DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/27 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 57.6 - - 65.7 - - 66.8 - - 57.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 97 - - 151 - - 12 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1044 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1753 - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 696 - - 2865 - - 3364 - - 107 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 192 - - 92 - - 42 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 7 - - 12 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 040 - - 052 - - 063 - - 080 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1457 - - -3272 - - -3397 - - -1275 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3210 - - 4057 - - 4182 - - 2060 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10185 - - -6875 - - -7059 - - -8621 ODpotential blCL - - - 11938 - - 7660 - - 7844 - - 9406 blCL maxRH - - - 76 - - 74 - - 71 - - 75 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 57.6 - - 65.7 - - 66.8 - - 57.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 46.7 - - 51.0 - - 51.6 - - 51.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 56.4 - - 64.2 - - 66.4 - - 60.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 46.0 - - 50.2 - - 50.9 - - 51.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 97 - - 151 - - 12 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1044 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 - - 1 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96880 33 252 38 247 45 261 39 262 96880 89715 25 256 24 251 28 260 32 266 89715 84159 16 249 20 245 19 259 25 265 84159 79561 12 219 16 232 18 251 18 264 79561 75616 12 231 12 236 14 261 8 254 75616 72120 18 238 13 255 13 266 14 280 72120 68953 13 215 14 249 16 248 21 262 68953 66045 6 271 14 239 20 241 22 259 66045 63357 15 285 17 246 22 248 23 266 63357 60773 26 262 22 260 25 248 27 260 60773 58088 27 257 23 267 25 252 33 247 58088 55297 34 266 30 264 29 260 36 249 55297 52620 42 255 42 265 39 258 42 250 52620 50197 45 252 51 256 44 253 45 247 50197 48006 49 253 46 253 44 258 44 253 48006 46014 47 255 44 252 45 259 47 260 46014 44205 49 253 50 249 43 256 47 257 44205 42548 38 238 44 243 37 254 37 255 42548 41010 22 285 27 267 30 255 30 256 41010 39569 42 302 30 287 27 264 28 262 39569 38205 44 299 30 284 29 273 27 259 38205 36877 39 298 25 284 33 280 26 256 36877 35517 36 288 28 291 32 282 26 258 35517 34098 31 279 35 296 30 278 27 268 34098 32624 25 282 33 290 27 270 29 274 32624 31079 24 286 25 280 24 251 26 261 31079 29449 26 288 22 261 25 242 25 239 29449 27735 19 268 27 246 30 252 31 263 27735 25940 24 267 33 262 27 267 29 263 25940 24073 36 278 33 278 30 274 29 263 24073 22134 39 284 33 282 32 276 25 278 22134 20111 32 286 29 281 27 283 21 274 20111 18000 27 282 25 281 22 288 17 269 18000 15846 24 282 21 283 18 289 16 269 15846 13769 24 296 18 292 15 289 14 264 13769 11880 21 307 15 298 13 291 11 248 11880 10206 16 316 12 306 10 301 8 239 10206 8725 12 320 11 321 9 329 2 317 8725 7416 6 325 7 323 9 340 6 358 7416 6259 5 341 5 324 7 334 6 336 6259 5239 9 356 5 356 4 330 4 301 5239 4344 10 004 3 025 1 268 3 290 4344 3556 7 022 2 083 1 142 2 095 3556 2853 7 049 2 084 2 101 6 085 2853 2233 8*058 2 077 2 087 8 079 2233 1715 6*050 2 068 2 078 9 074 1715 1318 5 039 2 062 2 071 9 072 1318 1045 4 034 2 055 2 070 9 071 1045 879 4 032 2 051 2 065 6 073 879 785 3 032 1*052 2*063 4*080 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography