DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/10 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0949z - - 0954z - - 1001z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 57.8 - - 66.7 - - 64.7 - - 55.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 74 - - 134 - - -15 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 3208 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 2413 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 3917 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1834 - - 1347 - - 4732 - - 95 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 73 - - 310 - - 23 - - 6 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 14 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 225 - - 274 - - 285 - - 237 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - 4 - - 2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5096 - - -4473 - - -6147 - - -3096 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5881 - - 8391 - - 6932 - - 3881 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -12154 - - -10962 - - -11589 - - -10454 ODpotential blCL - - - 12939 - - 14879 - - 12374 - - 11239 blCL maxRH - - - 44 - - 49 - - 57 - - 78 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 57.8 - - 66.7 - - 64.7 - - 55.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 35.2 - - 32.7 - - 37.2 - - 41.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 56.9 - - 65.4 - - 65.2 - - 59.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 34.4 - - 31.8 - - 36.5 - - 40.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 74 - - 134 - - -15 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 3208 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 12 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96447 72 246 72 244 81 248 79 250 96447 89219 47 247 50 248 52 254 50 265 89219 83711 28 262 35 250 34 254 37 271 83711 79109 19 259 26 263 26 255 25 261 79109 75119 14 261 23 262 23 263 23 258 75119 71584 16 287 18 264 19 258 19 266 71584 68393 18 291 13 276 18 257 23 275 68393 65464 14 259 10 240 21 260 30 275 65464 62740 31 268 33 270 35 265 37 270 62740 60097 45 272 44 273 47 269 44 269 60097 57349 51 276 51 271 55 271 52 273 57349 54504 57 275 59 266 64 270 64 272 54504 51793 61 267 63 263 68 264 71 264 51793 49360 60 263 64 263 68 263 73 263 49360 47182 61 266 66 267 70 268 76 268 47182 45201 68 271 72 272 78 271 81 271 45201 43387 76 273 81 272 86 270 87 271 43387 41719 82 272 87 269 87 268 89 269 41719 40176 83 270 87 265 85 269 86 267 40176 38735 82 270 85 265 83 269 82 268 38735 37380 79 272 84 266 81 269 79 268 37380 36068 78 273 83 267 80 268 78 268 36068 34731 76 272 82 267 79 267 77 269 34731 33341 74 270 80 267 78 267 75 272 33341 31900 74 272 78 268 78 268 74 274 31900 30394 74 275 76 269 77 268 72 275 30394 28809 74 277 75 269 75 268 69 276 28809 27146 71 277 73 269 74 267 67 275 27146 25404 68 276 71 269 73 268 68 275 25404 23582 65 274 69 270 71 271 67 276 23582 21684 64 274 66 271 67 276 63 279 21684 19707 60 275 61 273 61 278 56 280 19707 17648 53 274 54 274 53 276 48 279 17648 15553 47 272 48 274 46 274 39 279 15553 13536 44 272 41 273 40 276 32 282 13536 11701 43 273 39 275 37 281 30 281 11701 10069 41 272 38 280 35 283 31 281 10069 8620 38 272 38 285 34 286 31 284 8620 7335 34 273 38 288 34 291 29 289 7335 6199 30 273 37 287 33 292 27 295 6199 5195 27 272 30 283 30 289 26 298 5195 4314 24 269 20*275 24 284 27 298 4314 3535 21 262 16*273 18 281 26 294 3535 2838 18 249 16 273 17 281 24 289 2838 2222 17 231 15 274 16 282 20 286 2222 1708 15 227 14 274 15 283 16 283 1708 1314 12 225 13 274 13 284 12 279 1314 1043 11 225 12 274 12 285 8 269 1043 879 9*225 11 274 9 284 6*253 879 785 7*225 8 275 6*285 4*237 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography