DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/21 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 39.2 - - 40.5 - - - - - 38.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 20 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 153 - - 153 - - - - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3540 - - 3540 - - - - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3556 - - 3556 - - - - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1760 - - 2030 - - - - - 740 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 40 - - 64 - - - - - 0 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 3 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 4 - - - - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 199 - - 190 - - - - - 243 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -3 - - - - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3556 - - 3556 - - - - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1022 - - -579 - - - - - -2575 ODpotential blCL - - - 4578 - - 4135 - - - - - 6132 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 97 - - - - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 39.2 - - 40.5 - - - - - 38.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 37.3 - - 38.2 - - - - - 36.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 39.1 - - 40.2 - - - - - 42.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 36.8 - - 37.4 - - - - - 37.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 20 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 153 - - 153 - - - - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 92 - - 87 - - - - - 69 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 5 - - - - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96249 20 003 12 357 21 008 96249 89155 18 336 23 335 21 325 89155 83619 26 326 21 318 19 313 83619 78995 35 313 24 294 28 311 78995 75027 32 299 29 280 31 298 75027 71527 26 279 30 278 21 283 71527 68328 31 285 37 282 20 291 68328 65353 48 284 51 275 36 285 65353 62585 56 277 57 263 54 271 62585 59905 58 271 59 259 65 261 59905 57090 62 266 63 264 70 251 57090 54143 71 264 69 263 73 248 54143 51319 77 259 74 260 76 250 51319 48783 74 255 79 260 77 254 48783 46514 76 261 84 259 81 257 46514 44456 86 265 87 257 87 256 44456 42578 94 263 91 257 92 254 42578 40853 98 260 95 258 94 253 40853 39257 106 257 99 257 97 254 39257 37777 115 254 107 254 102 254 37777 36401 127 254 119 251 108 253 36401 35097 131 254 127 252 119 252 35097 33797 123 252 130 251 132 251 33797 32467 116 250 126 250 138 249 32467 31105 108 248 121 249 137 248 31105 29696 101 248 116 248 128 248 29696 28235 99 248 111 245 117 248 28235 26722 99 249 104 245 109 246 26722 25158 93 252 97 245 104 246 25158 23543 86 252 94 244 97 248 23543 21881 86 248 94 245 90 248 21881 20170 81 250 88 248 81 247 20170 18404 68 254 77 250 72 246 18404 16615 60 260 71 253 66 245 16615 14895 52 261 59 259 64 245 14895 13327 45 257 45 261 64 245 13327 11926 42 254 40 260 64 248 11926 10673 37 253 37 259 63 251 10673 9550 30 253 34 259 61 254 9550 8546 25 255 31 258 57 255 8546 7648 22 258 28 254 53 255 7648 6850 21 262 26 250 49 254 6850 6138 21 262 22 245 43 252 6138 5495 20 259 17 238 38 250 5495 4920 18 253 13 229 33 247 4920 4436 13 246 9 215 27 247 4436 4062 8 237 6 198 20 247 4062 3804 5 216 5 193 14 247 3804 3647 4 204 5 192 9*245 3647 3557 3*199 4*190 4*243 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography