DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/23 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.7 - - 62.8 - - 71.6 - - 70.4 - - 60.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 215 - - 329 - - 118 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1913 - - 3694 - - 2861 - - 155 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 4412 - - 5881 - - 4796 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 5316 - - 7097 - - 6264 - - 3558 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 104 - - 1415 - - 2510 - - 3426 - - 2325 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 308 - - 441 - - 288 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 24 - - 35 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 11 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 173 - - 026 - - 337 - - 007 - - 354 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 6 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - -10 - - -8 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1653 - - -4116 - - -5046 - - -6093 - - -5793 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5210 - - 9432 - - 12143 - - 12357 - - 9352 sfcLCL ODpotential -9625 - - -9427 - - -9685 - - -11771 - - -12783 ODpotential blCL 13182 - - 14743 - - 16782 - - 18035 - - 16341 blCL maxRH 68 - - 78 - - 82 - - 77 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.7 - - 62.8 - - 71.6 - - 70.4 - - 60.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 36.6 - - 34.1 - - 30.5 - - 28.5 - - 32.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 61.2 - - 69.3 - - 69.2 - - 62.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.5 - - 34.0 - - 30.4 - - 28.5 - - 32.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 215 - - 329 - - 118 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 1913 - - 3694 - - 2861 - - 155 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 13 - - 28 - - 8 - - 15 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98344 15 181 9 251 6 244 12 214 15 233 98344 90985 9 075 3 137 2 234 4 340 5 008 90985 85329 8 036 7 070 6 350 12 018 9 062 85329 80641 10 037 8 041 8 006 9 007 12 039 80641 76592 10 041 3 343 6 351 6 341 10 014 76592 72989 7 348 2 073 7 178 10 255 11 309 72989 69708 8 262 8 279 6 181 12 227 9 276 69708 66669 13 239 13 258 8 258 9 225 12 234 66669 63825 22 248 19 243 22 261 20 266 17 248 63825 61055 26 242 23 228 28 247 27 258 22 258 61055 58161 28 238 25 230 29 241 29 249 26 249 58161 55165 32 246 28 246 31 249 31 254 31 250 55165 52322 39 254 36 250 38 250 39 255 36 246 52322 49789 39 250 37 245 42 247 44 256 41 260 49789 47556 38 253 41 245 45 248 53 248 44 254 47556 45562 37 255 34 251 39 257 45 257 42 265 45562 43767 49 279 62 274 58 265 54 259 50 261 43767 42138 58 270 58 270 63 264 61 256 53 261 42138 40632 46 292 46 268 58 270 60 265 57 262 40632 39215 54 299 57 275 61 271 63 269 55 261 39215 37875 55 295 58 273 60 271 58 265 51 261 37875 36579 44 288 52 274 61 272 52 263 48 260 36579 35265 47 285 52 273 59 273 50 261 47 259 35265 33904 52 280 49 273 55 272 50 258 47 258 33904 32503 51 275 47 276 52 272 49 259 48 256 32503 31048 49 275 46 278 48 272 48 261 51 254 31048 29529 47 278 45 277 42 270 48 260 52 255 29529 27949 41 279 45 272 43 262 48 260 49 258 27949 26309 31 276 46 271 45 259 46 262 46 259 26309 24612 28 281 42 268 43 257 43 264 43 258 24612 22863 28 278 39 262 41 258 41 263 38 259 22863 21055 31 269 38 257 39 261 43 259 30 262 21055 19178 31 266 34 254 36 258 42 255 33 262 19178 17273 26 261 28 248 33 249 37 251 36 256 17273 15443 22 253 24 240 30 242 35 248 33 246 15443 13784 20 246 22 235 26 237 33 241 30 237 13784 12310 17 242 20 232 23 236 24 228 27 228 12310 10995 14 237 19 228 21 236 17 223 21 214 10995 9818 12 233 16 227 18 232 13 228 14 210 9818 8764 11 230 14 229 14 229 8 238 8 217 8764 7824 9 233 11 231 8*231 4 267 2 237 7824 6987 7 237 8 231 3*246 5*348 4 000 6987 6243 5 240 5 229 2 279 7*000 9 003 6243 5572 3 231 1*228 2 346 11 007 12 007 5572 4974 2 181 2*033 3 352 11 007 13 015 4974 4472 3 152 2 029 3 357 12 007 13 018 4472 4084 4 166 2 027 4 357 12 007 12 015 4084 3815 5 185 3 023 4 001 12 007 10 011 3815 3652 5*177 3 022 4 001 11 007 7*004 3652 3558 3*173 3 021 3 360 10 007 4*354 3558 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography