DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0948z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1554z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 64.9 - - 67.9 - - 67.0 - - 67.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 2 - - 49 - - -2 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top - - - 786 - - 786 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1472 - - 2478 - - 2555 - - 1435 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 22 - - 66 - - 16 - - 5 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 5 - - 2 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 047 - - 057 - - 013 - - 335 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 0 - - -775 - - -289 - - 0 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 786 - - 1561 - - 1075 - - 786 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -351 - - -1031 - - -975 - - -1129 ODpotential blCL - - - 1137 - - 1817 - - 1761 - - 1915 blCL maxRH - - - 100 - - 98 - - 96 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 160 - - 10 - - 10 - - 150 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 64.9 - - 67.9 - - 67.0 - - 67.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 64.0 - - 63.6 - - 64.7 - - 66.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 64.6 - - 67.2 - - 66.9 - - 67.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 64.0 - - 62.9 - - 64.4 - - 66.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 2 - - 49 - - -2 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 102 - - 93 - - 85 - - 100 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 13 - - 13 - - 13 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98546 4 206 10 141 13 253 10 289 98546 91170 1 077 3 223 5 251 4 316 91170 85479 2 104 3 303 5 069 3 283 85479 80752 3 076 7 338 10 055 6 030 80752 76675 7 055 8 318 9 020 13 021 76675 73076 11 057 2 257 5 343 9 001 73076 69832 11 036 5 107 3 007 8 052 69832 66854 11 014 14 082 2 218 7 018 66854 64097 7 007 13 066 3 204 9 325 64097 61437 4 009 8 046 1 230 3 275 61437 58663 2 246 3 025 2 206 2 155 58663 55779 4 205 5 264 3 237 4 211 55779 53032 6 179 9 241 6 255 6 236 53032 50570 7 194 11 216 11 254 7 240 50570 48363 10 210 11 209 14 237 8 248 48363 46344 9 215 9 213 11 213 9 239 46344 44478 10 222 7 209 8 208 7 218 44478 42746 11 204 9 189 11 197 11 204 42746 41138 14 158 17 174 17 190 16 189 41138 39642 18 156 18 177 20 182 15 176 39642 38240 23 150 22 168 24 178 15 175 38240 36891 25 141 23 155 24 177 17 180 36891 35526 25 134 23 139 20 178 20 184 35526 34106 26 125 23 134 17 174 20 182 34106 32630 25 114 23 136 16 171 17 193 32630 31083 23 110 21 131 15 168 11 194 31083 29453 22 115 19 106 14 163 9 187 29453 27742 21 115 17 089 11 150 7 193 27742 25952 16 116 14 093 10 119 7 198 25952 24091 11 119 12 104 12 098 5 189 24091 22161 7 131 12 119 10 097 5 135 22161 20150 9 147 9 152 8 109 3 159 20150 18049 13 149 11 170 5 139 2 153 18049 15908 18 148 18 155 6 179 1 184 15908 13844 15 152 18 138 8 159 2 297 13844 11963 8 155 7 108 2 057 3 320 11963 10291 4 106 8 341 10 340 2 043 10291 8806 8 057 12 351 10 005 5 062 8806 7489 11 053 13 015 14 056 5 046 7489 6323 14 061 13 036 16 084 4 010 6323 5293 17 071 17 064 11 094 5 024 5293 4388 21 076 20 076 12 056 10 063 4388 3593 24 077 20 078 16 039 15 062 3593 2881 24 073 17 075 15 035 15 056 2881 2253 22 069 13 067 13 034 13 044 2253 1728 19 064 10 061 10 030 11 025 1728 1326 15 058 9 058 8 025 10 003 1326 1050 11 052 8 057 6 021 8 350 1050 882 9*049 7*057 4*020 6*342 882 786 6*047 5*057 2*013 3*335 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography