DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/13 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 43.2 - - 45.2 - - 44.9 - - 40.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 127 - - 17 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2708 - - 3985 - - 3636 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1275 - - 3670 - - 1275 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4145 - - 5422 - - 5073 - - 1292 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2330 - - 1439 - - 2964 - - 5181 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 191 - - 328 - - 170 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 16 - - 14 - - 15 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 339 - - 341 - - 331 - - 331 Direction Wind Shear - - - 10 - - 6 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 12 - - 6 - - 8 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 830 - - 887 - - 291 - - -2218 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3316 - - 4536 - - 4782 - - 3510 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 387 - - 377 - - -515 - - -2823 ODpotential blCL - - - 3758 - - 5045 - - 5588 - - 4115 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 94 - - 100 - - 94 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 43.2 - - 45.2 - - 44.9 - - 40.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 33.0 - - 29.7 - - 28.4 - - 29.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 43.0 - - 44.5 - - 45.0 - - 41.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 32.6 - - 29.0 - - 27.8 - - 29.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 36 - - 127 - - 17 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2708 - - 3985 - - 3636 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 76 - - 100 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96338 61 239 72 249 70 251 68 256 96338 89078 41 250 41 247 43 246 44 250 89078 83544 29 247 33 256 24 249 24 250 83544 78932 26 246 28 250 29 262 25 276 78932 74963 19 258 25 223 28 249 26 258 74963 71461 9 305 12 216 23 213 20 230 71461 68259 27 285 17 279 17 243 19 240 68259 65282 26 253 23 263 23 240 26 248 65282 62515 24 261 22 276 19 238 27 244 62515 59827 32 266 28 276 22 258 22 249 59827 56996 35 265 34 266 29 267 27 261 56996 54032 43 266 42 254 40 260 36 259 54032 51183 51 259 49 246 45 251 36 254 51183 48600 57 250 53 244 48 249 38 254 48600 46275 60 241 58 241 51 245 44 255 46275 44170 59 238 60 235 54 241 49 250 44170 42247 60 238 59 234 54 240 48 245 42247 40478 62 237 56 235 53 242 46 247 40478 38842 59 236 55 236 52 243 46 247 38842 37319 56 239 55 236 50 241 46 242 37319 35892 59 242 55 236 47 239 44 237 35892 34525 58 240 56 237 47 239 41 238 34525 33151 54 243 59 235 50 237 43 241 33151 31744 60 243 60 231 53 232 46 237 31744 30313 65 238 58 233 54 228 45 232 30313 28849 60 240 58 236 54 229 43 223 28849 27339 55 247 58 237 54 232 39 219 27339 25773 53 251 56 237 53 235 39 223 25773 24141 50 252 52 238 50 236 40 227 24141 22445 45 253 48 239 47 237 34 236 22445 20689 41 258 45 241 41 239 25 248 20689 18866 36 259 39 245 33 241 23 253 18866 16972 32 263 31 247 23 247 20 260 16972 15043 18 271 19 258 16 270 20 274 15043 13185 15 282 18 267 15 284 14 283 13185 11494 11 296 13 284 14 297 11 306 11494 9988 14 324 11 317 11 316 14 327 9988 8646 16 336 18 331 13 333 16 330 8646 7452 19 338 20 335 16 326 18 331 7452 6393 20 334 17 334 16 326 21 330 6393 5457 19 333 15*335 17*328 22 330 5457 4631 19*334 15*337 17*330 22 330 4631 3898 19*335 15 339 16 330 21 331 3898 3241 17 338 15 340 16 332 20 331 3241 2658 16 339 15 341 16 332 19 332 2658 2171 16 339 14 342 15 332 17 332 2171 1796 15 340 14 343 15 332 15 331 1796 1538 14 340 13 343 14 332 13 331 1538 1381 12 340 12 343 12 332 11*330 1381 1291 9 340 10 344 9 332 7*331 1291 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography