DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/02 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1553z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 59.2 - - 67.5 - - 66.2 - - 54.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 51 - - 111 - - -6 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 768 - - 769 - - 769 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1199 - - 3247 - - 3218 - - 153 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 66 - - 84 - - 26 - - 12 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 3 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 190 - - 178 - - 137 - - 152 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3640 - - -6127 - - -5305 - - -2714 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4425 - - 6912 - - 6090 - - 3499 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -7401 - - -8974 - - -7699 - - -11496 ODpotential blCL - - - 8186 - - 9759 - - 8484 - - 12281 blCL maxRH - - - 97 - - 77 - - 81 - - 82 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 59.2 - - 67.5 - - 66.2 - - 54.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 43.2 - - 40.4 - - 42.8 - - 42.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 58.4 - - 66.2 - - 66.4 - - 56.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 42.1 - - 39.3 - - 41.9 - - 41.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 51 - - 111 - - -6 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 90 - - 6 - - 24 - - 30 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96432 81 245 98 246 92 249 96 246 96432 89348 60 257 68 248 63 255 56 256 89348 83890 46 260 36 263 39 266 36 275 83890 79342 31 244 26 274 28 257 30 290 79342 75418 17 264 19 280 15 257 25 290 75418 71935 16 304 16 294 11 299 17 305 71935 68762 12 309 15 283 21 294 21 324 68762 65841 14 305 11 267 21 274 22 320 65841 63138 20 301 9 308 16 286 17 306 63138 60516 23 297 17 304 21 285 17 298 60516 57772 23 298 15 297 19 278 20 293 57772 54919 25 300 21 314 22 292 19 282 54919 52200 30 292 28 302 16 300 22 310 52200 49772 32 287 28 299 28 316 27 307 49772 47620 35 284 30 295 36 315 24 346 47620 45697 33 280 33 303 37 332 36 340 45697 43945 25 293 36 325 45 343 37 355 43945 42323 26 313 40 336 51 353 59 011 42323 40812 20 289 42 337 61 358 71 012 40812 39383 19 270 44 337 65 359 74 010 39383 38022 24 257 45 339 65 358 72 006 38022 36696 24 257 44 340 66 358 71 009 36696 35342 24 251 36 337 66 358 58 013 35342 33932 23 240 27 333 64 359 47 002 33932 32467 17 242 21 319 59 358 48 342 32467 30932 14 261 18 289 51 355 41 333 30932 29315 13 267 18 268 42 357 34 357 29315 27615 11 260 19 261 38 002 31 008 27615 25830 11 261 20 259 29 001 26 359 25830 23961 10 254 17 274 17 343 19 353 23961 22014 9 246 13 287 7 320 14 340 22014 19993 3 266 7 293 4 287 8 297 19993 17891 5 026 5 342 6 290 6 276 17891 15747 2 060 4 318 9 293 7 293 15747 13681 6 207 5 305 7 281 8 315 13681 11804 12 204 2 274 4 239 8 322 11804 10142 14 187 8 160 6 221 6 276 10142 8677 13 179 11 149 10 233 8 233 8677 7381 11 173 9 155 11 232 12 221 7381 6232 9 172 8 157 10 210 13 215 6232 5217 6 170 6 156 8 209 12 207 5217 4325 3 179 6 167 6 215 11 207 4325 3539 2 227 6 196 6 206 11 209 3539 2838 3 262 6 196 6 182 11 206 2838 2220 7 224 6 188 8 155 12 194 2220 1707 10 206 5 184 8 150 13 182 1707 1312 9 201 5 181 8 145 14 174 1312 1042 6 194 4 179 8 142 13 166 1042 878 5*192 4 178 7 140 10*161 878 785 4*190 3*178 5*137 5*152 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography