DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1002z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.3 - - 46.2 - - 50.1 - - 49.4 - - 43.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -21 - - 60 - - 96 - - -10 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2298 - - 3795 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 5317 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5701 - - 7198 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1437 - - 2150 - - 1980 - - 4395 - - 1665 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 218 - - 296 - - 0 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 15 - - 19 - - 11 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 214 - - 205 - - 185 - - 166 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -5 - - -7 - - -7 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -413 - - 41 - - 5 - - -3201 - - -1664 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3969 - - 5660 - - 7193 - - 6759 - - 5221 sfcLCL ODpotential -3096 - - -1294 - - -923 - - -6977 - - -7418 ODpotential blCL 6652 - - 6995 - - 8121 - - 10534 - - 10975 blCL maxRH 86 - - 87 - - 91 - - 88 - - 90 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 37.3 - - 46.2 - - 50.1 - - 49.4 - - 43.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 32.3 - - 33.6 - - 30.8 - - 32.0 - - 32.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 39.0 - - 45.5 - - 49.2 - - 49.6 - - 44.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 32.1 - - 33.2 - - 30.6 - - 31.9 - - 32.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -21 - - 60 - - 96 - - -10 - - -36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 2298 - - 3795 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 45 - - 48 - - 65 - - 51 - - 62 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96159 2 216 4 001 5 231 5 269 16 300 96159 89150 9 082 1 337 5 242 6 332 4 329 89150 83692 7 359 3 061 8 273 5 308 9 342 83692 79140 7 292 7 027 3 290 7 263 9 311 79140 75222 7 292 4 305 7 320 6 291 4 305 75222 71746 6 342 5 246 7 257 10 255 8 266 71746 68574 15 293 4 252 4 275 10 204 14 255 68574 65646 22 274 12 287 13 290 10 240 17 222 65646 62921 16 298 10 291 11 269 8 258 8 254 62921 60274 14 330 13 315 13 299 19 278 24 272 60274 57526 34 313 27 310 22 306 22 271 24 270 57526 54676 45 306 39 310 35 294 22 281 22 274 54676 51938 43 307 50 292 41 276 32 279 31 267 51938 49457 40 314 39 287 35 279 40 267 37 260 49457 47223 45 328 35 303 41 291 45 269 37 264 47223 45184 66 334 54 310 54 292 54 275 49 271 45184 43309 84 321 64 300 64 287 66 274 65 268 43309 41579 91 306 61 292 65 286 69 273 73 263 41579 39973 82 310 54 291 67 290 75 276 76 263 39973 38477 74 314 58 303 84 292 88 277 85 266 38477 37085 86 315 85 307 98 286 99 273 96 265 37085 35761 102 314 102 303 98 283 100 269 102 260 35761 34437 107 313 103 301 95 285 97 268 105 257 34437 33077 109 314 99 301 90 288 94 269 107 258 33077 31681 110 313 95 302 87 287 92 271 106 259 31681 30235 109 313 92 300 85 285 87 271 100 260 30235 28732 100 316 86 299 79 284 79 270 92 260 28732 27177 84 319 75 302 69 284 68 269 83 259 27177 25571 73 316 63 307 58 283 59 268 72 257 25571 23918 69 313 56 304 47 282 56 267 63 257 23918 22218 63 317 54 298 39 282 52 267 56 256 22218 20465 55 322 45 298 36 283 46 266 52 253 20465 18652 39 320 32 298 33 281 39 264 46 246 18652 16813 26 303 23 277 31 274 34 260 38 237 16813 15048 25 285 20 258 27 263 29 256 32 229 15048 13443 27 276 19 263 22 249 26 252 31 229 13443 12014 27 270 22 258 21 240 26 245 32 231 12014 10740 25 269 26 251 25 236 27 236 35 232 10740 9600 25 272 28 246 28 232 28 228 37 230 9600 8581 25 273 28 245 26 224 27 220 38 228 8581 7672 28 271 28 243 23*214 26 212 38 224 7672 6866 30 266 27 239 21*207 26 204 37 219 6866 6148 31 260 24*232 21 206 25 199 37 213 6148 5500 29 253 20*224 20 205 24 196 35 205 5500 4923 24 243 17 217 20 205 23 194 32 197 4923 4439 19 230 15 212 19 205 21 191 28 190 4439 4064 14 210 13 209 18 204 20 189 24 182 4064 3805 11 184 12 208 17 204 17 187 19 174 3805 3647 10*171 11 206 16 204 15*186 16*170 3647 3557 6*166 10 206 13 204 11*185 9*166 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography