DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/12 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0949z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 55.5 - - 56.7 - - 54.2 - - 45.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 56 - - 1 - - -26 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1237 - - 2168 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1276 - - 1276 - - 1276 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2674 - - 3605 - - 1293 - - 1293 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1348 - - 2441 - - 5135 - - 2847 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 173 - - 110 - - 18 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 15 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 240 - - 269 - - 290 - - 269 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 14 - - 5 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -958 - - 542 - - -1807 - - -996 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3632 - - 3063 - - 3101 - - 2289 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3339 - - -807 - - -2557 - - -2716 ODpotential blCL - - - 6013 - - 4412 - - 3850 - - 4009 blCL maxRH - - - 84 - - 100 - - 98 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 160 - - 50 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 55.5 - - 56.7 - - 54.2 - - 45.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 43.8 - - 47.3 - - 44.7 - - 39.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 55.2 - - 56.8 - - 55.1 - - 47.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 43.1 - - 46.2 - - 43.9 - - 38.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 56 - - 1 - - -26 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1237 - - 2168 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 35 - - 102 - - 92 - - 36 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96275 57 247 71 241 81 248 74 253 96275 89013 46 255 43 249 48 256 47 253 89013 83483 35 253 28 252 26 253 33 247 83483 78883 24 265 26 256 25 259 26 249 78883 74910 17 267 22 242 22 264 18 247 74910 71387 18 271 17 254 18 256 17 262 71387 68176 26 276 21 271 20 263 20 261 68176 65204 23 260 16 277 21 262 23 264 65204 62434 26 268 21 268 25 252 28 265 62434 59735 34 259 31 246 28 248 31 269 59735 56899 38 254 35 252 38 259 38 258 56899 53947 47 258 49 258 50 254 47 246 53947 51123 55 250 55 248 54 244 49 245 51123 48576 55 239 52 242 52 246 57 248 48576 46297 49 238 53 246 54 248 65 245 46297 44239 52 244 62 245 56 245 67 241 44239 42360 61 242 68 237 58 242 64 240 42360 40631 65 237 67 231 58 239 62 240 40631 39025 64 239 60 231 59 240 60 238 39025 37526 64 244 59 235 60 240 55 237 37526 36120 66 244 61 238 59 241 52 237 36120 34771 69 241 64 240 57 246 49 237 34771 33417 69 239 63 243 58 251 46 241 33417 32032 65 242 58 244 55 250 46 251 32032 30627 66 245 51 251 45 250 50 250 30627 29189 70 243 49 256 37 248 46 247 29189 27696 64 241 47 257 35 249 44 248 27696 26139 53 241 43 256 37 243 34 239 26139 24512 48 239 41 256 36 239 30 237 24512 22815 44 241 39 257 32 241 27 233 22815 21052 41 243 36 258 27 248 19 238 21052 19217 38 244 34 255 26 264 19 247 19217 17297 37 245 32 250 26 271 18 259 17297 15332 36 245 25 242 25 273 20 271 15332 13430 36 246 23 247 23 271 21 282 13430 11694 34 245 25 256 18 262 19 291 11694 10151 31 244 25 263 17 269 17 299 10151 8782 26 246 27 268 20 293 19 306 8782 7566 23 250 27 271 23 299 23 310 7566 6485 22 251 25 272 20 297 25 315 6485 5527 22 253 21 273 20 294 28 315 5527 4684 23 257 19 273 19 293 31 310 4684 3938 23 258 19*272 19 293 33 304 3938 3271 21 257 18*270 19 292 31 300 3271 2680 18*252 17 269 19 292 26 296 2680 2185 14*243 16 269 18 292 22 292 2185 1805 12 240 15 268 17 292 18 288 1805 1542 11 238 13 267 15 291 13 283 1542 1383 10 238 11 267 13*291 10*279 1383 1292 7 236 8 266 9*290 4*269 1292 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography