DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/15 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 49.6 - - 53.9 - - 54.7 - - 52.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 115 - - 50 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1574 - - 1546 - - 75 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1308 - - 1105 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2283 - - 2255 - - 784 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 744 - - 788 - - 1956 - - 1067 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 253 - - 232 - - 64 - - 13 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 19 - - 18 - - 10 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 132 - - 139 - - 126 - - 116 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -6 - - -8 - - -3 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1777 - - -493 - - -1244 - - -605 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4060 - - 2749 - - 2028 - - 1391 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9872 - - -3526 - - -3428 - - -4663 ODpotential blCL - - - 12155 - - 5781 - - 4212 - - 5448 blCL maxRH - - - 86 - - 99 - - 99 - - 99 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 49.6 - - 53.9 - - 54.7 - - 52.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 34.9 - - 44.8 - - 48.7 - - 49.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.4 - - 52.9 - - 54.0 - - 53.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 33.9 - - 44.1 - - 48.2 - - 49.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 148 - - 115 - - 50 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1574 - - 1546 - - 75 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 45 - - 97 - - 97 - - 94 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96596 30 257 23 262 31 254 27 272 96596 89366 14 242 16 249 23 267 24 270 89366 83789 8 287 13 274 17 274 16 292 83789 79146 12 286 18 283 16 270 12 316 79146 75127 12 247 16 273 13 284 7 291 75127 71576 6 268 15 281 15 291 9 263 71576 68368 19 286 19 273 19 282 14 283 68368 65434 26 266 17 271 22 260 16 281 65434 62725 28 272 21 279 22 266 16 282 62725 60092 40 282 32 281 23 266 17 260 60092 57316 44 278 38 272 27 247 29 230 57316 54424 48 257 45 252 39 247 37 237 54424 51683 48 261 49 252 48 249 44 244 51683 49236 56 261 55 257 55 260 53 253 49236 47047 61 255 62 256 60 255 61 250 47047 45058 59 256 64 251 65 248 64 246 45058 43237 60 258 63 248 68 243 65 241 43237 41569 60 254 62 249 65 240 66 239 41569 40033 53 245 61 248 62 241 66 237 40033 38608 49 239 64 243 59 244 64 231 38608 37268 48 236 65 240 58 244 64 232 37268 35964 45 230 62 239 60 244 64 235 35964 34633 47 227 56 240 61 243 62 235 34633 33245 51 229 54 243 58 242 61 234 33245 31802 53 233 55 247 56 243 59 234 31802 30290 52 238 56 250 53 242 57 233 30290 28701 48 242 52 247 49 238 53 228 28701 27037 41 242 47 234 47 232 54 221 27037 25301 35 238 44 232 52 228 55 219 25301 23495 35 238 43 231 55 227 51 220 23495 21616 37 237 43 227 50 226 48 221 21616 19657 37 230 38 223 45 224 45 220 19657 17612 32 220 37 222 43 219 43 223 17612 15520 33 218 41 217 42 211 41 223 15520 13501 37 214 41 213 39 209 41 219 13501 11666 41 213 39 212 38 207 46 215 11666 10040 40 207 38 205 37 201 51 209 10040 8597 35 203 36 194 37 194 46 199 8597 7316 34 194 38 182 39 188 46 190 7316 6181 36 183 40 176 39 183 44 184 6181 5176 37 173 40 174 37 178 40 178 5176 4292 38 163 38 172 34 171 36 168 4292 3512 36 152 34 165 30 164 34 155 3512 2816 30*142 28*154 27 151 34 144 2816 2204 22*134 21*142 24 139 32 136 2204 1695 20 132 20 140 20 131 27 129 1695 1307 19 131 19 139 18 129 21 124 1307 1039 17 131 17 138 17 128 15 121 1039 877 15 130 15 137 14 127 12*119 877 785 11 130 11 137 10*126 6*116 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography