DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/22 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.0 - - 69.0 - - 73.6 - - 61.4 - - 56.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 140 - - 59 - - -6 - - 7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2070 - - 6935 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 3029 - - 5720 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4170 - - 9035 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 152 - - 4243 - - 4997 - - 2632 - - 2181 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 273 - - 305 - - 27 - - 29 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 17 - - 18 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 171 - - 147 - - 184 - - 036 - - 007 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -3 - - 24 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1719 - - -4038 - - -492 - - -595 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3862 - - 8208 - - 9528 - - 2739 - - 2143 sfcLCL ODpotential -8567 - - -7061 - - -1230 - - -2321 - - -236 ODpotential blCL 10710 - - 11231 - - 10265 - - 4465 - - 2379 blCL maxRH 55 - - 75 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 130 - - 940 - - 400 CAPE Temp@2m 51.0 - - 69.0 - - 73.6 - - 61.4 - - 56.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 41.7 - - 40.4 - - 39.1 - - 56.4 - - 55.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.9 - - 68.1 - - 73.1 - - 61.5 - - 55.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.1 - - 40.0 - - 38.9 - - 55.4 - - 55.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 140 - - 59 - - -6 - - 7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2070 - - 6935 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 1 - - 100 - - 101 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 10 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96520 13 277 20 281 27 261 25 296 24 290 96520 89289 8 257 12 271 9 299 12 290 12 316 89289 83799 3 322 8 194 10 304 11 305 12 338 83799 79267 12 324 0 069 5 230 10 285 7 299 79267 75363 8 318 7 269 2 348 4 202 6 226 75363 71918 5 248 12 229 9 285 6 021 0 224 71918 68785 4 199 5 184 9 247 5 269 8 280 68785 65884 6 280 8 256 10 258 10 237 12 241 65884 63187 21 241 21 229 19 238 19 248 18 236 63187 60566 23 230 30 216 33 234 32 234 35 239 60566 57824 31 238 32 234 36 227 41 240 41 231 57824 54960 44 231 44 242 42 234 49 234 41 238 54960 52198 48 225 53 239 47 234 47 228 45 237 52198 49681 53 236 57 234 50 230 42 231 39 238 49681 47412 66 239 61 233 51 234 50 243 54 242 47412 45364 74 235 67 231 63 232 61 234 61 228 45364 43497 72 233 72 226 69 228 65 224 57 223 43497 41770 74 232 74 219 70 221 54 218 63 233 41770 40165 74 229 70 219 72 222 57 229 74 231 40165 38665 78 233 84 226 91 224 74 229 83 223 38665 37258 94 233 104 222 108 217 101 222 84 217 37258 35904 98 228 105 215 111 213 117 214 83 214 35904 34540 98 225 102 212 114 214 110 210 82 212 34540 33136 98 223 105 213 115 211 114 209 78 209 33136 31701 93 220 107 215 115 210 118 208 71 206 31701 30225 87 219 105 216 112 211 109 205 58 204 30225 28699 83 216 97 214 106 210 101 201 42 190 28699 27120 79 211 89 208 97 207 79 197 41 169 27120 25473 74 208 86 203 92 205 56 187 42 167 25473 23755 68 206 78 202 85 203 51 181 41 166 23755 21970 61 203 66 198 72 200 48 179 42 169 21970 20113 55 203 56 192 60 192 44 170 43 174 20113 18184 48 202 49 186 55 184 43 169 44 174 18184 16220 42 199 44 181 49 178 43 170 44 179 16220 14327 38 194 40 177 36 170 42 169 46 183 14327 12606 32 187 36 176 30 164 37 166 47 187 12606 11077 26 178 34 176 29 165 29 165 45 192 11077 9716 23 172 33 178 24*167 22 173 40 195 9716 8499 22 169 32 177 22*171 16 185 30 191 8499 7414 23 166 30 174 21 174 11 198 22 180 7414 6449 24 165 28 169 19 180 9 211 16 172 6449 5596 25 162 25 164 18 184 7 219 8 176 5596 4839 26 157 22 157 17 188 5 227 3 187 4839 4160 28 149 21*150 17 190 3 232 3 190 4160 3557 31 142 20*148 16 192 2 257 4 191 3557 3054 29 139 18 147 16 194 4 006 1 325 3054 2666 23 137 17 147 15 195 7 025 3 360 2666 2399 15 140 16 147 15 196 8 032 3 005 2399 2236 9*148 15 147 14 196 8*036 3 006 2236 2143 5*171 12 147 11 197 6*036 3*007 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography