DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/29 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 88.0 - - 94.2 - - 92.7 - - 72.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 298 - - 384 - - 84 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3885 - - 9465 - - 10625 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4675 - - 9210 - - 8849 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5985 - - 11565 - - 12725 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2486 - - 6085 - - 4878 - - 1041 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 429 - - 628 - - 394 - - 31 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 18 - - 9 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 6 - - 8 - - 20 BL Wind Direction - - - 282 - - 298 - - 314 - - 237 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 2 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - 11 - - 4 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -6926 - - -3407 - - -2704 - - -2441 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12912 - - 14973 - - 15430 - - 4586 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8865 - - -4306 - - -3446 - - -6384 ODpotential blCL - - - 14850 - - 15871 - - 16171 - - 8529 blCL maxRH - - - 86 - - 82 - - 86 - - 85 maxRH CAPE - - - 90 - - 200 - - 60 - - 1660 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 88.0 - - 94.2 - - 92.7 - - 72.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.6 - - 35.1 - - 31.6 - - 59.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.8 - - 91.5 - - 91.7 - - 73.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 38.5 - - 35.0 - - 31.6 - - 59.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 298 - - 384 - - 84 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3885 - - 9465 - - 10625 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 43 - - 28 - - 43 - - 38 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96717 35 277 40 279 49 273 48 278 96717 89415 29 284 35 283 34 278 37 283 89415 83890 26 292 28 284 24 282 29 295 83890 79319 17 292 21 296 22 285 25 307 79319 75382 8 296 13 303 18 292 23 312 75382 71908 11 309 12 313 14 313 19 317 71908 68758 14 299 16 310 15 318 20 316 68758 65866 11 289 16 291 14 303 19 292 65866 63197 12 294 15 284 18 298 19 292 63197 60616 23 292 18 286 24 297 23 298 60616 57905 28 278 23 285 30 287 28 290 57905 55065 32 263 32 277 33 268 33 282 55065 52335 31 252 35 269 34 265 37 280 52335 49864 27 249 35 268 37 269 33 280 49864 47647 30 252 34 261 37 275 32 289 47647 45640 34 252 34 258 33 265 34 281 45640 43811 23 256 26 254 26 266 28 261 43811 42135 20 241 21 242 22 254 21 246 42135 40588 20 228 20 231 24 240 21 244 40588 39150 18 222 19 215 23 234 25 238 39150 37809 15 207 25 204 26 226 30 234 37809 36519 16 196 27 205 23 218 28 229 36519 35208 15 193 26 205 21 219 23 233 35208 33846 14 196 24 208 24 222 20 234 33846 32436 15 205 22 206 25 220 20 228 32436 30963 18 212 19 213 25 219 23 222 30963 29418 20 215 18 221 26 224 23 224 29418 27800 19 225 22 231 24 233 19 236 27800 26111 18 236 21 239 20 238 17 253 26111 24356 16 239 13 249 16 225 16 267 24356 22539 12 237 10 247 11 221 13 270 22539 20653 7 237 7 217 7 239 9 241 20653 18691 7 255 7 204 5 247 3 184 18691 16692 5 255 6 227 6 253 6 070 16692 14759 5 262 6 278 6 280 9 048 14759 12994 5 261 7*290 7*291 11 035 12994 11418 6 259 6*289 7*296 10 021 11418 10011 6 263 6 288 8 298 9 354 10011 8753 5 257 6 289 8 301 10 320 8753 7628 5 255 6 292 8 308 13 298 7628 6626 7*270 6 295 8 313 17 284 6626 5737 8*274 6 300 8 319 21 275 5737 4949 7 276 7 302 8 324 25 268 4949 4241 7 279 7 306 8 327 29 261 4241 3613 5 287 7 308 8 330 32 253 3613 3089 4 290 7 309 8 332 34 244 3089 2687 4 295 7 311 8 334 33 240 2687 2409 4 297 7 311 8 334 31 239 2409 2241 3 298 7 311 8 334 27*238 2241 2145 3 298 6 312 7 335 20*237 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography