DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/05 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1328z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2152z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.2 - - 52.1 - - 56.4 - - 52.8 - - 46.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 58 - - 92 - - -10 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 158 - - 2876 - - 4652 - - 3196 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5699 - - 7399 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4986 - - 7704 - - 9480 - - 8024 - - 4373 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2769 - - 1492 - - 1890 - - 2496 - - 3706 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 238 - - 323 - - 48 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 10 - - 14 - - 14 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 170 - - 201 - - 214 - - 210 - - 161 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 8 - - 10 - - 10 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg 9 - - 17 - - 41 - - 43 - - 14 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 614 - - 3170 - - 2415 - - 1734 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4372 - - 4534 - - 7066 - - 6290 - - 4372 sfcLCL ODpotential 174 - - 1400 - - 786 - - 169 - - -1204 ODpotential blCL 4812 - - 6304 - - 8694 - - 7855 - - 5577 blCL maxRH 99 - - 98 - - 90 - - 93 - - 97 maxRH CAPE 70 - - 100 - - 50 - - 40 - - 80 CAPE Temp@2m 48.2 - - 52.1 - - 56.4 - - 52.8 - - 46.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.1 - - 47.1 - - 40.5 - - 40.3 - - 45.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.9 - - 52.6 - - 56.8 - - 54.5 - - 49.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.6 - - 46.2 - - 39.5 - - 40.1 - - 45.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 58 - - 92 - - -10 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 158 - - 2876 - - 4652 - - 3196 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 96 - - 91 - - 61 - - 73 - - 87 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96264 59 290 47 283 55 284 59 290 56 286 96264 89034 50 293 43 297 45 293 42 297 38 293 89034 83436 33 290 38 291 39 290 37 297 37 299 83436 78803 28 292 29 293 29 286 30 296 36 298 78803 74856 27 302 24 300 19 287 21 297 27 290 74856 71382 27 293 25 290 22 289 20 284 16 286 71382 68217 31 280 29 284 33 290 28 291 27 298 68217 65296 31 277 34 278 42 288 39 283 39 281 65296 62602 37 267 42 260 54 264 47 268 43 270 62602 60008 43 264 49 255 58 257 50 267 47 263 60008 57304 47 262 51 257 54 256 52 264 52 260 57304 54491 52 262 51 263 50 259 55 256 57 256 54491 51801 56 264 55 267 52 266 57 256 59 253 51801 49373 63 265 63 266 61 269 63 263 60 257 49373 47186 73 266 73 264 74 268 76 266 68 262 47186 45192 81 265 83 263 86 264 88 262 80 262 45192 43360 88 262 94 262 99 260 97 258 90 260 43360 41670 96 258 102 258 109 259 103 256 97 257 41670 40102 101 255 105 256 114 257 106 256 105 255 40102 38642 101 254 103 255 113 256 109 256 109 254 38642 37278 97 254 99 256 109 254 109 255 110 254 37278 35974 92 255 96 257 106 254 106 254 108 255 35974 34664 89 256 94 257 106 254 103 253 106 255 34664 33317 88 260 92 257 103 256 102 253 104 254 33317 31938 87 263 90 257 97 257 99 254 101 254 31938 30515 84 264 85 256 92 258 94 254 97 256 30515 29038 77 262 80 254 86 258 87 254 91 256 29038 27508 72 258 77 253 81 256 82 255 85 254 27508 25926 69 254 75 254 77 254 76 256 78 252 25926 24300 65 253 71 253 74 254 70 256 66 255 24300 22639 61 252 64 251 69 254 63 257 57 262 22639 20932 55 252 58 248 63 253 57 261 54 267 20932 19166 50 253 53 248 56 254 52 263 51 266 19166 17377 45 253 50 249 51 255 48 264 45 264 17377 15660 40 252 45 250 45 258 41 266 37 262 15660 14102 36 250 38 251 38 259 34 268 29 259 14102 12713 32 250 32 252 33 257 27 267 24 255 12713 11473 30 250 28 251 26 252 22 261 22 248 11473 10363 28 248 24 248 19*243 17 250 20 242 10363 9369 23 242 20 241 16*234 15 242 18 238 9369 8478 17 233 16*230 15 230 14*236 17 237 8478 7682 13 222 13*218 14 223 15*230 15 236 7682 6971 10 212 11 210 14 213 15 221 15 233 6971 6325 9 207 10 204 14 208 15 212 14 226 6325 5748 8 201 10 197 14 204 15 207 12 216 5748 5261 7*194 9 192 14 201 15 203 11 204 5261 4884 6*187 8 189 13 199 14 199 10 192 4884 4623 4 172 8 188 13 198 13 195 9 177 4623 4464 3 150 7 188 12 197 11 193 7*165 4464 4372 2 143 7 187 11 196 8 191 4*157 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography