DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/19 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0954z - - 1331z - - 1555z - - 1858z - - 2155z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 43.6 - - 50.9 - - 56.9 - - 53.2 - - 45.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 5 - - 253 - - 387 - - 33 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 928 - - 3264 - - 6543 - - 6044 - - 1142 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 6901 - - 9623 - - 6993 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5756 - - 8092 - - 11371 - - 10872 - - 5970 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1806 - - 1364 - - 2408 - - 1700 - - 2196 Hgt.Variab. W* 80 - - 394 - - 570 - - 248 - - 73 W* B/S 3 - - 6 - - 6 - - 3 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 13 - - 16 - - 18 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 126 - - 168 - - 197 - - 211 - - 087 Direction Wind Shear 13 - - 5 - - 11 - - 8 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg 10 - - 23 - - 34 - - 38 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1237 - - -916 - - 855 - - 1393 - - -80 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6994 - - 9008 - - 10517 - - 9480 - - 6050 sfcLCL ODpotential -6787 - - -3894 - - -345 - - 200 - - -2586 ODpotential blCL 12543 - - 11986 - - 11716 - - 10672 - - 8556 blCL maxRH 86 - - 82 - - 91 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 43.6 - - 50.9 - - 56.9 - - 53.2 - - 45.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.5 - - 26.8 - - 25.9 - - 26.9 - - 34.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.6 - - 50.4 - - 55.8 - - 54.1 - - 46.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.5 - - 25.8 - - 25.3 - - 26.6 - - 34.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 5 - - 253 - - 387 - - 33 - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 928 - - 3264 - - 6543 - - 6044 - - 1142 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 44 - - 27 - - 65 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96608 20 262 17 262 20 228 23 264 29 283 96608 89258 11 214 14 240 12 250 8 247 16 297 89258 83637 3 241 8 197 8 239 7 278 10 291 83637 78975 5 332 4 139 5 220 7 284 1 280 78975 74972 5 310 3 077 2 317 5 327 4 322 74972 71469 7 295 4 304 8 317 9 335 5 314 71469 68310 10 301 10 305 15 306 15 314 8 318 68310 65399 15 294 18 291 19 306 20 307 15 319 65399 62681 19 289 21 276 27 294 26 292 19 319 62681 60031 19 287 30 288 30 291 35 293 33 302 60031 57265 29 289 31 291 31 293 40 288 38 302 57265 54385 29 301 38 296 37 300 42 297 48 303 54385 51622 38 300 39 295 46 303 52 300 53 297 51622 49128 43 293 48 299 59 298 58 299 52 298 49128 46898 45 297 52 291 62 295 59 303 56 302 46898 44888 51 303 48 304 58 306 63 311 62 307 44888 43060 67 316 71 320 76 317 79 317 79 310 43060 41382 87 320 98 317 95 309 100 310 99 304 41382 39832 91 316 101 305 96 295 101 300 104 296 39832 38390 84 314 87 305 83 298 88 295 102 294 38390 37042 81 311 88 311 85 306 92 300 106 296 37042 35750 78 305 96 313 90 308 105 305 110 298 35750 34450 72 299 89 313 92 306 112 308 112 299 34450 33111 67 296 66 306 96 304 110 308 109 301 33111 31738 56 299 54 295 96 304 102 306 107 305 31738 30321 48 301 50 293 85 303 94 303 106 308 30321 28850 42 310 46 295 70 299 88 302 100 309 28850 27329 37 310 42 298 59 292 78 300 86 305 27329 25761 34 302 39 298 52 289 67 294 66 298 25761 24150 35 291 37 290 42 289 65 289 63 290 24150 22498 36 274 37 283 38 288 59 288 61 286 22498 20798 26 262 34 267 36 286 50 281 50 280 20798 19045 16 266 29 243 33 285 43 273 36 264 19045 17273 15 254 26 215 30 270 38 274 35 265 17273 15570 13 244 21 210 31 238 37 271 39 278 15570 14021 14 238 18 222 31 218 33 258 41 277 14021 12641 15 236 18 236 25 219 24 238 41 266 12641 11410 15 240 19 235 22*224 20*218 40 251 11410 10309 13 238 19 221 19*217 19*212 36 238 10309 9321 10 224 18 205 17 206 19 211 30 228 9321 8436 8 190 16*190 16 197 19 210 23 217 8436 7646 10 165 14*174 16 195 18 210 16 204 7646 6941 16 159 14 169 16 193 18 211 11 187 6941 6302 17*152 13 166 16 191 17 211 7*156 6302 5732 13*144 13 166 15 190 17 211 7*116 5732 5251 8 134 13 166 15 188 17 211 7 094 5251 4878 4 109 12 167 15 187 16 211 8 082 4878 4620 3 076 11 167 14 187 15 211 8 075 4620 4463 2 060 11 167 13 186 14 212 8 073 4463 4372 2 044 9 167 12 187 11 213 7 070 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography