DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/13 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 50.0 - - 54.1 - - 53.2 - - 43.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 147 - - 229 - - 4 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3114 - - 4420 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2374 - - 3565 - - 768 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3823 - - 5129 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2347 - - 1868 - - 6016 - - 587 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 312 - - 407 - - 31 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 19 - - 24 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 286 - - 294 - - 299 - - 253 Direction Wind Shear - - - 13 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 7 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2614 - - -2504 - - -6923 - - -4944 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6437 - - 7633 - - 7707 - - 5728 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10017 - - -9225 - - -13261 - - -13486 ODpotential blCL - - - 13840 - - 14354 - - 14045 - - 14270 blCL maxRH - - - 60 - - 58 - - 44 - - 50 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 50.0 - - 54.1 - - 53.2 - - 43.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 24.6 - - 23.2 - - 22.1 - - 21.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.9 - - 52.7 - - 53.0 - - 47.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 24.2 - - 22.7 - - 21.7 - - 21.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 147 - - 229 - - 4 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3114 - - 4420 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95985 59 244 57 243 78 248 66 249 95985 88928 54 258 56 263 55 249 59 255 88928 83436 51 262 54 260 44 267 49 257 83436 78874 40 260 41 244 40 265 44 261 78874 74965 26 264 30 251 28 267 26 254 74965 71480 27 285 32 272 26 281 12 294 71480 68285 40 294 38 286 35 291 36 303 68285 65367 46 298 41 287 40 288 44 295 65367 62674 36 277 36 277 36 276 35 285 62674 60040 24 256 26 272 29 272 33 292 60040 57256 27 274 20 257 31 275 41 295 57256 54347 41 292 39 285 45 285 51 293 54347 51558 56 297 62 290 61 289 60 293 51558 49039 66 291 73 286 70 289 70 292 49039 46783 74 287 76 285 75 286 77 288 46783 44737 77 286 78 284 79 285 79 284 44737 42864 78 284 81 280 83 284 80 285 42864 41143 79 278 81 275 88 284 83 291 41143 39557 77 272 78 272 88 283 90 293 39557 38091 76 272 76 274 87 281 93 289 38091 36727 78 278 80 279 86 281 90 287 36727 35419 82 280 87 283 86 283 87 290 35419 34094 85 279 92 282 88 286 88 292 34094 32720 86 279 93 280 91 286 89 290 32720 31299 86 279 93 278 91 285 89 287 31299 29815 87 279 91 279 89 284 88 287 29815 28255 89 280 91 283 87 285 87 288 28255 26619 91 282 92 284 87 289 85 289 26619 24904 90 282 92 282 85 291 81 291 24904 23110 86 281 87 284 81 289 78 294 23110 21241 81 282 86 291 75 289 74 294 21241 19292 76 285 86 296 70 295 69 294 19292 17262 70 289 82 297 66 300 63 295 17262 15195 66 292 75 297 63 302 57 297 15195 13207 65 295 72 300 61 303 54 300 13207 11401 63 297 67 302 60 304 51 302 11401 9802 58 299 58 303 56 305 48 304 9802 8390 52 300 50 303 50 304 46 306 8390 7144 49 299 44 302 43 301 43 307 7144 6044 45 297 34*298 36 299 39 304 6044 5072 36 295 26*293 29 297 34 299 5072 4216 28*293 25 293 26 297 30 295 4216 3459 24*290 25 293 25 298 26 294 3459 2781 21 287 24 294 24 298 23 294 2781 2182 19 286 23 294 23 299 20 294 2182 1683 18 285 23 294 22 299 16 293 1683 1299 17 285 22 294 20 299 12 291 1299 1035 16 285 20 294 17 300 8 287 1035 875 14 284 18 295 15 300 6*275 875 784 10 284 13 294 10*299 4*253 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography