DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 03/03 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 51.2 - - 65.0 - - 70.1 - - 70.3 - - 59.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 271 - - 340 - - 66 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 5200 - - 7551 - - 8423 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 8405 - - 10370 - - 9754 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 10028 - - 12379 - - 13251 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 548 - - 2246 - - 1914 - - 1867 - - 6701 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 469 - - 573 - - 346 - - 5 W* B/S 0 - - 27 - - 37 - - 12 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 016 - - 090 - - 284 - - 291 - - 357 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -15 - - -7 - - -24 - - -19 - - -15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5196 - - -2012 - - -1986 - - -3000 - - -10599 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9571 - - 12040 - - 14366 - - 16252 - - 14975 sfcLCL ODpotential -11407 - - -5448 - - -5642 - - -8595 - - -17507 ODpotential blCL 15781 - - 15476 - - 18021 - - 21846 - - 21882 blCL maxRH 39 - - 40 - - 35 - - 28 - - 21 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 51.2 - - 65.0 - - 70.1 - - 70.3 - - 59.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.0 - - 27.2 - - 21.8 - - 13.6 - - 9.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.2 - - 64.2 - - 69.0 - - 70.9 - - 65.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.7 - - 26.7 - - 21.1 - - 13.0 - - 9.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 271 - - 340 - - 66 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 5200 - - 7551 - - 8423 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96272 10 294 13 263 20 256 19 277 14 302 96272 89100 8 265 9 223 15 249 16 277 14 287 89100 83627 9 283 9 250 14 271 8 290 11 260 83627 79121 8 308 7 287 14 299 12 349 6 306 79121 75268 8 319 8 289 14 295 16 327 16 347 75268 71887 9 332 7 307 9 294 15 302 17 334 71887 68834 18 324 8 319 7 290 14 299 16 316 68834 66022 12 287 13 300 12 269 16 250 19 269 66022 63395 20 279 19 271 20 267 17 249 24 236 63395 60812 29 287 29 282 28 282 23 281 22 262 60812 58086 39 277 45 276 42 280 43 281 40 279 58086 55244 46 280 50 272 52 271 52 270 51 275 55244 52511 53 281 52 269 56 268 56 275 56 273 52511 50026 52 284 52 270 59 270 61 278 62 274 50026 47778 56 287 55 276 62 271 64 276 67 274 47778 45722 60 281 59 280 62 268 66 272 67 273 45722 43827 66 277 62 279 57 268 64 268 64 270 43827 42069 67 278 58 275 51 273 58 268 60 270 42069 40437 58 281 53 271 50 283 55 275 54 278 40437 38930 56 275 49 277 51 289 50 282 46 283 38930 37538 50 270 51 282 52 289 47 288 41 285 37538 36224 46 276 54 283 52 291 51 293 39 294 36224 34916 50 282 53 288 52 294 54 294 36 303 34916 33576 56 277 54 291 51 297 55 295 36 306 33576 32205 60 268 52 291 52 299 55 296 46 299 32205 30792 56 265 49 293 53 300 55 297 54 297 30792 29324 50 264 49 300 54 302 52 298 53 298 29324 27804 46 266 49 302 54 306 48 298 48 301 27804 26232 43 270 45 295 54 311 46 296 44 301 26232 24610 42 271 40 284 53 312 45 296 42 301 24610 22939 43 269 37 279 49 307 44 299 41 301 22939 21211 44 268 34 275 37 297 41 305 40 304 21211 19421 41 267 35 275 29 286 31 304 36 309 19421 17607 38 263 32 280 27 286 23 294 25 301 17607 15868 35 263 24 285 23 296 16 298 18 290 15868 14294 27 267 19 282 17 308 9*317 8 279 14294 12895 19 269 15 281 10*314 6*324 5 221 12895 11641 15 271 11 286 4*311 6 318 5 205 11641 10513 10 288 6*292 3 307 6 312 4 206 10513 9497 8 310 1*348 3 306 6 302 2 225 9497 8584 8 318 4 081 3 299 6 287 2 302 8584 7769 7 321 4 084 3 290 6 281 4 326 7769 7039 6 339 4 088 3 276 6 273 6 335 7039 6377 6 012 4 090 3 264 5 269 8 343 6377 5784 8 040 3 096 3 255 5 266 10 349 5784 5285 12 050 3 104 3 247 5 264 10 353 5285 4898 13 051 3 111 3 242 5 261 10 355 4898 4630 11 038 3 115 3 241 5 261 10 359 4630 4467 8*030 3 120 3 240 5 261 8*358 4467 4374 5*016 2 121 3 238 4 260 6*357 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography