DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 05/21 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0657z - - 0959z - - 1331z - - 1559z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 67.6 - - 68.7 - - 69.4 - - 73.6 - - 73.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 26 - - 38 - - -6 - - 9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 230 - - 533 - - 994 - - 533 BL Depth Hcrit 544 - - 544 - - 544 - - 544 - - 544 Hcrit BL Top 562 - - 825 - - 1128 - - 1589 - - 1128 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 776 - - 1478 - - 1061 - - 1857 - - 1415 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 77 - - 115 - - 74 - - 80 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 5 - - 9 - - 15 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 186 - - 183 - - 166 - - 181 - - 178 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 8 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 0 - - -1 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -345 - - -147 - - 248 - - 298 - - -30 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 907 - - 972 - - 880 - - 1291 - - 1158 sfcLCL ODpotential -3465 - - -1470 - - -1179 - - -614 - - -1775 ODpotential blCL 4027 - - 2295 - - 2307 - - 2203 - - 2903 blCL maxRH 90 - - 99 - - 100 - - 100 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 100 - - 180 - - 340 - - 1490 - - 1230 CAPE Temp@2m 67.6 - - 68.7 - - 69.4 - - 73.6 - - 73.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 65.3 - - 66.1 - - 67.1 - - 69.4 - - 69.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 67.7 - - 68.7 - - 69.2 - - 73.6 - - 73.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 65.1 - - 65.8 - - 66.8 - - 69.0 - - 69.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 26 - - 38 - - -6 - - 9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 230 - - 533 - - 994 - - 533 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 62 - - 96 - - 101 - - 100 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 14 - - 14 - - 15 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98027 2 076 3 232 6 212 9 244 10 284 98027 90623 11 282 9 251 8 248 11 273 7 242 90623 84928 6 288 11 258 7 242 11 253 8 270 84928 80212 1 027 10 249 5 281 5 246 6 258 80212 76167 4 358 5 220 5 246 6 287 6 342 76167 72611 6 041 3 124 4 207 6 237 10 351 72611 69400 7 019 2 123 7 248 5 270 7 347 69400 66455 6 334 2 277 13 206 11 276 10 322 66455 63731 11 276 6 282 16 207 19 233 16 278 63731 61096 22 251 13 276 12 206 22 210 19 239 61096 58347 28 244 22 250 15 253 14 231 17 231 58347 55490 33 230 33 231 32 251 32 251 28 261 55490 52769 33 214 38 220 34 232 33 243 35 260 52769 50331 25 195 32 221 31 237 36 244 40 256 50331 48154 22 252 35 242 39 239 42 253 41 252 48154 46184 45 248 44 244 46 249 46 254 44 250 46184 44380 48 246 47 246 50 251 49 249 47 249 44380 42715 49 245 54 245 49 249 51 244 45 246 42715 41167 51 239 60 235 46 230 49 240 42 240 41167 39716 52 236 62 226 55 220 48 236 44 231 39716 38347 51 235 59 224 59 221 49 229 47 225 38347 37015 49 235 55 220 57 221 53 226 50 224 37015 35652 49 234 51 214 54 222 58 228 55 225 35652 34228 48 231 47 214 50 225 60 230 57 228 34228 32748 45 221 45 212 46 226 56 235 54 235 32748 31198 46 212 43 208 42 221 47 240 47 246 31198 29566 47 216 42 207 41 211 39 243 41 251 29566 27851 47 222 41 211 40 213 33 244 35 250 27851 26051 43 227 40 220 37 220 28 244 30 248 26051 24170 37 232 38 226 33 230 26 246 27 251 24170 22211 33 239 35 228 26 239 25 248 25 257 22211 20170 31 242 28 235 23 245 23 246 22 259 20170 18043 26 233 26 242 24 235 21 249 18 261 18043 15878 24 220 27 235 26 230 19 263 14 271 15878 13793 25 209 24 221 27 228 17 275 10 265 13793 11897 27 199 23 203 27 228 14 269 8 258 11897 10209 29 192 26 188 26 225 15 264 12 266 10209 8707 28 186 33 182 25 220 18 263 15 269 8707 7372 24 187 27 180 21 214 19 266 15 266 7372 6189 20 190 15 176 18 212 17 265 15 256 6189 5144 20 191 9 179 17 226 14 250 13 250 5144 4223 20 190 8 178 16 246 13 236 11 245 4223 3411 22 191 11 187 15 251 13 216 10 234 3411 2686 23 194 15 196 14 245 17 191 9 215 2686 2046 25 197 14 200 11 223 18*185 10 196 2046 1515 24 198 12 197 10*183 18*183 12*187 1515 1107 22 196 9*191 11*168 16 181 11*183 1107 828 15 191 6*183 9 166 15 180 9 176 828 658 14*191 5 182 8 166 13 180 8 176 658 561 6*186 3 184 6 165 10 180 6 175 561 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography