DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 02/16 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 70.1 - - 74.7 - - 71.1 - - 63.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 139 - - 187 - - 10 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3490 - - 4687 - - 3142 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4023 - - 5069 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5590 - - 6787 - - 5242 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1279 - - 1855 - - 3075 - - 3605 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 322 - - 392 - - 131 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 16 - - 22 - - 21 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 206 - - 211 - - 223 - - 187 Direction Wind Shear - - - 8 - - 8 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 16 - - -11 - - -10 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4954 - - -5466 - - -5887 - - -7433 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10545 - - 12253 - - 11129 - - 9577 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11004 - - -10245 - - -11007 - - -14275 ODpotential blCL - - - 16594 - - 17032 - - 16249 - - 16419 blCL maxRH - - - 88 - - 89 - - 89 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 70.1 - - 74.7 - - 71.1 - - 63.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 31.4 - - 28.2 - - 29.6 - - 29.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 69.1 - - 73.5 - - 70.9 - - 65.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 31.2 - - 28.0 - - 29.5 - - 29.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 139 - - 187 - - 10 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3490 - - 4687 - - 3142 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 51 - - 55 - - 54 - - 32 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96536 2 326 7 052 19 106 18 098 96536 89386 13 112 9 115 13 129 8 108 89386 83867 13 145 4 161 7 139 5 118 83867 79291 11 162 9 198 3 224 2 052 79291 75332 9 155 9 197 10 250 7 304 75332 71816 7 232 4 224 6 256 5 312 71816 68627 5 230 4 273 10 258 9 263 68627 65716 21 244 23 253 18 244 15 218 65716 63036 37 225 32 237 24 227 19 187 63036 60408 40 239 40 244 34 241 33 232 60408 57651 52 249 54 250 52 253 47 246 57651 54799 64 247 68 247 70 251 72 255 54799 52076 67 248 77 248 83 248 86 257 52076 49628 73 251 86 250 94 248 95 255 49628 47434 84 252 92 249 97 248 97 253 47434 45443 91 250 96 249 99 253 98 255 45443 43628 91 248 103 253 111 258 109 259 43628 41970 92 250 111 254 124 258 123 258 41970 40441 100 253 116 254 125 255 125 255 40441 39009 108 254 116 253 121 251 120 252 39009 37654 104 254 110 249 119 249 120 249 37654 36339 96 253 102 246 116 248 121 246 36339 34999 94 251 98 244 111 246 121 245 34999 33608 93 249 97 245 108 244 120 245 33608 32170 86 245 96 244 105 242 117 246 32170 30674 83 240 94 243 103 243 114 245 30674 29107 78 238 90 243 102 244 112 245 29107 27472 74 239 85 242 98 245 107 246 27472 25772 70 237 79 242 92 248 102 249 25772 24010 68 232 75 242 83 249 95 251 24010 22193 65 227 72 239 75 246 85 248 22193 20313 63 227 69 234 74 243 77 244 20313 18360 58 230 63 231 74 242 74 241 18360 16367 52 229 57 234 70 239 73 240 16367 14445 46 227 51 233 62 233 67 238 14445 12697 39 225 47 231 53 226 55 232 12697 11145 33 224 43 229 43 223 47 226 11145 9767 31 224 37 225 36 219 42 222 9767 8541 32 222 32 217 33 214 39 218 8541 7450 32 217 26*209 29 211 38 216 7450 6481 28 211 23*208 27 213 39 214 6481 5623 22*206 23 209 26*216 40 214 5623 4862 19*206 23 210 24*219 38 214 4862 4179 18 206 22 212 23 221 35 215 4179 3572 17 206 22 212 22 223 30 214 3572 3064 16 207 21 213 21 225 24 213 3064 2672 15 207 21 214 20 226 19 210 2672 2402 14 207 20 214 18 226 13 203 2402 2238 13 207 18 214 16 227 10*197 2238 2144 11 207 15 214 12 227 5*187 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography