DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1555z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.6 - - 72.3 - - 61.9 - - 61.2 - - 58.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 127 - - 25 - - 0 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 4425 - - 801 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 4653 - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2144 - - 6525 - - 2901 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 192 - - 3324 - - 2194 - - 4086 - - 2860 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 340 - - 124 - - 23 - - 14 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 12 - - 10 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 161 - - 190 - - 248 - - 164 - - 160 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 7 - - -5 - - -2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2685 - - -2177 - - 508 - - -429 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4829 - - 8702 - - 2393 - - 2573 - - 2144 sfcLCL ODpotential -6743 - - -3973 - - -599 - - -1416 - - -1338 ODpotential blCL 8887 - - 10498 - - 3500 - - 3560 - - 3482 blCL maxRH 68 - - 90 - - 100 - - 100 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 1050 - - 640 - - 230 CAPE Temp@2m 58.6 - - 72.3 - - 61.9 - - 61.2 - - 58.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.0 - - 41.4 - - 58.4 - - 56.9 - - 56.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.4 - - 71.1 - - 61.5 - - 61.2 - - 59.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 44.8 - - 41.1 - - 57.5 - - 55.9 - - 55.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 127 - - 25 - - 0 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 44 - - 4425 - - 801 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 60 - - 102 - - 100 - - 72 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 11 - - 10 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96625 44 287 43 284 39 261 52 266 56 282 96625 89335 32 298 31 282 31 284 29 266 39 288 89335 83799 26 300 30 304 31 300 22 302 22 299 83799 79230 21 301 24 306 30 301 27 316 20 319 79230 75296 23 314 25 304 28 311 31 313 25 317 75296 71819 24 309 27 315 26 315 28 302 27 297 71819 68682 23 300 28 296 28 301 27 290 24 281 68682 65780 29 299 23 281 31 277 26 278 22 289 65780 63062 26 291 21 294 30 273 33 273 37 284 63062 60441 31 276 34 276 33 272 40 269 38 277 60441 57721 39 256 34 252 39 268 32 270 32 286 57721 54916 44 245 37 253 43 267 42 292 50 295 54916 52260 42 239 49 249 45 275 54 286 44 282 52260 49866 42 247 45 255 46 283 48 286 25 270 49866 47688 61 244 44 255 56 297 37 301 17 285 47688 45667 63 230 43 259 69 300 44 316 30 304 45667 43798 58 227 45 262 77 303 76 303 74 297 43798 42088 64 228 49 262 80 303 100 287 94 279 42088 40507 68 225 53 254 80 303 105 278 92 274 40507 39021 69 221 56 244 77 303 96 274 71 278 39021 37619 71 213 58 238 68 303 83 276 56 298 37619 36265 71 207 60 224 58 304 65 287 72 317 36265 34896 69 205 61 205 56 299 49 300 84 316 34896 33491 62 203 62 196 47 283 48 304 88 310 33491 32051 54 204 61 198 40 269 53 308 91 305 32051 30558 49 207 61 196 32 235 60 312 83 305 30558 28998 46 210 60 192 29 201 69 316 75 313 28998 27374 45 210 59 192 27 207 61 316 79 322 27374 25687 42 207 56 197 28 202 39 303 73 327 25687 23934 38 203 51 203 29 200 23 271 59 319 23934 22115 36 202 44 207 31 201 17 230 59 309 22115 20227 35 202 37 206 30 199 19 204 46 310 20227 18267 33 201 34 206 31 198 20 211 38 311 18267 16275 29 205 32 203 31 196 20 228 26 296 16275 14367 28 210 30 202 30 194 23 234 18 248 14367 12639 28 209 28 204 30 195 24 236 15 230 12639 11105 28 204 27 206 31 195 24 236 15 232 11105 9740 25 202 28 207 31 195 23 235 16 238 9740 8522 20 201 26 204 28 194 22 230 17 240 8522 7435 15 201 22*199 24 194 20 222 17 238 7435 6469 13 202 16*192 22 198 18 215 17 232 6469 5613 12 206 13 189 19 205 16 213 17 226 5613 4855 12 211 12 189 18 213 13 212 17 221 4855 4173 13 215 12 190 16 219 11 212 17 218 4173 3568 14 217 12 190 16 221 9 211 16 216 3568 3061 14 211 11 190 13*235 7 205 13 212 3061 2671 13 198 10 191 11*244 4 188 10 205 2671 2402 12 182 10 190 10 248 4 178 7 190 2402 2238 8*168 9 191 10 250 3*171 6*175 2238 2144 4*161 8 191 8 251 3*164 4*160 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography