DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/20 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 30.5 - - 34.7 - - 40.0 - - 37.3 - - 32.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 26 - - 55 - - 0 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 1763 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3539 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3539 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 5166 - - 3556 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1682 - - 2087 - - 2063 - - 2774 - - 338 Hgt.Variab. W* 23 - - 70 - - 199 - - 4 - - 12 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 6 - - 9 - - 1 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 218 - - 221 - - 246 - - 099 - - 147 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -4 - - 0 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -539 - - -1451 - - -765 - - -1297 - - -100 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4095 - - 5008 - - 5931 - - 4853 - - 3656 sfcLCL ODpotential -3706 - - -4048 - - -3791 - - -4020 - - -3843 ODpotential blCL 7262 - - 7604 - - 8957 - - 7576 - - 7399 blCL maxRH 69 - - 65 - - 64 - - 82 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 30.5 - - 34.7 - - 40.0 - - 37.3 - - 32.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.3 - - 25.4 - - 26.5 - - 28.6 - - 28.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 31.8 - - 34.4 - - 39.4 - - 38.8 - - 34.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.4 - - 24.3 - - 25.3 - - 27.4 - - 28.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 26 - - 55 - - 0 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 1763 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 28 - - 40 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96211 19 003 19 330 20 345 22 358 25 352 96211 89202 13 334 21 329 21 329 21 347 22 330 89202 83711 10 322 6 016 10 318 15 335 19 325 83711 79129 14 350 15 348 16 319 21 314 18 291 79129 75158 11 326 7 278 5 311 9 313 16 294 75158 71602 7 322 17 298 18 322 22 310 18 312 71602 68356 31 297 32 288 34 291 37 301 33 307 68356 65385 31 301 27 292 42 290 47 295 43 301 65385 62634 40 299 34 293 46 286 50 292 49 295 62634 59945 53 294 50 296 46 290 51 292 53 286 59945 57121 58 287 61 296 54 290 56 289 57 285 57121 54184 65 281 70 290 64 287 65 286 67 283 54184 51384 69 286 76 287 72 286 73 285 73 282 51384 48868 77 293 82 288 78 288 81 288 76 287 48868 46607 87 292 87 289 84 286 89 288 87 287 46607 44557 94 288 88 288 89 286 95 286 98 284 44557 42692 94 286 88 287 95 286 100 284 107 280 42692 40981 94 288 91 286 99 284 104 281 106 275 40981 39406 99 289 95 286 101 282 106 280 99 278 39406 37953 105 288 98 284 103 283 114 284 116 287 37953 36613 111 286 100 283 108 285 134 289 140 286 36613 35334 115 286 104 285 116 287 153 291 141 279 35334 34039 118 286 113 286 124 286 155 291 141 278 34039 32700 119 286 118 285 127 282 134 285 135 281 32700 31323 117 286 117 283 126 281 124 277 129 280 31323 29898 113 287 113 281 124 281 117 277 125 277 29898 28416 109 287 110 280 119 283 110 277 123 275 28416 26875 103 287 107 279 113 282 109 276 118 274 26875 25278 98 287 101 280 108 280 110 276 109 273 25278 23633 91 286 92 283 100 281 109 278 98 271 23633 21944 83 285 79 284 82 283 100 283 92 273 21944 20206 74 285 67 283 68 279 80 285 89 279 20206 18412 67 286 58 280 61 272 63 282 77 281 18412 16594 60 288 52 277 55 269 50 274 61 282 16594 14851 53 287 46 277 47 269 42 264 45 281 14851 13270 46 286 39 277 40 270 39 259 34 272 13270 11864 37 284 32 276 32 268 37 256 35 262 11864 10612 30 284 25 275 25 262 37 254 38 260 10612 9493 24 282 19 273 20 257 35 254 38 258 9493 8494 19 280 15 273 17 254 30 255 37 255 8494 7603 16 276 12 274 15 252 23 255 34 253 7603 6811 14 271 11 273 14 250 18 252 30 250 6811 6105 14 265 10 268 14 247 13 248 24 246 6105 5468 16 257 12 258 12*244 11 243 17 240 5468 4900 17 250 14 245 11*244 7 237 11 227 4900 4423 17 241 13 235 10 245 4 232 7 197 4423 4054 15 235 11 228 9 247 2 223 7 157 4054 3799 11 230 8 223 8 247 1 201 8 139 3799 3645 8*224 7*222 8 248 0 126 6*141 3645 3556 5*218 6*221 7 248 1*099 4*147 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography