DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 02/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.4 - - 54.1 - - 63.4 - - 62.2 - - 53.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -16 - - 190 - - 274 - - 15 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1667 - - 4740 - - 4128 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5632 - - 8055 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6495 - - 9568 - - 8956 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1932 - - 965 - - 1193 - - 1811 - - 3419 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 286 - - 457 - - 174 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 9 - - 16 - - 14 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 065 - - 159 - - 192 - - 197 - - 144 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 10 - - 6 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - 12 - - 33 - - 30 - - 11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2015 - - -2082 - - -1940 - - -2643 - - -4505 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6388 - - 8578 - - 11508 - - 11599 - - 8880 sfcLCL ODpotential -11962 - - -9144 - - -7769 - - -8686 - - -11451 ODpotential blCL 16335 - - 15639 - - 17337 - - 17642 - - 15825 blCL maxRH 88 - - 75 - - 73 - - 90 - - 93 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.4 - - 54.1 - - 63.4 - - 62.2 - - 53.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.9 - - 31.9 - - 28.0 - - 26.6 - - 29.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 53.8 - - 62.8 - - 63.2 - - 57.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.4 - - 31.1 - - 27.2 - - 26.0 - - 29.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -16 - - 190 - - 274 - - 15 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1667 - - 4740 - - 4128 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 54 - - 0 - - 0 - - 60 - - 70 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96626 32 087 27 095 27 079 30 099 18 115 96626 89476 26 096 15 097 17 091 16 096 18 089 89476 83941 13 108 5 113 11 080 11 086 14 066 83941 79332 5 097 5 162 2 075 6 111 4 043 79332 75348 1 174 5 150 2 092 4 105 3 040 75348 71820 5 077 8 192 6 262 5 238 8 258 71820 68634 4 215 12 215 10 253 10 259 6 251 68634 65701 8 258 16 244 17 261 22 264 22 268 65701 62972 20 251 25 249 27 247 34 250 35 254 62972 60336 32 256 34 255 33 246 38 257 38 250 60336 57600 39 258 39 260 41 252 45 252 40 254 57600 54765 47 260 48 254 50 244 52 247 49 255 54765 52053 57 259 53 249 54 246 57 247 58 254 52053 49606 62 255 60 252 63 251 67 251 66 254 49606 47406 67 253 71 252 75 250 76 251 73 256 47406 45399 72 250 77 251 83 248 80 248 79 255 45399 43554 73 247 79 249 83 248 79 250 83 253 43554 41863 72 251 76 249 81 253 80 255 87 252 41863 40318 72 257 76 255 81 257 82 256 88 253 40318 38891 69 259 74 258 78 257 82 261 89 257 38891 37554 65 259 70 257 74 259 85 266 89 260 37554 36268 61 260 67 255 73 261 85 267 88 261 36268 34968 57 261 65 254 70 260 83 267 87 261 34968 33629 55 259 64 255 69 258 77 265 86 262 33629 32254 57 256 63 255 69 255 71 261 83 262 32254 30831 60 254 61 254 67 253 68 257 78 260 30831 29351 62 252 59 253 64 251 68 252 74 256 29351 27817 62 249 58 251 62 250 66 249 73 254 27817 26229 58 244 55 249 61 250 64 248 71 253 26229 24593 51 239 53 245 59 249 62 249 65 252 24593 22912 48 238 51 238 56 246 60 249 61 250 22912 21179 48 238 48 234 53 241 56 244 60 245 21179 19388 48 236 44 234 52 237 53 239 59 242 19388 17575 48 232 43 234 50 234 52 237 55 240 17575 15833 46 230 43 233 46 231 48 237 48 239 15833 14248 40 228 40 231 42 229 42 235 39 236 14248 12834 33 223 36 226 39 227 35 231 32 231 12834 11574 28 215 33 220 34 223 28 226 27 225 11574 10444 24 209 30 216 28*216 22 220 23 219 10444 9433 22 202 27 210 21*204 17*209 20 210 9433 8528 20 194 25 202 18 195 15*200 18 196 8528 7721 19 187 22 193 17 193 15 198 17 182 7721 7000 16 181 20*182 17 191 14 197 17 177 7000 6348 12 171 15*171 16 191 14 196 15 178 6348 5764 8 151 11 160 16 189 14 195 14 182 5764 5272 7 119 8 153 15 189 13 195 12 185 5272 4891 7 099 8 152 15 187 13 195 10 182 4891 4627 7 084 7 152 14 187 12 195 8 173 4627 4465 6*071 7 151 13 187 11 195 6*157 4465 4373 6*065 6 152 11 188 9 195 4*134 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography