DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/28 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1556z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 88.7 - - 86.3 - - 74.2 - - 71.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 287 - - 153 - - -6 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3581 - - 2746 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4436 - - 3573 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5681 - - 4846 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3028 - - 4567 - - 2387 - - 1162 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 415 - - 313 - - 28 - - 24 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 14 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 254 - - 311 - - 097 - - 164 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 9 - - 7 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4356 - - -3154 - - -1133 - - -641 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10038 - - 8000 - - 3278 - - 2785 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7266 - - -4781 - - -4023 - - -4001 ODpotential blCL - - - 12947 - - 9627 - - 6168 - - 6145 blCL maxRH - - - 93 - - 99 - - 101 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 90 - - 150 - - 390 - - 240 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 88.7 - - 86.3 - - 74.2 - - 71.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 51.9 - - 58.3 - - 66.5 - - 65.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 86.6 - - 85.0 - - 74.6 - - 71.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.6 - - 57.8 - - 65.4 - - 64.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 287 - - 153 - - -6 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3581 - - 2746 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 72 - - 97 - - 102 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 11 - - 15 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98141 12 094 10 130 7 131 7 005 98141 90777 11 087 13 144 5 115 5 099 90777 85098 13 121 10 131 8 122 6 092 85098 80375 9 130 11 106 10 094 11 081 80375 76313 7 142 8 122 8 069 11 062 76313 72748 9 118 7 131 4 049 8 037 72748 69549 7 054 12 082 7 063 4 073 69549 66628 3 027 12 062 8 063 10 102 66628 63940 2 168 5 039 5 341 5 036 63940 61364 6 204 4 267 5 267 9 260 61364 58690 8 260 10 268 9 273 11 241 58690 55911 27 266 27 262 26 266 22 271 55911 53266 40 266 42 263 49 267 52 271 53266 50901 57 270 54 268 63 267 64 267 50901 48773 69 280 65 272 68 271 68 267 48773 46815 70 273 65 268 70 268 74 262 46815 44995 69 265 66 265 73 260 75 257 44995 43290 71 261 70 262 72 257 76 256 43290 41681 76 259 72 259 70 255 75 255 41681 40161 76 256 75 256 69 257 72 251 40161 38722 74 255 73 256 71 261 72 252 38722 37328 68 254 69 258 71 263 74 257 37328 35911 62 250 64 256 69 261 76 264 35911 34447 58 245 59 249 64 255 72 267 34447 32947 53 245 56 242 58 244 61 259 32947 31399 50 241 55 236 56 226 54 239 31399 29787 51 234 56 228 59 222 53 223 29787 28106 45 236 55 221 59 218 54 218 28106 26363 41 235 52 222 57 218 51 221 26363 24560 41 235 49 225 51 219 52 218 24560 22692 39 236 40 229 44 228 52 221 22692 20753 35 237 35 244 44 241 48 237 20753 18744 31 233 29 247 37 250 39 250 18744 16708 28 221 26 243 27 253 29 252 16708 14752 27 220 26 233 23 253 24 254 14752 12974 24 214 26 228 21 255 20 252 12974 11392 21 205 22 219 20 262 17 244 11392 9981 19 207 17 215 19 248 14 244 9981 8723 17 210 16 215 19 222 16 235 8723 7601 16 214 13 221 18 215 15 216 7601 6603 14 213 10 240 16 218 12 190 6603 5721 10*214 8 272 10 226 7 157 5721 4938 7*225 10*296 4 246 7 131 4938 4234 5 249 12*307 3 039 7 131 4234 3610 5 254 14 311 5 059 8 155 3610 3088 5 261 14 311 6 074 9 142 3088 2686 5 267 14 312 7 087 10 136 2686 2409 5 269 14 313 6 095 9 150 2409 2241 5 270 14 313 6*096 7 159 2241 2144 5 271 12 313 5*097 5*164 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography