DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0659z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 82.4 - - 84.0 - - 78.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 166 - - 49 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 4216 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 3316 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 4925 - - 787 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 3664 - - 8532 - - 4039 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 376 - - 70 - - 16 W* B/S - - - - - - 7 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 9 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 291 - - 241 - - 175 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - 2 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -392 - - -5456 - - -3159 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 5317 - - 6244 - - 3946 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -1346 - - -6147 - - -5376 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 6271 - - 6934 - - 6163 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 77 - - 78 - - 69 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 930 - - 640 - - 1150 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 82.4 - - 84.0 - - 78.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 61.8 - - 59.5 - - 64.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 81.0 - - 83.2 - - 80.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 60.6 - - 58.3 - - 62.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 166 - - 49 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 4216 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 9 - - 11 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 11 - - 11 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97955 5 155 3 061 7 356 97955 90570 8 040 6 056 4 354 90570 84910 5 022 4 029 3 043 84910 80218 3 142 3 118 5 356 80218 76172 8 144 6 155 4 336 76172 72584 3 007 6 172 4 283 72584 69333 6 309 1 157 3 267 69333 66340 8 246 7 305 5 308 66340 63571 8 256 14 293 12 298 63571 60911 7 291 14 271 13 298 60911 58146 19 308 15 293 16 299 58146 55273 24 286 19 291 16 289 55273 52536 23 281 20 286 18 285 52536 50083 30 286 25 289 35 309 50083 47907 35 290 37 291 37 300 47907 45973 46 282 43 286 31 299 45973 44224 36 265 40 274 33 299 44224 42596 9 244 34 257 27 286 42596 41064 17 015 17 247 26 289 41064 39616 13 002 9 206 24 259 39616 38243 9 277 7 213 17 241 38243 36910 11 279 9 254 14 234 36910 35549 12 282 13 246 15 244 35549 34127 13 279 15 250 17 260 34127 32649 15 279 13 281 14 278 32649 31105 17 288 12 297 12 306 31105 29481 15 277 11 272 12 281 29481 27781 15 265 16 248 17 251 27781 25999 14 284 18 250 23 249 25999 24141 20 283 19 263 22 257 24141 22211 35 276 25 280 22 276 22211 20203 39 271 28 285 27 291 20203 18111 31 280 27 284 28 291 18111 15981 19 288 32 282 30 291 15981 13929 19 284 35 281 30 292 13929 12062 21 280 31 284 27 288 12062 10400 20 285 25 294 23 293 10400 8920 20 303 20 299 17 299 8920 7603 21 301 17 298 13 280 7603 6431 19 296 13 290 12 259 6431 5391 15*291 11 282 11 246 5391 4473 12*290 8 264 10 232 4473 3661 10 290 7 257 9 222 3661 2933 10 290 7 252 9 213 2933 2290 9 291 6 249 9 207 2290 1753 8 292 6 245 8 201 1753 1341 8 293 5 243 8 197 1341 1057 7 293 5 241 7 192 1057 885 7 293 5*241 5*185 885 787 5 293 4*241 3*175 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography