DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 10/05 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 64.6 - - 67.3 - - 66.3 - - 57.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 111 - - 176 - - 25 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2353 - - 3531 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1730 - - 2817 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3062 - - 4240 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1458 - - 1452 - - 5551 - - 810 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 268 - - 356 - - 56 - - 12 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 17 - - 16 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 308 - - 315 - - 322 - - 329 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 6 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -672 - - -1072 - - -5403 - - -2492 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3734 - - 5312 - - 6189 - - 3277 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8905 - - -9713 - - -13721 - - -12052 ODpotential blCL - - - 11967 - - 13953 - - 14506 - - 12837 blCL maxRH - - - 73 - - 64 - - 65 - - 74 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 64.6 - - 67.3 - - 66.3 - - 57.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 51.1 - - 46.9 - - 42.1 - - 46.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 63.6 - - 66.0 - - 66.0 - - 59.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 50.0 - - 45.7 - - 41.1 - - 45.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 111 - - 176 - - 25 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2353 - - 3531 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98188 10 235 16 224 21 235 22 258 98188 90817 18 239 16 239 18 236 21 245 90817 85088 15 238 13 232 17 247 20 250 85088 80320 16 247 17 243 15 258 13 263 80320 76215 13 236 16 230 16 249 11 295 76215 72602 12 233 17 242 15 270 13 270 72602 69343 9 245 17 234 18 264 12 261 69343 66350 11 230 13 215 22 248 24 284 66350 63601 18 286 14 281 17 233 24 275 63601 60948 39 279 30 288 16 264 29 265 60948 58177 45 263 46 271 44 282 39 272 58177 55311 49 258 56 262 61 274 51 274 55311 52594 59 267 64 261 70 264 64 271 52594 50161 72 270 68 264 73 261 72 267 50161 47985 82 269 77 266 78 260 75 264 47985 46010 88 266 82 262 78 256 79 262 46010 44198 90 262 81 261 77 260 84 260 44198 42516 93 257 80 265 79 264 86 259 42516 40941 96 253 79 266 78 266 84 260 40941 39459 95 251 76 265 76 266 79 261 39459 38058 92 247 72 265 74 264 75 261 38058 36700 89 244 68 269 70 266 71 265 36700 35318 84 246 65 276 66 274 65 273 35318 33884 79 250 61 280 64 283 62 279 33884 32402 72 255 55 286 61 289 58 280 32402 30859 59 261 51 294 59 290 54 280 30859 29239 51 267 49 292 57 289 51 282 29239 27542 50 271 50 287 54 286 49 283 27542 25764 51 274 55 282 53 281 48 283 25764 23908 49 276 57 279 55 279 48 284 23908 21976 44 271 55 275 53 278 47 285 21976 19963 41 263 50 269 50 277 46 284 19963 17862 40 259 45 264 48 278 45 285 17862 15718 39 264 42 268 46 280 43 288 15718 13650 37 273 37 275 42 285 39 290 13650 11771 33 276 34 285 40 292 36 294 11771 10106 31 275 34 293 38 300 33 301 10106 8632 30 279 34 298 36 306 30 307 8632 7333 33 291 34 303 30 308 24 306 7333 6191 34 302 30 307 20 307 21 300 6191 5188 32 311 21 309 17 313 20 305 5188 4309 28 314 17*313 17 316 21 316 4309 3532 24*313 17*314 17 317 21 322 3532 2836 20*310 17 315 16 319 22 326 2836 2221 18 308 16 315 16 320 21 329 2221 1708 17 308 16 316 16 321 20 331 1708 1314 16 308 15 316 15 321 17 333 1314 1043 15 307 14 317 14 322 13 334 1043 879 13 307 13 316 12 322 9 332 879 785 10 306 10 316 9*322 4*329 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography