DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/04 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 33.5 - - 45.4 - - 50.2 - - 45.2 - - 38.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 56 - - 70 - - -8 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1430 - - 3369 - - 783 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 4356 - - 6320 - - 4356 - - 4355 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6258 - - 8197 - - 5611 - - 4373 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1087 - - 2438 - - 1225 - - 3080 - - 454 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 191 - - 271 - - 32 - - 11 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 7 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 7 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 306 - - 057 - - 080 - - 069 - - 027 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 3 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -10 - - 7 - - -14 - - -15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1819 - - -1072 - - -576 - - -1852 - - -2638 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6192 - - 7330 - - 8773 - - 7463 - - 7011 sfcLCL ODpotential -11647 - - -8234 - - -7627 - - -9639 - - -12066 ODpotential blCL 16020 - - 14492 - - 15824 - - 15250 - - 16439 blCL maxRH 46 - - 76 - - 70 - - 41 - - 50 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 33.5 - - 45.4 - - 50.2 - - 45.2 - - 38.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.1 - - 28.8 - - 27.2 - - 28.1 - - 23.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 38.2 - - 45.9 - - 50.6 - - 48.2 - - 42.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.0 - - 27.7 - - 26.1 - - 26.8 - - 22.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 56 - - 70 - - -8 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1430 - - 3369 - - 783 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96279 11 158 8 262 1 345 3 218 5 257 96279 89229 7 089 4 084 7 088 2 117 2 309 89229 83783 6 035 7 106 10 054 7 070 5 059 83783 79237 11 037 6 082 6 051 4 047 8 041 79237 75302 18 015 12 010 11 026 9 059 14 029 75302 71826 16 012 7 358 10 015 10 033 12 018 71826 68683 13 002 6 347 9 012 12 032 9 044 68683 65781 9 339 13 359 13 019 18 032 13 040 65781 63081 1 277 16 350 13 011 17 024 15 025 63081 60469 11 033 12 347 13 003 15 022 16 019 60469 57754 13 031 12 015 15 011 20 014 15 026 57754 54928 22 010 17 026 19 028 21 024 25 036 54928 52217 31 355 22 032 28 038 28 035 32 019 52217 49765 31 355 29 024 30 031 29 027 29 025 49765 47538 26 353 29 012 27 021 26 024 30 031 47538 45493 21 350 25 001 24 013 25 023 35 023 45493 43608 19 346 26 354 25 007 30 022 34 024 43608 41863 19 333 26 343 27 355 33 016 36 025 41863 40240 21 311 24 319 27 343 32 004 40 014 40240 38731 25 293 25 293 26 328 28 348 42 360 38731 37341 27 292 24 280 26 314 28 336 40 356 37341 36031 28 296 22 281 22 306 28 333 33 011 36031 34722 30 296 23 286 19 301 24 339 34 030 34722 33378 32 293 24 288 17 305 21 008 38 031 33378 32003 36 290 25 288 17 317 29 035 44 026 32003 30585 39 288 29 282 18 325 39 043 47 025 30585 29115 38 290 37 280 20 320 48 045 46 028 29115 27592 36 294 46 279 25 307 48 043 44 033 27592 26019 36 299 43 281 31 296 39 036 43 034 26019 24396 34 308 32 285 35 285 33 023 40 037 24396 22726 30 317 27 289 32 284 30 006 32 040 22726 21002 28 322 25 292 27 291 23 350 26 023 21002 19220 25 326 22 292 22 299 17 329 29 008 19220 17415 22 329 17 301 20 306 16 327 28 006 17415 15680 19 335 13 317 17 313 16 342 20 009 15680 14103 18 351 10 328 14 322 16 352 14 009 14103 12700 17 007 8 340 10 327 13 355 12 007 12700 11450 16 015 8 359 6 337 10 359 10 010 11450 10333 11 016 9 015 5 015 9 013 9 016 10333 9334 6 014 10 021 7 056 8 024 9 024 9334 8443 4 030 8 029 8*075 6 033 7 029 8443 7650 6 055 6 047 8*078 3 061 4 023 7650 6943 12 066 7 057 8 078 4 080 1 027 6943 6302 17 067 9*061 8 079 7 078 1 100 6302 5731 21 067 9*060 8 079 10*073 3 075 5731 5249 21 063 7 056 7 081 12*070 7 067 5249 4876 14 054 7 055 6 083 11 069 11 063 4876 4618 7 036 6 057 6 085 9 070 11 048 4618 4462 4*353 5 056 5 085 7 068 9*038 4462 4372 4*306 4 055 4 089 4 064 5*027 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography