DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 02/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 52.3 - - 59.3 - - 64.2 - - 63.8 - - 56.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 204 - - 341 - - 70 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 4885 - - 7796 - - 6833 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 5264 - - 7802 - - 5844 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 6985 - - 9896 - - 8933 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 4661 - - 3544 - - 1851 - - 2200 - - 679 Hgt.Variab. W* 24 - - 409 - - 566 - - 320 - - 8 W* B/S 1 - - 5 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 16 - - 13 - - 12 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 257 - - 261 - - 254 - - 248 - - 262 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - 15 - - 16 - - -6 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -575 - - -570 - - -154 - - -1110 - - -6511 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2719 - - 7556 - - 10051 - - 10044 - - 8656 sfcLCL ODpotential -1719 - - -1199 - - -675 - - -4070 - - -11592 ODpotential blCL 3862 - - 8184 - - 10571 - - 13003 - - 13736 blCL maxRH 100 - - 95 - - 77 - - 73 - - 71 maxRH CAPE 110 - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 52.3 - - 59.3 - - 64.2 - - 63.8 - - 56.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 47.8 - - 33.6 - - 27.3 - - 27.0 - - 26.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.8 - - 57.9 - - 62.1 - - 63.2 - - 59.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.9 - - 33.4 - - 27.1 - - 26.9 - - 25.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 204 - - 341 - - 70 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 4885 - - 7796 - - 6833 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 82 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96641 16 096 8 101 13 111 2 066 6 240 96641 89466 19 111 14 138 12 116 10 119 7 126 89466 83943 12 127 13 130 14 149 2 169 7 098 83943 79338 10 128 6 090 9 128 8 127 7 160 79338 75354 4 178 6 162 3 259 3 189 6 148 75354 71823 4 301 2 217 7 225 8 210 10 229 71823 68648 14 270 17 257 15 240 9 252 11 274 68648 65740 5 216 16 192 19 277 11 254 14 300 65740 63025 25 235 39 238 46 252 32 259 30 278 63025 60386 54 225 56 222 45 228 41 240 38 253 60386 57636 47 240 42 222 41 247 42 256 44 253 57636 54779 52 253 54 253 62 256 63 256 65 258 54779 52056 62 256 71 254 75 251 74 252 78 256 52056 49606 75 265 78 257 78 253 77 259 82 259 49606 47396 91 265 85 262 87 261 92 265 93 264 47396 45375 102 260 100 261 105 259 109 261 108 265 45375 43521 108 256 116 255 122 255 123 257 122 262 43521 41830 115 258 123 255 137 257 138 257 141 259 41830 40283 126 260 135 263 149 260 145 257 152 256 40283 38839 136 257 146 265 152 260 141 259 144 257 38839 37472 141 254 149 262 149 259 139 263 133 260 37472 36149 142 254 146 260 147 259 142 261 134 266 36149 34807 139 254 144 260 145 258 143 258 135 265 34807 33415 135 256 141 260 143 260 143 260 136 261 33415 31971 131 257 139 259 143 262 142 263 138 259 31971 30465 129 255 138 256 141 261 140 262 134 257 30465 28887 130 253 138 255 139 260 138 259 136 260 28887 27237 132 252 136 253 135 259 137 259 134 261 27237 25515 130 253 130 252 131 255 129 257 129 259 25515 23735 124 254 122 251 123 252 121 255 116 258 23735 21913 115 253 115 250 114 252 112 256 91 262 21913 20044 105 250 108 251 108 255 86 262 70 267 20044 18116 96 249 98 252 85 260 52 271 51 269 18116 16159 84 250 80 255 53 275 39 288 40 269 16159 14275 68 245 57 259 40 295 34 295 32 266 14275 12561 52 232 39 262 33 297 27 296 21 261 12561 11041 40 230 29 264 22*285 18 282 13 227 11041 9693 33 232 25 258 14*264 14*255 12 215 9693 8490 29 240 24 257 14 260 13*252 12 237 8490 7414 27 261 21*261 13 258 13 251 12 243 7414 6455 26 280 18*264 13 255 13 250 12 247 6455 5605 26 285 17 264 13 253 13 249 12 252 5605 4849 25 282 16 263 12 251 13 248 12 256 4849 4168 24 278 16 262 12 250 12 247 12 260 4168 3564 23 275 15 260 12 248 12 246 12 265 3564 3058 21 271 15 259 11 247 12 245 11 269 3058 2668 18 266 14 259 11 247 11 246 10 272 2668 2400 15 262 13 258 11 246 11 245 8 272 2400 2236 12*260 13 258 10 246 10 245 5*267 2236 2144 8*257 11 257 9 245 9 245 4*262 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography