DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/19 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0952z - - 1329z - - 1554z - - 1857z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 22.0 - - 29.0 - - 35.4 - - 36.2 - - 31.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 59 - - 360 - - 501 - - 209 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 73 - - 3571 - - 5365 - - 5173 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit 766 - - 3100 - - 4623 - - 4080 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top 782 - - 4280 - - 6074 - - 5882 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3249 - - 1085 - - 996 - - 1346 - - 4552 Hgt.Variab. W* 66 - - 439 - - 561 - - 414 - - 15 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 10 - - 21 - - 21 - - 19 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 301 - - 297 - - 297 - - 303 - - 320 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 9 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 3 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4531 - - -2429 - - -1819 - - -785 - - -4199 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5314 - - 6709 - - 7893 - - 6667 - - 4983 sfcLCL ODpotential -17346 - - -13193 - - -9130 - - -995 - - -9887 ODpotential blCL 18128 - - 17473 - - 15204 - - 6877 - - 10670 blCL maxRH 53 - - 53 - - 66 - - 82 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 22.0 - - 29.0 - - 35.4 - - 36.2 - - 31.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 1.6 - - 2.2 - - 3.1 - - 9.6 - - 12.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 21.4 - - 27.2 - - 33.1 - - 34.8 - - 32.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 0.9 - - 1.4 - - 2.7 - - 9.2 - - 12.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 59 - - 360 - - 501 - - 209 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 73 - - 3571 - - 5365 - - 5173 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 27 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96681 16 278 14 314 14 285 15 284 14 293 96681 89454 5 008 3 112 6 198 15 252 14 308 89454 83894 10 322 4 165 5 188 10 246 8 277 83894 79271 7 182 4 140 4 174 7 197 6 224 79271 75277 10 209 5 301 7 173 9 206 10 212 75277 71730 12 210 16 237 16 222 10 224 11 200 71730 68500 13 251 17 219 24 215 18 235 13 235 68500 65538 22 248 24 238 28 223 29 223 29 233 65538 62808 30 245 32 247 34 235 31 241 28 219 62808 60172 47 241 47 245 49 239 52 249 39 251 60172 57433 61 239 58 237 60 230 61 235 60 240 57433 54560 75 240 70 240 70 238 68 235 67 228 54560 51768 79 239 83 238 82 243 80 240 74 234 51768 49232 81 246 83 239 94 242 94 240 85 240 49232 46944 97 250 90 246 104 240 99 238 103 242 46944 44851 110 245 103 245 111 238 103 241 114 238 44851 42912 117 241 113 243 114 238 114 240 114 239 42912 41107 121 241 118 242 118 240 119 239 114 242 41107 39431 121 242 118 241 118 240 117 242 119 245 39431 37872 121 242 114 239 121 241 120 246 127 245 37872 36420 118 241 113 239 119 240 127 243 131 243 36420 35035 119 243 116 240 112 239 116 238 122 240 35035 33643 123 243 120 241 110 242 109 243 117 240 33643 32211 124 240 122 240 117 243 119 245 125 241 32211 30749 123 240 124 239 122 242 129 245 131 241 30749 29238 122 241 125 238 120 240 126 243 132 242 29238 27660 123 240 125 237 117 240 124 240 134 244 27660 26010 125 238 123 238 113 240 120 240 132 243 26010 24285 124 237 113 238 107 241 108 241 117 242 24285 22492 116 236 97 237 94 241 90 242 88 240 22492 20644 103 234 86 239 79 242 71 246 57 245 20644 18737 89 236 76 241 66 246 54 253 38 256 18737 16761 74 239 61 242 53 250 46 259 30 272 16761 14755 60 239 48 244 45 254 39 263 23 294 14755 12829 46 241 40 247 41 254 30 271 19 321 12829 11078 37 245 35 246 34 256 24 285 19 334 11078 9524 32 254 31 254 27 269 23 298 19 335 9524 8147 31 270 31 270 25 286 23 296 20 333 8147 6930 31 284 32 286 22*292 20*295 22 315 6930 5860 30 296 31 298 21*295 20*298 23 300 5860 4919 31 305 24*299 21 296 20 300 21 301 4919 4093 32 306 23*297 22 297 20 302 21 305 4093 3363 29 304 22 297 21 298 20 303 20 307 3363 2710 27 303 22 297 21 298 20 304 20 310 2710 2132 25 302 21 297 21 299 20 305 19 313 2132 1650 22 302 21 297 20 299 19 306 18 316 1650 1280 20 301 20 297 19 299 18 306 15 318 1280 1026 17 301 18 297 18 299 17 306 12 319 1026 871 14 301 16 297 16 300 15 306 9*320 871 783 10*301 12 296 13 299 12 307 5*320 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography