DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/01 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 66.1 - - 65.8 - - 64.4 - - 63.3 - - 62.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 0 - - -20 - - -20 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 44 - - 44 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 2144 - - 2144 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2066 - - 3556 - - 2963 - - 2857 - - 1926 Hgt.Variab. W* 20 - - 34 - - 29 - - 24 - - 19 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 15 - - 12 - - 7 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 223 - - 238 - - 185 - - 226 - - 168 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -5 - - -8 - - -7 - - -5 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -251 - - -166 - - -387 - - -159 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2144 - - 2395 - - 2310 - - 2531 - - 2303 sfcLCL ODpotential -1273 - - -1142 - - -1358 - - -1755 - - -1979 ODpotential blCL 3417 - - 3286 - - 3502 - - 3899 - - 4123 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 90 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 260 - - 90 - - 150 - - 20 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 66.1 - - 65.8 - - 64.4 - - 63.3 - - 62.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 64.0 - - 62.2 - - 61.2 - - 59.2 - - 59.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.6 - - 65.8 - - 65.0 - - 64.1 - - 63.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.7 - - 61.5 - - 60.6 - - 58.4 - - 58.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 0 - - -20 - - -20 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 44 - - 44 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 101 - - 101 - - 60 - - 99 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 13 - - 12 - - 11 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97039 60 285 58 282 57 276 64 271 67 273 97039 89886 36 284 40 280 47 283 38 288 37 289 89886 84398 23 285 17 287 23 287 25 300 23 303 84398 79839 11 309 16 301 11 262 12 317 16 321 79839 75918 8 344 12 313 3 239 6 348 13 356 75918 72431 6 333 5 330 7 307 5 334 12 359 72431 69254 11 285 1 050 7 351 7 026 9 333 69254 66331 26 280 10 263 14 281 9 335 7 358 66331 63609 28 266 16 248 21 265 18 265 9 339 63609 60961 18 259 10 238 8 215 18 275 13 279 60961 58232 18 274 23 265 19 277 19 268 25 268 58232 55459 43 261 49 266 27 276 29 270 37 264 55459 52837 65 248 54 260 51 288 22 281 31 244 52837 50466 73 245 58 255 63 294 30 315 12 256 50466 48317 84 246 73 252 72 292 45 289 18 279 48317 46346 101 245 88 247 69 283 60 270 41 281 46346 44527 100 244 98 243 63 278 72 263 57 277 44527 42838 98 244 101 241 66 277 73 262 64 270 42838 41253 97 243 100 240 71 276 69 265 69 265 41253 39756 99 242 101 239 75 274 67 266 75 262 39756 38337 101 241 106 240 77 272 67 265 79 259 38337 36963 99 241 110 239 75 271 68 264 77 256 36963 35566 95 240 105 238 71 268 69 262 74 257 35566 34120 91 238 92 237 71 262 70 259 74 261 34120 32633 89 237 86 235 81 254 73 256 75 262 32633 31091 88 235 89 232 95 247 76 253 75 259 31091 29484 86 234 95 229 95 244 74 252 71 257 29484 27815 83 234 99 228 86 243 65 250 60 260 27815 26086 80 235 96 229 85 239 60 249 54 264 26086 24303 76 231 86 229 88 234 59 250 50 262 24303 22467 70 227 79 229 92 228 52 253 43 258 22467 20563 69 225 75 228 89 223 47 254 39 263 20563 18581 68 226 72 226 73 213 47 253 43 273 18581 16557 61 227 72 224 61 205 48 252 44 273 16557 14605 55 228 67 217 51 218 47 253 45 269 14605 12835 48 228 54 211 57 246 45 254 44 262 12835 11266 45 229 47 215 75 254 43 251 39 253 11266 9869 44 230 42 220 79 258 42 246 40 251 9869 8624 42 229 39 226 66 259 41 243 39 246 8624 7515 42 225 40 235 52 253 38 245 40 245 7515 6531 42 220 41 241 45 241 36 246 39 240 6531 5662 41 217 42 241 40 228 36 242 38 235 5662 4891 38 215 41 240 36 217 35 238 36 230 4891 4200 36 216 39 238 33 210 31 234 32 226 4200 3586 33 219 36 238 30 205 27 231 27 223 3586 3072 27 220 32 238 26 198 22 231 21 217 3072 2677 21 222 27 239 23 192 19 231 16 206 2677 2404 16 224 24 238 19 188 15 230 11 186 2404 2239 13 225 21 238 16*187 12*229 8*174 2239 2144 8*223 15*238 12*185 7*226 6*168 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography