DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1012z - - 1333z - - 1601z - - 1901z - - 2220z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.8 - - 79.9 - - 86.2 - - 86.2 - - 74.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 16 - - 276 - - 274 - - 178 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3679 - - 7915 - - 7409 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4268 - - 7248 - - 10539 - - 9877 - - 4268 Hcrit BL Top 4286 - - 8507 - - 12743 - - 12237 - - 4286 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2103 - - 3210 - - 2424 - - 2432 - - 1447 Hgt.Variab. W* 30 - - 422 - - 540 - - 458 - - 8 W* B/S 1 - - 27 - - 34 - - 18 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 008 - - 309 - - 332 - - 014 - - 356 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 1 - - 10 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -11 - - 14 - - -20 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1358 - - -1141 - - 1362 - - 765 - - -2942 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5644 - - 9649 - - 11382 - - 11473 - - 7228 sfcLCL ODpotential -5306 - - -4013 - - 204 - - -975 - - -6918 ODpotential blCL 9592 - - 12520 - - 12539 - - 13212 - - 11204 blCL maxRH 78 - - 85 - - 85 - - 77 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 930 - - 470 - - 610 - - 560 - - 640 CAPE Temp@2m 70.8 - - 79.9 - - 86.2 - - 86.2 - - 74.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 60.4 - - 52.3 - - 50.8 - - 50.5 - - 56.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.6 - - 80.9 - - 85.9 - - 85.8 - - 75.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 59.5 - - 51.8 - - 50.7 - - 50.5 - - 56.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 16 - - 276 - - 274 - - 178 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3679 - - 7915 - - 7409 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 13 - - 40 - - 40 - - 9 - - 31 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 9 - - 9 - - 8 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99171 40 096 37 101 37 105 32 084 29 087 99171 92476 37 093 34 099 35 102 31 096 29 098 92476 87154 32 089 34 096 28 100 28 094 27 100 87154 82668 27 093 30 097 25 106 23 092 25 098 82668 78770 23 101 25 098 23 107 22 103 23 097 78770 75307 22 109 20 097 22 102 21 108 21 094 75307 72164 21 107 17 100 19 095 19 109 18 089 72164 69268 15 108 16 106 15 094 17 106 14 087 69268 66578 12 104 12 108 12 097 14 101 11 099 66578 63972 9 100 8 094 8 099 12 092 10 124 63972 61261 4 150 4 131 3 042 6 071 10 127 61261 58455 9 204 8 205 6 258 3 294 4 141 58455 55790 12 208 12 208 14 226 12 235 10 238 55790 53409 12 213 14 204 19 217 20 225 19 232 53409 51290 12 222 14 211 22 216 23 220 23 222 51290 49368 16 228 14 219 23 221 23 223 23 220 49368 47598 19 232 18 226 25 228 24 230 24 227 47598 45954 24 235 24 230 27 233 27 233 28 235 45954 44416 28 235 29 231 32 234 33 234 33 237 44416 42969 31 234 33 230 34 232 37 233 36 236 42969 41601 33 232 35 229 35 228 39 231 37 235 41601 40271 35 233 36 230 35 227 40 230 38 235 40271 38913 37 235 37 232 36 229 41 232 39 237 38913 37497 38 236 38 233 38 232 43 236 41 241 37497 36027 36 233 37 231 39 235 45 240 43 243 36027 34489 32 228 35 227 40 235 45 241 43 244 34489 32874 25 224 31 223 39 234 42 240 40 243 32874 31185 18 222 25 218 34 231 36 236 34 239 31185 29422 12 222 21 212 28 225 30 229 26 231 29422 27585 11 223 16 209 22 216 26 219 19 219 27585 25674 11 215 11 200 19 208 23 211 16 208 25674 23680 9 198 7 187 15 203 19 202 15 199 23680 21598 8 159 5 146 13 189 17 192 14 192 21598 19471 9 144 7 133 11 172 16 178 14 170 19471 17417 7 161 6 150 8 167 13 163 14 147 17417 15545 5 170 3 152 6 148 11 146 12 138 15545 13877 4 123 3 098 6*118 8 127 8 122 13877 12393 6 094 4 078 5*089 6*108 7 105 12393 11071 5 102 3 074 3 049 3*082 4 091 11071 9896 3 138 1 319 3 355 2 060 2 048 9896 8855 2 175 3*295 3 338 2 039 3 353 8855 7939 1 245 3*304 4 325 3 017 5 339 7939 7130 2 306 3 307 4 315 5 009 6 339 7130 6407 4 322 3 308 5 309 7 005 6 340 6407 5770 4 311 3 310 5 304 8 003 6 346 5770 5238 3 313 3 310 5 301 8 002 8 350 5238 4831 3 341 2 313 5 300 9 002 9 347 4831 4551 4 009 2 316 5 299 9 002 7 341 4551 4381 4*009 2 314 5 300 8 001 6*346 4381 4285 3*007 2 315 5 299 8 002 4*356 4285 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography