DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/23 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.7 - - 60.0 - - 59.5 - - 49.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 120 - - 177 - - 19 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1943 - - 3427 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1440 - - 2717 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2652 - - 4136 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1599 - - 1442 - - 4903 - - 190 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 252 - - 347 - - 48 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 5 - - 9 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 7 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 039 - - 029 - - 043 - - 073 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - -2 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -656 - - -703 - - -4259 - - -2588 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3308 - - 4840 - - 5045 - - 3372 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9496 - - -8659 - - -11683 - - -12992 ODpotential blCL - - - 12148 - - 12795 - - 12468 - - 13776 blCL maxRH - - - 84 - - 78 - - 80 - - 61 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.7 - - 60.0 - - 59.5 - - 49.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 43.3 - - 41.8 - - 40.6 - - 37.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 53.5 - - 58.2 - - 59.1 - - 51.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 42.5 - - 40.9 - - 39.8 - - 37.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 120 - - 177 - - 19 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1943 - - 3427 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 36 - - 11 - - 20 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97471 15 243 15 240 22 279 8 294 97471 90231 4 054 6 247 5 316 1 054 90231 84662 9 038 3 104 3 193 5 342 84662 80022 7 062 8 103 1 258 5 351 80022 76004 6 051 6 106 2 302 7 359 76004 72452 7 022 5 043 3 140 7 335 72452 69248 9 030 5 004 3 099 4 302 69248 66298 11 001 5 358 4 002 0 107 66298 63553 8 310 3 292 7 284 7 308 63553 60892 8 302 5 326 7 289 10 317 60892 58120 19 294 19 309 17 296 17 299 58120 55243 16 290 20 296 21 294 23 299 55243 52492 20 318 28 290 35 280 29 289 52492 50006 34 301 28 272 31 270 29 290 50006 47772 32 301 25 292 32 310 48 311 47772 45744 30 319 36 304 44 304 51 303 45744 43879 34 324 36 307 42 299 45 304 43879 42155 38 326 39 317 40 310 39 310 42155 40554 42 330 42 323 43 319 40 321 40554 39063 43 332 41 329 42 322 46 323 39063 37666 39 334 41 337 39 326 46 322 37666 36324 33 336 43 342 39 332 44 323 36324 34968 33 341 42 341 41 333 41 326 34968 33566 34 346 39 338 41 331 39 326 33566 32119 31 345 34 335 41 333 34 324 32119 30609 29 343 31 334 38 332 30 320 30609 29018 28 345 29 337 33 329 27 317 29018 27344 27 348 25 340 28 331 21 316 27344 25586 26 350 21 344 21 332 16 315 25586 23747 23 350 19 344 18 328 15 327 23747 21834 19 358 17 342 19 330 17 340 21834 19838 19 010 16 351 18 333 17 343 19838 17752 19 013 17 003 16 347 16 351 17752 15617 19 018 15 010 14 354 13 357 15617 13557 17 024 12 013 12 353 11 003 13557 11683 15 017 11 007 11 358 9 006 11683 10024 18 009 14 011 11 013 8 010 10024 8560 21 009 15 014 12 025 5 024 8560 7272 17 017 12 014 9 026 4 043 7272 6138 13 018 9 013 7 025 4 037 6138 5142 10 017 7 025 8 035 5 037 5142 4269 8 027 7*028 8 039 6 057 4269 3499 10 047 7*029 8 041 8 073 3499 2810 11*044 7 029 8 042 10 076 2810 2202 10*042 7 030 8 042 12 076 2202 1695 10 040 7 030 8 043 13 074 1695 1306 9 039 7 030 8 043 13 072 1306 1039 9 037 6 030 7 043 11 071 1039 877 8 037 6 029 6 043 8 070 877 784 6 037 5 029 5*043 4*073 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography