DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 41.1 - - 45.3 - - 45.4 - - 38.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 140 - - 248 - - 24 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3522 - - 4239 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2655 - - 3465 - - 767 - - 767 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4231 - - 4948 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1333 - - 1218 - - 5336 - - 3183 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 323 - - 412 - - 49 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 23 - - 20 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 305 - - 299 - - 301 - - 304 Direction Wind Shear - - - 14 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 7 - - 6 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -995 - - -1959 - - -6046 - - -4175 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5227 - - 6907 - - 6830 - - 4959 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13107 - - -12889 - - -16929 - - -16769 ODpotential blCL - - - 17338 - - 17837 - - 17713 - - 17553 blCL maxRH - - - 67 - - 60 - - 59 - - 56 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 41.1 - - 45.3 - - 45.4 - - 38.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 20.9 - - 17.6 - - 18.2 - - 19.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 40.1 - - 43.8 - - 44.9 - - 40.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 20.0 - - 17.1 - - 17.8 - - 19.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 140 - - 248 - - 24 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3522 - - 4239 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95930 67 239 61 248 69 250 66 246 95930 88913 45 242 51 249 53 255 41 252 88913 83463 41 263 44 262 44 268 40 276 83463 78920 38 266 40 266 41 278 42 284 78920 75013 26 250 23 228 29 255 33 271 75013 71536 24 269 21 255 28 216 26 264 71536 68350 42 282 47 290 33 278 36 280 68350 65409 40 289 48 287 43 287 43 278 65409 62691 41 263 31 273 39 280 43 276 62691 60063 30 244 28 253 40 273 44 277 60063 57314 27 267 34 276 43 272 48 279 57314 54450 52 285 49 284 49 279 57 284 54450 51706 63 292 58 282 63 283 66 285 51706 49227 73 288 65 281 69 282 69 284 49227 47003 79 282 69 282 70 281 74 282 47003 44989 80 281 71 285 73 281 80 279 44989 43150 81 282 76 284 79 285 78 277 43150 41460 82 283 84 284 89 287 79 279 41460 39898 83 285 93 286 96 286 87 277 39898 38444 87 287 103 288 97 284 90 274 38444 37076 95 287 112 289 99 282 91 275 37076 35752 102 287 116 289 99 282 94 276 35752 34404 103 286 118 289 99 285 96 277 34404 33005 101 288 120 289 103 288 96 280 33005 31555 100 289 120 289 105 288 96 282 31555 30037 99 290 114 290 105 288 95 282 30037 28439 100 291 107 289 105 288 93 281 28439 26762 100 293 103 288 101 288 93 284 26762 25010 99 294 100 289 96 287 89 285 25010 23186 95 293 93 289 93 287 82 285 23186 21291 91 293 87 290 88 288 78 288 21291 19318 90 293 84 291 81 290 73 291 19318 17265 90 292 82 294 74 291 68 293 17265 15171 88 293 80 297 71 293 64 293 15171 13155 83 297 76 299 68 296 61 294 13155 11327 75 300 71 300 63 298 58 296 11327 9713 65 304 62 301 58 300 53 298 9713 8295 54 306 51 301 52 299 48 297 8295 7051 44 309 40 299 42 295 42 296 7051 5960 36 312 29 296 29 292 34 293 5960 5001 31*310 22*297 22 293 29 292 5001 4159 26*307 22*298 21 295 26 295 4159 3415 25 306 21 298 20 297 24 300 3415 2748 24 305 21 299 20 298 22 305 2748 2160 24 305 21 300 19 299 20 308 2160 1668 23 305 20 300 18 300 17 311 1668 1290 21 304 19 300 17 301 14 313 1290 1031 19 304 18 300 16 301 11 313 1031 874 17 304 16 300 13*301 7*310 874 784 12 303 12 300 9*301 4*304 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography