DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/03 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 66.3 - - 76.0 - - 78.0 - - 78.6 - - 69.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 108 - - 462 - - 268 - - 172 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1487 - - 9921 - - 12883 - - 11547 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 5121 - - 12446 - - 14520 - - 13098 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 6315 - - 14749 - - 17711 - - 16375 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3090 - - 2222 - - 1046 - - 2015 - - 11554 Hgt.Variab. W* 227 - - 694 - - 632 - - 527 - - 0 W* B/S 7 - - 8 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 15 - - 18 - - 19 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 147 - - 190 - - 200 - - 212 - - 206 Direction Wind Shear 7 - - 14 - - 7 - - 7 - - 6 Wind Shear Max.Converg 6 - - 31 - - 41 - - 43 - - 21 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4206 - - 2530 - - 4420 - - 754 - - -7538 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10521 - - 12219 - - 13292 - - 15622 - - 11913 sfcLCL ODpotential -6508 - - 1081 - - 2789 - - -1231 - - -9644 ODpotential blCL 12823 - - 13668 - - 14922 - - 17606 - - 14019 blCL maxRH 76 - - 66 - - 90 - - 64 - - 96 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 150 - - 190 - - 0 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 66.3 - - 76.0 - - 78.0 - - 78.6 - - 69.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.5 - - 37.2 - - 34.4 - - 24.5 - - 32.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.5 - - 74.4 - - 77.3 - - 78.6 - - 73.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.4 - - 37.1 - - 34.3 - - 24.5 - - 32.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 108 - - 462 - - 268 - - 172 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1487 - - 9921 - - 12883 - - 11547 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 4 - - 0 - - 61 - - 0 - - 83 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97907 22 244 28 247 29 255 23 263 29 264 97907 90405 18 245 24 249 23 255 18 282 25 256 90405 84618 13 266 15 245 20 249 23 276 19 290 84618 79848 12 276 12 265 15 249 30 261 26 293 79848 75788 19 274 15 271 14 272 22 270 24 296 75788 72232 25 272 22 279 18 279 20 297 19 302 72232 69012 25 275 24 282 25 283 24 289 20 296 69012 66048 23 286 25 282 24 291 24 292 23 289 66048 63291 26 284 28 285 33 287 27 289 26 291 63291 60615 27 287 32 284 31 278 33 277 34 281 60615 57831 34 287 35 284 35 281 35 278 37 288 57831 54942 49 280 42 275 51 283 46 291 47 294 54942 52184 57 272 56 271 64 275 59 283 56 289 52184 49710 54 270 59 270 67 274 64 282 65 285 49710 47509 62 278 68 276 77 273 75 277 77 277 47509 45538 80 276 78 272 75 269 76 271 84 275 45538 43745 90 272 79 271 78 271 81 268 96 274 43745 42090 92 272 88 272 84 271 88 266 104 270 42090 40545 89 275 92 272 84 271 89 267 106 270 40545 39091 87 275 90 274 83 272 89 270 109 273 39091 37721 90 274 90 275 82 273 93 273 112 275 37721 36406 92 274 91 275 82 274 96 274 115 276 36406 35081 86 275 88 273 82 275 94 274 113 277 35081 33720 74 276 82 269 83 274 88 273 106 279 33720 32329 62 278 79 263 81 271 82 272 95 279 32329 30897 51 278 78 261 79 267 79 271 83 277 30897 29413 39 271 71 264 75 264 77 269 75 276 29413 27879 39 260 55 264 70 262 75 267 70 275 27879 26293 42 257 42 260 62 261 71 266 67 273 26293 24657 42 258 39 254 50 257 63 264 63 270 24657 22977 37 261 40 257 41 252 51 259 57 267 22977 21250 31 262 37 257 36 249 42 252 48 260 21250 19474 28 261 29 250 28*239 34 244 41 251 19474 17680 27 253 22 236 20*223 27*232 34 239 17680 15957 22 241 21*228 18 213 20*217 30 221 15957 14387 17 227 20*223 18 207 19 212 26 207 14387 12983 14 200 17 211 18 202 19 212 22 216 12983 11721 15 181 16 193 18 200 19 212 21 219 11721 10585 16 176 16 183 18 199 19 211 20 221 10585 9560 16 174 16 181 18 198 20 211 20 221 9560 8640 16 171 16 180 19 197 20 211 19 221 8640 7816 16 166 16 180 19 197 20 211 19 221 7816 7077 15 159 16 180 18 196 20 211 18 220 7077 6407 14*154 15 180 18 196 20 211 17 219 6407 5807 10*149 15 179 18 195 20 211 16 217 5807 5300 6 146 15 179 17 195 19 211 14 214 5300 4907 4 147 14 180 17 195 19 211 12 212 4907 4635 4 147 14 180 16 195 18 211 9 209 4635 4469 4 149 13 180 16 195 17 210 7*205 4469 4374 3 151 12 180 13 195 14 211 4*204 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography