DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/20 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 46.8 - - 48.2 - - 45.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 10 - - -3 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 1646 - - 1639 - - 1249 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 38 - - 17 - - 11 W* B/S - - - - - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 132 - - 110 - - 128 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - -1 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -644 - - -464 - - -114 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 1428 - - 1248 - - 898 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -821 - - -883 - - -606 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 1605 - - 1667 - - 1390 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 46.8 - - 48.2 - - 45.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 43.5 - - 45.7 - - 44.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 46.3 - - 48.1 - - 45.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 43.1 - - 45.3 - - 44.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 10 - - -3 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 101 - - 100 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95695 46 274 40 280 37 262 95695 88709 32 283 35 265 35 279 88709 83315 30 276 34 278 33 288 83315 78845 28 273 36 291 33 299 78845 74987 26 287 29 287 30 296 74987 71543 25 293 24 285 28 293 71543 68390 25 292 28 286 32 292 68390 65486 28 288 32 288 33 285 65486 62802 31 286 32 284 34 275 62802 60193 35 279 34 282 34 267 60193 57443 38 284 39 282 40 292 57443 54575 47 281 52 279 57 292 54575 51858 56 285 69 278 74 277 51858 49441 75 289 75 277 77 263 49441 47279 90 280 81 277 66 265 47279 45312 95 270 79 272 67 280 45312 43509 82 269 77 280 76 288 43509 41841 67 280 86 289 96 290 41841 40291 74 296 104 293 110 288 40291 38843 103 297 121 292 117 284 38843 37482 110 293 123 290 120 280 37482 36166 103 289 125 287 121 279 36166 34823 99 286 123 287 117 280 34823 33425 91 282 115 288 107 282 33425 31974 89 281 102 287 96 278 31974 30456 90 278 85 283 80 274 30456 28861 89 274 71 276 75 274 28861 27187 91 274 71 273 69 274 27187 25433 88 279 71 273 68 277 25433 23594 59 277 74 283 66 280 23594 21676 51 279 52 274 60 280 21676 19680 51 277 47 267 48 275 19680 17611 49 272 45 272 38 270 17611 15505 42 268 38 274 36 271 15505 13475 32 267 31 279 32 279 13475 11628 27 271 28 281 28 291 11628 9984 24 273 27 282 27 294 9984 8525 22 265 28 283 28 293 8525 7232 18 254 27 279 30 289 7232 6093 15 254 23 270 28 277 6093 5098 15 258 16 260 19 255 5098 4228 16 254 12 259 12 234 4228 3462 16 239 11 255 7 223 3462 2778 13 216 8 230 6 191 2778 2177 9 186 7 174 12 165 2177 1678 7 154 7 143 14 153 1678 1296 6 141 7 131 12 145 1296 1034 6 138 6 123 8 135 1034 875 5 136 5 116 6 132 875 784 4*132 3*110 3*128 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography