DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/07 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 86.5 - - 91.0 - - 89.9 - - 81.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 394 - - 425 - - 127 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5841 - - 9899 - - 9312 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 9068 - - 12383 - - 11081 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top - - - 10669 - - 14727 - - 14140 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3635 - - 1858 - - 2583 - - 6350 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 551 - - 674 - - 442 - - 7 W* B/S - - - 10 - - 11 - - 9 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 11 - - 9 - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - 288 - - 276 - - 296 - - 329 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 6 - - 3 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -20 - - -14 - - -18 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1380 - - 1591 - - 1103 - - -7037 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12050 - - 13137 - - 13038 - - 11413 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2914 - - 386 - - -378 - - -10437 ODpotential blCL - - - 13583 - - 14341 - - 14518 - - 14813 blCL maxRH - - - 82 - - 84 - - 87 - - 86 maxRH CAPE - - - 50 - - 170 - - 190 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 86.5 - - 91.0 - - 89.9 - - 81.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 48.5 - - 48.0 - - 47.5 - - 47.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.0 - - 89.3 - - 89.8 - - 84.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 48.4 - - 47.8 - - 47.4 - - 47.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 394 - - 425 - - 127 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5841 - - 9899 - - 9312 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 28 - - 36 - - 47 - - 43 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98894 15 108 22 105 16 129 14 091 98894 91422 17 110 16 120 11 079 17 099 91422 85642 17 098 13 133 9 080 15 074 85642 80873 6 109 9 112 11 107 12 061 80873 76790 10 096 11 093 12 090 12 072 76790 73196 14 079 9 112 9 084 10 085 73196 69946 9 096 10 060 10 107 8 093 69946 66961 11 115 4 133 8 080 2 066 66961 64209 7 122 13 143 3 181 3 178 64209 61574 5 119 11 174 9 189 9 220 61574 58847 16 235 14 233 11 209 14 226 58847 56052 25 220 30 230 29 243 24 263 56052 53425 29 243 33 236 36 237 29 252 53425 51064 44 249 44 247 40 245 36 239 51064 48924 47 253 44 250 39 245 39 234 48924 46956 53 264 49 259 44 255 40 247 46956 45135 58 258 57 257 52 257 49 254 45135 43436 60 240 55 248 56 254 54 252 43436 41836 62 232 58 238 57 250 54 250 41836 40327 61 222 58 229 58 239 54 243 40327 38907 58 218 57 221 58 232 56 236 38907 37545 53 219 51 223 55 226 56 233 37545 36176 48 223 46 226 49 228 51 233 36176 34772 44 228 42 230 41 231 43 234 34772 33338 41 231 39 233 36 234 34 232 33338 31853 38 233 37 235 35 232 33 233 31853 30312 36 231 36 234 34 226 32 227 30312 28718 34 230 34 232 33 225 31 228 28718 27072 33 230 34 233 31 227 30 230 27072 25375 32 233 33 232 28 228 28 230 25375 23634 30 234 31 227 27 228 25 229 23634 21844 29 231 31 225 27 231 22 230 21844 20001 26 236 26 232 24 236 19 235 20001 18137 19 244 19 245 16 239 15 235 18137 16344 16 255 15*255 9 248 10 232 16344 14711 15 264 13*262 6*271 6 213 14711 13251 15 266 11 269 6*283 4 183 13251 11943 14 267 11 272 7 289 2 178 11943 10766 14*273 11 275 8 292 2 275 10766 9708 12*283 11 277 8 295 6 311 9708 8757 11 291 11 279 9 298 10 314 8757 7909 10 292 11 281 10 299 12 319 7909 7149 10 292 11 282 10 300 15 325 7149 6460 10 290 11 283 11 300 17 328 6460 5844 10 289 11 284 11 300 19 330 5844 5324 10 287 10 284 11 300 19 330 5324 4922 10 284 10 284 11 300 18 330 4922 4642 9 283 10 284 10 300 15 329 4642 4472 9 283 9 284 10 300 12*329 4472 4375 8 282 8 284 9 300 7*330 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography