DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/20 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.9 - - 73.3 - - 81.0 - - 74.2 - - 64.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -35 - - 85 - - 137 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 674 - - 3837 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2128 - - 4266 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2774 - - 5937 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 81 - - 1106 - - 1883 - - 4398 - - 204 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 158 - - 331 - - 6 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 9 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 168 - - 159 - - 264 - - 333 - - 179 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -1 - - 4 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4664 - - -9347 - - -8141 - - -10661 - - -8311 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6807 - - 12121 - - 14078 - - 12806 - - 10456 sfcLCL ODpotential -16665 - - -16404 - - -13821 - - -17625 - - -17289 ODpotential blCL 18808 - - 19178 - - 19758 - - 19769 - - 19433 blCL maxRH 33 - - 44 - - 50 - - 30 - - 35 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 50.9 - - 73.3 - - 81.0 - - 74.2 - - 64.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.6 - - 28.1 - - 26.6 - - 26.0 - - 27.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.2 - - 72.4 - - 79.8 - - 77.3 - - 69.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.5 - - 27.8 - - 26.2 - - 25.6 - - 26.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -35 - - 85 - - 137 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 674 - - 3837 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96506 19 281 29 275 35 251 43 272 48 282 96506 89282 27 278 29 278 27 271 26 270 33 278 89282 83737 24 258 30 267 27 289 21 288 21 273 83737 79135 14 259 22 265 22 282 20 288 19 292 79135 75193 23 290 19 257 25 276 26 288 20 292 75193 71754 19 276 14 269 20 296 19 305 16 298 71754 68671 11 312 11 286 12 323 11 323 9 287 68671 65851 18 349 20 316 19 341 11 005 9 345 65851 63242 23 341 17 310 19 311 15 330 12 298 63242 60713 23 348 16 308 25 297 25 311 28 313 60713 58067 17 315 25 319 32 304 30 298 33 298 58067 55305 41 321 43 317 38 302 39 301 41 298 55305 52642 51 302 52 308 51 303 50 304 46 302 52642 50218 47 291 58 297 58 298 61 300 53 301 50218 48031 46 298 59 293 58 291 66 295 59 296 48031 46038 50 306 56 294 55 291 64 290 57 291 46038 44205 53 307 52 294 52 291 56 288 51 293 44205 42510 56 306 51 294 50 290 52 290 51 301 42510 40935 53 302 50 292 47 294 47 290 52 304 40935 39468 43 299 40 285 42 293 40 289 44 295 39468 38097 32 294 31 275 37 280 37 285 37 287 38097 36780 27 287 28 268 33 270 34 282 32 277 36780 35445 26 288 26 262 33 261 33 283 27 276 35445 34060 23 292 24 261 33 261 33 283 22 277 34060 32628 21 293 22 263 34 268 33 286 20 285 32628 31137 27 295 27 275 35 280 33 291 22 299 31137 29575 34 294 33 285 37 290 34 295 26 306 29575 27943 38 293 36 289 38 294 36 297 31 306 27943 26240 42 293 37 291 38 296 37 296 34 303 26240 24467 43 294 38 292 38 298 37 295 35 301 24467 22626 42 296 37 294 37 299 35 294 34 299 22626 20712 42 297 36 295 36 298 34 294 33 297 20712 18722 40 298 34 298 33 293 31 291 30 293 18722 16693 36 295 31 299 29 290 29 286 28 289 16693 14736 34 289 30 294 27 290 28 285 26 292 14736 12953 34 286 30 289 27 290 27 289 23 293 12953 11365 30 287 27 282 25 286 23 290 20 293 11365 9953 26 288 23 271 22 278 19 282 16 291 9953 8695 22 287 20 266 20 268 17 266 14 279 8695 7575 18 284 16 263 17 258 16 252 13 263 7575 6581 15 273 12 258 13*252 13 245 14 250 6581 5701 12 259 11 263 11*255 11 253 14 250 5701 4922 13 254 13 262 10 258 9 267 13 265 4922 4221 13 243 13 254 9 263 8 281 12 276 4221 3600 11 219 11 244 8 266 8 294 9 285 3600 3080 10 182 6*217 8 270 8 306 3 326 3080 2681 12 168 4*163 7 273 8 315 5 058 2681 2406 14 161 4 159 7 275 7 323 6 075 2406 2239 10*161 3 156 7 276 6 330 3*104 2239 2144 6*168 3 155 6 277 4*333 2*179 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography