DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 69.7 - - 78.3 - - 71.5 - - 60.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -25 - - 71 - - 102 - - -11 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 408 - - 1748 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2128 - - 2532 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2508 - - 3848 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 56 - - 734 - - 1518 - - 1849 - - 199 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 126 - - 231 - - 6 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 33 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 1 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 165 - - 151 - - 034 - - 350 - - 226 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - -2 - - 2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4683 - - -8431 - - -9426 - - -9787 - - -5794 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6826 - - 10940 - - 13274 - - 11932 - - 7939 sfcLCL ODpotential -17170 - - -15947 - - -15224 - - -17096 - - -15332 ODpotential blCL 19313 - - 18455 - - 19072 - - 19240 - - 17476 blCL maxRH 29 - - 76 - - 77 - - 44 - - 49 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 69.7 - - 78.3 - - 71.5 - - 60.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.3 - - 30.0 - - 27.7 - - 27.3 - - 33.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.4 - - 69.0 - - 77.3 - - 74.6 - - 65.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.0 - - 29.7 - - 27.3 - - 26.9 - - 33.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -25 - - 71 - - 102 - - -11 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 408 - - 1748 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 3 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96227 34 290 40 286 40 282 47 280 42 289 96227 89108 28 305 21 283 23 284 28 277 28 296 89108 83635 15 319 10 295 18 304 15 289 21 313 83635 79089 12 326 10 007 14 319 15 345 18 335 79089 75161 16 340 14 016 10 339 21 004 18 354 75161 71697 20 349 13 355 17 016 18 008 16 007 71697 68579 21 344 15 334 24 003 14 004 17 013 68579 65724 19 333 18 323 26 348 17 352 17 357 65724 63099 19 323 17 324 23 335 20 348 16 345 63099 60562 21 313 20 324 20 320 21 333 17 343 60562 57901 21 320 22 317 19 317 18 321 18 319 57901 55124 23 314 20 304 20 298 19 307 20 304 55124 52454 23 301 22 297 23 286 24 291 23 302 52454 50031 30 280 32 283 31 283 31 281 31 288 50031 47850 37 281 34 274 36 276 38 271 39 278 47850 45870 43 278 38 273 42 274 43 273 44 277 45870 44053 43 275 39 275 44 273 44 272 45 269 44053 42378 45 274 42 276 46 270 46 271 47 267 42378 40824 47 272 49 278 52 272 53 271 52 269 40824 39370 41 262 53 278 53 273 53 269 46 271 39370 38007 36 260 49 277 47 278 45 271 43 269 38007 36695 33 265 44 276 43 278 45 275 47 258 36695 35364 27 267 36 274 41 275 44 273 48 266 35364 33982 26 268 32 270 36 272 41 283 43 274 33982 32554 27 276 31 267 30 272 35 285 32 281 32554 31066 28 284 27 268 27 273 29 285 25 293 31066 29505 29 284 26 274 21 270 25 281 21 287 29505 27872 27 281 23 278 22 268 19 276 20 277 27872 26172 23 286 20 280 22 264 16 280 19 273 26172 24405 18 288 16 272 19 270 12 288 13 268 24405 22568 16 284 14 272 16 283 12 298 11 286 22568 20656 13 292 13 283 13 292 12 319 10 318 20656 18667 9 328 7 307 9 311 10 340 5 354 18667 16640 8 344 5 006 6 009 8 022 6 057 16640 14691 8 309 6 008 3 040 6 040 8 085 14691 12923 5 298 4 340 2 008 5 031 6 079 12923 11350 2 324 3 325 1 005 4 038 4 064 11350 9946 2 001 3 342 2 052 4 071 6 078 9946 8691 3 358 4 009 4 071 5 091 6 089 8691 7571 4 010 6 034 6 085 7 109 6 105 7571 6575 4 025 7 054 9 091 9 121 6 114 6575 5694 3 048 7 068 9 099 8 123 5 109 5694 4913 3 080 6 081 6 107 6 117 5 091 4913 4212 4 105 5 093 2*105 2 081 4 069 4212 3592 6 115 4 115 1*066 4 357 3 036 3592 3075 8 127 6 150 1 039 6 349 4 003 3075 2678 10 134 5*154 1 030 7 350 5 357 2678 2404 10 141 4*152 2 024 8 350 4 358 2404 2239 8*152 3 151 2 024 7 350 1*352 2239 2144 6*165 3 151 2 022 5*350 1*226 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography