DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/28 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.6 - - 54.9 - - 57.4 - - 53.0 - - 49.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 26 - - 38 - - -8 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 947 - - 1343 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 5775 - - 6171 - - 4374 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1757 - - 1427 - - 1556 - - 2797 - - 2120 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 140 - - 173 - - 12 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 12 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 042 - - 100 - - 141 - - 072 - - 060 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -6 - - 6 - - -8 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3623 - - -1782 - - -1864 - - -1965 - - -3041 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7998 - - 7558 - - 8035 - - 6340 - - 7416 sfcLCL ODpotential -11618 - - -9291 - - -8127 - - -7747 - - -9487 ODpotential blCL 15992 - - 15066 - - 14298 - - 12121 - - 13861 blCL maxRH 77 - - 63 - - 51 - - 50 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.6 - - 54.9 - - 57.4 - - 53.0 - - 49.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.4 - - 37.1 - - 37.5 - - 40.4 - - 32.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.5 - - 55.7 - - 58.2 - - 57.1 - - 56.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.2 - - 35.8 - - 36.3 - - 39.2 - - 31.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 26 - - 38 - - -8 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 947 - - 1343 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 7 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96240 8 332 12 036 9 141 5 176 3 359 96240 89135 2 230 10 349 8 057 11 070 10 087 89135 83647 11 009 4 229 9 284 8 356 12 021 83647 79075 19 359 0 339 9 299 10 311 13 357 79075 75115 16 343 6 320 13 338 8 330 10 307 75115 71608 10 315 13 328 15 346 12 355 10 320 71608 68438 13 297 20 299 22 326 16 329 17 342 68438 65519 17 288 24 285 27 296 27 308 26 312 65519 62820 20 291 25 292 29 291 31 302 32 299 62820 60214 36 300 33 299 34 295 33 300 30 290 60214 57482 46 295 39 289 39 288 37 290 37 294 57482 54632 54 285 41 290 44 283 51 281 55 290 54632 51911 59 281 49 292 58 283 60 278 60 287 51911 49458 65 279 57 286 64 281 61 277 58 289 49458 47254 69 276 60 280 65 282 58 281 60 290 47254 45262 71 275 63 278 67 285 61 285 65 290 45262 43451 71 276 66 277 67 283 63 283 64 289 43451 41789 72 277 65 276 67 275 59 282 55 290 41789 40244 72 278 60 281 64 274 54 287 51 297 40244 38804 66 276 51 290 45 275 49 284 44 280 38804 37464 55 274 48 295 33 289 39 283 26 272 37464 36181 45 275 50 293 41 301 36 292 20 300 36181 34888 38 276 46 290 48 292 39 297 22 327 34888 33556 34 275 38 292 45 287 41 296 25 339 33556 32188 33 277 34 292 39 285 39 289 24 338 32188 30771 32 282 33 287 38 291 35 285 22 331 30771 29297 31 289 32 286 36 296 33 287 23 323 29297 27772 28 294 34 287 34 296 32 289 24 309 27772 26197 28 294 35 285 36 290 32 290 24 305 26197 24571 28 294 31 283 39 283 32 289 20 309 24571 22895 27 291 27 281 37 280 33 287 21 305 22895 21169 27 287 27 282 31 278 32 285 25 302 21169 19389 26 285 27 285 24 284 28 289 27 299 19389 17589 25 285 25 287 20 301 25 296 27 297 17589 15860 22 284 22 288 20 313 24 302 26 297 15860 14285 20 278 20 288 19 318 23 305 26 296 14285 12875 18 268 17 289 18 319 22 309 26 295 12875 11611 17 264 15 289 16 316 22 312 24 292 11611 10474 15 261 13 286 14 308 20 311 22 292 10474 9454 13 256 12 280 13 297 17 300 19 292 9454 8542 11 249 11 272 12 283 14 282 14 289 8542 7730 10 239 9 260 10 269 11 269 10 270 7730 7006 8 223 7 247 7 254 6 255 7 243 7006 6350 6 203 4*225 4*235 4 217 6 213 6350 5765 4 177 1*158 3*150 3 161 6 187 5765 5271 3 131 3 084 4 138 4 120 5 162 5271 4890 3 102 3 090 4 139 6 094 5 126 4890 4626 3 073 2 108 4 141 6 081 5 092 4626 4466 3*049 2 116 3 144 5*070 5*068 4466 4373 3*042 2 120 3 143 4*063 5*060 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography