DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/16 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1000z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 66.7 - - 72.5 - - 74.9 - - 67.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 205 - - 294 - - 115 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2602 - - 3552 - - 4098 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2171 - - 3018 - - 2948 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3311 - - 4261 - - 4807 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1197 - - 796 - - 1365 - - 1662 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 329 - - 412 - - 319 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 8 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 9 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 077 - - 065 - - 080 - - 058 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 3 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -302 - - -1027 - - -948 - - -2591 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3613 - - 5288 - - 5755 - - 3377 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -697 - - -7979 - - -6337 - - -8728 ODpotential blCL - - - 4008 - - 12240 - - 11144 - - 9514 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 80 - - 82 - - 76 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 66.7 - - 72.5 - - 74.9 - - 67.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 53.8 - - 52.3 - - 52.6 - - 55.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 64.9 - - 70.3 - - 73.6 - - 69.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 53.4 - - 51.7 - - 52.2 - - 55.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 205 - - 294 - - 115 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2602 - - 3552 - - 4098 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 57 - - 18 - - 29 - - 3 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 8 - - 8 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98664 10 136 8 158 6 224 6 345 98664 91292 2 036 7 075 6 166 5 342 91292 85607 3 094 6 060 3 087 3 059 85607 80907 9 122 5 104 8 003 7 100 80907 76849 7 097 8 127 6 352 5 097 76849 73238 7 078 6 100 1 058 4 029 73238 69961 8 091 6 076 4 145 7 354 69961 66960 5 068 6 070 5 127 8 342 66960 64196 3 056 6 066 8 100 2 004 64196 61535 3 068 2 124 5 090 1 078 61535 58764 2 167 3 178 3 160 4 203 58764 55885 4 151 5 215 6 231 5 246 55885 53133 3 183 9 192 11 217 9 242 53133 50658 5 219 8 203 9 217 9 225 50658 48443 7 221 9 244 7 239 7 215 48443 46443 8 224 12 230 12 229 11 212 46443 44624 10 213 20 214 19 211 12 188 44624 42952 16 211 27 196 22 192 10 202 42952 41396 33 215 23 186 20 201 25 200 41396 39933 41 200 23 200 32 193 37 186 39933 38546 33 199 29 201 32 192 29 179 38546 37196 30 200 30 186 28 190 23 179 37196 35816 29 205 31 178 23 192 20 176 35816 34376 25 202 29 176 19 195 18 171 34376 32878 19 180 23 174 16 199 15 169 32878 31309 22 189 22 170 14 200 13 168 31309 29656 28 177 19 173 14 187 17 157 29656 27922 23 166 16 169 15 171 22 134 27922 26112 17 149 17 141 18 157 20 119 26112 24227 17 125 19 130 21 131 19 122 24227 22269 17 111 20 122 17 116 20 117 22269 20231 17 089 19 112 15 096 20 104 20231 18108 20 081 19 099 19 088 21 094 18108 15942 20 082 19 093 21 080 22 094 15942 13854 18 091 19 095 19 084 20 095 13854 11960 20 100 22 100 18 095 18 097 11960 10283 22 103 22 106 17 109 16 103 10283 8798 21 103 21 108 15 109 13 097 8798 7482 19 096 20 101 12 109 12 114 7482 6321 18 084 17 093 13 101 16 127 6321 5296 16 078 11 088 12*090 16 122 5296 4394 13 086 9*072 12*087 15 108 4394 3599 12*085 9*069 11 084 14 094 3599 2886 11*082 9 067 11 081 13 086 2886 2256 10 079 9 066 11 079 13 082 2256 1731 9 075 9 063 10 077 13 079 1731 1327 9 074 9 062 9 076 11 076 1327 1050 8 073 8 061 9 075 10 071 1050 882 7 072 7 060 8 075 7*064 882 786 6 071 6 059 6 073 4*058 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography