DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/14 KagelMt_CA 3537ft pt26848@34.438,-118.271,3301ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.8 degF SPONSORED BY: Sylmar Hang Gliding Association RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1553z - - 1853z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.5 - - 56.0 - - 57.6 - - 56.0 - - 50.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -46 - - 93 - - 138 - - 5 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1468 - - 1955 - - 1278 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 2605 - - 2605 - - 4425 - - 2605 - - 2605 Hcrit BL Top 2622 - - 5005 - - 5492 - - 4815 - - 2623 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1791 - - 1115 - - 1093 - - 1561 - - 2248 Hgt.Variab. W* 15 - - 222 - - 275 - - 95 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 11 - - 7 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 7 - - 8 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 044 - - 201 - - 186 - - 164 - - 111 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 5 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -30 - - 17 - - 30 - - 19 - - -13 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1412 - - 968 - - 1200 - - 1153 - - -368 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4034 - - 4037 - - 4292 - - 3662 - - 2991 sfcLCL ODpotential -12623 - - -6846 - - -5829 - - -194 - - -9391 ODpotential blCL 15245 - - 11851 - - 11321 - - 5009 - - 12014 blCL maxRH 72 - - 78 - - 86 - - 90 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.5 - - 56.0 - - 57.6 - - 56.0 - - 50.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.9 - - 47.3 - - 47.8 - - 49.0 - - 46.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 52.1 - - 56.0 - - 57.4 - - 57.0 - - 53.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.7 - - 46.0 - - 46.6 - - 48.1 - - 46.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -46 - - 93 - - 138 - - 5 - - -25 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1468 - - 1955 - - 1278 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 11 - - 43 - - 59 - - 5 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96575 39 292 42 272 39 274 41 266 46 284 96575 89380 32 292 31 276 32 283 30 287 36 291 89380 83854 18 298 25 278 26 284 26 291 23 292 83854 79283 16 304 16 288 17 271 24 284 22 290 79283 75362 18 278 11 304 13 271 18 285 14 282 75362 71888 12 310 14 293 11 305 14 304 9 324 71888 68730 16 325 17 289 16 299 17 291 14 320 68730 65834 25 301 13 304 17 289 16 286 17 297 65834 63174 25 307 19 356 14 303 18 297 20 286 63174 60618 35 313 27 321 19 319 17 292 19 269 60618 57945 33 307 26 313 27 317 17 302 19 267 57945 55158 41 330 37 323 33 311 26 297 22 290 55158 52495 52 309 47 313 38 299 35 293 31 298 52495 50091 51 298 41 309 33 305 34 283 35 292 50091 47918 48 306 41 319 36 318 32 301 35 290 47918 45931 66 311 51 318 46 317 39 306 33 295 45931 44105 73 302 55 306 45 307 42 298 35 296 44105 42421 63 303 53 302 41 301 39 297 36 295 42421 40855 56 318 47 307 40 305 37 302 34 297 40855 39390 65 318 53 310 45 306 39 301 36 298 39390 38014 67 308 58 308 49 303 42 298 35 294 38014 36687 67 303 62 307 51 300 41 293 35 287 36687 35341 67 302 65 305 53 299 42 291 36 283 35341 33949 67 303 65 303 56 299 45 290 38 279 33949 32511 68 305 65 300 57 294 45 289 37 285 32511 31015 69 308 63 297 58 292 44 294 36 288 31015 29451 66 309 59 293 54 294 40 297 33 288 29451 27822 62 308 55 293 49 291 39 296 32 289 27822 26126 59 304 51 294 46 290 38 292 33 286 26126 24365 56 303 49 293 42 292 33 291 31 281 24365 22542 51 306 47 290 38 294 28 291 28 286 22542 20653 47 305 45 287 37 294 26 298 25 300 20653 18693 47 301 41 287 36 294 26 307 23 318 18693 16702 43 302 33 289 29 292 24 310 21 327 16702 14790 35 303 24 290 21 288 19 305 18 326 14790 13053 31 300 19 289 15 280 16 302 16 321 13053 11510 28 302 17 295 12 278 15 304 14 319 11510 10139 23 308 14 305 9 284 12 306 10 316 10139 8920 17 313 10 316 5 279 7 305 5 308 8920 7838 12 292 7 310 3 243 2 282 1 227 7838 6880 11 268 6 284 4 207 4 161 5 154 6880 6036 10 263 6 260 5*188 7 160 9 151 6036 5290 9 264 6*247 6*183 9*163 11 155 5290 4619 7 276 4*219 7 182 9*163 11 159 4619 4024 6 304 3 195 7 184 9 162 12 160 4024 3525 5 343 4 196 8 187 9 163 12 154 3525 3141 7 027 4 199 8 190 8 164 11 142 3141 2875 9 043 4 202 8 191 8 165 10 128 2875 2714 8*046 4 202 7 192 7 166 9*119 2714 2622 6*044 3 203 6 193 5 169 5*103 2622 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography