DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 10/21 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.1 - - 61.3 - - 62.3 - - 52.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 165 - - 5 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 884 - - 2147 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 1773 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1593 - - 2856 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 936 - - 957 - - 3108 - - 201 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 191 - - 292 - - 36 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 9 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 353 - - 352 - - 350 - - 001 Direction Wind Shear - - - 2 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2695 - - -3594 - - -5786 - - -3307 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4288 - - 6450 - - 6572 - - 4092 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13099 - - -12912 - - -14238 - - -13797 ODpotential blCL - - - 14692 - - 15768 - - 15023 - - 14582 blCL maxRH - - - 58 - - 46 - - 39 - - 44 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.1 - - 61.3 - - 62.3 - - 52.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 38.5 - - 36.2 - - 36.7 - - 37.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 52.9 - - 59.8 - - 62.2 - - 56.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.4 - - 35.1 - - 35.7 - - 36.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 113 - - 165 - - 5 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 884 - - 2147 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97397 12 252 15 275 13 288 6 296 97397 90129 6 298 8 285 9 313 8 305 90129 84546 8 302 8 270 11 308 9 302 84546 79919 6 271 6 256 9 295 9 323 79919 75937 3 314 4 253 9 271 13 322 75937 72424 10 336 1 091 7 245 13 311 72424 69245 10 328 7 335 8 291 13 312 69245 66326 11 318 11 328 10 304 9 310 66326 63623 14 319 14 323 14 316 7 318 63623 61007 15 302 15 315 17 306 11 296 61007 58287 13 304 13 316 15 297 16 282 58287 55471 16 323 14 312 16 288 20 283 55471 52779 17 312 16 301 19 285 20 289 52779 50344 15 297 18 291 21 287 20 299 50344 48144 12 302 16 286 18 288 20 302 48144 46131 13 315 13 292 15 293 18 302 46131 44275 17 311 13 301 14 301 17 307 44275 42547 17 303 15 297 13 308 18 314 42547 40930 15 306 16 288 13 300 19 317 40930 39408 14 320 15 284 15 287 19 315 39408 37973 14 329 13 288 16 283 17 298 37973 36585 12 337 10 294 15 285 17 278 36585 35176 10 354 7 301 13 287 16 274 35176 33717 5 005 5 300 10 286 14 280 33717 32216 4 254 7 275 8 281 9 273 32216 30668 9 246 11 258 10 270 6 261 30668 29062 8 259 11 256 12 260 9 257 29062 27387 6 254 9 273 11 272 11 255 27387 25630 3 251 7 276 8 287 9 267 25630 23793 3 279 5 276 7 283 10 274 23793 21881 4 285 7 274 8 285 10 274 21881 19892 3 282 7 276 8 292 7 275 19892 17813 5 003 3 309 7 299 5 265 17813 15686 7 043 2 083 4 298 4 263 15686 13634 8 070 3 110 2 274 3 264 13634 11768 8 076 3 094 2 313 4 286 11768 10111 7 061 3 035 5 340 6 326 10111 8643 10 039 6 031 7 342 10 335 8643 7343 14 037 9 034 8 349 13 334 7343 6195 17 035 13 028 10 358 15 336 6195 5186 17 027 15 020 13 359 16 344 5186 4301 16 015 16 007 15 350 19 342 4301 3523 15 006 13*356 14 341 19 341 3523 2828 13 010 10*352 12 342 16 345 2828 2215 12 013 9 352 11 345 13 351 2215 1703 10*008 9 352 10 347 11 358 1703 1311 7*355 8 352 10 348 9 006 1311 1041 6 353 8 352 8 349 7 010 1041 878 6 352 7 352 7*349 4*002 878 785 5 352 6 352 5*350 3*001 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography