DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/14 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 47.8 - - 55.7 - - 56.2 - - 52.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 108 - - 94 - - 1 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3146 - - 3813 - - 3225 - - 330 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 81 - - 78 - - 19 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 5 - - 1 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 292 - - 279 - - 290 - - 134 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4436 - - -7974 - - -7290 - - -6027 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5220 - - 8758 - - 8075 - - 6811 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9164 - - -14719 - - -12735 - - -13772 ODpotential blCL - - - 9948 - - 15503 - - 13519 - - 14556 blCL maxRH - - - 95 - - 84 - - 59 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 50 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 47.8 - - 55.7 - - 56.2 - - 52.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 28.0 - - 20.1 - - 23.8 - - 25.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 46.6 - - 54.5 - - 56.4 - - 53.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 27.8 - - 19.4 - - 22.9 - - 24.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 108 - - 94 - - 1 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 79 - - 35 - - 0 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96084 79 254 72 255 88 255 83 256 96084 89065 51 254 58 255 66 250 60 255 89065 83574 42 264 43 260 42 260 40 260 83574 78971 36 274 36 269 37 280 40 275 78971 75044 23 271 28 254 25 272 39 271 75044 71601 25 306 20 276 14 271 23 259 71601 68440 36 307 30 299 21 307 20 297 68440 65488 35 304 34 307 33 307 32 307 65488 62740 35 295 35 307 39 309 36 308 62740 60074 34 286 34 298 42 307 39 308 60074 57274 37 289 38 285 47 291 43 298 57274 54349 45 296 42 284 47 283 47 295 54349 51552 53 308 48 294 53 291 51 299 51552 49036 67 309 55 301 54 299 58 307 49036 46786 74 300 63 303 66 303 64 305 46786 44755 79 295 72 301 68 299 64 303 44755 42904 80 296 75 297 68 303 64 310 42904 41206 82 296 69 296 70 306 77 318 41206 39647 85 298 69 308 79 314 85 319 39647 38210 93 299 88 312 88 313 80 315 38210 36872 95 297 91 302 82 310 72 329 36872 35589 90 296 80 296 75 317 83 343 35589 34287 87 293 71 303 76 328 88 339 34287 32930 84 295 74 308 79 331 86 332 32930 31519 77 302 78 305 80 327 88 329 31519 30040 72 307 83 303 80 327 86 325 30040 28480 69 309 86 308 79 328 81 317 28480 26839 69 308 83 314 76 324 77 315 26839 25114 68 307 73 313 74 321 75 315 25114 23310 65 306 66 306 71 320 75 315 23310 21434 59 307 66 302 66 316 71 315 21434 19480 53 308 64 304 63 312 64 308 19480 17443 49 306 59 305 64 308 62 305 17443 15366 48 305 56 304 60 305 58 304 15366 13368 50 307 54 306 53 301 53 301 13368 11557 54 309 52 306 50 298 47 298 11557 9952 52 314 47 303 48 293 43 298 9952 8525 46 321 41 301 44 288 40 293 8525 7255 41 320 35 302 40 285 38 285 7255 6131 36 315 30 304 35 281 37 280 6131 5140 30 313 27 301 29 274 31 272 5140 4268 21 312 22 296 22 268 24 259 4268 3498 13 312 15 286 16 265 19 251 3498 2809 10 306 10 278 11 264 15 246 2809 2200 10 297 9 277 6 263 10 225 2200 1693 9 292 8 277 4 267 10 189 1693 1304 8 292 7 278 3 272 10 165 1304 1038 8 292 7 279 2 280 10 152 1038 876 7 292 6 278 2 284 6 146 876 784 6*292 5*279 1*290 3*134 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography