DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 02/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 45.9 - - 47.2 - - 47.1 - - 44.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 14 - - 10 - - 0 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 768 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 482 - - 3186 - - 2821 - - 2168 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 44 - - 40 - - 19 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 239 - - 184 - - 143 - - 088 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1371 - - -621 - - -201 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2155 - - 1405 - - 985 - - 784 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3101 - - -992 - - -557 - - -561 ODpotential blCL - - - 3885 - - 1776 - - 1341 - - 1345 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 45.9 - - 47.2 - - 47.1 - - 44.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 39.4 - - 43.9 - - 45.5 - - 44.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 45.5 - - 46.8 - - 46.9 - - 44.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 38.5 - - 43.2 - - 45.2 - - 44.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 14 - - 10 - - 0 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 101 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96519 35 073 38 037 34 056 28 058 96519 89445 35 075 28 055 23 066 24 049 89445 83908 28 069 22 093 12 081 19 023 83908 79265 11 061 16 098 6 133 9 320 79265 75245 6 060 3 100 2 282 7 304 75245 71676 5 030 2 205 8 288 10 310 71676 68434 12 327 8 275 15 287 16 300 68434 65456 14 308 16 282 19 279 20 280 65456 62694 25 303 23 289 25 288 26 275 62694 60016 39 281 34 288 34 288 31 279 60016 57216 43 269 41 285 42 282 40 275 57216 54305 42 275 54 282 54 276 45 278 54305 51516 49 286 60 276 60 271 66 279 51516 48993 65 278 59 274 66 272 65 270 48993 46721 66 269 58 275 65 271 62 273 46721 44661 62 269 63 280 65 274 67 272 44661 42784 63 268 69 279 76 271 70 273 42784 41064 73 273 80 277 89 267 77 271 41064 39491 101 277 102 268 99 261 89 261 39491 38049 117 266 109 256 104 255 105 247 38049 36704 113 263 103 253 105 245 106 234 36704 35406 106 264 104 251 98 245 106 231 35406 34088 92 266 101 252 93 250 96 235 34088 32718 79 265 94 254 91 251 88 237 32718 31296 75 265 91 255 89 252 89 239 31296 29807 74 263 87 256 87 252 80 240 29807 28242 72 262 78 257 83 251 69 244 28242 26602 66 259 68 258 76 248 66 250 26602 24884 60 253 63 258 66 246 59 254 24884 23091 55 252 57 256 57 250 50 254 23091 21226 52 259 48 254 50 253 45 253 21226 19281 49 265 45 261 48 247 43 255 19281 17253 44 272 43 264 49 241 42 261 17253 15188 33 272 34 261 46 239 40 262 15188 13203 22 261 25 250 39 243 34 256 13203 11404 15 255 19 230 34 246 31 246 11404 9808 12 231 17 231 27 245 32 245 9808 8394 12 219 21 230 22 241 31 241 8394 7140 10 216 26 228 21 241 26 243 7140 6031 7 231 26 223 20 229 20 248 6031 5053 8 232 23 213 17 214 16 236 5053 4197 11 229 21 203 14 205 12 210 4197 3443 12 233 17 193 12 197 9 181 3443 2769 11 239 15 188 11 183 9 165 2769 2174 11 241 12 184 11 166 8 149 2174 1677 12 244 10 183 11 158 8 132 1677 1296 12 248 8 183 10 153 8 121 1296 1034 9 246 7 182 9 149 6 107 1034 875 6*242 5 183 7*145 5*096 875 784 4*239 4*184 5*143 3*088 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography