DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.1 - - 83.0 - - 87.1 - - 84.4 - - 73.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 224 - - 248 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 4107 - - 7950 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 4730 - - 7752 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 6207 - - 10050 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 757 - - 3241 - - 3451 - - 10043 - - 396 Hgt.Variab. W* 19 - - 400 - - 515 - - 25 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 12 - - 20 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 7 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 147 - - 181 - - 246 - - 332 - - 358 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4961 - - -4072 - - -961 - - -8783 - - -6503 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7105 - - 10279 - - 11012 - - 10929 - - 8648 sfcLCL ODpotential -9116 - - -6384 - - -1609 - - -10258 - - -10407 ODpotential blCL 11260 - - 12591 - - 11659 - - 12403 - - 12552 blCL maxRH 100 - - 72 - - 82 - - 73 - - 66 maxRH CAPE 400 - - 70 - - 130 - - 40 - - 50 CAPE Temp@2m 70.1 - - 83.0 - - 87.1 - - 84.4 - - 73.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 46.8 - - 45.4 - - 46.0 - - 43.8 - - 43.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 70.2 - - 81.2 - - 85.2 - - 84.3 - - 76.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.5 - - 45.0 - - 45.5 - - 43.5 - - 43.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 224 - - 248 - - 3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 4107 - - 7950 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 0 - - 27 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97850 20 280 29 285 25 271 29 292 28 298 97850 90540 17 278 19 279 18 278 22 277 25 284 90540 84908 13 268 14 272 13 273 16 284 20 281 84908 80247 10 277 11 295 10 260 12 277 15 304 80247 76220 7 289 9 313 7 256 8 273 12 318 76220 72654 4 299 5 305 5 264 5 302 8 330 72654 69440 1 253 3 176 4 213 3 236 5 321 69440 66509 4 071 4 180 4 262 3 268 4 320 66509 63817 3 041 6 187 8 235 9 257 7 317 63817 61227 9 279 9 283 7 245 9 236 8 278 61227 58547 18 251 18 261 15 264 11 239 14 233 58547 55786 23 245 19 257 18 268 15 264 15 241 55786 53154 28 258 23 253 25 248 25 260 21 262 53154 50776 31 264 25 248 28 237 29 250 26 257 50776 48624 39 267 28 258 30 249 30 249 26 257 48624 46647 44 265 37 264 35 253 31 251 26 262 46647 44815 43 262 41 262 38 251 31 252 27 266 44815 43102 41 260 40 259 39 251 30 255 28 268 43102 41494 41 257 38 257 38 250 31 257 29 266 41494 39977 40 255 37 254 38 247 33 258 31 263 39977 38544 40 254 37 249 38 247 35 258 33 259 38544 37160 39 252 36 247 38 248 37 256 35 256 37160 35760 38 249 36 246 37 249 36 252 35 253 35760 34316 37 248 36 246 35 250 35 250 34 252 34316 32831 37 251 36 249 33 250 31 250 33 249 32831 31291 38 254 35 252 32 250 28 251 30 248 31291 29685 40 254 35 252 31 249 29 250 30 247 29685 28011 47 255 39 250 34 249 33 247 36 246 28011 26268 52 255 47 249 43 249 40 247 40 248 26268 24460 53 250 51 246 50 246 46 246 44 249 24460 22597 48 246 48 239 51 243 48 244 44 244 22597 20675 40 246 40 235 46 239 45 241 42 237 20675 18688 31 240 32 228 38 233 40 235 40 231 18688 16675 29 234 31 224 34 227 33 228 36 227 16675 14741 25 226 27 220 30 218 28 221 28 225 14741 12981 22 212 23 214 24 204 22 209 21 220 12981 11410 21 209 23 211 19*198 17 206 17 205 11410 10006 19 212 21 210 13*202 13 211 15 193 10006 8749 16 215 17 209 11 206 8 230 12 194 8749 7626 14 220 12 205 7 218 6 256 8 208 7626 6625 11 224 9*202 4 252 6 296 6 237 6625 5739 11 225 8*197 4 278 7 317 5 261 5739 4953 13 214 7 193 4 294 7 322 4 283 4953 4246 14 190 6 180 5 301 8 327 3 347 4246 3619 17 165 6 176 5 308 8 329 6 013 3619 3093 23 142 6 173 6 311 8 331 8 012 3093 2689 22 139 6 170 6 313 8 331 9 008 2689 2410 15 142 5 169 6 315 8 332 8 008 2410 2241 12 143 5 168 6 315 8 331 5*010 2241 2145 7*147 5 168 5 315 7*332 2*358 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography