DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/16 Williams 105ft pt35866@39.135,-122.099 SPONSORED BY: Milt Hare RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.4 - - 61.1 - - 69.6 - - 71.9 - - 60.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 70 - - 81 - - -6 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 810 - - 1784 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 104 - - 105 - - 106 - - 106 - - 105 Hcrit BL Top 121 - - 915 - - 1890 - - 123 - - 122 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 213 - - 949 - - 1501 - - 3805 - - 159 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 162 - - 224 - - 16 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 9 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 308 - - 346 - - 344 - - 311 - - 261 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -1 - - -4 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -368 - - -1016 - - -2142 - - -5561 - - -3676 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 489 - - 1931 - - 4033 - - 5684 - - 3798 sfcLCL ODpotential -11056 - - -6045 - - -7896 - - -11337 - - -13118 ODpotential blCL 11177 - - 6960 - - 9786 - - 11460 - - 13240 blCL maxRH 83 - - 78 - - 59 - - 37 - - 38 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.4 - - 61.1 - - 69.6 - - 71.9 - - 60.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.9 - - 53.2 - - 52.6 - - 47.7 - - 44.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.3 - - 60.5 - - 69.0 - - 72.5 - - 65.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 47.0 - - 52.1 - - 51.3 - - 46.6 - - 44.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 70 - - 81 - - -6 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 810 - - 1784 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 33 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96982 22 299 26 303 29 290 21 294 21 292 96982 89848 18 308 16 304 13 285 20 286 19 300 89848 84335 14 283 14 298 13 294 15 282 18 290 84335 79762 10 287 5 268 13 283 10 280 10 272 79762 75812 7 287 4 228 10 254 9 270 4 245 75812 72297 4 255 2 231 6 237 6 278 3 322 72297 69098 3 241 2 265 5 273 4 267 7 337 69098 66151 4 288 3 269 7 267 4 324 6 328 66151 63416 7 267 5 334 4 271 7 351 4 357 63416 60768 7 270 11 326 5 346 9 354 5 037 60768 58009 11 319 10 316 5 001 9 355 5 045 58009 55150 15 329 11 328 9 351 12 353 10 020 55150 52440 21 331 15 343 14 348 15 008 18 033 52440 50010 23 331 22 358 22 003 21 016 27 040 50010 47829 27 334 26 001 28 008 25 026 36 034 47829 45843 30 340 29 005 31 019 31 035 40 042 45843 44016 31 339 32 007 39 027 41 044 55 048 44016 42327 32 338 35 011 44 028 55 044 66 048 42327 40754 32 338 40 011 48 028 60 039 67 049 40754 39277 32 339 39 011 50 031 57 035 66 050 39277 37883 33 341 36 018 52 036 51 037 65 049 37883 36539 34 340 38 027 56 043 52 045 65 046 36539 35176 31 338 43 035 64 045 60 045 66 041 35176 33763 29 340 48 039 68 044 61 042 66 039 33763 32295 30 344 50 039 68 042 58 040 64 039 32295 30756 31 355 45 035 67 041 55 039 63 037 30756 29134 33 359 38 030 66 043 57 037 65 035 29134 27424 34 355 34 030 61 046 58 037 61 035 27424 25627 34 354 32 027 51 049 55 040 53 036 25627 23746 33 356 32 024 41 040 46 041 47 038 23746 21782 32 359 32 022 37 032 38 037 38 042 21782 19730 33 003 32 018 34 030 34 032 30 043 19730 17582 37 009 32 015 33 030 34 033 29 042 17582 15390 40 013 32 017 33 028 33 035 29 047 15390 13282 37 017 31 020 31 026 31 038 26 052 13282 11371 30 021 28 020 28 023 27 041 22 053 11371 9679 25 023 24 020 26 024 22 044 18 054 9679 8183 20 022 20 025 22 028 17 051 17 057 8183 6859 14 023 15 031 17 033 15 063 16 061 6859 5685 12 030 12 032 13 034 14 068 15 062 5685 4648 11 035 10 029 11 027 12 062 14 058 4648 3736 12 029 10 024 10 016 10 032 13 035 3736 2933 15 018 13 015 12 003 10 005 15 021 2933 2218 14 007 19 005 12*354 10 358 12 023 2218 1587 11 354 19 359 11*347 8 351 8 029 1587 1062 9 350 14*352 10 345 7 340 6 024 1062 660 9 350 9*346 9 343 6 329 4 357 660 384 9 339 8 346 8 342 5 320 4 300 384 217 5*315 8 347 8 341 5*315 5*268 217 122 4*308 7 346 7 341 4*311 4*261 122 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography