DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/19 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1001z - - 1335z - - 1601z - - 1902z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.6 - - 83.2 - - 90.2 - - 87.2 - - 75.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 109 - - 455 - - 497 - - 214 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1499 - - 5587 - - 11428 - - 10559 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 5146 - - 8921 - - 13725 - - 12485 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 6327 - - 10415 - - 16256 - - 15387 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1732 - - 3454 - - 1031 - - 1313 - - 7511 Hgt.Variab. W* 228 - - 569 - - 745 - - 549 - - 5 W* B/S 38 - - 15 - - 11 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 7 - - 12 - - 16 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 275 - - 257 - - 257 - - 256 - - 232 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 6 - - 8 - - 6 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg 2 - - 11 - - 62 - - 65 - - 20 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8972 - - -7020 - - -2640 - - -2894 - - -10488 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 15300 - - 17436 - - 18896 - - 18282 - - 14864 sfcLCL ODpotential -14238 - - -11666 - - -6923 - - -7026 - - -16457 ODpotential blCL 20565 - - 22081 - - 23179 - - 22413 - - 20832 blCL maxRH 34 - - 32 - - 51 - - 69 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 73.6 - - 83.2 - - 90.2 - - 87.2 - - 75.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.8 - - 21.0 - - 20.8 - - 20.9 - - 25.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.7 - - 81.4 - - 88.2 - - 86.9 - - 78.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.6 - - 20.6 - - 20.7 - - 20.8 - - 25.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 109 - - 455 - - 497 - - 214 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1499 - - 5587 - - 11428 - - 10559 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 29 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97881 4 327 4 173 5 248 7 015 7 302 97881 90388 5 066 6 176 6 119 4 133 9 066 90388 84643 5 048 0 018 2 021 3 094 7 059 84643 79907 7 048 2 069 5 268 9 358 13 066 79907 75840 5 019 2 016 8 263 6 326 9 031 75840 72253 7 340 7 341 8 266 8 316 9 020 72253 69003 12 315 7 289 13 269 15 279 16 330 69003 66016 22 306 18 298 18 308 19 291 24 285 66016 63256 25 281 27 284 28 299 21 291 27 295 63256 60596 24 278 29 287 30 297 31 296 33 298 60596 57832 37 293 36 291 38 289 42 292 39 294 57832 54977 40 289 37 286 41 284 45 286 43 289 54977 52266 33 294 33 292 37 285 43 287 46 291 52266 49844 30 307 34 312 31 301 37 292 45 296 49844 47694 30 321 35 318 33 311 35 310 42 300 47694 45772 18 318 29 314 27 321 35 313 38 306 45772 44036 10 002 23 332 32 340 37 325 33 309 44036 42427 27 012 31 352 37 349 35 330 32 310 42427 40910 36 010 34 357 34 351 31 329 35 315 40910 39474 36 009 29 358 21 358 32 326 39 318 39474 38117 31 007 24 001 26 353 34 324 42 317 38117 36809 27 009 22 005 24 351 35 322 42 314 36809 35488 27 013 18 006 23 345 35 321 41 311 35488 34127 29 018 11 003 23 340 35 319 40 311 34127 32730 31 020 10 011 23 338 34 319 38 311 32730 31285 33 020 13 013 25 336 33 318 37 308 31285 29783 32 023 17 007 24 333 32 315 38 302 29783 28227 30 028 19 360 20 327 30 310 39 297 28227 26617 25 038 18 356 17 317 27 302 38 297 26617 24958 20 049 15 004 16 312 26 297 34 301 24958 23255 13 042 14 352 15 308 25 302 31 305 23255 21501 6 002 17 328 20 314 25 311 29 307 21501 19689 7 304 19 317 20 318 24 323 26 308 19689 17851 11 296 14 302 17*314 19 326 23 305 17851 16085 11 287 9 296 14*281 10*296 20 289 16085 14479 10 243 10 287 13 263 9*264 15 269 14479 13052 8 251 10 272 12 261 10 261 11 251 13052 11775 7 285 9 281 12 259 13 258 12 254 11775 10628 7 299 9*280 12 256 15 257 15 258 10628 9596 8 297 9*272 12 254 17 256 19 257 9596 8668 10 294 9 267 12 253 19 256 21 255 8668 7839 11 291 8 264 12 252 20 256 23 252 7839 7096 10 289 8 260 12 251 20 255 23 250 7096 6422 7*291 7 253 11 250 20 255 24 249 6422 5817 3*293 6 248 11 249 20 255 23 247 5817 5307 1 284 6 242 11 248 20 254 21 246 5307 4912 1 273 5 236 11 247 20 254 18 243 4912 4638 1 253 5 233 11 247 19 254 14 239 4638 4470 1 239 5 231 10 247 18 254 11*236 4470 4374 1 235 5 230 9 246 15 253 5*227 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography