DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 01/22 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.1 - - 65.8 - - 71.5 - - 69.9 - - 61.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 104 - - 61 - - -3 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 770 - - 2835 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 2738 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 2870 - - 4935 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 74 - - 1244 - - 2405 - - 4157 - - 421 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 176 - - 229 - - 7 - - 2 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 7 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 170 - - 154 - - 275 - - 337 - - 211 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 0 - - 1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5686 - - -9162 - - -9041 - - -11455 - - -9792 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7828 - - 12032 - - 13977 - - 13599 - - 11937 sfcLCL ODpotential -15693 - - -15890 - - -15099 - - -17646 - - -17319 ODpotential blCL 17835 - - 18760 - - 20034 - - 19790 - - 19463 blCL maxRH 82 - - 88 - - 99 - - 92 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.1 - - 65.8 - - 71.5 - - 69.9 - - 61.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.3 - - 20.9 - - 17.4 - - 17.6 - - 17.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.2 - - 64.9 - - 70.8 - - 70.7 - - 65.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.1 - - 20.6 - - 17.2 - - 17.2 - - 17.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 104 - - 61 - - -3 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 770 - - 2835 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 30 - - 50 - - 95 - - 68 - - 73 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95803 22 282 39 268 49 263 46 270 47 287 95803 88825 19 276 28 268 36 268 26 274 33 284 88825 83439 24 300 22 276 26 278 16 285 21 285 83439 78932 20 303 21 289 20 297 11 305 14 306 78932 75043 18 290 18 281 18 307 16 327 16 335 75043 71616 20 312 9 280 13 291 17 315 18 329 71616 68517 23 321 11 338 10 302 16 317 17 326 68517 65669 23 321 19 338 13 322 16 326 17 327 65669 63028 26 316 21 326 17 311 20 312 18 322 63028 60465 27 315 25 313 22 314 23 300 25 310 60465 57779 31 308 29 310 27 303 24 303 26 303 57779 54974 34 297 30 297 27 293 28 288 27 293 54974 52280 37 290 34 283 33 286 31 284 27 282 52280 49833 36 286 36 272 36 277 36 275 31 280 49833 47608 39 285 39 271 39 270 40 261 36 273 47608 45560 45 281 46 264 45 270 41 263 35 271 45560 43666 47 271 50 254 49 263 45 267 41 267 43666 41918 51 266 49 260 50 259 52 260 53 257 41918 40313 58 270 59 261 60 258 59 255 54 253 40313 38836 73 267 75 257 71 255 70 257 62 259 38836 37469 78 261 79 252 78 251 87 250 82 245 37469 36163 76 259 78 252 83 251 84 247 82 240 36163 34836 75 258 79 251 83 251 82 248 77 242 34836 33459 73 257 79 252 80 252 80 247 74 243 33459 32038 71 256 78 254 76 252 76 247 70 244 32038 30560 66 253 71 256 69 249 66 249 64 243 30560 29014 58 253 55 250 55 252 51 252 57 242 29014 27403 55 257 49 244 43 251 36 255 46 250 27403 25727 48 258 48 249 41 249 33 254 35 251 25727 23984 43 257 40 258 36 258 31 252 30 240 23984 22175 37 252 35 263 31 266 29 255 29 232 22175 20295 31 244 34 265 30 269 25 259 26 239 20295 18342 24 248 30 247 25 253 21 253 21 244 18342 16358 17 255 20 229 24 257 23 260 19 254 16358 14448 16 259 15 246 23 240 16 262 17 280 14448 12710 17 259 14 258 15 227 16 247 13 286 12710 11165 18 259 13 257 12 244 15 236 14 238 11165 9793 17 256 12 253 13 236 14 227 16 211 9793 8569 14 249 10 248 13 223 14 227 13 211 8569 7477 10 236 8 237 12 218 15 232 12 214 7477 6503 6 229 7 215 10 216 12 223 13 225 6503 5641 3 243 6 190 7*218 8 228 14 231 5641 4876 1 235 7 169 4*231 4 253 11 233 4876 4189 3 130 9 160 3 260 3 308 9 236 4189 3579 6 129 10 156 3 276 3 323 7 241 3579 3068 7 127 10*155 3 287 3 329 6 243 3068 2674 6 133 9*155 3 297 3 334 5 244 2674 2403 5 150 8 154 3 299 3 335 4 235 2403 2238 6 162 7 153 3 301 3*336 4*213 2238 2144 5*170 6 154 3 305 3*337 4*211 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography