DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/29 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 69.9 - - 79.5 - - 81.0 - - 70.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 86 - - 225 - - 93 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 615 - - 3636 - - 5172 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 557 - - 2851 - - 3412 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1210 - - 4231 - - 5767 - - 575 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 554 - - 2402 - - 1814 - - 3425 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 152 - - 378 - - 318 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 6 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 14 - - 11 - - 11 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 231 - - 267 - - 271 - - 223 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - -3 - - -4 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4015 - - -1645 - - -1 - - -1251 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5225 - - 5876 - - 5769 - - 1826 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8265 - - -2288 - - -283 - - -3389 ODpotential blCL - - - 9475 - - 6519 - - 6050 - - 3964 blCL maxRH - - - 84 - - 88 - - 90 - - 96 maxRH CAPE - - - 50 - - 320 - - 630 - - 960 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 69.9 - - 79.5 - - 81.0 - - 70.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 49.4 - - 55.8 - - 57.8 - - 64.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 69.3 - - 78.1 - - 80.4 - - 73.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 49.3 - - 55.7 - - 57.7 - - 63.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 86 - - 225 - - 93 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 615 - - 3636 - - 5172 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 36 - - 53 - - 60 - - 82 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 10 - - 10 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96877 52 250 67 247 68 260 64 269 96877 89687 34 245 45 252 46 259 45 270 89687 84167 24 250 33 250 35 257 33 267 84167 79584 19 237 24 243 31 248 28 260 79584 75617 14 255 16 249 26 235 29 258 75617 72109 16 279 14 269 18 232 26 261 72109 68935 22 263 20 270 17 258 18 265 68935 66000 25 253 26 262 23 273 19 273 66000 63274 29 259 29 253 32 257 28 268 63274 60650 35 259 30 251 37 251 36 264 60650 57921 31 261 34 260 33 252 37 238 57921 55071 44 266 45 271 38 269 39 270 55071 52360 63 261 65 264 79 271 75 269 52360 49945 76 250 98 252 107 259 97 253 49945 47759 66 252 77 252 91 253 84 256 47759 45754 66 269 75 268 75 268 75 267 45754 43931 80 276 90 272 88 273 87 271 43931 42271 88 275 91 269 102 270 114 267 42271 40735 86 274 72 267 93 270 119 266 40735 39290 76 274 62 267 79 269 95 268 39290 37925 66 274 63 268 70 269 78 272 37925 36603 58 275 63 269 68 269 72 275 36603 35256 51 273 58 266 66 269 67 276 35256 33850 46 272 51 262 64 268 64 275 33850 32390 43 270 49 264 61 268 62 277 32390 30860 38 269 49 266 56 271 56 280 30860 29248 34 274 47 267 48 273 49 280 29248 27555 31 278 42 271 41 279 41 278 27555 25782 27 278 35 270 37 283 35 281 25782 23934 25 270 28 273 33 280 29 289 23934 22009 23 274 24 280 30 277 25 299 22009 19999 22 267 24 286 28 278 23 295 19999 17898 24 264 25 282 26 281 25 299 17898 15751 26 263 26 274 26 273 23 294 15751 13680 26 254 28 273 25 267 21 289 13680 11802 26 238 29 259 24 271 19 287 11802 10136 20 230 25 250 24 270 20 280 10136 8655 17 235 21 252 22 275 18 278 8655 7337 13 238 17 254 18 281 13 275 7337 6168 13 254 12 258 13*278 11 263 6168 5134 14 256 12*269 12*273 9 258 5134 4222 14 261 12*271 11 272 7 261 4222 3417 15 260 12 269 11 271 7 266 3417 2696 18 255 12 267 11 271 7 270 2696 2059 21 243 11 266 11 270 7 273 2059 1528 20*238 11 265 11 269 6 272 1528 1121 17*233 10 264 10 269 5 271 1121 841 14 231 10 264 10 269 4 266 841 671 13 230 9 264 9 268 3*254 671 574 11 230 8 263 8 268 2*223 574 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography