DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/17 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.6 - - 73.3 - - 83.0 - - 82.3 - - 68.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 207 - - 335 - - 130 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1608 - - 5084 - - 3578 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 4182 - - 6967 - - 5369 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5011 - - 8487 - - 6981 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 188 - - 1244 - - 2854 - - 5264 - - 1652 Hgt.Variab. W* 18 - - 287 - - 494 - - 321 - - 5 W* B/S 1 - - 15 - - 28 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 12 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 189 - - 328 - - 358 - - 348 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 8 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -5 - - -9 - - 7 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3209 - - -6530 - - -5946 - - -7334 - - -6531 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6766 - - 11542 - - 14434 - - 14316 - - 10089 sfcLCL ODpotential -13698 - - -13010 - - -10308 - - -11687 - - -13251 ODpotential blCL 17255 - - 18021 - - 18795 - - 18668 - - 16809 blCL maxRH 41 - - 36 - - 39 - - 42 - - 39 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.6 - - 73.3 - - 83.0 - - 82.3 - - 68.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.0 - - 35.3 - - 31.7 - - 31.6 - - 37.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.5 - - 71.7 - - 80.6 - - 81.1 - - 71.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.6 - - 35.1 - - 31.6 - - 31.5 - - 37.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 207 - - 335 - - 130 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1608 - - 5084 - - 3578 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98162 11 071 6 063 6 088 5 049 2 252 98162 90831 9 059 3 071 3 160 6 329 10 004 90831 85189 8 018 4 113 2 241 6 325 6 349 85189 80520 7 015 9 095 4 144 2 319 2 046 80520 76487 4 068 8 056 8 117 3 033 9 056 76487 72923 9 097 4 065 5 097 5 063 7 055 72923 69708 8 080 7 094 2 064 7 076 7 090 69708 66748 2 118 3 098 4 099 4 107 6 123 66748 63991 4 205 5 212 2 015 3 139 4 149 63991 61315 7 213 8 213 6 265 3 275 2 263 61315 58529 7 241 8 251 6 266 4 267 4 264 58529 55646 13 230 18 240 18 258 16 271 9 283 55646 52896 14 259 17 224 22 243 24 256 20 269 52896 50423 26 267 19 246 25 241 31 249 33 257 50423 48212 29 255 25 251 29 243 35 246 40 250 48212 46206 28 249 30 255 32 248 37 247 42 249 46206 44367 29 253 34 256 35 252 39 250 42 247 44367 42670 32 256 34 255 36 253 38 256 38 244 42670 41095 31 259 32 254 35 253 38 259 34 245 41095 39626 27 261 30 252 34 250 38 256 31 249 39626 38250 23 266 26 251 31 248 34 249 32 251 38250 36929 21 271 23 253 25 246 28 243 29 249 36929 35594 20 273 21 257 21 248 25 241 26 244 35594 34217 20 273 19 260 21 251 22 244 23 240 34217 32802 20 273 18 260 22 253 21 245 21 239 32802 31336 23 268 19 261 22 253 21 245 19 243 31336 29808 25 263 21 262 21 250 21 244 19 247 29808 28221 22 257 22 259 21 248 21 243 19 250 28221 26574 20 254 22 252 21 246 22 242 19 250 26574 24869 18 257 20 253 20 247 22 244 20 248 24869 23109 16 262 16 257 17 245 20 246 20 246 23109 21289 11 264 12 253 13 237 17 240 19 246 21289 19401 10 262 9 237 12 234 15 234 18 244 19401 17481 12 250 9 236 12 234 14 235 17 243 17481 15634 13 239 11 237 12 234 15 235 17 242 15634 13955 11 229 12 230 12 226 14 220 16 228 13955 12460 10 227 11 222 11 215 13 190 16 194 12460 11126 10 218 11 216 10 209 11 182 16 172 11126 9930 11 197 11 213 8 206 9 178 13 158 9930 8858 12 184 11 212 6*207 4 168 6 133 8858 7901 11 183 10 211 3*215 2 023 6 032 7901 7052 9 191 8 209 2 245 5*004 11 021 7052 6296 8 204 6 205 2 323 8*359 15 022 6296 5612 7 208 6*201 4 337 12 358 17 019 5612 5003 9 198 4*191 5 338 12 358 19 015 5003 4490 13 181 4 188 6 339 13 357 19 011 4490 4094 15 172 3 188 6 340 13 358 18 007 4094 3821 10 170 3 190 6 339 13 357 15 002 3821 3654 8 168 3 191 6 340 12 357 11 356 3654 3558 5*162 2 192 6 339 11 357 6*348 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography