DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 01/07 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.9 - - 54.0 - - 51.8 - - 49.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 56 - - 44 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1470 - - 1338 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2127 - - 2126 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3570 - - 3438 - - 2143 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3620 - - 3250 - - 4054 - - 2342 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 186 - - 169 - - 34 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 3 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction - - - 258 - - 116 - - 345 - - 176 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -2 - - 2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 694 - - 819 - - -87 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2876 - - 2619 - - 2230 - - 2143 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -387 - - 46 - - -707 - - -946 ODpotential blCL - - - 3957 - - 3392 - - 2850 - - 3089 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 10 - - 90 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.9 - - 54.0 - - 51.8 - - 49.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 49.7 - - 49.8 - - 49.2 - - 48.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 54.3 - - 53.5 - - 51.5 - - 50.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 48.8 - - 48.7 - - 48.6 - - 47.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 56 - - 44 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1470 - - 1338 - - 43 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 100 - - 99 - - 102 - - 80 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96422 33 250 41 261 27 288 18 291 96422 89206 21 277 26 271 26 277 29 298 89206 83684 17 288 18 309 13 271 20 292 83684 79114 16 291 10 285 9 277 13 296 79114 75181 17 297 8 291 10 297 13 297 75181 71701 12 295 9 263 12 271 15 272 71701 68544 16 286 10 259 10 257 19 251 68544 65634 19 238 19 246 17 243 21 234 65634 62923 22 228 25 243 24 239 26 248 62923 60281 31 243 33 247 35 253 35 236 60281 57486 44 236 45 237 40 248 43 242 57486 54556 51 233 50 237 45 247 47 252 54556 51766 53 240 55 247 53 254 51 259 51766 49273 59 243 61 251 58 256 52 261 49273 47051 65 242 69 248 60 257 65 263 47051 45041 70 240 68 242 66 252 69 263 45041 43207 81 239 71 239 66 247 66 266 43207 41512 89 238 74 232 62 245 66 268 41512 39929 95 238 79 231 62 245 64 271 39929 38442 101 236 86 232 67 245 62 276 38442 37043 105 230 97 232 69 241 63 279 37043 35694 106 224 104 225 68 235 63 277 35694 34329 100 222 105 218 64 231 55 277 34329 32925 93 220 100 215 65 230 45 281 32925 31484 90 221 86 217 60 223 41 284 31484 30003 86 224 70 218 42 222 38 299 30003 28474 76 227 63 217 35 229 38 299 28474 26890 64 225 59 217 39 219 30 272 26890 25244 57 220 50 216 39 213 16 265 25244 23534 50 221 40 218 37 207 11 282 23534 21764 45 226 34 226 30 199 14 302 21764 19925 41 228 31 233 19 179 16 309 19925 18013 35 226 24 233 9 150 12 316 18013 16067 30 225 20 223 1 148 7 020 16067 14191 29 224 16 235 6 312 9 347 14191 12484 28 218 14 251 9 306 17 321 12484 10966 26 209 15 242 11 307 17 320 10966 9617 19 191 16 215 12 300 13 351 9617 8413 11 139 15 185 12 290 14 020 8413 7341 6 116 12 149 13 281 7 035 7341 6388 2 172 10 136 11 274 1 022 6388 5546 5 249 8 132 8 275 5 269 5546 4800 9 258 7 132 5 289 8 265 4800 4131 11*258 6 130 3 342 9 259 4131 3538 12*258 4*124 4 007 7 248 3538 3041 12 258 4*120 5 002 5 227 3041 2659 11 258 4 116 5 351 4 210 2659 2395 11 258 3 115 4 348 3 195 2395 2235 10 258 3 115 4*346 2*181 2235 2143 9 257 3 113 4*345 2*176 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography