DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0953z - - 1000z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 76.2 - - 85.6 - - 87.1 - - 79.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 21 - - 165 - - 13 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 2336 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 770 - - 1924 - - 771 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 786 - - 3045 - - 787 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1577 - - 3173 - - 7327 - - 4696 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 50 - - 304 - - 50 - - 11 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 20 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 045 - - 212 - - 282 - - 284 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - -3 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1425 - - -1147 - - -3910 - - -1708 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2211 - - 4192 - - 4697 - - 2495 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4492 - - -2167 - - -4739 - - -3603 ODpotential blCL - - - 5278 - - 5212 - - 5526 - - 4390 blCL maxRH - - - 97 - - 88 - - 87 - - 97 maxRH CAPE - - - 280 - - 870 - - 1120 - - 1030 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 76.2 - - 85.6 - - 87.1 - - 79.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 69.1 - - 69.8 - - 69.2 - - 71.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 75.6 - - 84.1 - - 87.3 - - 81.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 68.6 - - 68.9 - - 68.2 - - 70.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 21 - - 165 - - 13 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 2336 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 89 - - 51 - - 47 - - 88 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 15 - - 15 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98820 12 062 11 080 14 048 15 027 98820 91436 16 077 17 087 13 035 22 020 91436 85739 14 072 14 071 13 013 22 028 85739 81020 15 063 12 064 9 027 14 020 81020 76965 11 030 11 059 8 035 9 034 76965 73368 6 071 6 051 4 050 7 350 73368 70104 6 052 7 049 2 049 6 320 70104 67097 6 303 7 327 1 247 5 276 67097 64304 5 234 11 287 8 254 11 281 64304 61612 7 283 12 275 12 287 10 256 61612 58835 12 280 18 279 21 300 12 296 58835 56009 10 264 18 265 20 290 23 309 56009 53352 4 298 11 257 13 276 23 302 53352 50972 9 313 7 288 12 290 14 272 50972 48846 11 308 9 314 13 305 10 256 48846 46914 12 308 11 295 17 303 9 270 46914 45137 9 273 13 289 15 294 11 267 45137 43480 7 245 13 284 16 292 12 259 43480 41918 4 217 12 275 16 285 12 266 41918 40439 4 210 10 266 14 280 12 272 40439 39033 6 255 10 262 12 268 10 255 39033 37664 6 249 10 254 13 259 11 241 37664 36264 10 230 15 246 17 253 12 243 36264 34807 17 218 21 238 19 247 16 248 34807 33295 19 210 21 228 16 248 19 250 33295 31712 18 205 20 223 12 261 15 257 31712 30047 15 208 16 227 9 280 10 275 30047 28302 11 218 12 234 9 302 11 287 28302 26474 11 267 9 265 9 306 14 297 26474 24567 11 278 7 269 13 305 14 292 24567 22587 12 285 11 295 12 328 10 280 22587 20525 16 293 17 317 15 325 11 302 20525 18378 15 304 19 316 27 309 21 315 18378 16194 17 310 16 300 26 298 23 314 16194 14095 18 305 21 281 24 290 24 307 14095 12187 20 295 23 278 26 286 24 308 12187 10492 21 297 25 283 28 287 23 314 10492 8987 21 299 26 288 27 288 23 312 8987 7651 20 293 26 292 21 283 20 301 7651 6467 18 289 24 294 16 277 18 288 6467 5420 17 289 20 293 13 276 15 286 5420 4496 15 288 14 290 12 277 15 291 4496 3679 12 287 9*283 10 278 14 291 3679 2947 9 289 5*261 9 279 14 292 2947 2300 7 295 3 210 9 280 13 292 2300 1759 3 328 3 200 8 281 12 291 1759 1345 2 031 3 195 8 282 11 291 1345 1059 2 045 3 191 7 282 9 289 1059 886 2 044 2 191 6 282 6*287 886 787 2*045 2 189 5*282 3*284 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography