DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 03/17 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.9 - - 65.6 - - 72.0 - - 71.4 - - 57.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 225 - - 354 - - 125 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2252 - - 3949 - - 3018 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 4671 - - 6106 - - 4949 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5655 - - 7352 - - 6421 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 168 - - 1433 - - 1639 - - 2412 - - 943 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 330 - - 463 - - 300 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 12 - - 18 - - 17 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 165 - - 266 - - 262 - - 262 - - 264 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 9 - - 9 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - 4 - - -3 - - -3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6768 - - -7345 - - -6965 - - -6884 - - -4871 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10326 - - 13001 - - 14317 - - 13305 - - 8429 sfcLCL ODpotential -19035 - - -15057 - - -14083 - - -13884 - - -13730 ODpotential blCL 22592 - - 20712 - - 21435 - - 20305 - - 17288 blCL maxRH 71 - - 63 - - 51 - - 70 - - 62 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.9 - - 65.6 - - 72.0 - - 71.4 - - 57.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 16.3 - - 21.2 - - 21.5 - - 25.5 - - 33.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.8 - - 63.9 - - 69.7 - - 70.3 - - 62.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 16.2 - - 21.2 - - 21.4 - - 25.5 - - 33.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 225 - - 354 - - 125 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2252 - - 3949 - - 3018 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96545 10 268 17 272 10 266 5 302 13 254 96545 89499 5 046 10 206 10 236 9 326 5 048 89499 84052 2 006 5 118 6 201 12 288 5 358 84052 79498 5 252 8 132 8 221 13 297 7 313 79498 75557 5 217 5 150 7 247 11 289 11 313 75557 72069 4 309 2 018 7 296 6 299 11 321 72069 68911 13 302 12 327 13 330 11 302 12 289 68911 66018 4 319 7 356 8 001 12 358 6 315 66018 63332 21 316 29 314 25 307 20 309 17 308 63332 60730 25 295 31 299 31 294 27 286 28 292 60730 58021 11 301 23 293 29 294 24 287 27 288 58021 55199 20 309 30 297 30 295 26 287 31 282 55199 52488 49 292 39 292 35 293 33 286 36 278 52488 50035 60 289 45 290 42 289 48 289 40 283 50035 47830 69 287 56 288 49 289 58 291 50 293 47830 45845 77 284 68 289 64 292 69 287 73 294 45845 44056 83 281 82 290 77 286 78 279 76 277 44056 42409 86 281 81 289 70 280 78 271 71 289 42409 40869 86 281 73 296 69 296 64 281 69 293 40869 39424 83 280 76 299 70 297 66 289 66 285 39424 38063 83 281 76 293 67 289 69 282 64 275 38063 36747 85 284 78 290 68 283 68 272 61 270 36747 35411 85 284 78 291 70 283 68 272 62 268 35411 34029 87 282 77 290 72 284 65 274 67 269 34029 32608 86 280 78 287 75 284 65 276 73 271 32608 31139 81 280 77 287 75 282 70 278 80 274 31139 29613 77 280 76 286 75 280 75 280 85 276 29613 28026 75 279 77 283 77 281 77 282 85 278 28026 26381 75 279 81 281 80 283 77 284 81 281 26381 24680 76 280 82 281 81 286 74 287 73 284 24680 22928 77 282 78 283 77 288 69 290 66 286 22928 21115 75 283 68 285 70 288 65 291 60 285 21115 19235 66 284 56 285 60 285 62 288 55 283 19235 17324 57 285 48 283 51 282 55 282 51 280 17324 15487 48 286 45 281 45 278 47 275 46 274 15487 13819 42 285 43 279 42 275 42 268 42 266 13819 12336 37 282 41 276 40 272 39 264 40 260 12336 11015 33 278 38 272 37 268 36 262 38 260 11015 9834 30 274 35 269 35 266 33 260 36 262 9834 8778 29 271 33 268 32 263 30 257 34 263 8778 7836 29 268 31 268 26*261 26 255 32 262 7836 6999 29 266 28 268 21*260 21*256 30 259 6999 6253 30 263 24*268 19 261 19*258 28 255 6253 5580 29 261 18*267 18 261 18 260 25 251 5580 4979 27 256 13 265 18 262 17 262 21 249 4979 4475 23 248 12 266 17 262 17 263 16 249 4475 4085 16 238 11 266 16 263 16 265 12 251 4085 3816 10 226 10 267 16 264 16 265 7 256 3816 3652 6*196 10 267 15 264 15 266 5*264 3652 3558 5*165 9 267 13 265 12 266 4*264 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography