DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/28 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.0 - - 79.2 - - 84.7 - - 80.8 - - 69.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 201 - - 192 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3490 - - 6608 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4218 - - 6550 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5590 - - 8708 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 193 - - 1766 - - 1822 - - 7887 - - 248 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 365 - - 445 - - 9 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 BL Wind Direction 172 - - 191 - - 225 - - 316 - - 204 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4946 - - -5851 - - -4921 - - -10602 - - -7480 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7090 - - 11442 - - 13629 - - 12748 - - 9625 sfcLCL ODpotential -12582 - - -10081 - - -8655 - - -15312 - - -14582 ODpotential blCL 14725 - - 15671 - - 17363 - - 17457 - - 16726 blCL maxRH 39 - - 51 - - 88 - - 36 - - 41 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.0 - - 79.2 - - 84.7 - - 80.8 - - 69.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.0 - - 36.5 - - 31.9 - - 32.3 - - 35.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.1 - - 77.6 - - 83.1 - - 81.9 - - 73.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 37.8 - - 36.1 - - 31.3 - - 31.5 - - 34.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 201 - - 192 - - -8 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3490 - - 6608 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 52 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97313 43 271 49 270 45 280 39 273 46 262 97313 89906 28 270 31 268 32 275 34 271 34 287 89906 84272 24 270 23 267 27 266 29 276 30 293 84272 79669 23 266 19 267 23 253 26 268 25 280 79669 75723 17 270 17 265 20 263 19 261 19 263 75723 72221 15 286 11 263 18 271 14 275 14 267 72221 69032 16 282 7 254 16 268 15 264 16 261 69032 66090 17 278 8 261 16 259 14 246 16 253 66090 63348 22 267 14 253 18 260 20 250 22 247 63348 60686 31 257 24 239 29 248 30 248 30 253 60686 57925 35 254 29 236 34 239 38 247 36 248 57925 55068 45 259 34 244 38 243 43 248 43 249 55068 52345 57 251 47 244 50 240 55 241 53 243 52345 49900 59 248 53 236 57 235 60 237 56 238 49900 47710 59 246 56 238 59 234 62 236 59 239 47710 45724 61 245 59 245 58 240 59 239 59 241 45724 43913 57 245 53 246 50 241 53 241 53 241 43913 42255 51 248 46 245 43 240 46 244 46 242 42255 40724 47 251 43 247 39 247 44 246 43 240 40724 39291 45 252 41 249 42 254 41 252 37 241 39291 37940 40 254 39 251 39 253 40 256 35 241 37940 36632 37 257 36 253 37 251 40 250 36 240 36632 35302 36 251 33 252 37 248 41 247 36 240 35302 33923 35 249 32 252 37 247 42 245 37 239 33923 32497 32 254 31 253 35 246 39 243 38 237 32497 31014 28 257 29 253 33 247 34 244 35 234 31014 29462 26 259 27 253 31 248 29 248 29 232 29462 27840 25 262 25 251 27 248 27 247 26 234 27840 26146 21 260 23 246 24 247 25 247 23 236 26146 24382 17 255 20 240 23 238 22 251 19 242 24382 22549 17 257 18 239 19 236 20 257 16 245 22549 20642 17 253 16 242 18 241 17 263 14 245 20642 18658 14 238 17 236 19 242 15 254 13 245 18658 16638 15 232 18 226 19 237 16 239 13 237 16638 14696 16 229 18 223 18 227 16 229 13 227 14696 12929 16 228 17 221 18 220 17 223 14 221 12929 11356 15 229 15 219 18 211 17 207 16 212 11356 9953 13 230 13 213 16 199 15 188 17 187 9953 8702 13 230 13 208 13*199 13 193 15 180 8702 7588 12 215 14 202 12*201 9 207 11 208 7588 6596 12 196 12 199 9 207 6 236 9 233 6596 5717 10 182 9*196 7 220 5 256 8 253 5717 4936 8 170 8*193 6 229 5 274 7 271 4936 4233 8 160 7 192 5 237 5 288 6 289 4233 3610 9 155 7 191 5 245 6 298 5 316 3610 3087 10 157 6 190 5 252 6 306 5 348 3087 2685 11 165 5 188 5 256 6 310 5 007 2685 2408 11 170 5 187 4 258 6 314 5 017 2408 2240 8 169 4 187 4 260 5*316 2 027 2240 2144 5*172 4 186 4 262 4*316 0*204 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography