DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/15 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 60.0 - - 67.2 - - 64.4 - - 58.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 1 - - -14 - - -43 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 3822 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1276 - - 1277 - - 1277 - - 1276 Hcrit BL Top - - - 1293 - - 5259 - - 1294 - - 1294 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1291 - - 2169 - - 4746 - - 210 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 17 - - 146 - - 16 - - 8 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 21 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction - - - 225 - - 252 - - 224 - - 191 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 15 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 0 - - 24 - - 1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -3070 - - 652 - - -2764 - - -2096 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4364 - - 4607 - - 4059 - - 3390 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -8621 - - -784 - - -4443 - - -8470 ODpotential blCL - - - 9914 - - 6043 - - 5737 - - 9764 blCL maxRH - - - 69 - - 96 - - 95 - - 86 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 170 - - 80 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 60.0 - - 67.2 - - 64.4 - - 58.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 45.4 - - 51.3 - - 50.9 - - 47.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 60.0 - - 67.8 - - 66.2 - - 61.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 44.6 - - 50.1 - - 50.2 - - 47.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 1 - - -14 - - -43 - - -31 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 16 - - 3822 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 82 - - 81 - - 42 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 7 - - 7 - - 8 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96039 95 251 91 250 102 250 96 253 96039 88976 70 257 62 251 67 248 62 248 88976 83479 45 264 46 263 44 258 44 255 83479 78899 28 261 38 269 39 272 42 276 78899 74997 20 256 28 259 35 261 36 270 74997 71553 19 304 10 258 19 228 21 260 71553 68373 35 310 21 315 12 314 23 296 68373 65416 41 293 40 304 41 303 38 289 65416 62703 31 287 37 299 44 291 37 297 62703 60105 27 305 34 296 39 299 37 308 60105 57376 37 301 40 297 44 302 42 298 57376 54502 45 300 46 299 47 298 41 299 54502 51737 44 312 50 304 51 302 59 302 51737 49253 62 314 61 307 63 305 74 295 49253 47046 74 305 70 303 73 298 76 292 47046 45060 75 301 74 300 70 293 80 292 45060 43252 77 308 78 301 72 299 81 289 43252 41591 100 311 86 298 89 297 75 297 41591 40047 108 305 95 295 92 290 86 307 40047 38603 96 305 101 296 87 292 101 306 38603 37245 90 305 104 297 86 294 100 300 37245 35934 92 304 101 296 87 292 96 299 35934 34600 87 303 96 296 86 291 95 301 34600 33214 74 303 88 296 81 289 94 304 33214 31777 69 301 82 291 78 285 92 304 31777 30277 68 300 81 285 80 285 87 304 30277 28704 66 301 76 287 76 286 77 300 28704 27058 63 301 66 289 71 287 71 291 27058 25341 61 301 57 285 74 289 75 287 25341 23559 58 298 50 282 73 289 72 289 23559 21716 51 293 46 281 62 279 60 295 21716 19803 41 290 41 275 50 271 58 300 19803 17809 35 290 35 267 49 272 55 296 17809 15780 31 284 33 262 43 267 43 286 15780 13831 27 276 33 260 37 264 38 287 13831 12056 24 274 33 264 35 266 42 291 12056 10471 25 274 36 267 36 267 43 293 10471 9056 28 271 38 268 39 267 41 292 9056 7795 29 268 35 265 42 265 41 284 7795 6678 28 271 27 260 40 261 45 271 6678 5690 28 277 25*258 37 257 47 262 5690 4817 29 280 25*256 33 248 43 257 4817 4044 29 278 23 253 29 241 38 251 4044 3349 28 276 22 252 28 238 36 244 3349 2734 25 272 21 251 26 236 33 238 2734 2219 19 264 20 250 24 233 30 232 2219 1824 14 254 19 249 21 231 25 227 1824 1552 9 244 17 249 17 229 18 220 1552 1387 7*236 14 248 13*226 13*213 1387 1293 4*225 10 248 8*224 5*191 1293 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography