DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.2 - - 49.7 - - 52.7 - - 50.3 - - 48.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 14 - - 19 - - -13 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1001 - - 1192 - - 3984 - - 3311 - - 882 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5829 - - 6020 - - 8812 - - 8139 - - 5710 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1930 - - 2702 - - 3050 - - 3823 - - 3838 Hgt.Variab. W* 62 - - 121 - - 225 - - 96 - - 25 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 16 - - 16 - - 22 - - 14 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 205 - - 203 - - 228 - - 232 - - 252 Direction Wind Shear 17 - - 12 - - 16 - - 13 - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg 37 - - 48 - - 93 - - 59 - - 17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1456 - - 1648 - - 3288 - - 3367 - - 1338 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 4372 - - 5524 - - 4772 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential 251 - - 93 - - 579 - - 9 - - -612 ODpotential blCL 5578 - - 5927 - - 8233 - - 8130 - - 6322 blCL maxRH 101 - - 101 - - 89 - - 94 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 130 - - 260 - - 470 - - 280 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m 51.2 - - 49.7 - - 52.7 - - 50.3 - - 48.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.7 - - 46.7 - - 43.6 - - 44.4 - - 44.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.5 - - 50.7 - - 53.7 - - 52.6 - - 50.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.3 - - 45.9 - - 42.3 - - 43.1 - - 43.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 14 - - 19 - - -13 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1001 - - 1192 - - 3984 - - 3311 - - 882 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 103 - - 102 - - 55 - - 76 - - 76 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96399 15 277 19 288 23 273 25 281 27 291 96399 89278 2 306 13 296 8 309 7 006 9 313 89278 83765 12 357 7 285 7 330 7 332 10 330 83765 79196 10 321 3 042 3 340 10 324 12 336 79196 75268 9 339 4 043 5 067 6 313 10 351 75268 71799 13 294 4 138 5 098 7 314 8 001 71799 68646 8 299 3 340 4 121 11 295 10 022 68646 65740 10 279 11 312 7 350 10 270 16 255 65740 63063 14 282 14 286 5 321 1 168 16 193 63063 60461 16 242 18 231 22 225 7 234 7 136 60461 57699 14 241 22 236 33 235 27 246 22 239 57699 54794 24 226 30 234 32 244 31 232 36 232 54794 52007 40 229 36 228 24 247 32 235 42 245 52007 49504 44 232 39 227 27 247 40 248 51 249 49504 47266 47 232 46 225 47 236 55 241 52 247 47266 45233 50 225 50 221 58 231 59 229 48 251 45233 43373 51 216 55 220 63 227 49 234 47 261 43373 41660 58 214 64 221 58 225 48 256 51 269 41660 40075 72 219 76 220 53 234 55 260 50 277 40075 38609 83 217 85 216 71 241 60 262 54 283 38609 37250 86 212 93 214 86 236 70 268 60 284 37250 35959 86 209 99 211 85 236 80 274 63 284 35959 34668 88 209 104 209 80 240 83 277 62 285 34668 33343 90 211 107 207 79 240 84 279 61 283 33343 31984 92 211 107 206 80 237 82 280 61 277 31984 30574 92 210 104 205 82 235 79 282 61 276 30574 29106 91 209 100 204 84 233 76 284 60 275 29106 27581 87 209 97 203 86 229 73 283 60 274 27581 26001 81 209 94 204 87 227 67 279 61 273 26001 24370 74 209 88 205 84 228 65 272 60 274 24370 22690 69 208 81 205 75 234 64 264 59 276 22690 20958 65 208 73 206 63 241 61 261 55 278 20958 19169 61 208 62 208 55 240 54 264 48 277 19169 17362 55 207 51 207 49 234 45 266 41 270 17362 15637 50 200 47 204 40 230 36 268 35 264 15637 14078 48 192 44 203 39 232 27 261 30 259 14078 12692 45 189 44 203 34 233 21 249 27 251 12692 11457 42 191 43 207 31 234 17 242 25 243 11457 10350 40 196 39 214 28 234 17 242 22 237 10350 9357 40 200 34 219 27*234 17 241 19 235 9357 8469 38 203 30 220 26*233 17*240 17 237 8469 7676 36 206 27 218 25 232 16*239 15 244 7676 6966 32 208 24 216 24 230 16 238 13 252 6966 6322 28*209 22*212 23 228 16 236 11 259 6322 5747 24*209 20*210 22 226 15 233 10*262 5747 5261 19 208 18 206 20 223 14 229 8*261 5261 4884 14 204 16 201 18 221 12 224 6 253 4884 4623 11 199 14 196 17 219 9 217 4 243 4623 4464 9 197 12 194 15 218 8 209 2 235 4464 4373 6 196 9 191 11 215 5 200 1 240 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography