DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.0 - - 72.3 - - 77.5 - - 75.6 - - 63.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -8 - - 260 - - 334 - - 63 - - -41 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 5041 - - 7412 - - 6141 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 8266 - - 10252 - - 8100 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 9869 - - 12240 - - 10969 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1316 - - 2027 - - 1723 - - 2398 - - 1027 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 459 - - 567 - - 311 - - 8 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 6 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 11 - - 16 - - 19 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 335 - - 347 - - 342 - - 351 - - 350 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 15 - - 13 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - -7 - - -22 - - -35 - - -17 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7115 - - -6035 - - -5383 - - -6187 - - -10204 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11489 - - 15905 - - 17624 - - 17157 - - 14580 sfcLCL ODpotential -15196 - - -11970 - - -10029 - - -11869 - - -18134 ODpotential blCL 19570 - - 21839 - - 22269 - - 22838 - - 22509 blCL maxRH 82 - - 58 - - 61 - - 62 - - 66 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.0 - - 72.3 - - 77.5 - - 75.6 - - 63.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.6 - - 17.4 - - 14.4 - - 15.0 - - 14.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 59.5 - - 71.6 - - 76.5 - - 76.2 - - 66.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 20.2 - - 16.2 - - 13.7 - - 14.5 - - 14.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -8 - - 260 - - 334 - - 63 - - -41 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 5041 - - 7412 - - 6141 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 26 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96591 17 240 15 260 19 257 25 246 35 270 96591 89369 5 264 2 163 14 238 13 277 12 301 89369 83822 3 124 0 008 5 036 5 297 14 004 83822 79232 8 024 3 050 8 023 5 021 9 344 79232 75262 18 006 7 039 9 023 11 044 14 032 75262 71767 20 004 15 056 14 359 16 024 20 027 71767 68624 15 350 22 053 18 069 7 024 17 004 68624 65716 25 321 30 340 24 040 19 076 17 006 65716 63012 28 320 34 328 40 340 34 004 21 017 63012 60397 37 319 37 332 43 339 46 348 37 347 60397 57683 36 314 39 327 42 332 47 334 47 332 57683 54875 43 320 44 320 43 319 43 326 43 332 54875 52182 58 316 48 314 40 314 39 334 42 347 52182 49754 63 305 46 318 36 326 47 352 54 357 49754 47604 61 316 58 340 58 350 67 355 76 354 47604 45695 82 332 85 338 90 346 85 349 83 350 45695 43960 86 327 87 330 98 338 88 342 73 349 43960 42347 64 325 71 335 87 341 83 346 63 358 42347 40830 54 338 66 348 71 342 82 353 67 009 40830 39396 59 347 71 348 65 344 80 357 76 011 39396 38039 69 346 74 342 66 349 76 359 84 009 38039 36730 74 346 77 341 68 350 71 001 87 007 36730 35408 75 345 78 342 69 350 66 002 85 004 35408 34046 72 339 76 347 69 349 68 003 81 002 34046 32650 67 330 73 352 70 350 72 004 76 001 32650 31208 64 328 71 353 71 351 70 003 72 359 31208 29711 66 333 68 352 68 351 62 000 67 358 29711 28160 65 336 61 347 60 348 54 355 61 357 28160 26556 61 336 53 340 52 343 48 350 53 353 26556 24901 55 334 50 333 49 337 46 346 46 349 24901 23198 52 331 51 327 47 332 42 340 43 344 23198 21443 50 328 51 322 44 328 39 332 42 341 21443 19628 47 327 51 319 42 326 38 328 40 339 19628 17789 44 327 48 320 42 327 38 328 36 338 17789 16024 40 329 44 322 42 330 38 333 32 340 16024 14420 36 332 38 325 39 336 38 339 31 348 14420 12989 32 333 33 329 32*343 35 348 29 359 12989 11711 28 335 28 337 23*348 29*354 23 012 11711 10567 26 338 23*351 18 348 22*356 14 029 10567 9539 24 344 18*003 16 346 20 354 13 038 9539 8617 24 353 15 002 16 344 20 353 16 033 8617 7793 22 000 14 356 16 342 20 352 18 025 7793 7057 20 006 12 350 16 340 20 350 20 017 7057 6389 16 008 11 338 15 338 20 349 23 011 6389 5792 12 008 10 331 15 336 19 348 24 006 5792 5290 8 359 9 325 15 333 19 347 23 003 5290 4900 6 339 8 319 14 332 18 346 20 359 4900 4632 6 319 8 314 14 331 17 345 16 354 4632 4468 5*323 7 313 13 330 16 344 12*350 4468 4374 4*335 6 310 11 329 12 343 7*350 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography