DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/31 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.0 - - 59.9 - - 68.2 - - 68.0 - - 53.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 115 - - 186 - - -2 - - -43 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1480 - - 4384 - - 5004 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5221 - - 7605 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6308 - - 9212 - - 9832 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 800 - - 1393 - - 1878 - - 2264 - - 434 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 233 - - 392 - - 67 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 15 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 303 - - 063 - - 089 - - 071 - - 042 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -8 - - 20 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6406 - - -5786 - - -4179 - - -3709 - - -7315 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10779 - - 12094 - - 13392 - - 13541 - - 11689 sfcLCL ODpotential -17518 - - -12751 - - -9307 - - -8626 - - -15602 ODpotential blCL 21891 - - 19059 - - 18519 - - 18458 - - 19976 blCL maxRH 36 - - 46 - - 40 - - 46 - - 39 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 43.0 - - 59.9 - - 68.2 - - 68.0 - - 53.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 12.3 - - 22.6 - - 24.7 - - 23.9 - - 18.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.6 - - 60.1 - - 67.8 - - 69.4 - - 58.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 11.5 - - 21.8 - - 23.8 - - 22.8 - - 18.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 115 - - 186 - - -2 - - -43 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1480 - - 4384 - - 5004 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95665 52 276 60 270 56 275 53 283 53 268 95665 88665 34 278 44 276 44 276 43 285 37 296 88665 83331 25 293 30 273 34 286 37 285 30 301 83331 78855 22 298 15 303 24 291 29 286 24 308 78855 74952 28 320 18 345 20 284 24 285 24 316 74952 71484 36 322 26 347 18 321 18 296 25 312 71484 68350 31 299 30 336 27 331 21 316 28 321 68350 65494 22 289 26 304 28 319 27 321 30 318 65494 62882 27 340 22 278 27 302 26 322 26 305 62882 60360 47 342 19 302 27 288 23 323 21 305 60360 57699 56 317 35 318 29 309 24 322 25 314 57699 54908 54 298 50 310 40 323 33 321 32 318 54908 52232 47 292 53 298 50 312 43 321 38 311 52232 49806 44 299 48 298 49 300 47 314 40 307 49806 47610 48 303 47 306 49 299 50 306 44 305 47610 45610 53 300 49 307 50 293 50 297 43 304 45610 43785 47 295 45 304 45 292 49 295 38 309 43785 42113 41 295 40 299 39 298 45 292 38 309 42113 40577 39 317 37 292 36 296 47 296 38 303 40577 39152 39 322 36 297 39 289 43 302 36 297 39152 37814 36 317 35 306 36 284 33 306 28 294 37814 36527 34 313 37 311 35 295 30 307 20 305 36527 35229 35 310 37 311 34 302 31 317 19 318 35229 33892 34 312 35 310 31 316 36 335 22 330 33892 32519 30 317 32 309 33 327 38 339 24 335 32519 31098 27 321 29 311 32 330 37 340 23 331 31098 29620 28 328 29 318 31 335 34 344 19 328 29620 28086 30 334 30 323 30 341 33 355 20 356 28086 26499 30 340 30 328 30 348 33 008 24 012 26499 24858 32 349 31 339 32 356 31 014 28 019 24858 23165 33 356 34 352 34 003 27 015 30 023 23165 21416 35 001 37 003 33 009 25 015 25 024 21416 19609 38 007 36 010 30 013 22 013 19 024 19609 17776 37 010 33 013 26 014 19 008 16 018 17776 16011 34 011 29 018 23 014 17 009 15 008 16011 14402 31 014 24 028 21 020 17 020 15 009 14402 12964 26 018 19 039 17 030 16 027 15 021 12964 11681 20 021 15 046 12 044 13 022 14 037 11681 10533 14 024 11 059 8 061 9*024 12 047 10533 9506 11 034 9 079 8*078 6*047 7 044 9506 8586 9 052 9 092 7*081 5 059 3 029 8586 7767 10 067 10 096 6 082 5 069 0 338 7767 7033 12 076 10 092 6 084 5 074 1 126 7033 6370 13 080 9*083 5 087 5 077 3 073 6370 5777 14 077 7*072 4 091 5 081 8 060 5777 5278 13 068 5 061 3 100 4 083 15 060 5278 4893 9 047 3 056 3 110 4 086 19 060 4893 4627 6 010 2 055 3 117 4 089 18 053 4627 4465 5*327 2 054 2 119 3 089 13*048 4465 4373 6*303 1 051 2 122 3 091 7*042 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography