DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/09 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.0 - - 64.6 - - 74.3 - - 67.6 - - 57.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 87 - - 130 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 373 - - 1573 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 2127 - - 2606 - - 2128 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 2473 - - 3673 - - 2144 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 134 - - 526 - - 1576 - - 1382 - - 203 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 131 - - 241 - - 7 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 10 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 2 - - 6 - - 5 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 283 - - 089 - - 007 - - 345 - - 305 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5186 - - -8868 - - -10504 - - -10245 - - -7527 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7329 - - 11341 - - 14178 - - 12390 - - 9671 sfcLCL ODpotential -18487 - - -18316 - - -18287 - - -19084 - - -18738 ODpotential blCL 20630 - - 20789 - - 21960 - - 21228 - - 20881 blCL maxRH 28 - - 21 - - 20 - - 18 - - 24 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.0 - - 64.6 - - 74.3 - - 67.6 - - 57.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.6 - - 23.2 - - 19.9 - - 21.6 - - 23.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 51.6 - - 63.7 - - 73.0 - - 70.5 - - 62.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.3 - - 22.7 - - 19.5 - - 21.1 - - 23.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 87 - - 130 - - -11 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 373 - - 1573 - - 44 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96453 14 245 13 291 9 289 14 284 31 289 96453 89252 5 023 6 049 3 228 8 334 10 322 89252 83711 14 045 6 084 5 286 13 360 10 052 83711 79110 10 053 3 044 10 328 15 019 20 034 79110 75146 16 022 4 068 5 336 9 338 18 020 75146 71642 19 347 14 017 10 020 8 335 17 029 71642 68471 21 341 16 337 18 349 17 348 16 017 68471 65568 22 314 21 316 23 324 18 327 14 335 65568 62894 25 311 23 297 24 311 21 315 18 304 62894 60318 29 303 24 302 27 307 29 314 26 308 60318 57645 28 296 29 305 29 303 30 306 29 306 57645 54882 33 301 31 301 31 294 33 294 32 300 54882 52238 38 300 36 293 37 288 37 287 37 296 52238 49845 40 292 39 284 39 287 43 287 39 290 49845 47691 39 283 34 282 33 286 39 278 36 286 47691 45740 29 300 21 273 24 276 30 279 28 283 45740 43967 27 302 6 019 7 292 18 228 15 254 43967 42335 16 008 30 031 28 032 9 080 5 190 42335 40815 24 037 31 025 31 030 26 048 22 052 40815 39390 22 052 20 041 25 041 23 042 26 045 39390 38043 24 079 21 066 18 056 18 052 22 045 38043 36737 29 083 27 066 18 069 14 069 23 057 36737 35409 31 085 31 065 21 070 12 080 25 066 35409 34032 33 082 32 065 23 066 11 079 23 068 34032 32607 32 074 30 067 23 064 7 067 19 067 32607 31123 35 068 28 071 19 062 6 028 15 072 31123 29566 32 068 27 077 15 067 8 018 12 074 29566 27937 29 076 27 082 15 077 10 018 12 068 27937 26234 24 058 23 078 14 079 12 027 12 050 26234 24460 23 047 20 059 14 063 13 037 12 041 24460 22617 23 042 21 048 17 050 13 039 14 030 22617 20701 24 038 21 047 15 042 14 027 18 023 20701 18704 22 033 20 046 12 043 15 028 17 021 18704 16666 19 022 19 037 12 041 14 036 14 024 16666 14703 17 023 16 030 12 035 12 046 11 036 14703 12918 15 030 14 028 11 030 12 051 11 046 12918 11331 12 039 11 035 9 027 10 049 12 042 11331 9918 11 048 7 050 6 035 9 041 12 032 9918 8659 10 057 3 051 4 037 7 030 12 028 8659 7539 10 057 3 047 4 031 6 026 10 030 7539 6545 9 061 5 060 6 055 6 026 7 032 6545 5667 8 074 5 071 8 072 5 068 5 033 5667 4890 7 086 4 091 7 075 6 074 5 034 4890 4195 8 102 7 115 4*054 6 054 7 024 4195 3580 10 114 11 130 5*015 6 017 10 013 3580 3067 10 117 10 130 6 006 7 352 12 004 3067 2672 8 127 5*122 6 005 8 347 11 356 2672 2402 5 131 2*092 6 005 8 348 9 352 2402 2237 2*129 2 088 6 004 7 347 4 337 2237 2143 2*283 2 085 5 005 5*345 2*305 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography