DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 11/13 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 48.2 - - 56.6 - - 58.9 - - 52.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 31 - - 72 - - 33 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 966 - - 959 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 556 - - 556 - - 557 - - 556 Hcrit BL Top - - - 573 - - 1561 - - 1554 - - 574 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 466 - - 694 - - 609 - - 142 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 32 - - 167 - - 129 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 6 - - 12 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 137 - - 146 - - 161 - - 148 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 2 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - -4 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3535 - - -5108 - - -4815 - - -3347 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4108 - - 6669 - - 6369 - - 3921 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -11029 - - -11650 - - -10731 - - -11310 ODpotential blCL - - - 11602 - - 13211 - - 12285 - - 11884 blCL maxRH - - - 52 - - 100 - - 93 - - 48 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 48.2 - - 56.6 - - 58.9 - - 52.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 32.9 - - 30.0 - - 33.7 - - 37.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 48.3 - - 56.1 - - 58.7 - - 55.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 32.8 - - 29.7 - - 33.3 - - 37.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 31 - - 72 - - 33 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 966 - - 959 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 98 - - 72 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95854 49 259 53 256 54 261 62 263 95854 88907 41 271 35 264 39 261 45 263 88907 83525 34 282 27 267 33 277 33 268 83525 79047 28 294 17 281 27 278 28 281 79047 75181 29 295 20 303 17 288 20 305 75181 71749 25 289 27 310 21 304 18 324 71749 68611 22 304 26 306 24 307 22 324 68611 65706 21 321 25 303 31 307 33 313 65706 63013 24 315 26 297 37 294 35 306 63013 60396 24 310 23 291 35 283 36 297 60396 57644 31 312 24 299 29 291 31 292 57644 54785 39 305 39 317 39 308 44 305 54785 52077 56 295 62 303 60 304 58 308 52077 49649 67 292 70 294 70 299 65 305 49649 47462 75 292 75 294 73 296 73 297 47462 45467 82 294 77 296 76 293 74 291 45467 43633 90 297 82 297 78 296 74 292 43633 41939 97 297 90 298 85 297 81 297 41939 40370 102 294 97 296 92 296 89 298 40370 38907 105 294 99 293 94 293 94 297 38907 37531 105 295 98 292 94 293 97 297 37531 36199 104 296 98 291 95 293 98 297 36199 34842 102 295 98 290 95 292 99 297 34842 33429 100 293 99 289 95 293 97 294 33429 31965 93 292 99 288 92 289 90 290 31965 30436 86 288 97 289 89 292 87 291 30436 28832 80 290 83 289 73 298 71 299 28832 27153 72 297 70 288 61 298 59 302 27153 25401 69 297 62 293 54 300 54 299 25401 23573 62 292 56 299 52 303 50 298 23573 21669 53 291 55 302 49 302 47 302 21669 19681 49 295 55 302 48 301 46 300 19681 17607 46 299 52 299 46 303 45 297 17607 15493 40 304 44 298 46 301 42 293 15493 13457 38 309 38 304 40 291 39 287 13457 11602 38 313 33 311 37 279 36 281 11602 9952 36 318 25 301 34 274 33 271 9952 8487 29 316 18 295 27 268 27 256 8487 7187 24 310 21 288 20 262 24 249 7187 6035 21 299 21 288 15 257 22 240 6035 5016 15 289 16 283 12 248 19 230 5016 4118 9 269 12 260 10 229 17 218 4118 3326 5 257 10 226 12 210 18 210 3326 2621 2 224 9 201 17 194 20 198 2621 2003 3 104 8*172 18*177 22 180 2003 1490 8 087 6*151 14*165 22 172 1490 1098 9 090 6 145 12 161 20 169 1098 829 5 111 5 144 11 160 17 163 829 665 2*135 5 144 10 159 14*160 665 573 1*137 5 143 8 159 6*148 573 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography