DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/07 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 35.0 - - 49.4 - - 54.2 - - 51.7 - - 44.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -37 - - 33 - - 108 - - -19 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2447 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 4449 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5850 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 69 - - 2194 - - 1665 - - 4231 - - 1810 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 72 - - 266 - - 0 - - 14 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 8 - - 19 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 158 - - 199 - - 229 - - 237 - - 181 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -4 - - -7 - - -2 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1779 - - -4617 - - -3779 - - -4094 - - -1463 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5335 - - 8174 - - 9630 - - 7651 - - 5020 sfcLCL ODpotential -10823 - - -10739 - - -9061 - - -8819 - - -6875 ODpotential blCL 14379 - - 14296 - - 14911 - - 12376 - - 10432 blCL maxRH 81 - - 90 - - 98 - - 100 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 35.0 - - 49.4 - - 54.2 - - 51.7 - - 44.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.7 - - 26.4 - - 24.6 - - 30.8 - - 35.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 40.2 - - 49.0 - - 53.3 - - 52.3 - - 45.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.7 - - 26.2 - - 24.4 - - 30.7 - - 35.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -37 - - 33 - - 108 - - -19 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2447 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 23 - - 60 - - 92 - - 101 - - 50 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96576 9 072 12 053 16 032 8 034 4 042 96576 89576 16 082 18 078 11 064 8 038 13 072 89576 84084 15 083 12 099 11 067 8 082 13 081 84084 79492 9 099 8 095 11 063 10 092 7 070 79492 75516 9 088 8 110 6 071 10 091 4 073 75516 71981 6 061 5 096 1 311 5 076 7 068 71981 68762 4 263 5 299 4 272 5 311 8 330 68762 65797 5 273 8 262 10 273 10 273 11 303 65797 63045 13 269 16 271 13 272 8 270 12 299 63045 60381 17 267 21 265 12 257 17 279 23 280 60381 57611 18 259 18 266 21 282 24 276 26 266 57611 54727 19 273 26 279 32 269 28 269 28 271 54727 51957 25 277 31 284 35 268 33 272 37 275 51957 49449 30 284 35 282 35 270 40 270 39 271 49449 47183 34 281 30 278 34 265 40 267 39 279 47183 45111 27 275 25 278 36 269 41 275 50 281 45111 43212 28 291 32 285 45 277 56 278 60 269 43212 41474 40 288 44 277 53 267 61 262 59 260 41474 39884 33 284 41 269 46 269 58 281 56 282 39884 38438 62 287 90 297 74 288 87 297 84 292 38438 37113 70 284 105 297 99 289 91 292 82 286 37113 35847 54 282 95 297 91 285 80 287 67 279 35847 34565 45 280 81 295 78 278 71 280 70 272 34565 33241 30 274 64 292 72 274 65 275 69 268 33241 31878 29 273 57 288 69 271 60 269 71 266 31878 30463 45 283 53 283 64 266 58 265 72 265 30463 28984 55 288 51 279 59 260 59 263 72 264 28984 27442 45 290 48 274 55 254 60 262 70 260 27442 25838 31 283 41 268 58 258 62 264 68 254 25838 24177 28 278 33 266 63 271 66 269 68 253 24177 22460 33 275 30 267 59 280 67 275 69 259 22460 20686 36 262 30 267 43 276 62 278 66 270 20686 18852 35 247 29 264 35 261 50 276 55 276 18852 16994 33 247 28 256 31 255 40 267 41 271 16994 15208 30 251 26 248 28 254 36 257 37 259 15208 13579 28 248 25 243 26 249 38 255 39 255 13579 12126 27 241 26 237 27 244 39 257 41 259 12126 10828 28 237 29 233 29 243 41 258 41 267 10828 9667 28 237 32 233 31 245 41 258 42 274 9667 8631 29 238 33 235 33 246 42 256 46 276 8631 7707 29 240 34 237 34 246 42 254 50 272 7707 6888 28 242 34 239 33 243 39 253 50 265 6888 6161 27 242 32 238 29*238 34 250 48 255 6161 5508 24 239 28 234 25*233 30 247 44 247 5508 4928 21 233 23 227 21 229 25 244 37 240 4928 4441 18 224 17 216 19 228 21 241 29 233 4441 4065 14 211 14 207 17 227 18 239 22 228 4065 3806 11 186 11 201 16 227 15 238 15 216 3806 3647 10 166 10*200 14 227 12*238 11*204 3647 3557 7*158 8*199 12 227 9*237 5*181 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography