DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/07 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.9 - - 52.3 - - 59.0 - - 55.1 - - 51.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -18 - - 36 - - 87 - - -1 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 330 - - 1652 - - 253 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5158 - - 6480 - - 5081 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 642 - - 1472 - - 2018 - - 3308 - - 2012 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 103 - - 223 - - 0 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 7 - - 22 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 336 - - 279 - - 259 - - 035 - - 053 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - 3 - - -6 - - -3 - - -9 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3304 - - -2682 - - -3959 - - -5669 - - -5352 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7678 - - 7840 - - 10440 - - 10750 - - 9726 sfcLCL ODpotential -14228 - - -11177 - - -11807 - - -13886 - - -13983 ODpotential blCL 18601 - - 16335 - - 18287 - - 18967 - - 18357 blCL maxRH 34 - - 46 - - 61 - - 50 - - 56 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.9 - - 52.3 - - 59.0 - - 55.1 - - 51.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 23.2 - - 33.5 - - 28.8 - - 23.8 - - 24.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.6 - - 53.0 - - 59.4 - - 59.8 - - 58.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.1 - - 32.4 - - 27.5 - - 22.7 - - 24.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -18 - - 36 - - 87 - - -1 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 330 - - 1652 - - 253 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96276 2 088 11 252 11 243 20 274 17 297 96276 89101 4 283 2 258 15 235 17 295 14 317 89101 83565 7 272 4 276 12 258 18 309 22 328 83565 78977 11 269 6 297 8 254 13 278 23 315 78977 75011 19 293 21 308 14 348 6 333 17 298 75011 71498 21 290 28 280 27 319 24 325 24 329 71498 68358 20 309 26 279 35 301 31 314 29 318 68358 65509 36 311 29 287 34 289 26 296 26 307 65509 62871 38 306 32 295 29 289 29 286 33 295 62871 60316 34 305 40 307 37 301 35 289 39 293 60316 57648 42 303 50 294 45 288 44 283 46 287 57648 54873 51 290 49 283 50 282 50 286 52 287 54873 52212 54 302 48 286 55 281 56 284 58 285 52212 49799 58 301 54 292 57 283 60 283 62 285 49799 47624 60 299 59 293 60 283 65 283 65 286 47624 45643 62 299 61 290 62 286 69 283 69 285 45643 43826 63 301 60 293 60 291 63 286 65 288 43826 42151 63 306 57 302 52 298 56 294 60 294 42151 40601 62 314 53 310 52 306 54 303 57 301 40601 39155 63 320 53 319 56 314 57 309 64 313 39155 37802 62 327 57 324 62 317 60 312 72 319 37802 36504 61 332 60 324 66 318 60 313 73 319 36504 35197 60 334 61 325 66 317 59 313 66 317 35197 33855 60 335 61 328 61 316 58 311 59 314 33855 32481 60 337 61 332 55 315 55 310 52 312 32481 31063 59 338 59 334 52 317 51 308 46 310 31063 29587 56 338 56 335 50 320 49 307 43 309 29587 28055 52 338 52 335 48 321 47 306 42 309 28055 26466 50 338 51 335 48 320 46 306 42 308 26466 24823 48 339 48 337 47 319 45 310 42 311 24823 23132 46 338 45 340 44 320 43 315 40 315 23132 21387 44 336 43 343 40 324 39 320 35 317 21387 19581 41 334 39 345 36 330 35 325 31 315 19581 17744 40 334 36 343 34 334 32 331 28 315 17744 15975 38 334 32 336 31 334 30 334 26 318 15975 14363 36 334 30 329 29 332 29 335 24 324 14363 12927 31 336 27 328 27 332 27 338 23 331 12927 11645 25 340 23 329 23 333 23 343 21 340 11645 10499 19 342 17 334 18 332 16 352 17 348 10499 9473 15 347 12 342 12 330 9 359 12 351 9473 8557 11 357 7 355 7 323 4 350 7 344 8557 7742 9 012 3 036 3 294 2 314 4 324 7742 7014 8 033 3 090 2*234 3 284 3 304 7014 6356 9 050 4 104 2*242 4 274 3 292 6356 5768 10 059 4 096 2 266 4 275 1 279 5768 5273 10 057 2*063 2 267 2*284 2 134 5273 4891 8 040 2*295 2 260 1*323 3 103 4891 4627 7 009 3 277 2 255 1 030 3 077 4627 4465 6*349 3 274 2 246 1 059 4*058 4465 4373 5*336 3 270 2 246 2 062 4*050 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography