DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/25 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 51.9 - - 54.3 - - 53.3 - - 50.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 27 - - 1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 799 - - 603 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4374 - - 5627 - - 5431 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1968 - - 2317 - - 2466 - - 2850 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 19 - - 124 - - 44 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 0 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 8 - - 9 - - 8 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 199 - - 193 - - 177 - - 156 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 24 - - 20 - - 15 - - 15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 2 - - 1254 - - 1058 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4373 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -205 - - 576 - - 606 - - -590 ODpotential blCL - - - 4579 - - 5051 - - 4825 - - 4964 blCL maxRH - - - 101 - - 98 - - 99 - - 98 maxRH CAPE - - - 240 - - 370 - - 260 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 51.9 - - 54.3 - - 53.3 - - 50.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 51.7 - - 52.6 - - 52.4 - - 50.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 53.0 - - 55.1 - - 54.3 - - 52.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 51.6 - - 52.0 - - 52.3 - - 51.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 5 - - 27 - - 1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 799 - - 603 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 103 - - 94 - - 98 - - 93 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 9 - - 9 - - 10 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96179 30 287 34 286 26 305 25 304 96179 89053 17 299 22 288 23 304 27 305 89053 83591 19 302 18 288 19 321 19 311 83591 79071 23 304 21 329 14 302 19 300 79071 75173 25 297 25 325 14 322 22 306 75173 71732 23 305 26 323 16 334 20 314 71732 68609 28 295 30 297 21 307 20 326 68609 65705 24 279 32 251 29 255 25 300 65705 62995 25 245 34 235 42 254 32 286 62995 60399 36 230 30 243 47 251 47 270 60399 57713 40 232 38 241 53 247 58 263 57713 54925 52 234 53 240 60 249 73 257 54925 52242 69 231 67 238 73 251 79 248 52242 49798 76 232 73 242 80 252 79 248 49798 47590 88 239 85 247 89 251 81 250 47590 45588 103 238 100 244 98 245 87 246 45588 43771 109 237 108 238 98 241 89 243 43771 42109 106 242 104 236 91 246 86 247 42109 40572 104 246 101 240 88 251 88 256 40572 39133 101 246 101 244 89 254 93 259 39133 37779 99 244 97 247 89 255 93 255 37779 36476 95 245 93 253 89 255 91 253 36476 35162 92 249 91 256 89 254 89 252 35162 33808 91 255 90 255 89 252 88 250 33808 32418 92 255 89 253 87 250 86 248 32418 30978 91 249 88 250 86 249 84 246 30978 29481 91 243 85 248 85 248 82 245 29481 27929 91 241 84 247 85 247 79 247 27929 26326 89 243 84 247 83 246 75 249 26326 24674 83 246 83 248 80 246 70 251 24674 22976 74 246 78 249 75 248 68 254 22976 21228 65 245 69 248 70 250 66 256 21228 19424 58 242 60 245 65 250 62 255 19424 17600 52 237 54 241 59 249 57 251 17600 15851 49 235 47 236 52 247 51 247 15851 14259 46 232 43 232 46 245 45 244 14259 12842 43 230 37 228 36 241 39 242 12842 11579 39 229 34 227 27 235 32 239 11579 10450 36 227 30 226 23 228 24 230 10450 9438 32 225 27 228 21 224 21 221 9438 8532 29 222 24 230 19 221 19 214 8532 7724 25 218 19 230 15 215 18 209 7724 7002 22 214 16 226 13 208 16 205 7002 6347 20 214 14 220 12 199 14 198 6347 5763 20 215 13*217 11*195 13 193 5763 5271 16 211 11*206 10*187 12 187 5271 4890 13 206 9 193 9 178 10 179 4890 4626 10 201 8 186 8 172 8 168 4626 4465 8*198 7 183 7 169 6*154 4465 4373 7*197 6 182 6 168 3*137 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography