DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/16 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 1008z - - 1333z - - 1600z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.3 - - 48.5 - - 57.9 - - 61.8 - - 56.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 103 - - 133 - - 36 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 297 - - 1876 - - 3670 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 542 - - 542 - - 1385 - - 1319 - - 543 Hcrit BL Top 559 - - 892 - - 2471 - - 4265 - - 561 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 195 - - 490 - - 2836 - - 1616 - - 2898 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 128 - - 264 - - 227 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 10 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 304 - - 311 - - 297 - - 286 - - 176 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - -2 - - -10 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -378 - - -400 - - -1279 - - -590 - - -2910 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 937 - - 1292 - - 3750 - - 4855 - - 3471 sfcLCL ODpotential -4777 - - -2989 - - -2848 - - -9073 - - -12218 ODpotential blCL 5336 - - 3881 - - 5319 - - 13338 - - 12779 blCL maxRH 85 - - 92 - - 69 - - 64 - - 44 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.3 - - 48.5 - - 57.9 - - 61.8 - - 56.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.7 - - 45.3 - - 43.9 - - 42.8 - - 43.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.9 - - 47.9 - - 57.4 - - 61.5 - - 58.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.6 - - 44.6 - - 42.5 - - 40.4 - - 40.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 103 - - 133 - - 36 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 297 - - 1876 - - 3670 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 41 - - 70 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97706 9 282 13 237 15 247 17 252 21 249 97706 90391 7 258 12 253 11 237 11 252 12 256 90391 84744 6 273 12 254 9 256 12 259 9 275 84744 80026 6 274 10 256 6 265 10 251 11 272 80026 75937 4 269 9 255 8 269 10 265 12 275 75937 72310 7 276 8 243 9 249 15 267 15 281 72310 69031 17 287 11 276 6 247 12 247 15 268 69031 66023 24 273 20 280 14 290 9 255 11 249 66023 63232 23 265 27 264 28 279 23 288 20 299 63232 60537 21 245 28 252 31 261 31 270 28 286 60537 57738 25 283 27 263 28 256 28 260 30 274 57738 54842 41 279 35 274 32 265 30 267 32 265 54842 52081 50 268 42 274 38 271 37 276 35 269 52081 49601 56 263 46 271 44 270 43 276 37 270 49601 47381 61 260 49 267 47 268 44 273 37 275 47381 45370 63 257 51 266 48 268 42 277 38 289 45370 43535 64 260 52 269 47 268 42 285 41 296 43535 41848 66 266 51 271 45 271 41 283 42 293 41848 40285 65 267 50 275 43 274 36 277 38 285 40285 38821 62 268 51 277 41 276 30 279 31 291 38821 37448 64 271 49 277 41 274 32 308 28 311 37448 36130 68 272 48 278 36 275 39 323 30 320 36130 34796 70 272 45 283 40 309 39 331 29 317 34796 33414 69 272 46 295 43 313 34 344 24 321 33414 31981 68 273 49 302 38 324 34 001 21 337 31981 30481 67 278 49 303 39 342 39 008 22 342 30481 28900 67 281 44 308 42 351 42 007 24 335 28900 27233 62 284 42 319 42 350 42 006 26 329 27233 25482 57 290 43 330 41 343 40 006 27 328 25482 23649 54 298 44 335 41 339 37 002 27 329 23649 21733 54 304 46 336 42 338 35 353 28 331 21733 19730 53 309 46 336 42 332 32 341 28 333 19730 17636 52 312 44 335 38 327 34 326 28 324 17636 15494 51 314 42 334 33 326 33 316 31 317 15494 13426 50 318 41 334 30 329 30 315 29 319 13426 11548 46 323 38 335 30 335 27 321 25 321 11548 9885 41 330 35 339 28 340 24 329 22 325 9885 8411 35 334 33 343 27 347 21 336 18 329 8411 7109 30 341 29 349 25 346 18 337 15 328 7109 5963 27 354 27 357 21 338 16 322 13 324 5963 4957 26 004 24 009 17 337 13*309 10 308 4957 4076 24 010 21 017 11 348 11*303 8 299 4076 3299 21 014 17 020 6 007 7 288 7 291 3299 2604 15 012 14 015 5*003 6 283 6 267 2604 1990 10 000 11 356 5*300 6 281 5 232 1990 1479 9 336 12 326 5 298 6 280 6 210 1479 1087 11 314 10*315 5 295 5 279 6 196 1087 817 12 304 8*312 5 295 5 280 6 188 817 653 11*305 7 312 5 296 5 280 5*181 653 560 4*304 7 311 4 295 5 278 5*176 560 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography