DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/27 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 61.5 - - 63.3 - - 62.2 - - 58.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 45 - - 64 - - -6 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2268 - - 2588 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2127 - - 2829 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4368 - - 4688 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2126 - - 3049 - - 6440 - - 2444 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 207 - - 235 - - 18 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 5 - - 1 - - 3 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 9 - - 5 - - 1 BL Wind Direction - - - 229 - - 260 - - 303 - - 275 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 7 - - 8 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1029 - - 841 - - -1834 - - -911 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3340 - - 3847 - - 3979 - - 3056 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 138 - - 25 - - -2836 - - -2694 ODpotential blCL - - - 4230 - - 4663 - - 4980 - - 4838 blCL maxRH - - - 96 - - 94 - - 94 - - 98 maxRH CAPE - - - 80 - - 130 - - 120 - - 120 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 61.5 - - 63.3 - - 62.2 - - 58.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 54.1 - - 53.6 - - 52.0 - - 52.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.0 - - 62.6 - - 62.6 - - 59.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 52.9 - - 52.7 - - 51.6 - - 52.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 45 - - 64 - - -6 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2268 - - 2588 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 85 - - 76 - - 77 - - 92 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96264 18 254 34 264 30 274 30 280 96264 89166 13 285 23 276 21 289 22 297 89166 83686 18 313 21 309 12 283 21 295 83686 79148 18 307 22 312 14 321 14 312 79148 75245 10 287 15 322 18 326 15 332 75245 71794 10 287 11 342 15 307 25 336 71794 68651 14 293 10 283 10 280 14 323 68651 65735 11 286 6 224 10 269 14 243 65735 63020 19 257 19 229 19 252 26 252 63020 60379 30 242 30 240 32 244 36 239 60379 57623 39 250 38 250 41 243 44 238 57623 54769 63 247 60 243 56 247 54 241 54769 52043 69 237 69 235 73 247 60 244 52043 49580 73 240 76 237 78 243 73 243 49580 47373 80 241 82 237 88 242 82 240 47373 45375 85 240 85 240 91 238 84 233 45375 43542 89 239 90 242 85 239 76 247 43542 41854 91 238 94 242 88 245 93 257 41854 40300 88 235 94 239 98 250 107 258 40300 38850 83 234 89 235 105 252 114 258 38850 37488 82 235 86 237 102 249 117 257 37488 36178 82 236 87 240 99 246 109 253 36178 34852 79 238 87 243 94 243 100 245 34852 33480 76 238 85 244 93 243 97 248 33480 32063 76 236 83 244 94 247 92 253 32063 30586 77 233 83 247 86 245 85 253 30586 29040 78 233 82 250 84 250 82 251 29040 27421 74 239 78 249 79 253 83 249 27421 25730 66 244 75 246 74 248 81 248 25730 23969 53 241 70 245 69 247 74 247 23969 22146 49 234 62 242 63 246 67 247 22146 20256 53 236 57 243 57 246 59 249 20256 18296 52 247 56 246 53 246 54 250 18296 16302 46 251 55 248 50 241 47 249 16302 14384 41 249 53 249 49 240 43 244 14384 12644 38 243 48 248 48 243 40 237 12644 11100 38 240 41 245 43 243 33 231 11100 9732 35 238 29 240 30 242 21 231 9732 8518 26 236 23 237 17 236 10 241 8518 7437 16 237 18 234 15 240 10 264 7437 6474 13 237 15 234 13 245 11 273 6474 5619 14 236 13 239 12 249 12 275 5619 4860 13*233 12*244 11 256 12 273 4860 4176 12*229 11*253 10 263 13 271 4176 3570 10 228 10 258 9 271 12 269 3570 3062 8 228 9 261 8 281 9 268 3062 2671 8 230 9 263 7 289 6 272 2671 2401 7 230 8 264 7 296 3 277 2401 2237 7 230 8 265 6*299 2*277 2237 2144 6 229 7 265 5*303 1*275 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography