DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/03 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 86.1 - - 91.3 - - 92.7 - - 84.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 99 - - 146 - - 14 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 3713 - - 79 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 771 - - 2890 - - 771 - - 771 Hcrit BL Top - - - 787 - - 4422 - - 788 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 3986 - - 3821 - - 10116 - - 484 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 84 - - 348 - - 55 - - 13 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 7 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 9 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 291 - - 260 - - 281 - - 230 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - -4 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3243 - - -1132 - - -5657 - - -2528 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4030 - - 5554 - - 6445 - - 3315 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4959 - - -2683 - - -6659 - - -4960 ODpotential blCL - - - 5746 - - 7105 - - 7447 - - 5747 blCL maxRH - - - 68 - - 70 - - 82 - - 81 maxRH CAPE - - - 1970 - - 2050 - - 1760 - - 2790 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 86.1 - - 91.3 - - 92.7 - - 84.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 70.9 - - 69.5 - - 67.1 - - 72.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 85.0 - - 90.0 - - 93.1 - - 87.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 69.9 - - 68.4 - - 66.0 - - 71.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 99 - - 146 - - 14 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 78 - - 3713 - - 79 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 29 - - 24 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 15 - - 14 - - 18 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99138 10 115 17 098 6 130 6 060 99138 91665 4 102 13 107 10 095 5 080 91665 85877 7 112 7 108 7 086 6 083 85877 81072 7 099 7 130 3 085 6 029 81072 76946 6 063 8 131 5 048 2 087 76946 73311 8 063 7 085 5 044 3 078 73311 70034 8 048 7 031 5 070 1 131 70034 67033 6 022 8 002 8 038 3 045 67033 64262 5 012 5 355 4 307 7 311 64262 61596 12 011 7 005 4 322 7 316 61596 58845 17 324 14 326 14 294 19 312 58845 56029 21 312 19 265 19 257 22 275 56029 53344 29 312 23 308 24 296 21 283 53344 50923 48 311 42 309 45 310 43 310 50923 48759 53 307 48 304 58 307 51 307 48759 46791 54 310 50 306 59 305 56 306 46791 44974 57 311 53 306 57 303 59 303 44974 43283 56 305 54 307 54 300 56 298 43283 41700 51 303 55 307 50 298 54 296 41700 40210 45 301 49 300 48 299 54 296 40210 38802 42 302 40 286 44 296 50 292 38802 37439 41 303 36 282 41 287 47 281 37439 36052 37 294 35 283 41 280 47 273 36052 34609 35 285 34 287 40 282 47 273 34609 33112 40 286 35 293 41 287 45 279 33112 31545 44 291 37 299 42 293 45 290 31545 29895 41 300 39 303 42 298 43 295 29895 28165 35 308 33 303 33 296 34 288 28165 26359 31 303 27 293 29 285 33 279 26359 24476 30 291 31 285 34 282 35 282 24476 22518 30 293 32 288 33 285 31 284 22518 20479 30 292 29 293 30 283 28 286 20479 18357 30 287 29 288 29 285 29 282 18357 16199 31 280 30 282 30 294 27 287 16199 14121 32 279 29 286 30 301 24 293 14121 12233 31 281 28 297 24 302 21 291 12233 10552 28 286 29 303 20 295 20 286 10552 9056 23 293 29 299 18 290 19 281 9056 7721 20 301 27 293 17 286 18 277 7721 6532 18 308 24 290 15 283 15 276 6532 5475 17 311 19 284 14 282 14 277 5475 4541 19 310 16*276 14 281 14 278 4541 3715 20 308 13*269 13 281 14 277 3715 2975 18 306 10 261 12 281 14 275 2975 2320 12 301 9 259 11 281 13 272 2320 1772 8 293 9 256 11 281 12 267 1772 1352 7 292 8 255 10 281 10 260 1352 1063 7 291 8 254 9 281 8 250 1063 888 6 291 7 254 8*281 6 239 888 787 5*291 6 253 6*281 4*230 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography