DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/15 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.9 - - 45.6 - - 54.5 - - 55.5 - - 47.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 128 - - 130 - - 49 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1656 - - 2636 - - 2095 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3980 - - 4692 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5059 - - 6039 - - 5498 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 229 - - 1222 - - 1991 - - 2123 - - 1344 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 246 - - 289 - - 194 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 8 - - 4 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 6 - - 8 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 159 - - 175 - - 282 - - 337 - - 084 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -4 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2055 - - -6144 - - -6231 - - -5121 - - -7836 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5611 - - 11203 - - 12271 - - 10620 - - 11394 sfcLCL ODpotential -13311 - - -18714 - - -16695 - - -14845 - - -19962 ODpotential blCL 16867 - - 23773 - - 22734 - - 20343 - - 23519 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 32.9 - - 45.6 - - 54.5 - - 55.5 - - 47.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.4 - - 9.5 - - 13.4 - - 21.7 - - 11.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 33.1 - - 44.5 - - 53.2 - - 54.9 - - 50.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.3 - - 9.3 - - 13.3 - - 21.4 - - 10.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 128 - - 130 - - 49 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1656 - - 2636 - - 2095 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 101 - - 96 - - 101 - - 71 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96504 5 093 7 102 7 254 12 345 13 018 96504 89428 10 041 12 069 2 162 5 026 10 038 89428 83930 13 050 10 051 7 071 3 113 6 031 83930 79372 12 026 7 030 9 081 4 084 2 005 79372 75439 10 036 4 350 6 017 10 039 7 070 75439 71960 16 036 6 025 7 006 10 009 14 034 71960 68815 18 018 13 026 8 012 10 004 14 014 68815 65917 28 002 19 003 13 014 14 357 17 348 65917 63220 30 340 23 347 21 352 20 350 20 339 63220 60593 31 334 28 347 27 342 23 341 25 346 60593 57843 37 339 36 338 33 333 34 336 41 341 57843 54993 48 338 48 342 44 339 53 333 45 332 54993 52275 57 337 59 336 62 334 56 333 49 335 52275 49830 68 337 67 336 69 333 59 342 59 337 49830 47646 86 335 83 336 78 339 77 337 73 334 47646 45683 93 330 91 332 84 332 90 321 84 322 45683 43910 85 329 84 334 78 329 87 313 77 324 43910 42279 76 340 90 342 81 331 88 318 90 337 42279 40748 87 348 97 340 89 329 96 317 114 338 40748 39306 98 349 96 335 92 326 98 318 111 334 39306 37946 103 346 95 332 93 325 98 319 98 330 37946 36633 100 341 95 332 93 325 96 320 88 325 36633 35300 99 337 97 331 94 325 94 320 85 324 35300 33919 101 334 97 330 96 325 92 321 89 322 33919 32497 100 333 95 330 94 327 87 323 89 322 32497 31022 98 334 89 332 89 329 81 325 84 323 31022 29482 94 333 86 332 85 330 74 325 82 323 29482 27883 90 332 85 331 84 330 71 324 66 326 27883 26229 86 332 83 331 84 330 72 321 55 324 26229 24520 83 330 77 329 79 329 70 318 58 317 24520 22754 75 321 71 326 70 324 66 316 66 314 22754 20926 68 316 65 325 64 318 63 316 70 315 20926 19033 65 324 55 323 56 315 61 315 67 313 19033 17119 66 336 44 320 48 312 55 313 61 310 17119 15290 66 341 40 325 42 308 47 311 53 309 15290 13637 64 341 45 333 36 312 40 313 45 311 13637 12169 55 334 49 334 34 322 37 314 38 311 12169 10862 40 318 45 330 34 324 33 312 32 308 10862 9698 26 293 36 321 32 321 30 306 28 304 9698 8658 18 262 27 304 27 312 26 300 24 300 8658 7732 11 260 17 274 20 301 22 294 21 295 7732 6910 7 328 14 241 14 288 17 290 18 290 6910 6180 6 356 11 215 10*278 12 293 15 285 6180 5522 1 334 10*198 8*276 9*307 10 281 5522 4936 5 209 9*180 7 280 8*329 6 283 4936 4446 9 207 9 177 6 282 8 336 2 323 4446 4067 11 211 8 174 6 285 8 339 2 062 4067 3806 10 194 7 173 6 287 8 340 3 066 3806 3648 7*171 7 171 5 288 8 341 3*068 3648 3557 4*159 6 171 5 289 7 342 2*084 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography