DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/19 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0704z - - 0959z - - 1334z - - 1559z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 62.4 - - 72.1 - - 76.3 - - 78.8 - - 73.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 30 - - 131 - - 139 - - 43 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 2645 - - 3925 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit 769 - - 2054 - - 3029 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top 785 - - 3354 - - 4634 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 748 - - 2437 - - 2970 - - 7827 - - 5259 Hgt.Variab. W* 56 - - 298 - - 351 - - 69 - - 8 W* B/S 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 15 - - 20 - - 9 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 281 - - 280 - - 277 - - 293 - - 291 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -3 - - 10 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -613 - - 155 - - 602 - - -5225 - - -3748 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1398 - - 3199 - - 4033 - - 6011 - - 4534 sfcLCL ODpotential -2803 - - -545 - - -478 - - -5808 - - -6165 ODpotential blCL 3588 - - 3899 - - 5112 - - 6594 - - 6951 blCL maxRH 93 - - 93 - - 84 - - 63 - - 59 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 430 - - 1010 - - 120 - - 50 CAPE Temp@2m 62.4 - - 72.1 - - 76.3 - - 78.8 - - 73.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.6 - - 60.4 - - 61.0 - - 55.0 - - 56.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.7 - - 70.8 - - 75.2 - - 78.1 - - 76.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.2 - - 59.4 - - 59.8 - - 53.7 - - 55.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 30 - - 131 - - 139 - - 43 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 2645 - - 3925 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 73 - - 70 - - 34 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98146 10 073 11 103 13 118 11 129 7 125 98146 90597 12 097 15 088 17 133 5 124 3 077 90597 84775 10 108 13 076 15 121 10 138 3 125 84775 79990 9 135 6 137 7 096 9 131 8 127 79990 75887 5 101 7 167 1 265 2 187 7 117 75887 72264 6 233 7 188 5 233 4 249 4 279 72264 68993 4 185 7 236 8 252 3 244 3 280 68993 65989 7 275 5 187 11 253 14 261 15 292 65989 63215 14 283 9 257 16 232 21 226 20 243 63215 60519 18 298 12 288 12 218 17 266 20 264 60519 57717 25 298 22 293 25 265 29 272 26 273 57717 54834 35 274 32 274 33 262 33 273 25 270 54834 52081 39 253 36 253 39 253 42 266 38 274 52081 49604 35 256 36 250 43 248 46 258 49 269 49604 47398 43 264 42 261 42 256 48 266 51 266 47398 45421 55 263 59 269 46 268 54 268 51 278 45421 43631 65 261 70 267 51 277 51 281 63 291 43631 41992 73 259 72 266 58 284 75 300 94 298 41992 40469 74 255 71 270 61 288 99 303 98 293 40469 39034 73 251 70 271 63 285 84 301 85 291 39034 37680 71 247 67 267 61 278 66 296 72 284 37680 36370 68 246 62 265 58 277 59 289 68 279 36370 35034 66 250 57 270 56 280 56 288 57 276 35034 33643 65 256 56 275 56 279 55 289 51 277 33643 32197 62 259 54 274 57 278 54 287 52 277 32197 30683 58 261 51 270 56 275 52 281 55 277 30683 29089 53 263 47 267 55 271 53 279 56 278 29089 27417 47 265 44 264 54 269 54 277 55 276 27417 25666 40 265 43 262 53 269 53 276 51 277 25666 23836 35 266 43 264 50 270 49 275 47 282 23836 21933 32 267 43 269 47 270 46 273 43 280 21933 19952 32 267 40 269 45 267 45 271 41 277 19952 17884 35 269 40 267 45 263 45 270 40 280 17884 15770 37 271 41 268 44 264 42 271 39 286 15770 13731 37 272 42 271 41 269 39 273 35 289 13731 11881 36 274 40 274 38 273 36 275 30 284 11881 10241 34 279 36 276 33 273 31 278 29 271 10241 8785 29 285 35 279 27 271 25 278 27 262 8785 7491 23 290 32 281 23 270 22 280 25 262 7491 6339 20 291 28 280 23 270 21 282 22 266 6339 5318 22 291 24 275 22*272 20 285 20 270 5318 4415 26 289 23 275 21*273 19 287 16 274 4415 3617 28 290 21*275 21 275 19 289 14 277 3617 2901 28 291 18*277 21 277 18 290 13 282 2901 2268 23 287 16 279 20 278 17 291 11 286 2268 1739 16 278 15 280 20 279 17 292 9 291 1739 1333 10 274 14 281 19 279 16 292 8 297 1333 1053 5 279 13 282 17 280 15 293 6 301 1053 883 3 281 11 282 15 280 13 293 4 302 883 786 3*281 9 282 11 280 9*293 1*291 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography