DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/15 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0956z - - 1001z - - - - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 73.6 - - 82.3 - - - - - 69.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 212 - - 224 - - - - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1312 - - 3846 - - - - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2673 - - 4536 - - - - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3412 - - 5946 - - - - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1483 - - 2415 - - - - - 167 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 269 - - 392 - - - - - 9 W* B/S - - - 13 - - 11 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 6 - - - - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 072 - - 067 - - - - - 001 Direction Wind Shear - - - 1 - - 9 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 2 - - -10 - - - - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -6556 - - -6187 - - - - - -6654 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 9969 - - 12134 - - - - - 8798 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13818 - - -11577 - - - - - -14180 ODpotential blCL - - - 17230 - - 17523 - - - - - 16324 blCL maxRH - - - 29 - - 30 - - - - - 38 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 73.6 - - 82.3 - - - - - 69.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 37.6 - - 36.4 - - - - - 39.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 72.1 - - 80.6 - - - - - 73.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.0 - - 35.8 - - - - - 38.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 212 - - 224 - - - - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1312 - - 3846 - - - - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 5 - - - - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97793 22 264 34 248 23 291 97793 90459 19 268 27 263 17 288 90459 84844 15 270 17 272 10 289 84844 80190 8 256 8 277 5 307 80190 76175 2 134 1 061 8 325 76175 72635 7 081 7 091 6 326 72635 69446 5 028 6 065 10 064 69446 66528 6 015 8 078 10 062 66528 63829 2 151 2 058 8 042 63829 61232 11 157 9 202 11 300 61232 58544 3 267 6 224 10 246 58544 55748 15 270 15 269 7 254 55748 53062 18 269 20 266 14 268 53062 50637 21 268 18 267 21 253 50637 48448 26 271 21 277 20 236 48448 46436 31 266 30 274 21 249 46436 44570 32 258 35 260 31 252 44570 42836 31 249 38 249 40 242 42836 41214 31 240 38 243 44 237 41214 39693 28 240 37 242 46 234 39693 38266 26 245 38 238 46 232 38266 36895 27 244 37 233 45 230 36895 35512 30 251 31 239 38 227 35512 34090 31 278 26 268 30 219 34090 32633 28 283 26 272 27 214 32633 31126 24 273 22 261 24 221 31126 29557 15 261 18 244 20 228 29557 27926 6 245 15 214 17 214 27926 26231 7 228 12 223 18 199 26231 24470 8 252 11 250 18 193 24470 22641 7 274 11 242 14 187 22641 20737 6 272 11 232 10 195 20737 18753 6 281 10 229 9 192 18753 16728 6 278 7 236 8 170 16728 14776 5 276 5 233 7 136 14776 12999 3 245 5 198 10 106 12999 11419 2 176 6 167 12 124 11419 10011 7 132 8 151 16 138 10011 8754 9 125 10 137 19 132 8754 7630 11 115 12 112 19 128 7630 6629 12 111 11*104 20 124 6629 5741 13 113 10*099 22 118 5741 4953 14 112 8 092 25 113 4953 4245 12 113 6 071 28 108 4245 3616 8*111 6 051 27 103 3616 3091 4*082 6 041 21 095 3091 2687 4 074 6 037 14 078 2687 2409 4 067 6 034 10 048 2409 2240 4 063 6 033 8 026 2240 2144 3 063 5 033 5*001 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography