DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/17 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 41.4 - - 48.2 - - 48.0 - - 39.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 144 - - 214 - - 13 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2474 - - 3514 - - 3150 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 2647 - - 3592 - - 1275 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 3911 - - 4951 - - 4587 - - 1292 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1080 - - 1064 - - 1294 - - 3081 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 289 - - 371 - - 146 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 13 - - 15 - - 14 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 311 - - 301 - - 299 - - 283 Direction Wind Shear - - - 11 - - 7 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - 7 - - 10 - - 11 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -2556 - - -4097 - - -3951 - - -5107 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 6468 - - 9048 - - 8538 - - 6399 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14674 - - -15104 - - -15318 - - -17813 ODpotential blCL - - - 18585 - - 20055 - - 19905 - - 19105 blCL maxRH - - - 53 - - 52 - - 44 - - 43 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 41.4 - - 48.2 - - 48.0 - - 39.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 17.6 - - 12.9 - - 15.1 - - 16.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 40.6 - - 47.0 - - 48.0 - - 42.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 16.8 - - 11.9 - - 14.4 - - 16.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 144 - - 214 - - 13 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 2474 - - 3514 - - 3150 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96047 65 240 66 246 71 249 66 246 96047 89013 42 243 46 243 44 252 41 254 89013 83536 53 260 46 267 46 275 40 276 83536 78981 47 256 44 262 46 270 42 276 78981 75079 16 240 20 233 29 251 31 271 75079 71598 11 317 6 273 13 257 23 271 71598 68403 40 289 33 295 31 283 36 280 68403 65469 48 269 43 280 39 276 44 278 65469 62766 40 250 41 272 38 278 43 277 62766 60154 31 263 38 277 40 282 43 279 60154 57419 35 279 42 281 46 282 48 284 57419 54567 52 285 52 281 56 283 59 284 54567 51834 63 286 60 280 63 280 67 282 51834 49363 69 288 64 281 64 280 70 282 49363 47143 73 288 65 283 67 278 77 281 47143 45128 78 286 69 284 71 279 79 276 45128 43285 84 282 79 285 79 284 77 274 43285 41594 89 281 89 285 86 287 78 275 41594 40038 94 285 94 285 88 284 83 275 40038 38590 103 289 98 285 85 280 88 274 38590 37226 112 291 103 285 88 282 86 274 37226 35908 115 291 104 286 93 281 85 275 35908 34569 113 292 106 288 94 281 86 276 34569 33179 106 293 109 290 93 283 86 277 33179 31739 99 293 108 290 91 287 85 279 31739 30233 96 291 105 290 90 286 82 279 30233 28652 93 289 101 290 90 286 80 279 28652 26997 89 288 93 289 91 288 81 283 26997 25270 86 289 86 287 87 289 81 286 25270 23471 83 290 82 287 80 287 78 287 23471 21604 81 291 78 287 77 286 73 287 21604 19663 78 291 74 289 73 287 67 287 19663 17643 74 290 69 290 67 289 59 288 17643 15584 71 290 64 291 59 290 52 292 15584 13601 69 293 61 293 54 291 47 294 13601 11801 66 297 58 297 51 294 43 293 11801 10206 62 303 55 301 48 297 41 293 10206 8797 57 307 51 303 46 301 39 295 8797 7554 53 309 46 304 43 303 37 301 7554 6459 47 310 37 304 36 303 34 306 6459 5499 39 310 23*300 25 299 30 307 5499 4658 28*308 16*298 17*294 25 304 4658 3917 18*307 16 299 16*296 21 301 3917 3254 15 309 15 300 15 298 17 299 3254 2667 13 311 15 301 15 299 15 297 2667 2176 12 312 14 302 14 301 13 295 2176 1799 11 313 14 304 13 301 12 294 1799 1539 10 314 13 304 13 303 10 292 1539 1382 10 315 12 305 11 303 7*292 1382 1291 8 316 10 305 8 303 3*283 1291 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography