DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - - - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - - - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 60.8 - - 65.6 - - - - - 55.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 55 - - 130 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1052 - - 2336 - - - - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 5938 - - - - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5880 - - 7164 - - - - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1256 - - 1344 - - - - - 2027 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 167 - - 283 - - - - - 4 W* B/S - - - 6 - - 7 - - - - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 5 - - 7 - - - - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 132 - - 171 - - - - - 083 Direction Wind Shear - - - 6 - - 6 - - - - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 3 - - 12 - - - - - -7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4951 - - -4646 - - - - - -4985 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10832 - - 11811 - - - - - 9359 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -13523 - - -11219 - - - - - -13698 ODpotential blCL - - - 19403 - - 18383 - - - - - 18072 blCL maxRH - - - 78 - - 70 - - - - - 73 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - - - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 60.8 - - 65.6 - - - - - 55.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 29.0 - - 29.3 - - - - - 30.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.3 - - 65.7 - - - - - 62.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 27.8 - - 28.6 - - - - - 30.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 55 - - 130 - - - - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1052 - - 2336 - - - - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 13 - - 0 - - - - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 4 - - - - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96318 32 282 27 267 31 284 96318 89206 13 286 21 278 26 318 89206 83710 10 274 16 304 23 283 83710 79139 18 296 19 294 12 283 79139 75184 22 302 20 295 13 318 75184 71719 15 301 17 270 15 310 71719 68633 12 297 10 247 15 290 68633 65821 12 278 12 267 18 256 65821 63227 23 243 26 273 16 265 63227 60699 25 262 33 269 25 272 60699 58037 34 284 34 271 40 257 58037 55256 44 286 36 268 47 253 55256 52588 51 281 46 265 51 257 52588 50176 55 281 54 263 54 258 50176 47999 61 282 54 263 54 257 47999 46010 63 279 56 269 54 263 46010 44176 60 279 59 272 57 265 44176 42470 59 280 56 275 58 267 42470 40876 54 276 54 274 61 265 40876 39390 44 266 51 266 59 264 39390 38010 38 263 45 260 55 266 38010 36700 37 266 39 262 49 272 36700 35390 37 265 35 265 45 272 35390 34043 40 264 36 268 42 269 34043 32660 40 264 36 273 38 269 32660 31228 39 261 38 276 36 268 31228 29740 37 261 39 276 37 264 29740 28197 36 264 38 275 37 259 28197 26601 36 268 37 271 37 259 26601 24953 36 272 36 268 35 263 24953 23255 35 275 37 269 33 269 23255 21500 34 275 37 271 33 272 21500 19681 33 272 36 272 33 271 19681 17832 32 266 34 270 32 269 17832 16053 32 263 31 265 32 268 16053 14433 30 262 30 261 30 268 14433 12989 28 262 30 258 29 267 12989 11701 25 260 29 257 27 265 11701 10548 22 256 27 256 24 262 10548 9515 20 252 23 252 20 255 9515 8592 18 247 18 242 14 241 8592 7771 15 237 13*224 11 220 7771 7037 11 220 9*198 11 203 7037 6373 9*190 8 175 11 193 6373 5781 8*161 7 165 10 186 5781 5283 6 137 7 163 8 176 5283 4897 5 114 6 163 5 155 4897 4629 4 113 6 163 5 118 4629 4467 4 111 6 163 5*094 4467 4373 4 112 5 163 5*083 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography