DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/21 KagelMt_CA 3537ft pt26848@34.438,-118.271,3301ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.8 degF SPONSORED BY: Sylmar Hang Gliding Association RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.0 - - 63.6 - - 62.4 - - 61.3 - - 56.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 281 - - 28 - - 34 - - 39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1972 - - 1055 - - 1093 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 2606 - - 4667 - - 2606 - - 2606 - - 2605 Hcrit BL Top 2623 - - 5509 - - 4592 - - 4630 - - 2623 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1096 - - 2048 - - 2730 - - 2318 - - 2181 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 337 - - 145 - - 137 - - 36 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 12 - - 15 - - 19 - - 15 BL Wind Direction 084 - - 178 - - 139 - - 138 - - 175 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 9 - - 13 - - 8 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - 44 - - -19 - - -12 - - 60 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -987 - - 1325 - - 662 - - 731 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3610 - - 4184 - - 3930 - - 3899 - - 2622 sfcLCL ODpotential -6015 - - 183 - - -1674 - - -577 - - -64 ODpotential blCL 8638 - - 5326 - - 6266 - - 5207 - - 2687 blCL maxRH 73 - - 92 - - 100 - - 100 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 270 - - 170 - - 150 - - 120 CAPE Temp@2m 55.0 - - 63.6 - - 62.4 - - 61.3 - - 56.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.1 - - 54.0 - - 54.0 - - 52.9 - - 56.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.3 - - 62.7 - - 63.1 - - 61.8 - - 56.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.1 - - 54.0 - - 52.8 - - 52.9 - - 56.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 281 - - 28 - - 34 - - 39 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1972 - - 1055 - - 1093 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 69 - - 102 - - 101 - - 104 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97671 15 300 17 291 17 309 12 310 23 285 97671 90371 16 313 13 315 13 296 14 304 16 310 90371 84740 15 302 11 332 9 304 15 307 15 312 84740 80101 11 290 9 310 15 306 17 333 13 328 80101 76127 7 307 9 268 14 279 17 333 16 350 76127 72613 10 340 5 285 9 273 14 314 17 349 72613 69414 7 347 1 331 5 202 9 250 9 302 69414 66474 7 259 6 246 7 181 10 222 7 224 66474 63745 14 200 14 233 16 198 15 194 9 163 63745 61062 17 216 19 235 25 221 21 216 18 208 61062 58265 33 205 28 213 29 221 31 219 20 222 58265 55383 43 210 34 210 38 213 41 218 31 226 55383 52617 52 222 49 215 48 209 58 205 41 215 52617 50113 63 215 50 218 49 229 49 230 43 230 50113 47866 62 231 78 233 82 232 66 233 57 236 47866 45826 94 232 99 221 86 222 71 227 68 234 45826 43953 100 219 94 215 84 224 74 224 75 230 43953 42216 98 210 92 220 87 222 77 222 82 226 42216 40601 89 211 97 224 88 220 83 218 91 220 40601 39087 90 221 100 226 88 219 86 215 95 215 39087 37663 94 223 100 224 89 218 86 214 93 213 37663 36292 95 222 101 221 89 218 85 215 93 212 36292 34912 94 218 102 217 89 218 85 216 94 211 34912 33501 94 217 103 215 89 218 85 215 94 210 33501 32065 92 216 103 214 89 217 87 213 93 211 32065 30585 87 210 100 212 88 216 89 213 92 211 30585 29049 84 209 92 210 88 214 88 214 90 209 29049 27453 79 209 82 209 88 210 86 214 87 207 27453 25793 71 208 72 210 80 205 85 214 82 207 25793 24071 62 202 68 207 72 200 78 212 77 206 24071 22291 54 196 68 201 63 191 70 209 71 203 22291 20446 48 195 63 195 60 193 60 203 66 199 20446 18533 44 194 57 190 57 198 56 200 55 195 18533 16591 41 191 50 187 51 203 53 199 48 191 16591 14726 37 189 42 184 42 205 48 196 44 188 14726 13028 35 186 35 181 40 204 43 191 45 188 13028 11514 32 182 29 180 37 202 40 190 44 185 11514 10163 28 179 26 177 33 195 38 186 40 178 10163 8955 24 177 24 174 29 184 36 177 36 175 8955 7875 22 175 22 174 27 171 34 168 33 175 7875 6916 19 174 19 172 25 160 31 160 29 176 6916 6067 17 171 17*167 24 151 29 152 27 176 6067 5314 16 163 15*165 21 143 27 146 25 177 5314 4637 15 153 13 168 19*138 25*142 24 177 4637 4037 14 143 12 177 17*137 23*139 23 176 4037 3533 12 140 11 185 16 138 21 138 22 176 3533 3145 10 137 11 190 15 139 19 138 20 176 3145 2878 9 132 11 192 14 141 17 138 18 175 2878 2715 7*120 10 194 12 142 15 138 15*175 2715 2622 4*084 8 195 8 142 10 139 10*175 2622 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography