DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/21 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 1007z - - 1329z - - 1557z - - 1857z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 71.3 - - 84.3 - - 89.2 - - 88.1 - - 81.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 5 - - 118 - - 89 - - 44 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 1884 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit 767 - - 1455 - - 768 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top 784 - - 2593 - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 278 - - 2680 - - 9012 - - 7832 - - 1274 Hgt.Variab. W* 33 - - 257 - - 82 - - 67 - - 18 W* B/S 2 - - 9 - - 6 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 136 - - 210 - - 190 - - 139 - - 151 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 5 - - 0 - - -3 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -660 - - -1750 - - -4828 - - -4409 - - -1725 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1444 - - 4344 - - 5613 - - 5194 - - 2510 sfcLCL ODpotential -5073 - - -3523 - - -5151 - - -5421 - - -3909 ODpotential blCL 5857 - - 6116 - - 5936 - - 6206 - - 4694 blCL maxRH 85 - - 80 - - 82 - - 82 - - 81 maxRH CAPE 360 - - 1100 - - 1260 - - 1380 - - 2500 CAPE Temp@2m 71.3 - - 84.3 - - 89.2 - - 88.1 - - 81.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 67.5 - - 68.0 - - 67.2 - - 68.0 - - 73.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 70.8 - - 83.0 - - 88.0 - - 87.2 - - 82.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 67.3 - - 67.1 - - 66.2 - - 66.9 - - 72.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 5 - - 118 - - 89 - - 44 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 1884 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 38 - - 21 - - 26 - - 26 - - 22 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 15 - - 14 - - 14 - - 15 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98832 30 081 26 064 31 079 27 088 25 092 98832 91488 25 066 23 069 24 068 25 086 23 091 91488 85811 22 070 23 085 19 072 21 090 20 066 85811 81103 21 082 22 090 14 088 17 088 15 051 81103 77046 18 073 18 094 15 102 11 072 10 059 77046 73445 12 068 15 091 11 103 7 077 9 061 73445 70177 8 090 9 077 9 099 7 082 7 039 70177 67177 3 086 4 087 2 125 4 002 7 026 67177 64414 4 316 2 322 5 221 5 287 9 300 64414 61759 10 291 7 280 8 251 5 232 11 269 61759 58993 20 276 17 270 15 282 10 264 15 266 58993 56129 27 273 22 266 23 277 22 267 21 263 56129 53422 32 271 29 270 33 268 34 277 27 270 53422 51014 32 264 32 270 39 262 43 283 36 278 51014 48869 33 261 34 275 40 262 47 275 47 279 48869 46928 37 263 39 278 34 269 47 261 52 271 46928 45148 39 265 41 276 31 290 43 253 52 258 45148 43495 40 265 36 272 35 299 42 263 51 251 43495 41943 40 260 31 286 42 301 43 273 50 248 41943 40474 42 251 40 307 44 302 40 271 50 252 40474 39078 44 240 47 306 42 304 38 263 50 257 39078 37721 45 233 42 291 39 304 36 265 45 257 37721 36334 46 232 32 275 37 304 36 272 40 254 36334 34888 45 234 30 257 34 299 35 277 38 258 34888 33385 43 242 33 259 33 283 36 281 38 265 33385 31809 39 252 35 264 35 270 38 284 37 270 31809 30148 31 254 35 263 38 271 39 285 36 272 30148 28401 27 251 33 256 36 275 40 284 34 273 28401 26571 27 251 31 248 35 276 39 283 32 276 26571 24659 29 253 28 246 37 272 37 279 31 279 24659 22671 29 254 27 252 37 268 37 274 27 280 22671 20601 28 253 26 260 34 269 36 272 22 283 20601 18449 24 251 27 262 31 269 32 274 20 288 18449 16261 18 255 26 260 29 270 26 276 18 286 16261 14157 15 254 23 256 24 271 22 279 15 283 14157 12246 15 246 20 248 20 265 21 274 15 286 12246 10548 13 250 16 240 17 258 20 265 18 277 10548 9041 11 266 13 237 12 256 16 257 18 270 9041 7700 10 282 11 239 11 255 14 256 15 267 7700 6507 10 284 10 239 9 253 12 256 12 266 6507 5450 10 274 10 242 8 247 11 252 12 263 5450 4517 12 257 11 244 6 234 8 237 11 260 4517 3693 14 241 13 241 5 225 7 208 10 254 3693 2955 14 228 12*235 4 218 8 178 8 242 2955 2304 12 217 8*221 4 211 8 158 8 216 2304 1760 10 207 6 208 3 202 9 147 9 188 1760 1344 9 190 5 205 3 198 9 143 10 173 1344 1058 8 168 5 204 3 195 8 141 9 165 1058 884 6*156 4 204 3*194 8*140 7*159 884 785 3*136 4 204 2*190 6*139 4*151 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography