DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 11/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.8 - - 64.9 - - 69.9 - - 67.1 - - 61.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 92 - - 143 - - -4 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1434 - - 4418 - - 4321 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 7485 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6262 - - 9246 - - 9149 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1183 - - 2221 - - 2147 - - 2580 - - 5059 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 214 - - 360 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 15 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 3 - - 7 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 071 - - 141 - - 183 - - 188 - - 039 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 9 - - 5 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - -5 - - 10 - - 13 - - -8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5715 - - -5392 - - -3631 - - -3612 - - -5937 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10090 - - 11655 - - 12878 - - 12761 - - 10312 sfcLCL ODpotential -15138 - - -13453 - - -10926 - - -11670 - - -13606 ODpotential blCL 19512 - - 19715 - - 20172 - - 20819 - - 17981 blCL maxRH 72 - - 86 - - 92 - - 86 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 54.8 - - 64.9 - - 69.9 - - 67.1 - - 61.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 26.5 - - 29.3 - - 28.5 - - 26.6 - - 31.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.2 - - 65.1 - - 69.8 - - 71.0 - - 67.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 25.8 - - 28.6 - - 27.8 - - 25.7 - - 31.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 92 - - 143 - - -4 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1434 - - 4418 - - 4321 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 43 - - 67 - - 44 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96390 40 277 41 277 49 280 45 278 45 276 96390 89313 23 277 29 276 28 282 31 282 32 278 89313 83861 19 288 19 283 20 279 24 283 23 299 83861 79328 15 287 13 289 12 282 15 283 14 319 79328 75423 8 329 5 287 10 303 8 301 10 348 75423 71966 10 334 2 006 3 277 9 300 11 355 71966 68836 13 321 5 340 3 081 5 288 9 336 68836 65973 8 312 13 277 6 308 5 268 9 321 65973 63328 6 278 13 250 11 279 12 253 13 261 63328 60779 19 271 15 232 18 271 16 274 16 259 60779 58116 23 256 20 246 20 251 22 250 18 244 58116 55328 26 251 18 247 23 227 27 250 23 246 55328 52649 29 233 29 224 32 233 36 240 31 241 52649 50229 33 233 37 231 40 231 39 232 34 232 50229 48056 44 239 46 234 46 235 39 233 32 228 48056 46083 54 239 58 236 54 238 45 236 41 231 46083 44283 61 238 64 233 61 232 56 232 52 228 44283 42629 63 234 61 232 59 228 59 230 57 226 42629 41085 62 234 56 234 57 229 57 232 55 227 41085 39631 60 234 57 234 60 233 56 230 54 229 39631 38257 59 237 59 232 61 235 55 229 52 230 38257 36934 57 238 60 230 60 236 54 230 50 227 36934 35599 54 232 58 229 59 234 53 231 50 221 35599 34225 54 221 56 225 61 228 54 228 52 222 34225 32815 54 217 57 222 62 223 54 226 55 223 32815 31356 54 222 56 220 57 222 52 228 57 220 31356 29841 54 229 53 223 56 222 53 226 55 218 29841 28272 51 233 52 227 57 224 55 222 52 218 28272 26650 46 235 51 227 56 228 53 225 47 220 26650 24976 41 232 48 225 51 231 48 228 43 223 24976 23255 38 228 45 225 45 230 42 228 38 224 23255 21483 36 227 43 226 41 227 37 229 34 223 21483 19655 34 224 40 221 37 224 33 228 30 220 19655 17805 30 218 34 212 34 221 29 224 26 215 17805 16032 27 212 27 206 29 215 26 219 22 212 16032 14422 25 211 22 208 22 208 21 211 18 208 14422 12988 24 215 20 214 17 206 15 201 15 201 12988 11709 23 216 21 217 16 206 12 200 12 193 11709 10564 21 213 20 213 16 203 10 204 10 189 10564 9537 18 209 18 207 15*199 8*204 8 186 9537 8617 15 204 16 198 13*195 7*200 6 179 8617 7795 12 197 13 190 10 191 7 196 5 177 7795 7059 10 186 10 182 8 185 7 192 5 188 7059 6391 8 170 8*172 6 178 7 189 5 209 6391 5794 6 147 5*154 5 172 7 186 6 225 5794 5291 5 121 3 130 5 170 7 182 5 234 5291 4902 6 106 2 134 5 170 6 179 3 244 4902 4632 7 094 2 141 4 169 6 173 1 001 4632 4468 7*079 2 148 4 169 4 165 2*038 4468 4374 6*071 2 149 4 170 4 160 3*040 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography