DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.3 - - 69.1 - - 77.4 - - 70.0 - - 59.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 95 - - 143 - - -11 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 678 - - 2481 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 2127 - - 3319 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2778 - - 4581 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 72 - - 857 - - 2392 - - 2655 - - 241 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 164 - - 290 - - 7 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 17 - - 10 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 2 - - 5 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 186 - - 154 - - 337 - - 334 - - 246 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -1 - - 2 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3803 - - -7545 - - -8979 - - -10395 - - -8038 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5946 - - 10324 - - 13560 - - 12540 - - 10183 sfcLCL ODpotential -14907 - - -15286 - - -15510 - - -19143 - - -19019 ODpotential blCL 17050 - - 18064 - - 20091 - - 21287 - - 21163 blCL maxRH 34 - - 31 - - 65 - - 26 - - 47 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.3 - - 69.1 - - 77.4 - - 70.0 - - 59.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.6 - - 31.8 - - 25.4 - - 23.1 - - 23.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.4 - - 68.2 - - 76.0 - - 72.7 - - 65.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.5 - - 31.5 - - 25.1 - - 22.6 - - 23.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 95 - - 143 - - -11 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 678 - - 2481 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96322 8 068 3 057 3 348 3 355 6 302 96322 89331 27 091 29 094 20 090 16 089 12 061 89331 83895 31 098 30 102 24 094 18 082 15 061 83895 79358 31 095 25 106 23 097 21 080 18 071 79358 75436 25 094 22 104 19 102 20 089 13 093 75436 71964 17 087 16 093 14 111 10 079 7 064 71964 68832 7 082 8 063 8 090 4 013 10 010 68832 65971 8 047 4 027 6 025 7 328 15 358 65971 63347 7 033 4 033 9 009 8 334 15 342 63347 60832 14 014 6 034 11 357 7 357 10 329 60832 58209 23 000 17 354 21 350 14 352 10 327 58209 55467 24 348 20 347 22 336 19 341 14 321 55467 52823 25 347 32 351 29 346 30 343 26 335 52823 50418 35 347 42 340 36 328 38 333 36 324 50418 48234 44 344 36 338 28 309 32 311 27 307 48234 46226 46 342 38 359 20 350 22 309 36 333 46226 44374 39 344 52 007 45 011 51 353 48 347 44374 42657 37 350 68 005 78 356 79 349 65 353 42657 41055 45 356 65 001 79 351 86 342 73 347 41055 39558 50 357 56 350 65 340 66 341 60 343 39558 38164 50 009 41 360 38 343 40 338 44 340 38164 36829 86 019 54 026 34 028 34 349 35 340 36829 35479 102 019 79 027 56 025 41 004 40 342 35479 34088 103 021 85 021 59 012 45 006 53 350 34088 32654 85 022 82 019 61 004 46 007 60 348 32654 31157 55 012 78 022 63 004 50 359 59 345 31157 29589 42 012 65 024 54 008 55 353 52 345 29589 27954 39 018 54 014 44 002 57 353 48 347 27954 26249 42 015 47 000 46 351 53 353 49 347 26249 24471 43 012 41 354 51 348 51 350 48 345 24471 22623 36 011 35 007 50 351 50 349 47 343 22623 20699 28 006 32 016 41 357 47 352 46 344 20699 18698 26 010 26 004 33 008 38 000 35 350 18698 16661 24 005 22 350 29 021 29 008 26 351 16661 14696 19 351 19 353 25 027 25 015 21 354 14696 12908 15 342 17 359 21 020 22 020 19 005 12908 11318 16 336 14 349 19 005 19 020 17 019 11318 9906 16 327 15 337 17 350 16 015 15 034 9906 8650 14 320 16 329 17 340 14 002 13 043 8650 7533 11 326 17 330 16 337 14 353 11 043 7533 6543 10 344 13 339 15 336 12 350 10 038 6543 5668 6 016 9 345 11 341 9 349 8 028 5668 4894 3 044 6 349 6*339 7 339 6 005 4894 4200 2 039 5 010 5*336 6 320 6 346 4200 3585 1 061 4 043 5 335 6 321 6 346 3585 3071 2 151 2*117 5 337 7 326 7 359 3071 2675 3 161 2*154 5 338 7 329 8 005 2675 2403 3 168 2 155 5 337 7 332 7 009 2403 2238 4 174 2 153 5 339 7 333 2*014 2238 2144 4*186 2 152 5 339 5*334 1*246 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography