DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 12/16 Williams 104ft pt35866@39.135,-122.099 SPONSORED BY: Milt Hare RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z - - 1559z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 38.9 - - 41.4 - - 44.9 - - 45.3 - - 43.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - -2 - - 8 - - -1 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 272 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 104 - - 104 - - 104 - - 104 - - 104 Hcrit BL Top 120 - - 120 - - 376 - - 120 - - 120 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 319 - - 321 - - 312 - - 389 - - 367 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 6 - - 53 - - 7 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 6 - - 7 - - 4 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 137 - - 179 - - 126 - - 120 - - 152 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - -1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -75 - - -146 - - -63 - - -212 - - -152 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 195 - - 266 - - 439 - - 332 - - 272 sfcLCL ODpotential -12405 - - -11627 - - -10446 - - -10980 - - -10799 ODpotential blCL 12525 - - 11747 - - 10822 - - 11100 - - 10919 blCL maxRH 100 - - 98 - - 98 - - 97 - - 98 maxRH CAPE 10 - - 10 - - 0 - - 30 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m 38.9 - - 41.4 - - 44.9 - - 45.3 - - 43.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.8 - - 41.0 - - 43.7 - - 44.5 - - 43.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 39.2 - - 41.7 - - 44.9 - - 45.4 - - 45.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 39.1 - - 41.0 - - 43.5 - - 44.4 - - 43.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - -2 - - 8 - - -1 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 272 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 91 - - 91 - - 87 - - 93 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96422 17 041 12 041 15 006 17 033 21 022 96422 89492 10 034 6 047 10 012 14 012 8 350 89492 84120 9 079 7 068 7 047 11 010 7 286 84120 79596 7 069 11 082 5 097 2 355 5 356 79596 75620 5 136 8 043 2 031 3 177 6 356 75620 72074 3 150 2 264 3 338 10 315 9 327 72074 68875 6 325 7 265 10 293 13 291 15 303 68875 65949 17 313 12 271 16 284 17 294 22 285 65949 63261 21 293 18 296 21 290 20 294 24 282 63261 60672 37 285 35 288 31 277 38 281 28 266 60672 57966 43 281 43 287 38 279 43 279 31 264 57966 55139 49 281 53 283 55 282 52 286 43 282 55139 52431 54 279 63 274 65 277 68 286 70 288 52431 50000 57 284 68 273 68 274 73 279 81 282 50000 47811 59 291 64 281 64 276 64 280 77 282 47811 45807 69 300 70 297 75 297 81 296 88 295 45807 43963 85 300 91 301 104 297 104 297 110 296 43963 42261 98 295 105 292 108 287 114 286 118 285 42261 40680 100 292 96 288 94 286 102 277 106 280 40680 39209 87 299 86 297 88 305 104 300 90 293 39209 37834 83 302 83 300 97 310 104 307 85 291 37834 36507 84 299 80 296 96 303 89 298 92 284 36507 35147 85 296 82 293 92 296 85 289 98 282 35147 33724 85 292 83 291 84 297 88 288 100 285 33724 32242 82 292 81 290 82 297 90 289 101 290 32242 30686 75 292 77 290 85 296 90 290 100 293 30686 29045 70 290 73 293 83 296 88 290 82 291 29045 27326 67 288 72 299 75 294 82 292 63 287 27326 25526 68 288 71 298 65 294 69 288 61 285 25526 23646 70 289 62 288 56 294 59 280 60 284 23646 21686 70 291 53 279 53 293 60 281 60 285 21686 19642 67 290 53 282 52 292 62 288 60 286 19642 17508 54 280 47 282 53 290 58 291 57 286 17508 15332 43 273 29 268 50 286 51 292 51 288 15332 13238 32 263 22 263 43 278 41 297 45 290 13238 11334 23 251 12 282 36 272 39 290 39 289 11334 9641 13 251 11 326 27 259 31 279 33 284 9641 8136 3 250 11 335 10 219 20 260 29 280 8136 6802 4 353 7 333 4 126 15 227 26 278 6802 5621 6 341 3 314 3 106 16 214 25 278 5621 4580 8 332 2 229 3 196 17 228 24 277 4580 3667 9 326 2 190 7 224 18 240 23 274 3667 2866 8 326 2 147 8 214 16 249 22 265 2866 2156 5 332 2 117 8 206 12 251 20 251 2156 1534 3 327 2 134 6 208 5 234 18 221 1534 1023 2 219 4 164 5 172 4 168 19 186 1023 635 6 183 8 181 8*140 8 146 20 168 635 371 6 167 10 186 8*127 9 133 15 160 371 212 5 157 8 185 7 126 7 123 10 155 212 120 3*137 6*179 6 125 4*120 6*152 120 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography