DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/04 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.7 - - 40.4 - - 45.0 - - 42.1 - - 41.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -11 - - -4 - - -4 - - -20 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 3557 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 146 - - 240 - - 1260 - - 353 - - 626 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 14 - - 31 - - 18 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 4 - - 6 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 202 - - 195 - - 214 - - 260 - - 177 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - -2 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -706 - - -1847 - - -537 - - 0 - - -32 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4262 - - 5403 - - 4094 - - 3557 - - 3588 sfcLCL ODpotential -11437 - - -10491 - - -3993 - - -5424 - - -6011 ODpotential blCL 14993 - - 14047 - - 7550 - - 8981 - - 9567 blCL maxRH 98 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m 32.7 - - 40.4 - - 45.0 - - 42.1 - - 41.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.0 - - 29.7 - - 39.6 - - 39.0 - - 38.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.4 - - 41.3 - - 45.1 - - 44.0 - - 43.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.8 - - 29.2 - - 38.5 - - 38.6 - - 37.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -11 - - -4 - - -4 - - -20 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 92 - - 101 - - 102 - - 102 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96758 37 081 39 071 39 066 43 080 39 095 96758 89666 46 073 31 077 30 066 34 061 39 081 89666 84184 43 072 30 063 31 067 27 056 28 065 84184 79609 33 070 28 052 29 056 22 063 18 062 79609 75657 26 063 27 048 23 050 20 046 20 064 75657 72163 18 056 20 047 17 048 17 014 15 032 72163 68989 19 045 18 041 19 032 13 352 11 347 68989 66068 23 021 18 021 14 006 15 351 14 337 66068 63357 23 024 16 007 20 354 22 354 20 358 63357 60726 28 018 26 000 27 346 27 353 31 352 60726 57982 28 008 28 001 27 349 34 346 32 345 57982 55138 33 009 37 001 34 349 36 342 32 334 55138 52422 49 002 43 000 43 354 39 340 39 327 52422 49970 54 357 52 357 51 350 42 337 43 335 49970 47754 54 356 57 352 49 344 51 341 49 342 47754 45720 54 356 56 348 51 343 58 340 58 339 45720 43838 54 358 59 352 57 345 59 337 65 337 43838 42089 63 359 71 351 62 348 63 339 73 336 42089 40459 76 355 80 346 70 348 72 338 76 334 40459 38938 81 351 84 343 79 342 76 338 77 338 38938 37523 81 349 82 341 78 339 82 342 88 344 37523 36179 84 348 80 342 78 343 90 346 102 346 36179 34839 85 348 82 345 87 346 97 348 112 346 34839 33468 83 347 85 346 101 346 107 350 120 347 33468 32068 81 346 83 345 105 345 115 350 123 348 32068 30621 76 344 78 343 100 343 113 350 118 347 30621 29117 72 338 72 344 94 342 102 349 109 344 29117 27554 72 338 61 343 84 343 91 348 97 343 27554 25934 72 341 57 343 71 342 79 346 85 343 25934 24259 70 345 56 344 63 340 67 345 78 340 24259 22531 67 348 55 345 59 335 63 340 76 337 22531 20745 65 351 57 344 56 335 61 335 72 336 20745 18898 60 353 61 345 53 337 58 334 62 336 18898 17029 52 351 60 345 52 335 57 336 56 336 17029 15235 46 348 53 345 50 329 56 335 55 336 15235 13602 38 348 44 341 47 326 55 331 53 334 13602 12145 29 349 38 334 45 325 53 329 49 330 12145 10845 24 352 32 327 41 324 52 330 44 327 10845 9681 22 349 25 321 37 320 50 331 41 326 9681 8639 21 339 19 316 32 315 47 331 40 325 8639 7712 20 332 15 314 27 308 43 326 40 322 7712 6891 18 333 12 316 19 300 38 316 38 315 6891 6162 16 332 11 324 13 292 33 306 34 308 6162 5508 14 328 12 325 11 281 27 298 26 301 5508 4927 8 329 9 323 13 266 21 289 17 290 4927 4440 2 306 3 304 15 249 19 276 15 273 4440 4065 5 248 6 248 13 236 17 268 12 266 4065 3805 10 239 8 237 10 229 15 265 7 264 3805 3647 7*216 6 218 7*222 11*263 3 251 3647 3556 5*202 3*195 4*214 6*260 1*177 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography