DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 49.2 - - 56.8 - - 57.5 - - 47.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 183 - - 25 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1142 - - 2596 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 913 - - 2131 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1851 - - 3305 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1257 - - 1241 - - 3763 - - 438 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 226 - - 320 - - 53 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 9 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 6 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 054 - - 041 - - 037 - - 088 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3797 - - -4133 - - -6449 - - -3431 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5649 - - 7439 - - 7235 - - 4216 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16927 - - -16018 - - -17378 - - -16770 ODpotential blCL - - - 18778 - - 19323 - - 18163 - - 17554 blCL maxRH - - - 48 - - 38 - - 41 - - 42 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 49.2 - - 56.8 - - 57.5 - - 47.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 27.8 - - 27.5 - - 29.2 - - 33.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 47.8 - - 55.2 - - 57.0 - - 50.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 26.7 - - 26.4 - - 28.1 - - 32.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 183 - - 25 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1142 - - 2596 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97680 3 194 8 259 17 245 14 265 97680 90390 17 250 12 240 20 263 8 246 90390 84779 17 219 16 241 14 248 9 256 84779 80109 8 216 14 244 14 245 13 260 80109 76084 8 275 9 194 16 249 12 258 76084 72530 10 293 4 254 12 243 15 263 72530 69319 10 286 13 260 12 238 15 248 69319 66369 10 291 12 227 11 245 13 267 66369 63633 20 285 15 248 19 260 18 271 63633 60989 20 246 18 245 16 253 14 250 60989 58239 16 277 17 276 16 281 17 289 58239 55401 30 271 25 274 21 261 19 274 55401 52688 22 273 24 270 15 261 23 309 52688 50226 20 293 23 283 25 301 31 302 50226 48011 22 296 24 291 26 301 28 301 48011 46012 27 301 19 305 17 314 15 346 46012 44192 25 301 20 342 22 001 26 023 44192 42510 20 341 34 349 37 359 39 014 42510 40949 29 359 39 350 40 359 43 008 40949 39493 36 003 40 360 38 011 38 018 39493 38121 38 005 42 007 42 020 37 036 38121 36793 37 004 41 007 45 021 35 036 36793 35438 36 004 40 002 42 020 30 022 35438 34026 37 005 39 356 38 008 31 009 34026 32557 38 004 40 356 40 356 30 006 32557 31015 37 002 39 358 39 355 29 004 31015 29389 35 001 35 359 35 001 30 005 29389 27684 35 359 29 355 29 004 29 008 27684 25900 33 354 28 345 24 001 23 010 25900 24034 31 349 27 341 23 355 20 007 24034 22088 30 347 25 342 22 351 18 008 22088 20055 28 351 22 346 21 349 17 015 20055 17928 24 358 18 357 20 350 17 014 17928 15755 20 001 17 009 19 356 17 003 15755 13662 19 003 19 019 19 013 18 007 13662 11764 22 008 23 026 21 035 19 035 11764 10084 24 010 25 028 23 046 20 051 10084 8601 26 013 26 026 24 046 19 051 8601 7296 25 022 24 024 24 038 19 047 7296 6149 22 032 20 027 22 032 18 047 6149 5143 18 040 16 033 17 030 15 050 5143 4263 16 047 12 042 9 024 10 044 4263 3490 15 053 7*042 7 029 7 029 3490 2802 14 057 7*042 6 032 5 034 2802 2196 11*058 7 041 6 033 5 056 2196 1691 6*055 6 041 6 035 6 072 1691 1304 6 053 6 040 5 035 6 079 1304 1038 5 054 5 039 5 036 6 082 1038 876 5 053 5 039 5*037 5 084 876 784 4 052 4 039 4*037 4*088 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography