DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.1 - - 83.3 - - 89.5 - - 89.3 - - 79.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 23 - - 385 - - 412 - - 92 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 528 - - 5975 - - 10778 - - 11563 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 9161 - - 13079 - - 12466 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5356 - - 10803 - - 15606 - - 16391 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1619 - - 3214 - - 1774 - - 1404 - - 12332 Hgt.Variab. W* 95 - - 549 - - 684 - - 426 - - 3 W* B/S 5 - - 21 - - 21 - - 16 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 098 - - 249 - - 270 - - 276 - - 315 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 9 - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - -11 - - -10 - - -14 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4756 - - -1086 - - 628 - - -1250 - - -12046 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10112 - - 11890 - - 14979 - - 17642 - - 16422 sfcLCL ODpotential -8016 - - -4263 - - -1042 - - -5079 - - -18294 ODpotential blCL 13372 - - 15066 - - 16648 - - 21470 - - 22670 blCL maxRH 65 - - 64 - - 87 - - 81 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 73.1 - - 83.3 - - 89.5 - - 89.3 - - 79.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 44.2 - - 46.1 - - 38.4 - - 26.2 - - 22.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.9 - - 81.9 - - 87.9 - - 89.4 - - 85.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 44.2 - - 46.0 - - 38.3 - - 26.0 - - 22.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 23 - - 385 - - 412 - - 92 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 528 - - 5975 - - 10778 - - 11563 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 48 - - 24 - - 16 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98058 19 083 17 112 14 127 10 116 6 135 98058 90713 13 089 16 088 17 136 2 122 7 048 90713 85061 12 083 10 108 12 121 6 135 10 052 85061 80375 14 086 9 086 7 116 7 061 14 069 80375 76330 13 063 11 090 9 081 8 059 15 068 76330 72760 10 063 12 079 13 087 9 082 12 047 72760 69548 9 079 10 092 11 090 12 090 10 071 69548 66603 11 090 8 103 6 094 9 069 12 075 66603 63877 13 063 9 078 8 088 8 072 10 083 63877 61249 10 032 8 045 9 082 7 054 9 072 61249 58528 8 351 8 359 11 030 9 022 9 012 58528 55725 12 308 8 307 14 321 14 326 14 325 55725 53066 14 300 10 281 21 280 25 304 26 312 53066 50677 20 318 13 303 20 279 26 283 27 292 50677 48529 29 310 21 320 21 296 25 283 27 290 48529 46571 31 300 27 306 25 298 27 287 32 290 46571 44767 33 301 30 303 29 297 31 293 35 291 44767 43084 35 299 37 302 31 300 34 297 41 288 43084 41505 41 294 44 296 36 298 36 295 43 284 41505 40021 45 290 56 288 46 293 43 301 40 292 40021 38628 49 288 65 280 57 284 54 287 45 290 38628 37292 50 288 65 277 59 279 54 283 46 287 37292 35943 45 290 66 285 58 281 53 283 46 284 35943 34550 39 291 55 297 55 291 51 289 46 276 34550 33120 26 293 32 301 42 302 48 312 42 278 33120 31644 17 303 16 286 26 291 33 318 29 318 31644 30116 15 306 13 286 18 274 20 295 21 284 30116 28538 15 307 11 300 14 275 16 280 27 272 28538 26908 16 317 11 320 12 285 15 279 20 287 26908 25230 19 322 11 330 10 301 14 277 14 286 25230 23505 17 321 10 320 9 308 11 279 11 282 23505 21726 13 308 10 305 10 320 8 304 8 286 21726 19892 13 301 9 303 11 331 9 343 4 326 19892 18042 8 299 7 302 8 330 6*354 4 047 18042 16272 5 259 6 248 5*298 4*257 3 109 16272 14658 11 256 7 240 6*281 5 251 2 174 14658 13212 16 258 9 266 7 277 5 255 2 225 13212 11914 14 261 11*280 7 276 4 264 2 259 11914 10744 7 286 10*277 7 273 5 272 3 278 10744 9691 4 315 7 265 7 272 5 281 3 289 9691 8745 2 313 5 253 6 271 5 286 4 294 8745 7899 1 212 4 247 6 267 5 291 5 293 7899 7142 4 189 4 241 6 265 5 292 6 289 7142 6455 7 187 4 234 5 262 6 295 7 286 6455 5840 7*182 4 228 5 259 6 296 8 283 5840 5322 4*163 4 223 5 255 6 296 8 283 5322 4920 4 106 4 218 4 253 6 297 7 284 4920 4642 5 078 4 217 4 251 6 298 5 291 4642 4472 4 064 4 216 4 251 5 298 4*309 4472 4375 3 061 4 215 4 250 5 298 4*319 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography