DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/25 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 33.0 - - 43.6 - - 52.2 - - 50.1 - - 40.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 96 - - 202 - - 0 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1500 - - 6113 - - 4101 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 5096 - - 8964 - - 4356 - - 4355 Hcrit BL Top 4372 - - 6328 - - 10941 - - 8929 - - 4373 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1194 - - 2289 - - 1826 - - 2726 - - 3554 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 226 - - 450 - - 89 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 4 - - 9 - - 15 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 302 - - 301 - - 326 - - 337 - - 012 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 11 - - 8 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 5 - - -4 - - -21 - - -14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2745 - - -2727 - - -2813 - - -5603 - - -7100 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7118 - - 9055 - - 13754 - - 14532 - - 11474 sfcLCL ODpotential -8466 - - -7227 - - -7305 - - -13304 - - -12370 ODpotential blCL 12838 - - 13555 - - 18246 - - 22233 - - 16743 blCL maxRH 38 - - 38 - - 35 - - 59 - - 55 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 33.0 - - 43.6 - - 52.2 - - 50.1 - - 40.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 17.7 - - 19.4 - - 6.8 - - 1.5 - - 6.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.3 - - 43.9 - - 51.9 - - 51.3 - - 47.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 16.4 - - 18.3 - - 5.7 - - 0.5 - - 5.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 96 - - 202 - - 0 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1500 - - 6113 - - 4101 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95481 99 257 85 266 94 261 95 267 93 265 95481 88551 69 266 64 265 82 269 72 277 71 273 88551 83241 52 284 47 267 53 275 59 273 57 276 83241 78812 41 291 37 269 38 276 44 275 41 284 78812 74934 32 299 30 270 30 270 33 281 37 295 74934 71447 29 300 28 276 28 258 37 273 42 281 71447 68279 27 286 27 277 34 271 35 275 41 277 68279 65379 27 284 31 280 32 279 33 282 35 294 65379 62672 34 279 30 266 33 285 48 274 44 295 62672 60021 27 261 32 274 50 266 48 262 49 278 60021 57242 36 278 48 259 45 259 41 269 46 269 57242 54344 47 268 33 255 35 266 43 293 46 282 54344 51554 46 283 29 278 49 288 56 283 56 283 51554 49031 58 285 49 285 58 281 60 275 60 282 49031 46771 65 280 57 286 65 281 60 283 63 285 46771 44731 62 288 64 291 69 286 66 290 68 291 44731 42879 60 290 70 293 68 292 73 295 80 295 42879 41190 63 299 74 295 68 299 87 299 93 293 41190 39637 71 307 77 304 80 306 96 297 98 291 39637 38200 81 314 83 316 92 306 96 297 96 292 38200 36866 88 320 92 319 101 306 92 299 89 295 36866 35595 91 325 100 317 106 306 92 301 85 298 35595 34317 98 330 103 317 104 307 95 302 88 298 34317 33001 104 333 104 317 97 312 91 304 82 300 33001 31651 105 333 103 319 93 316 82 310 76 307 31651 30255 97 333 101 322 93 317 78 316 77 308 30255 28803 77 330 97 323 90 319 76 316 75 307 28803 27295 60 326 93 323 87 322 75 317 73 310 27295 25735 49 329 90 326 85 322 74 320 71 314 25735 24125 47 333 74 329 86 327 72 320 69 317 24125 22468 44 332 55 325 80 332 71 324 65 324 22468 20763 40 329 46 321 62 331 66 330 58 331 20763 19014 36 328 43 320 47 329 51 335 46 333 19014 17256 32 328 40 324 40 330 36 341 35 335 17256 15570 29 330 34 331 36 331 30 347 31 341 15570 14033 27 333 27 336 32 335 27 350 30 349 14033 12659 25 338 23 339 27 340 24 352 29 358 12659 11428 23 344 20 345 20*345 21 354 28 005 11428 10324 20 349 18 351 14*346 19 353 26 008 10324 9332 18 354 15 355 12 342 18*349 23 004 9332 8445 17 360 12 358 11 338 16*345 21 356 8445 7653 17 009 10 003 10 329 16 342 20 348 7653 6946 17 019 8*008 9 321 16 339 20 347 6946 6305 17 028 6*002 8 313 16 336 18 350 6305 5732 15 033 4 330 8 306 15 334 16 355 5732 5251 12 027 4 285 7 301 15 332 12 001 5251 4877 8 001 4 274 7 297 15 331 9 009 4877 4620 7 321 4 266 6 294 13 330 7 012 4620 4463 7*311 4 263 6 292 12 328 5*011 4463 4372 5*302 4 260 5 291 9 326 3*013 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography