DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/31 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.2 - - 49.6 - - 60.1 - - 57.3 - - 44.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -34 - - 11 - - 109 - - -11 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2114 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3540 - - 4224 - - 3541 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5517 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 88 - - 790 - - 2068 - - 4089 - - 155 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 53 - - 255 - - 21 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 6 - - 12 - - 5 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 159 - - 237 - - 231 - - 174 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -5 - - -2 - - -2 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3292 - - -4695 - - -7147 - - -8374 - - -4703 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6848 - - 8252 - - 12665 - - 11931 - - 8260 sfcLCL ODpotential -13182 - - -11775 - - -13251 - - -14405 - - -12415 ODpotential blCL 16738 - - 15332 - - 18768 - - 17962 - - 15972 blCL maxRH 79 - - 79 - - 86 - - 81 - - 85 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 37.2 - - 49.6 - - 60.1 - - 57.3 - - 44.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.5 - - 26.4 - - 17.1 - - 17.6 - - 21.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.7 - - 49.5 - - 59.0 - - 57.8 - - 48.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.7 - - 25.4 - - 16.5 - - 17.2 - - 20.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -34 - - 11 - - 109 - - -11 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2114 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 17 - - 17 - - 44 - - 25 - - 42 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 94785 55 313 79 292 74 314 65 301 69 298 94785 88199 47 324 51 305 55 318 54 309 50 317 88199 82977 44 311 42 322 43 314 52 312 39 326 82977 78550 36 306 35 314 36 308 46 311 37 316 78550 74710 30 328 23 321 26 297 33 304 35 299 74710 71304 31 330 19 341 17 294 21 306 29 293 71304 68198 34 316 27 326 21 304 23 320 22 310 68198 65316 38 298 32 310 28 297 28 307 26 298 65316 62629 41 294 35 309 32 291 32 287 30 278 62629 60032 45 298 44 297 43 287 31 298 25 280 60032 57315 50 287 53 278 49 270 36 290 26 281 57315 54475 44 292 40 277 42 264 41 275 31 270 54475 51743 57 303 51 298 43 283 44 271 31 267 51743 49268 61 299 65 294 54 289 45 281 37 274 49268 47043 63 294 69 287 65 281 60 274 54 270 47043 45027 61 284 62 275 65 267 66 263 60 259 45027 43189 57 281 56 272 60 263 64 258 56 255 43189 41510 63 280 60 267 65 265 66 259 58 259 41510 39973 73 272 65 264 70 261 75 254 67 256 39973 38555 70 264 53 267 70 253 78 247 74 248 38555 37231 69 258 53 270 67 254 72 246 77 243 37231 35955 69 263 53 272 74 258 70 247 76 245 35955 34662 72 266 52 272 78 261 73 251 75 247 34662 33323 65 269 53 269 79 262 78 253 73 246 33323 31943 60 271 56 268 77 260 78 253 75 242 31943 30510 62 272 64 264 77 259 78 252 80 241 30510 29016 68 273 75 260 78 259 78 251 81 241 29016 27464 75 274 77 260 76 260 75 252 79 241 27464 25854 75 275 70 262 71 260 68 250 75 240 25854 24193 72 276 63 264 64 257 61 246 73 237 24193 22482 71 275 57 263 60 252 62 243 73 237 22482 20714 61 268 53 260 54 251 63 246 72 240 20714 18881 51 258 51 256 50 252 58 251 62 244 18881 17021 46 254 48 254 44 252 47 251 46 242 17021 15233 38 251 40 250 38 245 38 244 36 232 15233 13606 31 239 32 237 33 237 35 236 35 226 13606 12157 28 230 29 223 30 233 34 235 32 227 12157 10863 24 224 26 219 29 234 33 236 30 233 10863 9706 19 218 23 219 28 236 31 239 26 239 9706 8670 15 212 21 220 27 239 28 242 23 243 8670 7746 12 207 20 219 25 240 25 243 20 244 7746 6924 11 206 19 218 22 236 22 240 17 242 6924 6193 12 210 20 215 18 231 18 233 14 238 6193 5532 13 213 19 211 15*231 15 226 12 229 5532 4945 14 212 19 208 13*233 13 223 12 218 4945 4451 15 207 16 202 12 236 11 224 12 208 4451 4070 16 196 13 189 12 238 10 226 13 193 4070 3807 14 182 10 173 11 239 9 229 13 181 3807 3648 11 169 8*163 10 241 7 231 10*175 3648 3557 7*162 6*159 9 241 5*231 7*174 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography