DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/15 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 62.4 - - 73.9 - - - - - 54.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 235 - - - - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1393 - - 3740 - - - - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3888 - - 5779 - - - - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4796 - - 7143 - - - - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 965 - - 1652 - - - - - 243 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 246 - - 394 - - - - - 13 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 5 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 14 - - - - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 159 - - 162 - - - - - 139 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 5 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -8 - - - - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5229 - - -7858 - - - - - -7928 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10025 - - 15002 - - - - - 11487 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13607 - - -15286 - - - - - -19270 ODpotential blCL - - - 18403 - - 22429 - - - - - 22828 blCL maxRH - - - 44 - - 51 - - - - - 35 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 62.4 - - 73.9 - - - - - 54.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 31.5 - - 20.7 - - - - - 18.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.0 - - 72.0 - - - - - 59.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 31.4 - - 20.5 - - - - - 18.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 152 - - 235 - - - - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1393 - - 3740 - - - - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 2 - - - - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97693 3 123 1 111 2 059 97693 90415 9 127 4 184 9 054 90415 84781 12 115 8 196 7 044 84781 80135 9 100 10 185 6 320 80135 76155 2 052 2 130 7 256 76155 72639 2 259 4 266 6 269 72639 69451 5 293 5 259 7 294 69451 66519 8 312 5 294 9 273 66519 63798 10 292 12 294 11 294 63798 61163 7 265 8 279 12 280 61163 58432 24 318 21 318 19 303 58432 55619 28 308 21 304 23 284 55619 52941 30 334 23 331 24 312 52941 50525 49 336 43 331 33 314 50525 48357 58 332 51 327 37 316 48357 46390 57 332 51 328 39 317 46390 44586 50 343 47 330 35 317 44586 42912 45 354 37 333 31 317 42912 41347 36 004 32 338 29 316 41347 39878 26 016 24 341 26 306 39878 38498 21 025 15 337 20 290 38498 37168 18 027 11 334 13 271 37168 35823 15 018 9 336 16 264 35823 34436 13 346 11 316 18 271 34436 33013 17 321 18 305 17 269 33013 31543 23 322 21 319 17 262 31543 30013 26 329 22 328 13 261 30013 28420 27 327 23 326 11 270 28420 26763 24 329 21 323 12 278 26763 25043 19 328 18 313 13 278 25043 23264 9 322 14 302 12 268 23264 21416 3 278 11 280 15 263 21416 19495 1 058 10 254 19 266 19495 17542 3 254 9 231 21 253 17542 15667 7 247 10 219 20 223 15667 13967 14 187 16 196 18 203 13967 12457 18 169 19 181 17 201 12457 11108 19 165 20 178 16 206 11108 9903 19 167 19 183 14 216 9903 8826 19 170 17 188 13 221 8826 7867 19 174 15*179 13 215 7867 7016 20 178 14*169 15 199 7016 6260 20 181 14 166 19 182 6260 5581 18 179 14 162 23 170 5581 4977 14*172 14 160 27 162 4977 4471 11*162 14 159 28 157 4471 4082 10 159 14 157 23 155 4082 3814 9 157 13 156 15 152 3814 3651 8 156 12 156 10*146 3651 3558 7 155 11 155 6*139 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography