DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 08/09 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 81.8 - - 86.3 - - 88.8 - - 83.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 127 - - 176 - - 72 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2318 - - 4758 - - 5605 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1798 - - 3748 - - 3789 - - 771 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3027 - - 5467 - - 6314 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2800 - - 1815 - - 2212 - - 4961 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 281 - - 398 - - 321 - - 15 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 7 - - 7 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 10 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 307 - - 289 - - 289 - - 011 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 7 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 5 - - 3 - - 15 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -346 - - -570 - - -899 - - -3650 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3373 - - 6037 - - 7214 - - 4438 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -1420 - - -4251 - - -4174 - - -5649 ODpotential blCL - - - 4447 - - 9718 - - 10488 - - 6436 blCL maxRH - - - 81 - - 67 - - 68 - - 74 maxRH CAPE - - - 1410 - - 310 - - 180 - - 990 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 81.8 - - 86.3 - - 88.8 - - 83.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 69.4 - - 62.5 - - 60.0 - - 66.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 80.6 - - 84.9 - - 88.0 - - 85.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 68.7 - - 61.4 - - 58.9 - - 65.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 127 - - 176 - - 72 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2318 - - 4758 - - 5605 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 23 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 15 - - 11 - - 10 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99431 30 093 26 096 22 077 29 070 99431 91936 29 093 26 096 26 072 29 078 91936 86171 28 087 25 097 25 084 24 090 86171 81389 23 080 22 083 25 104 18 085 81389 77254 19 082 18 084 19 098 10 086 77254 73578 15 065 15 094 8 101 8 074 73578 70244 10 063 10 093 7 100 6 054 70244 67191 7 059 6 082 4 050 4 064 67191 64374 3 110 3 127 2 168 3 142 64374 61670 4 143 7 193 4 228 1 063 61670 58865 5 275 10 196 9 218 5 293 58865 55978 14 261 16 240 17 238 18 256 55978 53251 18 252 20 250 20 245 25 257 53251 50812 26 259 27 247 29 257 34 264 50812 48622 31 256 35 258 36 259 37 260 48622 46626 38 249 41 260 43 263 42 260 46626 44799 40 243 45 254 48 257 44 252 44799 43110 40 251 47 250 50 252 39 255 43110 41536 44 262 49 254 50 252 37 262 41536 40061 45 265 51 251 45 250 37 260 40061 38669 46 260 50 249 34 253 29 262 38669 37316 50 255 46 252 31 259 25 271 37316 35934 49 253 38 257 28 261 26 273 35934 34493 47 247 34 258 26 269 28 271 34493 32997 48 247 30 257 25 268 25 272 32997 31432 49 257 27 252 23 260 21 273 31432 29787 40 265 29 245 24 254 22 272 29787 28063 28 257 28 243 26 254 23 273 28063 26257 30 250 27 247 24 259 21 279 26257 24371 31 255 28 254 21 267 20 283 24371 22412 30 263 30 262 20 280 18 283 22412 20378 25 274 31 272 19 290 13 273 20378 18264 21 284 25 279 20 287 10 285 18264 16111 20 283 22 280 20 280 13 297 16111 14035 23 270 20 275 18 280 16 291 14035 12149 23 261 19 271 18 281 17 280 12149 10474 21 268 19 277 20 282 20 267 10474 8985 20 280 20 283 19 274 20 254 8985 7659 17 289 20 281 14 263 15 239 7659 6477 14 299 15*276 12*265 10 228 6477 5429 11 309 12*279 11*270 7 229 5429 4503 11 312 12 282 10 279 4 242 4503 3684 12*309 11 286 9 286 3 284 3684 2951 12*307 10 290 9 292 3 326 2951 2302 12 307 10 293 9 297 5 344 2302 1761 12 307 9 296 8 300 5 352 1761 1346 11 307 9 298 8 303 6 356 1346 1060 10 308 8 299 7 304 6 000 1060 886 9 307 8 299 7 305 5 004 886 787 7 308 6 300 6 306 3*011 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography