DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/27 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 2149z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 60.4 - - 79.0 - - 83.7 - - 80.4 - - 68.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 201 - - 211 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3611 - - 5586 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4307 - - 5821 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5711 - - 7686 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 169 - - 1811 - - 1508 - - 6947 - - 242 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 369 - - 434 - - 13 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 11 - - 16 - - 1 - - 4 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 0 BL Wind Direction 180 - - 195 - - 232 - - 312 - - 256 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -5 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4788 - - -6544 - - -5901 - - -10439 - - -7380 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6932 - - 12255 - - 13588 - - 12584 - - 9524 sfcLCL ODpotential -12995 - - -11042 - - -9553 - - -14284 - - -13866 ODpotential blCL 15138 - - 16753 - - 17239 - - 16429 - - 16010 blCL maxRH 39 - - 30 - - 44 - - 33 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 60.4 - - 79.0 - - 83.7 - - 80.4 - - 68.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.2 - - 32.8 - - 31.3 - - 32.8 - - 35.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.6 - - 77.4 - - 82.1 - - 81.4 - - 73.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.0 - - 32.3 - - 30.8 - - 32.1 - - 34.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 201 - - 211 - - -10 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3611 - - 5586 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97381 29 258 41 268 50 263 41 274 49 270 97381 90026 27 257 30 265 34 267 28 279 31 272 90026 84393 25 255 22 250 26 268 25 277 25 275 84393 79732 22 265 13 239 20 253 23 267 24 269 79732 75733 21 266 15 260 16 248 18 256 20 261 75733 72215 18 276 19 265 16 271 16 262 17 238 72215 69031 17 278 20 262 21 278 18 272 12 245 69031 66088 11 264 19 250 22 267 23 267 12 254 66088 63350 10 247 18 239 23 257 22 251 17 248 63350 60695 17 276 18 255 23 254 21 260 21 248 60695 57929 28 273 22 264 24 259 32 267 25 262 57929 55066 34 268 27 268 33 263 39 270 34 267 55066 52347 40 271 35 271 40 271 45 272 44 272 52347 49920 43 273 42 278 45 275 50 274 51 270 49920 47755 44 277 46 281 52 274 56 271 53 268 47755 45791 43 279 50 283 55 271 55 267 52 266 45791 43993 39 279 52 286 53 273 51 262 53 261 43993 42334 36 283 48 285 53 277 48 261 52 261 42334 40787 38 288 39 282 54 278 44 267 46 261 40787 39332 38 286 37 284 52 281 40 268 41 262 39332 37961 34 282 38 280 45 285 37 265 37 260 37961 36638 33 288 33 271 39 282 34 265 33 260 36638 35298 35 290 29 269 35 274 36 263 34 265 35298 33912 37 291 28 271 29 269 35 263 32 273 33912 32484 37 296 28 278 27 271 31 266 29 276 32484 30999 35 297 31 289 27 268 29 273 28 274 30999 29441 32 289 31 288 26 271 27 277 26 271 29441 27814 32 282 32 284 26 277 25 276 25 269 27814 26116 30 286 27 284 25 279 22 272 23 259 26116 24352 23 294 19 282 21 275 23 270 22 253 24352 22527 17 293 18 279 18 267 21 268 18 252 22527 20635 11 277 14 266 16 266 17 270 12 252 20635 18668 16 257 15 256 16 262 16 263 11 249 18668 16663 17 256 17 253 18 257 17 255 15 242 16663 14725 15 269 15 254 16 254 16 254 13 244 14725 12953 14 281 11 259 11 242 12 249 11 240 12953 11370 12 282 6 256 9 221 12 227 14 214 11370 9959 8 255 6 230 11 206 16 196 20 190 9959 8705 7 215 9 201 11*200 16 197 18 196 8705 7589 7 203 11 191 8*205 13 207 15 220 7589 6596 6 191 9*193 8 208 8 233 11 240 6596 5717 5 155 8*195 5 227 7 260 7 271 5717 4935 6 135 7 195 5 237 7 279 6 304 4935 4233 6 132 6 196 4 247 7 289 6 332 4233 3610 6 141 6 195 4 256 7 298 7 352 3610 3088 7 154 5 194 4 262 7 303 7 005 3088 2685 8 164 5 194 4 268 7 307 8 014 2685 2408 9 173 4 192 4 270 7 310 6 022 2408 2240 7 175 4 191 4 271 6*311 3 032 2240 2144 4*180 4 192 3 272 5*312 0*256 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography