DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0654z - - 0955z - - 1001z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 48.1 - - 54.5 - - 56.9 - - 47.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 114 - - 240 - - 83 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1330 - - 2155 - - 2595 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 555 - - 1789 - - 1459 - - 556 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1925 - - 2750 - - 3190 - - 573 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 543 - - 814 - - 1229 - - 194 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 215 - - 324 - - 243 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 6 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 11 - - 10 - - 10 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 004 - - 342 - - 333 - - 356 Direction Wind Shear - - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4694 - - -6767 - - -8288 - - -8499 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6620 - - 9518 - - 11479 - - 9072 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -18809 - - -19417 - - -20599 - - -22335 ODpotential blCL - - - 20734 - - 22167 - - 23789 - - 22908 blCL maxRH - - - 57 - - 60 - - 52 - - 48 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 48.1 - - 54.5 - - 56.9 - - 47.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 21.5 - - 14.8 - - 8.6 - - 10.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 47.3 - - 53.2 - - 56.3 - - 50.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 21.3 - - 14.3 - - 8.1 - - 9.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 114 - - 240 - - 83 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1330 - - 2155 - - 2595 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95745 40 268 44 275 46 269 46 267 95745 88849 28 291 33 287 31 280 27 281 88849 83468 25 306 27 287 26 292 25 303 83468 78958 26 306 25 295 25 300 25 312 78958 75061 24 298 23 303 21 301 21 311 75061 71607 19 303 20 300 20 308 19 308 71607 68467 23 316 21 291 25 304 20 315 68467 65571 28 312 26 303 28 297 26 303 65571 62876 31 302 31 301 33 295 31 298 62876 60262 34 293 35 298 36 290 39 295 60262 57538 41 290 38 301 41 292 48 295 57538 54713 50 298 48 295 51 292 57 293 54713 52004 64 297 53 292 60 289 61 290 52004 49553 66 296 63 293 59 283 60 282 49553 47357 68 301 63 295 55 286 58 282 47357 45363 79 295 70 294 59 291 56 291 45363 43538 79 287 73 288 68 291 65 297 43538 41862 81 292 78 283 72 286 78 295 41862 40312 89 292 76 284 73 285 80 288 40312 38860 89 291 78 290 73 291 75 289 38860 37488 84 289 81 292 74 297 73 298 37488 36157 80 287 82 288 74 298 74 303 36157 34800 80 287 79 284 76 297 74 303 34800 33388 81 287 77 283 74 297 72 299 33388 31923 80 290 76 286 74 293 71 297 31923 30393 80 293 75 285 77 290 69 299 30393 28783 81 294 74 290 73 289 68 297 28783 27094 78 293 70 293 70 291 68 294 27094 25323 72 296 66 292 67 296 66 294 25323 23472 73 300 66 291 65 293 65 295 23472 21546 75 303 66 294 65 292 63 296 21546 19539 75 308 64 304 61 300 57 299 19539 17446 67 308 60 306 59 305 52 308 17446 15308 59 306 55 307 56 307 50 316 15308 13248 53 314 52 314 51 314 47 317 13248 11382 55 325 45 321 42 320 43 313 11382 9738 58 328 37 325 36 324 39 317 9738 8292 44 330 27 325 31 321 39 326 8292 7016 38 333 23 332 24 319 33 332 7016 5890 33 335 21 327 20 322 23 327 5890 4898 22 339 18 328 19 323 18 328 4898 4028 20 348 15 339 15 328 15 338 4028 3261 20 358 13*344 11*332 11 343 3261 2578 17 018 10*341 11*332 9 353 2578 1976 16*016 10 342 11 333 10 358 1976 1474 12*005 10 341 10 333 10 359 1474 1089 11 004 10 342 10 333 10 360 1089 824 11 004 9 342 10 334 10 359 824 664 10 003 9 341 9 334 8*359 664 572 9 002 8 341 8 333 5*356 572 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography