DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 10/25 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 78.9 - - 84.2 - - 81.2 - - 69.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 231 - - 252 - - -7 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2862 - - 5525 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3808 - - 5862 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4962 - - 7625 - - 2145 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2484 - - 1942 - - 6882 - - 212 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 356 - - 457 - - 9 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 60 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 5 - - 6 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 126 - - 340 - - 340 - - 047 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -4 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -6421 - - -5853 - - -11282 - - -8796 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 11384 - - 13478 - - 13427 - - 10941 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11823 - - -10765 - - -16584 - - -16531 ODpotential blCL - - - 16785 - - 18390 - - 18729 - - 18675 blCL maxRH - - - 31 - - 28 - - 25 - - 26 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 78.9 - - 84.2 - - 81.2 - - 69.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 36.4 - - 32.2 - - 29.8 - - 30.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 77.2 - - 82.3 - - 81.6 - - 74.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 36.3 - - 32.1 - - 29.7 - - 30.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 231 - - 252 - - -7 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2862 - - 5525 - - 45 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97579 42 268 41 259 48 264 48 273 97579 90272 34 260 35 258 38 262 38 271 90272 84641 23 261 30 253 30 257 34 273 84641 79931 21 262 26 254 26 267 30 276 79931 75851 18 264 18 264 21 276 21 272 75851 72258 18 280 13 281 17 284 13 287 72258 69029 17 280 12 274 16 274 13 293 69029 66081 17 272 14 268 15 280 15 289 66081 63362 18 266 18 272 17 299 20 301 63362 60741 19 263 19 278 21 289 25 294 60741 58014 21 268 25 280 26 281 27 284 58014 55189 24 271 31 279 31 280 33 280 55189 52491 29 281 36 281 35 277 36 267 52491 50071 34 285 40 282 35 285 39 284 50071 47915 38 286 42 282 43 292 36 278 47915 45955 37 281 40 279 40 286 32 310 45955 44151 31 292 33 280 29 289 41 325 44151 42480 32 290 26 294 29 309 46 342 42480 40921 29 268 23 294 29 311 42 348 40921 39461 10 260 14 272 28 316 31 344 39461 38089 5 298 5 267 18 306 28 334 38089 36770 9 288 9 297 6 301 18 325 36770 35435 10 289 10 287 5 331 13 329 35435 34052 11 309 9 300 4 324 13 332 34052 32621 12 310 9 302 4 295 12 334 32621 31131 13 300 10 294 6 276 10 336 31131 29568 12 296 10 283 7 259 8 324 29568 27936 12 299 13 279 8 264 10 310 27936 26230 17 297 17 283 10 303 13 327 26230 24455 22 307 17 310 9 339 8 352 24455 22615 23 316 16 326 8 334 6 356 22615 20706 20 327 15 341 8 323 6 322 20706 18719 17 335 14 329 11 308 12 320 18719 16689 15 329 14 318 13 305 15 333 16689 14731 15 322 13 321 10 314 12 340 14731 12950 14 326 12 327 8 336 8 347 12950 11368 12 336 9 333 6 340 5 344 11368 9963 9 350 7 345 4 334 4 341 9963 8711 9 003 5*353 5 321 5 325 8711 7594 10 008 5*343 6 318 8 304 7594 6600 8 019 5 340 7 321 8 302 6600 5719 5*041 5 339 8 326 7 310 5719 4937 2*071 5 338 8 330 5 322 4937 4234 1 118 5 338 9 334 5 344 4234 3610 1 141 5 340 9 336 5 009 3610 3088 1 145 5 340 9 338 7 020 3088 2686 1 148 5 341 9 339 7 023 2686 2409 1 152 5 341 9 340 7 026 2409 2240 1 157 5 342 8*340 4 041 2240 2144 1 155 5 342 6*340 2*047 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography