DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 03/02 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.2 - - 43.9 - - 48.7 - - 51.3 - - 44.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 57 - - 88 - - 45 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1105 - - 2083 - - 2804 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 4085 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 4508 - - 5486 - - 6207 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 986 - - 1884 - - 2683 - - 3356 - - 4407 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 169 - - 242 - - 212 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 9 - - 20 - - 12 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 236 - - 337 - - 339 - - 326 - - 207 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 2 - - -7 - - -5 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 824 - - 760 - - 581 - - -661 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 3685 - - 4727 - - 5626 - - 4218 sfcLCL ODpotential -1412 - - -37 - - -313 - - -492 - - -2855 ODpotential blCL 4968 - - 4545 - - 5799 - - 6699 - - 6412 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 97 - - 89 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 30 - - 50 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 38.2 - - 43.9 - - 48.7 - - 51.3 - - 44.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.6 - - 40.2 - - 40.4 - - 39.0 - - 38.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 39.3 - - 43.2 - - 47.8 - - 50.6 - - 48.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.1 - - 39.4 - - 39.4 - - 38.4 - - 38.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 57 - - 88 - - 45 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 1105 - - 2083 - - 2804 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 99 - - 80 - - 89 - - 54 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96140 12 288 18 322 12 310 15 304 11 320 96140 89032 11 302 13 299 18 309 21 315 16 314 89032 83570 19 312 20 303 25 305 23 314 20 326 83570 79029 24 313 26 308 30 307 33 311 27 321 79029 75118 32 315 29 304 37 305 34 309 34 314 75118 71662 37 310 32 305 36 295 36 306 32 313 71662 68511 37 302 33 306 35 288 39 297 39 307 68511 65595 39 300 40 303 37 289 46 298 41 293 65595 62863 49 295 42 295 46 297 46 289 37 291 62863 60179 53 288 50 296 53 285 43 296 50 298 60179 57370 53 286 55 292 50 285 61 294 60 290 57370 54462 56 285 55 289 58 288 66 284 52 278 54462 51668 57 288 57 285 57 283 50 283 35 277 51668 49116 57 287 57 286 52 292 43 302 48 303 49116 46816 60 286 59 287 61 297 62 306 74 298 46816 44750 63 284 59 291 67 293 76 296 83 293 44750 42888 57 284 53 298 61 294 67 290 68 295 42888 41203 41 298 47 305 49 296 51 299 53 309 41203 39654 37 303 41 304 41 313 45 312 48 313 39654 38212 30 313 30 314 43 322 39 326 39 315 38212 36863 27 334 26 338 40 322 40 340 37 336 36863 35573 28 347 32 353 31 332 46 335 53 350 35573 34279 24 346 33 355 28 342 41 317 52 356 34279 32951 25 350 30 000 28 345 29 315 39 356 32951 31587 23 009 29 008 29 349 24 325 34 341 31587 30177 23 019 28 013 27 355 23 333 35 324 30177 28715 23 023 26 015 23 354 23 336 31 330 28715 27195 21 023 24 019 21 351 24 339 27 344 27195 25617 18 015 23 026 20 355 22 338 29 355 25617 23984 14 010 21 036 17 001 17 340 28 358 23984 22299 13 016 16 043 14 010 14 348 23 360 22299 20559 14 013 11 029 11 014 12 002 21 009 20559 18753 12 014 8 029 11 006 12 018 19 019 18753 16911 11 015 6 030 11 001 11 033 17 016 16911 15133 11 021 5 024 9 007 9 041 12 020 15133 13514 13 023 4 032 7 013 7 040 8 047 13514 12072 14 026 5 044 5 019 4 046 7 079 12072 10785 13 024 6 032 4 032 1 062 7 099 10785 9636 11 009 7 002 3 019 4 288 6 117 9636 8612 11 349 10 335 4 347 6 299 4 152 8612 7702 13 346 12 325 5 323 5 304 3 196 7702 6894 13 351 13 328 6 320 5*310 3 219 6894 6172 11 354 12 333 6 321 4*317 3 231 6172 5519 7 346 11 336 4*328 3 323 3 240 5519 4937 5 324 9*339 3*337 3 327 3 245 4937 4448 5 293 6*340 2 339 3 329 4 246 4448 4069 7 268 3 335 2 338 3 329 4 242 4069 3807 8 253 3 335 2 340 3 332 4 235 3807 3649 6 244 3 335 2 339 2 329 4*217 3649 3557 4*236 3 337 2 339 2 330 3*207 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography