DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 73.9 - - 81.5 - - - - - 65.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 95 - - 130 - - - - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 728 - - 2907 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2128 - - 3566 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2828 - - 5007 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1239 - - 1960 - - - - - 193 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 168 - - 296 - - - - - 22 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 47 - - - - - 41 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 1 - - - - - 0 BL Wind Direction - - - 163 - - 251 - - - - - 031 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 2 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -2 - - - - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -9854 - - -10254 - - - - - -9528 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12683 - - 15261 - - - - - 11673 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -17035 - - -15944 - - - - - -18480 ODpotential blCL - - - 19863 - - 20951 - - - - - 20624 blCL maxRH - - - 52 - - 53 - - - - - 23 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 73.9 - - 81.5 - - - - - 65.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 26.4 - - 21.9 - - - - - 22.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 73.0 - - 80.3 - - - - - 71.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 26.2 - - 21.6 - - - - - 22.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 95 - - 130 - - - - - 3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 728 - - 2907 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - - - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96431 38 270 38 256 45 288 96431 89250 26 293 30 270 36 285 89250 83724 25 309 24 278 28 272 83724 79155 25 296 20 293 23 263 79155 75216 23 264 23 298 15 301 75216 71756 14 246 20 282 18 318 71756 68682 6 296 14 254 15 280 68682 65892 13 300 9 254 13 260 65892 63307 20 276 13 273 14 265 63307 60800 15 252 15 258 14 255 60800 58170 18 285 17 252 19 254 58170 55419 31 293 25 272 28 244 55419 52764 36 278 36 278 36 254 52764 50350 37 282 41 265 40 262 50350 48176 44 288 38 263 41 259 48176 46188 45 288 38 273 40 259 46188 44347 40 289 44 275 41 266 44347 42634 38 291 43 272 45 271 42634 41035 34 289 37 269 46 271 41035 39545 29 278 32 262 42 268 39545 38155 29 273 31 261 36 266 38155 36825 27 271 29 258 29 269 36825 35486 26 267 27 257 26 277 35486 34105 28 269 28 262 26 276 34105 32679 29 274 28 273 27 277 32679 31190 28 278 30 287 26 277 31190 29630 27 282 29 291 25 268 29630 27997 26 281 26 286 22 257 27997 26293 24 279 24 276 19 248 26293 24520 22 281 22 269 17 249 24520 22681 22 283 22 266 15 260 22681 20768 21 283 22 266 14 269 20768 18774 18 280 21 268 14 268 18774 16738 14 264 19 271 15 262 16738 14775 13 246 17 262 14 256 14775 12988 12 240 16 250 12 254 12988 11399 12 247 14 249 11 255 11399 9985 11 249 12 253 8 247 9985 8723 9 248 10 257 6 233 8723 7599 7 241 8 255 5 213 7599 6599 7 223 6 245 4 194 6599 5715 7 208 4*231 4 182 5715 4931 6 190 2*230 3 173 4931 4227 6 176 2 234 2 143 4227 3604 7 168 1 244 2 079 3604 3082 7*166 1 261 4 041 3082 2682 6*165 1 282 7 029 2682 2406 5 163 1 293 6 030 2406 2239 5 162 1 296 3 042 2239 2144 4 162 1 302 0*031 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography