DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 MtDiablo 712ft pt33457@37.708,-121.962 SPONSORED BY: Bay Area Paragliding Association - BAPA NOTE: Sfc.elevation based on smoothed model topo so represents plain around Mt Diablo, not the peak RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.2 - - 54.8 - - 57.9 - - 54.8 - - 53.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 8 - - 28 - - -14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 231 - - 642 - - 2816 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 712 - - 712 - - 712 - - 712 - - 712 Hcrit BL Top 943 - - 1354 - - 3528 - - 728 - - 729 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2400 - - 2642 - - 1260 - - 2905 - - 1790 Hgt.Variab. W* 27 - - 81 - - 199 - - 14 - - 12 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 12 - - 15 - - 7 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 240 - - 233 - - 222 - - 203 - - 189 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 7 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 5 - - 6 - - -7 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 102 - - 277 - - 1512 - - -396 - - -145 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 841 - - 1077 - - 2016 - - 1124 - - 874 sfcLCL ODpotential -279 - - -202 - - 379 - - -946 - - -822 ODpotential blCL 1222 - - 1556 - - 3149 - - 1674 - - 1551 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 96 - - 101 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 20 - - 50 - - 10 - - 20 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 53.2 - - 54.8 - - 57.9 - - 54.8 - - 53.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 51.9 - - 52.5 - - 51.5 - - 52.2 - - 51.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 53.5 - - 54.8 - - 57.8 - - 55.4 - - 53.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 51.6 - - 52.0 - - 50.2 - - 51.8 - - 51.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 8 - - 28 - - -14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 231 - - 642 - - 2816 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 100 - - 84 - - 102 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 8 - - 8 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96627 34 093 34 078 19 083 17 068 16 063 96627 89538 29 089 30 076 27 095 21 079 24 065 89538 84007 15 074 20 081 24 084 17 081 21 061 84007 79388 7 009 12 075 15 064 8 065 15 066 79388 75414 3 306 6 044 8 012 9 044 11 058 75414 71903 7 108 3 071 5 337 9 006 10 050 71903 68714 9 095 3 122 3 304 7 357 8 012 68714 65766 2 293 2 203 6 274 4 320 7 351 65766 63008 11 230 8 204 12 256 6 263 9 287 63008 60325 13 193 12 219 17 250 12 259 13 281 60325 57511 13 204 12 230 18 244 12 253 15 269 57511 54571 16 233 13 233 17 236 15 261 21 266 54571 51759 17 230 15 254 16 244 22 265 26 265 51759 49245 14 222 21 266 21 273 26 268 26 270 49245 47005 9 254 23 278 26 283 28 273 29 275 47005 44971 11 285 23 288 27 292 31 273 32 272 44971 43106 13 314 20 289 32 292 37 270 33 273 43106 41381 20 328 20 299 33 283 38 258 36 280 41381 39782 21 334 28 315 33 278 38 259 53 277 39782 38300 27 347 35 325 36 275 48 259 61 265 38300 36918 34 344 41 324 36 274 54 251 57 259 36918 35592 31 336 40 322 41 276 56 248 56 265 35592 34252 27 342 38 320 44 276 60 252 65 272 34252 32871 28 343 39 318 43 276 63 255 67 269 32871 31446 29 341 38 319 41 278 59 255 65 263 31446 29956 32 338 37 320 42 282 53 253 66 257 29956 28385 35 330 36 318 41 285 53 255 70 259 28385 26739 36 337 37 319 40 283 54 259 67 265 26739 25021 33 346 35 323 38 281 53 260 59 265 25021 23232 29 348 29 327 36 282 49 258 50 261 23232 21368 26 347 26 319 37 289 48 262 43 258 21368 19425 22 345 25 307 35 297 44 265 44 257 19425 17398 21 346 25 298 28 302 32 264 43 256 17398 15333 18 346 23 307 24 295 29 264 33 249 15333 13343 17 334 20 311 20 290 25 266 25 246 13343 11528 18 313 18 310 17 293 25 278 28 250 11528 9912 19 310 15 298 18 291 26 277 29 247 9912 8479 19 309 16 283 19 282 19 278 27 238 8479 7208 20 296 19 271 19 268 14 282 24 227 7208 6081 18 281 19 260 20 257 10 277 21 211 6081 5086 15 265 17 255 18 243 9 248 20 200 5086 4210 13 252 17 255 18*229 14 223 24 203 4210 3439 14 258 18 253 18*223 21 216 28 207 3439 2751 16 261 18 250 17 222 23 213 30 205 2751 2143 16 259 18 246 16 222 22 210 30 200 2143 1638 15 255 16*239 15 221 20 208 27 194 1638 1250 13 248 14*234 14 221 18 206 23 191 1250 983 11*243 13 233 12 221 15 205 17 190 983 821 9*241 11 232 11 220 12 204 15*190 821 729 6 240 8 231 8 220 7*203 8*189 729 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography