DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 01/11 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 66.8 - - 64.3 - - 52.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 164 - - 204 - - -26 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1876 - - 3083 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2957 - - 3918 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3976 - - 5183 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 845 - - 1211 - - 3835 - - 399 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 276 - - 350 - - 13 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 32 - - 24 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 129 - - 125 - - 117 - - 149 Direction Wind Shear - - - 19 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 6 - - 2 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -8333 - - -8919 - - -11494 - - -9122 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12309 - - 14103 - - 13639 - - 11266 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16080 - - -14865 - - -17773 - - -18011 ODpotential blCL - - - 20056 - - 20048 - - 19917 - - 20154 blCL maxRH - - - 24 - - 41 - - 41 - - 31 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.8 - - 66.8 - - 64.3 - - 52.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 13.0 - - 12.5 - - 12.4 - - 11.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 57.9 - - 65.6 - - 65.4 - - 57.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 12.7 - - 12.2 - - 12.1 - - 11.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 164 - - 204 - - -26 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1876 - - 3083 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96184 47 281 51 266 52 272 54 292 96184 89103 34 298 24 295 26 279 30 294 89103 83671 22 293 17 321 16 317 18 304 83671 79168 13 281 16 296 11 332 11 308 79168 75270 14 301 17 311 10 329 9 314 75270 71790 11 274 16 305 15 331 13 360 71790 68623 2 260 14 282 19 311 17 345 68623 65718 7 355 11 270 16 301 12 341 65718 63029 11 335 14 314 20 305 14 331 63029 60430 13 308 20 307 26 297 21 302 60430 57723 11 329 16 301 23 287 23 286 57723 54894 21 333 18 310 23 282 27 288 54894 52164 29 317 24 295 27 273 35 286 52164 49683 29 300 28 285 27 267 33 276 49683 47442 29 287 29 279 28 267 30 271 47442 45405 25 283 27 281 26 269 25 280 45405 43547 20 300 23 288 18 282 14 285 43547 41842 19 320 21 304 19 321 7 347 41842 40270 15 332 14 298 16 337 18 009 40270 38813 16 052 2 318 18 019 24 017 38813 37454 26 055 20 056 30 033 32 035 37454 36150 27 049 29 051 36 043 40 047 36150 34831 25 048 34 045 43 046 45 052 34831 33464 21 048 36 039 44 041 47 048 33464 32050 18 048 35 036 44 038 46 049 32050 30578 17 048 28 044 41 041 40 052 30578 29041 17 061 24 055 31 051 29 053 29041 27443 17 087 16 071 20 061 19 059 27443 25785 14 100 11 118 11 093 13 073 25785 24059 10 108 9 114 10 095 10 088 24059 22262 10 125 7 092 10 075 8 091 22262 20387 12 123 11 118 10 093 9 093 20387 18429 15 117 14 130 10 111 10 097 18429 16429 16 109 15 133 9 119 9 104 16429 14499 16 106 14 135 7 138 7 120 14499 12741 15 105 12 130 7 152 7 145 12741 11178 13 095 10 114 8 141 6 145 11178 9789 11 092 6 109 5 139 3 128 9789 8554 11 117 6 155 5 172 2 158 8554 7453 16 138 13 157 12 159 6 160 7453 6475 26 139 22 139 18 137 14 144 6475 5612 40 132 26*125 24 127 24 134 5612 4849 46 127 26*125 24 123 31 129 4849 4166 43*126 26 125 23 121 32 125 4166 3560 37*127 25 125 21 120 32 119 3560 3054 35 128 25 126 20 119 30 116 3054 2666 32 129 24 126 18 119 23 118 2666 2398 30 130 22 126 15 118 16 125 2398 2236 27 130 21 126 13*117 11*132 2236 2143 19 131 16 126 8*117 5*149 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography