DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/19 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 90.6 - - 97.6 - - 96.0 - - 84.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 137 - - 281 - - 34 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2998 - - 8575 - - 9696 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3713 - - 8328 - - 6907 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5098 - - 10675 - - 11796 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3813 - - 3129 - - 2778 - - 261 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 314 - - 552 - - 292 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 8 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 13 - - 12 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 225 - - 240 - - 246 - - 252 Direction Wind Shear - - - 8 - - 7 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - -5 - - 10 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -6856 - - -4544 - - -2337 - - -9553 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11954 - - 15220 - - 14134 - - 11698 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11365 - - -7184 - - -4923 - - -15218 ODpotential blCL - - - 16463 - - 17859 - - 16719 - - 17363 blCL maxRH - - - 56 - - 53 - - 58 - - 53 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 90.6 - - 97.6 - - 96.0 - - 84.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 45.6 - - 37.5 - - 41.0 - - 41.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 89.4 - - 95.5 - - 95.5 - - 88.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 44.4 - - 36.9 - - 40.4 - - 40.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 137 - - 281 - - 34 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2998 - - 8575 - - 9696 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98443 14 092 9 119 3 256 9 006 98443 91075 23 081 14 097 13 084 12 093 91075 85399 19 095 23 086 23 081 21 085 85399 80694 18 107 19 089 21 068 26 066 80694 76654 16 089 16 087 16 082 20 057 76654 73088 16 083 20 081 17 087 13 064 73088 69859 20 091 19 095 17 085 14 073 69859 66905 19 095 16 083 18 083 15 082 66905 64165 13 069 13 066 18 048 19 065 64165 61512 8 080 5 050 9 006 12 013 61512 58776 4 350 5 340 7 322 12 331 58776 55974 5 137 10 266 13 273 14 279 55974 53312 12 348 8 260 15 274 17 276 53312 50906 33 307 22 286 26 277 28 279 50906 48740 39 300 26 279 32 275 32 277 48740 46759 39 299 26 280 31 277 37 284 46759 44925 42 300 31 285 35 286 43 284 44925 43214 46 297 38 286 41 289 43 286 43214 41609 42 291 40 281 40 290 42 292 41609 40100 36 283 35 276 39 292 46 301 40100 38680 31 276 33 274 39 296 49 306 38680 37313 27 281 31 283 38 295 51 307 37313 35933 29 295 32 294 36 292 49 304 35933 34509 33 298 34 295 36 288 42 298 34509 33041 33 296 35 295 36 288 39 289 33041 31515 29 290 32 294 35 292 36 284 31515 29920 26 281 29 292 29 291 31 285 29920 28259 25 278 26 288 25 283 26 284 28259 26531 23 280 22 286 21 281 23 281 26531 24736 25 279 20 281 18 280 20 274 24736 22873 24 274 20 277 18 273 18 272 22873 20937 25 264 21 265 18 271 17 271 20937 18926 30 254 23 259 18 266 15 273 18926 16885 24 240 24 247 18 254 14 258 16885 14926 19 229 21 233 17 241 14 241 14926 13145 17 232 19 230 14*228 12 222 13145 11555 16 237 17*232 13*231 9 201 11555 10134 16 238 15*232 13 233 9 205 10134 8861 17 236 15 233 13 237 9 219 8861 7723 18 234 14 235 13 243 9 232 7723 6708 18 232 14 238 12 248 10 245 6708 5808 16*229 13 241 12 252 11 256 5808 5008 14*227 13 243 12 255 13 262 5008 4288 13 225 12 246 12 257 15 265 4288 3649 11 225 12 248 12 259 17 267 3649 3114 9 225 11 250 11 260 17 266 3114 2701 8 226 11 251 11 261 17 266 2701 2417 7 226 10 252 11 261 13 265 2417 2244 7 226 10 252 10 262 8 261 2244 2145 6 225 9 252 9 262 5*252 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography