DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 09/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 94.2 - - 99.4 - - 99.2 - - 91.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 309 - - 346 - - 107 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3916 - - 7243 - - 7659 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4719 - - 7377 - - 6910 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 6016 - - 9343 - - 9759 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3116 - - 3456 - - 3153 - - 4742 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 438 - - 558 - - 386 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 18 - - 16 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 6 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 340 - - 307 - - 322 - - 335 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - -3 - - -3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4381 - - -2602 - - -2651 - - -8661 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10398 - - 11945 - - 12410 - - 10807 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6767 - - -3769 - - -4313 - - -12181 ODpotential blCL - - - 12783 - - 13112 - - 14072 - - 14327 blCL maxRH - - - 88 - - 85 - - 85 - - 85 maxRH CAPE - - - 30 - - 40 - - 0 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 94.2 - - 99.4 - - 99.2 - - 91.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 55.9 - - 54.0 - - 51.9 - - 51.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 92.0 - - 97.0 - - 98.0 - - 93.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 55.5 - - 53.7 - - 51.6 - - 51.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 309 - - 346 - - 107 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3916 - - 7243 - - 7659 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 54 - - 40 - - 41 - - 42 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98729 26 116 28 118 19 113 24 083 98729 91317 26 097 25 105 21 107 20 091 91317 85605 26 097 22 108 19 102 20 096 85605 80855 20 088 14 091 13 080 19 088 80855 76750 17 091 11 086 11 057 17 074 76750 73129 13 085 9 081 11 063 11 056 73129 69879 15 087 7 114 10 073 9 048 69879 66914 15 058 14 115 7 100 7 049 66914 64182 3 019 8 106 7 101 9 106 64182 61549 8 167 4 108 4 118 6 106 61549 58847 4 164 2 181 6 161 5 276 58847 56098 5 189 10 193 9 227 13 271 56098 53490 7 196 14 203 16 211 18 228 53490 51130 11 205 16 223 22 203 24 212 51130 48999 16 221 21 236 21 223 24 214 48999 47048 18 230 23 249 23 239 24 230 47048 45242 29 288 26 268 26 256 25 249 45242 43557 37 292 26 266 26 256 24 255 43557 41971 26 280 23 260 26 249 25 254 41971 40473 22 262 25 256 26 245 25 252 40473 39058 25 253 28 251 25 248 23 250 39058 37690 26 245 29 241 26 243 22 241 37690 36299 26 239 30 233 27 231 24 222 36299 34857 25 235 30 228 28 231 26 214 34857 33366 26 231 31 219 29 230 24 218 33366 31812 30 224 31 216 28 227 24 221 31812 30185 31 218 26 225 24 220 24 218 30185 28491 25 216 21 234 19 219 22 213 28491 26735 18 221 16 222 16 213 20 207 26735 24916 12 229 15 207 16 209 17 202 24916 23034 12 205 18 198 17 218 15 204 23034 21083 13 189 17 194 16 205 13 208 21083 19058 13 181 15 189 15 197 14 211 19058 16998 13 171 17 170 15 187 15 202 16998 15018 12 168 15 172 15 184 14 180 15018 13218 11 172 13 192 13 188 12 166 13218 11611 6 185 10 201 7 210 8 178 11611 10179 3 267 5*236 5*287 3 226 10179 8899 3 001 6*291 6*299 4 302 8899 7755 6 010 6 298 7 310 7 323 7755 6736 6*001 6 302 8 316 10 331 6736 5831 5*347 7 305 9 321 12 334 5831 5028 5 342 7 309 10 324 14 336 5028 4304 4 340 7 312 10 327 16 337 4304 3661 4 338 7 315 10 328 17 336 3661 3122 4 338 7 316 10 330 17 336 3122 2706 4 339 6 319 10 331 17 337 2706 2420 4 339 6 319 10 331 14 337 2420 2245 4 340 6 319 10 331 11*336 2245 2146 3 341 6 320 9 331 5*335 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography