DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 54.6 - - 53.7 - - 50.5 - - 41.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 29 - - 173 - - 5 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3566 - - 4039 - - 4298 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1276 - - 3901 - - 1275 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5003 - - 5476 - - 5735 - - 1292 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1315 - - 1097 - - 1904 - - 4326 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 220 - - 368 - - 139 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 31 - - 36 - - 31 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 297 - - 294 - - 298 - - 278 Direction Wind Shear - - - 22 - - 19 - - 19 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 57 - - 46 - - 29 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 245 - - -1376 - - -1922 - - -5519 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 4758 - - 6852 - - 7657 - - 6812 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -5450 - - -6882 - - -13732 - - -19441 ODpotential blCL - - - 10453 - - 12358 - - 19467 - - 20733 blCL maxRH - - - 72 - - 53 - - 51 - - 50 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 54.6 - - 53.7 - - 50.5 - - 41.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 37.9 - - 27.8 - - 21.1 - - 16.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 54.5 - - 53.1 - - 50.6 - - 43.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 36.6 - - 26.7 - - 20.3 - - 15.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 29 - - 173 - - 5 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 3566 - - 4039 - - 4298 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95710 79 243 78 246 68 249 78 242 95710 88707 64 252 66 257 65 260 60 256 88707 83337 43 256 43 245 56 255 48 254 83337 78846 32 235 25 232 39 241 34 255 78846 74908 26 262 30 288 28 251 34 279 74908 71392 39 269 42 282 36 271 44 283 71392 68220 27 241 36 251 39 263 46 269 68220 65320 15 196 31 205 39 250 40 254 65320 62626 21 288 6 130 26 228 27 268 62626 59987 57 291 22 326 8 086 37 299 59987 57200 78 283 78 292 56 305 58 297 57200 54313 82 280 91 280 85 286 76 287 54313 51577 79 282 89 275 89 279 83 282 51577 49118 81 288 88 279 87 281 84 281 49118 46904 89 292 93 282 90 284 90 283 46904 44894 98 287 99 281 96 283 95 280 44894 43062 101 280 100 278 96 281 93 279 43062 41373 100 274 96 277 94 282 92 282 41373 39801 96 271 93 280 97 286 96 284 39801 38326 92 273 100 285 106 287 101 283 38326 36942 99 283 114 285 114 283 104 280 36942 35614 117 289 123 281 118 279 103 277 35614 34270 129 286 125 277 120 277 101 276 34270 32878 130 280 124 277 120 277 102 277 32878 31437 126 274 124 281 119 280 105 279 31437 29934 124 274 125 284 120 284 109 279 29934 28355 126 276 126 285 119 286 110 280 28355 26699 125 276 123 284 116 287 111 282 26699 24962 120 277 120 283 114 289 110 284 24962 23150 116 277 118 284 113 291 107 287 23150 21274 112 279 116 286 112 295 102 291 21274 19333 105 279 108 287 109 297 102 296 19333 17325 88 279 92 286 99 295 98 298 17325 15301 65 276 74 286 87 293 87 297 15301 13373 56 275 66 286 78 295 74 299 13373 11630 55 280 63 286 73 297 66 304 11630 10082 53 285 61 287 68 298 62 308 10082 8708 51 289 59 288 59 298 58 309 8708 7494 48 292 54 290 48 297 54 304 7494 6424 45 293 44 292 38*297 51 299 6424 5481 41*294 38*293 34*297 47 297 5481 4650 37*295 39*294 34 298 43 298 4650 3914 36 296 38 294 33 298 38 298 3914 3253 34 296 38 294 32 298 33 298 3253 2667 32 297 37 294 31 299 28 297 2667 2176 29 298 36 294 29 299 22 295 2176 1799 27 299 33 294 27 299 18 293 1799 1540 24 299 30 295 24 300 13 290 1540 1382 21 300 26 295 21 300 10*286 1382 1291 15 300 19 295 15 300 4*278 1291 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography