DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/03 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 85.4 - - 94.7 - - 95.5 - - 89.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 27 - - 145 - - 51 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 540 - - 5533 - - 6731 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 559 - - 4124 - - 4283 - - 559 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1135 - - 6128 - - 7326 - - 577 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 888 - - 3803 - - 3115 - - 6729 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 108 - - 397 - - 320 - - 16 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 9 - - 12 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 213 - - 203 - - 190 - - 152 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2896 - - -636 - - 380 - - -3971 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4031 - - 6764 - - 6946 - - 4548 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5797 - - -2050 - - -806 - - -5832 ODpotential blCL - - - 6932 - - 8178 - - 8132 - - 6409 blCL maxRH - - - 97 - - 81 - - 79 - - 78 maxRH CAPE - - - 980 - - 990 - - 1110 - - 2010 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 85.4 - - 94.7 - - 95.5 - - 89.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 69.6 - - 66.9 - - 66.9 - - 71.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.4 - - 93.8 - - 95.2 - - 91.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 69.0 - - 65.6 - - 65.7 - - 70.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 27 - - 145 - - 51 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 540 - - 5533 - - 6731 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 89 - - 25 - - 18 - - 14 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 13 - - 13 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99061 14 107 8 145 6 136 6 078 99061 91611 9 077 13 140 5 152 8 111 91611 85849 9 079 11 138 6 142 6 063 85849 81065 10 100 4 108 11 123 6 047 81065 76950 8 066 8 106 11 113 6 093 76950 73314 7 033 10 077 9 100 3 110 73314 70037 4 357 8 020 7 072 3 150 70037 67051 3 305 10 323 9 353 5 075 67051 64300 2 104 4 286 7 291 7 324 64300 61657 4 014 5 232 8 275 12 290 61657 58931 8 275 11 255 12 272 14 273 58931 56126 12 276 15 258 20 259 20 272 56126 53466 18 290 19 272 25 250 28 273 53466 51084 21 286 21 273 27 247 32 264 51084 48946 24 279 23 271 26 244 31 253 48946 46987 27 281 27 267 27 252 30 255 46987 45171 31 281 31 267 31 267 32 265 45171 43477 33 278 34 271 35 275 33 271 43477 41890 33 277 32 272 32 280 30 268 41890 40394 31 277 28 273 29 280 25 263 40394 38978 28 272 26 273 28 274 22 256 38978 37602 25 265 26 267 26 270 22 260 37602 36200 21 257 25 254 27 267 24 271 36200 34742 19 254 23 244 25 261 24 264 34742 33230 21 247 22 243 23 259 22 259 33230 31649 19 244 19 248 21 261 18 257 31649 29985 16 256 14 246 17 255 16 249 29985 28243 11 249 16 244 20 258 17 254 28243 26421 13 236 19 241 22 256 17 270 26421 24520 13 235 16 247 18 260 16 276 24520 22538 12 257 15 246 15 251 15 269 22538 20475 12 251 16 247 17 254 15 267 20475 18330 11 239 15 243 16 253 13 274 18330 16142 13 237 15 241 13 246 9 284 16142 14030 17 223 16 236 13 245 10 287 14030 12112 17 202 18 232 15 250 12 269 12112 10413 11 168 20 208 15 232 13 248 10413 8902 9 162 18 192 15 229 13 246 8902 7555 8 185 14 193 13*211 12 243 7555 6355 9 202 12*205 13*204 10 234 6355 5289 10 223 11*206 13 198 10 217 5289 4349 14 241 10 205 13 194 10 200 4349 3517 16 243 10 205 13 190 11 188 3517 2773 16 238 10 203 12 187 12 180 2773 2114 15 234 9 203 12 184 13 174 2114 1564 14*229 9 201 12 183 13 170 1564 1143 10*219 8 200 12 182 13 166 1143 852 7 211 8 200 11 181 11 162 852 676 6 210 7 200 10 181 9*158 676 576 5 209 7 199 9 180 5*152 576 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography