DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 89.1 - - 94.4 - - - - - 79.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 448 - - 487 - - - - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6923 - - 8575 - - - - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 7236 - - 8615 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 9023 - - 10675 - - - - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1196 - - 1521 - - - - - 4095 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 597 - - 660 - - - - - 8 W* B/S - - - 10 - - 7 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 16 - - - - - 10 BL Wind Direction - - - 220 - - 238 - - - - - 248 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 5 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -5 - - -8 - - - - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -8569 - - -6877 - - - - - -9652 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 17593 - - 17553 - - - - - 11798 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14275 - - -10788 - - - - - -14982 ODpotential blCL - - - 23298 - - 21463 - - - - - 17127 blCL maxRH - - - 17 - - 23 - - - - - 25 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 89.1 - - 94.4 - - - - - 79.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 18.2 - - 23.2 - - - - - 35.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 86.4 - - 91.5 - - - - - 80.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 17.9 - - 23.2 - - - - - 35.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 448 - - 487 - - - - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 6923 - - 8575 - - - - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 3 - - - - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98203 3 300 4 347 8 344 98203 90772 5 216 5 310 9 347 90772 85068 5 164 11 252 7 360 85068 80308 7 193 12 238 5 334 80308 76187 8 165 5 245 4 273 76187 72558 6 264 6 281 8 269 72558 69324 8 293 6 280 6 288 69324 66386 14 299 8 281 7 303 66386 63650 25 273 17 255 7 294 63650 60975 33 255 30 251 18 273 60975 58183 33 246 34 252 34 265 58183 55301 36 251 32 252 36 263 55301 52565 40 255 36 254 37 262 52565 50113 43 251 38 257 42 261 50113 47917 43 252 40 258 48 259 47917 45917 44 256 42 258 52 256 45917 44077 45 260 47 259 53 251 44077 42377 45 259 48 259 53 248 42377 40798 41 255 44 256 50 250 40798 39326 33 251 40 256 47 250 39326 37948 26 252 36 259 43 250 37948 36622 24 255 34 260 41 250 36622 35282 23 257 33 260 40 253 35282 33896 22 261 32 260 40 256 33896 32467 22 259 32 259 39 258 32467 30980 24 257 32 257 38 260 30980 29424 24 252 31 255 37 262 29424 27801 25 255 31 257 35 261 27801 26107 27 258 29 259 35 258 26107 24346 28 257 29 258 34 256 24346 22517 25 258 28 257 34 255 22517 20619 22 262 28 254 33 253 20619 18645 22 262 27 257 31 248 18645 16637 21 265 24 264 29 246 16637 14700 19 265 19 266 28 243 14700 12935 16 265 17 250 26 237 12935 11363 17 250 17*237 25 235 11363 9962 15*214 17*235 23 237 9962 8712 13*216 17 235 22 241 8712 7596 13 217 17 236 23 242 7596 6604 12 218 17 237 25 240 6604 5725 12 220 17 238 26 239 5725 4944 11 220 17 239 26 240 4944 4242 11 222 17 240 26 243 4242 3618 10 223 16 241 25 245 3618 3094 10 224 16 241 24 247 3094 2690 9 225 15 242 22 248 2690 2412 9 225 15 242 18 249 2412 2242 8 225 14 242 15*249 2242 2145 8 225 13 242 10*248 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography