DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/15 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.5 - - 55.4 - - 61.1 - - 55.5 - - 49.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -24 - - 18 - - 135 - - -26 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 155 - - 2233 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 4435 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3557 - - 3558 - - 5636 - - 3558 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 856 - - 2275 - - 1837 - - 3274 - - 1550 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 59 - - 278 - - 20 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 12 - - 36 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 198 - - 226 - - 252 - - 255 - - 240 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 27 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -5 - - 34 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3207 - - -2110 - - -283 - - -842 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6764 - - 5668 - - 5919 - - 4400 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -11070 - - -5659 - - -2067 - - -2788 - - -2931 ODpotential blCL 14627 - - 9217 - - 7703 - - 6346 - - 6488 blCL maxRH 99 - - 94 - - 81 - - 87 - - 90 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 20 - - 40 - - 60 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 47.5 - - 55.4 - - 61.1 - - 55.5 - - 49.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.8 - - 42.9 - - 47.4 - - 48.5 - - 46.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.5 - - 55.2 - - 60.2 - - 57.2 - - 53.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.7 - - 43.0 - - 47.3 - - 47.9 - - 46.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -24 - - 18 - - 135 - - -26 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 154 - - 155 - - 2233 - - 155 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 96 - - 75 - - 26 - - 48 - - 60 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96581 44 033 31 029 31 035 30 023 27 014 96581 89651 24 017 24 012 23 025 22 019 21 349 89651 84276 15 037 20 028 11 003 23 348 22 341 84276 79727 10 081 12 033 11 334 17 338 13 326 79727 75713 4 263 7 020 4 350 8 327 12 294 75713 72140 4 282 9 303 12 298 16 319 10 302 72140 68920 10 299 13 273 10 289 14 318 17 338 68920 65970 5 281 7 271 20 282 26 303 21 290 65970 63253 16 283 20 287 27 271 26 280 16 280 63253 60605 24 275 20 283 19 266 13 244 36 282 60605 57825 25 283 21 276 4 145 30 276 51 267 57825 54946 34 282 39 271 28 272 53 280 56 270 54946 52191 41 275 51 273 63 277 75 280 66 281 52191 49697 47 274 57 275 86 277 86 274 82 284 49697 47453 59 278 68 276 90 271 82 273 90 282 47453 45406 65 276 73 272 85 274 80 277 88 283 45406 43523 64 275 73 271 89 279 90 280 87 286 43523 41779 67 281 74 274 93 275 97 280 95 288 41779 40156 75 282 76 273 89 267 98 278 104 286 40156 38648 86 277 78 270 82 262 96 275 106 280 38648 37251 84 274 81 270 77 263 94 272 103 278 37251 35931 71 272 81 267 75 266 94 271 97 277 35931 34618 65 267 76 262 74 267 93 274 95 281 34618 33277 55 264 71 254 71 267 90 276 93 284 33277 31909 56 263 70 250 67 263 87 274 92 284 31909 30498 57 265 70 251 66 259 84 272 90 280 30498 29030 57 268 72 257 67 256 86 270 88 273 29030 27501 57 268 73 264 66 256 85 269 85 268 27501 25908 57 266 66 269 63 260 79 269 86 268 25908 24257 52 268 57 269 60 266 73 268 85 268 24257 22552 48 277 49 269 58 271 68 267 81 269 22552 20787 52 285 45 270 55 272 63 267 77 271 20787 18954 52 289 44 274 52 270 59 267 74 273 18954 17091 47 289 44 277 49 268 56 267 66 275 17091 15299 41 285 45 279 47 270 55 267 57 270 15299 13667 41 279 46 277 47 273 55 266 55 259 13667 12211 45 273 49 272 49 275 56 264 57 256 12211 10907 48 267 52 268 52 275 57 263 57 260 10907 9740 51 263 55 266 54 272 56 265 54 263 9740 8698 53 261 57 265 56 269 54 267 46 264 8698 7769 55 260 57 263 56 265 50 267 38 263 7769 6944 55 258 54 260 55 262 46 266 35 261 6944 6210 52 254 50 256 51*259 43 264 33 259 6210 5547 47 247 43 251 46*256 39 262 31 257 5547 4956 39 239 34 246 41 253 34 260 29 253 4956 4459 31 231 27 240 37 251 28 258 25 250 4459 4076 23 226 21 235 33 250 23 257 20 249 4076 3811 17 219 17 230 30 250 18 257 14 250 3811 3650 12*212 14*227 26 249 14*256 10 249 3650 3557 6*198 12*226 19 249 8*255 4*240 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography