DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/05 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 71.1 - - 72.1 - - 68.1 - - 66.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 37 - - 44 - - -3 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 770 - - 770 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 786 - - 786 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2976 - - 3657 - - 2205 - - 1187 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 62 - - 64 - - 22 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 194 - - 189 - - 194 - - 173 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - -3 - - -2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1151 - - -1377 - - -255 - - -29 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 1937 - - 2164 - - 1041 - - 815 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1591 - - -1778 - - -853 - - -1689 ODpotential blCL - - - 2377 - - 2564 - - 1639 - - 2475 blCL maxRH - - - 97 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 750 - - 1080 - - 960 - - 910 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 71.1 - - 72.1 - - 68.1 - - 66.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 64.9 - - 64.9 - - 65.8 - - 65.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 70.7 - - 71.4 - - 68.1 - - 67.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 64.3 - - 64.4 - - 65.5 - - 65.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 37 - - 44 - - -3 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 88 - - 100 - - 101 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 13 - - 13 - - 14 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96187 75 246 87 249 91 254 76 257 96187 89117 46 268 53 257 52 256 54 265 89117 83674 28 281 37 255 35 263 34 265 83674 79167 16 281 23 255 24 264 26 270 79167 75278 12 268 16 262 16 271 21 275 75278 71816 11 280 12 265 11 268 15 281 71816 68659 15 294 11 257 16 271 16 277 68659 65742 16 280 11 236 18 255 14 260 65742 63035 12 271 6 233 11 249 16 262 63035 60413 10 257 11 275 13 256 17 243 60413 57676 15 252 17 244 16 224 27 246 57676 54839 20 251 20 247 26 243 30 242 54839 52134 30 249 44 237 32 241 35 252 52134 49702 40 241 42 223 36 252 43 247 49702 47525 37 228 39 229 41 243 44 252 47525 45552 32 228 47 238 44 241 60 252 45552 43752 40 237 55 239 54 243 57 243 43752 42094 51 229 56 233 54 243 52 243 42094 40555 52 217 51 216 54 240 57 248 40555 39117 49 219 48 209 51 234 58 246 39117 37763 50 220 45 215 47 231 56 245 37763 36449 56 217 49 223 45 231 58 245 36449 35109 59 216 53 225 46 230 58 242 35109 33715 58 214 55 225 48 231 56 238 33715 32268 54 220 55 230 52 233 54 235 32268 30756 55 231 55 236 55 238 53 235 30756 29166 57 238 55 240 55 240 51 233 29166 27496 56 242 52 241 51 242 50 227 27496 25744 53 251 48 241 47 241 48 225 25744 23913 52 253 45 246 44 239 46 228 23913 22003 48 246 44 252 41 242 45 229 22003 20010 43 233 40 248 40 242 43 229 20010 17931 43 226 38 232 38 238 41 230 17931 15811 40 226 39 228 38 236 37 233 15811 13767 39 224 37 232 34 238 30 234 13767 11904 39 222 38 226 31 231 26 231 11904 10248 36 222 37 220 31 222 27 222 10248 8780 31 224 32 226 29 221 30 219 8780 7477 28 224 28 229 23 230 28 223 7477 6321 28 226 25 226 19 240 22 233 6321 5297 31 227 21 229 17 245 18 242 5297 4395 33 222 20 223 15 241 15 244 4395 3598 32 217 18 217 16 233 16 238 3598 2884 28 211 17 210 16 227 18 229 2884 2254 23 205 15 205 16 221 19 217 2254 1729 20 200 14 199 15 214 16 206 1729 1326 18 197 13 195 12 205 13 195 1326 1050 16 195 12 193 9 201 9 183 1050 882 13 194 11 191 8*197 7*178 882 786 9*194 8*189 5*194 3*173 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography