DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/11 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 32.0 - - 33.2 - - 32.4 - - 25.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 85 - - 120 - - 14 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 4542 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 766 - - 3280 - - 767 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top - - - 783 - - 5251 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 5085 - - 1115 - - 5119 - - 3854 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 75 - - 332 - - 42 - - 11 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 12 - - 23 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 296 - - 289 - - 287 - - 243 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 7 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3548 - - 628 - - -3948 - - -2370 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4331 - - 4623 - - 4732 - - 3154 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3501 - - 344 - - -4372 - - -3943 ODpotential blCL - - - 4284 - - 4907 - - 5155 - - 4726 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 98 - - 85 - - 87 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 32.0 - - 33.2 - - 32.4 - - 25.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 15.8 - - 15.6 - - 14.4 - - 14.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 31.3 - - 32.3 - - 32.0 - - 28.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 15.2 - - 15.2 - - 14.0 - - 14.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 85 - - 120 - - 14 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 74 - - 4542 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 91 - - 91 - - 39 - - 50 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95187 96 229 107 242 89 240 81 237 95187 88118 77 246 71 241 69 245 75 254 88118 82725 61 252 59 245 69 250 60 249 82725 78269 38 242 48 234 54 242 37 236 78269 74340 32 252 37 218 42 220 38 255 74340 70799 48 266 38 261 45 260 59 275 70799 67598 62 264 62 264 62 262 79 269 67598 64682 63 261 67 260 65 258 74 258 64682 61979 62 260 64 258 57 254 57 260 61979 59330 63 254 61 254 52 262 55 264 59330 56529 62 250 59 254 60 266 60 262 56529 53596 62 252 63 258 67 257 64 257 53596 50780 66 256 69 258 67 250 62 256 50780 48233 69 259 70 254 61 251 62 261 48233 45943 72 259 67 251 61 255 66 266 45943 43861 72 259 64 251 64 260 71 269 43861 41950 69 258 63 253 68 264 75 271 41950 40188 66 258 63 257 72 268 80 274 40188 38556 66 259 65 262 76 271 86 276 38556 37039 68 260 69 264 80 272 91 278 37039 35623 71 259 74 265 83 272 95 278 35623 34269 75 257 78 263 84 271 96 278 34269 32906 79 254 78 261 83 269 95 278 32906 31504 82 251 74 262 79 266 96 281 31504 30070 81 249 71 263 71 266 100 285 30070 28592 76 250 70 265 66 271 107 288 28592 27057 71 255 69 268 66 279 110 289 27057 25464 70 259 66 272 73 283 99 287 25464 23813 64 256 64 274 78 284 86 285 23813 22100 49 255 60 269 75 284 80 283 22100 20321 42 259 53 261 66 283 74 281 20321 18468 40 261 49 262 57 279 66 279 18468 16538 39 265 49 270 50 276 55 278 16538 14575 38 269 49 274 46 277 45 277 14575 12685 37 274 44 277 44 279 41 277 12685 10965 36 281 40 282 43 281 39 278 10965 9434 37 288 39 288 43 283 38 280 9434 8075 37 294 39 290 42 284 37 283 8075 6872 36 298 32 288 38 282 35 283 6872 5813 31 300 25*287 31 279 34 284 5813 4882 28 300 25*287 26 281 32 288 4882 4064 28 299 25 288 25 283 29 292 4064 3341 27 299 24 289 24 284 26 294 3341 2694 26 299 24 289 23 285 23 294 2694 2121 25 298 23 290 22 286 19 293 2121 1643 24 297 23 290 21 287 15 290 1643 1276 22 297 22 290 19 287 11 284 1276 1023 20 297 20 290 17 287 8 274 1023 870 17*296 17 290 14*287 6*261 870 783 12*296 12 290 10*287 4*243 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography