DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/30 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 64.0 - - 68.1 - - 64.5 - - 53.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 71 - - 133 - - -4 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 3406 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 2570 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 4115 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3277 - - 1325 - - 4183 - - 297 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 74 - - 319 - - 29 - - 11 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 17 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 310 - - 319 - - 332 - - 348 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - 6 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2631 - - -2001 - - -4929 - - -2891 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3416 - - 6117 - - 5714 - - 3676 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7194 - - -9137 - - -11673 - - -13615 ODpotential blCL - - - 7979 - - 13252 - - 12458 - - 14400 blCL maxRH - - - 82 - - 54 - - 53 - - 60 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 64.0 - - 68.1 - - 64.5 - - 53.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 51.9 - - 44.3 - - 42.6 - - 40.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 63.1 - - 67.0 - - 64.5 - - 55.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.2 - - 43.3 - - 41.8 - - 40.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 71 - - 133 - - -4 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 3406 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 26 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 6 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96722 69 244 79 246 84 255 77 258 96722 89575 45 253 55 244 62 252 55 257 89575 84057 31 255 38 246 43 248 42 253 84057 79464 30 258 28 254 30 241 35 252 79464 75507 28 257 22 259 25 250 31 253 75507 72009 25 259 14 260 22 260 25 256 72009 68828 19 272 14 286 13 238 25 261 68828 65901 19 275 13 263 12 232 28 263 65901 63194 24 268 18 274 13 213 21 247 63194 60549 38 274 38 286 24 274 27 270 60549 57778 51 274 51 274 48 279 47 281 57778 54922 63 262 55 266 56 268 55 273 54922 52206 60 253 55 262 56 263 58 267 52206 49765 56 257 56 261 59 266 59 270 49765 47587 61 261 61 262 69 270 70 273 47587 45623 65 266 65 265 76 268 75 271 45623 43832 68 273 67 272 73 269 74 277 43832 42191 67 279 67 280 69 272 74 283 42191 40676 65 285 62 286 64 274 71 284 40676 39255 65 289 59 289 63 277 70 283 39255 37907 65 291 60 291 62 279 69 281 37907 36592 61 291 61 292 59 278 65 284 36592 35247 55 289 63 295 54 278 64 290 35247 33844 54 287 63 295 52 280 61 294 33844 32385 55 285 63 294 53 282 55 295 32385 30854 54 285 63 294 55 279 55 293 30854 29238 52 282 58 291 55 274 59 286 29238 27539 49 279 52 282 50 275 57 279 27539 25761 45 282 45 276 46 282 49 273 25761 23907 41 289 39 271 45 286 44 271 23907 21977 37 295 35 275 43 286 42 275 21977 19962 33 296 33 280 38 286 41 280 19962 17855 30 293 29 283 36 292 36 283 17855 15702 28 290 27 285 35 296 35 293 15702 13628 29 288 27 283 35 297 36 303 13628 11748 29 288 28 284 33 299 34 310 11748 10088 29 288 27 292 32 303 32 317 10088 8622 31 290 29 306 32 309 33 323 8622 7325 32 299 33 314 33 317 32 328 7325 6181 30 307 32 316 31 322 30 330 6181 5174 27 309 26 315 27 321 27 328 5174 4293 25 307 19*316 21 321 26 325 4293 3517 24 308 19*317 20 325 24 329 3517 2825 22 309 18 319 20 327 22 335 2825 2213 18 310 18 320 19 329 22 338 2213 1702 16 310 17 320 18 330 21 341 1702 1310 15 310 17 321 17 331 19 343 1310 1041 13 311 16 321 15 331 14 345 1041 878 12 310 14 321 12 331 10*345 878 785 8*310 10 321 8*332 5*348 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography