DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 39.9 - - 49.3 - - 43.5 - - 42.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 41 - - 75 - - 15 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 768 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 784 - - 784 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1528 - - 2939 - - 1754 - - 986 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 59 - - 73 - - 44 - - 25 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 5 - - 3 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 177 - - 212 - - 162 - - 149 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4035 - - -5954 - - -676 - - -2081 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4818 - - 6738 - - 1460 - - 2864 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16440 - - -16682 - - -884 - - -13075 ODpotential blCL - - - 17223 - - 17466 - - 1668 - - 13858 blCL maxRH - - - 93 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 20 - - 10 - - 30 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 39.9 - - 49.3 - - 43.5 - - 42.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 22.0 - - 22.8 - - 40.2 - - 32.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 39.2 - - 48.3 - - 43.0 - - 42.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 21.2 - - 22.1 - - 39.6 - - 31.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 41 - - 75 - - 15 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 75 - - 75 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 71 - - 101 - - 100 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96053 65 253 59 261 67 257 62 265 96053 89022 46 255 49 265 49 264 51 262 89022 83563 41 270 40 259 41 271 39 269 83563 79023 41 281 34 264 38 277 37 277 79023 75115 35 276 37 270 39 282 33 274 75115 71644 31 269 35 269 38 285 29 272 71644 68474 33 270 32 273 35 281 29 283 68474 65544 36 266 33 274 33 275 36 286 65544 62828 37 272 35 269 35 272 39 282 62828 60193 44 277 41 272 39 268 45 282 60193 57430 49 275 45 277 43 266 48 271 57430 54543 51 275 51 273 44 267 45 268 54543 51777 54 271 55 269 46 270 43 272 51777 49297 56 274 59 269 46 277 43 277 49297 47086 68 269 64 270 57 282 51 276 47086 45079 64 260 68 269 66 278 60 275 45079 43235 54 261 63 268 64 275 60 269 43235 41536 65 280 57 269 61 273 80 271 41536 39971 72 285 72 277 78 277 90 270 39971 38532 78 285 80 270 87 272 95 271 38532 37196 82 283 76 268 84 272 95 270 37196 35909 81 281 77 271 82 272 89 269 35909 34595 76 280 82 272 83 271 83 268 34595 33226 82 281 84 270 85 269 74 269 33226 31804 82 277 86 270 85 267 63 268 31804 30312 77 273 85 277 84 267 57 268 30312 28737 70 271 74 277 80 268 57 267 28737 27079 67 274 72 278 76 267 58 267 27079 25337 69 281 72 277 71 268 60 268 25337 23513 66 288 64 274 57 272 61 270 23513 21609 54 292 56 274 51 277 62 270 21609 19623 45 283 54 274 50 278 58 264 19623 17553 51 270 53 275 52 275 50 253 17553 15442 52 268 49 285 54 276 43 253 15442 13409 42 270 46 282 52 282 42 260 13409 11562 38 271 44 271 47 283 41 259 11562 9925 37 275 44 267 43 281 39 261 9925 8478 35 281 42 265 44 276 36 268 8478 7199 30 279 36 262 40 266 34 272 7199 6067 27 272 28 262 32 250 29 260 6067 5070 24 269 22 264 25 234 26 246 5070 4200 18 268 16 269 19 235 23 225 4200 3438 12 258 11 260 13 225 20 206 3438 2760 9 231 8 217 11 199 18 197 2760 2164 8 204 8 213 9 182 19 182 2164 1669 7 188 7 212 7 172 19 167 1669 1291 5 184 7 211 5 166 16 160 1291 1031 3 180 7 211 5 164 12 157 1031 874 3 177 6 211 4*163 9 154 874 783 2*177 5*212 3*162 4*149 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography