DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/28 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1327z - - 1555z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 57.7 - - 71.5 - - 77.3 - - 79.2 - - 76.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 3 - - 207 - - 316 - - 196 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2425 - - 4858 - - 6126 - - 4522 BL Depth Hcrit 557 - - 1946 - - 3950 - - 4701 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top 574 - - 3020 - - 5453 - - 6721 - - 5117 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 227 - - 3133 - - 1270 - - 1556 - - 2507 Hgt.Variab. W* 16 - - 326 - - 474 - - 440 - - 112 W* B/S 1 - - 9 - - 14 - - 11 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 090 - - 107 - - 080 - - 089 - - 104 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -2 - - 5 - - 0 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2260 - - -3720 - - -3251 - - -2499 - - -2802 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2835 - - 6740 - - 8705 - - 9221 - - 7920 sfcLCL ODpotential -9613 - - -9042 - - -8165 - - -7999 - - -9759 ODpotential blCL 10187 - - 12062 - - 13618 - - 14720 - - 14876 blCL maxRH 62 - - 73 - - 73 - - 84 - - 86 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 57.7 - - 71.5 - - 77.3 - - 79.2 - - 76.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.6 - - 44.1 - - 41.1 - - 40.7 - - 43.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.9 - - 70.2 - - 75.5 - - 78.0 - - 76.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.3 - - 42.9 - - 39.9 - - 39.4 - - 42.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 3 - - 207 - - 316 - - 196 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2425 - - 4858 - - 6126 - - 4522 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 35 - - 46 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98241 20 048 15 101 15 075 7 047 15 058 98241 90903 15 045 14 089 15 070 10 070 12 053 90903 85212 7 046 11 071 11 079 12 079 5 007 85212 80453 4 156 7 034 4 057 8 030 7 358 80453 76345 2 131 8 044 2 074 5 326 7 009 76345 72722 5 098 8 050 6 044 2 222 4 003 72722 69451 7 092 1 095 5 336 1 093 3 329 69451 66443 5 086 2 262 5 292 2 034 3 020 66443 63655 1 115 5 270 4 264 4 298 8 006 63655 60972 0 312 4 270 6 250 8 289 13 339 60972 58191 4 321 6 322 7 275 9 313 13 322 58191 55305 7 305 10 330 13 291 13 331 13 314 55305 52535 7 310 9 340 14 280 18 309 18 307 52535 50035 8 305 7 340 6 273 19 284 20 307 50035 47801 2 269 7 329 2 358 9 268 16 299 47801 45790 1 188 7 349 9 043 4 109 11 274 45790 43961 7 124 7 321 7 348 6 005 2 035 43961 42289 20 120 13 132 4 159 8 339 5 345 42289 40745 32 106 30 107 22 117 17 130 9 274 40745 39299 34 117 30 097 26 106 20 142 6 156 39299 37935 41 127 31 112 25 114 24 135 14 143 37935 36611 49 120 37 124 25 122 25 125 13 149 36611 35257 48 119 41 125 26 126 25 121 12 157 35257 33844 47 117 43 122 25 133 23 125 11 162 33844 32377 46 116 45 118 24 132 20 125 10 166 32377 30839 45 115 42 120 24 127 12 104 7 166 30839 29218 43 115 43 122 23 124 9 104 6 135 29218 27512 44 120 40 124 25 121 9 116 8 112 27512 25723 37 129 35 132 26 129 9 156 5 067 25723 23850 21 116 26 125 18 129 2 115 6 032 23850 21900 15 105 27 107 15 096 15 092 12 089 21900 19870 6 059 21 117 20 095 15 087 14 096 19870 17758 8 351 3 045 11 090 10 107 4 110 17758 15605 7 009 8 014 9 339 6 050 5 331 15605 13539 8 048 9 054 6 337 13 352 14 354 13539 11670 9 072 10 076 3 036 13 352 16 004 11670 10016 11 084 9 083 6 093 11 037 11 029 10016 8553 10 078 7 085 8 095 12 072 11 062 8553 7256 9 056 4 068 7 081 9*088 10 077 7256 6104 10 031 4 029 6*075 8*090 9*094 6104 5085 10 021 4 031 6*079 8 089 9*103 5085 4185 8 031 3 065 6 079 8 090 8 104 4185 3389 5 078 5*095 6 080 8 088 8 104 3389 2677 6 123 6*106 6 079 7 088 8 104 2677 2046 9 140 6 107 6 080 7 088 8 104 2046 1521 11 140 7 107 6 080 7 088 8 103 1521 1117 11 131 6 107 6 080 7 087 8 103 1117 839 11 107 6 107 6 079 7 087 7 103 839 671 9*099 6 107 6 079 6 086 6 102 671 574 4*090 5 106 5 080 6 087 5 101 574 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography