DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/11 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 41.7 - - 46.4 - - 43.4 - - 36.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 189 - - 230 - - 23 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2209 - - 3807 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4572 - - 5828 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5612 - - 7210 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2503 - - 3604 - - 6177 - - 3265 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 309 - - 396 - - 63 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 16 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 021 - - 032 - - 006 - - 334 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 7 - - 6 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 169 - - 446 - - -2627 - - -984 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5444 - - 6764 - - 6185 - - 4540 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -414 - - 34 - - -3316 - - -3196 ODpotential blCL - - - 6026 - - 7176 - - 6873 - - 6752 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 94 - - 100 - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 50 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 41.7 - - 46.4 - - 43.4 - - 36.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 30.2 - - 29.0 - - 28.7 - - 29.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 40.3 - - 44.7 - - 42.9 - - 39.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 30.2 - - 29.0 - - 28.7 - - 29.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 189 - - 230 - - 23 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2209 - - 3807 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 96 - - 77 - - 101 - - 67 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97652 12 268 19 319 11 322 22 305 97652 90471 17 333 7 303 12 306 14 340 90471 84900 7 326 8 311 10 285 8 340 84900 80254 11 217 15 282 12 299 1 175 80254 76243 8 196 14 220 15 276 5 355 76243 72695 4 354 12 190 16 245 13 319 72695 69491 4 337 8 199 12 208 9 259 69491 66537 6 320 5 248 9 198 9 209 66537 63784 7 236 9 245 8 204 9 255 63784 61110 5 300 6 263 7 321 10 220 61110 58304 14 280 15 282 16 304 7 258 58304 55386 11 292 13 299 13 289 9 260 55386 52596 24 300 18 297 14 298 8 238 52596 50067 24 296 27 289 25 298 21 280 50067 47785 22 297 27 283 29 291 24 272 47785 45696 21 291 22 283 27 284 21 287 45696 43767 19 288 19 287 26 282 24 301 43767 41974 18 301 16 307 24 286 23 304 41974 40298 22 320 21 326 20 292 24 317 40298 38726 26 321 24 331 15 318 25 328 38726 37252 25 309 25 335 18 354 27 340 37252 35840 19 297 23 336 26 002 27 352 35840 34428 15 301 21 332 35 359 35 015 34428 32992 15 324 20 334 39 357 53 022 32992 31538 21 344 20 343 39 000 69 019 31538 30050 25 357 23 357 37 006 78 017 30050 28513 28 006 34 012 46 017 82 016 28513 26927 26 010 44 017 58 020 83 018 26927 25294 28 018 49 020 65 020 82 020 25294 23616 29 021 50 024 65 021 82 022 23616 21898 25 016 49 025 59 022 77 024 21898 20139 16 010 43 026 51 025 59 024 20139 18340 13 019 34 024 43 027 39 027 18340 16534 15 031 25 023 36 030 28 034 16534 14807 17 036 22 030 30 033 25 036 14807 13241 17 045 24 040 27 033 25 034 13241 11848 20 051 25 045 25 033 29 032 11848 10608 24 050 22 046 22 034 31 031 10608 9499 27 044 20 046 21 032 30 032 9499 8505 26 040 19 044 20 030 27 034 8505 7616 24 041 18*040 19 026 24 034 7616 6824 21 041 17*036 17 017 21 032 6824 6117 17*040 17 035 16 013 17 026 6117 5479 13*033 17 033 16 011 14 018 5479 4909 10 021 17 032 15 009 13 012 4909 4429 9 019 16 031 15 009 11 009 4429 4059 9 017 16 030 14 008 10 006 4059 3802 8 016 15 029 13 007 8 360 3802 3646 8 015 15 029 12*007 6*347 3646 3556 7 014 12 028 9*006 4*334 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography