DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 10/29 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 61.1 - - 69.5 - - 70.8 - - 58.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 69 - - 120 - - -2 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 1796 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 1361 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 2505 - - 786 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1243 - - 1828 - - 4794 - - 135 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 72 - - 249 - - 24 - - 11 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 10 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 207 - - 212 - - 181 - - 175 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -3 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1839 - - -2389 - - -4622 - - -1559 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 2624 - - 4894 - - 5409 - - 2345 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5608 - - -6312 - - -7494 - - -7233 ODpotential blCL - - - 6393 - - 8817 - - 8280 - - 8018 blCL maxRH - - - 78 - - 61 - - 62 - - 61 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 61.1 - - 69.5 - - 70.8 - - 58.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 52.6 - - 51.0 - - 50.1 - - 51.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 60.2 - - 68.1 - - 71.0 - - 61.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.8 - - 50.0 - - 49.1 - - 51.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 69 - - 120 - - -2 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 1796 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97020 55 246 63 255 66 260 61 256 97020 89785 46 246 47 249 53 261 48 267 89785 84204 37 245 29 244 39 253 38 265 84204 79577 25 245 18 247 25 247 32 255 79577 75591 20 252 16 268 18 262 24 257 75591 72079 22 267 16 269 16 260 20 261 72079 68910 20 265 17 274 20 260 19 274 68910 65998 22 280 22 271 25 258 19 274 65998 63292 30 273 25 255 24 246 25 270 63292 60666 29 260 29 261 30 262 32 270 60666 57935 32 265 44 269 41 261 45 265 57935 55110 39 268 50 270 45 261 52 252 55110 52402 51 265 56 275 53 272 51 255 52402 49948 50 264 67 271 68 273 61 276 49948 47734 50 268 66 266 69 270 78 272 47734 45718 48 269 58 261 64 265 70 265 45718 43875 48 270 52 257 58 259 64 265 43875 42187 50 266 51 257 55 255 59 264 42187 40632 52 262 50 257 53 255 51 264 40632 39185 48 260 42 263 51 258 45 266 39185 37821 41 264 40 263 47 261 44 265 37821 36498 38 270 37 261 39 265 38 264 36498 35150 36 272 31 263 36 265 35 269 35150 33748 35 270 29 271 34 264 34 270 33748 32293 33 266 31 275 30 267 33 269 32293 30771 33 263 30 273 29 273 32 271 30771 29170 28 255 26 272 28 273 32 272 29170 27487 22 243 23 265 25 274 31 275 27487 25720 21 237 21 253 23 269 30 277 25720 23876 20 244 22 253 24 265 29 272 23876 21965 20 251 24 258 24 265 25 270 21965 19980 23 255 23 263 24 265 25 271 19980 17900 25 251 25 257 26 260 24 275 17900 15769 26 243 28 251 29 259 21 282 15769 13716 23 238 28 240 28 257 17 294 13716 11859 18 244 26 237 26 257 19 322 11859 10213 17 256 20 244 23 267 26 332 10213 8750 17 265 17 257 20 286 26 327 8750 7446 14 270 16 269 19 298 23 321 7446 6289 11 280 14 276 18 293 19 310 6289 5268 9 291 12 277 14 280 16 290 5268 4370 8 296 10 272 10 266 13 269 4370 3579 7 295 8 262 8 243 12 259 3579 2870 6 288 6*232 7 215 12 252 2870 2244 6 251 5*214 6 203 12 239 2244 1721 8 217 5 212 6 197 12 220 1721 1321 6 211 4 212 5 191 12 200 1321 1046 6 209 4 210 5 188 11 187 1046 880 5 209 4 209 4*185 9 180 880 785 4*207 3 210 3*181 5*175 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography