DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/31 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.3 - - 68.5 - - 76.9 - - 76.1 - - 62.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -26 - - 158 - - 211 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1404 - - 4413 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2603 - - 4922 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3504 - - 6513 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 94 - - 1062 - - 1490 - - 5891 - - 183 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 248 - - 399 - - 6 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 16 - - 7 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 190 - - 134 - - 085 - - 004 - - 024 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6793 - - -9691 - - -8813 - - -12827 - - -9338 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8937 - - 13196 - - 15327 - - 14972 - - 11482 sfcLCL ODpotential -19551 - - -17405 - - -14944 - - -18844 - - -18194 ODpotential blCL 21694 - - 20909 - - 21457 - - 20989 - - 20338 blCL maxRH 28 - - 28 - - 25 - - 22 - - 24 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.3 - - 68.5 - - 76.9 - - 76.1 - - 62.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 16.2 - - 18.6 - - 17.0 - - 17.9 - - 20.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 51.5 - - 67.3 - - 75.3 - - 76.4 - - 67.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 15.9 - - 18.3 - - 16.7 - - 17.4 - - 20.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -26 - - 158 - - 211 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1404 - - 4413 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96014 49 261 45 276 48 269 53 274 42 256 96014 88849 31 269 40 266 46 268 48 278 36 309 88849 83407 28 290 26 283 35 270 41 274 40 308 83407 78867 26 314 19 289 26 280 29 280 36 286 78867 74953 30 325 20 316 18 312 16 306 24 279 74953 71502 28 308 24 324 17 327 15 334 18 299 71502 68388 24 298 24 326 20 322 18 332 18 314 68388 65552 27 306 23 312 24 318 21 322 19 322 65552 62947 32 306 25 287 31 310 27 318 23 332 62947 60428 34 304 29 282 40 298 38 313 31 321 60428 57790 42 307 38 296 45 290 42 308 30 309 57790 55027 53 308 46 311 41 300 37 310 28 312 55027 52362 55 301 47 313 45 303 42 301 37 310 52362 49943 54 294 46 298 46 295 47 291 40 300 49943 47755 51 290 47 289 48 293 48 296 42 302 47755 45757 46 291 46 289 45 292 49 294 43 300 45757 43927 44 294 44 293 41 289 43 280 43 292 43927 42252 42 288 40 294 37 296 34 276 39 281 42252 40706 38 283 38 282 34 292 30 290 32 283 40706 39258 20 301 28 272 29 272 28 281 28 295 39258 37893 18 314 20 280 24 274 26 275 28 291 37893 36577 20 307 20 280 19 297 20 284 24 278 36577 35247 20 302 20 269 19 304 19 311 13 289 35247 33871 19 290 19 269 18 291 21 319 11 317 33871 32449 18 297 17 284 19 288 21 314 11 315 32449 30966 18 307 16 285 18 292 21 315 11 313 30966 29413 17 308 17 322 16 326 21 329 10 325 29413 27791 18 308 17 337 16 333 19 335 9 353 27791 26100 20 334 15 357 14 343 17 344 13 014 26100 24340 20 000 21 005 17 004 18 006 14 034 24340 22512 23 015 22 016 18 022 19 022 17 048 22512 20610 25 016 23 019 19 030 19 030 20 052 20610 18630 25 018 25 028 23 038 19 037 22 050 18630 16612 24 019 29 038 24 046 21 047 21 050 16612 14664 23 021 30 046 23 057 21 054 19 055 14664 12889 24 027 28 054 22 067 20 064 19 063 12889 11308 21 036 25 056 20 073 20 073 20 072 11308 9905 17 046 21 054 19 068 18 079 20 073 9905 8656 15 052 18 062 17 069 15 088 19 072 8656 7544 14 055 14 073 14 085 12 089 15 072 7544 6557 12 063 12 084 11*091 9 083 10 078 6557 5684 10 081 12 101 10*090 7 074 8 083 5684 4909 11 105 16 117 8 088 5 059 8 081 4909 4212 15 121 22 127 8 087 5 039 9 080 4212 3594 19 126 21*130 7 085 4 025 10 078 3594 3077 24 125 17*133 6 083 4 016 11 073 3077 2678 20 134 17 134 6 081 4 010 11 065 2678 2404 16 149 16 134 6 080 4 007 9 055 2404 2238 10*163 14 135 5 078 4*005 6*039 2238 2144 6*190 11 135 5 077 3*004 3*024 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography