DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/16 Panoche 2321ft pt31353@36.586,-120.999 (at ridge) SPONSORED BY: DrJack RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.6 - - 54.5 - - 59.5 - - 58.8 - - 48.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 114 - - 184 - - 56 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1099 - - 1984 - - 1752 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 2321 - - 2321 - - 3334 - - 2322 - - 2321 Hcrit BL Top 2337 - - 3420 - - 4305 - - 4074 - - 2338 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 393 - - 780 - - 941 - - 1175 - - 830 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 212 - - 299 - - 193 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 9 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 035 - - 034 - - 031 - - 033 - - 047 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -107 - - -45 - - -476 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2337 - - 3527 - - 4350 - - 4550 - - 2338 sfcLCL ODpotential -10044 - - -7874 - - -4206 - - -7617 - - -8668 ODpotential blCL 12381 - - 11294 - - 8511 - - 11691 - - 11006 blCL maxRH 87 - - 82 - - 83 - - 78 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.6 - - 54.5 - - 59.5 - - 58.8 - - 48.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.7 - - 47.2 - - 48.5 - - 46.9 - - 47.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.7 - - 53.6 - - 58.2 - - 58.3 - - 51.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.4 - - 46.0 - - 47.5 - - 46.3 - - 48.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 114 - - 184 - - 56 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1099 - - 1984 - - 1752 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 46 - - 30 - - 30 - - 13 - - 48 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97085 27 284 24 295 27 294 19 275 18 271 97085 89941 14 298 16 291 14 283 16 278 20 301 89941 84411 14 326 8 286 10 254 12 287 16 310 84411 79798 8 322 3 045 7 205 5 230 9 300 79798 75814 1 245 4 060 2 174 2 142 2 004 75814 72281 3 172 6 121 3 198 3 067 5 075 72281 69076 4 133 5 097 4 187 4 055 5 111 69076 66130 2 033 2 058 0 321 3 004 6 119 66130 63397 7 274 4 280 6 006 5 326 4 095 63397 60752 7 271 10 281 12 339 5 354 5 087 60752 58000 10 311 10 290 13 319 8 337 7 014 58000 55148 18 308 14 320 13 312 9 322 10 348 55148 52426 23 303 21 307 18 300 14 312 12 354 52426 49973 28 306 22 301 22 304 16 329 17 353 49973 47771 32 305 25 298 23 311 20 331 15 351 47771 45766 36 299 26 308 23 311 19 330 15 020 45766 43925 37 296 26 308 22 319 19 341 22 024 43925 42220 35 299 29 308 23 328 21 339 24 017 42220 40631 35 306 32 311 25 323 20 344 23 021 40631 39145 41 308 37 306 28 315 20 351 25 038 39145 37750 48 301 44 297 29 308 19 357 34 047 37750 36415 54 296 51 292 29 303 20 008 43 046 36415 35077 56 295 56 289 28 303 22 016 48 048 35077 33705 56 298 57 289 26 306 26 023 51 056 33705 32292 55 300 54 290 23 316 31 031 57 060 32292 30820 52 303 49 298 20 332 35 036 61 058 30820 29277 47 306 36 308 19 350 36 038 60 058 29277 27664 42 310 27 318 20 002 34 039 57 060 27664 25979 39 314 26 328 20 004 30 039 54 066 25979 24226 37 322 26 331 19 357 26 037 42 069 24226 22410 34 329 24 335 20 351 24 031 28 057 22410 20524 30 337 25 343 22 355 24 027 24 042 20524 18561 29 347 29 355 25 004 25 024 25 039 18561 16561 29 351 31 008 27 009 25 023 24 040 16561 14633 26 360 31 014 29 012 25 023 23 041 14633 12880 24 007 29 013 28 014 25 026 23 043 12880 11321 22 009 24 008 25 012 22 031 21 050 11321 9936 19 011 19 009 21 007 19 034 18 063 9936 8703 17 015 16 017 17 012 16 036 16 074 8703 7607 15 013 14 026 15 023 15 043 15 077 7607 6635 13 011 12 030 15 028 15 046 14 072 6635 5777 11 012 11 028 13 026 15 037 14 063 5777 5020 10 016 9 024 11 024 14 026 15 048 5020 4342 11 025 8 024 9*026 11*026 15 028 4342 3742 12 028 7*029 9*028 10*030 16 021 3742 3241 13 030 7*032 9 030 10 033 14 024 3241 2856 13 030 7 034 9 032 10 034 12 033 2856 2591 11 030 6 034 8 033 9 036 9 040 2591 2430 8 031 6 035 8 033 8 036 6*044 2430 2338 4*035 5 035 7 034 7 036 4*047 2338 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography