DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 91.4 - - 97.7 - - 97.9 - - 90.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 252 - - 370 - - 106 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3649 - - 8311 - - 7213 - - 46 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4440 - - 8263 - - 6567 - - 2129 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5749 - - 10411 - - 9313 - - 2146 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3361 - - 2244 - - 3562 - - 6797 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 401 - - 596 - - 377 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 91 - - 31 - - 12 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 030 - - 283 - - 309 - - 340 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -9 - - -4 - - -10 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3888 - - -1000 - - -2716 - - -7876 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9637 - - 11412 - - 12030 - - 10022 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -6628 - - -2011 - - -4435 - - -10883 ODpotential blCL - - - 12377 - - 12422 - - 13748 - - 13029 blCL maxRH - - - 80 - - 80 - - 79 - - 77 maxRH CAPE - - - 60 - - 120 - - 20 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 91.4 - - 97.7 - - 97.9 - - 90.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 56.4 - - 54.7 - - 52.3 - - 54.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 89.4 - - 95.1 - - 96.7 - - 93.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 56.0 - - 54.4 - - 52.0 - - 53.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 252 - - 370 - - 106 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3649 - - 8311 - - 7213 - - 46 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 21 - - 19 - - 17 - - 6 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98793 29 103 27 114 23 104 25 076 98793 91368 33 106 25 105 19 094 27 090 91368 85613 24 102 21 099 19 094 25 096 85613 80838 21 092 26 104 21 102 20 110 80838 76765 20 094 18 097 26 104 15 095 76765 73183 17 098 13 104 19 087 16 092 73183 69933 10 078 13 116 14 115 11 078 69933 66953 8 096 11 112 9 115 8 103 66953 64210 4 115 7 166 3 152 7 081 64210 61581 12 193 9 209 6 234 1 054 61581 58870 9 200 11 227 10 241 3 264 58870 56100 9 210 16 218 16 233 11 247 56100 53491 11 254 17 246 18 237 17 251 53491 51145 22 250 22 249 18 247 19 250 51145 49020 23 244 23 251 20 254 19 251 49020 47062 25 254 26 260 25 264 23 265 47062 45245 29 265 31 262 33 266 29 269 45245 43553 39 275 33 262 34 261 32 264 43553 41964 50 274 33 257 34 258 33 261 41964 40463 50 268 34 243 35 256 34 264 40463 39042 41 258 35 242 38 254 41 271 39042 37666 40 240 35 243 38 255 39 267 37666 36270 39 226 37 243 36 251 33 258 36270 34826 34 221 39 238 36 244 29 252 34826 33334 29 225 34 237 31 245 27 248 33334 31781 25 233 25 229 24 233 22 238 31781 30159 24 233 19 232 18 221 22 214 30159 28472 23 225 18 226 15 217 20 207 28472 26719 21 215 17 224 13 213 17 208 26719 24902 19 216 17 223 12 217 14 212 24902 23021 14 220 14 219 11 205 11 201 23021 21073 10 223 9 216 8 184 10 168 21073 19053 6 221 6 179 7 158 10 138 19053 17000 3 220 6 157 7 147 11 117 17000 15024 3 146 9 136 10 136 11 115 15024 13224 3 147 8 141 8 134 9 125 13224 11620 5 204 5*172 2 136 4 141 11620 10189 9 224 2*247 3*303 4 325 10189 8908 8 227 3 262 5*304 10 320 8908 7763 5 221 3 272 5 305 11 318 7763 6743 3 221 4 276 5 306 11 316 6743 5837 1*222 4 284 6 308 10 316 5837 5032 0*042 4 288 6 308 10 319 5032 4308 1 041 4 291 6 312 9 322 4308 3664 1 032 4 295 6 312 8 327 3664 3124 1 027 4 297 6 313 8 333 3124 2708 1 022 4 298 6 314 7 337 2708 2420 1 026 4 300 6 315 7 341 2420 2246 1 028 4 302 6 314 5*342 2246 2146 1 027 4 301 5 316 3*340 2146 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography