DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 07/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.0 - - 91.9 - - 97.1 - - 95.8 - - 77.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 370 - - 326 - - 212 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4669 - - 7963 - - 6388 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2129 - - 5369 - - 7933 - - 6434 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2145 - - 6769 - - 10063 - - 8488 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 737 - - 2637 - - 3367 - - 3170 - - 1986 Hgt.Variab. W* 23 - - 492 - - 569 - - 453 - - 23 W* B/S 1 - - 66 - - 59 - - 21 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 141 - - 035 - - 293 - - 321 - - 139 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 2 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -2 - - 9 - - 3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1030 - - -1925 - - 133 - - -1425 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3176 - - 8695 - - 9930 - - 9913 - - 2145 sfcLCL ODpotential -5669 - - -3371 - - -719 - - -2413 - - -1652 ODpotential blCL 7814 - - 10140 - - 10782 - - 10901 - - 3797 blCL maxRH 100 - - 93 - - 88 - - 84 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 1080 - - 500 - - 900 - - 600 - - 2730 CAPE Temp@2m 77.0 - - 91.9 - - 97.1 - - 95.8 - - 77.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 69.7 - - 60.9 - - 60.6 - - 59.4 - - 74.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.4 - - 89.5 - - 94.8 - - 94.0 - - 77.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 68.7 - - 60.7 - - 59.9 - - 59.3 - - 73.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 370 - - 326 - - 212 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 45 - - 4669 - - 7963 - - 6388 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 72 - - 53 - - 35 - - 95 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 12 - - 11 - - 12 - - 20 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99049 48 099 52 104 50 119 33 126 39 091 99049 91608 50 103 45 104 44 109 37 103 35 097 91608 85850 40 102 38 111 44 107 35 099 40 097 85850 81050 33 097 36 106 40 106 36 117 39 101 81050 76940 31 091 34 098 32 102 36 116 34 105 76940 73343 31 098 32 102 26 109 29 099 31 112 73343 70099 29 107 30 110 24 118 23 086 28 105 70099 67120 29 113 30 111 28 119 22 099 25 094 67120 64374 23 113 31 112 28 113 20 125 19 096 64374 61728 19 102 28 116 23 113 20 126 15 101 61728 58986 16 090 22 115 21 127 17 117 13 095 58986 56172 10 089 15 104 23 120 17 122 11 109 56172 53506 2 114 12 100 18 102 19 110 14 117 53506 51105 5 145 8 120 13 100 13 085 14 097 51105 48942 12 125 10 142 10 118 6 068 10 076 48942 46966 14 107 14 121 11 111 7 081 9 071 46966 45146 15 085 13 097 12 094 9 067 9 072 45146 43457 10 067 9 067 10 063 9 034 11 059 43457 41876 7 066 9 058 8 017 12 007 17 054 41876 40386 1 045 12 050 12 022 13 037 19 058 40386 38976 5 023 15 044 20 034 18 048 17 056 38976 37611 11 359 17 034 21 027 17 040 14 049 37611 36223 12 359 18 021 19 036 15 043 14 051 36223 34783 8 018 18 022 19 046 16 046 10 045 34783 33296 7 040 16 032 19 043 16 045 10 050 33296 31748 9 054 13 038 15 032 15 043 7 041 31748 30125 12 060 12 040 9 019 10 035 3 010 30125 28432 10 057 11 039 7 024 6 018 3 350 28432 26671 8 077 11 043 8 039 5 047 5 023 26671 24843 10 101 10 045 9 054 6 075 3 007 24843 22952 11 104 9 072 7 085 5 101 3 319 22952 20992 10 088 8 107 5 123 5 094 5 313 20992 18960 4 046 1 073 4 150 3 090 5 311 18960 16899 8 288 9 278 7 249 4 287 7 301 16899 14920 10 271 12 281 7 258 5 292 8 307 14920 13123 11 278 7 308 2 259 2 302 5 282 13123 11526 5 259 2 127 1 212 5 218 5 237 11526 10100 3 172 4 100 1*217 5 204 4 209 10100 8827 2 157 5 072 1*235 4*208 3 156 8827 7689 2 212 5*052 1 254 3*219 6 142 7689 6675 4 268 4*047 1 277 2 252 9 154 6675 5778 2 324 2 051 2 292 3 305 12 166 5778 4982 3 060 2 045 2 296 5 324 14 173 4982 4268 6 092 1 031 2 301 5 330 14 172 4268 3634 8 120 1 015 3 305 6 333 12 166 3634 3104 11 142 1 347 3 304 7 335 12 159 3104 2696 10 155 1 334 3 306 7 337 11 151 2696 2415 8 152 1 335 3 307 7 337 9 144 2415 2243 5 146 1 328 3 309 7 338 7*141 2243 2145 3*141 1 331 3 308 6 339 5*139 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography