DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/16 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1011z - - 1336z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2157z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.7 - - 76.3 - - 82.3 - - 82.9 - - 65.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 263 - - 278 - - 0 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2670 - - 5727 - - 5339 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4267 - - 6460 - - 8817 - - 4268 - - 4267 Hcrit BL Top 4285 - - 7498 - - 10555 - - 10167 - - 4285 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 254 - - 2954 - - 2776 - - 3544 - - 60 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 369 - - 485 - - 64 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 18 - - 38 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 2 - - 4 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 036 - - 164 - - 282 - - 304 - - 014 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -18 - - -10 - - -20 - - -20 - - -21 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8047 - - -7971 - - -6039 - - -7431 - - -7970 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12333 - - 15470 - - 16595 - - 17599 - - 12255 sfcLCL ODpotential -17769 - - -14633 - - -11690 - - -13103 - - -16640 ODpotential blCL 22054 - - 22131 - - 22245 - - 23270 - - 20925 blCL maxRH 51 - - 60 - - 59 - - 57 - - 65 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.7 - - 76.3 - - 82.3 - - 82.9 - - 65.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.6 - - 23.5 - - 24.3 - - 20.3 - - 28.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 62.8 - - 76.9 - - 82.9 - - 83.8 - - 68.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.5 - - 23.5 - - 24.3 - - 20.3 - - 28.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 263 - - 278 - - 0 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2670 - - 5727 - - 5339 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98068 8 293 5 235 13 230 17 275 14 294 98068 91475 6 336 0 267 3 253 5 273 7 287 91475 86243 8 355 4 010 4 027 3 051 4 281 86243 81818 8 354 7 352 10 355 5 038 5 319 81818 77961 8 343 8 345 13 351 6 005 7 333 77961 74534 10 323 11 327 14 342 9 355 8 335 74534 71421 11 315 14 314 16 331 12 344 9 341 71421 68552 11 313 15 308 17 320 15 338 11 346 68552 65888 11 311 15 303 19 306 18 322 15 334 65888 63313 12 317 13 306 18 299 19 312 20 322 63313 60649 16 314 13 307 16 295 20 304 21 311 60649 57909 23 311 19 305 18 296 24 296 22 305 57909 55304 31 307 28 304 25 297 30 291 26 297 55304 52962 39 303 36 301 33 296 36 289 33 290 52962 50861 46 300 43 298 40 293 40 291 38 287 50861 48947 49 297 47 295 44 290 43 292 41 286 48947 47184 48 295 48 292 45 287 44 292 42 287 47184 45548 44 293 45 289 44 285 44 291 42 287 45548 44023 39 290 42 286 41 283 42 288 40 287 44023 42593 35 289 38 284 39 283 40 287 39 288 42593 41246 31 287 35 283 36 283 38 287 38 289 41246 39942 28 286 32 281 34 284 37 288 36 288 39942 38615 26 285 30 279 31 284 35 289 34 287 38615 37237 23 287 29 277 28 283 33 289 31 286 37237 35807 20 291 27 274 26 282 31 286 29 285 35807 34308 19 295 26 271 26 279 29 282 27 283 34308 32728 17 295 25 268 27 278 28 279 26 281 32728 31065 17 291 24 264 27 280 26 280 24 282 31065 29318 17 288 22 261 25 283 23 285 21 285 29318 27489 16 291 18 260 21 282 19 291 16 291 27489 25582 16 300 15 267 16 276 15 289 11 293 25582 23589 16 311 13 286 12 278 12 286 8 294 23589 21505 15 319 13 307 10 298 11 300 6 314 21505 19373 12 322 11 317 9 311 10 316 5 350 19373 17316 10 306 8 314 7 313 7 323 4 018 17316 15447 9 278 7 297 6 313 4 323 3 054 15447 13792 10 256 7 278 4 311 3 318 3 086 13792 12324 12 249 7 262 5 305 3 308 1 097 12324 11018 12 238 7 247 5*301 4*317 0 349 11018 9856 10 220 6 225 4*304 5*320 1 335 9856 8825 10 193 6 193 3 305 5 320 2 315 8825 7916 10 175 7*177 3 296 5 312 3 302 7916 7113 10 164 6*166 2 288 4 304 3 286 7113 6394 7 153 5 159 2 272 4 298 3 268 6394 5760 4 147 3 160 2 257 4 292 3 247 5760 5230 3 130 3 162 2 242 4 287 3 223 5230 4825 5 101 3 170 2 235 4 284 2 217 4825 4547 8 063 3 175 2 233 4 282 2 354 4547 4379 8*041 3 178 2 231 3 281 7*019 4379 4284 6*036 3 178 2 227 3 280 7*014 4284 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography