DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 03/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 28.8 - - 34.6 - - 37.4 - - 32.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 219 - - 310 - - 128 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2548 - - 3977 - - 3524 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2162 - - 3369 - - 2617 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3257 - - 4686 - - 4233 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1120 - - 1334 - - 2062 - - 2500 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 335 - - 438 - - 316 - - 20 W* B/S - - - 17 - - 10 - - 6 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 8 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 048 - - 159 - - 165 - - 134 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -4 - - -7 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1096 - - -236 - - -727 - - -2074 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4354 - - 4922 - - 4960 - - 2857 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -12079 - - -11072 - - -10050 - - -4168 ODpotential blCL - - - 15336 - - 15758 - - 14283 - - 4951 blCL maxRH - - - 83 - - 77 - - 80 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 28.8 - - 34.6 - - 37.4 - - 32.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 12.7 - - 16.0 - - 18.7 - - 23.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 26.9 - - 32.6 - - 36.2 - - 33.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 11.6 - - 14.8 - - 17.6 - - 22.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 219 - - 310 - - 128 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2548 - - 3977 - - 3524 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 34 - - 7 - - 19 - - 30 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96638 7 270 14 253 19 257 11 277 96638 89513 4 215 5 244 11 243 11 291 89513 84014 4 198 6 188 10 203 10 262 84014 79404 3 264 6 202 7 271 6 266 79404 75395 4 274 9 177 8 259 7 264 75395 71839 9 271 2 121 7 222 9 268 71839 68608 14 278 8 322 4 239 4 246 68608 65606 21 273 20 284 14 282 9 309 65606 62808 20 266 23 265 21 274 19 297 62808 60103 18 274 19 265 21 278 20 298 60103 57269 25 285 18 271 22 280 22 289 57269 54309 28 279 24 270 26 277 26 279 54309 51475 32 271 32 266 32 276 31 277 51475 48923 36 259 40 254 36 266 34 268 48923 46638 38 251 41 245 38 257 33 263 46638 44568 42 253 40 246 37 254 32 264 44568 42678 48 249 44 249 40 251 34 261 42678 40938 51 244 51 246 44 246 37 251 40938 39326 51 241 54 242 44 241 37 240 39326 37822 52 242 54 240 44 241 36 237 37822 36413 58 242 55 240 46 242 37 240 36413 35062 63 239 58 242 47 243 40 244 35062 33706 61 237 59 242 49 248 45 245 33706 32320 56 238 54 240 50 249 43 246 32320 30911 52 239 47 239 44 250 39 250 30911 29456 48 238 42 239 39 254 36 251 29456 27927 45 241 39 240 36 259 35 254 27927 26316 42 247 39 242 36 263 35 255 26316 24625 40 249 39 243 36 265 33 255 24625 22854 39 250 35 247 35 263 30 259 22854 21007 41 255 33 254 35 261 28 265 21007 19076 42 255 33 259 32 261 27 268 19076 17058 39 254 33 257 31 262 26 269 17058 14995 34 253 31 256 29 263 25 269 14995 13005 30 254 28 260 27 268 26 271 13005 11198 28 251 26 264 25 273 30 280 11198 9605 24 246 26 266 27 273 34 283 9605 8207 21 246 24 265 26 269 33 275 8207 6981 17 250 19 252 18 253 25 258 6981 5904 11 246 11 219 11 218 18 237 5904 4953 6 236 9*176 10*195 15 218 4953 4116 1 258 9*169 10*183 14 192 4116 3379 3*047 9 164 10 170 18 170 3379 2721 3*049 9 159 10 165 19 161 2721 2139 3 050 8 157 10 162 19 157 2139 1654 4 048 8 154 10 160 18 153 1654 1283 4 047 8 152 9 159 16 148 1283 1027 4 045 7 151 9 158 13 142 1027 872 3 047 7 151 8 156 10*138 872 783 3 047 6 152 7 155 5*134 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography