DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Animas_CO 8800ft pt30207@37.366,-108.034,9098ft SPONSORED BY: Dave Piotrowski BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -1.0 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.7 - - 45.5 - - 47.1 - - 44.6 - - 39.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 97 - - 123 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 562 - - 562 - - 563 - - 563 - - 562 BL Depth Hcrit 9345 - - 9345 - - 9346 - - 9346 - - 9346 Hcrit BL Top 9362 - - 9362 - - 9363 - - 9363 - - 9362 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1539 - - 2012 - - 3489 - - 3063 - - 2017 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 172 - - 184 - - 27 - - 0 W* B/S 2 - - 8 - - 7 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 156 - - 102 - - 200 - - 230 - - 007 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 15 - - 4 - - -11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6978 - - -1379 - - -444 - - 1 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 16340 - - 10742 - - 9807 - - 9363 - - 9362 sfcLCL ODpotential -16240 - - -5136 - - -2645 - - -2071 - - -3574 ODpotential blCL 25602 - - 14498 - - 12008 - - 11434 - - 12936 blCL maxRH 95 - - 91 - - 89 - - 91 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 50 - - 60 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m 38.7 - - 45.5 - - 47.1 - - 44.6 - - 39.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 1.1 - - 31.1 - - 36.6 - - 38.6 - - 33.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.3 - - 43.7 - - 45.2 - - 44.4 - - 43.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 0.3 - - 30.1 - - 35.6 - - 37.5 - - 33.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 97 - - 123 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 562 - - 562 - - 563 - - 563 - - 562 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 80 - - 62 - - 57 - - 63 - - 81 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97607 14 263 30 286 22 268 24 300 24 300 97607 90340 16 289 25 268 25 273 22 278 26 298 90340 84752 16 288 18 267 21 270 22 276 25 297 84752 80096 15 267 14 298 14 264 19 276 18 296 80096 76083 14 269 10 299 8 256 12 293 13 291 76083 72563 13 281 8 277 5 296 11 316 14 293 72563 69406 12 286 10 277 9 297 9 302 14 308 69406 66507 10 299 10 283 12 282 10 275 10 300 66507 63804 17 298 13 274 15 259 15 271 11 291 63804 61179 21 288 15 286 16 266 18 275 16 284 61179 58453 27 276 25 285 23 269 24 276 23 275 58453 55640 29 264 28 271 24 264 29 264 31 267 55640 52966 37 274 35 277 32 281 34 268 37 267 52966 50555 49 269 49 275 47 276 44 269 44 267 50555 48380 49 267 55 271 53 271 50 268 51 265 48380 46389 50 273 56 269 56 269 55 268 55 263 46389 44545 54 273 58 269 58 268 58 269 55 265 44545 42826 57 271 60 268 58 269 58 268 54 267 42826 41213 61 269 61 266 58 268 58 266 55 267 41213 39701 61 267 61 263 58 267 56 266 56 265 39701 38287 59 263 59 259 57 264 55 267 56 264 38287 36946 58 260 56 255 56 261 54 267 54 267 36946 35616 50 256 57 254 51 259 52 265 52 269 35616 34275 32 244 52 254 51 259 51 264 49 268 34275 32927 19 212 34 242 44 259 44 262 46 268 32927 31560 21 204 22 199 24 250 31 264 38 270 31560 30171 18 217 17 192 6 218 23 266 29 270 30171 28775 15 220 12 201 3 152 3 246 14 280 28775 27377 14 218 10 198 6 172 6 096 8 283 27377 25976 14 207 11 191 8 166 5 127 7 275 25976 24569 15 200 10 184 11 188 4 206 7 276 24569 23150 15 199 10 186 13 214 5 250 6 276 23150 21714 15 199 13 195 13 229 8 242 6 259 21714 20286 15 196 15 221 13 235 10 238 10 250 20286 18932 15 195 19 240 15 237 11 243 12 251 18932 17707 14 189 21 244 18 240 14 254 13 251 17707 16610 11 178 21 242 21 243 17 261 13 253 16610 15620 7 167 20 240 22 246 18 263 13 254 15620 14717 4 161 19 239 21 248 18 260 14 254 14717 13889 3 181 18 240 18 250 18 256 14 252 13889 13131 4 229 16 240 15 250 16 252 13 249 13131 12438 7 230 14 237 12 248 14 249 12 245 12438 11804 8 223 12 228 10 241 12 248 10 241 11804 11216 8 213 10 210 7 227 8 247 7 229 11216 10681 7 202 6 182 6 215 6 247 6 213 10681 10221 5 186 5 136 6 208 5 247 4 194 10221 9860 4 165 5 105 6 205 4 243 2 174 9860 9608 3 166 5 101 6 203 4 237 1 151 9608 9452 3*161 5*100 6*202 3*233 0 098 9452 9362 1*156 4*102 5*200 2*230 1*007 9362 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography