DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/13 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 42.6 - - 44.5 - - 44.8 - - 41.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 86 - - 126 - - 17 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 3209 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 767 - - 2366 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 784 - - 3918 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 4500 - - 1621 - - 5640 - - 5374 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 76 - - 302 - - 46 - - 17 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 17 - - 8 - - 7 BL Wind Direction - - - 334 - - 334 - - 324 - - 325 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 4 - - 6 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2572 - - -179 - - -3898 - - -2658 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3356 - - 4097 - - 4682 - - 3442 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -2552 - - -542 - - -4033 - - -2941 ODpotential blCL - - - 3336 - - 4460 - - 4817 - - 3725 blCL maxRH - - - 98 - - 99 - - 96 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 42.6 - - 44.5 - - 44.8 - - 41.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 30.5 - - 29.2 - - 26.9 - - 29.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 41.8 - - 43.5 - - 44.5 - - 41.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 30.1 - - 28.6 - - 26.5 - - 29.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 86 - - 126 - - 17 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 75 - - 3209 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 92 - - 95 - - 83 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96287 61 240 70 249 69 254 68 256 96287 89031 42 249 45 252 44 243 42 257 89031 83521 29 236 29 252 30 255 24 245 83521 78935 15 257 23 252 30 260 21 263 78935 74973 18 257 21 228 27 239 24 264 74973 71459 19 286 11 214 14 227 25 242 71459 68240 30 273 16 277 15 255 19 242 68240 65253 27 255 23 278 21 240 25 251 65253 62483 20 268 23 277 19 246 27 243 62483 59794 29 268 25 268 23 257 22 241 59794 56960 37 264 31 260 30 258 24 257 56960 53988 43 265 41 254 36 253 31 251 53988 51130 49 256 48 249 40 251 33 245 51130 48545 51 243 54 245 45 250 35 250 48545 46226 51 235 58 238 49 242 41 250 46226 44125 50 235 59 233 52 236 44 248 44125 42202 49 242 56 230 54 236 44 247 42202 40431 54 247 51 230 53 237 45 247 40431 38793 60 246 49 234 50 237 45 242 38793 37272 63 238 52 238 47 235 41 236 37272 35848 63 230 57 233 46 236 37 241 35848 34479 58 230 56 227 47 234 40 242 34479 33099 54 236 54 227 48 231 41 235 33099 31687 53 236 55 229 49 230 41 233 31687 30253 48 230 56 232 51 229 44 229 30253 28779 43 233 57 236 53 230 44 223 28779 27252 42 241 55 237 53 231 43 222 27252 25666 40 244 49 236 48 231 41 226 25666 24013 35 249 44 235 45 232 34 229 24013 22294 32 258 41 237 42 235 27 233 22294 20508 31 256 37 240 35 238 25 240 20508 18647 24 259 34 244 28 246 25 245 18647 16710 18 267 26 248 25 257 22 251 16710 14741 13 296 21 256 23 259 18 255 14741 12846 15 310 16 257 19 263 14 279 12846 11121 14 312 16 286 12 289 19 310 11121 9583 18 327 18 316 14 329 22 306 9583 8214 26 332 23 337 16 334 21 308 8214 6998 28 336 23 335 17 320 22 313 6998 5924 25 344 20 331 19 311 22 315 5924 4977 24 346 19 330 19 312 22 317 4977 4142 23 341 19*330 18 315 21 318 4142 3403 22 337 18*332 18 317 20 320 3403 2741 22 337 18 333 17 319 19 323 2741 2155 21 336 18 334 17 321 18 324 2155 1666 20 336 17 335 16 322 17 325 1666 1289 19 336 17 336 15 323 15 325 1289 1031 17 335 16 336 14 323 13 325 1031 874 15*335 14 336 12*323 11*326 874 784 11*334 10 335 8*324 7*325 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography