DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/17 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1332z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 84.4 - - 92.2 - - 95.9 - - 86.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 52 - - 175 - - 101 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 628 - - 2861 - - 6649 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 559 - - 2210 - - 4638 - - 559 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1223 - - 3456 - - 7244 - - 577 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 714 - - 4947 - - 3063 - - 1242 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 140 - - 331 - - 366 - - 13 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 251 - - 257 - - 262 - - 182 Direction Wind Shear - - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 1 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2135 - - -1984 - - 185 - - -2413 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 3358 - - 5440 - - 7059 - - 2991 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -4946 - - -3181 - - -622 - - -4921 ODpotential blCL - - - 6169 - - 6637 - - 7866 - - 5498 blCL maxRH - - - 86 - - 80 - - 78 - - 80 maxRH CAPE - - - 1350 - - 1870 - - 1430 - - 3100 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 84.4 - - 92.2 - - 95.9 - - 86.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 71.6 - - 70.4 - - 67.0 - - 74.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 84.1 - - 91.2 - - 95.2 - - 88.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 70.9 - - 69.5 - - 66.3 - - 74.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 52 - - 175 - - 101 - - -23 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 628 - - 2861 - - 6649 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 42 - - 19 - - 13 - - 19 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 16 - - 15 - - 14 - - 19 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98881 22 105 13 121 12 041 19 074 98881 91505 16 086 14 110 8 115 18 039 91505 85834 17 079 11 091 7 091 10 036 85834 81134 16 063 11 056 9 068 8 067 81134 77059 12 070 9 076 7 097 7 062 77059 73435 14 094 10 086 7 142 6 015 73435 70147 12 063 10 069 4 105 1 090 70147 67132 7 029 8 064 3 025 4 098 67132 64347 3 227 3 018 3 305 6 006 64347 61666 2 210 4 304 6 266 12 312 61666 58907 8 208 7 271 7 296 11 290 58907 56092 11 194 13 224 14 265 13 291 56092 53443 10 275 12 250 17 244 15 278 53443 51074 18 267 20 289 19 273 17 277 51074 48946 22 249 24 271 26 282 17 285 48946 47001 24 253 29 259 28 276 19 290 47001 45201 21 259 23 253 27 267 22 283 45201 43522 16 269 19 260 22 264 22 265 43522 41949 17 286 17 254 21 256 22 249 41949 40466 18 294 15 245 21 249 23 242 40466 39061 20 292 16 246 22 250 24 243 39061 37696 22 279 19 248 22 253 24 254 37696 36300 24 265 19 250 23 257 26 263 36300 34846 25 262 20 253 23 259 29 269 34846 33334 24 267 21 256 23 260 31 274 33334 31751 25 265 23 259 25 263 30 276 31751 30085 23 262 22 260 26 267 27 280 30085 28336 21 264 20 266 21 274 23 288 28336 26506 23 271 20 280 20 275 21 286 26506 24594 23 279 20 283 19 272 20 281 24594 22605 21 284 20 280 18 264 19 276 22605 20533 19 271 21 271 19 271 19 270 20533 18377 16 257 21 264 20 284 18 280 18377 16183 13 246 19 264 20 287 17 296 16183 14070 11 233 19 259 19 273 18 301 14070 12149 10 230 18 254 20 267 19 300 12149 10441 8 266 16 253 17 275 17 299 10441 8922 11 284 11 255 14 278 14 298 8922 7569 10 265 8 266 12*276 13 296 7569 6365 10 267 13 280 11*274 13 288 6365 5296 12 279 15 286 11 271 12 276 5296 4353 14 278 15 286 10 266 12 262 4353 3519 19 274 14*281 9 262 12 246 3519 2773 21 266 11*270 9 258 12 228 2773 2114 20 259 10 258 9 255 13 214 2114 1564 17*256 10 256 8 253 13 204 1564 1142 12*251 9 254 8 251 13 198 1142 852 10 250 9 252 8 250 12 193 852 676 9 250 8 252 7 250 10*187 676 576 8 249 7 251 7 249 5*182 576 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography