DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/04 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 58.4 - - 62.0 - - 64.9 - - 59.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 21 - - 63 - - 48 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 785 - - 785 - - 786 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1263 - - 1835 - - 2061 - - 1481 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 48 - - 69 - - 64 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 11 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 3 - - 1 - - 3 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 024 - - 354 - - 018 - - 030 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -98 - - -670 - - -1139 - - -7 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 883 - - 1456 - - 1925 - - 792 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -306 - - -700 - - -1428 - - -965 ODpotential blCL - - - 1091 - - 1485 - - 2214 - - 1750 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 97 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 58.4 - - 62.0 - - 64.9 - - 59.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 57.2 - - 58.3 - - 59.1 - - 58.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 57.7 - - 61.0 - - 64.0 - - 60.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 57.0 - - 58.0 - - 58.7 - - 59.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 21 - - 63 - - 48 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 76 - - 76 - - 77 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 101 - - 101 - - 78 - - 86 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 10 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98159 12 243 16 221 12 254 15 224 98159 90798 18 227 12 236 18 262 12 258 90798 85110 15 203 14 230 19 252 11 260 85110 80380 11 207 16 228 18 238 11 252 80380 76289 10 246 13 232 15 221 14 241 76289 72681 10 265 8 237 12 222 16 233 72681 69432 12 255 9 206 14 244 12 254 69432 66458 12 236 9 243 16 240 16 255 66458 63709 11 245 16 283 15 245 21 263 63709 61061 23 274 26 261 24 264 26 266 61061 58315 34 258 31 262 35 253 35 257 58315 55475 41 250 44 262 43 259 42 259 55475 52766 49 248 56 247 52 256 54 259 52766 50326 56 249 62 249 63 254 61 254 50326 48132 64 254 70 252 74 252 71 251 48132 46139 69 257 77 255 82 252 87 255 46139 44314 77 260 83 258 86 253 101 256 44314 42626 89 260 90 258 89 254 107 256 42626 41051 93 257 96 255 93 255 108 256 41051 39572 95 255 95 253 92 253 111 254 39572 38177 84 253 90 252 88 251 109 251 38177 36828 74 249 86 247 84 250 95 246 36828 35458 73 242 86 243 83 247 87 245 35458 34035 70 240 81 242 82 247 83 245 34035 32559 68 240 76 239 78 249 79 248 32559 31015 72 241 74 239 69 251 74 253 31015 29396 69 242 64 242 57 248 60 258 29396 27702 59 244 49 247 51 253 52 260 27702 25929 49 245 46 251 45 256 46 258 25929 24075 44 243 43 250 41 258 43 257 24075 22140 38 236 40 253 41 261 40 258 22140 20120 37 234 37 255 40 263 36 263 20120 18009 36 227 35 251 36 263 33 268 18009 15853 31 227 32 252 28 261 26 263 15853 13780 29 234 27 258 23 271 22 252 13780 11904 28 238 25 262 20 282 17 267 11904 10239 26 239 25 256 18 281 16 289 10239 8759 23 243 26 249 18 275 16 296 8759 7442 19 246 25 248 17 270 16 296 7442 6276 15 247 21 251 17 269 17 293 6276 5250 9 244 12 255 13 272 18 292 5250 4352 5 207 6 224 9 272 17 297 4352 3561 6 162 6 202 7 273 12 300 3561 2854 10 122 5 177 5 277 7 296 2854 2231 8 100 2 146 2 339 3 310 2231 1714 5 069 1 004 3 013 3 025 1714 1317 4 036 1 357 3 015 4 039 1317 1045 3 027 1 353 3 016 5 038 1045 880 3 026 1*351 3*017 4 035 880 785 3*024 1*354 3*018 3*030 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography