DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/05 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 26.6 - - 37.7 - - 44.6 - - 43.4 - - 36.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 45 - - 129 - - -16 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 74 - - 1493 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit 766 - - 767 - - 1140 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top 783 - - 783 - - 2202 - - 784 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 118 - - 749 - - 771 - - 1941 - - 228 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 61 - - 236 - - 21 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 17 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 091 - - 166 - - 164 - - 154 - - 142 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -7 - - -3 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1047 - - -2049 - - -1565 - - -2816 - - -2596 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1830 - - 2832 - - 3767 - - 3600 - - 3379 sfcLCL ODpotential -12670 - - -11270 - - -11335 - - -11917 - - -14283 ODpotential blCL 13453 - - 12053 - - 13537 - - 12701 - - 15066 blCL maxRH 65 - - 68 - - 80 - - 61 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 26.6 - - 37.7 - - 44.6 - - 43.4 - - 36.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.8 - - 28.5 - - 31.2 - - 30.6 - - 24.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 30.7 - - 37.1 - - 43.5 - - 43.8 - - 38.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.6 - - 27.8 - - 30.4 - - 30.1 - - 24.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 45 - - 129 - - -16 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 74 - - 1493 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 18 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95727 78 253 71 250 64 251 63 244 68 249 95727 88594 59 252 61 251 49 249 52 251 48 247 88594 83059 46 255 44 254 43 249 43 247 38 257 83059 78459 41 240 39 255 35 246 36 244 35 256 78459 74491 29 251 34 254 30 258 35 255 35 260 74491 70989 42 271 33 268 36 276 38 261 35 260 70989 67825 49 273 38 273 38 270 33 263 30 254 67825 64913 52 275 41 274 36 272 32 270 29 270 64913 62211 52 272 45 279 47 277 39 271 38 272 62211 59594 48 269 52 279 50 272 45 270 45 272 59594 56849 42 274 56 276 54 271 56 272 50 271 56849 53992 54 286 60 280 63 270 60 273 59 275 53992 51287 71 284 75 280 68 276 70 278 68 277 51287 48875 75 279 79 280 77 283 77 278 74 282 48875 46711 67 284 79 284 90 282 83 280 86 286 46711 44745 78 295 89 284 92 278 90 280 96 282 44745 42951 99 291 92 280 89 279 93 280 95 279 42951 41305 102 287 93 283 93 282 96 279 92 276 41305 39784 105 288 102 286 106 283 99 277 91 275 39784 38364 120 290 115 286 117 280 112 277 96 272 38364 37026 125 290 117 284 119 280 116 278 96 272 37026 35730 117 290 107 283 108 280 99 281 86 274 35730 34412 94 289 97 279 86 277 81 280 78 276 34412 33043 80 290 88 277 76 281 71 278 73 277 33043 31623 81 289 80 279 73 282 69 277 70 278 31623 30136 82 285 75 282 68 281 69 279 67 279 30136 28567 80 289 67 282 64 280 68 280 67 279 28567 26915 74 290 59 282 59 280 64 283 64 281 26915 25181 68 291 53 283 50 279 60 286 53 280 25181 23367 62 293 51 281 45 273 56 286 43 277 23367 21475 59 298 49 281 43 263 48 280 40 275 21475 19502 46 295 45 285 40 253 38 267 37 272 19502 17447 30 272 37 287 33 256 33 257 31 265 17447 15357 22 253 30 277 29 263 30 252 25 254 15357 13346 19 266 23 265 30 265 29 250 24 248 13346 11515 17 262 18 244 26 264 25 243 24 243 11515 9891 13 241 17 238 18 249 20 228 22 233 9891 8452 15 237 17 239 17 224 20 216 21 221 8452 7178 16 255 15 233 17 206 22 212 24 213 7178 6051 15 259 13 221 17 198 24 208 26 207 6051 5060 12 238 13 208 19 198 24 206 25 206 5060 4193 10 209 15 198 21 197 23 204 23 204 4193 3432 11 189 19 194 22 189 22 196 23 196 3432 2756 11 181 21 191 22*181 21 182 24 175 2756 2162 11 183 20 189 19*169 20 168 26 160 2162 1668 10 188 18 186 18 165 19 162 25 158 1668 1290 8 188 13 179 17 163 17 159 22 157 1290 1030 6 176 9 170 16 162 15 157 17 155 1030 873 4*153 7 167 14 161 12*156 12 151 873 783 3*091 5*166 10 160 8*154 5*142 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography