DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 03/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 29.9 - - 31.4 - - 33.1 - - 29.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 142 - - 95 - - 118 - - 2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3723 - - 74 - - 3571 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2832 - - 766 - - 2612 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4432 - - 783 - - 4280 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2482 - - 7495 - - 4843 - - 5581 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 335 - - 79 - - 311 - - 34 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 20 - - 11 - - 26 - - 11 BL Wind Direction - - - 275 - - 269 - - 281 - - 283 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 0 - - 15 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 1 - - 18 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 820 - - -2860 - - 457 - - -3677 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3612 - - 3643 - - 3823 - - 4460 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - 18 - - -2824 - - -423 - - -4451 ODpotential blCL - - - 4414 - - 3607 - - 4703 - - 5234 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 100 - - 93 - - 51 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 60 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 29.9 - - 31.4 - - 33.1 - - 29.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 16.9 - - 18.3 - - 19.2 - - 13.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 28.8 - - 30.5 - - 32.2 - - 29.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 15.9 - - 17.2 - - 18.1 - - 11.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 142 - - 95 - - 118 - - 2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3723 - - 74 - - 3571 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 91 - - 100 - - 71 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96659 14 258 13 253 20 248 26 270 96659 89438 7 253 5 241 13 230 13 271 89438 83868 5 234 5 225 5 245 7 295 83868 79241 3 287 6 233 6 282 8 275 79241 75240 10 238 4 280 7 269 7 234 75240 71679 8 236 7 255 6 274 4 239 71679 68432 4 271 5 215 10 267 10 299 68432 65440 5 270 5 141 8 240 15 295 65440 62648 10 275 2 343 5 274 5 243 62648 59918 17 230 18 260 17 264 20 258 59918 57056 23 224 25 238 31 244 33 239 57056 54069 31 230 31 232 35 244 32 241 54069 51211 42 228 45 237 45 242 46 245 51211 48646 60 221 59 232 52 236 50 235 48646 46341 63 219 60 224 54 228 49 238 46341 44248 65 224 59 226 54 228 57 241 44248 42340 76 227 69 228 60 235 61 238 42340 40584 89 221 78 224 69 236 61 234 40584 38951 96 214 86 221 75 233 59 233 38951 37420 98 211 93 219 78 229 58 235 37420 35980 102 212 95 216 79 225 61 238 35980 34593 112 214 91 216 82 222 67 240 34593 33192 126 215 95 218 84 220 72 241 33192 31752 142 213 107 220 90 219 73 241 31752 30278 154 212 122 219 99 218 71 241 30278 28752 158 211 132 216 106 217 66 242 28752 27161 148 210 133 216 115 217 61 246 27161 25507 136 209 132 217 126 217 61 247 25507 23792 136 211 130 216 133 215 60 247 23792 22018 137 211 128 215 129 213 56 248 22018 20193 132 213 126 216 115 214 52 251 20193 18311 116 219 114 219 90 220 49 249 18311 16371 89 218 86 223 67 224 42 248 16371 14415 66 220 61 224 55 231 33 253 14415 12548 47 230 50 227 45 233 30 266 12548 10861 38 236 41 234 34 232 34 265 10861 9368 33 247 31 247 28 244 36 262 9368 8041 29 257 23 262 28 251 35 264 8041 6859 23 269 23 263 28 260 35 273 6859 5810 23 274 23 264 29 268 35 281 5810 4880 23*275 23 266 29*275 35 284 4880 4061 22*275 22 267 29*277 34 284 4061 3338 22 275 21 267 28 279 32 284 3338 2692 21 275 21 268 28 281 30 284 2692 2119 21 275 20 268 27 282 28 284 2119 1642 20 274 19 268 26 282 26 284 1642 1276 19 274 18 269 25 283 23 284 1276 1023 17 274 17 268 23 284 20 284 1023 870 15 274 15*269 20 284 17*284 870 783 11 273 11*269 14 284 11*283 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography