DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 01/23 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1853z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.7 - - 53.0 - - 57.6 - - 54.7 - - 46.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -45 - - 39 - - 174 - - -4 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1540 - - 5585 - - 4860 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 4356 - - 8480 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6368 - - 10413 - - 9688 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 411 - - 2882 - - 1422 - - 2108 - - 4843 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 171 - - 417 - - 81 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 6 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 6 - - 13 - - 13 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 008 - - 160 - - 206 - - 203 - - 149 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 11 - - 10 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg -20 - - 9 - - 30 - - 33 - - 10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -908 - - -3073 - - -158 - - 131 - - -1858 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5281 - - 9442 - - 10571 - - 9557 - - 6232 sfcLCL ODpotential -5952 - - -8082 - - -3251 - - -2295 - - -4963 ODpotential blCL 10325 - - 14450 - - 13664 - - 11983 - - 9337 blCL maxRH 100 - - 98 - - 91 - - 96 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.7 - - 53.0 - - 57.6 - - 54.7 - - 46.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 33.9 - - 26.9 - - 26.3 - - 27.9 - - 34.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 45.7 - - 53.7 - - 57.5 - - 56.0 - - 51.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 33.5 - - 25.7 - - 25.6 - - 27.5 - - 34.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -45 - - 39 - - 174 - - -4 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1540 - - 5585 - - 4860 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 91 - - 64 - - 84 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95466 38 284 47 274 53 262 48 271 56 271 95466 88554 15 296 27 274 28 274 26 269 38 291 88554 83225 14 298 17 282 19 297 18 262 30 293 83225 78769 17 307 15 292 19 312 14 282 19 285 78769 74920 16 304 12 297 16 304 13 303 14 288 74920 71515 13 315 6 321 11 285 12 298 17 290 71515 68428 12 317 9 320 11 283 15 289 21 293 68428 65582 13 309 11 319 12 289 16 278 21 282 65582 62927 14 295 13 304 13 299 14 281 20 279 62927 60337 14 296 15 288 18 292 17 290 23 287 60337 57619 19 311 18 287 23 280 27 285 29 287 57619 54780 28 300 25 290 29 275 33 281 34 278 54780 52042 31 285 30 279 30 278 33 277 33 274 52042 49548 31 278 31 273 31 276 32 276 32 271 49548 47284 30 274 33 267 32 268 34 272 33 271 47284 45208 31 272 34 268 31 263 34 270 32 274 45208 43292 28 269 34 262 27 273 30 262 29 275 43292 41514 29 263 31 262 30 261 28 261 29 276 41514 39861 37 255 39 255 35 262 31 260 31 272 39861 38334 44 245 44 245 42 254 31 257 35 268 38334 36923 50 246 51 239 48 247 34 256 38 257 36923 35589 66 241 60 236 56 237 40 250 38 244 35589 34264 79 236 63 234 60 231 47 241 38 242 34264 32915 83 234 66 234 63 229 52 231 43 238 32915 31547 80 234 70 232 65 228 53 227 42 239 31547 30150 72 237 69 231 64 228 47 233 40 244 30150 28714 64 236 66 233 60 231 43 241 39 246 28714 27232 56 233 59 235 51 236 41 246 36 248 27232 25699 47 234 51 234 46 237 42 248 35 251 25699 24116 42 238 47 228 45 237 43 247 34 249 24116 22484 41 240 46 231 41 240 40 242 35 244 22484 20800 39 240 42 238 38 241 39 242 37 250 20800 19059 33 237 33 241 38 241 35 243 35 260 19059 17295 27 238 25 241 38 246 31 251 31 260 17295 15601 28 241 23 240 33 247 27 260 27 255 15601 14059 30 239 22 234 25 244 25 265 24 253 14059 12686 30 234 22 232 23 239 21 263 20 254 12686 11458 27 230 20 231 21*237 16 257 16 250 11458 10356 21 226 17 227 17*230 13*252 13 243 10356 9365 16 223 15 219 14 219 12*240 12 242 9365 8476 11 223 14 208 14 211 12 220 12 241 8476 7682 7 224 14 198 13 205 13 208 13 240 7682 6971 4 221 13*191 13 201 14 200 13 238 6971 6326 2 249 12*184 13 198 15 196 13 236 6326 5749 4 309 9 175 13 195 15 193 13 232 5749 5262 8 332 6 153 13 193 15 191 11 226 5262 4885 12 348 5 124 12 191 15 189 9 216 4885 4624 13 003 5 121 12 190 13 187 6 194 4624 4464 11*007 4 121 11 189 12 187 5*168 4464 4373 7*008 4 121 10 189 9 186 3*133 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography