DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 12/10 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.2 - - 68.2 - - 77.8 - - 70.6 - - 58.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 75 - - 115 - - -23 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 358 - - 1769 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 2669 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2458 - - 3869 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 48 - - 733 - - 1537 - - 1401 - - 187 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 123 - - 241 - - 8 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 22 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 2 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 188 - - 190 - - 045 - - 351 - - 314 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -2 - - -3 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5590 - - -9977 - - -11026 - - -10744 - - -7744 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7734 - - 12436 - - 14896 - - 12889 - - 9888 sfcLCL ODpotential -19396 - - -18571 - - -17725 - - -18879 - - -18375 ODpotential blCL 21539 - - 21029 - - 21594 - - 21023 - - 20519 blCL maxRH 22 - - 18 - - 24 - - 26 - - 27 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 45.2 - - 68.2 - - 77.8 - - 70.6 - - 58.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.4 - - 22.1 - - 20.0 - - 22.3 - - 23.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.3 - - 67.3 - - 76.6 - - 72.8 - - 63.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.9 - - 21.6 - - 19.7 - - 21.9 - - 23.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 75 - - 115 - - -23 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 358 - - 1769 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96404 3 350 15 317 18 316 19 354 17 324 96404 89300 19 055 12 061 5 069 16 356 18 019 89300 83773 14 047 7 053 10 045 13 307 14 345 83773 79182 13 024 10 054 13 023 6 299 14 342 79182 75237 14 005 12 035 7 357 6 017 18 014 75237 71755 16 016 11 006 7 000 13 014 13 010 71755 68612 12 004 11 342 8 011 14 345 9 010 68612 65721 15 328 16 328 15 354 14 327 14 348 65721 63042 19 330 18 313 19 323 19 332 14 313 63042 60475 23 325 20 311 23 308 22 314 18 317 60475 57808 25 310 22 303 27 300 24 291 26 309 57808 55029 31 291 27 288 33 288 29 296 30 287 55029 52372 33 286 32 281 37 283 35 293 33 285 52372 49967 35 285 30 272 35 278 40 287 36 289 49967 47798 33 284 24 275 28 280 35 278 34 289 47798 45830 24 285 10 271 16 277 19 260 22 271 45830 44045 10 316 11 025 3 086 12 208 15 206 44045 42408 1 023 13 005 9 037 10 089 17 123 42408 40885 8 144 4 015 4 024 11 060 18 075 40885 39459 13 111 6 069 4 087 11 075 16 067 39459 38113 13 100 7 075 6 088 11 087 16 070 38113 36809 15 098 8 082 6 088 10 098 13 074 36809 35484 16 084 9 081 7 081 12 100 12 092 35484 34108 17 074 11 071 9 073 13 112 13 105 34108 32684 18 072 16 066 12 070 14 102 12 077 32684 31197 19 066 21 066 17 064 15 077 14 071 31197 29636 21 057 22 064 18 056 16 071 15 069 29636 28002 23 055 22 062 16 063 17 067 14 071 28002 26295 25 057 21 062 16 061 17 065 14 074 26295 24515 25 058 20 059 16 051 16 057 14 071 24515 22666 22 059 19 058 14 043 15 047 14 054 22666 20749 16 061 15 070 10 046 12 027 12 020 20749 18752 11 051 10 077 7 038 12 004 16 008 18752 16713 13 033 9 048 11 020 15 007 17 014 16713 14745 17 025 14 030 16 026 16 023 15 028 14745 12954 15 028 15 034 14 040 15 040 13 042 12954 11363 12 023 12 046 12 058 13 055 14 050 11363 9948 10 022 9 058 11 068 11 078 13 052 9948 8688 11 032 9 075 9 084 10 113 10 065 8688 7565 10 043 10 086 7 112 10 119 5 105 7565 6569 11 053 9 090 7 139 9 115 6 115 6569 5687 12 055 8 091 7 154 8 106 7 093 5687 4906 11 061 6 099 5 159 5 094 7 065 4906 4206 8 074 4 136 3*149 4 052 8 043 4206 3586 4 102 5 181 1*075 7 016 8 024 3586 3070 2 138 8 177 2 051 10 004 9 010 3070 2674 3 175 6*180 2 041 11 359 10 001 2674 2402 5 179 4*191 2 036 11 356 9 355 2402 2238 6*179 3 190 2 035 9 354 5*338 2238 2144 5*188 3 189 2 032 6*351 3*314 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography