DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 12/19 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 73.8 - - 81.4 - - 75.4 - - 65.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 73 - - 122 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 391 - - 2368 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2128 - - 3149 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2491 - - 4468 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 819 - - 1996 - - 3872 - - 133 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 126 - - 271 - - 0 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 12 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 162 - - 266 - - 311 - - 185 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -1 - - 0 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -10409 - - -10522 - - -12773 - - -10063 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12901 - - 14991 - - 14918 - - 12207 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18009 - - -16513 - - -19997 - - -19440 ODpotential blCL - - - 20500 - - 20981 - - 22142 - - 21584 blCL maxRH - - - 22 - - 37 - - 19 - - 16 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 73.8 - - 81.4 - - 75.4 - - 65.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 25.5 - - 23.1 - - 18.0 - - 20.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 73.0 - - 80.2 - - 79.6 - - 70.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 25.1 - - 22.8 - - 17.5 - - 20.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 73 - - 122 - - -4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 391 - - 2368 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96319 25 258 28 245 28 269 22 276 96319 89235 21 262 22 268 15 265 5 211 89235 83734 9 293 21 270 20 271 21 292 83734 79146 12 295 14 261 17 265 27 287 79146 75209 17 286 16 319 6 278 14 268 75209 71711 20 276 30 324 17 342 19 325 71711 68562 15 263 24 296 19 308 18 321 68562 65698 19 319 17 302 14 299 19 321 65698 63046 27 316 25 301 27 302 25 322 63046 60488 36 317 37 311 30 312 25 318 60488 57835 44 303 45 308 44 315 35 317 57835 55098 41 298 41 307 39 305 35 299 55098 52491 33 302 33 310 36 304 38 312 52491 50121 36 313 36 312 40 303 41 305 50121 47969 40 318 38 312 41 304 37 307 47969 45995 43 319 43 312 41 307 42 311 45995 44175 47 317 49 308 42 303 45 306 44175 42490 51 314 51 301 44 300 40 297 42490 40929 45 308 47 290 43 294 39 296 40929 39474 39 299 41 283 39 294 35 296 39474 38109 43 288 38 283 37 296 30 299 38109 36790 47 288 37 285 38 299 28 302 36790 35452 46 290 38 288 43 295 32 302 35452 34066 45 292 39 290 47 291 35 300 34066 32637 44 290 40 291 47 291 39 298 32637 31148 41 291 41 295 47 292 42 298 31148 29590 40 297 41 298 47 292 42 297 29590 27961 42 302 38 295 44 290 44 295 27961 26262 38 302 38 290 41 287 45 291 26262 24492 29 293 38 284 43 286 44 290 24492 22654 27 282 37 284 43 287 44 293 22654 20741 27 282 35 285 41 292 42 298 20741 18751 27 290 32 289 37 296 36 301 18751 16722 28 298 28 293 30 294 30 298 16722 14765 25 307 24 298 26 294 28 296 14765 12982 20 313 20 301 23 296 26 290 12982 11392 16 309 17 295 21 290 24 282 11392 9975 14 301 16 285 21 279 23 279 9975 8711 13 293 16 284 20 275 23 275 8711 7585 11 273 15 284 18 270 19 265 7585 6588 13 263 14 283 15 262 17 251 6588 5707 11 264 12 282 13 254 15 245 5707 4926 8 258 8*276 11 258 14 249 4926 4225 6 226 5*263 9 267 13 256 4225 3603 7 184 4 264 8 277 12 263 3603 3083 10 166 4 265 8 286 10 266 3083 2682 8*165 4 268 7 295 7 264 2682 2407 6*162 4 269 6 302 3 246 2407 2240 6 162 3 270 5*308 2 193 2240 2144 5 161 3 270 4*311 3*185 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography