DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/11 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 59.1 - - 58.1 - - 56.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 29 - - 22 - - 9 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1216 - - 1194 - - 854 - - 200 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6044 - - 6022 - - 5682 - - 5028 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2230 - - 2251 - - 2041 - - 2306 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 153 - - 141 - - 97 - - 31 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 32 - - 27 - - 21 - - 11 BL Wind Direction - - - 187 - - 200 - - 202 - - 174 Direction Wind Shear - - - 22 - - 16 - - 13 - - 8 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 87 - - 71 - - 52 - - 24 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1671 - - 1649 - - 1309 - - 655 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4374 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 503 - - 562 - - 345 - - -411 ODpotential blCL - - - 5541 - - 5460 - - 5337 - - 5439 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 98 - - 94 maxRH CAPE - - - 190 - - 400 - - 320 - - 190 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 59.1 - - 58.1 - - 56.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 56.6 - - 56.9 - - 55.9 - - 55.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 59.7 - - 60.1 - - 59.2 - - 57.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 55.9 - - 56.3 - - 55.4 - - 55.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 29 - - 22 - - 9 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1216 - - 1194 - - 854 - - 200 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 102 - - 100 - - 92 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98009 35 275 33 289 31 298 28 294 98009 90661 16 270 17 270 24 277 23 286 90661 84997 8 263 9 247 14 278 14 295 84997 80307 10 259 10 236 14 268 11 275 80307 76291 5 308 4 253 10 241 5 277 76291 72755 3 282 4 272 4 210 7 266 72755 69568 6 128 4 228 1 008 3 155 69568 66645 3 286 1 340 4 068 6 132 66645 63943 6 283 11 228 9 240 3 168 63943 61340 9 069 8 143 6 178 11 231 61340 58641 17 254 11 240 15 252 17 224 58641 55880 21 257 18 231 18 220 25 203 55880 53251 19 265 11 283 26 196 35 186 53251 50847 26 250 20 256 24 208 29 173 50847 48649 33 248 34 237 41 234 28 212 48649 46629 39 251 37 234 54 230 47 232 46629 44765 46 252 39 228 55 228 61 232 44765 43031 50 250 50 223 53 230 69 229 43031 41404 52 246 51 224 56 232 67 226 41404 39868 52 242 48 230 59 233 64 231 39868 38418 52 238 54 231 61 235 71 239 38418 37023 53 235 56 230 65 237 83 242 37023 35617 55 230 58 228 70 238 90 241 35617 34172 58 226 60 228 73 238 89 240 34172 32698 60 225 63 228 72 236 83 238 32698 31188 63 226 65 229 69 234 75 236 31188 29636 65 226 65 231 69 231 70 235 29636 28043 68 226 69 232 71 232 68 235 28043 26410 73 225 75 231 76 231 68 237 26410 24737 79 224 81 229 78 228 66 237 24737 23026 82 222 82 227 77 224 63 233 23026 21273 80 218 77 223 65 223 59 229 21273 19469 78 213 65 219 50 221 56 228 19469 17647 77 209 55 218 48 222 49 228 17647 15900 69 207 54 219 45 222 40 224 15900 14311 67 206 53 219 41 221 35 218 14311 12895 61 204 47 215 38 220 34 216 12895 11629 59 204 44 211 37 217 34 215 11629 10495 54 200 40 206 36 213 34 214 10495 9476 53 199 40 206 36 211 33 215 9476 8564 51 197 39 204 35 210 32 216 8564 7751 48 194 37 203 33 209 29 217 7751 7023 44 192 34 202 30 208 26 218 7023 6365 41*189 32*201 28 207 22 214 6365 5776 39*189 31*201 27*207 20 209 5776 5279 35 187 29 201 25*205 17*199 5279 4895 32 186 27 200 22 203 14*186 4895 4629 28 185 25 200 20 201 12 172 4629 4467 25 184 24 200 19 200 10 166 4467 4373 17 184 15 199 12 198 7 164 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography