DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/19 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0953z - - 1001z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 71.0 - - 67.9 - - 60.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 150 - - -14 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 3178 - - 16 - - 13 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 3208 - - 1277 - - 1276 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 4615 - - 1294 - - 1450 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 1418 - - 4756 - - 2572 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 326 - - 18 - - 19 W* B/S - - - - - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 30 - - 14 - - 15 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 189 - - 180 - - 231 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 16 - - 0 - - 6 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - 10 - - -4 - - 7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -881 - - -3015 - - 157 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 5497 - - 4309 - - 1293 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -4526 - - -3881 - - -461 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 9141 - - 5175 - - 1911 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 95 - - 92 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 71.0 - - 67.9 - - 60.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 51.2 - - 53.2 - - 58.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 70.4 - - 68.3 - - 60.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 50.5 - - 52.8 - - 58.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 150 - - -14 - - 4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 3178 - - 16 - - 13 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 80 - - 69 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 8 - - 9 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97678 27 265 23 263 22 236 97678 90403 21 256 27 260 20 264 90403 84771 19 235 25 247 22 282 84771 80052 19 227 26 247 23 285 80052 75967 11 234 15 237 14 272 75967 72372 2 224 6 200 7 234 72372 69134 3 213 4 222 7 240 69134 66175 4 197 7 235 6 273 66175 63448 7 214 4 161 8 276 63448 60810 15 206 15 224 12 255 60810 58062 19 229 18 218 11 235 58062 55215 15 248 15 237 19 213 55215 52492 26 245 33 249 28 221 52492 50028 50 232 49 243 38 246 50028 47814 56 223 60 231 52 236 47814 45804 56 223 61 221 62 208 45804 43964 61 226 58 212 63 199 43964 42253 68 227 57 213 58 200 42253 40646 75 225 62 215 58 211 40646 39133 75 222 69 215 72 220 39133 37707 71 217 76 214 84 218 37707 36331 68 209 83 213 91 214 36331 34941 69 204 94 212 95 210 34941 33506 68 203 100 208 99 205 33506 32029 63 202 100 207 106 202 32029 30494 58 205 93 208 107 200 30494 28890 56 207 78 201 100 196 28890 27217 57 207 79 194 93 198 27217 25474 59 211 81 195 89 203 25474 23666 61 212 77 201 92 209 23666 21799 61 208 70 211 93 211 21799 19861 64 200 65 214 91 211 19861 17844 63 194 61 212 79 208 17844 15796 60 192 60 210 46 194 15796 13827 57 193 58 213 47 199 13827 12036 56 198 54 214 44 202 12036 10445 54 204 51 212 46 201 10445 9031 50 209 51 212 43 204 9031 7774 48 212 56 212 38 210 7774 6657 48 211 57 207 35 218 6657 5668 44 207 52 199 33 226 5668 4796 35*196 45 192 31 231 4796 4026 33*192 41 189 30 233 4026 3336 32 190 37 187 30 235 3336 2724 31 189 35 185 29 234 2724 2214 30 188 31 184 27 233 2214 1821 29 188 27 182 24 233 1821 1551 26 187 24 181 22*232 1551 1387 23 186 20*180 19*232 1387 1293 17 186 14*180 13 231 1293 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography