DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/04 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.2 - - 51.9 - - 55.8 - - 53.9 - - 50.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -16 - - 54 - - 30 - - -22 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2134 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 - - 3541 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3557 - - 5537 - - 3557 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 179 - - 2799 - - 3757 - - 3640 - - 1024 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 84 - - 170 - - 28 - - 20 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 7 - - 14 - - 8 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 187 - - 174 - - 188 - - 156 - - 161 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -4 - - -6 - - -5 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -391 - - -3344 - - -645 - - -1156 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3948 - - 6901 - - 6182 - - 4713 - - 3557 sfcLCL ODpotential -6531 - - -6416 - - -1598 - - -3140 - - -2020 ODpotential blCL 10087 - - 9973 - - 7135 - - 6697 - - 5577 blCL maxRH 80 - - 92 - - 99 - - 96 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 37.2 - - 51.9 - - 55.8 - - 53.9 - - 50.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 32.5 - - 34.1 - - 40.9 - - 45.4 - - 48.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.3 - - 51.2 - - 55.4 - - 55.0 - - 51.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 34.7 - - 33.9 - - 40.7 - - 44.9 - - 48.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -16 - - 54 - - 30 - - -22 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 154 - - 2134 - - 154 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 20 - - 70 - - 97 - - 86 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96767 8 074 13 092 8 072 9 046 4 034 96767 89633 7 020 3 189 7 331 4 028 3 359 89633 84095 10 003 3 147 8 275 8 306 5 295 84095 79476 12 313 9 285 11 290 14 309 15 276 79476 75479 19 283 13 269 18 252 16 271 14 259 75479 71918 9 243 8 226 13 260 12 282 19 280 71918 68676 16 261 24 265 27 275 28 276 30 271 68676 65697 30 242 35 241 39 252 36 264 31 267 65697 62919 28 252 29 242 38 242 41 257 36 260 62919 60223 36 275 33 262 38 253 40 256 37 255 60223 57419 45 274 42 262 40 260 40 263 38 257 57419 54516 50 270 45 264 43 264 49 259 47 256 54516 51759 57 266 54 268 51 261 53 259 53 256 51759 49292 61 263 63 262 60 264 58 262 54 260 49292 47091 61 263 64 258 65 259 69 259 58 254 47091 45100 60 266 64 258 64 255 70 249 63 245 45100 43282 69 268 72 260 68 257 64 249 71 251 43282 41620 76 266 75 260 74 260 81 255 88 248 41620 40096 79 265 75 263 82 258 92 248 89 242 40096 38681 82 267 85 264 86 257 95 245 83 238 38681 37352 85 268 88 261 86 256 93 249 77 238 37352 36071 83 263 84 259 83 256 90 254 71 236 36071 34773 82 254 82 257 80 257 81 254 70 237 34773 33430 85 256 78 257 77 258 68 254 67 240 33430 32045 82 260 71 256 73 258 66 256 62 238 32045 30606 77 262 70 254 67 254 67 257 58 234 30606 29105 74 263 69 257 64 251 63 254 55 231 29105 27544 68 262 66 260 63 254 56 252 48 229 27544 25924 56 262 65 259 58 261 47 251 47 226 25924 24247 45 266 67 257 51 260 43 247 48 226 24247 22518 39 270 66 255 49 253 45 245 49 227 22518 20733 37 271 58 250 53 248 47 247 49 228 20733 18887 35 270 41 243 54 245 49 247 49 230 18887 17015 34 270 29 245 51 245 49 243 49 232 17015 15219 32 271 27 254 41 246 44 243 48 232 15219 13586 28 268 26 255 31 248 35 248 47 231 13586 12134 24 264 26 250 26 247 26 254 46 229 12134 10841 21 260 28 246 26 239 21 248 45 226 10841 9686 21 259 29 244 25 226 20 239 44 223 9686 8656 22 259 28 243 24 221 20 235 45 218 8656 7737 23 258 27 241 22 215 21 227 47 213 7737 6921 23 257 25 238 20 209 21 216 46 209 6921 6194 23 256 21 232 18*205 22 204 42 206 6194 5536 21 255 18 224 17*198 22 194 37 203 5536 4949 19 252 14 212 15 190 22 186 32 196 4949 4455 16 247 11 197 14 186 21 180 27 186 4455 4073 13 237 9 181 13 185 18 172 22 175 4073 3810 10 222 9 177 13 183 15 165 17 167 3810 3649 7 197 8 175 12 183 12 161 13*165 3649 3557 6*187 7*174 10 182 8*156 7*161 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography