DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 02/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 59.9 - - 64.4 - - 62.4 - - 58.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 307 - - 353 - - 43 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3664 - - 6654 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4518 - - 6912 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5764 - - 8754 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1399 - - 1794 - - 8938 - - 6940 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 425 - - 544 - - 51 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 22 - - 26 - - 14 - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - 235 - - 249 - - 261 - - 271 Direction Wind Shear - - - 8 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -11 - - -12 - - -6 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2376 - - 263 - - -6109 - - -4492 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 8141 - - 8491 - - 8254 - - 6636 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4942 - - -110 - - -6498 - - -5162 ODpotential blCL - - - 10706 - - 8864 - - 8642 - - 7305 blCL maxRH - - - 52 - - 85 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 20 - - 20 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 59.9 - - 64.4 - - 62.4 - - 58.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 31.6 - - 34.4 - - 33.5 - - 37.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 58.2 - - 62.5 - - 62.0 - - 58.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 31.6 - - 34.3 - - 33.5 - - 37.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 307 - - 353 - - 43 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3664 - - 6654 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 39 - - 100 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96590 16 098 17 133 7 182 8 018 96590 89405 13 138 10 113 8 100 4 163 89405 83873 8 141 5 163 5 098 7 118 83873 79283 8 192 4 185 4 024 1 030 79283 75302 5 030 6 207 2 094 4 287 75302 71760 10 261 9 334 2 326 7 310 71760 68541 9 295 12 320 2 065 6 235 68541 65591 17 230 20 274 8 271 8 234 65591 62852 23 227 16 226 19 231 15 245 62852 60201 27 264 25 241 30 263 25 253 60201 57457 39 267 35 252 34 261 27 252 57457 54605 49 267 37 256 27 249 28 267 54605 51843 56 266 35 280 22 285 44 278 51843 49344 75 270 71 277 84 284 79 285 49344 47138 105 272 106 275 111 281 98 281 47138 45169 129 268 126 272 127 277 109 278 45169 43372 135 264 130 268 131 271 121 275 43372 41708 122 263 122 267 130 268 127 271 41708 40156 113 267 112 267 128 267 129 270 40156 38701 119 273 115 270 127 268 131 274 38701 37334 124 275 123 272 129 269 138 278 37334 36016 128 273 128 273 136 272 147 279 36016 34677 131 270 132 272 139 275 145 280 34677 33291 133 270 132 272 131 278 133 279 33291 31866 128 270 124 270 121 278 119 278 31866 30388 118 269 113 268 110 274 109 276 30388 28844 111 269 107 267 102 270 101 274 28844 27232 107 268 103 269 96 270 98 273 27232 25551 103 268 100 272 94 273 96 275 25551 23800 99 269 98 273 94 277 95 278 23800 21984 94 271 95 274 92 280 92 279 21984 20098 88 273 90 274 90 282 87 279 20098 18139 79 271 81 275 84 282 79 278 18139 16152 69 265 73 275 74 280 70 278 16152 14243 59 259 64 270 64 277 62 276 14243 12510 51 257 55 262 50 271 53 274 12510 10981 44 256 42 255 31 254 36 269 10981 9633 38 256 32*253 25 249 21 243 9633 8436 34 256 29*252 25 250 20 240 8436 7368 31 250 27 250 24 251 19 242 7368 6418 27*240 27 250 24 254 18 248 6418 5575 24*233 27 249 24 256 18 257 5575 4826 23 234 26 248 23 258 17 263 4826 4153 23 235 26 248 23 259 17 266 4153 3554 23 235 25 248 23 260 17 268 3554 3052 22 236 25 247 22 260 16 269 3052 2665 21 237 24 247 21 261 15 269 2665 2399 20 238 23 247 20 261 13 270 2399 2236 19 238 21 247 18*261 12 270 2236 2143 15 238 18 246 14*261 9*271 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography