DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/22 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 38.9 - - 41.8 - - 38.0 - - 32.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 13 - - 48 - - -8 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 153 - - 2203 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3539 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3556 - - 5606 - - 3556 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3296 - - 2605 - - 3904 - - 2008 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 58 - - 208 - - 17 - - 21 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 19 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 242 - - 244 - - 271 - - 106 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 14 - - -1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1150 - - 622 - - -854 - - -403 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4706 - - 4985 - - 4410 - - 3960 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2412 - - -920 - - -2470 - - -3533 ODpotential blCL - - - 5968 - - 6526 - - 6026 - - 7089 blCL maxRH - - - 91 - - 85 - - 69 - - 77 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 38.9 - - 41.8 - - 38.0 - - 32.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 30.7 - - 32.3 - - 31.2 - - 28.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 38.7 - - 41.1 - - 39.5 - - 35.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 29.6 - - 31.1 - - 29.9 - - 27.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 13 - - 48 - - -8 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 153 - - 2203 - - 153 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 63 - - 39 - - 0 - - 7 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96019 28 348 19 352 17 344 11 349 96019 88940 13 005 12 325 19 334 11 333 88940 83418 17 310 15 323 23 321 19 304 83418 78856 22 326 19 322 15 340 9 352 78856 74893 29 311 32 297 23 318 24 304 74893 71377 28 255 31 267 32 279 37 273 71377 68212 28 279 18 262 19 259 28 246 68212 65272 37 279 17 292 13 312 14 235 65272 62484 49 269 36 278 28 281 30 275 62484 59742 56 258 56 264 56 267 56 270 59742 56887 61 255 64 256 70 257 67 260 56887 53936 67 256 69 256 73 257 68 255 53936 51130 73 255 73 254 76 257 70 254 51130 48615 78 251 78 252 79 254 73 251 48615 46366 80 249 80 251 80 251 74 248 46366 44328 81 250 82 252 80 251 77 250 44328 42466 84 252 84 252 83 252 83 250 42466 40755 90 252 90 252 88 253 90 247 40755 39175 96 251 96 249 92 251 93 245 39175 37706 99 251 96 246 94 248 91 245 37706 36339 100 252 97 247 96 247 93 249 36339 35047 109 253 111 251 107 248 109 253 35047 33764 125 253 126 251 125 250 128 253 33764 32448 133 249 130 248 136 250 131 250 32448 31093 129 247 124 245 129 247 128 249 31093 29686 124 248 118 245 118 244 124 250 29686 28222 116 249 115 246 112 244 116 249 28222 26708 105 251 111 248 109 245 108 248 26708 25139 96 251 104 248 99 247 101 248 25139 23519 87 250 91 247 85 247 91 249 23519 21857 83 252 79 248 73 246 77 249 21857 20147 79 254 73 250 68 247 67 249 20147 18377 73 253 72 251 67 249 63 247 18377 16575 67 252 71 249 68 249 64 245 16575 14836 62 251 68 246 68 246 63 244 14836 13254 57 248 63 245 64 243 57 244 13254 11848 54 244 57 244 57 241 51 244 11848 10596 50 241 53 243 51 240 46 246 10596 9478 43 238 48 241 45 242 43 248 9478 8479 38 238 42 241 42 245 41 251 8479 7589 33 240 38 242 41 248 40 252 7589 6800 29 242 33 242 39 249 39 252 6800 6097 24 244 29*243 38 250 37 251 6097 5463 20 244 25*243 35 250 33 250 5463 4898 15 244 21 244 32 250 28 249 4898 4423 11 244 19 245 27 252 20 248 4423 4055 8 243 17 245 20 254 10 243 4055 3800 7 243 15 246 14 257 3 200 3800 3645 6 242 14 246 9 260 5*116 3645 3556 5*242 11 246 3*271 5*106 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography