DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 01/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.6 - - 59.0 - - 65.0 - - 61.9 - - 51.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -69 - - 70 - - 132 - - -24 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1853 - - 3185 - - 1589 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 6547 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6681 - - 8013 - - 6417 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 85 - - 944 - - 1377 - - 1809 - - 784 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 216 - - 315 - - 60 - - 2 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 5 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 20 - - 12 - - 15 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 278 - - 078 - - 094 - - 067 - - 356 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 20 - - 11 - - 12 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 3 - - -19 - - 36 - - -36 - - -11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4569 - - -5063 - - -5199 - - -5828 - - -6066 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8943 - - 11745 - - 13212 - - 12246 - - 10440 sfcLCL ODpotential -15633 - - -13346 - - -12373 - - -14161 - - -16509 ODpotential blCL 20006 - - 20027 - - 20386 - - 20578 - - 20883 blCL maxRH 57 - - 79 - - 60 - - 36 - - 27 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.6 - - 59.0 - - 65.0 - - 61.9 - - 51.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 21.7 - - 23.4 - - 22.7 - - 24.0 - - 22.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.7 - - 59.5 - - 64.9 - - 64.3 - - 57.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.7 - - 22.2 - - 21.6 - - 23.0 - - 21.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -69 - - 70 - - 132 - - -24 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1853 - - 3185 - - 1589 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96235 14 069 13 017 6 034 14 047 10 080 96235 89277 21 074 18 094 16 092 18 078 22 080 89277 83865 15 063 17 110 19 082 19 081 23 077 83865 79361 17 057 16 095 23 090 20 091 22 083 79361 75457 18 067 16 087 20 082 19 096 17 081 75457 71982 18 075 14 103 16 079 17 092 11 059 71982 68828 19 061 16 106 8 086 12 062 12 034 68828 65931 15 041 17 084 9 106 5 013 13 021 65931 63247 6 022 11 065 8 074 5 228 5 358 63247 60645 5 322 11 067 9 345 10 016 5 030 60645 57946 8 358 12 347 15 306 20 341 16 340 57946 55156 12 283 13 009 13 002 15 340 16 323 55156 52492 18 022 20 002 18 006 15 030 9 312 52492 50090 30 034 17 333 14 346 15 057 9 256 50090 47916 19 047 12 359 15 036 26 060 16 098 47916 45933 20 061 41 054 42 061 39 062 36 085 45933 44126 26 067 67 057 59 062 38 061 41 079 44126 42464 38 065 69 057 57 064 34 067 39 074 42464 40920 54 068 62 061 51 066 30 074 31 070 40920 39476 64 068 60 064 47 067 26 082 22 061 39476 38121 62 066 58 063 44 067 24 086 14 050 38121 36819 58 061 56 061 41 066 21 085 9 036 36819 35505 55 058 52 061 39 065 21 075 6 026 35505 34151 53 057 47 060 38 063 24 064 6 033 34151 32763 50 058 42 060 37 060 28 059 9 053 32763 31327 47 060 37 060 36 057 32 059 16 059 31327 29835 45 063 31 061 35 055 35 060 21 059 29835 28289 43 065 26 060 34 053 36 060 24 059 28289 26686 39 067 22 058 33 053 38 059 28 059 26686 25027 34 068 19 055 30 054 40 059 32 060 25027 23314 27 066 18 053 27 055 41 059 34 062 23314 21543 20 058 17 052 25 057 38 060 33 062 21543 19709 17 043 18 055 23 058 34 060 31 061 19709 17850 16 034 20 059 24 061 29 060 28 062 17850 16063 13 041 23 064 26 066 25 062 24 065 16063 14439 12 059 27 067 30 071 22 068 20 067 14439 12992 16 067 31 070 32 077 22 078 18 074 12992 11703 22 069 34 072 33 082 22 086 17 089 11703 10549 29 068 37 074 31 086 22 091 17 102 10549 9515 36 068 39 076 26 090 22 092 17 109 9515 8590 43 067 39 077 21*091 21 089 19 108 8590 7765 48 065 37 077 17*092 20 084 22 101 7765 7029 50 062 34*077 14 093 19*076 25 093 7029 6364 48 060 29*076 12 093 19*070 28 085 6364 5771 41 056 24 076 11 094 18 067 30 077 5771 5274 29 051 20 078 10 096 16 067 28 070 5274 4891 16 039 17 080 9 098 15 066 23 066 4891 4626 6 353 14 083 8 100 12 065 14 059 4626 4465 6*295 12 085 7 102 10 064 8*047 4465 4373 6*278 9 086 6 102 7 063 3*356 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography