DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/13 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0700z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 71.5 - - 66.9 - - 67.7 - - 65.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 84 - - 7 - - 2 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3311 - - 674 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3704 - - 2128 - - 2128 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5411 - - 2774 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2311 - - 2311 - - 3420 - - 3234 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 287 - - 85 - - 28 - - 10 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 11 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 223 - - 247 - - 257 - - 234 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -8 - - -3 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 1047 - - 590 - - -261 - - -13 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4364 - - 2185 - - 2405 - - 2157 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -94 - - -339 - - -1174 - - -1638 ODpotential blCL - - - 5505 - - 3113 - - 3318 - - 3782 blCL maxRH - - - 93 - - 100 - - 91 - - 86 maxRH CAPE - - - 90 - - 430 - - 480 - - 290 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 71.5 - - 66.9 - - 67.7 - - 65.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 59.5 - - 64.1 - - 64.0 - - 63.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 70.8 - - 66.7 - - 67.7 - - 66.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 58.2 - - 63.5 - - 63.4 - - 62.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 84 - - 7 - - 2 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3311 - - 674 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 73 - - 101 - - 65 - - 44 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 11 - - 13 - - 14 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97547 24 288 26 285 28 278 29 285 97547 90296 15 289 25 275 21 294 20 290 90296 84716 8 284 13 254 16 298 16 308 84716 80057 8 303 4 243 10 266 10 305 80057 76038 4 305 11 286 5 302 4 276 76038 72521 2 359 7 246 7 319 5 328 72521 69356 3 335 4 238 3 307 9 359 69356 66451 4 284 6 297 4 003 7 020 66451 63754 5 235 10 255 11 303 9 035 63754 61148 12 193 15 218 15 232 15 266 61148 58450 10 287 14 235 18 230 21 239 58450 55652 35 252 36 250 30 251 32 245 55652 52972 51 238 52 253 48 255 43 251 52972 50552 64 240 66 248 61 253 60 255 50552 48375 87 236 78 241 71 247 67 250 48375 46387 102 227 88 235 81 242 68 245 46387 44548 104 222 94 232 88 239 73 243 44548 42834 101 226 99 231 92 237 80 243 42834 41226 105 230 102 230 97 234 84 241 41226 39712 108 230 102 231 99 233 88 239 39712 38282 106 231 101 233 96 234 90 240 38282 36904 103 233 98 234 90 237 88 240 36904 35516 102 234 92 234 78 236 82 236 35516 34094 102 236 73 232 60 234 68 232 34094 32636 96 236 53 236 50 239 57 236 32636 31125 85 234 48 247 49 244 54 238 31125 29543 75 235 48 247 48 248 51 240 29543 27895 64 240 46 243 44 254 49 247 27895 26179 59 244 43 244 38 254 47 250 26179 24391 55 243 43 245 35 251 44 246 24391 22535 49 241 46 242 33 247 42 244 22535 20608 42 242 45 239 35 248 39 250 20608 18611 37 246 38 240 34 246 35 255 18611 16584 30 245 30 241 32 243 29 248 16584 14632 26 240 27 238 27 243 27 244 14632 12857 27 234 27 225 22 234 24 238 12857 11284 32 226 28 215 22 217 22 218 11284 9889 35 218 25 213 25 216 25 217 9889 8647 30 215 22 215 27 219 27 220 8647 7539 25 215 20 222 27 222 26 221 7539 6553 23 216 18 232 25 228 23 227 6553 5682 19*218 18 238 21 235 20 238 5682 4909 16*220 17 241 20 240 18 248 4909 4214 14 222 16 243 18 245 18 253 4214 3597 14 222 16 243 17 247 17 255 3597 3080 13 224 14*246 14 251 16 255 3080 2682 12 224 12*246 11 254 14 256 2682 2407 12 224 11 247 10 255 10 255 2407 2240 11 225 10 247 9 257 7 253 2240 2144 9 224 8 246 7*257 3*234 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography