DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/30 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 36.3 - - 45.9 - - 47.7 - - 41.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - -13 - - 4 - - -20 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 768 - - 768 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 924 - - 2139 - - 1584 - - 4245 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 21 - - 33 - - 20 - - 12 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 9 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 174 - - 198 - - 199 - - 285 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - -3 - - -2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1819 - - -1331 - - -1112 - - -716 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2603 - - 2115 - - 1896 - - 1500 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10678 - - -4662 - - -2853 - - -1780 ODpotential blCL - - - 11461 - - 5446 - - 3637 - - 2564 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 90 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 36.3 - - 45.9 - - 47.7 - - 41.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 28.0 - - 39.6 - - 42.3 - - 38.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 36.4 - - 45.9 - - 48.2 - - 43.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 27.4 - - 39.2 - - 41.9 - - 37.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - -13 - - 4 - - -20 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 95 - - 100 - - 60 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95838 26 008 40 012 31 024 29 358 95838 88825 19 343 21 015 17 005 20 004 88825 83301 22 315 8 305 14 313 21 333 83301 78706 22 274 16 283 21 301 18 306 78706 74744 20 240 21 257 19 278 22 299 74744 71221 16 272 20 250 23 269 25 279 71221 68021 22 272 19 263 30 258 31 245 68021 65075 30 266 26 261 31 249 34 237 65075 62336 39 262 34 260 37 246 38 237 62336 59666 42 253 35 256 41 246 41 248 59666 56862 39 242 40 247 46 244 60 256 56862 53956 44 253 55 240 62 252 77 245 53956 51193 58 250 66 241 81 249 76 245 51193 48707 69 250 78 243 86 247 79 251 48707 46484 77 249 80 244 86 247 84 251 46484 44477 78 250 82 250 85 248 86 251 44477 42652 85 252 89 250 88 247 91 252 42652 40984 88 251 93 249 92 246 100 249 40984 39455 85 251 98 252 101 246 104 247 39455 38037 84 250 103 254 106 245 106 247 38037 36704 87 247 101 251 103 245 105 242 36704 35419 91 245 95 247 101 243 104 236 35419 34110 89 245 92 241 101 241 106 234 34110 32743 87 244 93 236 97 239 107 235 32743 31321 87 243 95 233 91 237 104 237 31321 29831 85 240 94 232 87 233 101 237 29831 28262 84 238 93 232 88 229 97 236 28262 26618 84 237 93 233 89 228 91 236 26618 24900 83 236 92 234 90 227 83 237 24900 23109 81 235 90 236 89 228 78 238 23109 21243 79 233 87 238 84 233 75 236 21243 19297 79 232 82 239 79 239 71 235 19297 17266 81 232 73 237 72 241 67 237 17266 15191 77 230 66 234 67 241 64 238 15191 13192 66 228 62 233 67 239 62 236 13192 11376 56 226 61 232 69 236 61 235 11376 9769 52 227 61 232 68 236 58 238 9769 8348 50 232 60 234 63 238 53 244 8348 7094 49 235 58 237 55 243 47 250 7094 5992 48 235 55 239 48 246 41 255 5992 5026 49 228 52 236 40 246 35 258 5026 4179 51 220 48 230 35 244 30 262 4179 3431 49 216 43 223 32 240 28 264 3431 2761 42 212 36 216 31 232 27 266 2761 2169 32 207 28 209 28 223 25 269 2169 1674 23 198 23 205 23 214 22 273 1674 1294 17 188 20 203 18 208 20 277 1294 1033 13 180 17 201 14 204 15 282 1033 875 10 177 14*200 11 202 11*284 875 784 6*174 9*198 7*199 5*285 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography