DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 09/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0950z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1557z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 64.2 - - 74.0 - - 80.0 - - 77.7 - - 66.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 37 - - 404 - - 436 - - 110 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 900 - - 4955 - - 7180 - - 5947 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 8373 - - 10184 - - 8418 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 5728 - - 9783 - - 12008 - - 10775 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2447 - - 1375 - - 1432 - - 1970 - - 5259 Hgt.Variab. W* 134 - - 525 - - 610 - - 362 - - 0 W* B/S 4 - - 7 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 13 - - 15 - - 14 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 103 - - 188 - - 203 - - 204 - - 200 Direction Wind Shear 6 - - 9 - - 6 - - 3 - - 6 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - 22 - - 33 - - 33 - - 19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4214 - - -2840 - - -3494 - - -4932 - - -9165 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9942 - - 12624 - - 15502 - - 15708 - - 13541 sfcLCL ODpotential -13311 - - -10740 - - -10551 - - -12547 - - -18424 ODpotential blCL 19039 - - 20523 - - 22559 - - 23322 - - 22799 blCL maxRH 43 - - 38 - - 33 - - 35 - - 24 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 64.2 - - 74.0 - - 80.0 - - 77.7 - - 66.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 35.9 - - 33.6 - - 26.5 - - 23.7 - - 23.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.9 - - 72.7 - - 78.4 - - 77.9 - - 72.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 35.8 - - 33.4 - - 26.5 - - 23.6 - - 23.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 37 - - 404 - - 436 - - 110 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 900 - - 4955 - - 7180 - - 5947 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98471 18 113 12 118 11 129 12 067 9 079 98471 91145 13 093 15 106 14 109 13 077 18 077 91145 85494 14 095 16 104 17 104 15 100 14 086 85494 80798 16 101 15 112 16 115 15 113 13 086 80798 76738 17 102 18 102 19 102 15 115 13 109 76738 73138 11 123 14 100 20 088 16 114 16 109 73138 69879 14 125 11 146 11 096 17 100 12 097 69879 66876 15 092 10 139 9 107 8 095 10 089 66876 64098 3 163 6 199 4 181 3 047 2 052 64098 61417 9 227 12 221 10 243 6 337 6 077 61417 58636 16 266 19 236 25 232 23 236 21 247 58636 55799 36 259 30 249 35 242 36 239 34 241 55799 53131 51 255 47 257 48 253 47 251 44 248 53131 50736 66 254 62 255 62 251 60 255 57 253 50736 48573 76 256 71 254 70 253 70 251 67 252 48573 46592 84 257 77 254 76 253 80 246 77 249 46592 44761 90 255 84 254 80 252 81 245 85 245 44761 43056 96 255 89 254 84 252 82 246 87 244 43056 41456 98 254 92 254 87 252 86 249 89 247 41456 39951 95 254 93 252 88 252 90 250 93 247 39951 38534 91 253 92 251 89 251 91 251 94 246 38534 37174 88 253 89 250 88 249 90 250 92 245 37174 35806 87 253 85 250 86 247 86 248 87 246 35806 34404 83 253 83 251 84 247 83 246 84 246 34404 32972 75 250 81 250 83 248 82 245 82 245 32972 31496 69 248 74 247 82 250 81 247 80 245 31496 29962 63 248 66 243 75 250 79 250 77 246 29962 28374 55 250 61 240 65 246 70 250 71 247 28374 26735 51 250 58 239 59 243 61 249 61 247 26735 25051 47 250 54 239 55 243 53 248 53 248 25051 23323 44 250 50 237 52 241 47 247 48 248 23323 21542 42 250 46 236 48 238 44 245 43 246 21542 19703 37 250 42 235 44 234 41 242 39 242 19703 17843 31 246 36 230 39 228 37 236 34 238 17843 16062 28 239 30 224 35 224 31 231 30 231 16062 14449 24 229 27 220 30 221 25 225 27 221 14449 13016 22 220 26 217 24*218 20 221 24 215 13016 11736 21 215 25 215 17*210 15*217 22 209 11736 10589 20 213 22*209 15 206 13*211 18 202 10589 9558 18 209 17*196 15 205 13 208 15 197 9558 8634 16 199 15 190 14 203 13 207 13 197 8634 7809 16 187 14 188 14 202 14 205 12 201 7809 7070 15 179 13 186 14 201 14 204 11 207 7070 6401 13 172 12 186 15 200 14 202 12 214 6401 5802 10*161 12 185 14 199 14 201 13 217 5802 5297 7*137 11 184 14 199 14 200 12 216 5297 4905 7 104 10 184 14 198 14 200 11 214 4905 4634 6 087 10 184 14 198 14 200 8 208 4634 4469 5 084 9 184 13 198 13 199 6*198 4469 4374 4 081 9 184 11 198 11 199 3*182 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography