DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/10 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 33.6 - - 51.9 - - 60.3 - - 58.8 - - 47.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 139 - - 198 - - -16 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1509 - - 3305 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2125 - - 2610 - - 4069 - - 2127 - - 2126 Hcrit BL Top 2142 - - 3609 - - 5405 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 84 - - 1088 - - 1343 - - 3626 - - 398 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 244 - - 355 - - 13 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 10 - - 10 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 319 - - 122 - - 076 - - 088 - - 021 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - 14 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2643 - - -4517 - - -4639 - - -8311 - - -5837 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4785 - - 8126 - - 10044 - - 10454 - - 7980 sfcLCL ODpotential -13604 - - -12776 - - -10842 - - -14819 - - -14753 ODpotential blCL 15746 - - 16385 - - 16247 - - 16962 - - 16896 blCL maxRH 43 - - 38 - - 36 - - 24 - - 25 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 33.6 - - 51.9 - - 60.3 - - 58.8 - - 47.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.0 - - 24.3 - - 24.1 - - 20.9 - - 21.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.9 - - 50.7 - - 58.7 - - 59.4 - - 52.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.6 - - 23.8 - - 23.7 - - 20.7 - - 21.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 139 - - 198 - - -16 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 42 - - 1509 - - 3305 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96542 36 267 45 259 48 265 51 273 50 277 96542 89332 28 273 30 286 28 286 31 282 30 284 89332 83814 16 267 16 284 18 279 16 272 23 291 83814 79261 11 305 14 262 13 282 10 276 20 290 79261 75322 13 300 18 294 16 289 15 282 11 284 75322 71806 19 278 17 273 18 277 18 291 14 309 71806 68611 22 287 13 263 18 277 21 282 19 305 68611 65685 20 289 11 286 16 280 16 302 14 287 65685 62970 21 293 14 288 16 292 17 314 13 335 62970 60337 17 284 16 308 21 315 23 316 24 315 60337 57591 16 305 22 326 21 324 22 299 23 308 57591 54730 27 315 20 331 19 344 13 300 20 332 54730 51984 24 310 20 334 26 334 22 336 28 344 51984 49496 20 318 24 334 29 326 34 332 31 351 49496 47255 27 330 32 337 26 340 34 333 33 355 47255 45222 33 327 35 331 28 339 27 348 34 350 45222 43372 35 307 27 304 26 299 17 349 30 004 43372 41683 28 283 16 287 14 267 6 009 23 030 41683 40123 16 291 17 007 15 050 25 053 26 052 40123 38666 22 341 31 352 32 028 43 033 36 045 38666 37299 27 335 18 354 24 026 44 020 37 034 37299 35987 27 312 18 041 12 050 30 016 34 040 35987 34662 19 294 34 064 25 074 21 037 34 056 34662 33302 14 360 50 062 47 070 30 067 48 070 33302 31910 29 038 53 057 58 064 45 074 61 071 31910 30468 39 045 51 057 56 061 51 071 65 070 30468 28956 35 038 51 059 48 059 48 067 63 073 28956 27371 30 030 51 063 42 057 46 066 61 078 27371 25714 26 027 47 064 38 057 45 066 57 082 25714 23987 22 028 41 064 36 057 42 067 53 084 23987 22189 20 032 35 066 35 058 38 067 49 081 22189 20316 19 034 31 072 34 060 35 065 45 072 20316 18363 19 036 25 070 31 059 32 063 43 065 18363 16369 25 041 23 056 29 058 31 060 38 062 16369 14447 30 041 29 045 29 055 31 058 33 061 14447 12696 30 043 34 043 30 052 29 060 30 064 12696 11136 29 050 34 046 30 056 28 072 27 072 11136 9749 25 057 31 058 29 069 28 083 26 079 9749 8514 21 059 29 071 29 080 29 089 27 085 8514 7416 20 066 28 082 27 089 28 095 29 093 7416 6442 21 081 29 093 23 093 28 098 32 100 6442 5583 24 095 30 102 17*089 26 100 34 106 5583 4825 27 103 27 107 13*084 23 099 34 109 4825 4147 24 106 22*111 11 079 19 098 29 110 4147 3547 15 107 14*119 10 076 16 095 20 110 3547 3046 6 100 11 122 10 074 14 093 12 110 3046 2661 3 076 9 124 9 072 12 092 8 107 2661 2396 5 342 8 124 8 071 11 091 5 082 2396 2235 6*327 7 124 8 070 9 089 4*056 2235 2143 5*319 6 124 7 069 7*088 3*021 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography