DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 02/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 45.8 - - 55.3 - - 56.9 - - 47.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 75 - - 0 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 784 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 544 - - 2452 - - 3252 - - 506 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 60 - - 77 - - 31 - - 15 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 14 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 207 - - 202 - - 154 - - 137 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 0 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1547 - - -3030 - - -2787 - - -257 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2331 - - 3814 - - 3572 - - 1041 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8273 - - -6596 - - -5868 - - -4169 ODpotential blCL - - - 9057 - - 7380 - - 6653 - - 4953 blCL maxRH - - - 73 - - 64 - - 63 - - 85 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 45.8 - - 55.3 - - 56.9 - - 47.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.6 - - 41.6 - - 44.2 - - 45.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 45.0 - - 54.4 - - 56.8 - - 48.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.4 - - 40.3 - - 42.9 - - 45.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 75 - - 0 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 39 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96694 33 081 31 080 24 079 34 067 96694 89606 29 078 28 074 23 074 23 074 89606 84090 20 079 17 087 17 071 16 078 84090 79455 10 088 10 108 7 103 6 343 79455 75441 6 356 3 173 1 086 8 318 75441 71880 6 249 6 311 5 303 11 299 71880 68635 6 295 9 287 9 266 14 272 68635 65632 21 304 16 295 13 294 21 278 65632 62852 30 290 19 295 20 293 24 289 62852 60166 38 286 31 296 29 289 33 299 60166 57350 41 279 44 285 43 285 43 287 57350 54427 40 279 56 282 62 283 52 283 54427 51649 60 281 63 281 69 284 67 284 51649 49166 63 281 73 282 83 285 78 277 49166 46955 66 288 81 282 86 281 77 277 46955 44949 76 290 84 283 80 280 76 284 44949 43118 84 291 83 285 77 287 79 293 43118 41444 93 294 81 289 83 294 89 299 41444 39906 102 292 83 292 94 297 111 300 39906 38476 93 292 87 293 99 295 124 297 38476 37131 90 295 92 293 98 291 121 296 37131 35828 88 295 94 292 102 289 107 293 35828 34502 86 295 93 291 97 289 97 288 34502 33123 85 296 90 293 91 292 93 286 33123 31694 85 295 89 297 84 292 85 285 31694 30197 86 291 87 296 77 288 79 282 30197 28621 83 287 83 293 75 283 74 281 28621 26964 78 285 79 290 75 281 66 286 26964 25228 76 285 73 289 75 280 69 293 25228 23412 67 285 70 287 75 278 67 293 23412 21523 61 287 65 284 68 283 55 288 21523 19558 59 287 56 282 57 288 49 283 19558 17514 54 289 50 285 54 286 42 281 17514 15434 44 289 46 288 49 287 36 287 15434 13432 29 289 37 285 38 288 33 291 13432 11607 23 292 28 279 28 275 33 282 11607 9983 24 288 21 280 20 262 31 269 9983 8543 23 275 18 278 17 263 26 257 8543 7266 20 262 17 271 16 266 22 256 7266 6138 16 260 15 261 16 268 20 260 6138 5143 13 272 13 260 15 269 18 257 5143 4267 12 285 12 265 13 268 14 248 4267 3495 13 291 10 269 9 254 10 237 3495 2805 11 291 8 260 6 212 8 220 2805 2195 8 286 3 224 5 183 10 191 2195 1689 6 262 2 215 4 170 15 170 1689 1302 7 243 2 211 3 163 17 156 1302 1037 4 229 1 209 3 158 14 149 1037 876 2 211 1 208 3*156 10 144 876 784 2*207 1*202 2*154 5*137 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography