DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.1 - - 62.6 - - 71.2 - - 65.4 - - 55.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 112 - - 146 - - -20 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 730 - - 2186 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 3116 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 2830 - - 4286 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 72 - - 840 - - 2187 - - 2105 - - 252 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 178 - - 279 - - 7 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 20 - - 17 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 196 - - 121 - - 021 - - 352 - - 332 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - -4 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3300 - - -6295 - - -7228 - - -8208 - - -5586 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5442 - - 9125 - - 11515 - - 10352 - - 7730 sfcLCL ODpotential -15891 - - -14852 - - -14253 - - -16501 - - -16182 ODpotential blCL 18033 - - 17682 - - 18539 - - 18645 - - 18325 blCL maxRH 37 - - 33 - - 33 - - 23 - - 28 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.1 - - 62.6 - - 71.2 - - 65.4 - - 55.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.6 - - 30.7 - - 28.4 - - 28.1 - - 29.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.7 - - 61.6 - - 69.9 - - 67.3 - - 60.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.3 - - 30.4 - - 28.2 - - 27.8 - - 29.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 112 - - 146 - - -20 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 730 - - 2186 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96331 6 206 17 273 17 250 24 268 29 278 96331 89139 6 281 12 243 23 250 24 288 20 317 89139 83566 14 265 7 253 12 262 22 274 25 319 83566 78953 22 278 13 278 10 281 17 280 21 310 78953 75001 27 278 19 290 18 285 19 313 24 303 75001 71539 25 283 25 296 23 287 18 311 26 303 71539 68436 33 301 30 293 29 299 22 292 32 306 68436 65599 33 291 33 285 34 297 28 295 31 296 65599 62969 20 281 28 277 30 293 29 293 32 294 62969 60427 16 313 24 278 28 275 32 289 35 289 60427 57780 38 304 26 284 30 263 35 279 35 283 57780 55019 48 293 33 289 32 277 38 274 43 288 55019 52366 50 283 42 282 42 279 46 278 50 285 52366 49968 47 275 46 273 48 269 47 273 51 277 49968 47809 45 292 44 277 47 269 46 268 50 273 47809 45841 50 304 45 284 47 280 46 279 50 276 45841 44034 46 304 47 291 51 288 51 285 52 283 44034 42360 41 309 46 298 48 294 47 286 52 281 42360 40796 44 318 47 311 44 307 41 295 43 286 40796 39333 47 323 47 320 44 317 38 308 37 303 39333 37962 44 330 46 326 42 321 38 316 38 318 37962 36642 41 337 46 334 43 326 40 321 41 327 36642 35305 39 338 46 341 48 332 45 324 44 333 35305 33922 38 339 44 343 51 336 48 327 46 333 33922 32497 39 341 43 344 48 338 44 327 45 330 32497 31016 40 343 44 345 44 341 41 326 42 326 31016 29465 40 342 44 344 42 343 37 324 37 325 29465 27842 36 334 42 341 40 342 34 324 34 323 27842 26145 34 325 40 344 39 343 35 326 31 320 26145 24377 32 323 36 347 37 344 35 327 31 323 24377 22543 30 328 34 348 33 347 30 327 31 325 22543 20634 31 338 31 342 30 357 25 331 27 326 20634 18642 33 345 28 339 28 358 22 337 21 330 18642 16607 36 350 28 346 25 352 19 348 17 344 16607 14645 36 351 28 349 24 350 19 358 18 357 14645 12860 32 350 28 347 23 352 19 008 20 010 12860 11275 27 349 25 352 21 354 17 017 18 022 11275 9868 23 351 22 001 18 004 14 025 14 038 9868 8616 20 360 18 015 13 016 10 037 9 049 8616 7505 16 013 11 039 6 048 6 051 5 047 7505 6519 13 037 10 066 6 093 4 069 3 043 6519 5649 13 060 11 076 6 108 5 065 4 060 5649 4878 14 069 11 087 5*106 6 049 5 044 4878 4187 12 069 9 099 2*073 7 028 8 029 4187 3575 9 061 6 115 3 022 9 005 11 022 3575 3063 6 048 3*125 3 017 11 357 13 014 3063 2670 3 064 2*125 3 012 11 354 13 006 2670 2401 2 153 2 123 4 012 10 353 11 001 2401 2237 3 183 1 117 4 009 8*353 5 354 2237 2143 4*196 1 118 3 010 5*352 2*332 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography