DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/30 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.6 - - 67.0 - - 74.8 - - 68.6 - - 58.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -21 - - 98 - - 153 - - -17 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1083 - - 4474 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 4796 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 3183 - - 6574 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 102 - - 2024 - - 1952 - - 4584 - - 201 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 196 - - 361 - - 7 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 11 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 176 - - 191 - - 252 - - 261 - - 259 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 7 - - -3 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3059 - - -6773 - - -6889 - - -10017 - - -7725 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5202 - - 9957 - - 13464 - - 12161 - - 9869 sfcLCL ODpotential -12140 - - -11952 - - -10900 - - -14644 - - -14424 ODpotential blCL 14283 - - 15135 - - 17474 - - 16788 - - 16567 blCL maxRH 42 - - 45 - - 60 - - 32 - - 39 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.6 - - 67.0 - - 74.8 - - 68.6 - - 58.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 32.9 - - 31.0 - - 22.9 - - 23.0 - - 23.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 50.1 - - 66.1 - - 73.5 - - 70.9 - - 63.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 32.2 - - 30.3 - - 22.5 - - 22.6 - - 23.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -21 - - 98 - - 153 - - -17 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 1083 - - 4474 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96480 17 058 23 061 28 099 24 087 26 067 96480 89298 20 061 18 069 20 086 17 093 22 063 89298 83751 12 050 12 043 19 065 16 099 11 070 83751 79137 5 005 5 055 16 017 13 082 11 085 79137 75162 10 282 6 066 10 349 14 030 12 064 75162 71650 8 290 8 302 12 338 15 355 9 034 71650 68476 13 312 12 261 13 305 11 336 7 359 68476 65555 21 302 13 258 17 295 17 309 9 311 65555 62851 26 279 19 255 28 269 28 291 19 302 62851 60227 26 274 19 260 32 255 35 268 28 289 60227 57474 33 278 28 282 34 265 37 276 36 284 57474 54622 51 279 48 275 50 266 54 271 52 278 54622 51901 64 276 64 270 60 263 64 264 63 271 51901 49443 71 272 69 267 62 262 65 263 68 268 49443 47243 75 266 73 266 67 260 70 262 75 265 47243 45265 83 263 81 267 73 263 79 261 80 259 45265 43465 111 259 92 266 80 265 79 262 75 261 43465 41801 136 248 119 256 89 259 80 265 81 265 41801 40250 136 249 131 250 111 250 86 262 93 263 40250 38794 140 249 132 249 113 248 92 257 94 258 38794 37421 138 252 129 251 110 248 93 254 89 256 37421 36094 129 257 111 256 95 252 83 255 84 258 36094 34754 115 261 96 260 73 260 68 258 76 262 34754 33377 91 267 73 265 58 267 59 264 65 266 33377 31966 67 271 63 266 54 273 60 271 61 273 31966 30501 49 275 62 263 54 273 62 274 57 276 30501 28968 47 282 55 268 53 271 58 278 53 276 28968 27366 45 284 49 276 50 273 48 280 49 275 27366 25696 40 285 46 281 47 279 44 280 47 276 25696 23962 36 290 41 285 43 285 40 278 45 278 23962 22165 30 297 31 290 37 288 36 279 41 280 22165 20301 28 302 26 292 29 285 32 277 38 280 20301 18362 29 303 24 294 25 277 31 275 36 278 18362 16386 27 296 22 290 24 267 29 271 36 276 16386 14481 25 290 22 281 26 261 29 269 35 273 14481 12743 24 287 23 274 30 263 30 269 34 273 12743 11193 23 282 23 270 31 264 30 271 30 272 11193 9813 22 275 19 266 27 260 28 269 26 267 9813 8582 20 267 16 258 22 248 23 257 24 261 8582 7485 17 258 15 243 17*240 20 240 25 253 7485 6508 13 249 14 232 13*243 18 234 26 244 6508 5644 10 245 13 229 13 245 17 238 25 239 5644 4878 8 237 11 226 12 250 16 243 25 241 4878 4189 6 218 9 222 11 253 15 247 24 247 4189 3579 6 195 8*216 11 256 15 251 23 253 3579 3067 7 190 6*200 10 258 14 255 20 259 3067 2674 9 189 5 191 10 260 13 257 15 265 2674 2402 10 180 5 187 9 261 11 259 10 269 2402 2238 8*173 4 186 9 261 8*260 7 266 2238 2143 5*176 4 185 8 262 5*261 4*259 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography