DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/16 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 29.8 - - 37.6 - - 39.9 - - 29.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 99 - - 153 - - -1 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 74 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 766 - - 767 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 783 - - 784 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1645 - - 2257 - - 2386 - - 256 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 79 - - 91 - - 13 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 10 - - 8 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 062 - - 166 - - 135 - - 148 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 0 - - -1 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4895 - - -6090 - - -6082 - - -4058 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5678 - - 6873 - - 6866 - - 4841 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -19163 - - -19627 - - -19732 - - -20884 ODpotential blCL - - - 19946 - - 20410 - - 20516 - - 21667 blCL maxRH - - - 47 - - 42 - - 40 - - 44 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 29.8 - - 37.6 - - 39.9 - - 29.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 8.3 - - 10.7 - - 13.1 - - 11.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 28.6 - - 36.1 - - 40.1 - - 32.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 7.4 - - 10.0 - - 12.4 - - 11.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 99 - - 153 - - -1 - - -27 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 74 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95357 78 271 79 276 77 273 69 279 95357 88602 71 278 68 285 70 282 65 273 88602 83293 58 281 59 285 60 288 61 284 83293 78834 48 289 49 282 48 284 53 295 78834 74975 44 299 39 282 36 280 42 288 74975 71532 43 299 36 287 34 284 38 275 71532 68371 44 294 39 289 42 290 35 281 68371 65440 45 285 43 290 48 287 39 295 65440 62730 45 285 47 299 49 295 43 293 62730 60119 46 288 50 298 50 300 45 281 60119 57386 47 283 47 282 47 290 43 279 57386 54525 42 271 40 269 45 276 39 288 54525 51778 32 282 33 280 40 271 44 288 51778 49288 44 308 38 303 37 284 48 277 49288 47038 69 306 57 308 44 300 44 274 47038 44996 79 293 66 298 55 299 39 280 44996 43160 70 287 66 284 56 287 43 282 43160 41497 61 308 52 279 50 280 49 283 41497 39960 65 314 53 301 42 291 43 281 39960 38528 66 319 63 306 42 300 37 288 38528 37191 69 322 60 309 48 304 37 294 37191 35906 67 326 55 313 51 304 42 291 35906 34594 68 333 52 316 49 302 44 287 34594 33223 70 335 52 318 47 302 42 282 33223 31798 72 330 60 318 47 301 42 278 31798 30303 74 320 64 314 50 300 44 278 30303 28728 72 317 62 311 51 301 44 279 28728 27073 56 332 58 312 51 303 46 280 27073 25336 44 321 56 316 51 304 50 280 25336 23516 48 305 50 318 45 301 51 279 23516 21614 48 299 44 308 40 296 48 277 21614 19623 46 295 39 290 39 292 46 271 19623 17541 44 291 40 286 36 284 44 267 17541 15419 41 290 36 288 35 286 39 269 15419 13378 33 291 30 283 29 281 35 271 13378 11525 27 291 27 274 29 267 34 270 11525 9882 25 288 27 266 30 263 34 267 9882 8429 24 285 25 269 28 265 32 262 8429 7146 21 289 22 271 25 264 29 254 7146 6016 17 290 19 264 24 259 28 247 6016 5026 17 285 18 260 25 258 28 243 5026 4164 20 283 16 261 22 251 26 239 4164 3410 21 281 12 244 15 235 24 230 3410 2738 14 276 8 201 9 219 22 224 2738 2146 5 258 5 180 7 193 19 204 2146 1656 2 239 4 175 6 165 23 178 1656 1282 1 056 3 173 5 154 20 164 1282 1026 1 065 3 168 5 147 15 159 1026 871 2*067 3*165 4*140 10 156 871 783 1*062 2*166 3*135 4*148 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography