DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/16 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 1007z - - 1332z - - 1559z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.0 - - 56.6 - - 59.5 - - 58.5 - - 50.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -16 - - 158 - - 197 - - 24 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3089 - - 4321 - - 4480 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 1257 - - 3163 - - 4185 - - 1257 - - 1257 Hcrit BL Top 1274 - - 4526 - - 5758 - - 5917 - - 1274 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2516 - - 757 - - 883 - - 1429 - - 742 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 327 - - 395 - - 216 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 17 - - 21 - - 22 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 347 - - 341 - - 345 - - 345 - - 335 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 9 - - 14 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 5 - - 12 - - 13 - - 14 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1407 - - 324 - - 698 - - 461 - - -2287 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2681 - - 4202 - - 5060 - - 5456 - - 3561 sfcLCL ODpotential -10415 - - -8308 - - -6402 - - -2765 - - -4197 ODpotential blCL 11689 - - 12834 - - 12160 - - 8682 - - 5471 blCL maxRH 78 - - 86 - - 88 - - 78 - - 60 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.0 - - 56.6 - - 59.5 - - 58.5 - - 50.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.8 - - 42.7 - - 41.9 - - 39.2 - - 39.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.2 - - 55.6 - - 58.3 - - 58.3 - - 51.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 45.4 - - 41.5 - - 40.4 - - 38.0 - - 38.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -16 - - 158 - - 197 - - 24 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3089 - - 4321 - - 4480 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 13 - - 45 - - 50 - - 13 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97806 13 266 11 244 17 279 10 246 13 267 97806 90620 11 271 7 259 8 268 12 272 10 273 90620 85016 8 266 8 246 5 212 14 275 11 281 85016 80338 7 316 6 229 6 235 10 271 12 308 80338 76292 7 315 6 232 6 255 8 258 14 299 76292 72716 8 270 10 248 8 276 6 276 13 294 72716 69481 11 248 13 243 15 264 9 262 15 292 69481 66501 13 240 15 243 19 256 16 235 19 264 66501 63738 20 238 21 243 23 246 21 243 24 238 63738 61072 28 233 28 243 30 239 31 250 30 232 61072 58310 34 233 37 243 39 229 39 241 36 236 58310 55455 41 233 43 235 43 230 46 231 44 236 55455 52731 49 229 47 230 53 237 54 228 53 233 52731 50277 54 226 55 231 63 236 61 229 62 234 50277 48074 60 224 63 228 69 229 68 231 69 236 48074 46073 64 221 66 221 73 225 72 232 72 237 46073 44236 65 219 66 218 74 225 76 235 72 238 44236 42538 66 220 68 223 76 227 80 237 74 239 42538 40956 71 225 76 232 81 233 87 237 78 239 40956 39474 79 230 86 236 88 236 93 236 81 239 39474 38079 86 232 91 235 94 236 97 234 84 238 38079 36731 88 232 91 232 96 233 98 231 85 237 36731 35363 84 231 88 229 95 231 96 229 86 236 35363 33944 76 229 86 228 92 228 94 227 87 236 33944 32477 71 230 84 228 90 226 93 227 88 236 32477 30942 70 230 83 227 89 222 91 227 90 235 30942 29328 69 228 82 227 89 221 89 229 90 234 29328 27630 70 226 80 227 88 221 87 231 89 234 27630 25850 70 227 77 226 86 223 85 233 86 237 25850 23991 70 233 71 225 83 227 83 234 78 240 23991 22063 72 237 65 226 78 231 77 237 65 245 22063 20064 67 238 60 226 71 234 70 240 54 254 20064 17987 54 237 57 227 64 235 64 241 47 258 17987 15878 43 237 53 232 54 237 57 241 36 266 15878 13860 36 245 45 242 44 242 49 244 26 292 13860 12036 31 251 39 251 37 249 39 253 24 314 12036 10418 27 256 34 258 29 256 28 269 24 324 10418 8986 25 259 27 265 20 269 21 297 23 331 8986 7719 23 259 20 277 15 304 25 331 24 342 7719 6600 20 265 17 305 21*339 27*343 27 348 6600 5613 17 290 20 327 23*344 26*344 28 351 5613 4745 19 317 21*336 23 344 24 344 27 351 4745 3979 24 327 20*339 22 345 23 345 25 350 3979 3293 25 331 19 340 22 345 22 345 23 349 3293 2687 23 335 18 342 21 345 21 345 22 349 2687 2182 19 340 17 342 20 346 20 345 20 349 2182 1793 17 345 16 343 19 345 19 345 18 349 1793 1527 14 348 15 342 18 345 18 345 14 347 1527 1366 12*349 14 343 17 345 16 344 12*344 1366 1273 6*347 12 342 14 344 12 344 5*335 1273 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography