DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.2 - - 66.3 - - 66.6 - - 65.4 - - 60.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 117 - - 41 - - -24 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3583 - - 3256 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3984 - - 2682 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 5683 - - 5356 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 208 - - 3305 - - 3245 - - 7212 - - 3003 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 307 - - 226 - - 15 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 17 - - 19 - - 8 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 159 - - 193 - - 209 - - 196 - - 222 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -7 - - -9 - - -5 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1210 - - 42 - - 56 - - -4008 - - -3049 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3353 - - 5641 - - 5300 - - 6152 - - 5194 sfcLCL ODpotential -5143 - - -435 - - -1390 - - -5223 - - -5257 ODpotential blCL 7286 - - 6118 - - 6746 - - 7367 - - 7401 blCL maxRH 79 - - 100 - - 80 - - 76 - - 97 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 170 - - 440 - - 170 - - 150 CAPE Temp@2m 54.2 - - 66.3 - - 66.6 - - 65.4 - - 60.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.0 - - 48.9 - - 50.6 - - 45.9 - - 45.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.8 - - 65.3 - - 66.1 - - 66.5 - - 63.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.9 - - 48.8 - - 49.7 - - 45.7 - - 45.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 117 - - 41 - - -24 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 3583 - - 3256 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 16 - - 99 - - 19 - - 2 - - 89 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96790 24 231 33 263 28 257 28 270 42 268 96790 89632 20 252 21 259 28 253 29 275 21 281 89632 84110 15 250 15 249 18 261 22 272 12 302 84110 79504 5 283 9 244 11 286 12 279 10 315 79504 75520 5 009 7 269 10 303 9 309 8 325 75520 72001 4 013 5 303 8 322 8 295 6 322 72001 68824 8 311 9 280 10 309 9 295 12 334 68824 65914 8 271 11 242 12 259 13 273 16 293 65914 63214 17 262 12 236 14 228 14 237 20 258 63214 60575 25 240 18 262 12 240 15 229 18 245 60575 57799 27 242 22 252 18 246 18 219 20 241 57799 54902 31 238 23 243 18 248 20 227 20 229 54902 52128 38 238 34 242 32 250 33 248 35 236 52128 49637 47 235 50 237 50 241 47 242 49 241 49637 47410 54 232 62 231 62 234 57 236 59 237 47410 45387 61 232 70 229 71 229 65 234 66 232 45387 43531 71 232 74 226 75 227 74 232 73 229 43531 41813 82 231 79 227 81 225 82 229 79 227 41813 40214 93 229 88 228 88 223 91 226 84 224 40214 38722 102 229 102 228 101 222 104 223 90 222 38722 37325 109 229 112 226 112 222 114 222 97 221 37325 35985 112 227 116 224 119 222 116 221 103 221 35985 34634 111 226 118 221 123 220 115 221 105 220 34634 33243 107 227 117 222 123 221 113 221 104 218 33243 31815 101 228 111 224 118 223 108 222 100 217 31815 30336 92 228 98 223 109 223 102 221 93 216 30336 28798 83 226 84 221 98 221 95 220 87 214 28798 27205 76 223 76 222 86 223 82 220 77 215 27205 25552 71 223 69 224 75 225 67 220 65 217 25552 23836 62 225 62 222 64 221 56 219 57 216 23836 22055 52 225 56 218 57 218 50 220 51 215 22055 20203 46 222 49 214 49 216 46 220 47 215 20203 18273 42 219 41 213 43 214 42 220 43 215 18273 16305 38 216 35 215 39 214 39 218 39 215 16305 14408 35 214 32 213 36 213 36 215 35 213 14408 12683 31 213 32 210 33 210 33 207 32 207 12683 11147 29 213 33 209 31 200 28 198 29 196 11147 9778 28 211 31 205 29 193 25 195 26 183 9778 8557 27 208 30 201 28 197 23 199 24 180 8557 7469 26 203 29 200 27 201 21 202 22 182 7469 6498 25 197 27*200 25 204 20 203 19 186 6498 5638 24 191 22*197 24*206 20 203 16 193 5638 4874 23 187 18 194 22*208 19 203 14 202 4874 4188 22 183 17 192 21 209 19 202 13 212 4188 3578 19 180 16 192 20 209 18 202 13 223 3578 3067 16 172 15 191 18 209 17 201 11 230 3067 2674 15 160 15 191 17 209 16 200 10 234 2674 2403 13 153 14 190 16 209 14 199 7 236 2403 2238 9 153 13 190 14 209 11*197 5*233 2238 2144 4*159 11 190 12 209 8*196 3*222 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography