DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/16 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 84.2 - - 86.8 - - 88.8 - - 81.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 71 - - 74 - - 69 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1941 - - 4558 - - 4849 - - 1530 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1032 - - 3040 - - 3187 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2536 - - 5153 - - 5444 - - 2125 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3853 - - 2195 - - 2228 - - 2610 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 229 - - 313 - - 312 - - 92 W* B/S - - - 41 - - 47 - - 28 - - 4 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 215 - - 322 - - 308 - - 186 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - -6 - - -1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -478 - - 1189 - - 853 - - 565 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3014 - - 3964 - - 4591 - - 1560 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1913 - - 170 - - -827 - - -431 ODpotential blCL - - - 4449 - - 4983 - - 6271 - - 2556 blCL maxRH - - - 85 - - 100 - - 96 - - 93 maxRH CAPE - - - 1410 - - 1320 - - 1290 - - 2780 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 84.2 - - 86.8 - - 88.8 - - 81.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 72.6 - - 71.2 - - 70.4 - - 76.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 83.6 - - 86.3 - - 88.4 - - 82.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 71.4 - - 69.8 - - 69.0 - - 75.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 71 - - 74 - - 69 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1941 - - 4558 - - 4849 - - 1530 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 40 - - 100 - - 83 - - 71 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 15 - - 14 - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99477 49 098 36 093 33 096 36 086 99477 91973 42 088 36 092 32 092 28 087 91973 86207 33 077 36 090 28 094 20 087 86207 81407 25 087 26 085 23 085 21 090 81407 77257 22 091 16 100 16 073 22 066 77257 73598 22 069 16 092 16 099 15 063 73598 70299 19 058 16 070 17 088 13 074 70299 67276 14 066 14 063 16 070 13 051 67276 64484 15 054 12 074 11 075 8 032 64484 61788 16 027 13 068 12 080 7 072 61788 59002 12 008 14 039 13 047 12 056 59002 56156 9 008 14 046 10 045 9 042 56156 53460 11 019 19 035 18 035 14 043 53460 51040 12 024 11 031 19 030 18 035 51040 48877 6 100 10 114 8 056 15 039 48877 46911 19 123 17 108 16 132 10 122 46911 45099 25 110 18 101 16 126 16 136 45099 43411 30 110 18 122 16 134 16 141 43411 41830 30 101 20 126 17 137 17 141 41830 40342 17 079 17 104 15 135 15 135 40342 38934 13 121 12 117 11 155 7 137 38934 37569 21 140 12 143 11 171 5 180 37569 36174 25 144 15 168 12 190 7 189 36174 34720 27 150 19 182 11 204 11 197 34720 33209 28 152 14 188 10 206 12 197 33209 31630 22 150 11 195 10 204 11 191 31630 29969 15 146 11 197 7 189 10 182 29969 28225 15 137 9 189 7 171 10 174 28225 26398 21 131 13 166 10 172 10 173 26398 24490 26 124 18 158 14 173 11 181 24490 22504 24 128 16 156 13 178 11 199 22504 20436 15 138 12 161 14 182 9 209 20436 18278 11 157 8 168 13 177 9 212 18278 16074 11 173 4 175 8 168 8 203 16074 13952 8 184 3 186 3 115 7 165 13952 12024 2 086 4 166 2 168 6 162 12024 10317 3 051 5 178 7 222 2 084 10317 8806 3 057 3 177 4 238 1 028 8806 7463 1 053 1 013 2 339 2 339 7463 6269 1 276 2 000 3*326 3 345 6269 5214 1 282 2*350 3*319 1 338 5214 4286 2 299 2*341 2 317 2 196 4286 3468 1 303 2 334 2 312 4 197 3468 2736 1*284 1 327 2 308 5*194 2736 2088 1*238 1 317 2 301 5*191 2088 1548 1 216 1 309 2 298 5 187 1548 1133 1 210 1 300 2 294 5 185 1133 848 1 206 1 292 2 292 5 183 848 674 1 208 1 286 2 291 4 183 674 575 1 206 1 282 1 290 3 182 575 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography