DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/10 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1556z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 92.2 - - 92.8 - - 81.0 - - 75.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 208 - - 64 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6502 - - 9340 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 6527 - - 7675 - - 2129 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 8602 - - 11440 - - 2145 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 7281 - - 4877 - - 1849 - - 1080 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 457 - - 356 - - 33 - - 24 W* B/S - - - 9 - - 6 - - 3 - - 2 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 11 - - 2 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 181 - - 214 - - 185 - - 351 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 12 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 14 - - 24 - - -2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2467 - - 245 - - -1798 - - -310 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11070 - - 11196 - - 3943 - - 2455 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3617 - - -618 - - -5089 - - -3952 ODpotential blCL - - - 12219 - - 12058 - - 7234 - - 6097 blCL maxRH - - - 96 - - 100 - - 97 - - 92 maxRH CAPE - - - 310 - - 380 - - 2350 - - 1970 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 92.2 - - 92.8 - - 81.0 - - 75.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 50.6 - - 50.7 - - 70.2 - - 71.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 90.4 - - 92.1 - - 81.9 - - 75.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 50.1 - - 50.1 - - 68.8 - - 70.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 208 - - 64 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6502 - - 9340 - - 45 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 82 - - 101 - - 87 - - 66 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 8 - - 17 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98095 27 254 32 253 32 270 30 279 98095 90710 20 257 16 233 16 281 14 268 90710 85024 15 237 10 227 10 257 5 235 85024 80302 10 209 6 241 5 219 8 194 80302 76238 7 210 4 244 2 268 5 194 76238 72666 3 216 5 250 3 344 1 094 72666 69460 4 143 6 229 4 272 8 350 69460 66538 1 151 4 222 8 246 12 341 66538 63837 5 019 5 274 10 229 12 292 63837 61226 12 360 5 336 7 213 13 241 61226 58533 17 294 11 307 9 252 17 241 58533 55759 24 268 17 286 16 272 16 260 55759 53113 27 262 27 273 28 267 32 262 53113 50729 34 262 42 262 35 256 39 246 50729 48581 44 257 53 254 47 252 42 249 48581 46611 49 260 53 252 53 241 55 248 46611 44789 54 271 51 259 51 244 56 244 44789 43089 56 271 53 264 49 253 55 245 43089 41492 53 269 52 263 50 259 56 246 41492 39986 53 270 53 263 53 257 58 244 39986 38565 57 271 60 261 63 241 59 241 38565 37191 64 268 62 257 66 235 59 240 37191 35797 63 263 53 255 61 236 57 240 35797 34354 53 259 48 253 51 240 49 237 34354 32866 49 253 41 257 40 237 37 231 32866 31318 37 256 38 250 32 249 31 229 31318 29696 25 243 39 240 31 247 29 225 29696 28003 30 226 34 230 33 235 32 225 28003 26250 31 226 37 226 29 230 46 236 26250 24451 29 233 41 226 26 229 52 237 24451 22607 26 238 37 224 32 230 49 226 22607 20706 24 241 32 225 45 229 42 216 20706 18734 20 238 27 219 36 221 38 208 18734 16728 20 226 23 203 31 219 33 197 16728 14796 18 214 21 197 25 205 31 190 14796 13036 16 200 20 196 22 197 28 186 13036 11464 13 187 18*197 20 200 27 190 11464 10057 12 186 16*198 19 204 26 199 10057 8797 12*184 15 202 19 208 26 206 8797 7668 11*185 13 206 19 211 26 210 7668 6661 11 185 11 213 19 213 25 215 6661 5767 11 184 10 218 19 213 21 219 5767 4973 10 182 10 223 18 212 16 222 4973 4260 9 180 9 227 17 210 11 218 4260 3628 9 178 8 231 16 208 8 200 3628 3099 8 177 8 234 13 207 5 138 3099 2693 8 175 8 235 10 205 4 101 2693 2413 7 174 7 237 7 201 3 025 2413 2243 7 173 7 237 4 196 3*003 2243 2145 6 174 6 238 2*185 3*351 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography