DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 10/31 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.9 - - 67.8 - - 74.6 - - 70.8 - - 62.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 169 - - 183 - - -2 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2039 - - 5155 - - 2245 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 5848 - - 8175 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6867 - - 9983 - - 7073 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1288 - - 1754 - - 2119 - - 5665 - - 1812 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 294 - - 411 - - 26 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 25 - - 10 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 2 - - 8 - - 6 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 031 - - 233 - - 296 - - 286 - - 029 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 3 - - 9 - - 8 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -13 - - 7 - - -6 - - 6 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7238 - - -7575 - - -6555 - - -8969 - - -10310 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11613 - - 14443 - - 16539 - - 16043 - - 14686 sfcLCL ODpotential -16379 - - -13953 - - -11623 - - -16049 - - -19196 ODpotential blCL 20753 - - 20820 - - 21606 - - 23122 - - 23571 blCL maxRH 47 - - 88 - - 29 - - 35 - - 63 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 54.9 - - 67.8 - - 74.6 - - 70.8 - - 62.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.2 - - 19.9 - - 16.8 - - 15.8 - - 14.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.6 - - 67.6 - - 74.2 - - 75.3 - - 69.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.2 - - 18.9 - - 15.8 - - 14.6 - - 13.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 169 - - 183 - - -2 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2039 - - 5155 - - 2245 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 50 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96960 24 270 24 267 35 253 48 260 49 282 96960 89752 23 272 21 275 23 264 27 271 28 281 89752 84186 19 273 24 276 19 286 22 293 16 293 84186 79552 12 290 17 284 17 299 19 299 13 303 79552 75568 16 309 13 285 16 298 18 300 13 308 75568 72065 15 314 15 303 16 320 15 313 14 328 72065 68900 15 333 15 308 16 328 16 323 19 328 68900 65989 19 344 16 322 16 331 19 333 19 331 65989 63295 24 334 22 332 17 323 16 329 17 340 63295 60691 31 320 26 337 20 336 20 338 26 329 60691 57971 33 300 34 328 27 332 26 338 28 331 57971 55149 31 298 38 313 37 330 39 342 36 344 55149 52468 35 311 40 312 42 327 42 347 42 340 52468 50063 49 311 45 313 42 329 46 344 40 339 50063 47894 58 304 50 312 49 330 46 342 43 353 47894 45916 61 298 51 311 45 323 43 348 49 352 45916 44108 62 295 47 313 39 321 47 353 47 347 44108 42443 63 294 44 319 43 336 51 349 41 348 42443 40888 58 297 51 314 42 336 47 337 44 009 40888 39431 53 294 61 301 42 330 39 337 47 017 39431 38065 45 296 62 295 43 328 38 000 45 024 38065 36762 45 297 60 293 41 333 45 014 44 027 36762 35456 45 291 58 296 40 353 49 026 43 022 35456 34110 44 290 57 301 40 360 55 034 42 024 34110 32727 43 294 54 301 40 004 58 033 40 027 32727 31294 42 295 51 298 41 010 58 033 32 018 31294 29801 41 296 50 295 39 006 48 030 31 004 29801 28251 41 298 48 295 37 345 39 023 30 357 28251 26644 41 300 45 294 43 334 38 010 29 342 26644 24983 40 303 42 295 41 332 40 352 33 336 24983 23271 38 304 38 297 34 321 43 348 37 339 23271 21503 35 305 35 301 34 319 41 359 39 343 21503 19674 29 308 31 303 33 324 35 002 36 352 19674 17822 23 310 26 304 30 327 30 349 30 000 17822 16049 19 302 21 308 26 328 26 347 26 009 16049 14445 17 292 19 315 23 330 21 348 20 014 14445 13017 18 280 17 317 20 333 17 342 14 009 13017 11740 17 274 15 316 17 334 15 333 11 354 11740 10593 15 275 14 312 14*328 13 325 10 341 10593 9561 13 276 13 308 11*316 12 321 10 336 9561 8635 12 272 13 303 10 306 12 317 9 336 8635 7808 10 266 11 298 9 302 11 311 8 337 7808 7068 7 254 8*290 8 296 10*306 7 339 7068 6397 5 235 4*275 7 288 9*300 6 341 6397 5798 2 202 2 235 7 284 8 293 5 341 5798 5293 1 076 2 226 6 280 7 286 5 341 5293 4903 3 055 2 217 6 276 5 277 4 348 4903 4633 4 045 2 213 5 276 4 264 4 007 4633 4468 5*037 2 212 5 274 3 249 4*022 4468 4374 5*031 2 212 4 272 3 232 3*033 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography