DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 12/08 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 29.5 - - 31.4 - - 29.7 - - 25.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 90 - - 183 - - 36 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2693 - - 3080 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1733 - - 2461 - - 766 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3402 - - 3789 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 992 - - 914 - - 3986 - - 3315 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 253 - - 334 - - 56 - - 9 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 15 - - 16 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 027 - - 029 - - 044 - - 048 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -115 - - -1265 - - -5899 - - -4623 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3517 - - 5054 - - 6682 - - 5407 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -489 - - -9140 - - -13693 - - -12810 ODpotential blCL - - - 3891 - - 12929 - - 14476 - - 13593 blCL maxRH - - - 94 - - 91 - - 89 - - 84 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 29.5 - - 31.4 - - 29.7 - - 25.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 17.1 - - 12.1 - - 3.2 - - 4.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 28.4 - - 29.9 - - 29.1 - - 26.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 16.6 - - 11.8 - - 2.9 - - 3.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 90 - - 183 - - 36 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2693 - - 3080 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 75 - - 63 - - 55 - - 35 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95910 11 244 22 257 26 255 32 256 95910 88690 16 255 23 250 27 264 28 255 88690 83115 25 259 24 247 32 263 28 255 83115 78478 29 255 26 245 35 245 32 256 78478 74485 29 263 22 252 33 248 35 246 74485 70952 34 265 33 260 35 255 34 256 70952 67739 36 259 39 250 35 255 40 262 67739 64777 34 251 34 243 37 257 46 260 64777 62027 39 262 46 261 49 254 51 254 62027 59362 54 255 58 250 51 248 59 256 59362 56578 60 262 59 251 65 260 71 258 56578 53681 81 258 72 256 80 256 87 253 53681 50917 88 247 88 249 83 251 92 250 50917 48422 88 245 88 246 90 252 91 250 48422 46172 88 247 91 246 96 252 91 250 46172 44121 94 249 97 247 98 252 93 252 44121 42242 105 247 100 247 97 251 94 252 42242 40513 106 244 101 247 95 250 93 253 40513 38907 99 243 100 246 95 248 94 256 38907 37403 100 243 102 245 94 244 96 255 37403 35989 104 241 105 243 90 242 94 251 35989 34622 95 238 103 243 85 244 93 249 34622 33235 80 241 95 244 84 246 89 250 33235 31802 84 240 89 244 85 243 81 251 31802 30337 93 236 91 240 82 239 69 248 30337 28831 89 235 89 234 75 234 60 248 28831 27279 71 229 77 230 65 230 51 244 27279 25683 60 225 63 228 55 226 41 239 25683 24035 63 235 57 223 48 221 31 233 24035 22321 62 230 57 225 43 224 29 238 22321 20532 54 224 50 221 36 232 30 242 20532 18661 41 229 39 224 30 235 24 242 18661 16705 30 249 30 237 25 236 19 245 16705 14709 26 250 27 243 21 240 18 260 14709 12784 23 252 23 246 20 256 21 279 12784 11032 22 261 21 258 21 268 22 279 11032 9476 19 263 17 267 16 270 15 288 9476 8096 15 265 11 282 13 301 11 321 8096 6877 14 276 10 320 11 336 7 002 6877 5806 10 309 10 006 10 049 8 064 5806 4868 9 011 16 033 13 050 10 073 4868 4047 15*028 16*030 13 044 11 056 4047 3326 16*028 16*029 13 043 12 050 3326 2682 16 028 16 029 12 044 12 050 2682 2112 16 027 16 029 12 044 12 050 2112 1637 15 027 16 029 12 044 12 050 1637 1272 15 027 15 028 11 044 11 049 1272 1022 14 026 14 028 11 044 8 049 1022 870 12 026 13 028 9*044 6*048 870 783 9 025 10 028 7*044 3*048 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography