DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 43.1 - - 44.9 - - 44.9 - - 42.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 66 - - 5 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2867 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2049 - - 767 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3576 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3414 - - 6068 - - 6094 - - 4159 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 280 - - 70 - - 31 - - 15 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 23 - - 12 - - 11 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 310 - - 296 - - 294 - - 284 Direction Wind Shear - - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 7 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -608 - - -3721 - - -4015 - - -2692 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4184 - - 4505 - - 4799 - - 3476 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1065 - - -3913 - - -4493 - - -3527 ODpotential blCL - - - 4641 - - 4697 - - 5277 - - 4311 blCL maxRH - - - 92 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 43.1 - - 44.9 - - 44.9 - - 42.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 27.5 - - 28.0 - - 26.7 - - 30.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 42.0 - - 44.2 - - 44.6 - - 42.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 27.0 - - 27.6 - - 26.4 - - 30.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 66 - - 5 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2867 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 67 - - 102 - - 100 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96557 52 238 66 243 58 256 56 256 96557 89254 46 242 41 242 45 248 45 260 89254 83667 32 245 23 228 35 236 34 252 83667 79065 21 256 16 211 33 218 26 236 79065 75100 20 251 13 241 20 213 18 241 75100 71588 21 236 18 248 13 241 15 239 71588 68391 22 239 22 238 15 254 13 201 68391 65419 17 234 25 237 27 254 22 270 65419 62661 10 240 25 241 35 242 33 257 62661 59990 21 267 27 239 33 241 35 243 59990 57178 29 262 30 247 34 253 36 247 57178 54243 32 260 38 253 43 258 41 254 54243 51438 39 271 44 251 51 257 49 257 51438 48911 49 272 46 256 53 257 54 257 48911 46639 56 266 56 266 55 257 57 256 46639 44573 59 262 64 265 58 261 59 257 44573 42680 62 261 63 265 60 263 59 257 42680 40935 65 259 63 266 60 265 58 259 40935 39320 66 257 63 263 62 264 61 259 39320 37818 61 257 60 263 58 263 60 257 37818 36416 54 260 58 264 54 269 57 260 36416 35073 49 264 54 265 54 275 55 259 35073 33716 43 269 48 268 51 282 46 262 33716 32316 33 274 40 281 45 292 39 277 32316 30880 29 295 33 300 41 301 38 289 30880 29394 27 318 31 328 39 308 38 296 29394 27844 28 346 34 342 38 315 39 300 27844 26227 32 358 36 342 39 321 41 302 26227 24540 34 001 38 340 41 323 43 300 24540 22780 34 002 38 340 40 324 44 298 22780 20951 33 358 36 343 36 323 46 298 20951 19044 31 351 35 344 35 319 45 300 19044 17051 27 348 33 341 32 315 42 303 17051 15016 25 344 30 340 30 317 38 307 15016 13050 25 334 26 332 29 318 34 309 13050 11264 26 321 25 316 26 315 29 312 11264 9679 28 320 26 320 25 316 24 320 9679 8280 32 324 33 320 31 318 26 330 8280 7050 35 325 33 317 34 314 34 326 7050 5966 35 324 31 310 33 311 35 318 5966 5007 35 323 28 300 31 305 34 309 5007 4162 31*319 27 298 27 297 33 302 4162 3417 28*315 27 297 26 296 31 297 3417 2750 25 311 26 297 26 296 28 295 2750 2161 23 310 25 297 25 296 25 292 2161 1669 22 309 24 297 23 295 22 290 1669 1291 21 308 23 296 21 295 18 288 1291 1032 19 308 21 297 18 295 15 286 1032 874 17 308 18*296 15*295 12*285 874 784 12 307 12*296 11*294 7*284 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography