DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/03 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 56.1 - - 69.1 - - 76.3 - - 74.9 - - 68.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 45 - - 365 - - 422 - - 115 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 271 - - 2794 - - 9426 - - 7446 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3541 - - 5230 - - 10557 - - 8139 - - 3542 Hcrit BL Top 3674 - - 6197 - - 12829 - - 10849 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 626 - - 2619 - - 3614 - - 6386 - - 7460 Hgt.Variab. W* 96 - - 417 - - 657 - - 395 - - 13 W* B/S 4 - - 21 - - 19 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 14 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 240 - - 019 - - 051 - - 029 - - 022 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 18 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - -13 - - 7 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3215 - - -3581 - - 648 - - -1321 - - -7267 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6889 - - 9779 - - 12181 - - 12170 - - 10826 sfcLCL ODpotential -7600 - - -5185 - - -534 - - -2404 - - -9580 ODpotential blCL 11274 - - 11382 - - 13363 - - 13253 - - 13138 blCL maxRH 67 - - 71 - - 93 - - 96 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 50 - - 290 - - 220 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m 56.1 - - 69.1 - - 76.3 - - 74.9 - - 68.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.5 - - 38.5 - - 34.7 - - 33.5 - - 33.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 55.6 - - 66.8 - - 73.6 - - 74.0 - - 70.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.4 - - 38.3 - - 34.4 - - 33.3 - - 33.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 45 - - 365 - - 422 - - 115 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 271 - - 2794 - - 9426 - - 7446 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 72 - - 85 - - 4 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97572 3 145 14 202 17 234 14 271 7 272 97572 90091 11 163 9 211 8 278 7 229 7 220 90091 84379 6 155 6 207 8 270 5 255 4 230 84379 79695 4 006 3 294 9 247 7 294 6 329 79695 75672 14 013 4 338 8 254 12 320 11 346 75672 72106 15 355 8 348 6 283 12 325 10 327 72106 68868 10 341 11 348 7 310 10 327 7 324 68868 65884 8 348 10 349 8 322 10 317 9 327 65884 63100 8 349 9 348 9 324 11 311 12 325 63100 60386 8 344 10 343 11 324 13 313 14 324 60386 57539 9 340 11 337 12 324 13 322 15 327 57539 54584 10 344 9 334 11 324 12 330 14 334 54584 51770 11 353 8 335 10 327 11 327 14 340 51770 49251 10 002 8 345 9 346 11 335 11 341 49251 47007 10 016 8 003 10 005 9 355 11 011 47007 44983 12 025 9 034 7 022 12 027 14 028 44983 43145 10 027 13 053 8 064 16 029 18 052 43145 41464 11 058 16 056 15 069 15 040 25 051 41464 39919 13 065 12 065 21 065 18 057 24 049 39919 38491 10 085 5 106 18 055 25 065 21 068 38491 37162 4 023 8 097 2 341 29 068 27 082 37162 35887 16 283 16 013 4 057 28 068 34 076 35887 34602 18 255 12 337 13 024 24 066 35 069 34602 33278 16 251 6 322 13 358 19 064 31 066 33278 31916 13 255 8 003 12 355 15 062 29 069 31916 30505 8 260 13 010 10 026 10 054 29 078 30505 29034 5 266 8 024 6 051 9 053 25 082 29034 27505 3 256 2 027 6 041 12 061 19 083 27505 25919 2 133 3 138 8 056 11 060 16 080 25919 24276 3 142 6 136 9 066 9 064 14 074 24276 22581 3 167 9 111 8 087 7 070 13 068 22581 20828 1 117 9 103 9 105 5 094 10 045 20828 19010 4 057 11 114 9 128 9 145 6 026 19010 17163 4 107 11 122 12 143 10 138 2 178 17163 15385 7 142 9 124 14 132 10 129 4 151 15385 13765 9 141 8 138 13*125 9 120 4 121 13765 12314 6 136 12 145 12*120 8 100 4 078 12314 11014 4 140 12 133 9 103 8*071 7 054 11014 9846 4 132 11 119 8 095 10*052 10 046 9846 8798 5 119 10 118 7 070 12 040 13 043 8798 7858 6 116 10 113 7 043 14 031 15 043 7858 7021 6 102 8 110 8 024 15 028 17 042 7021 6274 7 088 4*094 9 016 16 026 18 041 6274 5597 6 088 3*041 9 013 16 024 19 039 5597 4993 5 104 3 023 10 010 16 023 19 037 4993 4484 2 138 4 017 10 008 16 022 19 035 4484 4091 3 256 4 013 10 006 16 022 18 032 4091 3819 5*252 4 011 10 006 15 022 15 028 3819 3653 4*240 4 010 10 006 15 021 12 025 3653 3558 4 240 4 010 9 005 12 021 7*022 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography