DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 05/19 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0705z - - 1000z - - 1334z - - 1600z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 63.9 - - 75.5 - - 82.1 - - 78.2 - - 71.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 107 - - 218 - - 64 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1197 - - 2878 - - 1113 - - 224 BL Depth Hcrit 557 - - 558 - - 2309 - - 558 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top 575 - - 1792 - - 3473 - - 1708 - - 819 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 172 - - 1638 - - 2156 - - 2400 - - 3645 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 216 - - 355 - - 178 - - 43 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 10 - - 13 - - 15 - - 15 BL Wind Direction 184 - - 170 - - 181 - - 176 - - 189 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 2 - - -3 - - -2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -170 - - -748 - - -135 - - -389 - - -18 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 745 - - 2540 - - 3609 - - 2097 - - 837 sfcLCL ODpotential -6454 - - -4613 - - -1490 - - -2392 - - -934 ODpotential blCL 7029 - - 6405 - - 4963 - - 4100 - - 1753 blCL maxRH 87 - - 75 - - 88 - - 98 - - 90 maxRH CAPE 990 - - 1300 - - 2680 - - 2900 - - 1530 CAPE Temp@2m 63.9 - - 75.5 - - 82.1 - - 78.2 - - 71.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.1 - - 65.8 - - 67.6 - - 70.2 - - 68.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.2 - - 74.9 - - 80.7 - - 77.9 - - 72.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 62.0 - - 64.8 - - 66.9 - - 69.6 - - 68.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 107 - - 218 - - 64 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1197 - - 2878 - - 1113 - - 224 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 47 - - 1 - - 51 - - 93 - - 60 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 13 - - 14 - - 16 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98043 5 115 13 102 12 101 8 197 9 065 98043 90517 4 089 11 103 9 133 11 141 7 158 90517 84748 2 120 7 104 9 171 7 174 3 198 84748 79978 7 066 5 112 7 154 6 194 2 283 79978 75883 5 031 3 165 3 146 7 210 1 295 75883 72268 8 331 4 169 7 244 6 250 6 305 72268 68992 12 310 3 282 10 259 7 273 12 271 68992 65976 9 281 5 263 12 266 13 279 14 259 65976 63186 13 300 9 303 10 275 15 263 16 252 63186 60502 29 286 22 298 14 295 13 267 12 239 60502 57708 35 266 32 272 28 282 25 277 13 273 57708 54812 32 259 36 252 37 259 36 273 31 275 54812 52073 35 273 35 258 34 256 39 259 44 261 52073 49635 42 280 37 276 35 265 38 258 43 255 49635 47474 43 276 45 282 39 264 41 259 43 253 47474 45533 41 269 53 273 44 263 40 260 39 251 45533 43763 35 283 54 287 55 275 40 270 32 254 43763 42131 52 303 65 297 56 274 41 251 31 267 42131 40606 64 304 69 285 52 277 41 245 29 249 40606 39172 63 300 68 285 47 280 40 246 23 239 39172 37814 46 293 64 288 48 282 40 244 20 236 37814 36491 34 286 64 290 49 278 43 236 19 234 36491 35137 31 280 53 294 47 263 45 232 20 237 35137 33723 29 275 33 281 48 253 46 234 22 243 33723 32254 28 273 26 263 49 251 46 238 24 245 32254 30713 28 275 25 266 49 248 48 238 25 243 30713 29090 28 275 30 268 49 247 50 241 25 240 29090 27385 31 274 40 268 48 249 39 245 22 241 27385 25600 34 273 38 265 48 250 31 247 17 249 25600 23740 33 274 32 261 47 246 26 249 14 278 23740 21808 32 277 31 261 37 238 24 246 15 302 21808 19797 31 278 35 260 22 232 26 238 16 292 19797 17703 31 276 39 254 15 240 30 242 14 300 17703 15571 31 271 39 252 19 220 35 241 17 290 15571 13522 32 266 35 255 28 218 40 238 18 279 13522 11665 29 269 28 261 38 226 41 234 19 268 11665 10022 28 270 20 264 42 231 37 230 26 256 10022 8562 23 269 15 258 40 238 32 225 31 248 8562 7263 21 274 12 248 31 244 28 220 32 237 7263 6108 18 281 10 232 16 232 24 215 35 227 6108 5086 16 281 10 217 16 205 21 213 38 217 5086 4186 14 274 11 205 17*200 18 210 39 209 4186 3391 12 263 12 201 15*191 17 203 36 204 3391 2679 10 250 14 193 14 182 18 188 33 201 2679 2050 8 233 14*181 13 180 18*182 31 200 2050 1523 8 222 12*174 13 179 17*179 28 197 1523 1119 8 197 10 170 12 178 15 176 24 193 1119 840 9 189 10 169 12 177 14 176 21*191 840 671 9*190 9 169 11 177 13 175 18*190 671 574 3*184 8 169 10 176 11 175 13 189 574 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography