DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/15 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.1 - - 59.3 - - 65.8 - - 59.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 191 - - 217 - - 75 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1107 - - 1983 - - 3495 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1805 - - 2483 - - 2920 - - 1277 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2544 - - 3420 - - 4932 - - 1294 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 701 - - 2187 - - 3380 - - 1357 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 243 - - 308 - - 265 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 14 - - 18 - - 22 - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - 136 - - 153 - - 156 - - 112 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 13 - - 15 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -8 - - -13 - - -12 - - -7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3379 - - -1125 - - -218 - - -1476 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5924 - - 4545 - - 5150 - - 2770 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9464 - - -2051 - - -945 - - -3609 ODpotential blCL - - - 12008 - - 5471 - - 5877 - - 4903 blCL maxRH - - - 71 - - 100 - - 83 - - 99 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - 50 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.1 - - 59.3 - - 65.8 - - 59.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 33.0 - - 44.0 - - 47.8 - - 51.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 52.9 - - 58.2 - - 65.3 - - 60.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 32.6 - - 43.7 - - 47.3 - - 51.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 191 - - 217 - - 75 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1107 - - 1983 - - 3495 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 101 - - 31 - - 98 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96586 31 252 24 258 35 252 33 271 96586 89395 13 240 20 266 21 264 26 271 89395 83816 15 276 18 260 20 272 20 290 83816 79166 14 280 16 278 17 280 17 300 79166 75160 8 203 16 283 14 278 8 260 75160 71607 5 287 15 278 15 275 2 244 71607 68381 18 286 15 275 17 274 10 294 68381 65441 25 281 14 267 16 273 13 288 65441 62737 29 278 17 286 14 279 12 278 62737 60102 28 283 25 288 16 259 13 226 60102 57332 31 270 29 260 24 233 30 216 57332 54460 35 260 39 249 36 244 37 243 54460 51736 41 253 45 249 44 249 47 247 51736 49291 48 255 51 256 48 260 55 249 49291 47102 53 254 55 254 58 256 59 248 47102 45116 53 258 57 250 65 249 60 244 45116 43301 57 260 59 248 66 241 61 241 43301 41639 61 257 58 247 61 238 60 239 41639 40107 55 248 58 246 57 240 58 237 40107 38679 47 239 60 244 57 243 56 232 38679 37336 44 236 60 247 57 243 56 227 37336 36034 41 224 60 250 58 240 57 231 36034 34707 49 231 60 247 59 237 56 233 34707 33326 54 233 59 243 58 237 56 233 33326 31893 53 230 55 241 55 237 55 232 31893 30395 49 233 50 241 49 235 53 232 30395 28820 45 235 47 239 44 233 50 233 28820 27170 43 238 48 233 47 233 50 229 27170 25447 43 239 48 229 51 227 55 219 25447 23659 43 236 47 229 52 225 54 217 23659 21809 40 235 44 231 50 227 49 221 21809 19886 36 234 42 227 47 226 48 225 19886 17880 33 224 40 219 48 219 48 225 17880 15831 34 211 40 211 43 208 47 219 15831 13859 33 205 40 211 38 211 47 217 13859 12068 35 209 39 212 45 211 51 212 12068 10473 36 204 38 206 45 199 52 209 10473 9053 33 197 37 195 37 186 49 203 9053 7791 30 189 37 185 34 180 43 186 7791 6672 30 183 36 177 34 179 40 171 6672 5682 31 178 35 174 30*173 38 164 5682 4808 30 171 34 173 26*166 37 161 4808 4035 29 164 31*170 24 158 35 158 4035 3340 27 160 24*162 23 156 33 151 3340 2726 21*152 20 155 22 154 29 137 2726 2213 15*138 18 151 21 153 26 125 2213 1821 15 136 17 149 20 153 22 118 1821 1551 14 135 16 148 19 152 18 115 1551 1387 12 135 15 148 17 152 15*113 1387 1293 10 135 12 149 13 153 9*112 1293 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography