DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 07/13 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 77.7 - - 80.4 - - 82.5 - - 78.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 156 - - 124 - - 101 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2715 - - 3657 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2179 - - 2747 - - 770 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3424 - - 4366 - - 787 - - 787 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1884 - - 2007 - - 6491 - - 4983 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 316 - - 326 - - 85 - - 22 W* B/S - - - 8 - - 10 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind - - - 7 - - 6 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 132 - - 142 - - 155 - - 139 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - -2 - - -1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1644 - - -1869 - - -5505 - - -3499 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5068 - - 6235 - - 6293 - - 4286 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4356 - - -4620 - - -6733 - - -5513 ODpotential blCL - - - 7780 - - 8986 - - 7520 - - 6300 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 97 - - 82 - - 71 maxRH CAPE - - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 - - 50 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 77.7 - - 80.4 - - 82.5 - - 78.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 58.4 - - 56.0 - - 57.8 - - 62.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 76.2 - - 79.1 - - 81.3 - - 79.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 57.3 - - 54.9 - - 56.8 - - 61.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 156 - - 124 - - 101 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2715 - - 3657 - - 78 - - 78 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 57 - - 90 - - 28 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 9 - - 10 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99544 49 090 42 086 44 088 36 087 99544 92004 41 084 38 091 36 089 32 085 92004 86195 31 079 33 092 28 084 30 071 86195 81383 25 078 28 090 23 081 23 065 81383 77240 27 070 26 086 21 073 22 069 77240 73579 21 062 24 064 17 085 16 060 73579 70276 18 078 15 059 16 067 15 074 70276 67238 17 070 12 076 14 047 18 055 67238 64430 13 061 13 057 13 031 16 037 64430 61733 12 051 15 039 13 033 17 033 61733 58933 18 015 15 023 14 033 18 029 58933 56029 19 007 15 007 21 013 22 014 56029 53261 16 001 16 345 23 357 23 007 53261 50781 13 328 13 320 20 344 23 001 50781 48569 13 309 11 302 15 318 18 354 48569 46571 16 303 14 305 14 292 17 346 46571 44754 19 301 18 312 14 301 19 328 44754 43083 20 300 17 294 18 310 21 312 43083 41527 20 286 13 285 15 300 21 296 41527 40064 18 278 13 302 11 256 21 284 40064 38678 17 275 13 272 22 264 22 282 38678 37329 14 282 16 254 30 276 22 287 37329 35949 10 287 21 253 30 270 20 289 35949 34508 9 290 19 250 27 267 17 299 34508 33011 9 294 15 265 27 264 18 301 33011 31445 9 300 13 272 25 259 19 291 31445 29796 10 297 12 278 20 259 18 291 29796 28066 12 284 12 285 18 276 18 306 28066 26254 11 284 14 284 17 295 16 319 26254 24364 8 274 12 281 13 299 15 331 24364 22397 4 257 9 273 10 303 13 319 22397 20350 2 305 7 289 11 313 11 322 20350 18218 7 000 8 339 11 339 12 342 18218 16045 9 012 10 031 7 006 13 357 16045 13952 6 327 6 360 6 357 14 002 13952 12057 5 312 8 280 9 317 12 004 12057 10383 2 353 5 261 9 295 11 351 10383 8900 1 146 2 298 5 305 9 337 8900 7579 2 131 1 240 2 294 3 301 7579 6406 4 132 5 145 4 156 3 233 6406 5367 10 138 7 140 5 148 3 208 5367 4453 12 140 7*138 6 148 4 175 4453 3645 9*136 7*139 5 148 5 158 3645 2922 8*134 7 140 5 150 6 152 2922 2282 8 133 7 141 5 151 6 149 2282 1748 7 132 6 142 5 152 6 145 1748 1338 7 131 6 143 5 153 6 144 1338 1056 6 130 5 144 4 152 6 143 1056 885 6 130 5 144 4*154 5*140 885 787 5 130 4 145 3*155 3*139 787 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography