DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/14 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.6 - - 56.1 - - 63.4 - - 64.3 - - 51.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 155 - - 252 - - 40 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1331 - - 3191 - - 3055 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3853 - - 5401 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 4734 - - 6594 - - 6458 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 126 - - 1267 - - 1589 - - 1781 - - 369 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 244 - - 384 - - 205 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 42 - - 20 - - 6 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 1 - - 3 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 183 - - 078 - - 037 - - 011 - - 327 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - -5 - - -4 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1 - - -3841 - - -2924 - - -4135 - - -3447 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3557 - - 8575 - - 9519 - - 10593 - - 7005 sfcLCL ODpotential -8842 - - -9653 - - -6717 - - -8218 - - -11102 ODpotential blCL 12399 - - 14387 - - 13311 - - 14676 - - 14660 blCL maxRH 85 - - 91 - - 90 - - 80 - - 53 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.6 - - 56.1 - - 63.4 - - 64.3 - - 51.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.9 - - 31.3 - - 34.2 - - 30.6 - - 33.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.9 - - 54.7 - - 61.5 - - 63.7 - - 55.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.8 - - 31.3 - - 34.2 - - 30.6 - - 33.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 155 - - 252 - - 40 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1331 - - 3191 - - 3055 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 39 - - 62 - - 60 - - 20 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97501 15 023 6 100 6 348 11 027 8 049 97501 90331 16 040 11 079 5 043 17 041 12 087 90331 84769 8 101 8 067 3 101 8 038 9 089 84769 80125 8 139 6 103 6 220 3 288 7 048 80125 76103 7 224 5 085 4 201 6 248 7 301 76103 72550 12 271 5 323 1 281 8 249 10 278 72550 69346 11 274 9 281 3 262 8 267 10 288 69346 66405 16 285 17 281 11 296 10 307 13 313 66405 63671 17 273 17 280 19 281 18 295 18 300 63671 61017 16 287 15 291 19 277 19 279 19 295 61017 58239 23 296 19 306 21 291 24 295 24 310 58239 55349 31 305 30 298 35 292 37 299 36 309 55349 52586 36 296 32 285 38 285 44 297 44 309 52586 50098 35 304 29 288 37 289 42 296 46 316 50098 47869 48 319 36 303 41 304 40 311 51 324 47869 45844 65 314 55 308 59 303 57 317 51 324 45844 43989 67 309 66 303 67 298 54 319 43 332 43989 42281 62 315 56 309 58 307 47 329 41 344 42281 40702 58 319 52 314 48 317 45 335 54 353 40702 39236 48 319 57 317 45 319 46 335 59 352 39236 37871 47 315 55 314 43 321 45 336 53 002 37871 36565 45 313 49 308 44 321 43 340 55 023 36565 35248 42 317 48 309 44 315 42 345 62 035 35248 33887 41 320 48 312 42 313 41 346 64 037 33887 32485 37 318 45 313 42 315 38 345 60 035 32485 31031 38 318 41 313 40 315 37 340 53 028 31031 29515 38 324 36 314 37 313 36 334 43 018 29515 27942 35 330 32 319 34 310 35 334 36 014 27942 26311 30 327 31 323 33 315 33 341 32 013 26311 24620 26 319 30 321 33 323 31 344 27 012 24620 22873 27 320 30 323 29 330 29 342 22 017 22873 21067 26 322 24 323 24 337 27 342 19 025 21067 19198 24 321 20 318 20 344 21 347 16 030 19198 17299 22 325 18 317 16 338 13 359 12 047 17299 15471 20 335 16 329 14 339 10 016 10 074 15471 13805 19 343 13 341 13 343 10 011 11 083 13805 12320 18 349 10 346 11 346 11 008 11 075 12320 10994 16 351 9 350 9 350 10 016 10 067 10994 9809 13 350 8 358 6 360 8 029 8 062 9809 8750 12 349 7 011 4 021 5 045 5 060 8750 7808 11 350 7 026 3 051 5 044 3 070 7808 6972 10 351 6 039 3*047 5*029 3 095 6972 6229 10 351 5 049 3*044 6*020 3 073 6229 5560 7 350 4 054 3 041 6 014 3 029 5560 4964 4 347 2*061 3 037 7 012 5 021 4964 4464 1 321 1*081 4 036 7 009 7 027 4464 4078 1 224 1 086 4 031 7 007 8 022 4078 3812 3 223 1 073 4 032 7 007 8 006 3812 3650 5*191 1 071 4 033 6 007 5*345 3650 3558 4*183 1 067 4 030 6 007 3*327 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography