DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/20 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 56.7 - - 65.0 - - 64.7 - - 53.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 85 - - 142 - - -3 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 2261 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 1788 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 2970 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1438 - - 1220 - - 4133 - - 146 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 77 - - 284 - - 30 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 13 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 355 - - 354 - - 359 - - 346 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4137 - - -2362 - - -4204 - - -1622 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4923 - - 5333 - - 4990 - - 2407 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14479 - - -8082 - - -9442 - - -9671 ODpotential blCL - - - 15264 - - 11052 - - 10227 - - 10456 blCL maxRH - - - 52 - - 57 - - 57 - - 59 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 56.7 - - 65.0 - - 64.7 - - 53.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.5 - - 44.7 - - 45.9 - - 46.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 55.7 - - 63.7 - - 64.8 - - 56.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.5 - - 43.7 - - 45.1 - - 45.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 85 - - 142 - - -3 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 2261 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97444 10 217 10 252 16 277 15 287 97444 90198 9 254 11 265 17 272 8 265 90198 84627 9 287 10 275 14 257 13 274 84627 79994 7 285 9 287 10 274 16 281 79994 75999 8 285 10 289 10 298 12 296 75999 72467 12 264 8 303 10 301 9 318 72467 69263 9 283 11 308 11 291 16 313 69263 66329 10 283 9 302 12 295 18 300 66329 63627 6 303 12 305 14 305 15 311 63627 61015 12 314 15 312 18 313 16 318 61015 58280 18 305 18 303 21 295 21 305 58280 55438 19 296 18 295 23 291 26 306 55438 52730 18 293 19 287 22 293 29 305 52730 50293 18 294 19 286 19 291 25 306 50293 48094 20 299 21 301 21 301 25 311 48094 46082 23 303 27 306 25 305 26 311 46082 44223 23 297 29 309 26 309 26 313 44223 42490 20 290 29 307 27 313 26 320 42490 40867 17 285 27 298 26 313 26 324 40867 39345 17 276 19 289 24 309 23 326 39345 37919 15 272 15 284 22 294 21 326 37919 36550 12 254 15 295 16 301 18 321 36550 35174 12 238 17 307 17 334 16 329 35174 33762 8 242 16 303 21 345 18 344 33762 32305 8 289 10 306 20 357 20 345 32305 30780 12 291 11 326 15 359 19 001 30780 29175 13 290 11 316 10 341 12 351 29175 27495 12 316 10 324 9 333 7 349 27495 25735 13 327 8 328 8 328 5 334 25735 23894 11 328 5 336 5 325 4 322 23894 21977 9 348 4 011 4 356 2 019 21977 19975 10 001 5 020 5 010 3 064 19975 17877 13 006 8 026 8 010 7 016 17877 15729 14 012 8 026 11 021 10 030 15729 13660 12 007 11 030 14 026 13 040 13660 11785 14 008 17 035 15 031 15 036 11785 10128 18 007 20 026 17 024 17 035 10128 8661 21 004 22 013 20 015 19 036 8661 7362 21 002 24 005 22 012 19 039 7362 6214 19 005 25 003 22 015 18 040 6214 5204 19 009 25 004 21 014 19 033 5204 4318 20 011 22 006 19 006 21 022 4318 3538 21 017 18*002 18 001 23 013 3538 2840 21 020 15*355 17 000 23 010 2840 2223 20 014 14 354 17 001 22 009 2223 1709 16 005 14 353 16 001 20 008 1709 1314 11 358 13 354 15 001 18 005 1314 1042 10 357 12 353 13 001 14 359 1042 878 9*355 11 353 11 001 9*352 878 785 7*355 8 352 7*359 4*346 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography