DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 09/16 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1000z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 70.5 - - 69.8 - - 63.7 - - 65.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 204 - - 51 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2778 - - 77 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2301 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3487 - - 786 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2251 - - 4919 - - 1128 - - 1991 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 337 - - 66 - - 40 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 2 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 8 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 056 - - 066 - - 204 - - 031 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 0 - - -1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1352 - - -3408 - - -748 - - -3247 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4839 - - 4194 - - 1533 - - 4032 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2745 - - -3757 - - -2545 - - -8612 ODpotential blCL - - - 6232 - - 4543 - - 3330 - - 9397 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 93 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 40 - - 70 - - 120 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 70.5 - - 69.8 - - 63.7 - - 65.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 52.3 - - 54.3 - - 59.8 - - 51.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 68.9 - - 68.8 - - 63.2 - - 65.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.8 - - 53.9 - - 59.4 - - 50.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 204 - - 51 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2778 - - 77 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 71 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 9 - - 11 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98271 6 166 14 091 14 124 4 245 98271 90872 10 132 13 071 11 103 8 088 90872 85199 11 089 11 078 7 053 13 061 85199 80523 12 070 11 101 7 023 11 011 80523 76498 10 069 10 113 9 022 12 357 76498 72926 4 074 8 094 7 044 7 010 72926 69682 1 115 4 114 8 032 4 038 69682 66701 5 025 4 119 3 021 5 037 66701 63940 0 215 2 116 4 221 1 342 63940 61279 3 187 3 193 7 225 5 238 61279 58512 7 206 6 210 6 211 4 218 58512 55633 12 186 8 195 12 174 9 184 55633 52884 13 143 10 195 10 169 12 161 52884 50408 9 115 16 192 13 194 8 177 50408 48184 9 152 18 173 16 180 7 179 48184 46166 15 142 17 159 15 162 7 159 46166 44319 16 125 16 154 14 158 10 174 44319 42617 16 088 16 126 13 145 18 161 42617 41043 14 075 18 092 15 098 18 126 41043 39578 15 082 22 096 16 087 17 079 39578 38203 28 091 22 083 16 065 10 058 38203 36869 31 084 22 078 13 065 7 094 36869 35506 30 070 21 077 11 076 11 081 35506 34082 28 062 19 069 10 079 14 090 34082 32602 29 062 17 065 9 080 14 101 32602 31054 28 053 17 073 9 077 9 104 31054 29425 27 064 19 075 9 076 7 086 29425 27714 25 069 18 061 10 059 10 083 27714 25921 24 065 13 060 13 035 12 087 25921 24051 22 075 12 081 12 046 10 077 24051 22105 14 091 14 096 13 073 12 070 22105 20077 12 130 19 093 21 062 15 068 20077 17967 17 142 18 086 17 057 14 069 17967 15819 20 126 15 100 16 076 16 089 15819 13753 19 110 13 107 14 087 21 090 13753 11877 20 105 12 099 13 089 19 086 11877 10211 18 104 10 084 13 092 14 074 10211 8730 13 077 8 070 13 097 14 079 8730 7415 19 047 17 060 16 071 15 077 7415 6254 26 051 23 045 19 043 16 052 6254 5236 27 052 20 044 21 031 22 048 5236 4345 24 054 15 048 20 031 26 050 4345 3559 18*056 13 054 18 036 24 049 3559 2856 15*056 13 058 15 040 22 046 2856 2234 14 056 13 061 10 044 19 043 2234 1716 13 056 13 064 5 052 14 041 1716 1319 12 056 12 064 1 146 9 039 1319 1046 11 055 12 065 3 201 7 037 1046 880 10 055 10*066 3 201 5 037 880 785 8 054 8*066 3*204 2*031 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography