DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1557z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 75.4 - - 86.7 - - 92.9 - - 90.7 - - 81.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 53 - - 385 - - 399 - - 102 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 354 - - 6281 - - 8538 - - 6490 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 6654 - - 8484 - - 5981 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2454 - - 8381 - - 10638 - - 8590 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1678 - - 1283 - - 1427 - - 3198 - - 3373 Hgt.Variab. W* 109 - - 549 - - 616 - - 357 - - 6 W* B/S 5 - - 9 - - 10 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 11 - - 11 - - 12 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 171 - - 205 - - 220 - - 242 - - 275 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 7 - - 10 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 8 - - 14 - - 8 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6816 - - -1660 - - -2583 - - -3476 - - -7534 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9271 - - 10041 - - 13222 - - 12066 - - 9679 sfcLCL ODpotential -16376 - - -7260 - - -8583 - - -9135 - - -14932 ODpotential blCL 18830 - - 15641 - - 19221 - - 17725 - - 17077 blCL maxRH 65 - - 55 - - 50 - - 61 - - 55 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 75.4 - - 86.7 - - 92.9 - - 90.7 - - 81.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 42.4 - - 49.8 - - 41.7 - - 44.8 - - 46.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 74.8 - - 84.1 - - 90.3 - - 89.7 - - 82.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 42.5 - - 49.7 - - 41.7 - - 44.8 - - 46.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 53 - - 385 - - 399 - - 102 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 354 - - 6281 - - 8538 - - 6490 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 8 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98449 25 101 25 103 21 104 22 085 20 101 98449 91089 21 096 23 105 20 111 26 084 27 089 91089 85416 19 113 20 097 21 114 19 089 25 082 85416 80711 21 100 21 101 28 107 20 114 16 089 80711 76656 22 107 21 105 26 095 23 119 15 114 76656 73070 18 111 17 122 20 080 23 108 18 124 73070 69822 20 108 14 126 14 095 21 095 20 097 69822 66841 14 095 13 124 8 138 10 102 15 068 66841 64083 8 014 6 142 9 164 6 180 4 013 64083 61437 6 290 6 223 7 229 5 175 5 124 61437 58709 12 268 11 232 13 240 13 223 10 215 58709 55917 30 259 27 247 29 249 26 246 24 227 55917 53286 43 253 42 250 39 250 35 251 30 246 53286 50915 49 250 48 247 46 246 47 243 46 246 50915 48776 55 253 57 250 54 243 60 243 57 244 48776 46822 66 252 65 249 64 243 67 243 65 246 46822 45014 74 249 69 249 72 244 71 241 69 245 45014 43325 78 251 71 251 72 248 71 242 71 243 43325 41734 78 253 73 252 73 252 71 247 74 243 41734 40231 77 252 74 250 74 251 73 250 76 244 40231 38808 75 252 73 248 73 249 73 249 78 245 38808 37432 73 254 72 249 72 248 72 246 77 245 37432 36036 69 255 69 252 70 250 71 246 76 243 36036 34594 65 256 63 253 66 251 68 249 75 245 34594 33107 62 253 58 249 60 246 64 248 70 247 33107 31565 60 252 59 248 58 243 62 243 67 245 31565 29957 59 254 58 250 58 247 61 244 65 243 29957 28283 52 251 56 251 56 250 60 250 62 243 28283 26536 43 242 50 248 56 254 56 253 58 249 26536 24718 37 240 45 242 51 252 53 253 54 252 24718 22830 34 243 40 236 46 247 48 251 48 250 22830 20874 30 246 35 233 40 242 41 250 40 247 20874 18846 26 247 31 232 36 237 34 247 32 243 18846 16791 25 240 29 230 32 231 30 235 29 233 16791 14821 25 227 28 223 30 219 27 219 27 222 14821 13035 24 220 27 216 26 204 24 197 26 213 13035 11447 21 213 24 207 18*194 17 180 23 190 11447 10035 19 208 21 200 14*198 14 187 21 164 10035 8776 19 208 16*199 13 200 13*193 17 165 8776 7650 20 208 14*199 12 209 11*213 14 177 7650 6647 19 205 13 201 11 217 12 229 10 197 6647 5758 17 199 12 203 11 224 12 238 9 226 5758 4968 14 190 11 205 11 229 13 244 11 254 4968 4258 12 175 10 207 11 233 13 248 14 267 4258 3628 10 157 10 209 11 237 13 250 17 272 3628 3100 9 150 9 210 11 240 13 252 18 274 3100 2694 7*156 8 211 10 241 13 253 17 275 2694 2413 5*166 8 211 10 242 13 253 15 276 2413 2243 4 174 8 212 10 242 12 254 11 276 2243 2145 3 175 7 213 9 243 11 254 6*275 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography