DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/05 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 31.9 - - 45.5 - - 50.9 - - 52.0 - - 41.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 124 - - 148 - - -3 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1641 - - 2898 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3949 - - 4947 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 5044 - - 6301 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 185 - - 2232 - - 1552 - - 3748 - - 137 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 243 - - 311 - - 10 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 19 - - 48 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 183 - - 220 - - 356 - - 125 - - 156 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -5 - - -11 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -81 - - -987 - - -2740 - - -5785 - - -4024 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3637 - - 6031 - - 9041 - - 9342 - - 7580 sfcLCL ODpotential -6363 - - -3300 - - -7878 - - -10932 - - -13116 ODpotential blCL 9919 - - 8344 - - 14179 - - 14489 - - 16672 blCL maxRH 86 - - 71 - - 86 - - 79 - - 66 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 31.9 - - 45.5 - - 50.9 - - 52.0 - - 41.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.7 - - 31.7 - - 23.9 - - 23.8 - - 21.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.2 - - 44.4 - - 49.6 - - 52.4 - - 45.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.4 - - 31.7 - - 23.9 - - 23.7 - - 21.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 124 - - 148 - - -3 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1641 - - 2898 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 44 - - 0 - - 45 - - 17 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96039 24 330 18 327 29 310 22 325 29 334 96039 89254 17 341 13 008 12 335 15 002 15 350 89254 83927 11 341 9 018 10 025 12 016 10 019 83927 79431 8 348 9 022 8 034 10 353 8 353 79431 75505 11 339 9 002 10 015 2 298 5 315 75505 71993 6 330 7 337 9 350 6 305 12 316 71993 68796 14 336 11 351 11 353 6 318 10 321 68796 65843 13 316 14 322 14 314 6 345 15 339 65843 63097 14 332 9 318 15 300 16 307 25 322 63097 60442 23 301 15 308 18 295 19 304 23 321 60442 57662 26 289 22 291 22 292 21 311 25 324 57662 54765 24 285 29 281 26 294 24 310 29 326 54765 52008 26 293 27 282 26 298 31 315 35 321 52008 49540 32 299 25 297 31 308 38 315 32 323 49540 47329 38 291 33 300 35 310 37 316 35 331 47329 45319 37 282 35 298 32 312 32 324 36 330 45319 43480 32 286 33 296 30 322 37 330 42 334 43480 41795 32 294 29 301 38 331 41 333 49 334 41795 40248 31 300 29 313 47 330 51 338 49 340 40248 38810 32 307 36 316 49 331 56 346 54 350 38810 37463 35 307 38 306 53 336 70 353 60 353 37463 36167 32 309 31 298 58 341 83 350 65 356 36167 34859 33 324 25 314 64 346 85 350 73 355 34859 33509 46 331 43 330 70 351 85 351 80 351 33509 32120 51 326 50 328 68 350 83 352 83 348 32120 30680 48 329 49 328 56 341 75 353 75 350 30680 29176 54 334 46 326 44 330 66 356 67 350 29176 27613 59 338 46 322 38 320 58 351 73 354 27613 25990 59 343 45 319 37 312 56 344 68 000 25990 24308 53 339 42 318 35 314 52 341 54 004 24308 22566 50 333 36 321 30 314 46 337 41 001 22566 20767 45 335 32 317 30 311 39 330 31 359 20767 18910 41 339 31 314 31 304 30 324 23 355 18910 17033 39 340 31 318 27 294 25 323 18 334 17033 15232 36 345 29 325 23 292 22 319 19 318 15232 13595 32 346 26 329 22 299 19 311 18 312 13595 12139 30 339 23 332 22 305 17 307 16 311 12139 10840 28 333 20 335 20 306 16 306 14 307 10840 9681 23 328 14 334 17 304 15 301 13 300 9681 8647 16 324 9 327 13 298 12 289 11 285 8647 7726 13 314 8 320 9 283 10 256 11 252 7726 6909 9 296 9 316 4*272 9 223 11 237 6909 6181 5 266 9 310 3*272 8 208 10 232 6181 5524 2 247 4*286 1 326 6 176 10 222 5524 4938 1 315 3*229 1 358 5 151 10 206 4938 4446 1 344 3 222 1 021 5 140 10 189 4446 4067 2 259 2 216 2 025 5 135 10 176 4067 3806 3 235 2 215 2 029 4 131 9 163 3806 3647 3*194 2 213 2 032 4*128 8 155 3647 3556 3*183 2 214 2 034 3*125 6*156 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography