DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/06 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.4 - - 43.5 - - 47.4 - - 44.0 - - 37.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -10 - - 28 - - 59 - - -9 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 3191 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 4369 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 6594 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 243 - - 3800 - - 1998 - - 4393 - - 1239 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 68 - - 238 - - 10 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 13 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 203 - - 247 - - 282 - - 309 - - 174 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - 17 - - 2 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -89 - - -1462 - - 435 - - -2078 - - -533 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3646 - - 5019 - - 6160 - - 5635 - - 4089 sfcLCL ODpotential -4433 - - -2451 - - -278 - - -3150 - - -4612 ODpotential blCL 7989 - - 6008 - - 6872 - - 6707 - - 8168 blCL maxRH 89 - - 99 - - 97 - - 94 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 32.4 - - 43.5 - - 47.4 - - 44.0 - - 37.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.0 - - 34.0 - - 32.9 - - 31.9 - - 32.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.0 - - 43.1 - - 46.7 - - 44.6 - - 39.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.8 - - 33.7 - - 32.6 - - 31.8 - - 32.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -10 - - 28 - - 59 - - -9 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 3191 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 57 - - 95 - - 86 - - 77 - - 51 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96586 38 080 32 079 22 070 25 068 23 081 96586 89389 24 069 21 061 14 053 16 046 22 050 89389 83801 23 057 18 058 12 050 17 020 25 045 83801 79136 29 045 19 046 9 027 27 011 25 031 79136 75108 24 017 15 004 15 016 26 024 19 025 75108 71552 21 010 12 004 17 349 22 004 16 001 71552 68324 20 346 14 359 18 343 25 353 21 358 68324 65353 23 335 20 316 31 304 28 324 31 321 65353 62615 24 334 10 335 7 223 12 305 27 306 62615 59968 42 319 19 341 21 359 24 313 25 315 59968 57185 62 304 50 315 37 323 45 314 41 322 57185 54287 64 305 75 307 72 309 64 309 59 308 54287 51538 67 305 85 306 85 308 72 306 69 305 51538 49071 72 305 90 304 89 307 79 307 77 305 49071 46857 79 308 93 305 91 307 85 306 82 306 46857 44850 90 310 97 308 97 307 93 307 90 304 44850 43032 99 309 103 308 103 305 103 306 98 304 43032 41375 102 310 110 307 107 305 110 305 103 305 41375 39844 112 313 117 308 113 308 115 307 106 305 39844 38411 124 311 123 308 120 309 120 308 107 305 38411 37066 119 308 123 309 120 309 117 309 106 306 37066 35775 108 314 117 309 117 307 114 312 104 308 35775 34472 113 321 105 309 112 305 115 311 103 309 34472 33129 120 323 99 309 109 304 112 310 99 310 33129 31748 119 323 98 309 108 306 102 314 96 316 31748 30316 113 323 98 309 107 309 101 319 95 318 30316 28824 103 321 101 312 105 313 98 320 95 317 28824 27274 103 317 106 317 103 316 91 317 95 314 27274 25667 108 315 104 318 100 315 88 311 93 311 25667 24004 103 314 98 317 95 310 88 306 87 309 24004 22289 86 313 93 316 89 307 84 303 77 310 22289 20518 73 312 83 315 78 308 71 307 68 307 20518 18688 69 313 72 312 68 311 57 319 49 305 18688 16835 67 313 64 309 63 313 46 324 33 305 16835 15054 64 313 59 309 59 313 41 320 30 305 15054 13435 58 313 55 311 53 313 39 314 31 307 13435 11997 51 314 50 313 47 313 37 309 30 310 11997 10717 45 316 45 313 40 309 34 305 27 310 10717 9575 40 315 41 309 34 303 31 301 24 309 9575 8556 37 309 37 302 28 298 26 298 22 307 8556 7649 35 301 31 298 22 293 21 295 19 304 7649 6845 29 296 22 296 18*288 15 294 15 298 6845 6130 21 294 16 293 15*284 12 295 10 286 6130 5487 14 293 11 287 14 283 10 298 7 265 5487 4914 10 288 8 278 13 281 9 302 8 252 4914 4432 7 277 7 266 13 281 9 305 9 243 4432 4060 6 261 6 257 12 280 9 308 8 232 4060 3803 5 241 5 251 12 280 8 309 5 212 3803 3646 5*222 5*249 11 280 7*309 4*179 3646 3556 4*203 4*247 9 279 5*309 4*174 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography