DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/15 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 66.9 - - 75.5 - - 76.5 - - 65.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 64 - - 166 - - 62 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 829 - - 2344 - - 3831 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 557 - - 1777 - - 2036 - - 557 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1424 - - 2939 - - 4426 - - 574 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 840 - - 903 - - 1130 - - 336 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 153 - - 296 - - 252 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 17 - - 19 - - 21 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 231 - - 255 - - 285 - - 324 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -786 - - -1582 - - -633 - - -5081 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2210 - - 4521 - - 5059 - - 5655 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6428 - - -5515 - - -4445 - - -11582 ODpotential blCL - - - 7852 - - 8454 - - 8871 - - 12156 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 91 - - 76 - - 48 maxRH CAPE - - - 70 - - 20 - - 20 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 66.9 - - 75.5 - - 76.5 - - 65.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 58.9 - - 57.4 - - 56.0 - - 42.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 66.7 - - 74.6 - - 76.3 - - 67.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 58.9 - - 57.3 - - 55.8 - - 42.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 64 - - 166 - - 62 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 829 - - 2344 - - 3831 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 55 - - 65 - - 6 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 11 - - 10 - - 10 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95761 68 260 65 265 62 258 74 257 95761 88808 42 273 46 267 43 260 45 271 88808 83453 33 272 34 265 31 272 34 282 83453 78983 17 286 24 271 26 283 23 290 78983 75100 16 307 16 280 23 282 24 301 75100 71662 22 301 14 300 22 290 21 296 71662 68545 22 305 17 316 20 289 17 281 68545 65662 22 300 19 307 22 304 22 300 65662 62981 29 313 26 296 30 295 28 299 62981 60390 32 306 29 292 29 301 29 295 60390 57670 29 300 32 298 30 290 39 301 57670 54823 40 303 39 299 49 305 59 299 54823 52110 63 302 62 298 67 291 68 294 52110 49675 77 293 70 291 72 289 71 290 49675 47491 77 289 72 292 74 283 76 286 47491 45520 78 296 66 294 69 285 72 287 45520 43731 91 298 74 300 72 300 75 295 43731 42082 98 291 80 298 91 302 89 300 42082 40547 96 283 76 295 94 296 99 298 40547 39102 93 284 73 299 88 294 97 294 39102 37735 87 287 74 301 81 294 95 297 37735 36404 84 289 79 300 81 296 94 299 36404 35046 92 289 86 302 81 296 88 298 35046 33632 96 288 81 299 78 295 83 295 33632 32161 94 288 70 296 69 294 79 292 32161 30621 88 288 68 299 63 291 77 291 30621 28999 85 287 68 300 63 290 78 290 28999 27298 84 286 65 295 63 288 81 288 27298 25517 84 285 65 289 63 288 81 287 25517 23660 82 281 73 286 63 287 76 288 23660 21732 78 277 71 284 65 284 69 288 21732 19724 68 277 68 280 64 280 66 286 19724 17631 54 286 61 281 59 279 61 283 17631 15502 43 284 47 280 53 280 61 284 15502 13460 32 276 37 276 47 276 60 287 13460 11604 33 283 34 270 44 273 47 277 11604 9955 30 287 37 266 42 274 36 273 9955 8494 29 290 37 265 39 274 26 295 8494 7201 28 283 35 263 33 276 30 323 7201 6054 28 271 33 269 28 280 30 322 6054 5039 29 269 30 277 23*282 25 323 5039 4146 30 277 29 277 22*283 23 326 4146 3359 33 275 26*270 22 284 25 330 3359 2654 33 264 20*257 22 285 26 333 2654 2030 28 252 20 255 21 285 27 334 2030 1510 23*241 19 255 21 285 27 335 1510 1110 19*233 18 254 20 286 25 334 1110 835 17 231 18 254 19 286 19 329 835 669 16 230 16 254 18 286 16*328 669 573 13 229 14 253 14 286 7*324 573 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography