DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 04/25 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 82.0 - - 85.2 - - 83.3 - - 76.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 454 - - 139 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5815 - - 7805 - - 6898 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6336 - - 7954 - - 6535 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 7915 - - 9905 - - 8998 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1924 - - 2031 - - 2929 - - 6186 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 558 - - 624 - - 403 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 18 - - 19 - - 10 BL Wind Direction - - - 237 - - 250 - - 249 - - 242 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 9 - - -8 - - -9 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -7284 - - -4584 - - -4037 - - -9271 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 15200 - - 14490 - - 13035 - - 11416 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11682 - - -7435 - - -6519 - - -12745 ODpotential blCL - - - 19597 - - 17340 - - 15517 - - 14889 blCL maxRH - - - 78 - - 83 - - 89 - - 89 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 82.0 - - 85.2 - - 83.3 - - 76.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 21.8 - - 28.1 - - 33.0 - - 33.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 79.3 - - 82.6 - - 82.3 - - 77.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 21.9 - - 28.1 - - 33.0 - - 33.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 436 - - 454 - - 139 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 5815 - - 7805 - - 6898 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 13 - - 31 - - 57 - - 58 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97545 11 278 14 263 23 272 35 288 97545 90157 25 278 25 295 27 292 22 295 90157 84481 24 274 28 294 22 310 15 305 84481 79768 13 270 20 284 17 301 17 301 79768 75717 9 296 10 285 12 299 15 295 75717 72165 11 299 10 305 11 313 12 295 72165 68958 12 289 12 269 10 288 6 294 68958 66017 9 290 7 258 9 260 10 247 66017 63294 25 271 19 264 15 271 9 253 63294 60638 35 259 37 259 34 268 26 264 60638 57861 38 262 42 254 44 253 41 251 57861 54981 42 266 45 256 45 255 46 251 54981 52230 49 270 52 265 54 266 52 259 52230 49753 62 274 68 270 70 272 66 268 49753 47536 82 271 86 269 94 270 91 268 47536 45531 97 268 99 267 103 265 107 264 45531 43701 105 267 106 264 104 262 111 260 43701 42016 111 267 110 262 105 261 110 258 42016 40452 112 266 111 260 110 259 108 257 40452 38992 111 265 111 259 111 256 108 256 38992 37620 109 266 109 259 109 255 108 256 37620 36297 106 265 108 259 107 255 105 255 36297 34957 100 264 106 259 106 255 103 255 34957 33571 94 264 100 261 105 256 100 254 33571 32145 88 265 88 261 99 258 94 254 32145 30664 78 266 79 261 90 258 86 255 30664 29117 70 266 74 263 83 256 79 255 29117 27502 66 267 71 264 79 255 77 255 27502 25820 63 266 71 263 76 259 76 254 25820 24075 60 263 72 259 68 262 74 256 24075 22270 55 260 66 257 63 260 68 258 22270 20400 50 259 57 257 56 257 59 260 20400 18454 44 257 48 258 46 257 49 259 18454 16470 38 255 40 255 39 257 43 257 16470 14559 33 254 32 247 33 253 37 254 14559 12819 29 252 26 241 27 245 29 251 12819 11268 25 244 21*240 22 237 24 245 11268 9884 21 234 19*242 19*239 20 238 9884 8647 16*228 19 244 19*242 19 232 8647 7544 14*228 19 247 19 244 18 231 7544 6562 14 230 19 249 19 246 19 235 6562 5692 14 234 19 251 20 249 21 238 5692 4918 14 237 19 252 20 250 22 240 4918 4222 13 240 19 254 20 251 23 241 4222 3604 13 242 19 255 19 252 23 242 3604 3085 13 245 18 256 19 253 22 242 3085 2685 12 246 18 256 19 253 20 243 2685 2409 12 247 17 257 18 254 17 242 2409 2241 12 248 16 257 17 254 15 242 2241 2144 10 248 14 257 14 254 10*242 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography