DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/14 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 78.9 - - 83.1 - - 81.8 - - 76.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 8 - - 57 - - -14 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 78 - - 78 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 770 - - 770 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 787 - - 787 - - 787 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2029 - - 4263 - - 4662 - - 2540 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 51 - - 74 - - 36 - - 18 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 7 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 272 - - 285 - - 257 - - 309 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3552 - - -4131 - - -3396 - - -1229 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4339 - - 4918 - - 4183 - - 2015 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8638 - - -7272 - - -5921 - - -3019 ODpotential blCL - - - 9425 - - 8059 - - 6708 - - 3805 blCL maxRH - - - 54 - - 65 - - 70 - - 98 maxRH CAPE - - - 220 - - 340 - - 410 - - 750 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 78.9 - - 83.1 - - 81.8 - - 76.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 62.6 - - 64.1 - - 66.0 - - 69.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 78.7 - - 82.3 - - 82.3 - - 77.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 61.4 - - 62.9 - - 65.0 - - 69.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 8 - - 57 - - -14 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 78 - - 78 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 91 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 12 - - 13 - - 14 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97564 45 246 40 249 49 246 33 242 97564 90359 29 249 30 248 36 251 31 258 90359 84779 20 233 27 249 24 255 25 258 84779 80131 12 225 16 233 18 254 20 272 80131 76131 8 238 7 231 14 239 15 284 76131 72605 6 213 6 242 10 221 7 288 72605 69426 4 181 8 211 9 250 10 293 69426 66517 5 314 6 198 12 201 11 260 66517 63836 12 282 8 268 9 246 10 243 63836 61239 24 254 26 252 20 268 23 293 61239 58555 25 223 30 253 39 272 49 283 58555 55825 35 270 33 268 44 270 51 275 55825 53225 39 272 42 270 47 265 52 273 53225 50879 39 267 43 264 47 265 53 268 50879 48764 40 265 41 269 46 264 47 266 48764 46822 40 266 40 270 43 266 41 261 46822 45017 41 270 36 266 46 269 42 267 45017 43327 42 273 33 263 50 271 52 278 43327 41737 44 276 36 266 54 275 59 282 41737 40234 47 279 41 272 61 278 63 279 40234 38809 51 283 49 278 68 278 66 276 38809 37424 60 286 58 280 67 276 64 278 37424 36016 62 285 63 279 61 279 63 284 36016 34552 55 288 66 284 60 287 61 286 34552 33038 64 298 65 289 62 292 62 284 33038 31459 68 296 60 289 63 293 63 283 31459 29801 60 285 60 286 64 291 65 286 29801 28064 63 302 53 279 65 287 58 289 28064 26244 67 310 49 269 58 281 58 301 26244 24342 56 296 49 271 47 276 51 294 24342 22364 52 287 51 278 45 278 47 277 22364 20319 43 282 49 280 46 272 46 266 20319 18204 32 274 42 275 46 271 47 267 18204 16053 29 266 37 267 40 271 38 268 16053 13982 29 270 36 267 35 274 31 276 13982 12100 30 274 34 268 33 276 25 293 12100 10425 31 272 29 266 30 279 23 303 10425 8932 29 269 25 265 27 286 22 294 8932 7603 27 267 22 270 26 292 20 285 7603 6425 26 268 21 278 24 288 18 282 6425 5383 26 273 22 286 22 279 16 282 5383 4466 27 278 22 288 19 271 16 282 4466 3655 30 282 19 286 15 262 15 282 3655 2929 30 282 16 285 13 258 15 286 2929 2287 28 281 14 284 12 258 15 293 2287 1751 22 278 13 284 12 257 15 299 1751 1340 17 275 12 284 11 258 13 304 1340 1057 14 274 11 285 9 257 11 307 1057 885 12*273 10*285 8*257 8 308 885 786 8*272 7*285 5*257 4*309 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography