DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/12 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 76.9 - - 79.7 - - 79.3 - - 73.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 138 - - 114 - - 60 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2742 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2130 - - 770 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3451 - - 786 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1989 - - 5561 - - 5251 - - 3463 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 303 - - 88 - - 73 - - 27 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 9 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 073 - - 065 - - 095 - - 119 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 0 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 374 - - -2938 - - -2575 - - -620 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3077 - - 3724 - - 3361 - - 1406 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -29 - - -3051 - - -2853 - - -1098 ODpotential blCL - - - 3480 - - 3837 - - 3639 - - 1884 blCL maxRH - - - 92 - - 92 - - 94 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 320 - - 620 - - 910 - - 1120 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 76.9 - - 79.7 - - 79.3 - - 73.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 65.9 - - 66.0 - - 67.1 - - 69.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 75.5 - - 78.4 - - 78.4 - - 73.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 65.1 - - 64.9 - - 66.1 - - 69.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 138 - - 114 - - 60 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2742 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 69 - - 69 - - 74 - - 99 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 13 - - 14 - - 14 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99412 47 088 45 084 39 090 36 090 99412 91877 36 083 40 087 36 086 32 088 91877 86078 28 077 34 084 30 085 28 074 86078 81283 22 073 26 079 26 082 20 067 81283 77150 20 085 18 089 17 072 21 070 77150 73486 18 078 14 097 14 075 18 052 73486 70172 15 074 8 099 12 055 15 064 70172 67142 14 049 11 075 9 042 15 036 67142 64361 9 050 9 068 6 044 8 029 64361 61676 10 013 10 356 10 360 9 028 61676 58862 15 318 11 320 9 323 9 338 58862 55937 23 294 19 313 15 314 17 324 55937 53153 29 282 27 294 21 295 23 313 53153 50662 38 278 33 282 27 289 28 295 50662 48444 43 271 37 273 33 285 28 278 48444 46443 40 266 38 264 37 276 33 276 46443 44617 42 265 33 259 38 263 38 267 44617 42937 41 263 27 261 31 256 37 258 42937 41380 32 260 26 263 21 266 35 258 41380 39922 26 262 20 263 23 273 31 261 39922 38544 25 267 11 264 20 264 29 268 38544 37202 27 263 11 270 18 262 28 271 37202 35831 26 261 13 263 18 266 27 269 35831 34400 16 261 11 256 19 264 24 267 34400 32916 8 271 8 276 12 264 19 262 32916 31362 4 306 7 266 13 285 16 280 31362 29726 6 321 8 268 14 296 17 297 29726 28005 7 321 6 294 11 314 18 306 28005 26199 7 333 5 342 10 336 15 311 26199 24312 7 342 6 013 9 355 8 329 24312 22349 8 333 8 030 8 017 9 347 22349 20306 9 324 9 039 7 038 8 352 20306 18180 8 322 8 019 7 051 5 339 18180 16016 9 334 6 351 3 034 7 298 16016 13934 7 345 4 330 3 295 2 252 13934 12040 4 010 3 041 2 349 1 041 12040 10360 3 026 5 057 3 042 2 332 10360 8873 4 043 3 001 5 002 7 089 8873 7555 5 065 3 015 6 033 9 094 7555 6383 9 078 5 069 8 069 8 094 6383 5344 10 082 8 076 9 078 10 109 5344 4431 10 080 8 075 10 083 14 122 4431 3627 10*078 8 073 10 087 14 124 3627 2907 10*075 8 072 10 091 14 123 2907 2271 10 074 8 071 9 093 13 122 2271 1741 10 073 7 069 9 094 12 122 1741 1334 9 072 7 068 9 095 11 121 1334 1054 9 071 6 067 8 096 10 120 1054 884 8 071 6 066 7 096 8 120 884 786 6 070 5*065 6*095 5*119 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography