DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 09/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 87.4 - - 95.1 - - 95.4 - - 85.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 30 - - 259 - - 41 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1628 - - 6452 - - 5503 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2129 - - 6610 - - 4280 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3728 - - 8552 - - 7603 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4665 - - 2838 - - 4826 - - 483 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 191 - - 490 - - 257 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 15 - - 12 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 166 - - 215 - - 282 - - 002 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 10 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -7 - - -17 - - -6 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2265 - - -1713 - - -3500 - - -6508 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5993 - - 10266 - - 11103 - - 8654 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5883 - - -4274 - - -6051 - - -9951 ODpotential blCL - - - 9611 - - 12826 - - 13654 - - 12097 blCL maxRH - - - 51 - - 56 - - 59 - - 68 maxRH CAPE - - - 2280 - - 930 - - 720 - - 530 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 87.4 - - 95.1 - - 95.4 - - 85.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 68.2 - - 57.2 - - 54.0 - - 55.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 87.0 - - 93.1 - - 94.9 - - 89.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 66.8 - - 56.7 - - 53.6 - - 54.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 30 - - 259 - - 41 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1628 - - 6452 - - 5503 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 13 - - 10 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98564 22 102 17 112 10 108 19 071 98564 91184 29 100 21 096 19 075 20 072 91184 85518 25 106 25 085 30 071 28 085 85518 80827 22 096 23 083 28 072 26 076 80827 76762 26 096 23 093 19 081 26 063 76762 73164 25 089 23 088 21 094 24 068 73164 69932 17 078 23 077 24 085 22 081 69932 66978 14 079 15 076 19 075 17 084 66978 64246 17 081 9 097 13 092 13 089 64246 61607 19 065 6 124 6 064 11 056 61607 58858 10 002 1 041 8 350 10 019 58858 56023 9 286 12 291 17 306 18 311 56023 53345 19 267 21 272 17 274 22 276 53345 50941 28 279 21 278 15 272 19 277 50941 48775 35 278 26 283 24 287 23 291 48775 46795 33 275 28 278 29 284 25 287 46795 44963 30 267 29 274 29 280 27 282 44963 43252 29 257 29 266 31 279 29 279 43252 41647 29 247 30 257 32 274 30 277 41647 40137 29 236 32 250 32 266 29 274 40137 38712 30 229 33 242 32 258 29 272 38712 37337 31 227 33 235 32 250 28 269 37337 35946 31 228 33 227 34 243 28 261 35946 34512 32 230 34 221 35 237 29 251 34512 33042 31 230 32 224 35 232 31 243 33042 31522 28 235 28 231 30 234 28 240 31522 29938 26 243 23 240 23 244 23 245 29938 28290 25 255 19 251 20 253 20 254 28290 26577 26 276 20 268 21 262 21 259 26577 24798 26 285 24 276 23 268 22 255 24798 22951 23 286 24 272 21 265 21 248 22951 21025 19 279 24 259 21 258 21 246 21025 19017 12 272 19 248 21 259 22 247 19017 16971 10 244 16 238 18 252 22 248 16971 15000 11 224 15 237 18 240 21 242 15000 13204 13 219 16 227 18 219 18 218 13204 11604 15 217 18 215 17 212 16 202 11604 10176 15 215 17 208 15 215 13 226 10176 8898 14 214 14*207 12 223 11 245 8898 7754 12 214 12*207 9*231 10 262 7754 6734 10 211 9 208 7*244 10 272 6734 5830 9 205 7 210 5 261 9 282 5830 5026 8 195 5 216 4 278 7 290 5026 4302 8*180 4 222 4 292 6 301 4302 3659 8*170 4 227 4 302 5 317 3659 3121 7 166 3 232 4 307 5 334 3121 2705 6 165 3 236 4 310 4 352 2705 2419 5 164 3 238 4 311 4 007 2419 2245 5 164 3 238 4 314 3*013 2245 2146 4 163 2 237 3 315 2*002 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography