 305 20 311 16 311 50725 48564 34 274 37 286 37 290 30 297 27 300 48564 46605 37 284 40 277 37 281 31 289 32 292 46605 44804 47 296 36 290 36 283 33 288 32 289 44804 43127 54 295 46 299 40 284 36 287 30 292 43127 41551 52 293 54 293 45 280 40 284 30 296 41551 40065 49 293 53 285 49 275 45 280 32 295 40065 38658 45 290 47 282 48 267 47 280 34 294 38658 37294 43 286 45 277 46 265 46 280 35 293 37294 35905 39 286 39 273 42 267 44 280 34 292 35905 34463 29 287 31 272 36 271 39 279 30 285 34463 32969 25 266 33 269 32 278 32 280 26 282 32969 31406 29 273 33 267 29 289 29 284 23 283 31406 29761 29 270 31 268 26 299 25 286 21 287 29761 28036 30 269 28 277 21 299 23 288 18 291 28036 26229 30 272 25 281 17 291 18 283 14 289 26229 24345 30 278 22 284 18 284 20 278 12 292 24345 22387 30 281 23 280 21 283 19 278 12 307 22387 20351 28 279 24 281 22 285 18 283 10 316 20351 18232 23 274 24 283 22 284 17 282 12 296 18232 16075 19 273 20 278 19 282 17 277 14 270 16075 13999 18 274 15 277 14 283 15 284 13 252 13999 12111 13 276 11 269 11 281 14 287 11 259 12111 10431 7 292 9 259 13 256 14 267 13 283 10431 8938 6 298 9 264 13 243 12 261 18 281 8938 7611 5 284 8 268 10 241 9 260 18 274 7611 6432 5 284 9 285 8*242 5 259 13 265 6432 5386 8 302 10 297 6*245 2 254 11 249 5386 4464 10 303 11 304 3 263 2 254 10 241 4464 3649 10 305 11*306 2 312 3 254 9 244 3649 2919 10 304 9*307 2 339 3 257 8 249 2919 2274 10 298 7 308 2 347 4 258 7 254 2274 1737 11 286 6 309 2 353 4 259 5 258 1737 1325 11 269 5 311 3 355 4 260 4 255 1325 1042 8 248 5 312 3 356 4 262 2 243 1042 870 5*242 4 312 2 358 4*263 1 229 870 771 3*237 4 312 2 357 4*263 1*223 771 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography