DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 10/27 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1554z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 60.0 - - 71.0 - - 71.9 - - 64.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 57 - - 178 - - 45 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 256 - - 2860 - - 3563 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 557 - - 2171 - - 557 - - 557 Hcrit BL Top - - - 851 - - 3455 - - 4158 - - 575 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 217 - - 2317 - - 2005 - - 1776 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 99 - - 322 - - 221 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 12 - - 11 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 174 - - 192 - - 192 - - 166 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2323 - - -2997 - - -2695 - - -3897 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3174 - - 6452 - - 6854 - - 4472 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -9323 - - -9246 - - -7442 - - -8607 ODpotential blCL - - - 10174 - - 12701 - - 11600 - - 9182 blCL maxRH - - - 68 - - 85 - - 92 - - 57 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 60.0 - - 71.0 - - 71.9 - - 64.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 48.5 - - 45.0 - - 44.1 - - 47.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 59.6 - - 70.1 - - 71.7 - - 67.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 48.4 - - 44.7 - - 44.0 - - 47.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 57 - - 178 - - 45 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 256 - - 2860 - - 3563 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 41 - - 70 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97008 33 259 39 248 50 272 40 278 97008 89817 20 248 30 250 26 264 31 276 89817 84236 13 236 19 247 17 251 20 257 84236 79606 11 244 13 263 15 250 12 258 79606 75631 12 249 11 261 13 258 11 267 75631 72131 10 244 10 239 16 266 14 264 72131 68972 8 259 10 227 15 240 19 246 68972 66064 11 257 9 236 13 230 18 237 66064 63353 15 258 14 230 16 228 23 227 63353 60726 21 245 17 224 22 224 22 217 60726 57986 23 238 22 233 25 226 24 240 57986 55130 35 232 33 231 37 236 40 239 55130 52395 33 222 46 236 40 234 44 229 52395 49930 42 231 53 238 49 234 45 230 49930 47717 46 229 53 230 58 234 52 229 47717 45711 47 231 54 225 68 230 59 227 45711 43886 52 232 58 223 69 223 62 225 43886 42209 52 230 57 219 64 217 62 224 42209 40653 56 230 55 220 66 217 64 226 40653 39198 58 230 56 219 69 218 67 226 39198 37828 54 225 58 221 69 222 67 224 37828 36501 51 220 59 223 67 224 65 223 36501 35149 50 221 57 222 62 223 63 224 35149 33741 47 225 53 220 59 217 60 223 33741 32279 44 232 50 219 58 207 56 219 32279 30753 44 233 47 220 53 204 58 220 30753 29150 44 226 43 219 51 212 56 222 29150 27467 40 224 41 215 56 224 52 224 27467 25696 38 218 45 217 49 224 49 226 25696 23841 39 213 46 218 38 228 46 231 23841 21909 39 208 42 209 43 227 43 235 21909 19893 37 209 38 210 48 213 37 239 19893 17785 32 217 33 220 41 213 34 238 17785 15633 29 216 27 225 28 209 34 233 15633 13559 25 210 23 224 21 214 31 237 13559 11677 19 207 20 222 21 220 21 238 11677 10013 14 199 18 224 18 223 16 255 10013 8540 13 201 17 222 15 227 13 257 8540 7234 13 206 17 218 15 228 11 251 7234 6078 11 207 15 210 14 224 10 236 6078 5057 11 214 14 201 12*215 10 220 5057 4159 12 215 13*202 12*205 11 208 4159 3366 13 212 14*201 11 197 12 196 3366 2657 13 212 13 196 11 192 12 184 2657 2032 13 210 12 191 11 190 13 177 2032 1510 12 203 12 188 11 188 14 174 1510 1110 11*189 11 187 11 187 14 173 1110 835 9*179 11 185 10 186 13 172 835 669 6 171 10 185 10 186 11*170 669 574 5 171 9 185 8 186 5*166 574 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography