DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 11/04 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.5 - - 56.4 - - 59.7 - - 56.9 - - 51.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 48 - - 23 - - -2 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1965 - - 3242 - - 1699 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6793 - - 8070 - - 6527 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2688 - - 1560 - - 1960 - - 3176 - - 3841 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 214 - - 222 - - 47 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 52 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 9 - - 7 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 059 - - 194 - - 303 - - 322 - - 355 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 10 - - 8 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -9 - - 2 - - 5 - - -8 - - -11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1741 - - 520 - - 955 - - 858 - - -1442 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6115 - - 6273 - - 7116 - - 5669 - - 5816 sfcLCL ODpotential -9519 - - -4855 - - -3075 - - -3706 - - -6260 ODpotential blCL 13893 - - 11648 - - 11145 - - 10233 - - 10634 blCL maxRH 54 - - 64 - - 61 - - 58 - - 54 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.5 - - 56.4 - - 59.7 - - 56.9 - - 51.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.0 - - 43.9 - - 43.5 - - 47.0 - - 41.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.8 - - 57.0 - - 60.6 - - 59.9 - - 57.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.8 - - 42.6 - - 42.3 - - 45.6 - - 40.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 48 - - 23 - - -2 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1965 - - 3242 - - 1699 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96804 59 277 77 279 64 280 60 272 67 276 96804 89649 41 282 47 273 43 285 41 284 44 279 89649 84134 30 295 21 285 26 280 29 286 29 290 84134 79570 26 296 19 305 15 277 22 286 26 308 79570 75620 18 280 17 283 15 283 18 287 22 299 75620 72121 6 285 10 264 13 279 12 307 15 290 72121 68953 10 330 4 249 11 280 13 333 8 313 68953 66022 13 299 11 262 18 273 18 293 12 287 66022 63291 8 319 7 254 17 246 17 271 18 273 63291 60653 14 329 4 343 4 170 8 245 20 276 60653 57922 18 301 23 289 21 288 18 289 24 291 57922 55104 29 287 27 293 29 288 33 297 31 302 55104 52408 36 285 47 288 44 294 42 293 35 300 52408 49952 55 289 56 285 51 294 46 294 43 299 49952 47726 66 287 63 283 60 290 60 284 55 286 47726 45701 74 281 71 278 69 280 68 280 64 282 45701 43849 81 275 75 276 74 279 72 283 69 283 43849 42145 84 273 79 281 76 281 76 284 74 286 42145 40564 85 274 83 283 77 283 79 282 77 287 40564 39092 87 277 85 283 79 284 78 282 77 285 39092 37717 89 280 87 283 79 283 76 282 75 283 37717 36404 91 282 88 282 80 283 77 283 74 284 36404 35086 93 281 90 282 81 285 78 284 73 287 35086 33735 94 279 91 281 83 285 76 286 71 291 33735 32352 94 277 91 282 83 284 74 286 68 292 32352 30923 95 278 90 284 81 283 73 285 67 292 30923 29438 96 279 88 281 79 282 73 285 67 292 29438 27899 95 278 88 278 78 282 73 286 67 292 27899 26306 91 274 86 276 78 282 71 287 65 292 26306 24661 86 271 83 277 79 283 71 288 65 293 24661 22968 81 275 81 279 79 283 71 287 66 295 22968 21220 78 282 77 282 78 285 71 289 65 298 21220 19413 71 287 72 286 74 286 69 292 61 301 19413 17587 60 285 63 285 66 285 61 296 53 306 17587 15838 51 275 55 282 56 285 49 302 43 312 15838 14251 46 267 47 279 47 287 40 310 35 317 14251 12840 38 262 41 278 39 289 34 315 28 322 12840 11580 29 259 35 278 31 290 28 318 20 329 11580 10452 22 253 29 276 25 288 20 316 13 338 10452 9442 19 250 23 273 20 288 15 306 8 345 9442 8538 14 248 17 268 16*290 12 295 7 357 8538 7731 11 250 12 265 14*294 11 293 7 008 7731 7009 8 256 8*264 11 300 10*302 8 010 7009 6354 4 262 4*265 9 304 9*309 9 010 6354 5768 2 252 0 195 8 307 8 316 9 007 5768 5274 2 151 1 161 7 308 7 322 8 001 5274 4892 3 119 1 145 6 309 6 329 7 359 4892 4627 3 090 1 145 6 309 5 339 6 358 4627 4466 4*069 1 142 5 310 3 353 5*354 4466 4373 4*059 1 146 4 310 3 012 4*356 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography