DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/27 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 29.8 - - 40.3 - - 50.6 - - 49.6 - - 39.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -19 - - 22 - - 109 - - -16 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 2019 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 4145 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 5422 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 201 - - 791 - - 1420 - - 3083 - - 484 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 63 - - 250 - - 7 - - 11 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 7 - - 13 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 140 - - 154 - - 189 - - 186 - - 167 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -5 - - -6 - - -5 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3614 - - -5761 - - -5795 - - -7772 - - -6086 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7171 - - 9317 - - 11218 - - 11329 - - 9643 sfcLCL ODpotential -14965 - - -15194 - - -13154 - - -13497 - - -13673 ODpotential blCL 18521 - - 18750 - - 18576 - - 17054 - - 17229 blCL maxRH 80 - - 87 - - 75 - - 82 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 29.8 - - 40.3 - - 50.6 - - 49.6 - - 39.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 11.7 - - 12.6 - - 14.1 - - 12.6 - - 10.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 34.7 - - 40.4 - - 49.7 - - 50.5 - - 43.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 11.5 - - 12.3 - - 13.8 - - 12.2 - - 10.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -19 - - 22 - - 109 - - -16 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 2019 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 20 - - 49 - - 0 - - 26 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95269 91 338 99 330 95 330 97 330 88 323 95269 88451 88 339 80 330 83 332 88 335 79 330 88451 83060 74 335 66 330 77 329 79 337 71 336 83060 78509 68 330 62 328 72 320 76 330 67 335 78509 74560 70 324 58 327 64 315 69 321 69 331 74560 71066 65 321 49 329 52 313 59 313 69 318 71066 67918 58 321 45 325 43 314 46 311 57 312 67918 65041 54 319 45 316 43 319 43 316 43 313 65041 62367 50 316 46 313 43 321 44 313 42 312 62367 59760 50 313 49 308 48 313 44 305 45 295 59760 57043 53 307 50 303 47 303 42 297 42 279 57043 54223 54 301 49 300 44 294 45 291 34 280 54223 51501 56 296 51 289 49 283 50 280 42 270 51501 49019 51 291 49 275 45 273 47 266 41 259 49019 46778 38 297 40 271 37 270 42 260 43 248 46778 44742 33 301 34 275 43 272 44 252 45 238 44742 42881 42 291 40 275 46 263 52 242 49 235 42881 41174 60 277 49 269 52 250 64 230 55 229 41174 39610 65 273 56 263 66 239 71 221 70 227 39610 38180 65 271 62 254 58 233 69 215 96 223 38180 36851 60 271 63 253 43 227 64 214 100 219 36851 35569 45 266 57 253 41 222 62 215 91 217 35569 34268 37 257 37 258 43 223 65 220 90 220 34268 32924 42 247 35 253 46 228 70 224 89 223 32924 31545 37 239 41 248 53 236 70 227 82 218 31545 30116 31 231 44 244 61 238 68 228 79 215 30116 28624 29 231 38 237 64 236 67 227 77 214 28624 27077 25 249 34 235 61 233 67 226 71 213 27077 25480 27 269 32 245 54 229 64 224 63 209 25480 23837 38 263 36 246 51 226 58 218 58 205 23837 22147 47 256 41 240 50 222 53 212 54 203 22147 20401 43 248 37 235 45 216 49 206 50 203 20401 18594 34 241 32 228 41 208 47 203 46 205 18594 16759 27 243 26 213 39 204 44 205 43 208 16759 14997 18 240 21 202 36 205 38 210 41 212 14997 13396 15 224 22 196 31 209 32 216 41 215 13396 11974 19 202 25 198 24 212 28 220 40 216 11974 10707 20 196 23 200 19 214 27 222 39 216 10707 9576 18 196 20 205 16 214 26 223 38 218 9576 8566 16 199 17 213 15 212 28 222 39 220 8566 7663 17 203 16 221 16 209 31 219 39 221 7663 6861 19 205 17 224 18 208 32 215 38 222 6861 6145 21 205 19 221 18 205 30 210 33 221 6145 5498 22 201 20 213 16*198 27 204 27 219 5498 4921 22 193 19 200 15*192 23 199 21 217 4921 4436 19 183 17 186 14 190 20 197 16 213 4436 4062 21 169 14 177 13 188 17 194 11 204 4062 3804 16 161 11 163 12 186 15 190 8 191 3804 3646 11*151 10 158 11 186 12*188 5 179 3646 3556 6*140 7*154 9 186 8*186 4*167 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography