DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/11 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 73.7 - - 76.1 - - 75.8 - - 72.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 31 - - 76 - - 15 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3515 - - 3933 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3375 - - 4123 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5615 - - 6033 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1930 - - 2177 - - 6810 - - 5738 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 249 - - 301 - - 39 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 27 - - 27 - - 13 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 212 - - 217 - - 215 - - 216 Direction Wind Shear - - - 15 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -12 - - -13 - - -8 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1230 - - -113 - - -4938 - - -3396 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4386 - - 6146 - - 7084 - - 5540 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -486 - - -2989 - - -6335 - - -4882 ODpotential blCL - - - 6101 - - 9022 - - 8480 - - 7026 blCL maxRH - - - 92 - - 75 - - 67 - - 81 maxRH CAPE - - - 100 - - 10 - - 0 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 73.7 - - 76.1 - - 75.8 - - 72.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 61.4 - - 56.2 - - 52.0 - - 55.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 73.4 - - 75.6 - - 75.8 - - 73.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 60.0 - - 55.0 - - 51.6 - - 54.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 31 - - 76 - - 15 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3515 - - 3933 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 66 - - 0 - - 0 - - 25 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 11 - - 9 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98093 31 280 29 290 25 299 29 297 98093 90754 16 242 19 267 21 299 14 290 90754 85097 2 277 13 232 17 260 14 282 85097 80394 7 327 3 219 11 249 7 260 80394 76337 5 302 3 226 7 242 5 246 76337 72765 5 249 4 192 5 230 1 354 72765 69560 7 207 1 313 3 137 3 222 69560 66639 3 147 6 313 3 054 5 108 66639 63953 5 161 7 271 2 279 4 200 63953 61372 1 333 10 182 4 150 3 161 61372 58699 10 279 9 232 9 214 15 205 58699 55944 11 243 17 212 22 183 24 190 55944 53302 5 242 14 148 27 171 32 201 53302 50901 25 228 20 200 25 198 34 220 50901 48739 50 226 46 227 44 233 43 231 48739 46766 52 226 58 231 56 232 51 232 46766 44940 54 232 60 229 59 231 56 232 44940 43232 57 232 62 227 61 235 61 235 43232 41625 59 230 66 227 65 238 68 238 41625 40106 61 229 72 229 72 238 75 237 40106 38668 64 230 77 232 80 238 78 237 38668 37275 66 232 81 233 86 238 81 238 37275 35859 70 234 82 233 90 238 85 240 35859 34392 74 236 83 231 89 237 88 241 34392 32876 78 237 84 230 85 233 85 240 32876 31302 79 236 83 231 82 231 79 237 31302 29665 78 233 78 233 76 233 71 236 29665 27971 72 231 72 233 66 235 65 237 27971 26224 63 227 67 231 58 233 58 237 26224 24426 56 224 61 227 57 230 53 233 24426 22569 52 223 56 225 56 230 51 229 22569 20642 51 222 53 226 51 228 50 228 20642 18641 51 220 50 224 48 225 47 225 18641 16607 55 217 50 220 48 221 46 221 16607 14651 59 213 52 215 52 217 48 219 14651 12877 61 207 54 209 53 213 47 219 12877 11304 60 204 54 206 50 211 43 218 11304 9908 53 203 51 205 41 211 36 213 9908 8666 46 205 45 206 32 213 29 207 8666 7559 40 208 37 209 26 215 24 207 7559 6575 35 210 31*213 24 216 22 214 6575 5702 32*211 30*215 24 216 20 221 5702 4926 31*211 29 216 23 216 19 226 4926 4228 30 212 28 217 22 216 18 228 4228 3607 29 212 28 218 22 216 16 230 3607 3087 27 212 27 218 21 216 14 230 3087 2686 25 212 25 219 20 216 12 229 2686 2409 23 212 24 219 19 216 9 227 2409 2241 21 212 21 219 17*215 7 223 2241 2144 16 212 17 218 13*215 4*216 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography