DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/09 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.2 - - 58.8 - - 57.2 - - 48.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 109 - - 184 - - 5 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2917 - - 4980 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2073 - - 3885 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3626 - - 5689 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1890 - - 1244 - - 5335 - - 2504 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 280 - - 397 - - 35 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 20 - - 22 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 293 - - 300 - - 311 - - 321 Direction Wind Shear - - - 15 - - 12 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 8 - - 7 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -758 - - -30 - - -4903 - - -2894 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4385 - - 5719 - - 5688 - - 3679 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8864 - - -7137 - - -12225 - - -13243 ODpotential blCL - - - 12490 - - 12826 - - 13010 - - 14028 blCL maxRH - - - 84 - - 86 - - 71 - - 71 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.2 - - 58.8 - - 57.2 - - 48.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 37.8 - - 36.5 - - 35.1 - - 35.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 53.3 - - 57.5 - - 57.0 - - 51.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 37.1 - - 35.8 - - 34.6 - - 35.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 109 - - 184 - - 5 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2917 - - 4980 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 36 - - 44 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96403 74 245 83 246 88 250 74 251 96403 89120 48 260 48 255 53 249 57 256 89120 83588 32 268 27 251 43 253 35 278 83588 79043 24 279 17 254 27 251 25 274 79043 75116 18 279 12 266 14 257 20 263 75116 71624 19 256 19 270 20 273 20 271 71624 68465 17 254 18 262 15 248 15 270 68465 65544 9 279 13 282 12 267 11 281 65544 62808 25 288 35 294 29 286 33 286 62808 60172 34 271 38 274 39 276 41 274 60172 57444 20 262 23 261 32 264 34 269 57444 54606 7 284 15 248 28 268 38 274 54606 51881 27 303 33 299 35 286 46 283 51881 49410 54 295 57 298 53 296 53 284 49410 47185 64 292 73 292 66 292 59 286 47185 45173 66 289 75 285 69 289 65 286 45173 43349 67 287 65 286 68 291 63 284 43349 41680 69 292 65 292 68 294 61 289 41680 40133 75 297 74 292 72 294 65 293 40133 38686 81 294 82 288 77 290 69 291 38686 37326 81 288 83 285 78 288 72 290 37326 36015 73 287 81 285 76 290 74 289 36015 34683 68 295 78 289 75 294 75 288 34683 33301 70 298 76 293 74 296 74 290 33301 31867 75 294 75 296 72 297 71 291 31867 30366 80 292 76 297 71 298 70 293 30366 28781 81 293 77 295 71 299 70 295 28781 27114 76 291 81 295 70 300 67 297 27114 25366 72 289 85 298 70 303 64 299 25366 23540 72 290 85 303 70 307 63 303 23540 21640 73 292 80 306 69 310 62 306 21640 19662 73 293 76 308 66 313 62 307 19662 17599 70 293 73 307 65 315 62 308 17599 15491 66 295 72 306 66 314 62 310 15491 13455 63 298 70 306 66 315 58 314 13455 11602 61 297 65 305 61 316 51 318 11602 9957 58 299 58 304 53 317 45 318 9957 8503 53 302 48 302 47 314 38 315 8503 7223 49 304 34 298 40 307 33 310 7223 6095 44 302 24*297 29 299 30 302 6095 5105 38 300 24*298 22 301 28 293 5105 4239 30*298 24 299 22 303 24 291 4239 3477 26*296 23 300 21 305 22 298 3477 2795 23 294 23 301 20 307 20 307 2795 2192 20 293 22 301 20 308 18 315 2192 1689 19 292 22 302 19 309 17 320 1689 1303 18 291 21 302 17 310 14 324 1303 1037 16 291 19 302 16 310 11 326 1037 876 14 291 17 302 13*311 8*325 876 785 10 290 12 302 9*311 3*321 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography