DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/02 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 83.5 - - 88.5 - - 88.5 - - 79.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 459 - - 467 - - 155 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7908 - - 11450 - - 10423 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 8041 - - 10945 - - 9332 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 10008 - - 13550 - - 12523 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3627 - - 1645 - - 2724 - - 2350 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 628 - - 715 - - 480 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 14 - - 38 - - 49 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 3 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 140 - - 132 - - 130 - - 020 Direction Wind Shear - - - 14 - - 5 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -7 - - -17 - - -20 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1595 - - -1179 - - -3034 - - -11236 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11604 - - 14730 - - 15557 - - 13382 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3477 - - -4002 - - -5559 - - -15917 ODpotential blCL - - - 13485 - - 17552 - - 18082 - - 18062 blCL maxRH - - - 59 - - 66 - - 81 - - 65 maxRH CAPE - - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 83.5 - - 88.5 - - 88.5 - - 79.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.6 - - 30.2 - - 26.6 - - 27.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 80.8 - - 85.5 - - 87.0 - - 82.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 39.5 - - 30.1 - - 26.5 - - 27.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 459 - - 467 - - 155 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 7908 - - 11450 - - 10423 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 22 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97837 24 224 27 232 29 234 24 242 97837 90390 25 225 26 239 24 242 17 244 90390 84656 19 218 22 249 22 256 15 261 84656 79904 5 287 8 234 11 266 11 249 79904 75835 16 288 11 263 14 307 12 294 75835 72274 18 262 19 259 18 297 16 308 72274 69053 20 281 19 271 21 286 22 287 69053 66093 20 289 18 279 23 273 24 273 66093 63356 20 298 17 281 22 272 25 278 63356 60702 23 289 23 290 24 288 27 292 60702 57926 36 276 39 279 37 281 37 288 57926 55054 42 276 45 276 42 277 44 280 55054 52322 51 285 54 285 52 289 53 287 52322 49853 64 285 68 286 64 289 64 291 49853 47633 74 282 76 285 77 287 76 289 47633 45646 78 281 83 284 94 285 97 286 45646 43855 76 283 86 286 99 286 106 287 43855 42204 74 287 88 290 98 288 112 289 42204 40660 73 290 85 292 92 290 111 290 40660 39208 69 288 79 292 87 292 104 292 39208 37841 66 284 73 289 80 291 94 295 37841 36526 65 286 69 286 72 290 81 297 36526 35196 61 288 65 287 67 288 70 294 35196 33820 54 287 57 291 65 287 61 291 33820 32398 47 287 52 291 62 289 57 287 32398 30918 43 287 50 290 55 292 57 285 30918 29371 44 288 45 289 48 291 54 286 29371 27755 43 292 41 292 44 294 47 288 27755 26067 36 295 38 295 41 295 42 287 26067 24308 31 298 33 294 34 294 40 286 24308 22482 30 298 28 294 29 292 31 284 22482 20587 28 301 25 293 22 292 23 280 20587 18620 22 310 20 297 14 293 15 270 18620 16621 16 310 13 284 9 269 8 245 16621 14703 11 309 7*264 12 209 17 201 14703 12958 5 310 4*172 9*200 14 195 12958 11397 5*296 4 166 8*198 10 189 11397 10000 3*267 4 158 6 194 6 170 10000 8750 3 185 4 149 4 180 5 143 8750 7631 5 153 4 132 2 140 5 119 7631 6634 8 144 4 123 2 100 5 103 6634 5749 10 139 4 116 3 074 5 088 5749 4963 13 134 4 110 3 063 6 077 4963 4255 13 134 4 106 4 057 6 063 4255 3626 13 133 4 102 4 051 6 051 3626 3099 14 133 4 099 4 049 7 040 3099 2693 13 132 4 097 5 047 7 032 2693 2412 13 132 4 096 5 047 7 027 2412 2242 13 132 4 095 5 046 6*024 2242 2145 11 131 4 094 4 045 5*020 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography