DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/30 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 63.7 - - 72.5 - - 73.6 - - 61.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 205 - - 305 - - 95 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2106 - - 3761 - - 3612 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4533 - - 5906 - - 5178 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5509 - - 7164 - - 7015 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1179 - - 1910 - - 2548 - - 1498 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 313 - - 433 - - 290 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 133 - - 35 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 0 - - 2 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 043 - - 327 - - 005 - - 013 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - -9 - - -6 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1709 - - -2627 - - -3632 - - -3594 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 7219 - - 9792 - - 10647 - - 7152 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7788 - - -8478 - - -9463 - - -11258 ODpotential blCL - - - 13297 - - 15642 - - 16478 - - 14816 blCL maxRH - - - 72 - - 68 - - 68 - - 69 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 63.7 - - 72.5 - - 73.6 - - 61.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 44.4 - - 41.8 - - 39.3 - - 42.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 62.1 - - 70.3 - - 72.5 - - 64.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 44.4 - - 41.7 - - 39.2 - - 42.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 205 - - 305 - - 95 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2106 - - 3761 - - 3612 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97926 7 290 7 307 14 316 7 290 97926 90690 3 340 5 351 2 347 3 355 90690 85063 6 002 3 022 3 101 3 038 85063 80382 8 357 6 348 6 011 6 037 80382 76352 7 270 14 299 14 313 15 346 76352 72794 5 256 14 279 17 286 19 317 72794 69574 11 282 15 267 20 278 21 294 69574 66603 19 284 17 263 22 268 20 282 66603 63833 25 283 21 270 24 270 21 290 63833 61145 26 281 27 275 30 276 29 283 61145 58356 28 276 31 276 32 278 33 274 58356 55477 33 283 36 284 40 288 34 284 55477 52735 42 285 42 286 47 288 42 287 52735 50265 48 285 47 288 49 289 49 287 50265 48060 49 284 49 289 51 291 53 287 48060 46072 47 286 49 288 52 291 49 288 46072 44260 46 290 45 287 52 288 53 299 44260 42602 47 294 45 290 51 291 57 305 42602 41064 47 294 45 292 53 300 56 306 41064 39615 43 291 47 303 51 309 49 308 39615 38241 41 292 47 309 50 312 45 307 38241 36915 41 292 47 309 50 310 48 302 36915 35577 41 294 47 307 49 309 48 295 35577 34198 41 299 47 307 49 311 47 295 34198 32780 41 303 46 309 50 314 48 300 32780 31309 42 308 46 309 50 316 45 304 31309 29776 42 312 44 307 48 318 40 306 29776 28183 42 312 42 306 44 315 38 308 28183 26532 40 308 40 304 41 308 39 311 26532 24825 38 304 39 301 41 305 37 308 24825 23062 35 303 37 301 40 303 36 302 23062 21235 33 302 37 302 39 300 37 299 21235 19338 31 301 35 302 36 296 35 297 19338 17412 29 300 31 299 29 297 29 294 17412 15561 24 298 25 296 21 298 22 294 15561 13880 20 294 18 292 14 293 16 293 13880 12385 17 290 13 289 9 286 12 290 12385 11055 14 293 10 290 6 278 8 280 11055 9866 11 300 8 292 7 272 7 263 9866 8804 8 303 6 282 6 283 5 268 8804 7858 6 302 3*281 5 325 5 313 7858 7016 4 297 2*291 6*346 6 338 7016 6266 2 292 2 304 7*359 6 001 6266 5589 0*158 2 325 8 003 8 025 5589 4986 0*090 2 332 8 006 12 036 4986 4479 0 057 3 341 8 007 14 037 4479 4088 0 044 3 344 8 007 13 034 4088 3817 1 032 3 345 8 008 11 028 3817 3652 1 028 3 347 8 008 7*021 3652 3558 1 029 3 346 7 009 4*013 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography