DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 07/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.5 - - 91.4 - - 98.9 - - 99.3 - - 89.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 124 - - 458 - - 515 - - 207 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1297 - - 5629 - - 11975 - - 14463 - - 257 BL Depth Hcrit 5084 - - 8955 - - 14193 - - 15577 - - 4359 Hcrit BL Top 6125 - - 10457 - - 16803 - - 19291 - - 5085 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1614 - - 1308 - - 4321 - - 2376 - - 10493 Hgt.Variab. W* 227 - - 571 - - 764 - - 601 - - 15 W* B/S 9 - - 15 - - 25 - - 17 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 19 BL Wind Direction 135 - - 287 - - 310 - - 300 - - 279 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 7 - - 24 - - 25 - - 16 Wind Shear Max.Converg 6 - - 6 - - 16 - - 43 - - 21 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6071 - - -4455 - - -535 - - 1503 - - -10241 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12196 - - 14912 - - 17339 - - 17788 - - 15326 sfcLCL ODpotential -11243 - - -6956 - - -1907 - - 1001 - - -12945 ODpotential blCL 17368 - - 17413 - - 18710 - - 18290 - - 18030 blCL maxRH 56 - - 44 - - 62 - - 96 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 60 - - 230 - - 210 - - 100 CAPE Temp@2m 78.5 - - 91.4 - - 98.9 - - 99.3 - - 89.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.6 - - 40.9 - - 37.0 - - 35.5 - - 37.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 78.5 - - 89.5 - - 96.8 - - 98.8 - - 91.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.5 - - 40.8 - - 36.9 - - 35.5 - - 37.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 124 - - 458 - - 515 - - 207 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1297 - - 5629 - - 11975 - - 14463 - - 257 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 85 - - 18 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99075 44 100 38 108 34 110 37 104 37 100 99075 91592 37 102 36 106 33 116 31 099 33 105 91592 85802 37 103 35 107 35 107 32 112 29 100 85802 81016 32 096 31 101 30 098 37 111 25 097 81016 76897 26 095 29 095 32 110 30 105 29 102 76897 73255 21 091 27 090 30 107 24 108 26 097 73255 69976 22 090 19 097 23 092 22 101 24 092 69976 66990 24 096 19 105 14 083 19 088 23 082 66990 64238 20 087 19 097 14 112 13 077 14 086 64238 61578 15 044 19 084 17 124 9 091 8 089 61578 58805 6 087 13 036 14 067 16 069 16 069 58805 55956 15 071 6 062 11 032 13 032 18 026 55956 53287 27 027 18 039 16 041 13 035 15 031 53287 50896 34 018 27 022 21 035 14 029 15 023 50896 48737 36 017 30 016 25 022 20 024 18 010 48737 46765 37 019 30 015 27 015 24 020 20 008 46765 44946 36 021 29 020 28 011 25 021 20 009 44946 43255 35 023 29 025 27 011 23 023 20 013 43255 41674 34 023 29 023 27 016 22 024 21 017 41674 40189 32 024 28 023 28 021 22 025 21 018 40189 38793 28 024 26 027 26 024 21 028 19 015 38793 37452 21 023 25 031 21 028 20 034 17 021 37452 36101 15 016 24 028 17 036 18 035 14 035 36101 34712 8 006 18 024 15 034 14 034 8 041 34712 33291 5 028 10 048 10 024 12 031 5 060 33291 31823 8 057 11 070 5 044 11 355 3 051 31823 30298 11 052 11 054 9 051 8 358 3 012 30298 28719 12 046 10 030 10 042 8 029 7 022 28719 27088 10 047 10 039 11 049 9 028 14 024 27088 25410 8 043 13 049 13 052 12 037 18 032 25410 23689 9 049 13 048 12 044 21 039 20 041 23689 21917 14 069 12 043 15 040 23 030 22 049 21917 20086 18 067 14 046 22 040 22*018 23 056 20086 18225 18 048 17 046 22*038 18*007 21 057 18225 16432 15 025 16 040 17*027 13 354 16 045 16432 14796 15 015 14 038 12 006 11 343 14 025 14796 13331 17 015 14 037 9 345 8 328 12 005 13331 12016 19 006 14 023 8 323 7 301 11 343 12016 10831 16 343 10*347 7 311 7 274 11 321 10831 9763 13 311 9*305 7 285 8 263 12 303 9763 8803 13 290 8 299 8 267 8 253 15 291 8803 7945 13 282 8 294 8 258 9 247 17 285 7945 7177 10 279 7 287 8 253 10 243 20 282 7177 6480 5*276 7 282 8 248 10 241 23 279 6480 5858 1*157 6 276 9 244 10 239 27 277 5858 5333 5 133 6 271 9 241 10 237 27*276 5333 4927 6 133 5 266 8 239 10 235 25*278 4927 4646 6 134 5 264 8 238 10 235 20 280 4646 4474 5 135 5 262 8 238 10 235 17 281 4474 4375 5 136 4 260 7 237 9 233 9 282 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography