DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/18 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0949z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1557z - - 1853z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.9 - - 59.6 - - 67.7 - - 69.8 - - 60.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 296 - - 381 - - 149 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2949 - - 5055 - - 5857 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 5279 - - 6997 - - 7128 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 6352 - - 8458 - - 9260 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 330 - - 1346 - - 1635 - - 2560 - - 2052 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 395 - - 515 - - 395 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 55 - - 41 - - 17 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 194 - - 078 - - 063 - - 024 - - 013 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -7 - - -4 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -522 - - -669 - - -1184 - - -634 - - -4819 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4079 - - 7021 - - 9642 - - 9894 - - 8377 sfcLCL ODpotential -3898 - - -3357 - - -3352 - - -1663 - - -8811 ODpotential blCL 7455 - - 9709 - - 11810 - - 10923 - - 12369 blCL maxRH 88 - - 77 - - 77 - - 81 - - 71 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.9 - - 59.6 - - 67.7 - - 69.8 - - 60.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.4 - - 41.1 - - 37.6 - - 38.6 - - 36.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.2 - - 57.5 - - 65.3 - - 68.5 - - 63.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.3 - - 41.0 - - 37.5 - - 38.6 - - 36.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 296 - - 381 - - 149 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 2949 - - 5055 - - 5857 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 51 - - 6 - - 8 - - 24 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98564 8 079 6 023 5 063 4 019 2 170 98564 91275 8 068 2 209 3 068 5 098 4 124 91275 85622 8 124 8 125 5 146 3 085 9 090 85622 80911 10 115 13 130 9 155 2 231 7 082 80911 76845 8 095 10 112 8 136 5 204 1 044 76845 73239 4 097 3 102 8 096 8 179 3 266 73239 69952 5 144 6 183 2 113 6 176 2 196 69952 66909 7 161 7 170 5 200 3 205 6 143 66909 64078 7 165 5 182 7 181 4 211 6 170 64078 61332 3 144 5 184 6 174 4 196 2 194 61332 58461 2 359 4 143 3 184 3 161 3 311 58461 55479 3 044 4 096 2 052 5 067 1 338 55479 52636 8 064 8 066 6 040 13 025 8 056 52636 50090 13 051 11 069 9 054 15 016 14 043 50090 47822 18 039 20 054 15 056 16 031 23 042 47822 45770 20 037 23 049 22 051 21 036 31 034 45770 43894 20 048 31 044 29 048 24 042 34 034 43894 42162 25 054 37 043 35 049 30 048 42 039 42162 40552 31 046 42 042 45 048 38 049 53 041 40552 39054 35 049 42 041 54 046 52 046 63 039 39054 37658 41 049 43 045 57 043 60 042 63 039 37658 36325 37 047 41 050 59 039 61 036 62 040 36325 34988 30 053 43 054 50 037 52 034 64 037 34988 33623 26 071 36 059 42 047 38 044 59 035 33623 32233 25 075 31 067 38 044 36 049 44 037 32233 30800 26 089 26 070 34 045 34 051 35 050 30800 29307 27 100 22 073 29 050 29 061 32 056 29307 27751 21 104 23 079 25 056 26 072 29 061 27751 26133 17 095 20 081 20 064 23 072 26 068 26133 24456 18 083 18 078 17 069 20 061 23 070 24456 22725 19 087 19 076 18 073 19 057 23 069 22725 20935 18 095 19 066 17 080 17 066 25 074 20935 19078 14 097 15 065 13 081 14 073 21 083 19078 17193 9 105 11 063 11 070 13 076 15 081 17193 15382 7 110 7 067 10 065 12 078 10 068 15382 13738 7 098 6 084 8 071 7 084 7 050 13738 12276 8 100 6 101 5 082 5 121 1 034 12276 10974 6 100 6 104 4 100 5 125 3 180 10974 9808 3 052 6 098 3 115 4*104 4 170 9808 8762 7 029 6 086 2*101 3*083 1 160 8762 7826 9 019 6 083 2*091 3 071 3 351 7826 6993 8 002 4*084 2 081 4 028 5 353 6993 6249 9 357 2*086 2 073 5 019 8 003 6249 5577 10 351 1 087 2 063 5 015 11 015 5577 4978 10 345 1 080 2 054 5 013 13 022 4978 4475 6 350 1 078 3 050 6 010 14 023 4475 4085 2 357 1 064 3 045 6 008 13 023 4085 3816 1 259 1 066 3 042 6 008 12 021 3816 3652 2*202 1 056 3 042 6 007 9*017 3652 3558 3*194 1 056 2 042 5 008 5*013 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography