DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 09/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 80.1 - - 91.5 - - 97.5 - - 96.4 - - 87.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 70 - - 345 - - 384 - - 74 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 778 - - 4056 - - 7230 - - 5640 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 4862 - - 7409 - - 5055 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top 2878 - - 6156 - - 9330 - - 7740 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1295 - - 2494 - - 4358 - - 5887 - - 3529 Hgt.Variab. W* 155 - - 457 - - 574 - - 306 - - 7 W* B/S 4 - - 25 - - 27 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 160 - - 013 - - 018 - - 351 - - 162 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 1 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -10 - - -16 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2922 - - -4837 - - -3635 - - -5467 - - -6186 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5801 - - 10993 - - 12965 - - 13208 - - 8332 sfcLCL ODpotential -7040 - - -6897 - - -4670 - - -6844 - - -8446 ODpotential blCL 9918 - - 13053 - - 14000 - - 14584 - - 10592 blCL maxRH 79 - - 94 - - 79 - - 88 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 590 - - 60 - - 50 - - 20 - - 1270 CAPE Temp@2m 80.1 - - 91.5 - - 97.5 - - 96.4 - - 87.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.0 - - 50.6 - - 47.6 - - 45.6 - - 58.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 79.3 - - 89.1 - - 94.8 - - 95.5 - - 88.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 62.0 - - 50.6 - - 47.6 - - 45.6 - - 59.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 70 - - 345 - - 384 - - 74 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 778 - - 4056 - - 7230 - - 5640 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 14 - - 78 - - 15 - - 51 - - 98 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 8 - - 7 - - 7 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98165 21 087 21 096 22 126 16 143 7 056 98165 90823 19 090 15 101 16 117 17 114 15 087 90823 85143 18 099 16 113 14 108 16 092 20 085 85143 80417 18 093 18 110 19 095 17 089 18 099 80417 76349 15 083 17 101 17 092 18 082 20 102 76349 72761 10 089 14 102 15 103 13 074 17 084 72761 69529 7 113 10 103 12 106 11 087 14 072 69529 66584 12 104 11 096 10 103 11 083 11 072 66584 63875 8 093 9 079 12 096 12 089 11 080 63875 61263 4 118 6 052 11 050 14 072 14 064 61263 58542 8 106 2 121 6 337 12 354 15 028 58542 55741 15 021 4 057 5 227 11 273 14 300 55741 53104 22 339 13 327 6 294 13 278 22 284 53104 50741 25 308 21 304 18 301 18 290 24 289 50741 48612 29 290 25 284 26 290 26 287 30 286 48612 46664 36 282 29 274 31 277 34 277 38 281 46664 44866 42 274 32 270 36 274 42 274 46 279 44866 43191 50 272 35 270 43 273 49 275 52 278 43191 41619 58 272 41 272 50 271 51 275 55 278 41619 40137 61 270 44 271 51 267 50 272 58 277 40137 38740 57 268 43 266 49 262 47 267 61 276 38740 37391 52 266 41 261 45 261 45 264 63 276 37391 36021 45 264 36 258 40 258 43 261 59 272 36021 34599 39 264 31 261 39 256 38 249 54 263 34599 33129 34 267 27 264 34 264 38 254 45 262 33129 31598 29 268 23 268 28 272 35 265 38 261 31598 29997 22 266 19 270 23 276 24 283 34 276 29997 28328 19 266 17 267 18 277 19 284 24 287 28328 26591 17 269 15 273 15 278 14 278 13 279 26591 24788 16 277 13 284 12 278 10 269 8 274 24788 22920 14 286 9 274 13 276 10 275 6 274 22920 20979 10 289 7 251 11 258 11 285 7 296 20979 18964 5 290 8 249 7 234 7 276 7 321 18964 16924 1 138 4 194 4 189 1 211 7 012 16924 14964 6 114 5 128 6 129 8 137 7 022 14964 13175 6 133 7 153 6 133 10 132 5 022 13175 11578 5 122 6 129 6 124 9 124 4 016 11578 10151 5 088 6 094 5*106 7 117 3 003 10151 8875 7 061 7 093 3*078 4 099 3 001 8875 7734 7 044 5 085 3 062 2*033 2 006 7734 6717 6 036 3*040 3 029 3*016 0 077 6717 5815 5 013 3*021 4 016 4 356 3 176 5815 5014 4 325 3 015 4 008 5 350 6 181 5014 4293 5 255 3 013 5 006 6 349 10 181 4293 3652 9 209 3 011 5 003 6 348 14 178 3652 3116 9*188 4 012 5 003 6 349 16 172 3116 2703 7*165 4 012 6 001 6 348 16 168 2703 2418 7 160 4 012 6 001 6 348 15 165 2418 2245 6 158 4 012 5 000 6 347 13*164 2245 2146 6 157 4 013 5 001 6 348 10*162 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography