DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/07 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 55.4 - - 63.0 - - 62.2 - - 57.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 105 - - 173 - - -17 - - -46 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1037 - - 2117 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 1754 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1746 - - 2826 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1096 - - 973 - - 2889 - - 819 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 194 - - 291 - - 22 - - 16 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 19 - - 24 - - 12 - - 8 BL Wind Direction - - - 195 - - 192 - - 180 - - 175 Direction Wind Shear - - - 12 - - 14 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - -5 - - -4 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3068 - - -2425 - - -3989 - - -2639 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4815 - - 5251 - - 4774 - - 3424 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -10127 - - -7406 - - -9606 - - -7876 ODpotential blCL - - - 11873 - - 10232 - - 10391 - - 8661 blCL maxRH - - - 64 - - 87 - - 65 - - 82 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 55.4 - - 63.0 - - 62.2 - - 57.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 37.3 - - 42.8 - - 44.0 - - 44.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 54.4 - - 61.8 - - 62.2 - - 58.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.0 - - 42.5 - - 43.8 - - 44.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 105 - - 173 - - -17 - - -46 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1037 - - 2117 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 47 - - 0 - - 29 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96742 2 210 9 279 11 297 8 335 96742 89506 9 247 14 255 16 291 10 292 89506 83907 11 253 17 257 19 268 18 264 83907 79249 16 277 17 269 17 257 15 272 79249 75225 23 266 21 267 20 270 20 279 75225 71680 25 251 27 258 29 270 22 282 71680 68480 22 261 24 252 32 265 23 277 68480 65531 28 269 21 260 32 256 30 270 65531 62797 34 272 27 263 33 256 32 258 62797 60155 37 271 38 262 33 263 26 257 60155 57380 45 260 43 258 33 261 28 271 57380 54475 50 258 44 259 37 250 46 263 54475 51710 56 260 47 260 45 247 62 249 51710 49241 64 257 56 258 64 251 69 249 49241 47034 64 252 69 251 80 247 81 248 47034 45032 58 253 72 250 79 241 86 243 45032 43194 61 262 78 253 75 241 80 241 43194 41498 73 260 84 252 83 243 84 242 41498 39936 77 256 85 250 89 236 95 238 39936 38490 76 256 89 245 87 235 98 232 38490 37136 79 259 90 242 91 235 95 226 37136 35830 74 255 89 243 91 233 94 226 35830 34503 67 250 83 243 90 234 93 228 34503 33123 66 249 76 244 89 236 92 231 33123 31692 67 251 74 246 88 238 92 231 31692 30195 66 251 75 248 86 239 90 230 30195 28618 64 249 75 248 83 239 87 230 28618 26963 63 247 74 247 80 239 82 233 26963 25229 62 250 71 245 78 241 75 236 25229 23420 58 251 65 244 73 243 66 238 23420 21542 53 248 58 245 65 245 62 238 21542 19594 50 243 55 246 59 243 58 237 19594 17565 47 239 54 243 58 242 53 237 17565 15494 44 238 49 241 56 240 49 240 15494 13495 38 240 44 240 52 237 46 242 13495 11674 35 242 43 237 50 237 47 246 11674 10054 34 240 44 234 50 240 45 251 10054 8615 33 239 43 233 51 243 42 255 8615 7336 34 243 41 234 50 243 41 253 7336 6201 36 246 40 235 45 237 43 246 6201 5197 36 239 39 230 40 224 41 239 5197 4312 38 225 38 219 38 213 35 231 4312 3530 40 214 34*210 36 205 35 219 3530 2832 36 209 27*196 32 195 38 210 2832 2216 29*204 26 193 30 190 38 202 2216 1704 23*197 25 191 27 187 32 195 1704 1311 21 196 24 190 24 185 26 189 1311 1042 18 195 22 189 21 183 19 182 1042 878 16 193 19 188 17 182 15*179 878 785 11 193 13 188 12*180 8*175 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography