DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 57.7 - - 69.3 - - 74.8 - - 69.5 - - 62.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 111 - - 186 - - -7 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1601 - - 4768 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2511 - - 5137 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 3701 - - 6868 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 167 - - 2982 - - 3401 - - 6133 - - 426 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 232 - - 396 - - 16 - - 5 W* B/S 1 - - 21 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 5 - - 7 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 235 - - 288 - - 293 - - 014 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 4 - - 12 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1562 - - -2068 - - -463 - - -4119 - - -3220 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3706 - - 5769 - - 7332 - - 6263 - - 5364 sfcLCL ODpotential -5956 - - -3666 - - -1272 - - -5376 - - -6443 ODpotential blCL 8100 - - 7367 - - 8140 - - 7520 - - 8587 blCL maxRH 92 - - 95 - - 89 - - 92 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 130 - - 250 - - 540 - - 380 - - 170 CAPE Temp@2m 57.7 - - 69.3 - - 74.8 - - 69.5 - - 62.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 48.9 - - 51.4 - - 50.0 - - 49.4 - - 46.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.9 - - 68.4 - - 73.3 - - 69.7 - - 65.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 48.6 - - 51.0 - - 49.5 - - 49.1 - - 45.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 111 - - 186 - - -7 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 1601 - - 4768 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 69 - - 80 - - 56 - - 69 - - 52 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96757 69 277 68 272 69 263 71 270 74 272 96757 89518 43 275 50 277 49 279 42 282 42 275 89518 83993 26 263 39 278 32 285 27 291 25 283 83993 79437 15 272 28 270 25 281 29 279 27 294 79437 75515 16 297 15 264 18 273 22 278 28 293 75515 72039 18 306 10 305 12 274 18 299 22 301 72039 68874 19 312 15 299 12 293 17 306 18 308 68874 65961 17 309 15 291 16 291 18 302 20 311 65961 63265 16 315 15 301 15 301 15 305 20 309 63265 60656 16 302 14 291 14 303 12 310 20 311 60656 57926 19 289 16 292 18 283 18 303 21 321 57926 55081 29 277 24 293 24 287 25 287 25 314 55081 52359 35 275 30 281 28 298 23 283 25 309 52359 49903 39 280 33 274 32 287 27 294 31 312 49903 47693 45 278 33 278 33 281 30 283 35 301 47693 45674 50 275 36 282 34 278 26 275 34 289 45674 43815 56 272 41 279 34 272 23 277 30 282 43815 42091 62 270 46 275 35 269 27 292 24 286 42091 40484 65 270 52 270 36 272 29 297 20 298 40484 38983 67 268 54 267 38 277 29 303 15 312 38983 37574 68 266 59 267 45 277 31 299 19 321 37574 36221 72 264 61 263 55 269 33 291 22 312 36221 34853 78 265 62 259 58 262 34 279 23 296 34853 33443 82 264 67 260 55 259 35 268 24 284 33443 31994 80 261 70 261 50 256 37 263 24 273 31994 30496 73 256 72 259 47 258 35 257 24 262 30496 28943 65 256 65 254 50 254 34 251 23 253 28943 27338 57 257 53 251 53 248 34 243 24 249 27338 25677 52 255 44 247 47 244 28 239 25 239 25677 23959 42 251 37 247 41 247 24 238 23 227 23959 22177 32 253 30 253 33 247 23 241 18 219 22177 20322 30 259 27 252 30 243 23 245 14 215 20322 18387 29 254 23 251 24 238 21 244 13 210 18387 16411 26 246 22 249 19 241 17 245 12 197 16411 14503 19 236 21 239 17 235 12 242 12 189 14503 12764 15 220 19 218 18 215 15 216 16 184 12764 11215 16 216 18 204 18 199 18 192 19 172 11215 9835 16 208 17 197 20 193 15 195 17 155 9835 8604 15 203 16 193 16 198 9 213 8 135 8604 7505 14 198 14 192 10*215 6 250 5 096 7505 6527 13 196 12 197 7*236 5 273 3 041 6527 5660 12 195 10 206 6 261 5 315 4 013 5660 4892 10 194 9 216 5 287 6 345 7 014 4892 4200 8 194 6*223 5 301 8 002 10 013 4200 3587 7 195 3*241 6 312 9 008 12 013 3587 3073 6 202 2 277 6 318 10 010 12 015 3073 2677 5 211 2 303 6 322 10 011 11 022 2677 2404 6 218 2 319 6 324 10 013 9 031 2404 2238 5*226 2 323 6 324 9 014 5*040 2238 2144 3*235 2 327 6 325 7*014 2*039 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography