DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 01/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 45.0 - - 44.9 - - 35.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 120 - - 4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 2064 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 1534 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 2773 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 2781 - - 6750 - - 3293 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 258 - - 33 - - 5 W* B/S - - - - - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 14 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 245 - - 269 - - 260 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -721 - - -4312 - - -2841 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 3494 - - 5097 - - 3626 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -1615 - - -4841 - - -5777 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 4388 - - 5625 - - 6561 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 88 - - 74 - - 66 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 45.0 - - 44.9 - - 35.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 32.5 - - 25.4 - - 23.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 43.9 - - 44.7 - - 39.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 31.6 - - 24.7 - - 22.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 120 - - 4 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 2064 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 52 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95936 40 007 47 013 28 021 95936 89064 20 322 34 340 28 352 89064 83699 17 293 24 305 31 338 83699 79179 15 270 17 267 26 306 79179 75227 12 250 19 263 20 279 75227 71684 24 233 31 257 33 260 71684 68457 37 247 42 255 37 250 68457 65476 38 245 39 245 38 241 65476 62684 34 246 36 233 38 237 62684 59964 43 242 41 240 41 240 59964 57122 54 237 52 236 47 239 57122 54169 71 235 63 236 57 237 54169 51346 80 231 77 233 73 234 51346 48806 79 233 82 237 84 239 48806 46534 96 241 103 242 105 242 46534 44477 117 238 123 241 124 239 44477 42594 130 235 133 238 132 235 42594 40857 131 234 138 236 133 235 40857 39246 128 235 140 234 141 235 39246 37752 132 235 143 232 147 232 37752 36364 142 235 146 230 145 230 36364 35039 152 232 147 230 145 229 35039 33702 149 229 146 230 145 229 33702 32323 139 228 144 231 144 230 32323 30906 136 229 144 232 143 232 30906 29432 133 231 141 231 139 231 29432 27881 128 233 133 232 131 231 27881 26255 122 235 121 232 119 232 26255 24552 115 234 112 232 109 231 24552 22773 110 232 107 233 104 230 22773 20922 107 230 103 235 98 229 20922 18997 102 230 100 237 93 228 18997 16996 98 231 96 238 86 224 16996 14961 96 230 93 238 80 225 14961 13002 92 226 88 237 75 232 13002 11221 84 223 77 234 66 237 11221 9643 70 224 59 231 55 236 9643 8254 53 229 40 233 45 230 8254 7030 42 238 31 237 35 230 7030 5949 36 250 29 241 28 237 5949 4995 29 252 28 243 24 244 4995 4154 25 252 24 251 22 249 4154 3412 20*250 22 258 20 253 3412 2746 17*246 21 261 18 257 2746 2158 15 244 20 263 15 259 2158 1667 14 244 19 265 13 262 1667 1290 13 244 18 266 10 265 1290 1030 12 244 16 267 7 268 1030 873 10 244 13*268 5*267 873 784 8 244 9*269 3*260 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography